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Greg Ip says what a difference US policy under DJT has made for energy independence and for exports. US economic growth is affected only slightly as it exports oil and LNG. Forecasts by Citi revised for the US for economic growth by only 0.1% downward for the Iran War, for the European Union by 0.4%. EU spends 1-2% of GDP to get imports of LNG and oil. US gets 0.2% of GDP for the oil and LNGit exports.  The US is in a strong position with oil policies to increase production and there is also additional supplies from Venezuela that can be added to replace Persian Gulf supplies. Which is why DJT can tell the world and the Europeans, Japan and China to get their own oil and do the job of opening Hormuz because US does not get any of its oil and LNG from Hormuz straits. In 2025 EU gets LNG from Norway 89, US 81, and Russia 37 in billions of cubic meters of imports for total in 2025 of 207 down from 257 total in 2021 because of conservation. US LNG will increase as US sells more LNG to Europe in 2026 and 2027 and reduces the little it imports from Russia. EU is doing a good job of conservation that the US can adopt to export even more to India and Japan replacing some of the supplies from the Persian Gulf nations. ...

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Kagan argues that the U.S should hold Iraq responsible for continuing free elections and democratic process after the American withdrawal, and efforts to prevent sectarian strife and promote reconciliation between the different religious groups and factions. He cites Iraq's lack of aircraft to maintain air sovereignty, and the challenges facing Iraq in preventing use of its territory by terrorist groups and countering Iranian influence. Similiar concerns are expressed by Lt. Gen. Frank Helmick, deputy commander of U.S. forces in Iraq.

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The situation in Iraqi Kurdistan is covered in this WSJ report, with the referendum by the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq set for Sept 25, 2017. This is a region of 5.2 million people in northern Iraq. Adjoining it is a region with a mixed Arab and Kurdish population in oil rich Kirkuk province. The referendum is being held also in these areas as the Kurdish militia the Peshmerga took control of Kirkuk following the hasty withdrawal of the Iraqi army from attacks by Islamic State. Like the other aspects of the long war in Iraq this again complicates the U.S. position. As this report shows Arabs are being displaced in this part of Iraq after moving south as refugees. The Kurdish forces were a reliable ally for the U.S. in the war in 2015-2016, yet the U.S. maintains a policy of fairness towards all communities in Iraq. 

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U.S. Middle East policy in 2015 becomes one of weighing different options without taking sides as the Middle East descends into a messy sectarian conflict between Shiite Iran and its proxy allies with Sunni Arab states, with the remaining currrents of the Arab Spring remaining as background. If someone had asked the question what the world would look like without the U.S. exercizing its leadership role, this provides an answer in one part of the world after years of inaction and skepticism about the U.S. role in the Obama administration.

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John Bolton looks at the continual dithering behaviour of the U.S. president in the Middle East- Iran, Libya, Syria, Iraq in sequence- and provides some insights into the president's behaviour. He says it comes from Obama's distrust of the U.S. role in the world as a positive factor, and a deterministic view of the "arc of history" bending towards outcomes he finds ideologically acceptable. This coincides with a different public perception of America's role in the world, not so much of mistrust and skepticism, as of indifference and focus back on domestic issues following the event of the first war in Iraq and of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The two are different in nature as the public including women may not share the ideological frame of mind of the president that the U.S. is not overall a serious positive factor in the world through the presidencies of TR, Wilson, FDR, Truman, Ike, to Kennedy, Reagan and Clinton, from the Russo-Japanese war, through the First and Second World War, the Berlin Airlift and the Korean War, to the Balkan conflict. Bolton writes at a time when the two perceptions are about to diverge as the U.S. returns to its normal role of positive and constructive engagement with the world....

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The US/Israel Iran ceasefire also allows the DJT administration and its supporters to focus on the goals of reaching new agreements on world trade to return manufacturing to the US, and tackle the issue of massive illegal migraton of estimated 10-15 million during the last administration. The limited goal of removing Iran's nuclear weapons by direct action being achieved, the US steps back to work with China and Russia on other issues of trade agreements to rebuild world trade and US manufacturing, and to take corrective action on illegal migration, and efforts to reduce cost of living, improve working people's lives and communities, health of the American people. It also gives China, India, Russia and the US to reflect on how they can improve the economic conditions of their own people and the people of the world.

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Former Secretary of State James Baker III on the Obama administration's negotiations with Iran for a nuclear deal. He points out the importance of the U.S. making the removal of sanctions gradual manner as Iran fulfills its part of the agreement. Baker says Iran in the past has broken agreements to resume nuclear weapons research, making the verification process and snap back of sanctions critical. Baker does not address the issues related to how effective verification would take place, calling this the work of negotiators to work out the bureaucratic and cumbersome provisions. He also does not address the problems other critics have raised about any future snap back of sanctions because of the reluctance of European countries, saying only that the U.S. should maintain its credible position on the negtiations with its other partners- China, Russia, Germany, France and the UK.

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Israel informed the US 6 hours before military target strikes on Iran. This followed 180 ballistic missiles launched by Iran against Israel. This report says Israel has followed president Biden's advice not to strike oil targets. Biden said if I were the Israelis I would not strike oil targets. 

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Trofimov provides a much needed perspective to the situation in the Middle East in 2015. The title about redrawing borders on ethnic lines is misleading, as the essay's conclusions point to the need for various communities to find a way to live together without ethnic cleansing and intolerance in attitudes. With modernization different communities, Sunni and Shiite, already live together in the larger cities in the Middle East. Trofimov points out that the original intentions of U.S. president Woodrow Wilson were for diversity, and building modern institutions of government as the best way forward. This was not carried out by British and French rulers following struggles for independence against the colonial authorites. Following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918, Britain and France were the dominant powers, and the boundaries were drawn up for Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and other states, under the British-French Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916. Britain and France increased the role of minority groups to maintain their control following independence struggles in Iraq and Syria, a situation which helped Alawites gain control in Syria and Sunnis in Iraq. Shiite rule in todays Iraq has not lessened tensions, and intolerance only creates tensions in the broader region. Which makes redrawing boundaries around ethnic lines in a defacto acceptance of the current situation, not the lasting road to peace in the Middle East. In Iran, Russia with Britain was involved in the partition of parts of Iran into three zones, a Russian zone including Isfahan in the north, a British zone in the south east and a neutral zone in the middle. This happened in 1907 soon after a independence movement helped write a constitution in the 1901-1907 period, showing that many foreign powers were involved in the region, not just Britain and France. The discovery of oil in 1908 by a British company created the question of how to distribute the profits, which led to 70 years of disagreement and tensions in Iran. The resulting tensions exacerbated the conflict between religious authorites and Mossadegh in the early fifties with the fear of Communism, and exacerbated the conflict between the religious authorites and the government under the Shah by 1979 with misuse of oil wealth, ending with his overthrow and the supreme authority of the Ayatollah. Oil has proved to be as divisive, and wasteful of development opportunities, in Iran as it has been in Nigeria and other oil dependent nations. Multiple issues exist in the Middle East, not just the artificial redrawing of boundaries by the French and British, which makes the defacto redrawing of boundaries along ethnic divisions, not the answer but another step with its own dangers, along the path towards peace and economic development in the region. ...

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With the arrival of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, and John Bolton as National Security Adviser, president Trump finds support for his own instincts on foreign policy. On North Korea, Iran, and China, president Trump takes charge of foreign policy favoring strong bargaining pressure to achieve foreign policy  goals in trade, containing nuclear weapons and reducing conflicts. He sees the peace talks with North Korea as moving in the right direction with his efforts, and makes the decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 on May 8, 2018, as he leaves the door open for new negotiations with Iran for a better deal that achieves U.S. goals.

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Israel's prime minister Netayahu and U.S. president Obama move further apart with serious disagreement on when to impose further sanctions on Iran for nuclear weapons development. Netanyahu accepts an invitation from Speaker Boehner to address the U.S. Congress in 2015. Republicans face a serious divide with the U.S. president with serious disagreements in domestic policy, including immigration, taxes, and ways of addressing increasing inequality.

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European preparations for an embargo on Iranian oi. Development of technologies to develop nuclear weapons advances in Iran, causing concern that leads to action by the U.S. and the E.U.

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Countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal are severely affected by the war in Persian Gulf region in other ways that access to oil and fertilizer supplies. They are affected when the Gulf economy collapses and expatriate workers are laid off or return. The situation is dire in these countties because as the DW.com says remittances exceed exports in the case of Pakistan. Is such a model viable asks DW.com. All these countries are also affected by internal strife, with new governments in place in Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka after protests over economic conditions and jobs. The entire Middle East model for Gulf countries including Saudi, Iran are also facing a new situation as the Western countries, US and EU and Asia shift to nuclear energy, solar energy and find ways to conserve at an accelerated pace so that there will be less dependence on fossil fuels. Recently India announced on its national television channel that one third of peak demand is already being met by solar energy. India's PM Modi says in rallies across the country that he would make it possible for households to have zero electric bills because of solar panels on homes. Germany and Japan are further along on this path to create a renewable energy reliance and phasing out fossil fuels. ...

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Idea that control over Straits of Hormuz is US goal is repudiated by DJT in his Address to the Nation, yet it finds its way into the media. There is no war for US to win, it is only about removing a nuclear and ballistic missile threat, nothing to do with oil. MAGA base, US public has rejected these wars in remote countries of the Middle East, when reindustrialization is the goal, not repeating the mistakes of Bush and Obama who by fighting these wars for 8 years in Iraq wasted resources and pursued policies that deindustrialized the Nation and weakened the heartland of America. Beyond limiting the threat of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles that could hit US, Europe and other nations there is no other goal. US and DJT repeatedly pointed out that being self sufficient it does not need Iranian or Iraqi or Saudi oil. The president even said in his Address that the US wanted to supply other countries with oil as it produced more than Saudi and Russia combined, and not counting Venezuelan oil production ramp up expected by 3-4 million barrels a day. Behind this is the known fact that China and Japan get 90% of their imports from Hormuz Straits, so it is up to these nations and India and Britain to find solutions to Hormuz not the US. ...

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The Iraqi army moves against Kurdish Peshmerga in northern Iraq after taking Raqqa from ISIS and Kirkuk from the Kurds. The fragile peace between the autonomous Kurdish region and the central government in Iraq broke down after the Kurdistan autonomous government held a referendum in all Kurdish controlled regions in Iraq, including parts taken from ISIS. The Kurds held the referendum for an independent state on Sept 25, 2017. This puts the U.S. in a difficult position as it supported the Kurds against ISIS, when the Iraqi army was disorganized in 2015-2016. Turkey also opposes the Kurds move for an independent state that could include parts of Turkey.

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Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren, describes Iran's efforts to make weapons grade nuclear material, escalating the enrichment process from 3.5% to 20%. He says Iran now has 225 pounds of 20% uranium and 11,000 pounds of 3.5%, enough for 5 nuclear bombs, and points out that 20% uranium can be enhanced to weapons grade in weeks. During the initial negotiations the P5+1 nations demanded suspension of enrichment acitivites at a time when the enrichment process was at 3.5%, and transfer of stockpiles abroad. As negotiations dragged on Iran escalated to 20% enrichment. current demands of the P5+1 are for cessation of 20% enrichment and removal of the 20% stockpile, and closing the facility at Qom, as a first step. This has been rejected by Iran. In this op-ed Oren says Israel alerted the world about the Iranian nuclear program 20 years ago, and as this has continued to what it is today, Israel's view is that much of that time was wasted and the window for international efforts to cease and dismantle Iran's nuclear program is almost shut. ...

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The lack of U.S. leadership and slow response by the Obama administration to the rapidly developing situation in the region risks spillover effects from Syria to affect the entire Middle East. Russia's stakes are minimal in the region because it is simply trying to retain some of its old influence in the region, yet it is having an outsized influence in the region through its early military assistance to the Assad regime. The stakes are much higher for the U.S. because of the decade spent and resources invested in Iraq, higher for Iraq with its need for civil harmony between Shiite and Sunni communities, for Turkey with its large Kurdish minority and flow of refugees from the border with Syria, for Saudi Arabia as a defender of Sunni interests. Without active U.S. leadership the situation is allowed to drift and young people of the Free Syrian Army are basically taking on the bulk of the role of resolving the situation. France's Sarkozy and Britain's Cameron offered this kind of leadership in Libya as Libya's young people struggled to resolve the situation there. ...

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Bill Keller of the NYT points out that getting Syria right means getting over the obsession over what went wrong in Iraq and looking objectively at the situation in Syria. He points to the failure of president Obama in grasping what the Assad regime has done to Syria, the refugees in Jordan, the use of artillery and air raids on civilian population, and inviting the support by fundmentalist Islamic countries such as Saudi Arabia in the absence of U.S. and European support, making delay after delay by president Obama leading to a paralysis in response. Leaving the question for the future which was a worse U.S. response- the hasty action in Iraq or the paralysis in Syria?

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EIA says half of the benefit of higher fuel efficiency standards for Automobiles 2010-2020 in US was lost because of SUV's and the incentivizing of SUV's in the 2006 CAFE standards have made things worse. The first SUV's came in the 1980's. By 2004 SUV's made up half of car sales and by 2025 outsold cars 2 to 1. What if we took all SUV's and large cars off the roads, or even some of these SUV's by deincentivizing of SUV's in the US CAFE corporate fuel efficiency standards? What would be the savings in crude oil and in carbon footprint? Would it be about the same as releasing an additional 400 million barrels of oil into the markets in addition to the 400 million barrels that are now released through EIA and member countries? This New Yorker essay touches on this idea. During the Iran war the volatile Middle East as a source of oil supplies is a major problem for countries. Some are rationing supplies and in one country 40 million children are not going to school for 2 weeks starting this week because of the sources of oil are so precarious, government offices will only have half of the employees, the rest working from home (almost like Covid pandemic). Many other countries face that situation. The International Energy Agency recently reported that, if “SUVs were an individual country, they would rank sixth in the world for absolute emissions in 2021, emitting over 900 million tonnes of CO2.” The agency says governments must redesign their CAFE standards and their policies so that it would reduce S.U.V. sales, tax gas guzzling vehicles. EIA cites governments in the EU doing this- “Some governments have already started introducing relevant measures, such as France and Germany, which have put a tax on large and high-emissions cars.” Within SUV's also there is an opportunity to reduce the size and make more efficient space utilization designs. Small savings also add up. One has to realize that the current freedom to use energy freely in places like the US with self sufficiency in oil comes with a sense of responsibility for using it wisely so that it can be exported to cut the trade deficit, precisely what the president is doing with India, to cut a trade deficit of $58 billion before it gets to $100 billion. Section 301 is already in place for investigations by the US of 18 countries for a new basis to use tariffs after the Supreme Court decision. A similar approach is taken with EU for hundreds of billions of reductions in trade deficit that will only strengthen the US dollar and the US economy in the long run , and be good for stock markets and jobs as it reduces oil prices and increases the manufacturing capacity/cost for the Nation. Europe, India and China can do the same. Remember that in 2010 SUV's made up 17% of total world sales, and by 2025 SUV's made up 46% of world vehicle sales. This would create another 400 million barrels for the oil markets, which would triple what was released through EIA  this week to 1.2 billion barrels and this would create 120 days of supply replacement for the 10 million b/d lost from Straits of Hormuz, and effectively end the Iran War as it would be clear that prices can be kept low even in the $50's. Essentially buying time till the SU can get more production in Venezuela and other parts of the world to replace much of the Middle Eastern oil that is ending up in a quagmire. This is the best way for the US and Europe, India, China to ensure jobs growth, economic growth with low cost crude oil in the $50 range and ensure much of the poorer countries like Egypt and Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, have access to oil at prices they can afford and eliminate poverty. ...

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The Editorial Board of the WSJ says in this editorial that president Trump showed his negotiating skills to arrange the oil deal with the Saudis and Russia for cuts in production of 9.7 million barrels a day, including cuts by non OPEC G20 countries. The drop in U.S. production, cuts by Canada and the effects of sanctions on Venezuela and Iran should take out about 20 million barrels a day. Demand has fallen by 30 million barrels a day from the pandemic. This should help 11 million workers in the U.S. oil industry.

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Experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program describe what to look for and in what time frame in the 2012 negotiations between Iran and the U.S. and other European countries in Istanbul, Turkey over Iran's nuclear program.

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A slight shift in American opinion favoring a deal with Iran is shown in a WSJ/NBC poll in July 2015 compared to the poll in April 2015. Support for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran remains stable at 36% in both polls, the opposed drops by 6 percentage points to 17% from 23%, and the percentage of people who say they do not know enough to formulate an opinion goes up to 46% from 40%. The intricacies of a nuclear technology deal and the sites involved lead to a high percentage of don't know enough to give an opinion. Factors hindering a deal include inspection of military sites, and Iranian intentions. Factors favoring reaching a deal now is the risk that this would mean Iran would go back into isolation and the opportunity to work with moderates might be lost. The Rouhani administration was an effort by voters to elect a government that could ease or remove sanctions to improve the economy and living conditions- its failure would lead to Iran losing an opportunity to open up to the world. The pressure from the U.S. Congress and Israel served to push for a verifiable and effective agreement to control development of nuclear technology for weapons systems. Behavioural factors involved are the very young population in Iran which has no memories about the period before the revolution in 1979- 70% of the population of 74 million are people under the age of 35. This group is eager for ties to the outside and could change Iran's outlook and policies int the future towards moderation. Risks in not reaching a deal also include the possibility of the Saudis developing nuclear technology and nuclear proliferation. Winners from a deal because of the flow of Iranian oil to world markets and a period of extended low oil prices are the U.S., Europe, China and India. Germany gains new markets to replace the growth in the Russian market after sanctions. Lifting of an arms embargo, an added risk in the last days of the talks, would be mitigated by making the lifting of that embargo very gradual....

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This piece by Cambanis in the NYT shows how even Syrian Free Army soldiers have switched sides to join the ISIS extremist Sunni militia. Sheikh Hassan a Syrian Free Army brigade leader describes the case of Mustafa who switches sides for a higher salary wih ISIS. ISIS gave Mustafa triple his salary at the Free Syrian Army - increasing it to $400. In a region with many unemployed youth the ISIS pays salaries for joining, and taps Sunni frustrations in Iraq, with money raising and financing capabilities a critical part of the organization's capabilities. A piece by Nordland shows how the ISIS's crude but effective money raising uses taxes and other illicit ways to increase revenues. This provides a unique insight into what is happening in Iraq and Syria after the failure of the U.S. to effecively support the Free Syrian Army and moderate groups in Syria, the premature withdrawal from Iraq, and the frustrations of Sunnis built up under the government of prime minister Maliki openly favoring Shiites. This has provided an opening for extremist groups in the region, and created more tangles for the Obama administration as its policies to distance itself from the region have not let it extricate itself from the U.S.'s important role in the region. The vacuum created by these policies has been filled by extremist organizations and created about 2 million refugees- a large humanitarian crisis and undone years of effort by U.S. soldiers in Iraq. ...

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The lessons from Italy, the epicenter now of the coronavirus pandemic, are clear- act early and decisively, impose quarantines and lockdown quickly to prevent intermingling. These steps need to be put early, with absolute clarity, and strictly enforced. This report in the NYT shows how decisive action early is the only way to prevent the crisis from becoming a large one that threatens the health system and millions. German states such as Bavaria and others now have a $25,000 euro and some have jail time. Singapore has jail time and fines for violating the stay home quarantine orders which it imposes after contact tracing. Taiwan has similar measures. Enforcement and strict control are part of the tools that have worked in these places and in China, South Korea.  Britain has still to close flights from Iran, Italy, which The Times reports on March 20 are still landing at Heathrow. This is after the U.S. weeks earlier banned flights from China, Iran, Italy, and last week from Europe after EU nations failed to take action early.  ...

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Rumsfeld talks in this interview about the conflict between the US State and Defense Departments about a post war Iraq that delayed decisions and gave time for the Iraqi insurgency to develop. Colin Powell at the State Department, and Condoleeza Rice as National Security Advisor, let Ian Bremmer continue for too long as the sole authority in Iraq operating from one of Hussein's palaces, giving the feeling of a foreign occupation force and fueling insurgency. Rumsfeld favored letting one of the Iraqi exiles provide interim leadership, wheras Powell felt the exiles did not have the legitimacy in Iraq that was needed. The result was indecision that left Bremmer in charge for too long. Asked why Rumsfeld did not fire Bremmer, he says Bremmer acted as the Presidential envoy. His criticism of Rice and Powell centers on their not letting the President decide by providing the options and the pros and the cons. He says the surge was more psychological in its impact and less significant than its made out to be, because the Anbar Awakening had already led Sunnis to move away from Al Quaeda. The insurgency came in stages, first with the Baathists and thugs from the old regime, then the foreign elements and Al Quaeda through Damascus, and then the Mohtada Sadr Shiites, it was not a single enemy or a single event. The memoir is not a defense of the Bush Presidency or decisions, but takes the kind of look at events that is reminiscent of Dean Acheson for the events of the Cold War under president Harry Truman....