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How crude oil flows are affected by the narrow waterway Straits of Hormuz if blocked, Kuwait's lack of storage, Iraqi production going from 4.3 million barrels a day to 1.3 million. China could use more coal, it has 300 days of oil inventory, US is self sufficient. Asia will have problems- India, Japan and South Korea.  Europe also faces a shortage of oil supplies. How will this be tackled? 

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The US president tells the King it was special that all members of Congress stood up for a standing ovation many times- something that in recent years rarely happens. The King "has shown his class" in the last 24 hours says BBC, it is now up to Starmer and the British government, DJT and the Americans to make it count. Notable DJT sharing that the King agreed with him that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. The King also talked about the NATO alliance and its role in keeping the peace for 80 years in the world. In the King's words-  "the international rules that have allowed us to trade and have kept power in balance for 80 years." Adding that the US should not go it alone- "The challenges we face are too great for any one nation to bear alone." However the King is only doing what his is role as monarch to present British interests, and it is important to recall that Britain's interests were once colonial interests around the world, that opposition to these colonial interests led to the Declaration of Independence by Jefferson and Washington in 1776. And caution in Washington's advice to America in Annual messages when it comes to these Empires. Right after 1945 when NATO was created- as it was throughout its Empire in Asia  in 1750-1950- Britain opposed Russia and was the most vocal opponent of Soviet Russia in 1950's and saw NATO in this mission. Times have changed with the emergence of Russia after 1990, China in 1950 and again in 1990's, and America as a world power is best following Washington's advice not to get involved in or inherit the British anti-Russian attitude as it has interests in the Western hemisphere and around the world that require cooperation with other world powers such as Russia, China, India, and Germany to create a peaceful world  and not the kind we have today that puts Russia and China on the wrong side just for opposition, as no powers have any interest in drug and people trafficking in the western hemisphere form places like Mexico and Venezuela, or creating small wars in other parts of the world. A situation NATO as seen by Britain in 1950 as Anti-Russian creates for the US- Lord Hastings Ismay first Secretary General of NATO set British goal for NATO (not the US interests or consistent with George Washington's advice to distance from) in 1949 as "Keep the Russian Out, the US Involved, and the Germans Down." ...

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As an outside with no political experience Park won 3 terms as mayor of Seoul. He was a prominent civil rights lawyer, helping win South Korea's first sexual harassment case in early 1990's. Now he is dead after taking his life in a situation where a former secretary filed a sexual misconduct case at a Seoul police precinct 2 days earlier, making all of Seoul pause in disbelief at what has happened. As a human rights lawyer who struggled during the dictatorships in the 1980's he will be mourned as someone with so much potential for South Korea, say people who watched him over 30 years. 

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US-China relations shift from adversarial to peaceful cooperation after the Busan meeting in South Korea in October 2025 between Chinese leaders Xi and Wang Yi. This is how the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC presented the meeting- a turning point in relations. In April 2026, 6 months later it appears that this is certainly the case as shown in the WSJ Analysis in the adjoining article. Both leaders have decided that they will avoid any actions that disrupt peaceful cooperation and maintain friendly relations in anticipation of the May 14-15 visit to Beijing of DJT which will be followed by a trip by Xi and Wang Yi, He Lifeng to the US. The spirit of cooperation is reflected in this statement- "China will host APEC 2026, and the U.S. the G20 summit next year. The two sides can support each other in making both summits productive to promote world economic growth and improve global economic governance. President Trump said that it is a great honor to meet President Xi. China is a great country. President Xi is a well respected great leader, and has been my good friend for many years. We have always got along well. The United States and China have always had a fantastic relationship, and it will be even better. We will make both China and the U.S. even better. China is the biggest partner of the U.S. Together, our two countries can get many great things done for the world and have many years of success. China will host APEC 2026, and the U.S. will host the G20 summit next year. We expect both to be successful." ...

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Krugman points out that even though the economy has the lowest unemployment and inflation has dropped significantly, wages of working class Americans are up significantly, there is a huge infrastructure building effort, and investment in Make in America, there appears to be a disconnect when people are asked about the economy. Many tend to say they are personally better off yet the economy is not doing so well which is not reflected in  what is happening on the ground. Part of the problem could be the pandemic and the economic difficulties of the last three years that is only now gradually changing for the better and that the benefits of the better economy have not reached all people. Part of it is also a reflection of culture and other wars where opinion on social issues is transferred to the economy whether it is real or not. The extent of the culture wars has grown and sometimes been stoked for personal or party interest to affect the true civic responsibilities of the people to offer their best judgement based on careful understanding and reflection. ...

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European Travel Information and Authorization System  ETIAS fee $24. ETIAS for travel to Europe starts late 2026. Visa free countries will still need visitors to get ETIAS a form of travel clearance. This means US, Japanese, Canadian and UK visitors to Europe will need to apply online before entering European countries. The authorization will be valid for 3 years or until the passport expires whatever comes first. Travelers may not stay more than 90 days in a 180 day period. Children under 18 and adults over 70 years will be exempt from the fee. Once one enters personal details the authorization is digital and received in minutes.

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Reggio Emilia and support for early childhood education attracts Princess Kate to make a visit to Italy in May 2026.  "Ciao Kate," nice public greeting for Kate in Reggio Emilia, Italy, welcoming her after cancer diagnosis and recovery.  This is the town where the Italian tricolor flag originated. It is also a town with a strong tradition of support for public services and education. Kate wants to create a global conversation on early childhood education. This is an important idea and part of the concepts behind the Movement for Global Literacy in Lyrarc. Literacy for a child in China is not much different in its basic idea from that of a child in Britain, India, Italy or America. And reading, knowledge of the outside world forms a critical part of this early education, little concepts that are built into larger concepts of the world.

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The first results of India's new vaccine policy with vaccine supplies and vaccination drive entirely run by the federal government are now showing up. Early reports are for vaccine supplies of 135 million doses in July for advance planning, and 250 million vaccine doses in August. Ramped up manufacturing of vaccines in India with the entire pharmaceutical industry in India taking part is part of the new policy. Collaboration with US manufacturing and research partners is also part of the new policy being implemented.

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The Brexit issues and Tory leaders talking to their supporters has and effect on French British relations. Macron comments on UK Foreign Secretary and likely prime minister Liz Truss's recent remarks that "the jury is out" on whether the French president Macron was "friend or foe." Macron says "its not good to lose your bearings too much." He says in answering the same question "I would not hesitate for a second. France is a friend of the British people." It all goes to show how British relations with France have been affected under the Conservatives party.

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Navdeep Puri, India's former ambassador to Egypt, discusses the importance of India's relationship with the United Arab Emirates and particularly its relationship with the leaders of Abu Dhabi. Indian prime minister Modi has visited UAE 3 times and has built a close relationship with Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ). Interviews with MBZ in the NYT and indepth articles show that MBZ is a different leader in this part of the Arab world who has inbuilt in his nature both old Arab values and tradition that he respects with the modern world that he saw in Britain, and is simply striking out for a different path that sees modernity in the British way as a way forward for the entire region. MBZ is also seen as a mentor for Mohamad bin Salman of the Saudi country. MBS is also striking out  for a different path for the region. Saudis are financing development agenda for Egypt by helping rescue the Egyptian economy with investment and assistance at a critical time of the pandemic. This also extends to aid and assistance to Turkey. For MBZ and MBS the British approach to modernity and the American approach to modernity, with science, technology and both respecting and modernizing traditional ways, offer a way forward for the entire Gulf region. When these countries look around them they see India as also striking out in the same or similar direction. Both Arab and Indian traditions are being seen in a respectful way, without ever losing sight of the development goals and fully accepting the modernity that Britain has brought not just to Asia but long before that to Europe and the US. This may be the true foundation of the new relationship of the Gulf region with India - seeking a common path to modernity and development for all the people of their countries after the failures of the last 75 years. ...

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Antonia Romeo new UK Cabinet Secretary Feb 2026-  precocious yet "warm and forthright"  in civil service interactions active as Consul General and at Home Ministry. After Westminster school and Oxford University, and a stint working at Oliver Wyman in management consulting, she joined the civil service. Becoming permanent secretary at the Department for International Development and the MoJ, and spent time as consul general in New York. She spent time with immigration and boat migrant issues at the Home Ministry, and is now keenly aware of the issues facing Britain. That bit of precociousness is needed at this time to set out a plan of action and get results for Starmer and his team. Based on what Labour stands for building on the skills of everyone in Labour not just those who go by labels as centrists, left and right, false labels that ignore that common sense means something else entirely. Getting results means addressing tough issues for the economy, cost of living, housing, through honesty, resilience, hard work and dedication. ...

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Pulling back from the surge in both ICE agents patrolling Minneapolis streets and protestors going to the streets in a confrontation Border head Homan says this was not the right way of going about law enforcement. Homan said “I do not want to hear that everything that’s been done here is perfect." Instead of street sweep patrols by Border Patrol agents Border head Homan says after meeting with Atty Gen. Ellison of Minnesota, ICE will get people charged with crimes from the jails. In earlier remarks by Kristi Noem, Homeland Security Secretary, she had mentioned that Minnesota state and local authorites were not cooperating and releasing people from the jails to the streets making ICE job more difficult. The Minnesota local authorites now agreed to cooperation with federal immigration authorites for better law enforcement. Minnesota is unique because the governor of the state and mayor are Democrats, and governor Walz was the VP candidate of Kamala Harris for Democrats, with a certain amount of belligerant opposition in that state to DJT and Homan. The lack of cooperation and the antipathy between the federal and local officials carried over, and more and more Border Patrol and immigration personnel were sent to the state reaching 3000. Compared to other Democrat states or cities- California and Tennessee, Washington DC, where initially there was criticism in the state of ICE Minnesota turned out to be different. The president was critical of the way Somali immigrants were settled in the state and the reported fraud for state benefits. The presence of ICE and Border Patrol under Bovino on Minneapolis streets led to more protests and confrontation. The DJT administration and Congress, other states are learning from this experience. ...

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Putin's Russia year end QA sessions- "Direct Line" Marathon of 3 million questions. Two from the BBC. Answering the BBC Putin said "if you don't cheat us like you cheated us with Nato's eastward expansion", there would be no more war activity from Russia. Putin believes NATO and European leaders had promised no expansion to Gorbachev before the Soviet Union collapsed. Archives from 1950 show that NATO was formed as Soviets expanded after World War II. At the time Truman took up defense of Turkey and Greece from Soviet expansion. As Eastern Europe became part of the Soviet sphere the situation went on from 1950 to 1990 of 40 years with regional wars in Korea, Vietnam. The Russian leaders including Putin who set Russia on the path to economic recovery had a deep sense of loss of respect as Russia was treated as another European country by Netherlands, Britain and France, Germany former colonial powers that had difficult relations with Russia. It is this deep sense of loss of respect that these leaders felt after the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia suffered economic and political decline from 1990 to 2000 which was reversed by decades of economic growth. This was a period of economic growth in China. As China asserted itself in Hong Kong, Russia pushed back in Crimea and Ukraine regions that had long ties with Russia of language and culture. Had western leaders disbanded NATO and formed a new alliance with new goals with a vision for peaceful coexistence with Russia in the east the situation could have turned to be different. In 2025 the European powers Germany, France and Britain are not willing to see Russia gain points from the outright invasion of Ukraine presenting new obstacles to a peaceful settlement. Ukrainian sentiment is also a factor as giving parts of Donetsk would be unpopular.  ...

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Abdulrazak Gurnah, a native of Zanzibar and Tanzania writing in English wins the 2021 Nobel Prize for Literature. His prose has inflections of Arabic, Swahili and German. He left Zanzibar at age 18 years after a violent uprising in 1964. In "Admiring Silence" he reflects on the experience of migrant refugees caught betwen two cultures and remaining silent about their true feelings. The prize is given at a time of migrants reaching Europe in large numbers from Africa and the Arab countries of North Africa to Germany.

The chair of the Nobel Committee Anders Olsson says about Gurnah- "He ha consistently and with great compassion penetrated the effects of colonialism in East Africa, and its effects on the lives of uprooted and migrating individuals."

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Where do you place a winner of the Democratic primary in Maine, Graham Plattner, an oyster farmer who dropped out of college at George Washington University, served briefly in the Middle East wars of Bush and Obama, and had PTSD. Is he working class, middle working class or is he from a downwardly mobile professional class considering he has parents who are well educated and father a prominent lawyer in Maine? Plattner easily defeated a 3 term governor of Maine with his average working class demeanor and language. He is for universal health care, (Medicare for All) universal child care, affordable housing, affordable college. Politics in the US has been moving away from the simple divisions before 1950 created by the Industrial Revolution- the workers in factories and the owners of capital allied with the professional middle class. The few owners of capital mostly college educated allied with people from the non college educated workers in factories who are conservative in their values and beliefs and on the other side the college educated professional middle class now downwardly mobile because of the many recessions and high unemployment from frequent financial crises, with college costing $80,000 a year putting them in deep debt. There is today in the WSJ a story of a professional worker who at $194,000 a year salary is not able to payoff $15000 debt which owners of capital have set at 26% interest and is in downward spiral. Some of this comes from large college and other debt. There is says WSJ Analysis $1.25 trillion in credit card debt alone with highest delinquency rates in decades in 2026. Cost of living has only made things worse and some of this happened as Biden poured money into the economy to help people hurt by the pandemic, yet with some short run consequences with demand strong businesses including hotels, restaurants and grocery stores, auto dealers, jacking up their prices by over 20% in 1 year and Biden failing to respond, getting overwhelmed by open borders migrants under Mayorkas and Harris (also hit by a sudden Venezuelan migrant influx). This is the America one has today- a confusing mix. This in reality means Democrats may take issue with Democrats, Republicans take issue with Republicans, and Democrats join with Republicans on issue by issue basis. It might actually be rational than irrational. On cultural issues if the country has gone over its head and moved too fast on some issues that are not for the general public good, people of different backgrounds can come together to get the best path. On economic issues things are never so straightforward, there are unpredictable consequences and the rules of economics are really not so straightforward either.  Providing relief can mean the government shouldering the burden as during the pandemic which it should, yet with caution as businesses can use the excess demand to raise prices and one is back to square one with everybody worse off as happened with Biden. Migrant flows and fears of insecurity in public spaces can lead to a severe public "discomfort that can waylay the best intentions of a Harris or Biden, leading to public "backlash." In fact the title of a recent book is "Whiplash." Current books include Floridan Marco Rubio's "Decade's of Decadence- How our Spoiled Elites Blew America's Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity." Rubio means it. Its authentic because as Rubio says repeatedly, his parents could make a living in the 1960's working in a factory with decent wages, low cost of living and low cost of college, the arithmetic between salaries and what you needed for decent home in suburbs and sending children to good public schools, then to college, all adding up. The result is that Rubio could go to college and serve in the Florida legislature. Rubio says in 2026, after the elites under Bush and Obama and faulty economic theory shipped all of our factories to China, that the story of his parents and his education would simply be impossible. This is what he told people in India on his first visit last week. His parents were Cuban immigrants, yet he identifies with Spain and with western civilization, a devout Roman Catholic. Rubio is a Republican, and is in large contrast with Alejandro Mayorkas, also from Cuba, and Biden's Head of Homeland Security. This is the mix of people and representatives in Congress,  business people, small business owners, professionals, that we have today in 2026 in the US. Plattner and Rubio, one a Democrat and one a Republican- both have something in common. Plattner also has general disdain for "the corporate interests, the billionaires, the Washington DC elites, and the establishment politicians."  The winds are blowing in the direction of getting things right- remembering that Eisenhower continued the work of the Kennedy and LBJ administrations (Eisenhower built the Interstate Highway System for instance, and LBJ gave America Social Security and Medicare). Before that Franklin Roosevelt a Democrat built on the work of his uncle Republican Theodore Roosevelt (TR gave America the idea of good governance and built the US Navy, FDR fought the Depression and stabilized a faltering economy after mistakes made by Republican Herbert Hoover could have happened even if Hoover was a Democrat. FDR was himself from a wealthy New York family and when he first met fellow New Yorker Frances Perkins before his struggle with polio, a haughty New York gentleman. That was before Frances Perkins as FDR's Labor Secretary joined forces with Roosevelt to give New York a modernized administration governance structure by 1940 that was applied to all 51 states after 1950. It allied labor with capital with fairness for all, and was the first such modern structure of this size the world had ever seen, which was the fundamental strength of the United States of America. It was imitated in Asia, first in the Shanghai region then China, and first in the Ahmedabad region and now India. The US is faced with the challenge of recreating and rebuilding this today, as first China, then India remind America of its roots which they have followed in their own style and culture.  First good governance, then good institutional structures, alligning labor and capital with fairness for all, strong affordable + accessible educational and healthcare systems, and investments of capital and labor for infrastructure + industrial development. ...

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Independent oil companies are eager to invest in Venezuela says Treasury Secretary Bessent at the Economic Club of Minnesota. He says phone are ringing non stop from these companies. Big Oil such as Exxon is taking longer. Chevron is already in Venezuela and Bessent says in a few months it can increase production by 40-50%. Oil revenue from Venezuela will be in a special fund that will be used for the people of Venezuela. Under Maduro since 2013 the oil revenue was used for regimes in Cuba and not managed well for the investment in infrastructure and modernization. US sanctions made it hard to modernize the oil industry which will now take place. Bessent calls Cuba's economy decrepit and now in bad shape. It also shows that realistically modernization and good standards of living are not possible in the western hemisphere by regimes of the Cuban or Bolivarist type which descend into corrupt regimes and lack foreign capital and technologies. Lula adopted an approach in Brazil that worked with the US and EU to modernize the economy creating a workable model for a Workers party. There is much to learn from these experiences in Latin America which come at considerable cost and suffering. ...