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China's military exercises for air and sea blockade of Taiwan raise the political risk of doing business in China says this report in WSJ. It raises the risk level for American corporations such as Apple and Boeing and others, that have large investments in China. The escalating tension and freeze in relations between the US and China is a watershed moment says the WSJ. Looking back years from now it may be the year following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine that tensions took on a level that would lead to acceleration of the building of new supply chains for the US and European Union in Asia that separate from China. The Trump years as president escalated trade tensions and tensions over origins of Covid. The war in Ukraine and China's siding with Russia and forming a "no limits" partnership with Russia have created serious rethinking of the entire relationship from supply chains to defense. US president Biden sees Ukraine's defense as a way of showing that an attack on one country by a neighbor in violation of international law is not acceptable to the US, and particularly in the context of China's relations with Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific countries. In this situation the US is taking the initiative in the war in Ukraine with Gen. Cavoli at US Headquarters in Europe assisting in the effort to repel Russian aggression, and also send a message to China on the importance the US sees in not allowing this kind of violation of international law. ...

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This discussion on reinventing oneself to try a second career at age 50 or 60 after years spent working on professional careers shows the nature of this road. Much of it involves doing something creative, something that is fulfilling and not boring, and often this involves giving of one's creative potential doing good and giving back. It is a bumpy road though and most people do not realize that it involves trial and error and finding the right kind of work or activity of interest and aptitude. Most of what is written makes it look easy and glamorous, yet it involves slogging through obstacles, carrying a level of humility with you, and working with young people. Sociologist Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot in her book "The Third Chapter" describes the period that follows as an intermission which is marked by some chaotic experiments, to withstand emotion of being unstructured as if on a boat in high seas without navigational devices. Psychologist John Kounos says it is more important to get more sleep and dream take walks in nature, an do any activity that is fun, allow the mind to wander about in unknown ways. Here it is the heart and intutition that speaks and from which one derives inspiration, not the brain and intellect, say others who have tried to chart new paths that have provided major contributions to science, technology and fields related to public service. It is a kind of problem solving in which there is little room for the ego because of the ever winding road. ...

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As Governor of South Carolina for two terms 2011-2017 Nikki Haley played a major role in getting Boeing to expand its operations in the state and attracting auto companies and other manufacturing industries. South Carolina had suffered from the decline of its textile industry from an earlier industrialization era. She personally helped recruit smaller companies such as Kent Cycle to set up plants in the state.  Nikki Haley's father Ajit Singh Randhawa  is from Amritsar, India, and went to the University of British Columbia on a scholarship for advanced studies in 1964. He was a professor at Punjab Agricultural University before going to Canada. His wife Raj Kaur had a law degree from University of Delhi and after getting a Masters degree in education taught in public schools in South Carolina for 7 years. Ajit Singh moved to South Carolina as a professor of biology at Voorhees College after receiving his PhD. in 1969. Nikki Haley graduated from Clemson University in 1994 with a Bachelors degree in Accounting and Finance. After working for FCR she joined her family's clothing business started by her mother. From 2005 to 2011 she served in the South Carolina House of Representatives. The report from Politico on Haley's career shows her to be resilient and sticking with her beliefs and principles even as she found herself to be the only immigrant  prominent in southern state politics of South Carolina. She also served as US Representative at the United Nations 2017-2018 following two terms as governor of South Carolina.  ...

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Peter Baker talks to experts on American presidents about Trump's 100 days in office. One expert says the presidency has changed Trump more than Trump has changed the presidency. Trump has told reporters recently that the job was harder than he thought, the decisions requiring much more thought and much harder. Described during the campaign as following instincts, impetuous and brushing off briefings, the Trump that has emerged in the early period is a president who surprisingly has been willing to listen to advice from Republican leaders in business and government. He has also changed course where appropriate on trade with Mexico, China, Germany and other countries, and shown decision making ability where appropriate such as over use of chemical weapons in Syria. He has listened to Muilenburg of Boeing on the Export-Import Bank, his Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on NAFTA and Mexico, to Gary Cohn his economic adviser for a careful studied approach on taxes and the economy, as covered here in Lyrarc.  And Trump has built a relationship based on discussions with president Jinping of China, which has helped create a stable climate for world trade and the economy after the ruffled period of the campaign. On NATO and South Korea he has given the lead to his advisers, Gen. Mattis, Tillerson and his vice president Pence. For this to happen president Trump with his exuberant and sometimes volatile personality has shown a capacity for learning and growth over this short period, surprising many. ...

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Payne and Applebaum take a look at the Airbus factory in Mobile, Alabama. The $600 million manufacturing facility could have been built anywhere, as parts are made in many different countries. There are no special advantages in assembly at Mobile, that could not be obtained elsewhere. It is mainly the result of a decision at Airbus to make the planes in the large markets, and gaining a larger share of America's military budget. Airbus got $158.5 million in state and local incentives, including a school that trains Airbus workers. The goal is to make it cost not a cent more than it costs to make the airplanes in Europe, even though it costs a lot to ship parts from Hamburg. The non unionized labor makes it possible to have lower labor costs with the starting wage at $16.50 an hour.

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This editorial in the WSJ commends Congress for the $2 trillion U.S. aid package for households, small business and large corporations to keep workers on payroll, and aid to hospitals. It also commends the Federal Reserve for swift action to maintain liquidity in all corners of money markets. It was important to prevent a run on money market funds and municipal bond funds. The U.S. Senate bill adds $454 billion for Treasury that can support further Fed action if needed. This has also resulted in a recovery in the stock markets. The editors of WSJ caution Treasury from intervening too far up the risk curve to help companies that had overleveraged themselves with risk before coronavirus hit. It makes clear that the U.S. central bank the Fed should only offer liquidity against good collateral to companies that were healthy before the shock. As president  Trump never tires of telling listeners to his daily briefings from the Brady room in the White House- Boeing and the airlines were healthy before coronavirus hit. It was not their fault that coronavirus hit so suddenly. These companies deserve government help, says the president. By making the distinction between otherwise healthy companies and companies that overleveraged themselves on their own, the Fed, Treasury, and the U.S. government can get more bang for the buck. The WSJ editorial also says there is a bit of good news in the behaviour of politicians, media and the public in the way they are ignoring the trivial politics and self-centred behaviours, including indiscriminately being critical of the president, and focusing on the important matters that affect all our lives.  ...

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BBC News covers the opposition by business leaders in the U.S. to president Trump's decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate change agreement. Elon Musk of Tesla and Robert Iger of Disney say they will quit working on the president's advisory councils. Walmart, Apple, Google and other companies also opposed the move. Energy companies Exxon and Chevron also opposed the move. This reduces the business community's confidence in and support for the Trump administration. Some analysts see the Trump move as a way to satisfy the mood of his own election base of support among people who see the climate change accord as one more aspect of a rigged system of globalization, a theme Trump has used during his campaign in 2016. During the first 100 days many of the decisions Trump made took into account the views of business leaders from Boeing on the Export Import Bank, of Gary Cohn on tax reforms, of Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary on NAFTA trade agreement. With the investigations in Congress underway the analysts see the move as political to shore up support with the Trump base. Yet it also brings with it the cost of losing support in the business community that has traditionally supported Republican presidents. ...

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Conversation with Richard Branson of the airlines Virgin Atlantic, Virgin America. He talks about how he founded Virgin and how he sold Virgin Records to focus on the airline business. Virgin is British Airways biggest competitor. He started the airline by calling the head of Boeing to get a secondhand 747 which he could return in one year to cap the downside risk, showing he's both brash and has an eye for the numbers and for the customers.

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Dubai airport had 67.3 million passengers in the 12 month period through Feb. 2014, according to Airports Council International. Emiraes airline is based in Dubai. It was setup in 1985 using a $10 millon grant from the government of Dubai and 2 Boeing 727 planes. The precipitating factor was a cutback in flights by Gulf Air between UAE and Pakistan. Emirates benefitted from a business friendly environment in Dubai and open skies policies that helped the aviation sector grow. Another factor helping rapid growth is that the CEO of Emirates, Sheikh Ahmed bin al-Maktoum, is chairman of Dubai Airports and Dubai Civil Aviation Authority, chairman of the low cost carrier Flydubai, and is the uncle of Dubai's ruling king Sheikh Rashid al-Maktoum.

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The Air France strike ends after 2 weeks, with the government deciding not to step in with a mediator. Air France says it will continue its strategic plan to expand budget airline Transavia, though Air France pilots would not be required to fly for Transavia. About 250 Transavia pilots will be hired as part of overall hiring of 2000 new employees, and the pilots will fly longer hours at less pay than the current pay and hours of Air France pilots. About 35 single-aisle Boeing 737 jets will be added for Transavia. No Transavia base of operations will be setup outside Netherlands and France, such as ones planned for Portugal to reduce costs. About 40% of the European air travel market is now with budget airlines. The strike cost Air France about $25 million a day for 2 weeks.

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If the trade war escalates to the point at which president Trump imposes tariffs on all Chinese goods imported into the U.S. on Jan. 1, 2019, China could retaliate with its own tariffs and this might affect Boeing aircraft as well. The results would be to tip the economies of both countries into a recession, and affect Mr. Trump's best chances for reelection in 2020. This can happen as Mr. Trump has a great deal of confidence in his negotiating style. The negotiations so far have shown China misread the U.S. and Mr. Trump leading to a strong U.S. response.  There is also the importance of not losing face, Mr. Xi's domestic audience, Chinese industry that sees a fundamental change from state subsidies model as eroding its position and offering resistance, patriotic sentiment making it harder to meet U.S. demands. Fundamentally for Mr. Trump it is about U.S. trade deficit and changing the huge trade surplus of almost $1 trillion that China enjoys each year with the U.S. which has been and is no longer sustainable. Mr. Trump also has the backing of Republicans on this issue and Democrats cannot afford to be soft on this issue as it involves American workers and jobs are at stake. Both sides could be in for a protracted negotiation as Mr. Trump feels it is right for Americans to expect fair trade and technology transfer that respects American concerns. In addition the U.S. could sense that it exports less to China, is less dependent on exports than China, and as the party that is hurt by unfair practices insist on its position. After Japan agreed to U.S. demands that it reverse a huge trade surplus in the seventies in which Mr. Lighthizer was the negotiator its growth declined sharply and is economy stagnated. China may sense inside that this could happen to its economy. Today Lighthizer the U.S. negotiator and Trade Representative could also push hard because of he was able to convince Japan to change its course. ...

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Southwest prepared for jet fuel at $3.30 a gallon by passing on cost increases to passengers. Now it is preparing for jet fuel at $3.50 a gallon, CEO Gary Kelly said in an interview. The acquisition of AirTran in 2011, increased the size of Southwest by 20%, and is expected to generate additional revenue synergies of $400 million to $500 million. It also gives Southwest access to Atlanta and increases the number of cities served from 72 to 94. Kelly sees additional opportunities for growth in the lower 48 U.S. states before looking at markets in overseas destinations close to the U.S. Southwest has an order of 100 bigger and more fuel efficient 737-800s from Boeing. Boeing's Max jets are expected to be delivered in 2017. Other opportunities for growth will be expansion from Dallas Love Field to more destinations beginning in 2014.

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Southwest airlines grounded part of its Boeing 737 fleet to conduct safety inspections.

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Karishma Vaswani of the BBC points out that the Trump administration tariffs and the response from China with tariffs of its own, are not the beginning of a trade war but negotiating tactics of both sides. Behind the scenes and behind the declarations and position statements both sides are talking to each other and considering the options open to each. The U.S. position is that China has emerged with a bigger share of the global economy by dumping products, subsidizing its industries from solar panels to high tech ventures, and stealing American technology by forcing U.S. firms into joint ventures that increase pass through of advanced technology. U.S. firms seeking access to the Chinese market or using China as a manufacturing base such as Boeing, Apple, GE and other high tech companies are in ventures or manufacturing arrangements where China has access to advanced American technology. Nathaniel Taplin in his article in the WSJ also sees this as a negotiating position set out in the U.S. for talks with China. Taplin says the U.S. is in a stronger position in this negotiation because of the huge surplus of about $300 billion that China now has with the U.S., and which is increasing in 2018 with the strength of the dollar. The Trump administration is looking to correct the trade imbalance in the future by focussing on China's access to advanced U.S. technologies in the next phase of competition between the U.S., Europe and China. This limited objective is more likely to lead to concessions by China Taplin argues, because of two reasons. China needs the dynamism of U.S. firms and technology advances because these firms and Chinese firms that are getting foreign investment are the most productive part of the Chinese economy with jobs generated, rate of return about twice that of inefficient state run firms. China also needs access to advanced U.S. and European technologies even in a limited form as it pursues further modernization.   ...

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Some of the key executives are leaving Airbus as the company faces turmoil in its executive ranks. CEO Tom Enders leaves in April 2019, Chief Operating Officer Fabrice Bergier leaves Feb. 2018. John Leahy in sales left Airbus, and others who left the company include the head of engineering, and the chief technology officer. All this is happening as the company faces investigations in several countries including France and Austria for corruption, and according to this report for using middlemen and making illegal payments.

In France Airbus offices have been raided in an investigation. Enders is one of the executives being investigated in a combat jet deal. COO Bergier is leaving with a good record for managing the smooth development of the A350 wide body aircraft, and the production increase to 700 aircraft in 2017 for the first time in the company's history.

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Boeing's desision to find a replacement for the 737 will be an important test for it to pass to build on its lead over Airbus in fuel efficient airplanes.

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The Labor department reported that unemployment surged to 10.2 % in October 2009. 190,000 jobs were lost in October 2009. Ther breakdown lokks like this. Construction lost 62,000 jobs, manufacturing lost 61,000 jobs forming the bulk of the job losses. Its interesting to note that only 16,000 jobs were gained in the federal government and 16,000 jobs were lost at the local government level making the net gain zero at the government level. And what was gained in the health care sector 28,700 jobs and in educational services 10,700 jobs for a total of 39,400 jobs was completely offset by 39,800 jobs lost in retail sector. The useful point here is that local governments are hurting and retail sector is hurting and little is going to change this as long as job losses continue and the gains at the government level and healthcare and educational services are simply offset by losses inretail and local government. This situation will likely ocntinue into 2010. The losses in manufacturing are likely to continue. A sample of companies like Eaton, Boeing and John Deere shows that 2010 will not generate many jobs. Eaton has decided to have its 55,000 employees take aweek of each quarter, so there is one twelfth work capacity unused which is where Eaton will turn to before hiring. At Boeing there are layoffs of 10,000 planned but its also hiring 3800 workers for anew factory in South Carolina, and at John Deere 452 workers will be recalled in November but in December there is aplanned shutdown. A September Survey by Business Roundtable found that 13% of firms planned to increase employment in the next 6 months, but 40% planned to cut payrolls. So manufacturing looks to go on like this in 2010 with slowing but continued job losses. The numbers show that in October the median number of weeks it takes to find ajob up to 18.7 weeks which is the highest number since the sixties. What gets ignored by the small print you find it in the Wall Street Journal is the broader unemployment rate which is 17.5% when you include those who have stopped looking, those who work part time but need full time work and the marginally unemployed. The rates jump for younger workers here and in Europe also. ...