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Living wills of BNP Paribas SA, HSBC Holdings PLC and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC come under increased scrutiny from the U.S. Fed. These banks were added to 11 U.S. banks required to submit new drafts of "living wills" by the end of 2015, which ensure no damage to the U.S. economic system from a bank collapse. Only Wells Fargo & Co.'s "living will" was accepted by regulators as not causing economic damage. In making the decision the Fed and the FDIC agreed that the "living wills" were "not credible."

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Pollock's interview with Geroge Shultz, Reagan's senior economic advisor and Secretary of State, at his office in the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He says the U.S. can find its way out of the current economic crisis the way it did during the early Reagan years. On the Fed's loose monetary policy he says the Bernanke Fed's contribution to the economic crisis was very easy money. Now that we have it we realize that its going to take something different from easy money to get the economy moving- not just more money. Three quarters of the debt issued by the U.S. in the last year was bought by the Fed, and the Fed is monetizing debt when it buys debt because at some time this ends up getting out into the economy. Shultz sees the tax rules as being about more than rates. Corporate tax rates should be lowered by cleaning up preferences. But what is most important is predictability and an environment where business feels there is less uncertainty when investing. Shultz says Romney should read his memo to Reagan before Reagan assumed office, excerpted in the WSJ, "Advice to a New President," May 26, 2012. He also recommends John Taylor's new book- "First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America's Prosperity." ...

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The housing downturn as a result of sharply higher interest rates as the Fed's Jay Powell takes on surging inflation is very different from the problems of bank's shoddy mortgages of 2008. The 2008 financial crisis was a banking crisis from overleveraging by US banks and the use of questionable mortgages in housing. The rules set down and strict regulation since 2008 protect the housing market from the errors of 2008.

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WSJ's Reilly says the U.S. Federal Reserve's effort to make stress tests unpredictable and keep the banks guessing is how it is supposed to be done for tests to be effective. This prevents banks from gaming the tests. The Fed has other interests to protect- the nation's financial system and taxpayers. Only by designing the tests correctly can the Fed ensure that it is doing its job of safeguarding the U.S. financial system.

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This group of 26 leading scientists from Australia, France, Britain and the US are calling for a new international full, open and unrestricted forensic investigation into the origins of the coronavirus in its original location of Wuhan. This happens as scientists on the WHO investigation team in Wuhan say they did not have unrestricted access to conduct their investigation. The Biden administration has restored ties to the World Health Organization after the Trump administration cut ties on this issue of transparency. The Biden administration says transparency is an essential condition for the US as it seeks to continue US participation in WHO. The US, India, France, Britain and other European nations have a long history of participation in WHO and were original founders. Recent flawed election processes at WHO and the lack of effective leadership from western foundations have led to the lack of effective leadership of WHO that prevailed in post war world for the first five decades of the organization. Much of that leadership was from western nations, India and Japan, during a period in which the pandemics were managed limiting their spread from the areas of origin. ...

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The yen is at 134 to the dollar in June 2022 having dropped by 22% in 2022. The US Fed is increasing rates while the Bank of Japan is keeping its low interest rate policy. Japan's inflation is at 2.5% compared to 8.6% in April 2022 for the US. The last time the central bank intervened to buy dollar was in 1998 with severe yen overvaluation which is not the case now. The yen's weakening means the parts Japan imports from its supply chain in Asia now cost much more.

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Cornyn is a 5 term Republican senator from Texas who was once a rival of Mitch McConnell for Senate Majority Leader. He lost in the Texas Republican primary to challenger Ken Paxton, Attorney General of Texas. Paxton got the Texas Republican base to back him with CJT's endorsement. The result Paxton wins by 64% to 36% and heads into a fight for the Senate seat with Talarico of the Democrats. Texas voted for DJT by a margin of 14%. Democrats are targeting this Senate seat with huge fundraising. Ted Cruz defended his Senate seat against Rep. Allred with ad spending reaching $210 million in 2024. Talarico has raised $27 million in 3 months, Paxton $7 million. It shows that regardless of which party, both parties spend heavily and raise enormous sums making them beholden to special interests that make it difficult to change aspects of the system such as runaway pharmaceutical costs, cost of living, or to regulate banks, social media, cyber currency, and AI. The result is that Congress has less credibility and poor approval ratings with the public than ever. US Congress has disapproval rating of 90%, only 10% approve of its conduct and performance. Among Democrats 3%, Republicans 20%, and Independents 11%. ...

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Having Powell at the Fed at this time is a major asset for the US economy as he tries to navigate the tariffs situation in 2025. Powell is widely credited with tackling inflation and the supply chain shock following the pandemic that led to surging inflation. Powell has said that the DJT tariffs have come from other nations not allowing a level playing field by subsidizing their industries and giving unfair advantage to their companies, DJT has justified tariffs action as limited to ensuring a level playing field, calling reciprocal as limiting tariffs to what the other nation charges the US, a way of saying this is based on fairness principle in trade and business.

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Two key appointments in international affairs are made by the Obama administration in Jan 2014. Nathan Sheets is appointed the new Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, and Mark Sobel is made the new U.S. representative to the IMF Board. Sheets served at the U.S. Fed since 1993 for about 2 decades, advising the Fed Open Market Committee on global financial developments, becoming the head of the Fed's international finance division in 2007. He received his doctorate in economics from MIT. Since 2011 he was Citigroup's head of global international economics. Sobel worked at the U.S. Treasury for 3 decades mostly in its international divisions, including 4 years as senior advisor to the U.S. representative at the IMF. The U.S. delegation to the Group of 20 meeting of ministers and central bankers in Sydney, Australia will include these 2 senior officials. The appointments come as the U.S. has not moved in the direction of greater power sharing with emerging nations at the IMF, and the emerging markets crisis in 2013-2014 with India, Brazil and other countries critical of U.S. Fed policy leading to capital outflows. Sheets works well with central bankers from other countries and is well received as a consensus builder. Sobel is seen as more direct in presenting U.S. positions. ...

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Us stock market gains of 24% in 2023 are seen as a surprise after fears of Fed tightening leading to a downturn. Instead inflation has come down and with government investment in infrastructure and bringing factories back to the US, boosting US manufacturing, the US is building a stronger economy. A related WSJ article has graphs that show over 50% of US households owning stocks so that the gains in stocks since 2020 are now more widely shared in the US population. Along with wage gains and bringing down the cost of living and moderating housing costs it sets the stage for a recovery of America from the free market experiments that followed after Reagan leading to the 2009 financial crisis, neglect of manufacturing and shipping of factories overseas.

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The WSJ editorial board opinion is offered in the spirit of free markets and free people from Jefferson's Declaration and Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations. Yet it is a complete misreading of Adam Smith as Smith had a social side which called for corporate interests of that time such as the East India Company of Britain to behave in a responsible manner with public interests and social sentiment in mind. Smith also sought to preserve the national interest of Britain and its role as dominant power. Whereas for for three decades WSJ is taking enormous risks with the national interest of the US in remaining a dominant industrial power. No one at the WSJ can explain how this can be done by shipping out the manufacturing industrial capacity and technological knowhow of any Nation, especially the United States over 3 decades. Worse it risks the entire period and the ideas of the awakening in Europe in ideas and science that powered the Industrial Revolution, that did not happen in Asia,  and led to so many of the advances in science and industry that we enjoy today, and share with large Asian nations China and India. That amazing period of awakening and the Industrial Revolution and its achievements is not part of the collective memory of the nations of Asia, of China India and Japan, and this kind of attitude of neglect of this essential part of our mindset and makeup in the US and Europe, acts to our detriment, and to the detriment of China, India and Japan. ...

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Zweig, Light and Pleven reflect on the experience of the last 5 years in the stock market. Investors who went through severe anxiety for higher investment allocation in stocks in 2009 now feel the opposite for low investment allocation in stocks. What does one make of this, and what have we learned, is the question posed. One lesson is that investors should be wary of relying too much on predictions. At one point predictions of Goldman Sachs and other bank economists was for the S&P at 1250 at the end of 2012, when it was 1421 in April 2012. The eurozone crisis and the sluggish U.S. job growth, debt overhang, were major factors in their assessment. The eurozone recovered faster than expected and the Iranian nuclear crisis risks were reduced through negotiations. QE 1, QE 2, QE 3 by the U.S. Fed under Bernanke provided support to the market. Banks recovered faster than expected with help from the Fed. Another lesson is that this can happen with higher volatility, 900 point drops occured in May 2010 and there were drops in April 2012 and other dates. Zweig gives April 2011 as a date for the start of a 5 month bear market, citing Oct 4, 2011 as another date with the market dropping 21% from the April 2011 peak. Another lesson is that performance statistics can play tricks, a month or a year can make a big difference. If 2013 is not included the statistics look very different, if 5 years go back to Feb 2009 when there was a 11% decline instead of March 2009 when there was a 9% improvement the numbers change quite a bit. Another lesson is that macroeconomic news played a major part in the story of the stock market in 2009-2014 and continues today, with continuing support and vigilance from the U.S. Fed and the ECB. The bad news from the eurozone throughout 2011 and into 2012, and sluggish job markets in the U.S., took a positive turn in 2013. The U.S economy is improving and the eurozone is returning to growth gradually in 2014. Because of different timing in their recovery P/E ratios are higher in the U.S., than in Europe....

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The $25 billion mortgage settlement of Feb. 2012, between large U.S. banks and state attorneys general. $17 billion will go to homeowners. Experts say this is good for the banks because it reduces legal uncertainty, and for state attoneys general- it will not be enough to significantly impact the difficult situation in the U.S. housing market.

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This editorial in the NYT says Bill Clinton moved the Democratic Party to the centre in 1992. In 2016 about 25 years later, after the removal of the Glass Steagall Act led to the 2008 global financial crisis and a deep recession, after the trade relations with China led to loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs over two decades and the hollowing out of industry in the midwest, things have changed. The revolution led by Bernie Sanders, a shrinking middle class, smaller access to college education for the middle and working class, and wide disparities in income, are putting the Democratic Party closer to its roots and the days of FDR. The Democratic Party platform calls for a 21st century Glass Steagall Act to separate normal banking from investment banking, opposes the TPP to prevent any further export of jobs overseas, and goes for a $15 minimum wage. This was also evident at the opening day of the Democratic National Convention when Sanders told the gathering in Philadelphia that even though he was not the candidate, these are the planks of the platform that Hillary Clinton will be pushing for in her presidency. What the editorial does not point out is that the Republican economic platform also calls for reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act, opposes TPP and opposes any loss of American jobs to overseas locations. It differs on the minimum wage leaving it to the states, and it is likely to skew tax cuts towards the wealthy, but also possibly removing the lower income brackets from taxes as Britain has done under the Conservative Party. Both parties today are looking for support from the middle and working class and have directed their appeal to these two groups which are in upheaval. The election of Trudeau in Canada recently also followed this trend, after the hollowing out of Canadian industry in Ontario and Quebec in a similiar pattern as in the midwestern U.S.  ...

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In a speech to 3000 party officials Xi Jinping says it is the "central and united leadership of the party that made possible this historic transition." He was speaking at the 40th anniversary of the Deng reforms to open up China's economy. He said China was right to have "lofty aspirations." Yet he said China "would not sacrifice the interests of other countries," while preserving its own interests. The speech comes as China is trying to find a way out of the trade tensions with the U.S. through negotiations. The U.S. sees China in the same way that it saw Japan's rise as an industrial power in the 1980's. and seeks to preserve U.S. economic strength and balanced trade relations that give no unfair advantages to Asian competitors. The U.S. negotiating team is led by the same negotiator who led the team that negotiated for the Reagan administration with Japan-Robert Lighthizer.

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Professors Cole and Ohanian of the University of Pennsylvania and UCLA, provide a new interpretation of FDR's economic policies during the period 1932-1934 and the period 1937-1941, based on their research. This suggests conclusions different from that of Obama advisor, Christina Romer, and Fed chairman, Bernanke about that period. Changes in economic policies under the Roosevelt administration that helped bring wages in line with productivity, reduced strikes, and gradual elimination of the undistributed profits tax, improved incentives for business investment during 1938-1939. Cole and Ohanian, say that by 1941, before the U.S. entered the war, close to half of the increase in nonmilitary hours worked in the U.S. between 1939 and the peak of the war, had already been achieved. And this was primarily the result of the changes in FDR's policies in 1938. They say a similiar opportunity is presented by the proposals of the Bowles-Simpson commission on deficit reduction, by lowering the corporate income tax through simplification of the tax code and reducing or eliminating most tax expenditures. Improving the incentives for business to hire and invest through this and other steps is likely to do more for the economy than the steps tried so far since 2009....

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In a 5 to 4 court runling the U.S. Supreme Court gives president Trump the authorization to use $2.5 billion in Pentagon funds for building a border wall with Mexico. This was a campaign promise and energized his election campaign after years of failure to reach agreement between Democrats and Republicans on how to tackle the migration issue. In the court's decision it overturned an appellate court decision.  The Supreme Court stated in its order that the groups challenging the administration did not appear to have the legal right to do so. This indicates that the Court's conservative majority is likely to support the Trump administration in the end.  The surge in migration from Central American countries such as Guatemala through Mexico has revived the issue of migration. President Trump also secured an agreement with Guatemala to cut down on the migration.  President Trump has cited the need to control flow of illegal drugs across U.S. southern border in addition to the migrants from Mexico and Central America. In bringing the case to the Supreme Court the solicitor general, Noel Francisco wrote that the Plaintiff (Sierra Club) "interests in hiking, bird watching and fishing in designated drug smuggling corridors do not outweigh the harm to the public from halting the government's efforts to construct barriers to stanch the flow of illegal narcotics across the southern border."  The dispute between the Trump administration and the Democrats controlled House of Representatives led to court decisions stopping the use of government funds to build the wall. This led to the declaration of a national emergency along the Mexican border by president Trump on Feb. 15, 2019, after a government shutdown during an impasse with Congress on this issue.  Now the Supreme Court has given president Trump access to Defense Department funds to proceed with the wall and meet a campaign promise.   ...

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The Cleveland address and question answer session on July 10, 2011, showed Janet Yellen at her best. She was applauded several times for her answers especially for her emphasis on clarity. One question was about the use of the term"quantitative easing," couldn't the Fed have found a better word? Yellen pointed out that the Fed at the time used "buying of long term assets" as the phrase for that activity, after the media referred to it as "quantitative easing." That term stuck and the Fed ended up accepting the use of the term to refer to the Bernanke Fed's program. Yellen also said the buying of long term assets was intended to raise long term rates, and was different from the effort in Japan of buying short term assets that failed to stimulate the Japanese economy. Throughout Yellen was entirely comfortable making clear what she had in mind. At one point she was asked about the IMF director Lagarde's statement that the U.S. is better off not raising rates in 2015, because of the uncertain economic outlook in Europe, China and other places. Yellen's response was that this was one more view that she considered along with the views of several other Fed governors who had different views and reading of the economic situation. She emphasized that the increase in the rates will be very gradual, a position very consistent with her earlier statements, and this made the long tem path of interest rates more important said Yellen, than the particular time when the Fed first raised rates. For her clarity, empathy, and sound grasp of the economic situation, few Fed chairman have come close to Yellen, as was evident in the audience's grateful response. ...

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Lael Brainard, Fed Vice Chair, is the new director of the US National Economic Council, which advises the president on economic policy and coordinates policy between executive branch agencies. The NEC director will now oversee the implementation of the infrastructure and semiconductor spending packages. WSJ says she may also have the task of managing the economic fallout from Ukraine because of her background growing up in west Germany and communist Poland as the daughter of an American diplomat.

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It is a serious problem when big banks such as JP Morgan Chase offer 1-2% in interest on deposits when the Fed has increased market rates to above 5%. The average for all banks is only 0.73%. Consider that JP Morgan Chase made $14 billion in profit in 2022. This reduces the interest earned by the vast majority of average Americans who have savings at American banks and reduces their wealth further increasing inequality in the US.

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The European Union governments are finding it increasingly difficult to salvage the Iran nuclear deal and lifting of sanctions. European governments rejected Iran's 60 day ultimatum to help circumvent U.S. Trump administration sanctions. The U.S. sanctions have already led to Iran's oil export to drop from 2.5 million barrels a day to 1 million. Lost shipments have cost Iran $10 billion hurting its economy. Initially European nations France and Germany hoped to keep the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by working with Iran, but this has become increasingly difficult with the Trump administration increasing sanctions including limiting access to U.S. markets for nations that do not cooperate with U.S. policy. The U.S. pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and now it looks like the Europeans are faced with a difficult choice in continuing to work with Iran.

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Questions China faces on AI- 17% high youth unemployment and 200 million young people in the gig economy in low wage demanding work. Chinese Communist party wants to see a stable China that can pursue industrial progress for decades like the European Union and the US. For this reason it is not going to let this level of dissatisfaction with high youth unemployment and low wage demanding work for young people to go to the next level. For this reason it will carefully make investments in AI -not the hyper investments in AI that are taking place in the US. The competition with China is going to take place on many fronts, and the industrial bloc created by the EU with India and Nordics has a 15 year plan during which it and the US are likely to far exceed anything China does at a slower rate of growth. As in the US choices will have to be made in China, investment in one area means disinvestment in other areas that have equal or more priority. Today's capital markets are in complete dysfunction in the US operated by a few banks and tech company leaders, similar to the situation prevailing in pharmaceuticals and healthcare. Investment priorities and planning are needed. It is a major error to say US cannot plan that capitalism does not have planning, because it is absolutely true that planning goes on at every level in American companies with Xerox, IBM, Oil Companies and other large companies, all having a Long Range Plan as well as planning for individual projects and investments in plants. If a good infrastructure plan, project by project, state by state, and at the local level, is not put in place this will simply not take place. If no good reindustrialization plan, project by project, state by state, and at the local level, is not put in place, this will simply not take place. In that case the competition with China would surely be lost before it had begun. Yet that is surely not the case, as every good American company has a long term plan. And this plan looks at all the potential investments the Nation can and should make in priorities and in the interests of the Nation and the People. All have to compete for resources and AI surely would not get the lions share of resources in China, or in the US, in a fair and well run market system where planning rightly takes place, because it would displace the very basic structure of a fair and well balanced economy that serves the American people, or the people of European Union and India, or the people of China. ...

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The U.S. Fed FOMC's decision to continue tapering monthly bond purchases by $10 billion in Jan 2014.

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BBC reports on Iran protests January 2026. Protests happened with students, with women periodically over the last two decades. Iran over the years since the monarchy in the 1880's and democratic movements (parliaments) in 1900's, monarchy in the 1930's and 1960's, socialist governments 1960's. Cold War and restored monarchy in 1970's, religious theocracy 1990's till today has gone through many different governments. It was part of the British Empire (that included India/Pakistan) and Russia's buffer region in the 18th and 19th century.  After economic sanctions from US and Europe the economy depends on sanctioned oil exports. Its defense operations divert much of the funding from oil based resources away from economic development . Much of that was a result of the anticolonial socialist ideologies that spread from North Africa (Algeria, Egypt) to Iraq and Syria that led to wars in Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan- which also led to Iraq's version the Baathist ideology invading Iran. Russia and the US have extracted themselves at much loss from these conflicts by 2025 and are posed at a historic rapprochement in relations. For Iran there is today no danger from the region or from European powers, and like the US the people and the country are asking questions about the economic and living conditions from so much in resources now diverted to external conflicts- like the US the people in the region of Iran and the entire Middle East apart from a few small oil rich regions with a tiny part of the overall population- maybe 5% in Qatar and UAE, and Saudi- feel the impact of little investment in rapid economic development of the overall region. A region with a population close to the European Union of 500 million but a tiny fraction of economic development investment for the vast majority of people in Egypt and other parts of North Africa and regions of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Sudan. Most of the investment of $1 trillion is concentrated in the 10% of the population of over 500 million people in oil resource Saudi Arabia, UAE/Qatar monarchies, the rest languishing in war, and now meaningless- in terms of living standards- of anticolonial ideologies or militant religious ideologies, or internecine/ethnic conflict. ...