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Ashwini Bhide was first shown by Corinne Abrams of the WSJ, for the bold vision she was putting forward for meeting the aspirations of young Indians for a better place to live in, in one of India's largest cities Mumbai. As head of the Mumbai Metro Rail project, IAS 1995 batch, Ashwini Bhide worked tirelessly to make a dream of Mumbai residents to move quickly through new state of the art rail services with modern technology come true. A dream held up for decades in which millions of Mumbai residents put up with old, dilapidated, and incomplete rail services. Abrams called it a most audacious project to break open Mumbai's belly to make this happen. On the way Bhide had to overcome many hurdles, including a two year gap in 2020-2022 that reflected the way things had slowed down for decades. It is a top priority today for the federal and state governments and is to be completed in 2024.This is meeting the aspirations of young Indians for a better country, a better future. It is work that Mohandas Gandhi would be proud of for Young India a century later. ...

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The Indian pharmaceutical industry is expected to grow by 13% to $24 billion in 2010. R&D is a special focus, as new drugs can be developed at much lower cost in India. Mr. Piramal, for instance, kept the R&D operation of Piramal when he sold the rest of the company to Abbott Labs of the USA. The Piramal lab in Mumbai has 300 researchers and scientists, and Mr Piramal says he can develop new drugs at a tenth of the $1.5- $2 billon cost it takes for this in the USA and Europe.

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Commodities prices hit a low in June before the second Greece election on June 16, with lower unemployment numbers in the U.S. and growth of 6-7% in India and China. Still average prices of oil in 2012 of $115 a barrel are higher than the level in 2011. And corn prices dropping to $5.25 a bushel are still high compared with prices earler. Corn farmers in the U.S. are adding to acreage. The relatively lower prices also give more room for smaller stimulus by central banks to stimulate growth. Freeport-Mining CEO, Richard Atkinson said in a presentation that the growth is coming on top of a bigger baseline for China, India and Brazil. China's copper consumption went up by about 6 million tons a year, averaging 13% growth a year in the period 1995-2010. Now even with slower growth at 6% a year, by 2025 he estimates China's copper consumption at 9 million tons per year. This is a structural change that is supporting commodity prices, says Amrita Sen, analyst at Barclays Capital.

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Apple shares are down 25% says this WSJ article and asks the question whether Apple's best days are past. In the fastest growing markets in Asia and Africa, Apple iPhones are beyond the reach of about 95% of the population. The number of Apple iPhones sold in India have dropped 40% in 2018 compared to 2017. Apple's market share in India has fallen from 2% to 1%, according to Canalys research firm. The $1.8 billion in Indian sales is about half of what Apple executives had hoped for when Tim Cook visited India in 2016. Some call it a rout. Tim Cook seldom mentions India now. At the center of this is Apple's reluctance to change its business model of getting the highest margins, making not a range of handsets, but a few models selling at high prices. This is the strategy that Apple has used to revive the company from near bankruptcy in 1997. Competitors including Xiaomi, the Apple for China and India, tweak their phones constantly to address local concerns for battery life, and lower prices to get market penetration. Only 24% of Indians have a smartphone and India is fastest growing market. Friction with the Modi government which cannot be favorable to Apple's plans to push a high  margin product when competitors have similar but better value packages.   In price sensitive markets of Africa and Asia most people buy phones outright and use pay as you go plans, Apple is not popular. Even in China Apple's market share is down from 12.5% in 2015 to 8% in 2017, according to Canalys. Apple is reluctant to make many models offering lower prices and to address concerns such as battery life in India. In India 39 million people will add smartphones in 2018 with 75% costing less than $250, 95% costing less than $500. In Apple's lineup the iPhone 7 costs around $550. Competitors such as Xiaomi, OnePlus, Oppo, and Vivo flooded India with smartphones costing less than $200. Unlike Apple which spurns market research these companies do extensive research work on local situation. OnePlus has focussed on battery life and gained 30% share of the premium segment to Apple's 25%. By making the devices in India these companies avoid having to pay the 20% tariff. Apple has so far not put up a new plant with the restriction that India places of single brand retailers over 51% foreign owned to buy locally 30% of manufacturing materials. The Modi government felt Apple was not focussed enough on bringing high tech jobs to India and helping local manufacturing, a perception not conducive to expansion in India where "Made in India" is the government plan. This means opening Apple stores in India is less likely now.  The turnover of Apple India executives is also increasing with 3 new CEO's 2017- 2019. Apple's strategy of targeting wealthier Indians makes it not even a fringe player in the Indian market down to 1% of the market. Just as it shrinks in the Chinese market where most customers are price sensitive and the economy is slowing.   ...

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The 2010 census reveals significant changes in the population mix in the U.S. The number of Hispanic people increased significantly, especially so in the under 18 age group. The Hispanic population went up by 43%, increasing to 50.5 million in 2010, compared to 35.3 million in 2000. Overall Hispanics make up 16% of the U.S. population of 308.7 million. One of the striking facts in the change is that children under age of 18 make up one third of the Hispanic population compared to one fifth for the white population. Texas by itself added 979,000 people under age 18, with 931,000 being Hispanic. 92% of the population growth since 2000-of 25.1 million- came from minorities of all kinds. And mixed race is another major category with nine million people. Asian American population also increased, especially in major cities such as San Francisco, San Jose and New York. Overall 63.7% of people identified as white, 16.3% as Hispanic, 12.2% as black, 4.7% as Asian, 0.7% as American Indian or Alaska natives. New York and Washington saw black populations decline. Detroit dropped out of the top ten cities replaced by San Jose. Chicago's population declined, New York's went up by 2% to 8.2 million people. ...

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Reports of ATM's running out of cash in India in 8 states. The government says this is a result of a spurt in demand and will ease in a few days. The government's policies are to increase the number of debit card and digital transactions to shift more of the transactions in an underground economy into the formal economy so that tax revenues to fund infrastructure can be generated. As a result fewer currency notes of Rs. 2000 or about $30 are being printed. This is aggravated by black market hoarders of 2000 rupee notes. Public confidence in the banks was shaken by some high profile scandals leading to people keeping extra cash at home increasing the demand. The government plans a bailout of $32 billion for bad loans at banks.

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Contrast the slow US vaccine export response with that of India, Russia, EU and China. Only in May 2021 after India's daily Covid cases were close to 400,000 a day did the US make a serious offer of vaccines to other countries in need of assistance. U.S. president Biden says that 80 million vaccine doses would be exported by the end of June 2021. The WSJ says citing Airfinity, a London research firm, as of May 10 more than 333 million doses of vaccine were produced by the US and only 3 million vaccine doses were exported. Contrast that with the European Union which has shipped 111 million doses overseas one third of its total production, Russia which has exported 27 million doses.  India has exported 66 million doses according to the Ministry of External Affairs website as of May 17, 2021. This includes 4 million doses to Brazil, 4 million to Nigeria. Within its own region Bangladesh received 10 million and Sri Lanka 1.2 million doses, Afghanistan 1 million. Mexico received about 1 million doses. In Africa the Democratic Republic of the Congo which has suffered from many epidemics including Ebola virus received 1.7 million doses, Nigeria 4 million doses, Kenya 1 million, Uganda 1 million. Of the 66 million about half of it is a direct grant assistance and Brazil, Mexico, Morocco received all vaccine as grant assistance, 70% of Bangladesh's is grant assistance. The list on the Ministry of External Affairs site of the Government of India shows 95 countries including many of the most struggling nations of Latin America and Africa, bringing hope to countries which are struggling to hold onto hope for a better life beyond the pandemic. Sending help overseas through vaccine supplies is suspended for the moment but will resume in July after India has pulled in all of its pharmaceutical manufacturing industry under a government guided effort to go all out. Never has so much help bringing much needed hope gone to so many countries of the world in the twentieth or twenty first century from a nation that is struggling to meet its own needs. The US in pursuing a US first policy of vaccinating all its citizens has not taken into account the need to bring this evolving vaccine technology into the hands of as many qualified pharmaceutical manufacturers as possible. This in a rapid response to expand manufacturing capabilities to meet world wide demand. The risks of not doing so were not taken on early- the very same way the virus spread in January to March of 2020 can be repeated as people travel around the world particularly for tourism, business family reasons. This risk takes on anew dimension of contagious mutations of the virus which are 50% more- the Indian variant being 50% more contagious by some estimates than the UK variant, which itself was estimated to be 50% more contagious than the original one.  The result a pandemic that stretches out indefinitely unless billions of doses are made in a short timetable to beat the timetable of Nature through the coronavirus. India is doing this for the first time with plans to produce billions of doses by engaging the whole of the Indian pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in the effort in a rapid response so that July to December would see 1.2 billion people vaccinated. The US effort, the European effort is left to the individual effort of pharmaceutical makers in the US and Europe, not a government guided effort to engage the entire pharmaceutical industry of the US and Europe in a rapid response timetable of 2-6 months.  ...

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Teh Reva Electric Car Company in Bangalore, India. GM's electric version of the Chevy Spark will use Reva's technology. THis electric version will go on sale in India by the end of 2010.

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A 1000 mile windswept coastline and 300 days of sunshine make the southern African nation of Namibia an attractive location for green hydrogen projects. Green hydrogen is produced using wind and solar energy. There is a 50 fold increase in green hydrogen projects in just the last 12 months globally. The costly technology needs many projects to get to lower costs through technological advances. Germany is doing a pilot project in Luderitz, Namibia. Luderitz will need a deep water project to ship the fuel out.   Renewable wind and solar energy is used to distil the hydrogen atoms in water, as opposed to the currently used method to maky hydrogen from fossil fuels, known as gray hydrogen, or blue hydrogen if the emissions from fossil fuels are captured. Namibia is chosen as its natural advantages could bring the costs down faster. Other locations being adopted are Morocco, Australia, and Chile. The two sites in Namibia had bids from Africa's Sasol, Australia's Fortescu, Germany's Enertrag and Hyphen Hydrogen.  Hyphen Hydrogen won the bid for the two sites. It says the $9.4 billion project is targeting 300,000 metric tons of green hydrogen production a year from 5 gigawatts of renewable energy generation capacity by 2030. "Now all of a sudden the desert has become valuable," says Namibia's finance minister Mr. Shiimi. Additional asset for Namibia is that it ranks highest after Cape Verde in Africa for transparency, creating ease of doing business. It is ranked 57 in Transparency International rank of transparency for countries in 2020. China is 78, India 86 in rank. Namibia is putting up $45 million for the feasibility study on the project with the sesert scrub land an hour from Luderitz, once a diamond mining town on a rocky Atlantic coastline in 1900. Two sites are located in the area each 675 square miles. South Africa is severely short of energy supplies and a pipeline is being considered to take the Namibian hydrogen to South Africa. The African region is expanding in renewable energy. Lake Turkana Wind Power Project in Kenya provides 17% of installed electricity capacity in Kenya with 365 wind turbines.     ...

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UNICEF say 2.5 million children are not attending school in Syria and another 1 million are in danger of dropping out. And that one third of school buildings are destroyed. This is what is left after decades of civil war. The intervention of local and foreign powers in the Arab world has led to huge breakdowns in society, and massive destruction in countries facing civil war such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya. This is the kind of situation that happened in China's northern and southern provinces in the 1930's, and 1940's. A new pathway for peaceful development outside of ideologies and socialist movements, pan arabist or religious movements need to be found for the region, the Arab world in North Africa to the Middle East. China, Korea, and Vietnam found a way out after civil wars over 1940-1975. India is putting out a map for a course of action with Vikshit Bharat  or Developed India after two centuries of stagnation under the British Empire 1756-1947, and 5 decades of stagnation under the Congress Raj 1947-2000. The spirit of development and desire for modernization, for modern science and technology, good governance and institutions, must come from within.   ...

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European Union exports toChina, India and Southeast Asia rose 56% to 228 billion euros between 2000 and 2007, with CHina and India accounting for 44% of that. Now that engine of growth for European companies is about to stall.

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The French under Macron commit to build a new aircraft carrier to come into service in 2038. This will be nuclear powered like the Charles De Gaulle, France's current aircraft carrier. U.S. carriers are also nuclear powered to reduce port stops for fuel. 

French and U.S. ships use American suppliers for some of the flight systems on carriers so that French aircraft and American aircraft can operate off of each others ships. For France it preserves "strategic autonomy" a policy France has pursued since Mr. De Gaulle. It also means tighter U.S. French cooperation with France being America's key ally in Europe. France has plans to increase defense spending by 4.5% and spends over 2% of GDP on defense like the U.S. 

India, Britain, China and Russia are the only other countries with aircraft carriers.

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Next to Uttar Pradesh 242 million population adjacent Bihar with 128 million is decisive in Indian parliament elections since 1947- 2025 state elections show BJP NDA (Modi) sweeping win with over 203 of 243. Assembly seats. Unknown to most of the world is that this region is the birthplace of Buddhist civilization and culture, that later was part of Asian culture and civilization as it spread to China and Japan. Modi plans to add to Nalanda and other seats of Buddhist ancient universities on the world map with UNESCO listings.  The Indian economy needs 15-20 years of stable government dedicated to rapid accelerated growth with full access to US and EU technologies and capital to catch up with China, the US and EU. The road to this starts with 5 regions- northcentral  region Gujarat/Rajasthan/Madhya Pradesh  (99 seats), west central region Maharashtra (48 seats), northern region Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Haryana and Delhi region (17 seats) and Eastern region Bihar (40 seats) which together provide  seats in Indian parliament  284 seats out of total of 543 seats in the Indian parliament. For the first time with the win in Bihar the Modi government is now within reach of this goal of being able to govern in a democracy for next 15 years by delivering on infrastructure, cost of living and rapid industrialization and growth of the economy similar to Japan's and China's growth since 1950. The LDP delivered this in Japan, the CCP in China and the NDA under Modi is in the same position today. ...

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Prime minister Modi says India is achieving its aggressive climate change goals and has set the goal of 450 gigawatts from renewable energy by 2030. Solar energy will play a key role. A new Green Hydrogen Mission will be set up for a quantum leap in hydrogen. 

Indian railways will be a zero carbon emitter by 2030. Indian Railways is moving forward to achieve 100% electrification. CNG, PNG networks will span the whole country. 

He said India imports 1.2 trillion rupees of fossil fuels. Renewable energy will reduce this import bill and release resources for other vital investments for India's rapid modernization goals.

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Attacks from Iran on Saudi oil infrastructure leading to a loss of half of Saudi oil production is likely to be a problem for countries such as China, South Korea and Japan that have reduced oil imports from Iran and increased dependence on Saudi supplies. This was a result of tighter U.S. oil sanctions on Iran. India is also affected. About 30% of the lost production will be restored say Saudis.  The U.S. is less dependent on Saudi supplies and as Gerald Seib points out in a video in WSJ the U.S. has 3 reasons not to intervene on behalf of Saudis. The U.S. has increased its oil production from shale oil and is less dependent on Saudi oil. It is also becoming reluctant to engage in Saudi Arabia's wars such as the one in Yemen against Houthi rebels. There is also less support in Congress and in the country for supporting endless wars that originate from Saudi actions. A Trump tweet before his election campaign shown in WSJ makes this point about endless wars and the U.S. needing to be paid trillions of dollars for these wars. The conflicts in the region affect China and India where growth is close to 5% before any impact from oil price increases. Together Asian countries take in 72% of Saudi oil exports and China now imports more Saudi oil than Russian oil by a wide margin- in June 1.88 million barrels a day. Saudi oil makes about 19% of imported oil in India and 33% for Japan. Imports into India of Saudi oil are up 8% this year to 847,000 barrels a day in 2019. China is better situated than Japan with reserve supplies of 644 days of imports compared to 230 days for Japan. This why Japan has played a constructive role in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and urged both sides to negotiate. China and India also have interests that converge in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. As a first step president Trump removed his National Security Adviser John Bolton in preference for reduced tensions.  ...

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For what a ruble buys in Russia , 2.7 times what a dollar buys in the US, Russia gets alot of bang out of its defense budget of $149 billion, about $401 billion (Purchasing power) compared to US $997 billion. Add to this Russia is now a war economy in the war with Ukraine and concentrates its forces in one theatre not four as the US spread out over Indo-Pacific, Europe and Middle East and Korean peninsula. This is the reason behind most of DJT's actions reflecting realities in defense. Shut down the Middle East theatre which is also what the American people want by moving everything in the direction of economic progress, turning down the revolutionary and sectarian ideologies that roiled Egypt of Suez, Iraq and Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 60's and dragged the world into costly insane wars. And do this with the consensus of Russia, China and India. Wind down the war in Europe- accept the Russians as a Northern European power with a settlement of the Ukraine conflict, and let Germany lead Europe's defense. Manage the relationship in the Indo-Pacific with India and South and Southwest Asian investments in economic infrastructure that will offset China's rapid growth of the last three decades by incentivizing South Asia and South western Asia parts of which were called the Middle East by the Britons and now can be rengaged in the South /Southwest Asian group of nations led by the US. This is the policy for the next 25 years to 2050 that a Russia, Germany, US, China, India consensus sees as a constructive future for the people of the world.   ...

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Speaking at a fireside chat at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington D.C. Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman describes the task of lifting hundreds of millions from poverty in India done over the last 10 years. When China did this for about 400 million people by 2000 it had the support of the people of the US and Europe and the US opened its doors to favor China in its supply chain. How will the US and European Union respond to the same situation in India? This was accomplished in the US and Europe by the 1930's building on the work in the 1900 period. "We are reaching near saturation in providing the basic facilities to the people of the country. Have we removed these many number of people from poverty and lifted them out." "And that is to give them some good house to live in which is made of concrete and not of thatched roof with toilets in them, with drinking water reaching them through pipes, electricity, and a good road, not just the village, but also to streets in the village, and then connect them to the nearest highway; connect them with good transport facility and so on. And financial inclusion so that each member of the household has a bank account and they get every such benefit, which has to reach them, but directly into their bank account rather than through a middle agency. On skilling people "We are now focusing very much on skilling people, each according to their level. Skilling centers are now spread all over the country. The gradation of the skilling varies according to the individuals. Businesses and private sector entrepreneurs are also tied into it so that there is a link between the kind of training businesses want and actually those who are getting the training so that immediately they can get recruited. There will be a lot of skilling emphasis. On expanding the formalization of the economy getting rid of "the grey layer" India's digitization programme will be going on at full throttle and it'll cover most aspects of our lives. Today it covers health, education, and financial transactions. We expect it to move on to other areas as well so that there is greater ease of living and transparency, the economy gets even more formal. And therefore with that, you find  the economy gets its full strength coming on board, rather than having a second layer, which remains in the grey area. ...

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"To Invest (at home), To Align (with allies), To Compete (with the world)" sums up the approach of president Biden with China. It also sums up the approach at home and overseas. Biden senior adviser, Jake Sullivan at Council of Foreign Relations sets out the framework and path for managing US-China relations into the future for many decades. Here at the Council of Foreign Relations he shows how- through careful study of the relationship's history, the changes in the relationship, and where it is today in 2024. Having participated in previous administrations Jake understood how it has evolved, where mistakes were made by both China and the US, where misperceptions took hold and need for clarification, for action. The old Strategic Dialogue followed by Paulsen under Bush 2000-2008 allowed the relationship to be guided by business interests, -without any clear strategy or idea where it was going except maximizing interests of business on both sides- was continued by Kerry under Obama 2008-2016. Sullivan, Blinken and Biden have built a Strategic Economic Cooperation Framework that has clear goals on the American side and goals on the Chinese side, and work between the two presidents and their cabinet ministers. Trump 2016-2020 rejected the earlier Strategic Dialogue but was not able to set up a sound framework that would guide future relations for decades. Sullivan helped set up a new framework around three principles- To Invest, To Align, and To Compete.   Here he describes how the plan to invest trillions in infrastructure in the US was part of this plan's principle To Invest. On Align it was to derisk not decouple by reducing the excessive concentration of supply chains in China, that was revealed as a problem in the pandemic years. Building up manufacturing at home and in India, Vietnam and Japan. Align also was to have allies Japan, South Korea and India to be aligned with the US policy. It also meant that all three countries would follow the same framework for their economies To Invest, To Align, To Compete.  By combining the strengths of the 2 largest economic centers Seoul/Tokyo with New Delhi/Sydney in Indo-Pacific the leveraging effect of US strength could be felt to support its position. And third to compete on level field so that America retained control of its technologies and implementing exports controls. And sharing this in  open communication with China that the US was protecting its technology and interests the way China has done in the past for its interests. The benefit of open communication even where there are differences had the advantage of not turning this into open rhetoric that damaged relations as had happened under previous administrations. Wang Yi on China's side having seen and approached it with careful study and reflection had similar goals to stabilize and put the relationship on a sound footing. Sullivan met extensively with Wang Yi in meetings in several locations around the world. Ministers Yellen, Raimondo, Blinken, Kerry, were sent to China for extensive discussions as part of this strategy in 2023 leading to remarkable change in the mood and confidence in US- China relations after tumult in 2016-2020 and uncertainty in previous administrations. Much credit goes to president Biden and Jake Sullivan, Anthony Blinken, and also to Wang Yi and Jinping in no way diminishing their own initiative, so that for the first time in decades the US China relationship is now on a stable footing. Both countries faced common challenges around counter narcotics, around climate change, and other issues. These are being addressed. Competition is managed carefully and no rhetoric is taking place so that the largest two economies and about 1.7 billion in US and China and 2 billion people who are allies in India/Indonesia/Vietnam/ Korea/Japan living on the same planet earth can have economic and other cooperation  with different cultures, economic structures and systems of government. The result of such a framework also gives the basis for cooperation with America's allies to invest in Africa and Latin America and in the people of these two continents as another level of alignment and investment for a safer better world. ...

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India recorded 100,000 cases in one day on April 5, 2021. About half of these cases are in one state Maharashtra. Most of the cases are in about 6 states. Super spreader events such as cricket matches, weddings and social gatherings, political rallies with elections in states of Tamilnadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Holi festival, are increasing the rate of infection. People have become lax in wearing masks and following the safety protocol after cases dropped to less than 15,000 for the whole country in February. This report says variants also are playing apart. Google Mobility Reports have shown that movements around retail areas dropped to about 80% below regular levels in the middle of the national lockdown in spring of 2020, and have come back up to about 20% below normal levels. When the winter surge did not happen, and the vaccination drive started in January in India people became less vigilant, allowing infections to increase. The vaccination drive is accelerating and open to everyone over 45 years. About 80 million doses have been given and the target is still for 300 million doses by August.  ...

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The Oxford vaccine is showing promising results and is expected to be authorized for use by December 2020. The vaccine being developed in partnership with Astra Zeneca PLC for marketing and Serum Institute of India for mass manufacturing is shown to be proven 90% effective in preventing infections in clinical trials. The partners say there were no serous safety events and the vaccine has proven 62% to 90% effective with an average of 70%.  This vaccine is significant because it is being developed with this partnership not seeking profits from this venture, providing it at cost and keeping the price to about $4 a dose compared to competitors Moderna and Pfizer whose vaccine is expected to be at $24 a dose. The Oxford vaccine also uses existing technology for vaccines and manufacturing is being done in India with the world's top manufacturer of vaccines. By using existing technology unlike the Pfizer and Moderna technology Oxford has taken an approach that could prove to be unique by minimizing side effects for vaccines that are being developed with such speed. By not requiring refrigeration at very low temperatures the vaccine makes itself ready for immediate and widespread uses all over the world. By use in its home country India with its large population Oxford vaccine can gain even wider acceptance because of India's long experience in pharmaceutical technology and manufacturing. Of particular interest is the study of 23,000 participants showing that the 90% effective dosage is one that only requires half a dose for the first shot. This say scientists is because the vaccine first dose prepares the body for a more powerful second dose and creates the maximum effect. This means the vaccine can be used for more doses than 2 full doses. It can be stored in a fridge making it easy to use in many countries. The full study will have 60,000 participants spread across U.S. Britain, Brazil South Africa and India. ...

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The auto sector has an outsized effect on economic growth that is not easily grasped. The IMF sees a fifth of slowdown in growth of global gross domestic product and a third of world trade coming just from low demand for autos. The auto sector feeds into demand for steel, aluminium, copper, plastic and electronics, so it feeds into other sectors. Aging populations, stagnant incomes, ride sharing, and economic headwinds on trade for China, slower demand with lower economic activity in India from bad loans and low credit in the finance sector, all have cut into growth. Tariffs from president Trump and tit for tat tariffs increase costs and cut into profits. In Europe there is added factor of mandated drop in carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by 2021. The new technology will increase costs of autos by 800 to 5000 euros and add 5-11% to the selling price, reducing sales by about 5%.  A fast growing market is India but companies such as Ford and GM have moved out as it slows down. Higher emissions standards in India for 2020 are likely to increase prices in a very price sensitive market. Lower availability of credit in China and India have led to drop in sales of about 15% in both major markets for autos since mid 2018.   ...

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The influence of regional political parties in India continues as the Congress party depends on the Samajwadi party in Uttar Pradesh led by Mulam Singh Yadav for its majority in parliament in 2013. This follows the withdrawal of support first of the party of Mamta Banerjee in West Bengal in 2012 on retail foreign investment issue, and the withdrawal of support of the DMK party in Tamilnadu state over the Sri Lankan issue in 2013. Not only are the regional political parties based in a particular state, they are also dominated by political personalities, such as that of Yadav in Uttar Pradesh (UP), Banerjee in W. Bengal, and Karunanidhi in Tamilnadu. Tamilnadu is in the south with a language Tamil of Dravidian origin, and W. Bengal is in the northeast near the Burmese and Bangladesh border with its own language Bengali of very different origin and completely different script. The regional parties have little in common. Some like the DMK in Tamilnadu are small parties with 18 member in parliament. Congress coalition government has 230 members and needs 270 for a parliamentary majority....

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Bharat Jagdeo, vice president of Guyana tells the WSJ it wants to produce as much oil as it can quickly before renewble energy takes over. Guyana has $40 billion of Mobil projects that can add 1 million barrels a day by 2030. Non-OPEC producers US, Brazil and Guyana can boost output by 5.1 million barrels a day, OPEC+ can only increase production by 800,000 barrels a day. This means the US can help keep oil prices at levels that help India/Indonesia, Europe and the US grow.  Brazil and Guyana do not want OPEC mandated production cuts.

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For the first time in three decades US economic growth will be much faster than China's. Second quarter 2021 growth in the US was 12.2% compared to 7.9% in China, and will continue to be much higher for five consecutive quarters. This report in the WSJ says it is the result of the US response to the Covid pandemic. The US vaccination drive, massive fiscal stimulus and near zero interest rates have helped, including the confidence generated by the $1 trillion infrastructure investments planned for this decade. Over the longer term Capital Economic estimates China's GDP around 2030 will drop to 2% growth with demographic decline, just as the demographic factors favor Indian growth to levels that China has seen in the last two decades. This was the plan and vision set out by the Indian prime minister for 2047, on the 100th anniversary of independence. For the future government help has helped US households accumulate $2.6 trillion in excess household savings, which Moody's estimates is 7 times that in China.  In the longer term gaps will have narrowed between Asia and Europe, the US, which is a good thing. More will need to be done in Africa and Latin America. Much of the talk about who leads ignores the local needs in cities and towns across all parts of the world for a better quality of life, better education, better nutrition, better healthcare, meeting aspirations of young people, and supporting hope for a better future. ...

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The target is to move two way trade between China and India from the 2005 figure of $17 billion to $40 billion by 2010.