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The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...

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Of the 45 million US student loan borrowers in 2025- only 11 million are on time with payments. The rest seeing sharp credit score declines that limit their access to home loans, other credit, or increase the costs of access to credit. This limits access to housing, and other needs for this group, it also affects demand in the economy. A recent WSJ report showed Moody Analytics research that 80% of US consumer spending is now done by 20% of the top income earners in the US. Decline in demand from this group will affect the economic growth in the US and how well the stock markets do. This will affect the job growth in the economy month to month.  This means with inaction from the DJT administration and the SCOTUS lack of comprehension of the economic aspects of this issue in ruling out action taken by the Biden administration- that this failure to take action on relief poses added risks to the US economy in 2025. It also means uneven and unbalanced growth where some groups upper income are favored by the virtue of the way the economy operates leaving many young people out of the benefits of growth. This adds to the general feeling of frustration and discontent after the pandemic and after cost of living surges in 2022-2024. It also means university education is no longer affordable or accessible to young people. Other issues play into this such as the surging cost of university education and action needs to be taken to bring this into line with earlier post 1945 patterns where university education was affordable and taken up. The increase in apprenticeship programs is a good thing, yet the gradual turning away of young men from college education is a serious danger to the cultural literacy in the US in 2020-2030. Leaving aside Ivy leagues making state college and universities affordable is one of the big problems needing to be solved as a priority in the US.  ...

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Intel Board members disagreements on how to run the company 2025. Lip-Bu Tan replaced Pat Gelsinger as CEO only a few months back.  Pat Gelsinger had a close relationship with Biden and also had close relations with VP JD Vance. Lip Bu-Tan has no such relations and is seen by DJT and Senator Cotton as "conflicted" in his ties to China as an early investor in Chinese chipmakers. DJT calls for Tan's immediate resignation as CEO of Intel in 2025. Lip-Bu Tan left the Board a few months before the ouster of Gelsinger. It now appears that the ouster of Gelsinger as Intel's recovery proceeded but only gradually was a poor decision of the Board.  This report also shows an acting head of Intel Yeary recently considering selling of the manufacturing business to TSMC which is a staggering revelation considering that the US is trying to build its own dominant chip making business in the US, which it had ceded to TSMC in Taiwan after inventing the computer chip. ...

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A look at graphs showing how much and where the $1.9 trillion aid for the pandemic is going for households, businesses, local governments and programs. This package of aid is ready to pass the US Congress in March 2021.

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The Biden administration has announced a 100 day review of strategic vulnerabilities in America's supply chain. President Biden has said he supports funding of incentives for production in the US, to become independent of China and Taiwan. From 1990 onwards chip production in the US went from 37% to about 12% today. It will now go back up. Biden's National Security Adviser noted in an article in Foreign Policy that advancing industrial policy like Japan and France once considered out of tune is now essential, "something close to obvious."  At one point in the post war period America's most advanced jet engines were made in West Berlin, surrounded by the army of Russia and its ally the GDR. There is new realization that dependence on Taiwan which makes 22% of semiconductors worldwide and 50% of advanced designs cannot go on the way it is exposing a critical vulnerability for American industry. A 40% tax credit for the cost of new semiconductor fabrication plants and other incentives are now supported in the Biden administration. The whole idea is to turn this around quickly where US no longer depends on uncertain supplies from overseas. Four critical areas of strategic vulnerability will be reviewed- pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, batteries, and strategic materials. ...

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More than half of the money in the $1.9 trillion aid package that was passed in the US Congress will go to people who need it most, the unemployed, the poor and struggling Americans on low incomes. The pandemic hit this group very hard. US president Biden has taken on a new role of supporting the poor, not just the working class as he has done with his roots in a working class district in Delaware. Biden says the aid will give the working class and struggling Americans "a fighting chance."

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An outline of ways in which the Biden $1.9 trillion aid package will help ordinary Americans hit hard by the pandemic- the unemployed, people on low incomes, part time workers, the poor, and the struggling working class.

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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Peter Goodman who covers the consequences in the lives of ordinary people of the industrial changes going on around us, gives this report from Michigan. He shows how today's Michigan, was home to Henry Ford's automobile plants that made it a major part of the industrial revolution in the US after 1910, when Ford's first assembly line manufacturing was set up in Highland Park, Detroit. Industrial growth till 1960 made the US the leading industrial nation in the world. Followed by Japanese imports and auto manufacturing shifting to Asia and Mexico, that led to deindustrialization and neglect in Michigan and the midwestern US.  Key aspects of resurgence today is coming from lessons learned in the period of deindustrialization. From labor and management not working together, from huge pension obligations and costs that had to be overcome, that made existing wage and cost structures uncompetitive with Asian manufacturing. Labor concessions in the last decade have made a rearrangement of cost structure possible, yet along with the financial crisis of 2008 further worsened worker incomes. The first steps of a return for Michigan to its role in the early industrialization of America, the new labor contract negotiated in 2023, the support of president Biden and the government, the investment in the new technology of electric car manufacturing by Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Goodman shows how the state, federal government, community colleges and other educational institutions training workers and students, and car companies are working together to promote interests of workers and communities. There is uncertainty created about the fewer parts in the electric car manufacturing process, automation advances, and fewer jobs. Yet the process is a transition over many years and this is accepted by the Biden administration and by the industry as it responds to slower demand for electric cars in 2024. This provides the time to bring up new training programs for workers, enable the funding of new research into battery technologies that would bring down the cost and make electric car prices accessible to the wider population. Uncertainty and fears about the transition are counteracted by the effort the Biden administration is making to bring up all manufacturing and to make large investments in American manufacturing.   ...

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Electric vehicles (EV's) get a tax credit under the Biden Climate Bill also called the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. To qualify for the tax credit of upto $7500 buyers of EV's have to meet income and other requirements. Only cars with final assembly in the US qualify for the tax credit which should help boost American EV manufacturing capabilities and technology. This removes the problem of automobile job losses for factories shipped overseas.  EV's must not be priced above $25,000 for 2 year used cars, and $55,000 for new cars. SUV's can go upto $80,000. Income limits (as AGI) are $300,000 for joint filers, 150,000 for single filers for new cars. For old cars it is $150,000 for joint filers and $75,000 for single filers.

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This NYT report says there is scandal fatigue among Republicans and a sense about Mr. Trump that his time has passed. Much of the political gains made by Mr. Trump in 2017 were a result of the failures of president Bush within the Republican party wasting national resources on 2 remote wars while infrastructure was neglected, and the neglect of manufacturing communities in the US with jobs outsourced to China that presidents Bush and Obama failed to stop. With president Biden ending these wars period. And with Mr. Biden getting the legislation passed to put workers and families, American manufacturing, American infrastructure to the top of the agenda, the focus has shifted to China and Russia two countries that gained during the largely failed Clinton, Bush and Obama presidencies. The Ukraine war and China's belligerence over Taiwan remain an ever present risk. President Biden has articulated American resolve in this situation in a way that matches another president Harry Truman when he addressed the Soviet expansion in Berlin, then Greece, then across Eastern Europe, not seeking conflict yet not shirking responsibility for the free world. It is this new context in which the sordid affairs of a political outsider are presented to the ordinary American struggling to make a living during a cost of living crisis in 2023. ...

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When it comes to essential policy Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress can and will work together. A roughly $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed in the US Senate. Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell says there are issues that are popular with both Democrats and Republicans.  He said in an interview with the WSJ - "The American people, divided, sent us a 50-50 Senate, and a narrowly divided House. I don't think the message of that was, 'Do absolutely nothing.' And if you are going to find an area of potential agreement, I can't think of a better one than infrastructure, which is desperately needed." The infrastructure bill passed this week 69-30 in the US Senate. McConnell thanked president Biden for getting the Democrats ready to compromise to pass the bill. Biden's long experience in the US Congress compares with another US president, when getting Congressional action from both parties was needed. Lyndon Johnson had this type of long experience in the US Congress which enabled him to reach compromise with Republicans to achieve goals in civil rights legislation and in passage of Social Security during the 1960's. In this sense Biden is right for the 2020's when national rebuilding is the task before America. ...

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On Jan 19, 2023 the US hit its debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion. Republicans control the House of Representatives by only a few votes after a strong showing in midterms by Democrats who control the Senate. A small section of the Republican party insists that raising the debt ceiling- a task performed by the House of Representatives- should only be done with serious cuts to Biden programs to help workers and families during a cost of living crisis. Biden says he will not negotiate, simply won't.  This report in NYT by Jim Tankersley, says president Biden in the last resort could resort to the 14th Amendment which says: "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions shall not be questioned." What this means is that in the last resort if Republicans insist on serious cuts because of a faction within the party, and not because the whole party supports it, Mr. Biden could continue public borrowings to pay social security and make other payments. Moody's says this would lead to a rise in borrowing costs temporarily but would not lead to a recession, and have long term benefits as the debt ceiling could not be applied in the future. It would be challenged by Republicans and go to the Supreme Court which would have to decide on the issue: "the validity of the public debt of the United States shall not be questioned." This drew 1338 comments on NYT. ...

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In a major move president Biden backs suspending IP protection for Covid vaccines, therapeutics and tests. In fall 2020 India and South Africa submitted a resolution to WTO to suspend IP protection for Covid vaccines, therapeutics and tests, From the Indian perspective this decision comes a bit late when India has already vaccinated over 1 billion people using the Astra Zeneca Oxford vaccine. The Oxford vaccine was made available to Indian manufacturing companies to make locally in a way the could be done at low cost to meet needs of over 1 billion people in India. From the perspective of pharmaceutical companies this is giving away technology even if this was a public health emergency, as shown in this editorial from WSJ.

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Greg Ip looks at the Chinese economy its strengths and and many weaknesses including debt and declining foreign investment in 2023, as president Xi visits the US this coming week. With a slowing economy, high youth unemployment and excessive debt, China remains a resilient economy because it has strengths in manufacturing. It would take the US the next decade to build up its manufacturing capabilities after neglecting this important field with mistaken policies for three decades under presidents Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Obama and Trump. President Biden is taking steps for this new manufacturing revival to take place.

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Two women Claudia Sheinbaum of Morena party and Xochitl Galvez of National Action party are contesting the presidential election in Mexico in 2024. President Lopez Obrador is from the Morena party, he was former mayor of Mexico city and led the socialists to government in 2018 with his book presenting his message "Saying No to Corruption, Violence and Trump's Wall." He won by a landslide and during his term he targeted corrupt officials and worked with the US Trump administration, and now Biden administration on tackling migration and border issues.

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The Biden administration and Taiwan are accelerating the development of supply chain in India to tackle a chip shortage worldwide. Taiwan seeks to come up with an early agreement with India on tariff reductions for semiconductor components. The $7.5 billion plant investment would provide 5G electronics chips as well as automobile chips. India is studying various plant locations and 50% financial support after 2023 is planned with tax breaks and financial incentives.

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Emma Tucker describes the elation in the News Desk and for reporters of the WSJ on August 1, 2024  following the release of a young reporter Evan Gershkovich held by Russia for coverage in sensitive Russian regions. Emma Tucker said-    "We are grateful to President Biden and his administration for working with persistence and determination to bring Evan home rather than see him shipped off to a Russian work camp for a crime he didn’t commit. We are also grateful to the other governments that helped bring an end to Evan’s nightmare, in particular the German government that played such a critical role." Who is Emma Tucker and why does it matter?-   It matters because of monopolistic/oligopolistic hold over communication of news in the public space that belongs to public service since Lincoln, TR, FDR, Kennedy in the US, and it's shaping of public perceptions such as no action needed on climate change fires/floods, or on infrastructure investment in a dilapidated US. Emma Tucker studied in Sussex and in New Mexico before studying philosophy, economics and politics at Oxford. She becomes a graduate trainee at the Financial Times  in 1990 continuing for 30 years right into Covid years (FT now owned by employee owned Nikkei since 2015 acquired from Pearson for $1.32 billion). In 2022 she was selected to run Rupert Murdoch's Wall Street Journal acquired by him for $5 billion- including $2.25 billion premium- from the Bancroft family that owned it and Dow Jones since 1928.   ...

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Actas or slips like receipts from every time a voter votes are generated from voting machines in Venezuela. Enough actas were collected in the Venezuela elections that show a landslide win with a 38% margin for Gonzalez over Maduro. The Maduro government has not accepted the result. It shows 7.3 million votes for Gonzalez, a former diplomat, to 3.3 million for Maduro the successor of Chavez, says the Wall Street Journal. For president Biden it was the surge in Venezuelan migrants flow and the refusal of Maduro government to take back migrants making deportation difficult, that precipitated the immigration crisis as an issue in the 2024 elections. The problem was tackled by closing the border with Biden taking executive action, after the law closing the border cleared the Senate in February but was held up in the House by Mr. Trump. Trump hoped to benefit from the Border issue to get elected in November 2024 held it up. That law was negotiated by Republicans McConnell and Lankford and Biden. Kamala Harris says the first thing she will do if elected is to pass that law. Republicans like the Tories in the UK are now seen as pandering on the issue to keep power, not keen on resolving it once and for all. As we show from the example of Mette Frederiksen in Denmark and her far sighted thinking it is possible to be good for workers and families, and tough on immigration that hurts workers by creating like foreign wars a huge and unnecessary distraction. Why for instance must workers and families live from paycheck to paycheck because of misgovernance in Asia or Africa or Arab world ,or deliberately created wars to empty countries of population as in Arab lands. Taking the issue up in the countries themselves with whatever action is needed was the right answer from the beginning, and lost on Merkel and other leaders in the US and Europe. Lessons are learned and now action must be taken. ...

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The Independence Hall Philadelphia, speech by Joe Biden was in retrospect a turning point in America from the chaotic politics of the last 5 years, following a decades long fracturing of the social fabric of America. That fracturing had many causes, all of which have been identified by president Biden and leaders in Congress such as Mr. Schumer and Senators Coon, Hickenlooper, and others, who are working nonstop on legislation and funding of America's new priorities. These are priorities of protecting working class families, building their savings, supporting education and healthcare for working class families, building back better America's crumbling infrastructure, tackling climate change, financing renewable energy, rebuilding America as a manufacturing leader for the world. It is because of this effort that candidates who support this effort prevailed in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona for Democrats to retain the Senate and be competitive in the House of Representatives. Only complacency led to unexpected losses in New York state for the House of Representatives leading to loss of the House by a small margin. This NYT report looks at what happened in 2022 and what this means for securing the country's key priorities to build hope for the future of America and of the free world.  ...

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No one in Northern Ireland wants to go back to the sectarian clashes of the twentieth century says one resident of the region. Most people recall the divided barricaded border with watchtowers and helicopters with extreme anguish. All that was dismantled long ago. But Northern Ireland still looks to the outside for help. Will president Biden bring new investment in the region? Can the Sinn Fein and DUP be persuaded to work together with US participation. A new generation has moved away from the sectarian to the economic issues of the cost of living and provision of public services in education and healthcare across the region. This was affirmed by Sinn Fein winning 27 seats the largest bloc in the 2022 election where focus was on economic issues and the quality of life. Because of Mr. Biden's very personal connection to Ireland there is much hope in Ireland for a new chapter to be written again. There is also a different sentiment in Britain with Keir Starmer's experience as human rights adviser to the Northern Ireland Policing Board. Starmer attributes his decision to go into politics to this experience seeing the changes he could make in Northern Ireland from the inside. The switch to a government by Labour could come at a good time for Northern Ireland and for Scotland.  ...

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Biden's love of Irish poetry comes through at critical moments in his career. His efforts reading his uncle Ed Finnegan's book of W. B. Yeats poetry and trying to memorize some lines as a child to  help overcome his stutter. His quoting of Seamus Haney at critical times in his career- and after winning the 2020 election. He also quoted Haney in the Irish parliament this week using Haney's translation of the Greek playwright Sophocles- Haney's The Cure at Troy. In a way says NPR Biden found his own voice through Yeats. One can see from the speech at the Irish parliament that the words of a Yeats or a Haney has a magical effect on him- helps him come alive and become invested with a youthful energy, and a new found vigor that comes from purposeful living. He combines Haney on hope with his reference to Chinese president Xi and being asked what defines America- his answer "Possibilities." 

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WHite children born in 1992 fared worse in income levels than white children born in 1978. The reverse is true for black children- the income gap narrowing for black children born after 1992 and widening for white children born after 1992. In this unusual twist lies some of the angst about social divisions in America in 2024 where income mobility is a major issue. The Biden administration has achieved a lot with bipartisan legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act, cancelling student loan debt or reducing it, creating 16 million jobs, bringing supply chain disruption inflation down from 9% to 3%, and yet more action is needed. Inflation in housing that for 25% of apartment renters takes 50% of household income is a challenge. Biden proposed a 5% cap on rent raises, Harris proposed capping rent payment at 30% of household income and  government aid for amounts above 30%. By contrast Trump program promises little to help with housing costs, and economic policy is limited to tax cuts heavily skewed to wealthier households. ...

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Brazil president Lula at COP30 Belem, Brazil- mixing oil drilling plans with plans for climate change for Amazon forests. This is not a contradiction in today's world as many nations including China, India are depending on coal and moving forward with solar and wind energy, and the US is also drilling for oil and it's private sector continues moving forward on renewable energy. In 2025 cost of living action for working class families means getting cheaper sources of energy, and at the same time climate change requires new invention and scientific advances in developing solar, wind, nuclear and other renewable energy. US Biden administration accepted this combination approach and it is also practiced under the current US Republican administration with different degrees of emphasis to meet current and future challenges in the best way possible.

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The vast Permian Shale Basin is becoming more of a factory with disciplined large producers in 2024. More than one third of the production is from three producers Diamondback Energy, Exxon Mobil and Occidental compared to 30 mostly wildcatter companies in 2014. These companies are not likely to increase production in the way smaller companies did over the last decade when they increased production by over 10%. 

Over the period from now 2024 to 2030 production increases will be limited by geologic limits, older shale fields. Most onshore basins outside of Permian in the US are actually declining in production and production there is at about 4 million barrels a day.

Total production is about 13 million barrels of oil a day under president Biden and will only reach 13.5 million barrels a day by 2030. Employment 200,000 at the peak in 2014 is now a little over 100,000.