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Impact of Iran War on European economy- Germany's growth 1.3% and 1.7% growth in 2026 and 2027 down to 0.6% and 0.9%.  With inflation at 2.8% and 2.9% from 2.0% and 2.3%. This is the consensus of all forecasts including Ifo Institute and Kiel Institute, which also see prices coming down in the second half, the Iran war impact mostly first half only. Clearly Germany will be able to ride out the Iran crisis and oil at $120 in April 2026. A big part of this is that there is a trillion dollars in investment that Germany's Merz has initiated and this makes a huge difference. France is self sufficient in energy with its reliance on nuclear energy. Germany imports only 6% of its energy from the Hormuz straits which means supplies will be available just that prices will be higher. Germany also can accelerate its renewable energy shift which would pay dividends in the future. Germany also practices conservation of energy better than most countries, similar to Japan, getting the same GNP with lower and lower energy needs. If the US were to do what Germany and Japan have done in energy conservation there would be no need for Hormuz, US could supply Japan with energy. ...

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The long weariness of the war years and the uncertainty facing Ukrainians in the eastern regions torn by the conflict as the war moves to a peace settlement and talks with US, EU, and Russian cooperation.

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Though she is not popular with Angela Merkel's wing of the CDU as shown in comments here in DW.com, Annalena Baerbock through her experience as Foreign Minister and her unconventional style, her habit of respect for the dignity of the many nation states in the UN, her natural empathy, may actually be a better choice today for the UN than a German career foreign service diplomat. Different issues are faced by the United Nations than the domestic and European centric issues faced in Berlin and in the approach to government in the Federal Republic. She has often been a keen listener and an eager student of international affairs in her interactions with other countries and cultures, and Baerbock may be an underappreciated asset of the Federal Republic of Germany in the early decades of the 21st century.

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Merkel tells Hungarian news portal Partizan that the Baltic States and Poland made efforts to reduce efforts for dialogue with Russia, and that this dialogue and meetings were also made difficult during the Covid pandemic. Merkel did not address other issues of EU and US relations with Russia over the decade when Russia was not integrated into European structures as a Northern European power. Britain and Netherlands also supported Poland and the Baltic States in efforts to keep NATO as a force and counterweight to Russia in Europe, something Merkel did not cover. Merkel appears to have been selective in covering only this issue in EU-Russian relations and not the larger issues that Merkel never addressed of ending the Cold War structure of NATO that Britain, Netherlands and Poland had favored. The result is that without German or US leadership the Cold War structure of NATO favored by Britain, Netherlands and Poland has been expanded to include Sweden and  Finland, and without a clear resolution of the Ukraine issue created a new situation. This situation is the return of the Cold War in another form with Russia and China, losing the opportunities presented to both sides to use trade and improvements in standards of living to create a durable peace for economic development and addressing the problems that have led to deindustrialization of US and European Union countries. ...

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Coalition Against Climate Disinformation at the COP30 Belem Brazil Summit. CAAD says about the state of disinformation-

"Big Carbon's spending and Big Tech's algorithms are preventing us from seeing and hearing one another online. Instead, we're exposed to one lie after another."

The frequent fires and floods all over the world which happen suddenly and quickly show the effects and costs of climate change are real. Actions need to be taken on climate change even as the cost of living crisis and struggles of people in China,India and Africa and in the US and EU have to be considered for access to electricity and for cost of living concerns. Fossil only provides a short term transition to a long term plan for the future based on renewable energy, and the fight for climate change action to be renewed by EU, China, Brazil and India as the US sorts out its own problems with the transition.

 

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Foreign capital in India's nuclear sector-100 Gigawatt target at $226 billion cost by 2047. An important component of plan to be carbon neutral by 2070. Changes in legislation passed to get US and French companies into the Indian nuclear sector.

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UK Labour party Manifesto of 2024 called for the abolition of the House of Lords- The Guardian says it is "doorstep issue" and not too late to do it in 2026. The House of Lord's would go and be replaced with an upper house chamber more representative of the people of Britain. The Guardian calls it the "rotten house of sleazy patronage" and says that it is not peripheral to the dismal ratings of PM Starmer and Labour, that Starmer's instincts in the Opposition were correct.

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WSJ and NYT, Wash.Post exaggerated defense of Denmark's claims to Greenland. DJT says there is nothing in writing that says Denmark owns Greenland. The NYT, WSJ cite 1916 Treaty that transferred Danish West Indies to US for $25 million.  The agreement in 1916 said Denmark would extend its economic and political arrangements across Greenland, which was the status quo, but this did not give ownership of the island to Greenland. In 1947 US president Harry Truman offered $100 million for Greenland. This was a generous offer and would be around $1.5 billion in today's terms. The agreement of 1916 is superseded by Admiral Perry leading the US Navy's exploration of Greenland all the way to the north of Greenland at the Arctic northern most points in Greenland. The US planted its flag on Greenland at the time. DJT on Truth Social planting the flag is nothing new. Admiral Perry is never mentioned by NYT, Wash Post and WSJ, the television media and Google internet other AI, which gives the Denmark government an opportunity to misrepresent US claims to Greenland since 1890's and leave out Adm. Perry's discoveries in Greenland. By comparison a few Danish boats and Norwegian boats landed in Greenland. Worse it sets up the Europeans for actions that Scott Bessent says are "unwise". It is mainly Denmark and the Nordics who are in opposition, the rest of Europe has no stake in Greenland and would be better off with the US owning Greenland. Danes were a colonial power and cannot bring up the Greenland Inuit population of 50,000 smaller that what would fit into a baseball stadium as they had never sought to help the Inuits. As recently as 1803-1848 Denmark was struggling to abolish the slave trade in its colonies in the West Indies- it is something that can easily be looked up. It was the US with it's Declaration of Independence by Thomas Jefferson that laid out the vision of a free people which also fought the Civil War under Lincoln by the 1860's with loss of millions of lives for a free and fair society, something the European colonial powers failed to do. Denmark should accept the offer of $1.5 billion from the US consistent with the US offer from Harry Truman in 1947, and not use the European Union to create dissension within Europe as it has done so far in a misleading effort that does not serve the interests of Europe. ...

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Germany's Bundestag parliament vote eases constitutional "debt brake" March 2025. CDU's Merz and the SPD join with Greens to provide the two thirds majority to remove a constitutional debt brake put in in the Merkel years. Germany's dilapidated infrastructure from rail to other transport and public facilities, to poor childcare are a sign of how the Merkel debt brake has hurt the German economy. Four years of the Greens SPD coalition government of Scholz were wasted when the SPD and Greens wanted investment in infrastructure starting in 2021 but included Lindner of the super cautious Free Democrats as Finance Minister who opposed spending and vetoed it every step of the way. The results can be seen in Frankfurt and other cities and in the underinvestment in Deutsche Bahn rail and all over the country. Merz of the CDU and the SPD and Greens finally fix this problem starting with removing the debt brake.  What happened to Lindner and Free Democrats? They did not make the threshold of 5% for representation in the German parliament, the Bundestag in Berlin. Lindner resigned for his failure. ...

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Inflation is higher in the Atlanta and Phoenix regions in 2024 compared to 2020, a persistent challenge for Harris-Walz and Biden.

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The Guardian looks back at 2023 and covers the work of scientists from US, Germany and Brazil showing the damage. NASA scientist James Hansen tells The Guardian that with the current stage of politics and inaction on climate change young people in the world need to take over. Scientists at the Japan Meteorological Agency measured temperatures at 0.53 degrees centigrade higher than the global average 1990 -2021. This was higher than the previous high reached in 2016 of 0.35 degrees centigrade. Over the long term the world is considered to be 1.2 degrees hotter than preindustrial times, by experts. Included is the report "Hothouse Earth" by the Potsdam Institute of Climate research and other experts on the speed of the global warming.

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Perseverance at NASA, and after eight years of patient hard work overcoming the hurdle of doing the Mars Mission during coronavirus lockdown, lead to the final launch of the spacecraft to Mars on July 30, 2020. The mission craft is aptly called Perseverance. Names matter, the ship James Cook used to make the first trip of discovery to Australia was aptly called Endeavour and a replica can still be seen at the British Museum. The mission will provide clues to why the planet Mars once warm and wet turned into a dry desert, what about its ancient history made this happen. The mission will send rock samples back to earth, investigate the geology and climate on the planet, search for any signs of life, and look at the prospects for human exploration. A small helicopter Ingenuity will make the first flight on another planet.  Some facts about this mission- It can only be launched every 26 months as the earth and the planet Mars have to be on the same side of the sun which happens every 26 months for 3 weeks.  It costs 500 million dollars just to store the craft if the mission was delayed 26 months because of the pandemic. Other than the cost the reason for launching now without error was the need to give America enthusiasm about new frontiers to be explored even as it conducted the fight against the pandemic. NASA has 2000 scientists and engineers at JPL in California and 400 technical workers at KSC in Florida who do the work for missions. This mission used an essential team that did the work during the lockdown even as other scientists and engineers worked from home.   ...

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Of 26 competitive House districts in coming midterms of 2026 in the US about 16 have median income of $86,000 (close to US median $79000), looking like Caroline County in Virginia. There Democrat Spanberger who won handily by 70% in the wealthy suburbs was even with Republican opponent with a deficit of 13 votes. It is this type of County that will determine the midterms says the WSJ Analysis. Republicans and Democrats face even headwinds in such counties, Cost of living continues in 2025 to be the concern for voters, similar to what it was in 2024.

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Increase in hardship withdrawals from Vanguard 401(k)s in the US from 2.1% in 2021 to 2.8% in 2022 shows stress in household finances by Feb 2023.