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New German chancellor Merz's personal popularity is hitting new lows in April 2025 even before a new government takes charge in Germany. Merz speaks understandably 60%, trustworthy 21%, strong leader 40%, results of Stern magazine survey April 2025. In a fragmented scene for political parties Merz takes office as the Ukraine war continues, and new tariff challenges are raised by the US for German exports.

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The FCAS project for next generation fighter jet and air defense system is intended to reduce dependence on US made F-35 jets at a cost of $100 billion euros. It will be built by Dassault and Airbus. Macron and Merz meet in Toulon, France for the project to move forward in August 2025.

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Largest drone and missile attacks on Kviv and Lviv of the war on August 20 2025 soon after DJT meeting with Putin in Alaska and EU leaders meeting at White House. This has raised concerns that Russia is not seriously working to end the war. The lack of EU peacekeeping force acceptance by Russia poses serious obstacles to Ukraine or the EU supporting an agreement that has no safeguards. It means the war may continue for some time till both sides see no gains from continuing the war. Russia's position at this time is that territorial changes need to be made in eastern region.

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The danger from filled stadiums in Europe for Euro soccer 2021 leads to an outcry in Germany from Merkel, members of the European parliament, that "UEFA is endangering lives."

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The US Federal Reserve has already raised interest rates in 2021-2022 to 5-5.25%. The Fed under Jerome Powell has taken a pause on interest rate increases this month but expects to make two interest rate increases of quarter percentage point to take interest rates up to 5.6% by the end of 2023. Jerome Powell has shown determination at the US central bank to control inflation that went up quickly in 2021 with supply chain disruptions and oil flow disruptions. This has led to slower US inflation with inflation down to 4% in May 2023, half of what it was at its peak in 2022. The higher interest rates help savers including retired people deprived of interest income over the last decade, and hurt borrowers making higher payments on mortgage and car loans.

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MacKenzie Scott who cofounded the early startup on books of Amazon with Jeff Bezos, and her foundation gift giving to the underprivileged, native Americans, Black Americans, and other causes by 2026. Scott's stake is $18 billion in Amazon in 2025. Data driven approach she adopted gets through 6490 organizations and narrows that down to 822, and comes up with 384 grant recipients, says the WSJ. No applications just a call and $20 million or $50 million is the approach she has taken and the money is given on trust no monitoring.

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The growing popularity of bakers in France who grow wheat and mill the wheat, or use just the simplest ingredients is the subject of this video report in DW.com. 

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UK Labour's vote is middle class professionals mostly in London region 2026 also contested by The Greens. The Greens after Polanski took over have increased their overall vote in polls for a general election to 20% from 11%. It is the young vote for Labour that the Greens are taking. Of the people who voted for Labour, only 50% in Jan 2026 would vote Labour, according to You.gov cited in The Guardian. The rest gets scattered making it difficult for Labour to form a new government on its own. Of the remaining 50% that now does not go for Starmer's Labour 20% go to The Greens, 14% to Liberals, and 6% to Reform UK, ad 4% Conservative. The astonishing aspect of The Greens rise is how many young people 18-24 years now go for Greens up to to 46% in Jan 2026 from 26% in September 2025. Among 25 to 49 years group The Greens take 20% of the total vote. In a few months everything has changed. Issues for The Greens aren the Economy, Cost of Living, NHS,  Housing, Inequality and Poverty. ...

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US trade deficit of $46 billion with India and DJT call to buy oil and gas from the US, to shift away from purchases of $50 billion of oil from Russia, of 2 million barrels a day. India only imported $1 billion of oil from Russia in 2020 and this is a call from the US to India to stop financing Russia's increasing air attacks on Ukraine in August 2025. For India this oil came at $70 a barrel when prices were around $90-$100 a barrel in 2022-2024. In 2025 oil prices are at $60 a barrel, and even if prices increase to $70 a barrel India can make the shift. US and Germany, the EU, Britain which seek negotiated end to the war in Ukraine will continue to pressure India in 2025. Russia could shift some of the oil to other places but the huge demand from a country India's size will not then be seen as a factor in prolonging the war. India needs to think ahead for the next 20 years and its goal of modernization by 2047 like China has done in 2000-2020. And not get into a nationalistic mode that may not be in the best interests of the Indian people seeing that this may serve the interests of all nations including Russia to phase out this European war. ...

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Mogan McSweeney of Cork Ireland, son of an IRA courier with a politics and marketing degree from Middlesex University, joined the Labour Party in London fighting off Corbyn supporters during the Corbyn leadership till 2019. The Guardian says McSweeney settled on Keir Starmer as the candidate to replace Corbyn as a centrist on the right. It was says the Guardian McSweeney as an organizer against the Corbyn left that installed Keir Starmer in 10 Downing Street. And then by getting Starmer to appoint his mentor Mandelson led to Starmer becoming "the most unpopular prime minister in history." It says May local elections may sound the end of Starmer. McSweeney is blamed for some of Starmer's failure to project a image of firmness as he backtracked on issues on the advice of McSweeney, to the point that many in Labour party thought McSweeney made Labour driverless. As McSweeney ejected all Corbynites from the Labour Party he weakened the party and led to Labour bleeding its vote to the Greens and the Liberals. Labour's got a landslide with many Labour MP's winning by thin margins- its vote was slim only 34% of the vote, itself a warning that something was not right. On immigration the root causes were not addressed till early 2026- the ECHR human rights that needed to be put aside as written with serious flaws and which allowed asylum hotels. This led to a shift to Nigel Farage, called back from retirement to lead Reform UK in 2026 and way ahead of Labour and Conservatives in the polls. Worse 50% of Labour's vote disappeared in 2026 polls by February hardly 2 years after the win in 2024, as the support McSweeney helped organize had no depth of conviction- most of it to Liberals and Greens under Polanski. The result is that even the Guardian is disappointed and says McSweeney installed Starmer as PM and then made him "the most unpopular PM in history." Net favorability in Feb 2026 -57 similar to Sunak of Conservatives in June 2024. A 75% unfavorable rating in Jan 2026. And 14 points below the Labour party in "like" ratings. Only 18% are favorable for Starmer. It shows how a series of British prime ministers with mediocre backgrounds have failed in the country. ...

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The Judge in the classified documents case sets the trial date for a speedy trial that takes place not in December as requested by the prosecution but a few months later in May 2024. This means the American people can have all the full facts and information to make their decisions on the course for America to follow in the next 25 years.

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Achievements of Elvira Nabiullina as central bank chief in Russia since 2013 are the reducing of US dollar reserves from 40% to 11%of $600 billion in Russian reserves shifting to hold most of its reserves in euros, gold or renminbi Chinese currency. She also implemented the alternative to SWIFT the global bank messaging system, and changed the payments infrastructure to process credit card transactions in the country so departure of Visa and Mastercard had minimal effect.

In this way this highly respected banker has protected Russia's economy from western sanctions, says NYT. She is trusted by president Putin and was adviser to Putin in 2012, minister of economic development before that when Putin was prime minister. When Russia suffered an economic crisis in 2014 as oil prices fell sharply and Saudis increased oil production, the ruble fell. Nabiullina increased rates to 17%, and the economy shrank till it stabilized with inflation down to 4% by 2017.

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DJT Asian trip to Tokyo Seoul and Xi meeting in Seoul October 29, 2025. An important meeting with Xi after negotiators from Japan, South Korea and China tackle difficult issues in trade with the US team led by Bessent and Jamieson. The US completes agreements on trade and security cooperation with Japan and South Korea ahead of the meeting in Seoul with China's leader Xi Jinping. 

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Improvement in the managing of India's trade deficit with China. Merchandise exports from India to China increased from $11.93 billion in 2014-2015 to $21.6 billion in 2021-2022, an increase of 78% over the last 6 years. Imports from China from $60.41 billion in 2014-15 to $94.6 billion in 2021-2022. The trade deficit with China during 2021-2022 is at $73.31 billion compared to $44.03 billion in 2020-2021. Most of the goods imported from India were in equipment and intermediate parts to meet the needs of electronics, telecom and power sectors in India. 

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The European Union had 1.14 million asylum seekers in 2023. In addition to Syria and Afghanistan, Pakistan, there are asylum seekers from Venezuela and Columbia and Turkey. Compare this with 4.4 million Ukrainians granted temporary protection in the EU and not considered as asylum seekers since the war began. There is a significant increase in asylum seekers in Germany and smaller increases in France and other countries. Germany has labor shortages. About 23% of 1.14 million or 334,000 asylum seekers for Germany. Next is France at 167,000, Spain at 162,000, Italy at 137,000. About 50% of asylum seekers have been allowed and the rest rejected. EU has a new asylum law that processes asylum with faster vetting, more detention centers and quicker deportation.

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Instead of a jinx much to the contrary the US economy outlook for 2030 in Feb 2026- a surge in investment spending in 2026-2030, new manufacturing investments and lower energy costs, moderating inflation, are likely to propel the US economy ahead to 2030.The effect of tariffs as a policy making tool has been muted because of exemptions, reversal of tariff rates once key objectives were secure for tariffs as a way to get action on foreign policy as with Indian purchases of Russian oil, deals with Japan, South Korea and China, India, UK and the EU. Some sources such as the Philadelphia Fed see price rises reaching 3% in some inflation guages more than the moderate 2.5% in the consumer price index for January 2026. These sources see the hiring slowing down just as layoffs begin to happen in the latter part of the year which is a possibility but less likely. At this point in Feb 2026 there is a tendency not to layoff and to hang onto employees, and hiring has been slow in 2025. January's report of 130,000 jobs added is the first sign of strengthening of the jobs market. Overall a cautious view would be to call it a soft landing after the inflation surge of the covid period. Another way of looking at is is more in line with the strategic direction of the US economy- freeing up the economy with investments in energy,  reducing the key costs of production, tax policy of Bessent's complete one shot depreciation of equipment increasing business investment, tariff policy making the world trading system fairer and now more attuned to US interests, all creating an investment and jobs surge in 2026-2027. There is an added benefit from US efforts to free up the world trading system from the stranglehold placed on it by China with its control over world manufacturing. A dominance and unwise concentration gained from the serious mistakes of the Bush-Clinton period of not putting in safeguards for US factories and jobs (that form the backbone for families in neighborhoods towns and regions across the US), and US business interests growing indifference to the very communities they were based in by outshoring to China destroying whole regions in America. Even where it is criticized or seen as negative there are huge benefits when the US acted. Tariff increase on India is a clear example- it built Indian resilient attitude in June-Feb 2026, and during this period it cut funding Russia's war in Ukraine by sourcing energy from other sources, the US policy led to India and EU+ Germany signing trade agreements to double their effort and double trade and scientific cooperation ( a goal secured for the US as it reduces concentration in China), was followed by US signing its own trade agreement with India within days, and increases world trade of US and EU and Germany in ways that will bring 2.5 billion people into a strong partnership that overshadows anything that happened in China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failure. ...

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Without government aid about 12 million more people would have fallen into poverty in the US during the pandemic in 2020-2021. This is evident from census figures analyzed in the WSJ and NYT. The Supplemental Poverty Measure -which takes into account a broader range of income and expenses including hundreds of billions of dollars of pandemic aid -shows that poverty actually declined, dropping by 2.9% to 9.1%, as a result of government taking action in the US under the Trump and Biden administrations. The $400 billion  dollars of stimulus checks and aid during the Trump and Biden administrations in 2021 have made a real difference in the lives of not just poor Americans but Americans in the middle class and all sections of society. Similar aid was delivered in the European Union and Britain. In India government aid was distributed by depositing money directly into hundreds of millions of bank accounts of poor and marginal income people. Aid included food aid in grains, lentils and vegetables directly provided at subsidized prices or free by the government. Right wing or left wing government designations were meaningless as governments of different persuasions acted decisively to provide direct and timely help in US, Europe, and India. ...

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Guardiam Oped by Keir Starmer for Britain and Mette Frederiksen of Denmark  December 9, 2025. Both leaders of socialist parties in Northern Europe, and Starmer now keen on following the example of fighting illegal migration set by Mette Frederiksen in Denmark. "When trust in government to confront the challenges of today falters, our sense of shared belonging can begin to crack. As the prime ministers of two great European nations, we will not let this happen." "That’s why we are both taking practical action to fix the asylum system. Denmark has led the way here, with tough but fair reforms which have delivered results. Last year, the number of people being granted asylum in Denmark was the lowest in 40 years, excluding the Covid year of 2020. The UK has taken similar steps. After years of gimmicks and failed policies, we are going further than ever before with action at home – surging removals of those with no right to be here and making settlement reliant on integration and contribution, while pushing for coordinated international action too." This addresses the problem of illegal migration to Britain that is threatening to create further divisions in Britain as if Austerity, Brexit divisions, followed by Covid have not rocked Britain enough already. Starmer says he will protect Britain's borders to protects its democracy, and that responsible progressive governments can and will deliver on the change people are crying out for- Britain will follow Denmark's example. They will join Italy, Germany, Austria and other nations that are moving in this direction. ...

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Connection between inflation and spending (fiscal stuff) by the government is misunderstood or misstated, say Wharton Prof. Smetters. Doug Holtz-Eakin former CBO budget director agrees.  Does higher growth mean higher inflation? It depends. The climate change action renewable energy subsidies are expected to increase growth by 0.2%, yet this should reduce fossil fuel costs, mitigating effect on inflation of government spending. Will higher deficits increase inflation? Again it depends. In 2021 direct financial help for households during the pandemic led to a third of the higher inflation in 2021, 2022 and first half of 2023. Inflation peaked at 9.1%. In 2023 the deficit is up significantly but it is mostly of the accounting kind with lower tax revenues by $278 billion from capital gains taxes due to a stock market slump in 2022, and higher interest costs of $136 billion.

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After elections this week in Germany the CDU may be faced with forming a government with the BSW socialist party an unlikely pair. Germany's political leader Sarah Wagenknecht considers the policy of letting migrants in to be "highly problematic", and making it difficult to focus on help for workers and families. Wagenknect says - "Not because people don't deserve a better life, but because our country is simply overburdened as a result."  She pursues a social policy that follows common sense on behalf of the working class and unions, and follows socialist policies for better incomes and benefits for workers. This is new to Germany says DW.com, yet it is not true for the EU. Neighboring Denmark for example has prime minister Mette Hendriksen who has said the same thing about migrants, opposing entry because it leaves the workers worse off than before and presents both a burden and a huge distraction from the many issues the working class face today. The Democrats in the US also are coming to the same conclusion as president Biden and Harris have moved to secure the Border with Mexico and cut unlawful migrant flows to a trickle in 2024.  These shifts will affect Scholz and the SPD party in 2025, as well as the FDP and Greens as they lose popularity in the former East Germany.  ...

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Two way trade India EU to expand rapidly from $140 billion in 2025.  EU head Von der Leyen will visit India in early 2025 to increase economic cooperation and trade as the EU moves to reduce concentration of trade with China, and adapt to worsening trade relations with DJT administration in the US tariff policies. India is seen as a natural partner in 2025 with strong relationships with Nordic countries including Denmark and with strong economic ties to the US and France.

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Refugees in Germany are 3.48 million in 2024 at 4 percent of the population, government data shows. This is 60,000 more than in 2023. One third of them are from Ukraine and many of them seek a return to their home country. Clara Bunger a member of the German parliament requested the information from the government. Bunger says- "It's in clear contradiction to the misleading portrayal of an alleged 'national emergency. Such scaremongering deliberately distracts from actual social problems and uses fear to make refugees a scapegoat." This distraction from the problems of cost of living is why immigration hurts workers and families, why PM Mette Frederiksen, Denmark, PM Michel Barnier, France, US president Biden/Harris who negotiated the legislation with Republicans in Congress to close the Border are taking this important step to refocus on the future of America and Europe, and the world at large. ...