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During a public dialogue during the federal government's open day German Chancellor Scholz takes time to go over the origins of the war in Europe as he understands it. Of Russia acting "clearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country," in an imperialist manner. Here is what he said- On Nato During talks before the war started in February when he met Putin in Moscow Scholz assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO "in the next 30 years." NATO was never a threat to Russia even though Putin says NATO's increasing eastward expansion was to the detriment of Russia's interests. On the origins of the war in Europe- Scholz says Putin launched the war for "completely absurd reasons." During his talks with Putin for example he says Putin told him that Belarus and Ukraine should not be independent states. "This is a war that Putin, Russia, started, clearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country. I think that was the original goal." "Putin actually had the idea of swiping a felt-tip pen across the European landscape and then saying, 'This is mine and this is yours.' " Something Germany could not accept. Scholz condemns Putin's imperialism. He compares Russia's actions to the early days of imperialism. Scholz was reported to be reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms book Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy in Europe from 1453 to the Present, before the war started. Simms shows a Europe that fought intermittent wars for supremacy between European powers Spain, Britain, Dutch, French, Germany, Austria- Hungary, Russia, Sweden over most of the period 1450 to 1950. The last part of the period was marked from 1850 to 1900 by an openly imperialist land grab for territory in Africa and Asia between Britain, France, Japan and Germany.  The period 1950 to 2000 marked by the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union and China.    On planning for the war in advance- DW.com reports that Olaf Scholz is convinced that Putin planned this war long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. On the future of the war- Scholz says he will not end the dialogue with Putin. Scholz and Germany, Biden and the US want to show that the imperialist type of expansion into neighboring states is no longer accepted, not for Russia or China. Scholz says Russia is currently engaged in gaining territory in eastern Ukraine, but it is not certain that it will stay that way, so giving in is not a sensible strategy.  Ukraine needs the Black Sea ports and the area around Kherson on the Dnieper river to maintain its economy through exports of foodgrains. There is international consensus that these exports are essential to most of Africa and other parts of the world. The war in the remaining part of 2022 into the winter is being fought in this area. Another area of international consensus is that of the refugees mostly women and children in other parts of eastern Europe, and the displaced people within Ukraine moving from the east and south to the west. For the first time the US and Germany are providing Ukraine with the air defense systems that it needs to protect refugees, something that was missing for the many early months of the war leading to millions of refugees inside and outside Ukraine.       ...

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Compromise reached at the October 2010 G-20 meeting in S. Korea to reduce trade imbalances, and for countries with current account surplus exceeding 4% of GDP (China 4.7% and Germany 6.1%) to bring these balances down by 2015. Countries with large current account deficits, Turkey 5.2% and South Africa 4.3%, were expected to bring their deficits down and increase national savings. The US is at 3.2%. The US proposal for a target was accepted by Japan as long as it was not a fixed target but a reference point. Germany was opposed, saying it was a return to planned economy thinking. China did not comment on the issue. Canada, Australia and the UK supported the US position. The compromise was an effort to continue pressure on China to redirect its policies away from exports to increasing domestic consumption, while still refraining from a fixed target. It also takes some of the pressure off a fast track currency rebalancing, with China expected to increase the value of the yuan, but given more flexibility than the rhetoric would suggest....

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A partnership is formed between Dr. Reddy's and Glaxo focussed on emerging markets, excluding India. The products will be manufactured by Dr Reddy's and licensed and supplied by Glaxo in countries in Africa, the Middle East , Asia-Pacific and Latin America. In certain markets they will be co-marketed by the two companies. The deal gives Glaxo exclusive use of over 100 branded pharmaceuticals in areas like cardiovascular, diabetes, oncology, gastroenterology and pain management. Under the terms of the agreement the revenue results will be reported by Glaxo and shared between the two companies. This is part of Andrew Witty's strategy to take the expansion in emerging markets -especially in association with India- to a new level. Witty recently took over as CEO of Glaxo and is one of the younger drug executives at 43. Last month Glaxo acquired a 16% stake in South Africa's Aspen Pharmacare's Holdings Ltd. in a deal that expanded an existing partnership. Glaxo agreed in June 2009 to a deal with Shenzen Neptunus Interlong Bio-Technique Co. to make influenza vaccines for China....

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Mandatory airport tests in Germany. South Africa gets $4.3 billion in emergency financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund as it battles the pandemic through use of the Rapid Financing Instrument. And president Kenyatta imposes a 9 am to 4 pm curfew in Kenya for 30 days.

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Changes at USAID headed by Rajiv Shah as it makes more room for private initiative of local groups and funding of local groups in countries being helped, and shifting away from handing whole projects to U.S. government contractors. Another change is the harnessing of the efforts of U.S. corporations interested in emerging market countries for introducing their products as part of an aid effort. An example is GE for medical equipment at Nelson Mandela Children's Hospital opening in South Africa in 2016. In countries where corruption is widespread such as Afghanistan, giving money to government ministry creates risks of waste and corruption, a problem which is however part of larger problem of wasted resources in that country. The basic concept of using private initiative and getting the involvement of local groups, U.S. corporations interested in emerging markets at the aid level for their products, taken up by Shah is sound and was overdue. It is already the practice as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is doing much of the heavy lifting and large scale aid effort in poor countries of Africa and Asia. Shah worked at that the Gates Foundation before USAID. An example is the Grand Challenges for Development program to get innovators to help tackle problems in poor countries- the Pratt Pouch a small pouch with anti-AIDS drugs not requiring refrigeration was developed at Duke University and could potentially prevent transmission of HIV to 400,000 babies a year. Shah's own background of immigrant parents coming from India gives him a unique insight into how to combine the involvement of the creative abilities of well intentioned Americans at universities and private companies and local groups in poor countries, to leverage the results. He has a medical degree from the University of Pennsylvania....

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South Africa's currency drops to 16.78 against the dollar by Jan 11, 2016. The currency is affected by the slowdown in China since June 2015. In the 6 months from June 2015 to the beginning of 2016 the currency lost 26% of its value.

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Beer made from locally grown cassava and other ingredients and government tax incentives is making it possible for SABMiller and other large beer companies to make low priced beers for the African market. African governments such as Kenya have eliminated excise taxes on low priced beer, and the production of locally made Senator beer by Diageo's East Africa Breweries is increasing rapidly in East Africa. SABMiller makes low priced beer brands in Ghana, Uganda and other countries. The government sees this as a way to reduce the consumption of locally brewed beers of poor quality, and a source of revenues. Health workers expect an increase in health problems as a result of increasing consumption of low priced beer. Obesity is amajor problem in S. Africa and in other African countries. This will have effects in the higher rate of diabetes and other diseases related to obesity. Alcohol consumption in Africa per person is about 10 liters of alcoholic beverages a year, with consumption at 70 liters in S. Africa, the country with the highest rate of obesity. The figures globally are 35 liters, and 91 liters in the U.S., another country with high rates of obesity and diabetes, according to 2011 figures from Euromonitor. ...

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Jawaharlal Nehru was leader of the party under Gandhiji which fought for independence in the 1930's. Under the India Act of 1935 India was given the opportunity to setup state assemblies and free elections  for local self-rule that prepared for eventual Dominion status similar to Canada and Australia. Rab Butler as India Secretary fought hard to get it passed through the British parliament. See Rab Butler in the adjoining articles gist. This is very important as none of what happened in 1947 the task of writing a new Constitution and a Constituent Assembly to do this for India would  have been possible without India Act of 1935- the initial training for elections and assemblies. Some good work was done for example in Tamilnadu Chief Minister Kamaraj under Nehru changed that southern state with progress in education, health, and industry over 15 years 1950 to 1964. By the seventies to the 2010 period the progress ran into serious problems first with one party followed by weak coalitions that led to poor governance, corruption and economic progress stalled. After the experience of China's modernization India is attempting a similar effort with Vision 2047 for modernization of infrasructure and development in speed and scale with one difference- the legacy of Rab Butler who no one knows about in India and forgotten in Britain, the simple document Hind Swaraj written on a British steamship from South Africa to England in 1912 by Gandhiji that asked Indians to self-reflect on their part in letting the British in "who made the Company Sardar?", the post 1950's leadership of Sardar Patel who like Rab Butler was also forgotten till 2014, Jawaharlal Nehru who won a third term in 1962 but was followed by a series of weak governments unable to steer economic progress of scale similar to China or Japan, Lal Bahadur Shastri cut short like JFK, and Narendra Modi who is bringing to the task the hard work and discipline that made it possible for first Japan and then China to modernize infrastructure and emerge as dominant manufacturing nations. Like Japan and China India with its own stumbling periods is making its way in the world today. Both Shastri and Modi are in the direct tradition of their Master, Gandhiji, in the words of Shastri "hard work is equal to prayer." ...

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Novax vaccine could be a game changer for the poor countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Novax has 90% efficacy overall and 93% effectiveness against the UK, South Africa and Brazil variants. The Delta variant was not there during the trials. Novavax has signed an agreement to provide 1.1 billion doses to Covax, the organization which is designed to send vaccines to poor countries. India has contracted through Serum Institute of India to make 100 million doses. UK has ordered 60 million doses that may be sent to the developing world.

Novavax vaccine goes for regulatory approval in the third quarter of 2021.

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The NYT's Adam Nossiter sends this report from Kano, a northern city of 5 million in Nigeria, before the elections for president in Nigeria in March 2015. Nigeria is still divided between the Muslim north and the Christian south. The northeast is facing an insurgency by Boko Haram Muslim militants. The two candidates are the current president, Goodluck Jonathan, a Southern Christian seeking another term, and a former military ruler and northern Muslim, Buhari Muhammad, who is now working within the country's democratic framework. The mood in the country reflects the the lack of essential needs- security lacking in the north with the Boko Haram bombings in Kano and control of areas in the northeast. The Nigerian military has failed to control the Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast. Presidential elections were postponed for six weeks as the Nigerian military grappled with the deteriorating security situation. During this short period South African mercenaries hired by the Nigerian military and the forces of the governments in Chad and Niger which border the area controlled by Boko Haram have pushed the insurgents back, restoring some degree of Nigerian control. The improved security situation benefits the current government. In this report the residents of Kano describe their frustration with the lack of security, electricity, water, and education. Oil revenues have failed to benefit the vast majority of the people of Nigeria, as needs for water, electricity, roads and other infrastructure remain unaddressed six decades after independence....

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Who is Nandalal Weerasinghe? This report in The Daily News gives some idea about the man chosen to help Sri Lanka negotiate a deal with the IMF.  Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe was an alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund before being appointed deputy governor of the Ceylon Central Bank in 2012. Before this he managed several macroeconomic departments at the central bank and was assistant governor of the central bank from 2007 to 2009, He has spent the large part of his career in economic positions at the Central Bank of Ceylon after getting his PhD in economics from the Australian National University. Weerasinghe is the leading expert in macroeconomics from Sri Lanka who has IMF experience. He says "things will get worse before they get better." He retired early from the central bank with a change in government in 2019. He was reappointed as Sri Lanka faced a debt crisis in March 2022 following the two year long pandemic, and the Ukraine war in 2022 that was bad for emerging market economies. Weerasinghe says about the crisis facing Sri Lanka- Recent decisons followed Modern Monetary Theory. This has dire consequences. In recent times the savings brought about by the low tax and interest rate regime passed savings on to the corporate sector and took away spending power from savers and pensioners. Surging inflation made things even worse for the lower income middle class and older parts of society. Years of accumulated debt have brought Ceylon to this point. In Ceylon one is seeing the effects of savings being passed on to the corporate sector in an economy dependent on tourism and remittances from overseas workers, both hit by the two year long pandemic. This is part of  a trend that has hurt emerging market economies from Argentina and Pakistan which also turned to the IMF to Turkey.  In other countries in the European Union savings also passed on to the corporate sector with low tax and low interest rate regime. With high inflation resulting in the cost of living crisis seen today in France and Germany. This type of policy that Weerasinghe calls 'Modern Monetary Theory' is not healthy for the European Union and the US, as these policies led to the neglect of much needed and vital investments in infrastructure, health and education. Only now are these effects being corrected by new administrations of Biden in the US and Scholz in Germany, with Biden's 2 trillion plan for workers and families, and a similar plan from chancellor Scholz. With this come needed investments to tackle climate change, all of which was neglected before. India has taken a different approach. By following good governance, managing vaccination effectively during the pandemic, social emphasis for food, water, electricity, cooking gas, medicine for the vast population of 1.2 billion, and a Master plan for building Made in India manufacturing,  India has avoided such crises and maintained strong economic growth. In this sense it is a model for South Asian, South East Asian, African, and Latin American emerging market economies that face a difficult situation today. Good governance is critical.   ...

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Financial Stability FOrum will be renamed the Financial Stability Board and include 10 additional members, These additional members are from developing countries or emerging markets, including Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and China. This forum which currently brings together regulators, central bankers and finance ministers from a few wealthy nations, will now reflect the views of emerging countries. It previously only served as aforum for exchanging ideas. Now it will be given the task of drafting the detailsfor global standards for financial institutions, including benchmarks for executive pay and how much risk that financial firms can take on. But there is still some resistance to the idea of getting ideas from different sources and including the benefit of a diversity of experiences and backgrounds, even though some of these countries, have borne the brunt of these recurring economic crises in the past, as have Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics says that you have to hear out China but objects to taking advice from Argentina, a comment which reveals the insular nature of these forums and boards in the past, with little or no representation from places where a majority of the word's peoples live. As would be expected in the light of that comment, there is resistance to giving China, India, Brazil, Russia, and other large developing countries like Mexico, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia proper representation in the IMF's governing bodies, and having the rules changed so that the head of the IMF and other important staff members could be selected from emerging countries. Each of these countries can bring adifferent perspective to the decisions made at the IMF, as most of them have suffered from these recurring economic crises in the postwar period. South Korea's experience with the IMF is the most recent and is covered in the link to S. Korea and the IMF, and if reflected in the policy making at IMF could help it perform a more constructive role in this crisis. This is also the case with some of the other countries....

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Singer songwriter Paul Simon performed in concert recently. He releases his new album "So Beautiful or So What" on April 12. Simon, now 69, seems a generation away to younger audiences. His lyrics are great, but his music reflects the point of view Simon held at the time he wrote the lines. He has explored gospel, reggae, Mexican folk, South African mbaqanga, and Afro-Brazilian music over the years. The reach to younger audiences is not the same as Dylan's. But the range and depth of his talent as a composer is amazing- with 17 studio albums. He was the first recipient of the Library of Congress's Gershwin Prize for Popular Song. He has little time for image, believing it best to lead with his lyrics to get across a profoundly felt view of things. And sometimes the reading of a song like "Peace Like a River," leaves a lasting impression on the mind.

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Russia begins evacuation of residents of Ukraine as the city becomes a war zone. The war on the Dnieper river in the south of Ukraine near the Black Sea enters a new phase as Ukraine seeks to preserve its coastline on the Black sea ports including Odessa. These ports are its lifeline to Western Europe and the world to ship its grain and food that supplies the Middle East and Africa. This makes it a vital connection for Turkey, Egypt and other parts of Africa that depend on Ukrainian food supplies. Any future peace agreement is likely to take into account this food connection. The other connection Ukraine seeks to preserve is its industrial region in the east in the area around Kharkiv.

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Bernard Lewis's "The Arabs in History," is a short book which confirms Zakaria's point about the openness of Islamic societies before the 19th century, with some exceptions in certain periods. Most books or a quick look at Wikipedia shows us that the Renaissance in Europe in the 15th century got its boost from books by ancient Greek authors that were available in Arab societies long after they were forgotten in Europe. His point about Indonesia and India is also true to a large extent except for periods such as the one under Aurangzeb (17th c.). Muslim societies in British India (todays Pakistan and Bangladesh) experienced less social and educational reforms under the British than Hindu societies for various reasons leading to larger backwardness, illiteracy which breed extremist ideas. This is likely to change throughout North African Arab societies and South Asia in the next 50 years, especially with the modernization drive underway in India, which is likely to spread to other parts of the region. Islam as a missionary religion with force of arms spread in the 7th-9th century rapidly over Arab North Africa and parts of west Asia, and later to South Asia. Once established there were long periods of openness to ideas and books, and different cultures ( with the exception of preferences for Muslims), and a stress on commerce which inherently reduces religious vehemence, as the example of Britain shows. For this reason the current conditions in Islamic societies is more atypical than typical. A factor that has worsened it is that 19th c.-20th c. Islamic societies have put less emphasis on commerce and industry than historically seen in prosperous Islamic societies, on which more research is needed to understand why. Another factor is the impact of the interface with technologically and scientifically progressing Europe and America not becoming a learning experience for acquisition of this science and technology and making it one's own, a pattern seen in Buddhist societies of Japan in 19th c., South Korea in 20thc.,and China 21st c. Because Buddhism sprang from Hinduism or a response to Hindu ideas in India, India could be put alongside China for the 21st c. rapid assimilation of western science and technology making it one's own. When there is a violent collison between Japan and U.S. Admiral Dewey's ships, or China and British advances around 1900, the initial reaction of rejection is reversed with adoption of western technology and practices making it one's own. Similiar response in India. Islamic societies have had an extended period of rejection for reasons not fully understood even today. This is likely to generate the kind of internal debate about how to revert back to the usual mode of adoption in Islamic civilization, with the potential catalyst in India and other locations in the Middle East. The most respected German of the 19th century is Alexander Von Humboldt, a naturalist who advanced scientific knowledge, and a mentor to Charles Darwin in England, author of "Origin of the Species." Humboldt says- "There are no inferior races, we are all humans, and we are all destined to reach for and grasp liberty." That Humboldt spent most of his best years in Paris, France, which he compared to the provincialism in his native Berlin, goes to show how Humboldt, Darwin and Humboldt's friend Aime Bonpland of France, maintained close cooperation and friendship and anticipated the close cooperation in Europe since the second half of the 20th c., long before European politicians and governments grasped this. Commerce, science, travel, media and free exchange of ideas, are as favorable to progress as politics and ideology is inimical to it....