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The Observer newspaper in Britain says in this editorial opinion that Keir Starmer's first speech at Labour conference gives a glimmer of hope for Labour. He put behind him antisemitism in the party from the Corbyn period, and showed that he understands the concerns of voters on issues ranging from education to crime, such as too many children growing up in areas where there is not a single good primary school, and the issue of rape victims denied justice. He also affirmed his idea of patriotism. He still faces Labour's steady decline in working class support, Labour's decline in Scotland, and the lack of a unifying vision to attract British voters.

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Problems older workers face as they try to remain active, stay healthy with active participation, contributing to the economy. In societies like the U.S. where age has different meanings compared to Asian societies, older workers have to conceal their age. This goes against the need for greater workforce participation of older workers to make up for the effect of aging societies and fewer younger workers.

It is a good thing that labour force participation rates of workers in their 50's, 60's and 70's are growing, good for the health of the workers, good for their financial health nearing retirement and good for the productive contributions to the economy. Imagine all that experience going to waste.

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This report in the WSJ shows how Amy Barrett, the new Supreme Court nominee, has managed to combine parenting with her career as a Notre Dame professor and judge on the Seventh U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. A lot of help from her husband, a flexible workplace, living in a smaller town South Bend, Indiana, and a willingness to go with nonconformity, make it possible. She is up at 4 or 5 am to exercize. Blending different worlds is part of this. She can go from work to run an activity for the children. She also views raising children as the activity that has the "greatest impact on the world," so that her career is seen in a bigger context of life.

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The Centres for Disease Control agency in the U.S. was unprepared for this pandemic in the early period from January to March. This report in the NYT shows how the agency failed to respond effectively in the early days leading to the loss of lives now past 100,000. When travelers arrived at U.S. airports in February from China carrying the virus with them these flights were diverted to selected airports with CDC conducted screening but the screening proved to be defective. Health officils desperate to set up isolation and quarantine could not act because the information provided was not accurate and missed many details resulting in the inability to quarantine early and isolate clusters as other countries Germany and South Korea have done.

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This WSJ report shows the Kimmich goal that won the game for Bayern Munich against Dortmund. Three weeks of practice have improved the goal scoring for many Bundesliga teams. Goals scored as a percentage of opportunities has gone up from 15% to 19% for Bayern, and from 19% to 26% for Dortmund. Dortmund's coach says they made the best of it during three weeks of practice starting in April when within social distancing guidelines the Bundesliga began practice. Lots of technical work, work in front of goal, and stuff they never get to practice. Pandemic practices created so much more time for shooting. The goal that Kimmich made was one that he had done in practice. 

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This NYT article describes the disastrous investment in Valeant Pharmaceuticals by hedge fund manager William Ackman. The hyped up investment was portrayed as resembling Berkshire in its early days, but ended badly. So badly that Valeant stock price went from $262 to $11. This is a blow to the personality cult in hedge funds where focus is on a few personalities and their investing approaches taking huge risks. Ackman's approach was to take large stakes so he could influence the management. In this situation of Valeant there was a breakdown in the due diligence analysis of the company say experts, and a troubling aspect was that the hype about the company was not toned down early. 

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Weigel of the Washington Post compares how the Affordable Care Act was passed in Congress in 2012 with the push by Speaker Ryan and the Trump administration for the American Health Care Act in 2017. Republicans he says are making the same mistake as Democrats by rushing this through Congress. There is no broad consensus on whether all Americans should be entitled to health care as in Europe and Japan for their citizens, and health care is priced in a way to make it expensive for the state to provide- until the twin problems are solved by creating a new culture in the U.S. that sees things differently, politicians will come up with their own plans based on their interests and which groups they serve.

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The British parliament's petitions website crashed because of the high volume of petitions calling for revoking Article 50 and remaining in the European Union. In December the European Court of Justice ruled that UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 the basis of leaving the UK, and decide to remain in the European Union. 

The petition currently has 700,000 signatures. Off to a slow start in first week, once it picked up the dam burst as frustrated Britons added their support. In January the petition calling for EU to revoke Article 50 got 371,000 signatures.

Liberal Democrat and Labour MP's joined in support till parliament's site crashed with overload on the system.

 

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The tariffs dispute with China escalates as China increases the tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods from 5-10% to 25% starting June 1st. The U.S. put its tariff increase on $200 billion of Chinese goods in effect on May 9, increasing it from 10% to 25%. The U.S. exports less to China than China does to the States by a wide margin making it possible for Mr. Trump to up the ante. Mr. Lighhizer's office says it is looking at tariffs on all remaining goods from China imported to the U.S. if China does not agree not to renege on its commitments and assurances to the U.S. in the talks on improper technology transfers and other matters. 

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Sandra Boynton is unique in children's books because of her avoidance of what she calls the "cutesy tedium and arrogant condescension" of children's books and children's music. She is simple but can adapt difficult words or ideas to sound simple. She has also avoided television because she says TV outlets merely want the rights and a children's product that makes it to a hit that will then turn up on hit toys, you know the commercial kind, and backpacks, then lunchboxes!

She lives in the foothills of the Berkshires mountains with the farm to table food, outdoor activities and fall foliage, and is married to Jamie McEwan, Olympic medal winning canoeist.

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The written WSJ interview with Xi Jinping ends with a quote used by Jinping from Chinese philosopher Mencius- "It is only natural for things to be different." Jinping couples it along with another old Chinese saying for a broader meaning- respect your own cultural values and differences, yet be open to outside exchanges if you don't want to end up being ignorant. That quote is: " Learning alone without exchanges with others will lead to ignorance." This focus on outside exchanges seen as technological cooperation so that China has access to western technology to continue its progress in modernization and growth, is something most developing countries accept as critical. Is it seen as broader by learning from the general experience in many fields of other countries in Europe, the Americas and Asia?

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Greece's New Democracy party and Mr. Mitsotakis wins about 41% of the vote in Greece's elections. Syriza come is second with 21% and Pasok left party at 12%. Mitsotakis has increased Greece's growth to twice the eurozone rate, and cut migrants by 90% in line with EU policy. New Democracy party gets 145 seats in a 300 member parliament. The first round was conducted under proportional representation, only 60% of voters cast their vote. Mitsotakis will go for another election by July because in a second round the winner gets additional seats and this could let it form its own government. It sees this as needed to maintain policies of economic growth that have led to GDP growth at twice the rate of the eurozone. A surveillance scandal appears not to have affected the election results as Greeks opted for stability and growth. Mitsokatis himself put it this way- "This is not the time for experiments that lead nowhere." Greece was almost out of the eurozone when Syriza conducted referendums on the debt repayment that led to a chaotic situation, and then moved in the opposite direction in callous implementation when the Eurozone held firm. Mitsotakis said Greece needs to achieve an investment grade rating to lower borrowing costs. Worldwide the policy of delivering on growth is key to success in elections in democracies and in countries that are catching up after the colonialist phase. This is true for delivery of infrastructure and public services such as water and electricity, modern rail in India. It is true also for winning enough public support in countries like China that run parliamentary representation under one party the CCP. Strict immigration controls since 2015 reflect a similar policy pursued recently by Italy. Migrants have dropped by 90%. This is popular among Greeks. Looking back Merkel made a serious error in letting in migrants coming in from Hungary and Austria at the beginning of the migration inflows into the EU in 2015. Merkel came from former East Germany, the communist led GDR, and had no understanding of how harmful this would be for the European Union. In just one year by 2016 the misguided open migration policies of Merkel had led to her CDU party getting less votes than an anti immigration AfD party in her home state of Meckenburg. It led to anti-immigration movements in Europe that were used by parties in a self-serving way including in Britain that led to exit of Britain from the EU. It also led to a decade of austerity and a lost decade for the European Union as it permanently sidelined parties to the left such as Social Democrats that unknowingly or unwittingly ended up with the blame for the public's discomfort with lack of borders and migrants upsetting borders. In balance the right way to tackle this was to build stronger economies that supported workers and families in the EU, that then invested significantly in developing countries of Africa and Asia to help them catch up with modernization. Another failure in policy was the Bush-Obama Merkel policies in failed states such as Iraq and Afghanistan. There it was fundamentally important not to get involved in any way that committed US or EU's precious resources.  ...

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The Adani Group's public offering of $2.5 billion was slightly oversubscribed says the WSJ after a short seller in New York City Nathan Anderson issued a report critical of the company. Adani Group is a set of companies in India that have taken  up the ambitious goals of electrifying India with its population of 1.3 billion so that no home lacks an electric bulb light for children to read. It is under criticism because this means coal mines in Australia provide the coal that provides this electricity when coal is used in China and India to provide much needed electricity. Adani Group is unique in that it is making the rapid transition into renewable energy in line with PM Modi's goal of generating 50% of electricity from renewable energy by 2030.  Adani Total Gas Limited fell by 10%, Adani Green Energy and Adani Transmission made low percentage gains.   Thirty anchor investors provided $734 million including American banks.  This includes Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Life Insurance Corporation of India. Abu Dhabi based International Holding Company said it would buy $400 million in shares in a public show of support for the Adani Group. Adani Group will use the proceeds to fund capital expenditures on green energy projects, expressway construction and airport improvements and repay some debt. The building of India's Uttar Pradesh Expressway is being done by Adani Group which is similar to what happened under US president Eisenhower in the 1950's in building the first Interstate Highway system in the US. In 1953 after Dwight Eisenhower became president he developed the plan for a national Interstate Highway system that led to the passing of the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956. This is happening today in India. Airport and port improvements taken up by Adani Group help build India's woefully inadequate freight logistics to make it a part of the US new supply chain after the errors of overconcentration in one country China. Green energy projects help fight climate change where investments are badly needed and governments in the US and India are giving much needed direction and support. It is in this context that the huge growth of the Adani Group can be seen. It is not similar to the Tech company valuations simply because it is like China's effort under state owned companies to match the growing demand for electricity for industrialization. During the British Empire after 1800 capital from India financed the Napoleonic wars, industrialization of Britain, and indirectly industrialization of the United States through British capital invested in the US in the period before 1860. Capital that was diverted from India, and through British trade that impoverished China. As a result the growth in China after 1990, Korea after 1980 and India after 2014 comes in a catchup mode to meet the growing aspirations of hundreds of millions of young people with some companies state or private owned picking up the pace in an unprecedented way. This is the raison d'etre of the Adani Group. China's total installed capacity of electricity has increased from about 500 GW in 2005 to 2500 GW in 2021. This is the story repeating itself in India with Adani Group and other companies such as NTPC, State Grid and Tata Power setting over five fold increase. ...

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The Yucatan Rail Project being moved forward by Lopez Obrador in Mexico is shown here in the WSJ. It moved forward during the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 and connects the Yucatan cities by rail. Yucatan cities  including Campeche and Merida bring about 8% of the country's exports and 10% of the country's GDP. Modern rail at 99 mph would connect the cities in the Yucatan to increase industry and tourism to develop the south east of the country. This is similar to the projects on the Brahmaputra river in the northeastern parts of India that are being opened up by new infrastructure rail and bridges for industry and tourism. Both the Yucatan and India's northeast are parts of the country that have much potential and have investment needs that were not realized in the past by previous administrations. The environmental impact in the northeast part of India and for the bullet train in the western region from Mumbai to Ahmedabad were held up by environmental concerns. A similar situation has happened for the Yucatan Rail Project. Even when enough trees were to be planted to help Mumbai residents for its Metro construction also shown in WSJ, he project was held up for political reasons. The bullet train project after its delay for political reasons will now cost nearly double that it would have cost before. It is supported by Japanese aid at very favourable financial terms that pay for the project, including direct government aid and Japan's rail technology. It is now moving ahead in 2022.  Infrastructure plays a key role in developing economies such as India and Mexico, yet it requires resolute conviction and perseverance as much of the political setup as shown in Mexico leads to leakage of funds meant for infrastructure and very little being done at great cost to the ease of living of ordinary people. In Mumbai and other cities in India. The same is true for Mexico which at this time of the pandemic needs to bolster its spirits and move ahead with much needed development work to help people in all parts of the country. With the Yucatan Rail Project Mexico can move to the next phase with wind farms on the Yucatan out to sea, and solar energy projects that could with new technology be transmitted to other parts of Mexico and to the US. It is important to keep trying and persevere on these new projects and look to a brighter future. For Mexico US relations better living conditions in Mexico also relieves the burden of illegal immigration and problems related to it in neighborly relations. Mexican officials should increase contacts with Indian officials working on the projects in the Assam region and  along the Brahmaputra river, in Indian states in the northeast, to exchange ideas and notes to gain from each other's experiences in integrating regions that were previously not integrated into the Indian and Mexican economies. This is a topic to be added to the G-20 topics to be discussed at the next meeting in Bali, Indonesia, on November 15-16, 2022. For Mexico it is an opportunity to also widen its infrastructure work to learn from what India is doing in solar and wind energy and build collaborative efforts. ...

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This report in the WSJ gives the background and positions taken by Patriarch Krill of the Russian Orthodox Church, and his support for the war in Ukraine as part of Russian lands nationalism. Russian lands nationalism is an idea that comes from the beginnings of the Russian version of Christianity that had its origins in Kviv Ukraine in the 10th century. Patriarch Krill has had a varied role questioning some some state policies and then backing off and supporting the state says WSJ. In 2011 patriarch Krill stood up for protesters critical of manipulation in parliamentary elections that year. Patriarch Krill grew up in the years of Soviet rule and was 24 in 1970 when he began his work in the church. He was rector of a seminary in Leningrad by 1984 and after being critical of the Soviets and war in Afghanistan was sent to Smolensk says this report in WSJ. After he returned he worked with the Soviet state, and after voicing concerns in 2011 about parliamentary elections described as manipulated he has supported the Russian state as it becomes assertive about Russian lands nationalism. To understand the Orthodox Church in Russia one has to know its presence in the post Soviet period. About 63% of Russians belong to the Orthodox Church. It also includes Ukrainians. After Crimean invasion by Russia the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that makes up one third of the Russian Orthodox parishes was recognized as a separate church by Patriarch Bartholomev of Constantinople. Patriarch Bartholomev and Pope Francis the two leaders of the eastern and western churches in Constantinople and Rome have been critical of Patriarch Krill and his support for the war and the idea of Russian lands nationalism. Since the war some parishes in Russia have signed a letter opposing the killing of brothers in Christ and one parish leader was fined $500 for his statements. There is now intense debate among Russians about what this war means in bringing conflict on brotherly peoples about their preferences in 2022 for aligning with Europeans in the western part of Europe. For most of Europe in the 21st century there is a big change, in the countries near the Baltic sea in Northern Europe, in countries in the middle of Europe, in Eastern Europe, the 21st century is seen as a time when states and peoples are making their own choices about freedom and what their preferences are particularly the young people. They no longer understand or conform to ideas of the earlier period or centuries. And this is what has made Ukrainian young people oblivious about what Russian lands nationalism means and its relevance today. Buddhism is today not prevalent in South Korea a democratic state and in China a Communist state in the way it existed for centuries. For it to be relevant people need to begin to believe in it as in Japan or Sri Lanka or Thailand. In the 21st century young people are making different choices and this may well be where the Ukraine war shows that people's choices count particularly in the 21st century, and it has little to do with the west or the US or NATO or even Russia. ...

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The structure of the deal that is coming up for a vote in Congress on August 1st, a day before the August 2 deadline. A deal put together mainly by Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell and Vice President Biden after other deals failed. It gives the government $400 billion immediately and another $500 billion in the fall for raising the debt ceiling. Another 1.2 trillion will be added in 2012. The entire burden for raising it falls on Obama. Obama will be able to get the debt ceiling raised without another long struggle before 2012 elections. On spending cuts- agency spending will be cut by $900 billion over the next 10 years. A new legislative committe will be set up to come up with $1.2 trillion in additional savings by the end of 2012. The mechanism that would force the committe to act or make sure spending cuts were taken if the committee failed, was set up as one in which the trigger is to force automatic across the board cuts. The automatic across the board cuts would be for $1.2 trillion to agency budgets for the next 10 years, and split this half and half between domestic programs and defence. Programs aiding the poor including Medicaid and Social Security would be exempted, but Medicare payments to providers could be touched. No new taxes are part of this deal....

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Bayer AG CEO Marijn Dekkers talks to the Journal's Geoffrey Rogow about the company's pharmaceuticals business and job retention. Dekkers says profits are reduced by the tight budgets of European governments and the pressure on pricing. He cites the 16% mandatory rebate in Germany on prescriptions. For Bayer diversification through the chemicals business offers a way to handle the ups and downs in the pharmaceuical business with patent expiration. He is not interested in acquisitions because of the high premium involved and the difficulty of recovering this for investors. Bayer like other drug companies has extensive operations in China. Bayer is training salespersons in top and second tier Chinese cities. It has a program to train 10,000 physicians in rural areas of China working with the local government. Dekkers makes an interesting point about jobs and job retention in the U.S. He says a lot of jobs were outsourced in the 1990's and its difficult to bring them back. Germany has done a better job with job retention with "kurzarbeit" and other programs working in partnership with industry. In his view this could have been managed better in the U.S. with active programs such as this in the last two decades....

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The pro-independence party of Catalan president Arturo Mas called an election two years ahead of schedule in an effort to increase autonomy for Catalonia in relations with the central government of Spain. He failed in negotiations to reduce the tax burden for Catalonia in relations with the federal government in Madrid. Arturo Mas's party lost seats in the regional election, ending up with 50 seats compared to the 62 seats it held previously in the 135 seat regional parliament in Barcelona. Other pro independence parties gained seats. The left leaning Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya party increased its seats from 10 to 21 seats. The Partido Popular of Spain's premier Rajoy won 19 seats, up one seat from the 18 it held earlier. There is considerable questioning inside Spain about whether this issue should be brought up at a time of 25% unemployment and negotiations with the EU for loans to restore the health of Spain's banking system.

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Analysis by the Wall Street Journal shows companies in the S&P 500 stock index earned second quarter profits of $189 billion. This was up 38% from 2009, without the inflation adjustment. For all American companies, Commerce Department estimates second quarter after tax profits rose to an annual rate of $1.208 trillion, up 3.9% from the first quarter, and up 26.5% from year earlier. Companies are doing this with layoffs of workers, closing less profitable units, and shifting work to cheaper locations, and introducing more efficient processes. Texas Instruments shut down a unit making cellphones, Electronic Arts pruned its videogames by about 50%. These profit increases were achieved by reducing costs on flat or declining sales compared to 2008, just prior to the financial crisis. Companies are not expected to increase spending through new hiring or adding equipment in the current economic environment. From the Journal's analysis of the 500 S&P companies, it shows sales were 6% less than 2008, with second quarter profits 10% higher....

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Germany's statistics office Destatis reports record numbers for imports and exports for 2014, showing a stronger economy going into 2015. Exports surged even as imports increased to 917 billion euros. Imports from the eurozone increased by 2.3%, a healthy sign for recovery of other struggling eurozone economies. Domestic consumer spending was up 1.7% for the 4th quarter from prior quarter. The trade surplus for 2014 set a record of 217 billion euros, exceeding the record of 195 billion euros set in 2007. A slowdown in Russia is made up by increased exports to other countries. Analysts say the lower euro exchange rate should improve trade performance with improving global demand also lending support. For the first time since 2007 domestic consumer demand is also picking up as wages are increasing. Destatis reports 1.6% increase in real earnings for 2014, the highest since 2008. Additional positive factor for domestic consumption is that wage agreements in 2015 should boost incomes further, say analysts....

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The S&P is up 1.3% for the 1st quarter of 2014. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.7% in the 1st quarter. Tech IPO's, biotechnology stocks, solar energy stocks and junk bonds pulled back in March 2014 after what were seen as excessive gains in trading. In the bond market the Barclays U.S. Aggregate bond index was up by 1.8% in the 1st quarter, as investors responded to dampening economic news and the emerging markets crisis. Analysts point to the 10.6% rise in S&P 500 earnings in the 4th quarter of 2013 over the prior year quarter, as giving earnings a chance to catch up to the higher P/E's and boosting prospects of stocks in the latter part of 2014. S&P 500 stocks trade at 15.2 times the next 12 months expected earnings figures, according to FactSet, compared to 13.2 and13.8 average for the last 5 and 10 years.

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Because technology spending has been more disciplined and focused on productivity and efficiency gains, the investment has been lower but more effective than in the 3 years leading to the last recession in 2001. At that time it was increasing 12.9% a year leading into the recesson and faced sharp cutbacks leading to a drop of 11% over the next 2 years 2001-2003. By contrast this time the tech spending went up by about 2.8% a year in the last 3 years, according to Gartner, and has delivered solid results at places like American Airlines. Technology spending is likely to hold up and continue moderate increase this year and next as the US enters a recession. At American a fuel efficiency drive starting 2005 including software to come up with best routes, flight paths and baggage loading has saved 96 million gallons a year. Note that spending on computer hardware and software is about half of all capital spending by business.

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Gordon Brown, Britain's prime minister and the finance minister Alistair Darling have lifted their reputations with their decisive plan and execution of it to inject capital and take majority ownership of British banks RBS and HBOS/Lloyds. This comes after earlier missteps which led to a bank run on Northern Rock bank. Their plan is now held up as a model plan around the globe and is being followed in the US and in other countries. It could not have come at a better time, as in the US Fed chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson were having some missteps of their own with their plan to buy up troubled assets. That turned out to be difficult to carry out and may take months- very costly missteps leading to freezing up of global credit markets and criticism from most economists and experts. An account of how the plan was developed as daily events unfolded for Britain's banks.

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This WSJ report traces the development of rail, trucking, container shipping and forklift use in Germany, Russia and the US. The World Bank Logistics Index shows Germany ranking first, the US 14th, China 26th, Russia 75th out of 160 countries.  Russia's military relies on a supply system that uses crates instead of container shipping, not much use of forklifts, and relies on rail and conscript labor. During the invasion of Ukraine in April Russian supply lines that did not control rail failed to supply forces leading to slow progress. Because of dense rail lines in the eastern Donbas region Russian supply lines have worked to sustain advances. About 750 miles of rail lines have also been repaired by a special force set up for this purpose.  In a larger sense the problem of logistics and supplying front lines remains. This report shows the contrast between the development of Russian logistics and American logistics described by military experts in the US. The Russian system evolved in the early years of the 20th century based on conscript or free and abundant labor compared to the US where labor was scarce and costly. Automation progressed rapidly with American business taking up use of forklifts and containers during the 1940's extending to its use in the military. During the Vietnam war Cam Ranh Bay US bases were converted to modern container and forklift use. Russia continued through the sixties till today with a different and less automated system of logistics and movement of goods.    The use of modern logistics in Russia is limited to the amount of freight that gets moved in Colombia and much less than France says this report in WSJ. Much of the industrial base in Russia is built around oil and gas exports and manufacturing with movement of supply chain parts has never taken the importance that it has in Germany or the US. This limits the capacity of the Russian military outside the rail lines located towns and cities in Donbas where it has recently made gains. ...