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Huaxi, Jiangsu province, a few hours car ride northwest of Shanghai, is a village of 2000 residents. It has built a 74 story skyscraper, with a concert hall and a revolving restaurant. The village residents have joint ownership through Jiangsu Huaxi Corporation with the companies 2009 report claiming it has investments in businesses that return 50 billion renminbi or $7.7 billion in income. About 25,000 workers, mostly migrant workers, are said to be employed by the village. These workers work and live in an area outside the village. The whole story appears to be more that a bit bizarre. There is no other information on where this money is coming from and who is managing it. If anything this kind of story suggests how inflated and bizarre the property market in China has become. Even the word bubble may be understating what is happening. A massive misallocation of capital is taking place with the lack of transparency and corruption making this possible, which will very likely affect long term development....

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A new Arizona law tells school districts they would lose 10% of their state education funds if their ethnic studies programs do not comply with state standards. Programs that are not allowed are programs that advocate ethnic solidarity, are primarily for one race, or promote resentment toward a race. Classes in the Tucson Unified School District's Mexican-American program have been declared illegal. Arizona's attorney general Tom Horne, declared the classes illegal, in violation of a state law going into effect Jan 1, 2011. Other programs for black, Asian and American Indian students have not been affected. All this is happening in the midst of fierce protests about the state's immigration laws. Mr. Horne, was superintendent of public instruction for Arizona before becoming attorney general. At that time he wrote a law challenging Tucson's ethnic studies program, which the legislature passed and Governor Jan Brewer signed into law in May 2010. It takes aim at texts used in the classes, such as "Occupied America," and "The Pedagogy of the Oppressed."...

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Six former clerks, many of them now professors at well known law schools, Georgetown, Cornell, Yale, share their memories of Chief Justice John Paul Stevens, who retired in 2010 as the longest serving Supreme Court justice on the bench. One of the clerks remembers Stevens for his courteousness, which started with "May I ask you a question?," and did not attach importance to formal titles. Stevens showed remarkable empathy in talking to the clerks about legal cases. Another clerk remembers the time when Stevens pulled up the plaque on his wall "Small Town Lawyer of the Year: Associate Justice John Paul Stevens," as he talked about small hometowns with the clerk. It was given by the bar association of Poulsbo, Washington, and Stevens took pride in his modest beginnings. Some are amazed by his energy, he played a good game of tennis at 85, hired only 2 clerks instead of four to do a lot of the work, and would join the clerks for discussion on different aspects of the law.

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Europe's 750 billon euros plan to defend the euro currency, including 60 billion of EU backed bonds, a $440 billion euro fund guaranteed by euro-zone countries, and upto 250 billion euros of IMF money. The plan buys time for the troubled economies of Portugal, Spain and other EU countries, but does not address the fiscal and structural flaws that are endangering the European single currency experiment. The "no bail-out" clause and the stability and growth pact proved worthless in implementation. Sanctions for a country with growing problem of deficits did not work and had soon lost credibility, with the financial markets themselves recognizing the serious problems of some deficit countries only when things had spun out of control. Some other forms of sanctions will have to be figured out and mechanisms of dealing with financial panic such as sovereign debt restructuring need to be put in place. The German emphasis on too sharp budget cuts may have the danger of pushing deficit countries into deflation as well as creating strong popular unrest. ...

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The National Association of Realtors reports that sales of previously owned homes dropped by 27.2% from June, to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million homes. House prices gained ameasure of stability in 2009, after dropping since 2006. Now that measure of stability may be lost as house prices weaken. The expiry of a home-buyer tax credit was expected to dampen sales but not by this much. Paul Dales of Capital Economics expects a further drop of 5% in house prices. Combine this with sluggish consumer spending and prospects of deflation in 2011, a weak Obama administration HAMP homeowner relief program, fading stimulus and the likelihood of no further stimulus because of deficit fears; and the picture shows serious problems. The underlying picture of housing is not changing. One in four homeowners with mortgages owe more than their house is worth. Banks are handling over 5 million loans that are delinquent, if these loans are modified or short sales are permitted by banks, there would be support for housing prices. HAMP has failed in this regard, see the link to this....

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China's exports were able to show year over year growth of 7.6% in the first quarter of 2012, a sharp decline from 20.3% in 2011. As a result IMF estimates of China's long term current account surplus which were about 7% of GDP in the World Economic Outlook in Sept. 2011 may now be lowered to about 5%. This would reduce the strength of arguments that the yen is undervalued. The IMF is now engaged in making estimates for current account balances till 2017. China's current account surplus peaked at 10.1% of GDP in 2007 and the IMF forecasts in 2008 were for this to remain at 10% for the long term. The situation is rapidly changing because the most recent estimates from China's State Administration for Foreign Exchange show the actual current account surplus for 2011 at 2.8% of GDP. Since the 2010 Group of 20 nations summit meeting when China was pressured to reduce its trade surplus and let the yuan appreciate, the yuan has appreciated by 8.3%.

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The situation in small towns in East Germany such as Loecknitz on the Polish border. The economy is depressed with unemployment twice the level in West Germany, and young people moving away. The economy on the Polish side is much healthier and Poles are moving to the German side from the Polish city of Szczecin, a 30 minute drive. Poles are also buying depressed German real estate and starting businesses. This is adding to the local economy as young Germans have moved to the larger cities but there is the sense of being left behind among some Germans. It comes from the period of reunification when after investing $2 trillion to integrate the two economies the best that could be done was making cities like Leipzig and Dresden in the east prosper but leaving the coutnryside in East Germany in an abandoned state as young people sought opportunities elsewhere. This may be why Angela Merkel who grew up and studied in the former East Germany told the German parliament in June 2012, "Germany's strength is not infinite. Germany's powers, too, are not unlimited."...

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Analysts do not see how Greece could avoid restructuring its debt. Debt for Greece is expected to grow in coming years. The 110 billion euro bailout of Greece by the European Union and the IMF does not reduce Greek debt- as the bailout comes as more loans. The EU estimate is that Greece's debt will go up to 375 billion euros in 2013 from 298 billion euros in 2009. Kenneth Wattret, chief euro-zone economist at BNP Paribas, says the markets are already pricing in some form of restructuring. This would include some form of "haircut" for bondholders. A restructuring presents several problems. Brussels think tank Bruegel estimates 20% of Greece's government debt is held by local banks which are weak financially. These banks will need some help if they are to take new losses. About one third of Greece debt is held by pension funds and insurance companies and these institutions may have to be stress tested before taking losses. And 80 billion of the bailout money came from euro-zone countries as direct loans, this would mean losses for these lenders....

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About 60% of the population in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, countries worst affected by the Ebola virus are facing food shortages. Markets are closed in these countries reducing access to food. The virus is affecting West Africa in other ways. Ample food supplies with lower prices of corn, wheat and rice on world markets, as a result of supplies from Brazil, India and Thailand, is not reaching Africa because of restricted access because of Ebola. Clogged ports, and conflicts adding to this reduced access. In East Africa the FAO estimates 20 millon people face food shortages up from 15 million estimate earlier. The rise in value of the dollar in relation to African currencies is increasing prices of food. Food price inflation is leading to a situation where an household with many children in a relatively better off country like Uganda being able to afford only one meal a day. The result will be increase in malnutrition in Africa if solutions are not found to get access to large food supplies outside Africa with lower prices. ...

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European Central Bank executive board member Benoit Coeure, says the ECB will act quickly on a program to buy government bonds, so as not to fall behind the curve in taking action. He said the ECB had a moral and legal responsibility to act, considering the low annualized inflation of 0.3% in November 2014. Analysts say this could come as early as Jan 22, at the next ECB meeting, because the meeting in March may be too late. Coeure pointed out that the design of the program will be made in the manner similiar to that of the Outright Monetary Transactions Program of 2012, so that broad consensus is achieved. The ECB's staff is currently working on this. The U.S. and Japan have implemented monetary easing programs with quantitative easing, and the ECB is now moving in this direction to increase growth and bring inflation to about 2%. The ECB also now plans to put out detailed policy minutes after each meeting. The euro is expected to weaken further below $1.24 with the announcement of the program....

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President Obama proposes changes in taxes to fund programs to aid students such as free 2 years of community college, aid for student loans, and financial help for middle class families. Senate Majority Leader McConnell says the proposals to raise income taxes for high income Americans with $320 billion in new revenues over 10 years, reduced prospects for changes in the tax system. He said the Obama proposals were designed " to excite the base but not designed to pass." Obama says "the shadow of crisis has passed," and calls for "middle class economics," and improving incomes for anyone making the effort. The call comes as inequality widened during the long recession and some of the Obama administration's policies such as on homeowner foreclosure, and lack of focus on unemployment during the first term, may have actually worsened inequality. The call also comes late in the second term in Jan 2015- with presidential elections in 2016- after the Republicans gain control of both Houses of Congress, which is why Republicans dismiss this as mere political talking points for the base....

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Four former close advisors of U.S. president Obama in a public statement say they fear the current Iran negotiations fall short of reaching a 'good' agreement. The statement says " We fear that the current negotiations, unless concluded along the lines outlined in this paper and buttressed by a resolute regional strategy, may fall short of meeting the administration's own standard of a 'good' agreement." The advisors are Dennis Ross, David Petraeus, Gary Samore, Robert Einhorn and James Cartwright. It sets strict inspections for all sites, including Revolutionary Corps and military sites, as a precondition for any significant lifting of sanctions. The statement goes further in saying about Iran's development of a nuclear weapon: "The United States must go on record now that it is committed to using all means necessary, including military force, to prevent this." The statement was released from a study group of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Ayatollah Khamanei in a televised speech on June 23, 2015, stated military and Revolutionary Corps sites would not be included in snap inspections, and economic sanctions should be lifted immediately. ...

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WSJ's Fidler describes the views of Victor Ruhe, a former German defense minister, on the Ukraine crisis and the EU's response. The EU's position for relations with Ukraine comes under criticism for being technocratic as in earler trade and aid negotiations, and not addressing the problems which Ukraine faces. This requires closer cooperation from the EU, and some costs the EU has been unwilling to assume. Ruhe says the best response for the EU is to turn Ukraine into a European success story. This means taking on the effort to gradually transform the corrupt and inefficient political and economic system, something the EU did over many years in the Balkans. EU leaders have signed an agreement with Ukraine's new government on political dialogue and security cooperation. Critical parts of the agreement for trade, law enforcement, anticorruption actions, and macroeconomics changes, will be signed after a new government is elected in May 2014 elections. The EU is in this for the long haul as political support will be needed for a new generation of politicians....

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Turkey's finance minister Simsek praises the independence of the central bank, as prime minister Erdogan and the Economy minister Zeybecki put political pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates. Erdogan says the half percentage cut in rates to 9.5% is "a mockery of this nation." Governor Basci of the central bank has said in the past that such calls are part of Turkish political culture and the bank remains independent. Inflation is high at 9.38% and expected to reach 10% in May 2014. The central bank forecast is for interest rates at 8.33% by the end of 2014. India, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia, face high inflation and depend on capital inflows for growth. Analysts say investors are likely to reduce Turkish assets if Governor Basci is forced out. For emerging markets political protests in Turkey, Russia (with the added volatility created by the Ukraine crisis), India, and Brazil, have led to capital outflows and increased uncertainty. The situation is reversing itself in India with the election of a business friendly government and in Indonesia following the recent election....

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Eisinger says the Federal Reserve's staff plays an important role in regulatory reform. He quotes Cornell law professor, Robert Hockett, who says the general counsels tend to become more conservative over time and inclined to support the status quo. This makes required regulatory changes such as increasing the capital reserves at banks and reducing leverage more difficult. Eisinger describes the position of the U.S. Federal Reserve's general counsel, Scott Alvarez, on disclosure of lending by the Fed during the banking crisis, and on capital reserves, which veered more to the position of the banks which preferred less information be released and capital reserves be left at the 5% level than the 6% proposed by the FDIC and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Comments by Alvarez in nonpublic hearings to Congressional staff members on May 18, 2012, about the JP Morgan London Whale trading losses, according to Eisinger, shows lack of awareness of the overall implications of the breakdown in financial controls and supervision inside the bank....

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Analysts say the large growth in orders for Boeing and Airbus is likely to slow with lower oil prices. Access to cheap financing and high oil prices at $100-$120 a barrel led to a surge in orders. With oil below $50 in Jan. 2015 this is likely to change. A study by Ascend, an aviation consultancy, shows about 50% of the orders in the last 5 years were for replacement aircraft compared to the longer term trend of 43%. Airlines are likely to hold on to older aircraft for longer with lower oil prices. Boeing's head of market analysis, says the airlines will still benefit from fuel efficient aircraft such as the Boeing 737 max and the Airbus neo with 20% less fuel cost, even at current fuel prices. Airlines will still need to plan for growth. And Airbus executives say the fuel price levels could go up in the future as inventories fall. In the Asian market overcapacity is a problem with falling airline prices and reduced profitability of Asian carriers.

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Tom Friedman of the NYT talks with retiring Israeli defense minister, and former prime minister, Ehud Barak, in Tel Aviv. Barak makes the case for seizing opportunities as they arise in a difficult situation, which might be lost if Israel adopts a permanently pessimstic state of mind about the prospect of peace with Arab countries. Barak and Friedman suggest the approach of the Israeli government of prime minister Netanyahu has risks of highlighting the dangers to Israel at its borders, to the point where Israel could lose the ability to make wise and sensible judgements as these opportunities arise, and the Middle East itself changes. Because of the political struggles and conflict in the Middle East this may obscure the newly emerging Middle East, which needs economic advancement to support the aspirations of the overwhelmingly young populations in these countries. This has the potential for a new dynamic that could see the Middle East move beyond Israel to seizing the opportunities presented by economic and technical progress. Similiar to the other nations of Asia, including the Muslim nations of Turkey and Indonesia. ...

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BP's global oil outlook 2013-2030 shows demand from China is still a big part of the story two decades from now. Factor in demand from Russia, the Middle East and India, yet China still dominates the picture for growth in demand. For 2000-2011 China's share of global demand growth for energy was 55%, under BP's outlook China's share for 2011-2030 drops to 43%. Fossil fuels still dominate. The continuing dependence on fossil fuels is also the perspective of Shell CEO Voser in an interview with the WSJ in Jan 2013, who also sees strong growth in shale gas supplies from China. Coal will account for 61% of global demand growth to 2030, oil 43%, gas 25%, in BP's outlook. If Voser is right and with the need for cleaner burning natural gas gas considering high air pollution in Chinese cities, gas may take a bigger share than 25%. Shell CEO Voser looks out 4 decades from now and sees one third of global demand coming from renewable energy, 10% from nuclear, and the rest from fossil fuels.

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Sargent offers an assessment of Hillary Clinton's years in office as U.S. Senator and Secretary of State following her role as First Lady. Less polarizing, respected by 4 of 10 Republicans, and respected for her tenacity and effort. He cites Hillary's remarks in 2008 that the glass ceiling has about 18 million cracks in it- that Hillary who grew up during the feminist revolution helped take it further even if the achievements were incomplete. In retrospect the Clintons served the country with passion and dedication right upto to the end, and strove hard to put behind them any blemishes to their record. The Obama administration was itself built upon the public servants who gained experience in the Clinton administration, more so than previous aministrations, because of Obama's relative obscurity as a community activist in Chicago. Names like Panetta, Lew, Napolitano, show how much of the old is in the new, and the humility to work with them as colleagues and fill the lack of experience of the new president, may be the best example of public service the Clintons could offer....

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Richard Posner, who teaches at the University of Chicago, and is federal appellate judge, takes an incisive look at the economic crisis. Posner says this was not a failure in the sense of irresponsibility alone of people involved, but a failure of capitalism, and that capitalism is prone to failure unless properly governed. Markets left to their own devices can fail, monetary policy is not enough to counteract other deep seated problems. Under capitalist system people can make individually rational decisions like continuing to invest in mortgage securtite if they were financial institutions, or losing the profits to be made, and collectively make irrational and in time enormously costly decisions, with no less consequences on an individual basis when things collapse. "We are learning," he says "that we need a more active and intelligent government to keep our model of a capitalist economy from running off the rails." But that may be nothing more than returning to common sense, or a healthy dose of skepticism for overblown claims for any system or form of economics or politics. ...

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Scott Sperling, co-president of THL Partners, one of the oldest private equity firms, says rather than be anticapitalist the Obama administration is capitalism at work, as the restructuring is rebuilding two auto companies through bankruptcy by reducing unsustainable legacy obligations and making the bankruptcy process work right for these two companies. It also helps these firms get a new start. The process of "creative destruction" that helps make capitalism work is put to work in an enlightened way so there is creation as well as destruction, destruction through the tough choices that all stakeholders had to make, and creation through the new structures that are coming up. Preservation also works here through keeping what was good in these firms, which are the employees who had no part in management's mistakes, and workers who may be just as badly trapped in union ways. Scott also explains why the government's offer of 10% ownership shares to debtholders is fair, considering that without the government's money Chrysler would be worth little....

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What are the implications of the restructuring at GM and Chrysler for the American car market? Market share at GM dropped to 19.3% in the first 4 months of 2009. Says Consultancy Caesa Shapiro Group, the market will become more competitive, with about 15% of the market up for grabs depending on how many GM and Chrysler dealerships are eliminated. THis is based on Caesa's numbers of 14-15 million for the American automobile market compared to the 17 million car year. But the current market is at 9.5 million cars a year so Caesa's estimate may be on the high side even when the market recovers. Which means competition will be intense for the much diminished market in the USA. Deloitte Consulting says the suppliers will benefit as they will be dealing with auto companies whose relative market share is at more equal levels for companies like GM, Toyota Ford and Honda. Supplioers will also be dealing with companies that have better financial position compared to the situation in late 2008.

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The Chicago Board Options Volatility Index has dropped frm a high of 80 last fall around the time of the Lehman brothers collapse, to 30 last week. So has the volatility gone? No one can be sure. Sam Stovall, investment strategist for Standard and Poors does not thinks so. He says history has shown that the rallies in the depths of bear markets are different, because they are almost always followed by a retesting of market lows. The market tends to get adecline after it looks at the fundamentals and any deep seated problems that remain. Stovall's research shows that the market retested going back to 1957, and the average event lowered stock prices 7%, but in the really big downturns like the current one, the S&P went down about 14%, on average. Assuming that the market peaked on May 8 with the S&P 500 at 929, and acorrection of 14% ocurred, the S&P would be at 799. A drop of this magnitude would mean that panic would return, says Stovall.

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Dealerships have taken enthusuastically to the new Penske ownership of Saturn. But its not clear whether the Penske name will help boost sales. Saturn sales were down 58% through May 2009 over a year earlier, down to 35,256 vehicles. Kia sold 4 times as many cars in the USA over the same period. Saturn sales improved in June, with a35% year over year increase in June. But its not clear if this will last and what the effects of the penske name will be over the long term. Autodata estimates that there is a105 day supply of Saturn cars, or 32,647 cars for 350 dealers. By comparison Buick has a74 day backlog. Customer loyalty says J.D. Power is down from 45% in 2007 to 37% today. This compares to retention rates of about 65% for Toyota. And the failure of the Astra to genrate customer interest and its being discontinued will leave Saturn without acompact car in its lineup. Its important for Saturn to have an affordable small car to hang onto loyal customers.

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Problems with China's health care system stem form years of underspending. About 1% of GDP went to healthcare in 2006,according to the WHO, ranking China at No. 156 of 196 nations. This underinvestment has caused great hardship to the rural poor who have postponed or been denied access to healthcare because of exorbitant expenses. It shows up in the number of trained medical workers- only 17% of China's medical workers are university graduates. In village and township clinics the number falls to 2%. The government has dedicated $121 billion for health care through 2011. But this may not be enough. Aobut 300 million in the rural areas have no coverage at all. The government's plan is to get farmers insured through county level rural- cooperative insurance plans. These programs begun in 2003, offer only scanty coverage. Outpatient services and medications are not covered and coverage varies from county to county for hospitalization bills. The goal of th health ministry is to get the coverage for hospitalization bills up to 50%....