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Germany's traditional parties the SPD and the CDU get a lift in the polls with new leaders who move the parties to the left and the right after years of grand coalitions between the SPD that led to both parties moving to the centre. This created an opening for new parties at the extreme right and extreme left. Kramp-Karrenbauer the CDU leader has taken a hard line on immigration and the SPD leaders are returning to support Germans on issues such as wages, and guaranteed income for pensioners. 74% of Germans think that this is the right thing to do to rebuild the identities the parties had in the past. The SPD is back up to 18% after hitting a low of 14% support in polls. Many SPD rank and file supporters were never comfortable with the SPD's move to join Merkel CDU in coalitions that undermined the message the SPD sent out to the German public. This has hurt the SPD. Merkel's preference for centrist positions not only undermined the SPD party of Willy Brandt, it also undermined the CDU when it comes to immigration and the acceptance of large numbers of refugees. All this is now changing as the Merkel era ends.   ...

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Ukraine's general election in March 2019 comes at a time of very low confidence in government. Only 9% have confidence in the government dropping from the 24% at the time of the 2014 protests. The problem is mainly corruption with the Wold Bank pointing out that politically connected firms control about 20% of the revenue and 25% of the assets. The major candidates Ms Tymoshenko a former president, and Mr. Poroshenko current president have about 18% support. A comedian with a television show in its third year called "Servant of the People" has about 25% support, and is leading in the polls. Lack of political experience was not an issue.The hope raised five years ago have not been realized as Ukraine suffers from crony capitalism and corruption. The war in the east has affected Ukraine's economy. Since 2013 average wages have fallen 20% to $320 a month and gas prices have gone up 8 times during a period of the conflict with Russia. The 2014 protests led to the fall of a Russian backed government, Russia taking over Crimea, and the war in the east with separatist rebels. Mr. Poroshenko's government has failed to move quickly to tackle major problems in the economy. ...

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How the present easy credit situation came about, looks back at the history going back to the 1980's. What does the current credit tightening mean?

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Amy Chozick of the NYT describes the puzzling idea of a Methodist do-gooder, with serious concern for injustices in the South, making an effort to accumulate money. Especially considering that Hillary Clinton must have known that speechmaking fees would come up in a presidential election campaign. Chozick describes in some detail the two years Hillary tried to shore up the family's finances after Bill Clinton's defeat in the 1980 election for Governor. Following the defeat Bill Clinton went back all over the state to voters to hear their complaints, sometimes for hours at a time. It was upto Hillary to shore up the family's finances. Hillary had to stretch to buy a $112,000 home in a better residential neighborhood. Family friends say Bill was never that interested in money, and never worried about the family's finances. Things were so bleak according to this account that Hillary worried about how they would pay for daughter Chelsea's college tution, as her own mother's experience has always remained with her of being denied a college education because of lack of money. During the Democratic Convention this comes up in the video introduction, something that most people are unaware of, which must have been difficult for an intensely private person like Hillary. Her mother is described in that video as having to go to the corner grocery store as a child with coupons for food. The income of the Clintons as professors in the years around 1975 was $18,000 each. As governor Mr. Clinton earned $33,519 in 1978 with combined income at $51,173 adding Hillary's work at the Rose law firm. A one time deal in the commodities market made 100,000, and an investment in land in the Ozarks led to losses- all at a time when other highly educated people in Arkansas were doing extremely well, including the Walton family. It wasn't until 1992 when Bill Clinton was running for president did the couple make higher income of $297,177 reported in 1992 tax returns. At this time entering the White House, of recent presidents only Harry Truman had lower net worth. Hillary donated her book proceeds for "It Takes a Village," to charity, and turned down an advance. By the time they left office the couple were faced with legal debts, owing $5 million in legal fees- Hillary Clinton saying they were "Dead broke." The former president now sought help to buy a Dutch Colonial in Chappaqua, New York, for $1.7 million. President Jimmy Carter was also facing large losses in his peanut business in Georgia when he left office, only to turn to writing books to salvage his finances. Hoover, FDR, Kennedy, George Bush, George W. Bush, were from families with great wealth or built their fortunes, including candidate Trump, sometimes using influence or connections or in the case of Kennedy's family gaining from the end of Prohibition. Eisenhower, Reagan, Carter were of more modest wealth. Only Harry Truman remains the awesome exception of dignity with extremely modest wealth, a small house in Independence, Missouri, no presidential pension, only an army pension of $112.56 a month in 1953. Truman's story also offers another aspect of public service of an exceptional kind and its value to the country for people to reflect on. A presidential pension of $25,000 was set up one year after Truman left office.  Experts say Truman's Senate Committee over 8 years 1941-1948, helped save billions of dollars in waste, fraud, and in faulty airplane as well as munitions development during the war effort, including saving thousands of lives.  In his farewell address in January 1953, Truman said he had spent 17 hours a day for eight years with no payment for overtime. In the address he correctly predicts that the Cold War would be won and he set the course. It also happened as predicted in that address with changes in the Kremlin and failure in the satellite states. Hillary Clinton put in these 17 hours and gained unmatched experience as Secretary of State, and is in a positon to set the course ahead in a manner that Truman once did in a complex world where careful policy, good judgement and in some situations strong action is needed. Such invaluable public service has never really been rewarded in the way business leaders are, not by a small fraction - too long simply taken for granted.  Considering her life story Hillary Clinton appears to have struggled with this all her life, to create a safety net that too often cracked, sometimes suddenly and unexpectedly. Has this concern sometimes gone too far, could better judgement be exercized. Perhaps or probably. Should it be seen in the context that Truman's situation reminds us. Probably.         ...

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Hubbard and Erdbrink report on U.S. president Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia to begin a new chapter in relations with the Gulf nations and the Saudis. Under president Obama the U.S. distanced itself from the Saudis and the Gulf nations, preferring to pursue a policy of closer relations with Iran and signing the Iran nuclear deal. This included a policy of staying out of Syria to the point of turning down a decision to deploy U.S. airpower to maintain no-fly zones to protect refugees. Syrian government forces fighting rebels were supported by Iran. The new policy is dictated by the new conditions in the Middle East. The U.S. has sought since the presidency of Reagan to balance the power relations in the region. With the nuclear deal signed and Iran respecting the deal according to independent reports, the U.S. allied with Iran in the battle against Islamic State in Iraq,  a shift was needed to balance the support provided to Iran by Russia which worsened the refugee crisis in Syria. The Republican party and Mr. Trump were critical of the Obama Iran policy during the nuclear deal negotiations. The safety of Israel is also a factor as non-state actors were supported by Iran threatening Israeli security. For these reasons the shift is an effort to rebalance the relations in the region. The arms deal in its size and president Trump's statement that Iran had "fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror," can be seen as this rebalancing. A business aspect of the large arms deal is that it will promote job growth in the defense industry in the U.S.. Other countries including Germany have seen growth in their defense industry. This is not the best way forward for the Middle East, yet it is a way the U.S. and nations in the region are adjusting to realities- the collapse of the Arab Spring from within and without the help from outside, the sectarian conflict arising from the Shiite pushback from Iran following the Baathist and Sunni control of Iraq which collapsed with the U.S.invasion, where the majority of people are Shiite yet with a strong Sunni presence. Elections brought Shiites in power, leading to a Sunni response in the form of Islami State caliphate move into Mosul, Iraq's second largest city after Baghdad. A decade of conflict and the efforts by the Bush administration ended in failure and sectarian conflict, resulting in the U.S. policy of rebalancing in favor of Iran to negotiate the nuclear deal. In this sense the arms deal does not solve anything. A similar rebalancing under Reagan by arming one side, followed by arming the other, led to involvement with ground forces under president Bush. It only leaves the region poor after years of sanctions against Iran to the point where a NYT reporter was not sure whether it was safe to fly from Tehran to Mashad with Iran Air because of the lack of spare parts for the airline. War torn, with millions of refugees in Syria and Iraq, the region remains broken in many ways, waiting for a sensible non sectarian view to prevail in the interest of the people in the region. The election of Rouhani in Iran by 57% of the vote is only a sign that young people in the region given a chance would opt for a different course in future. The rest of Asia has moved forward and shows a path that can be followed. ...

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S&P said it will maintain India's credit rating of triple B minus, the lowest investment grade rating, yet it may downgrade it to "junk status" in the next 2 years. S&P said this could happen "if the external position continues to deteriorate, growth prospects diminish, or progress on fiscal reforms remains slow in a weakened political setting. India's growth rate declined to 6.9% in the year ending March 31, 2012, down from 8.4% the prior year. The problem is that India's current account deficit is growing rapidly with the high import bill for energy supplies. The current account deficit is now at 4% of GDP. The trade deficit increased to $185 billion in this fiscal year, up 56% over the prior year. Additional problems are finding ways to finance the deficit with foreign capital, as European banks are pulling back during the current eurozone crisis. Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar says this could be a big problem. Net foreign capital investment is declining rapidly from $72 billion in February 2012 to $387 million in March, with a net outflow of $27 million in the April 1-25 period. The budget deficit, which has drawn the attention of the RBI, India's central bank, and of S&P, is at 5.9% of GDP for fiscal year ending March 31, 2012. This is larger than the government target of 4.6%. The government has set a deficit target of 5.1% of GDP for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2013....

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The knowledge that the virus  caused human to human transmission and that it spreads to wide parts of the population very quickly were critical pieces of information that remained with Chinese epidemiologists, doctors and medical researchers, and were suppressed by local authorites in Wuhan.  Yet China's version of the U.S. CDC, China's Centre of Disease Control and Prevention, modeled on the U.S. control efforts worked effectively to identify the problem. Virologist Gao Fu, heads China's CDC. This report in Germany's Der Spiegel says Mr. Fu made it a habit to scan China's internet before bedtime for any signs of possible disease outbreaks. On the night of December 30 he came across rumors of an internal memo from the Wuhan Health Commission of an outbreak of a vaguely worded lung disease. When he called the Wuhan health authority he found their answers to be evasive which alarmed him. The next morning December 31 Mr. Fu sent the first of three teams to Wuhan which is how China was able to identify the problem, in the sense that Chinese authorites in Beijing were to rely on Dr Gao Fu to overcome the problem of Wuhan provincial authorites. He informed the World Health Organization Beijing office on that day. The Der Spiegel report says "shortly afterward," the Seattle Times in its report says this was about New Years Day 2020- Mr Fu made a call to Dr. Redfield, head of the U.S. Centre for Disease Control, who was on vacation. Redfield is deeply disturbed on hearing this from Fu and they have conversations over the next few days to the point that Dr. Gao Fu is in tears about what has happened. On January 1 Taiwanese public health authorites shared the information with WHO that the cornonavirus was a human to human transmission, would the Taiwanese authorites not have shared it with the U.S. the same week during calls from the U.S. CDC or other public health authorites alarmed about the situation. (The WHO was proving useless by Jan 14 when it contradicted Taiwan's more reliable assessment  on Jan 14 going by the letter from president Trump to WHO). On January 6 a few days later Dr Redfield and Dr. Azar head of Health and Human Services ask China for permission to send a team of CDC U.S. experts to China. This is cited in the U.S. letter to the World Health organization- the lack of human to human transmission information being given to the U.S. officially early by China. A risk that could have been a topic of conversation between the U.S. and China heads of CDC. That letter from president Trump also points out that the team of experts the U.S. planned to send was not accepted by China till Feb 16, one and half months after that series of conversations between Dr. Gao Fu of China CDC and Dr. Redfield of U.S. CDC in an alert message.  In effect removing one of the key defences for the U.S. and Europe in making their own defensive actions and plans, laying the basis of the worldwide coronavirus pandemic affecting millions of people. Dr Redfield is a AIDS researcher at the University of Maryland who spent most of his life trying to control spread of HIV and was appointed by president Trump to head CDC agency in 2018. He set a goal of eliminating AIDS by 2030 and is more comfortable with aids patients and research than the bureaucratic nature of agencies- CDC has about 11,000 employees. Once it was clear that a team of U.S. experts was not given permission to make its own assessment in Wuhan in the few days after January 6 offer to sent the team to China by Redfield of U.S. CDC and Dr. Azar, would it have alerted the U.S. that something was seriously heading the wrong way for a epidemic risk. That letter of president Trump cites how the head of WHO during the first SARS crisis in 2003, Dr. Harlem Brundtland acted when she faced China's lack of cooperation during that crisis by saying openly that this was a danger to world public health and millions. Could CDC in the U.S. and the other connected health authorites have taken the responsibility and filled Dr Brundtland's role in this crisis, that the WHO failed to perform?    ...

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Alan Meltzer would like to see the Fed reverse its quantitative easing, and lower excess reserves gradually starting now. By this he hopes to see the Fed avoid the mistake of making a big shift from excessive ease to severe contraction further down the road. He also warns agains excessive deficit spending. He says a weak economy is not the time to cut spending or raise taxes, and he is not talking of draconian immediate steps. He would like to see a multiyear program to increase fiscal probity and reduce deficits size and frequency. As it stands now he takes both parties to task for lack of fiscal discipline and honest accounting. About $1 trillion in deficits each year on average for next 10 years is in the works, and is an underestimate because the savings of $200-$300 billion in medicare spending have still to be realized, and states do not have funds for increased Medicaid spending, and payments to doctors have still to go down by 25%. Chinese government purchases of half our debt will postpone the day of reckoning says Meltzer, but far better for us to strike at the problem now, before we blow a hole in the dollar and start a downturn. See the separate report on the shrinking UK economy....

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Interracial marraiges are increasing since the Supreme Court made antimiscegenation laws unconstituional in 1967. According to a new report by the Pew Research Center- based on historical data and Census Bureau information of the annual American Community Survey- 15% of all new marraiges in 2010 were between people of different race, ethnicity or color. This is double what it was in 1980. Of the total people married in 2010, 9% of whites, 17% of blacks, 26% of Hispanics and 28% of Asians were married outside of the ethnic and racial group. Interracial marraiges were more common in western states and in the northeastern U.S. compared to the southern and midwestern states. In the western states 22% of all marraiges were between people of different ethnic or racial groups or color. College educated people under 30 were the most open to interracial marraige.

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Chevron's difficulties getting Russia to agree to proposed expansion of Caspian Pipeline Consortium's pipeline from Kazakhstan to Black sea port. Russia wants better terms and more revenue from the pipeline. Chevron's wants to boost output from Tengiz to 550,000 barrels a day by end of 2008 and needs pipeline expansion to transport the oil.

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Latin America has made a huge turnaround through successful vaccination drives. Today more people are vaccinated as a percentage of the population in Latin America at 62% than in the US at 56% or Europe at 60%, according to Our World in Data project at Oxford University. There is little resistance to vaccines in Latin America after successful vaccine campaigns against yellow fever and other diseases. During the first year of the pandemic Latin America had one third of the deaths in the world with 8% of the population. Deaths after vaccination drives have dropped to 8%.  Brazil with 617,000 deaths from coronavirus was second only to the US with 800,000 deaths. Brazil is now back to normal after a successful vaccination drive that has 66% of the population fully vaccinated, and 80% with one dose, some of the highest rates in the world, according to Our World in Data at Oxford University. In Colombia with 50 million population about 50% of people are fully vaccinated. Cases have dropped from 30,000 in June to 2000 a day and deaths from 700 daily that month to 50 a day in December 2021. In Buenos Aires, Argentina's capital, 83% of three million population are fully vaccinated, 14% have received a booster. Buenos Aires city health minister says Argentine society has an affinity for vaccination campaigns. "They rapidly accepted receiving them," he says. Yet from the point of view of new variants emerging there is a different situation in rural areas. In industrial states such as Sao Paulo 78% are fully vaccinated, yet less than 40% are fully vaccinated in poor Amazon state of Roraima.   We make it a point to honor the brave reporters in these countries who provide the reports in the WSJ, as we did earlier for NYT Stephanie Nolan's reports from South Africa and Zambia about frontline workers against Omicron in Africa.  Luciana Magalhaes in Sao Paulo, Jenny Carolina Gonzalez in Bogota, and Sylvina Frydlewsky in Buenos Aires and Kejal Vyas writing this report from San Salvador. ...

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The contrast between lack of effective measures taken in the Lombardy region with the aggressive action in Veneto that has proved effective. Veneto followed the method of quarantining, mass testing for clusters and isolating the affected people.  The Italian government took the first steps to close off northern Italy Feb 22, and it was not till March 10 that a nationwide lockdown was done. The action taken in the Veneto region is shown here in this WSJ report with the town of Vo as an example of steps taken that worked. A microbiology professor and infectious diseases expert at the University of Padua, Dr Crisanti, developed a test for the coronavirus as early as mid-January using the information made public by Chinese doctors. Dr. Crisanti oversaw the testing of 95% of residents of Vo, a town of 3400 people in Veneto region. He found 3% of the population was infected, with half testing positive asymptomatic. Following the aggressive lockdown the tests were done two weeks later and the rate of infection had fallen to 0.1% with only 8 new infections. "The main lesson from VO is that when you have a cluster of infected people, you should do a very aggressive lockdown and then test as many people as possible," Dr Crisanti says. The results from Vo led to Veneto increasing testing in the rest of the region carrying out 80,000 tests, compared to 88,000 in Lombardy, with double the population and 5 times more infections. Lombardy followed government directives to test only those with symptoms. When it spreads it is harder to do the test isolate clusters, test isolate clusters, in a continual loop, yet this remains the method cited by Dr. Brx in the U.S. today as the right way to target clusters in a laser approach. In yesterday's briefing at the White House Dr Brx said this is a method the U.S. is familiar with and has used in Africa to tackle HIV, Ebola Virus. It is possible using GPS to target down to a specific clinic in a specific place, which is how it was successfully done in Africa. ...

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This Journal editorial says Germany and France will have to pay for preserving the Eurozone one way or another. It suggests a direct approach of the German and French governments injecting capital for recapitalizing German and French banks that would take losses on bad loans to Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain; combining this with bondholder haircuts for creditors, and reforms that include spreading the burden for Irish bank debt and cleaning up the cajas savings banks mess in Spain. This would mean exactly the opposite of what is taking place now, including the abandoning of individual country rescues and bailouts; which the Journal calls extending loans and pretending the problem is not with German and French banks that would have losses on the bad loans. The problem is that this places the entire burden on austerity measures in each bailout country which reduces growth and raises unemployment to levels that make the problem much worse than before. This is not happening because of a serious failure to reach agreement on the shared sacrifice and cooperation between the governments, creditor banks, the ECB and other parties in the eurozone, on a serious debt restructuring across the eurozone that would put the euro back to stability with some mechanism for serious financial discipline in eurozone states....

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Americans with no arrest record are more likely to have a college degree 40% to 10%, more likely to have a high school diploma 89% to 53%, according to one study. People with an arrest record are twice as likely to be in incomes below the poverty level. This matters for African Americans, Hispanics, and poor white people because the higher rate of arrests in these communities can lead to less opportunity for jobs, loans, education, and mortgage approval. It also matters in an information age with the FBI having over 77 million individuals in its database with reports of arrests and other action. A minor arrest record also stays on the record hindering future prospects.

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This WSJ editorial says president Obama's inaction, including the smaller step of not putting in place a safe zone in Syria, comes at a price for Liberals. The recent action by Governors in Michigan and other states turning down Syrian refugees, it says is one of the moral consequences of Obama's policies. For Liberals it says a policy of inaction and turning America's back to the needs of ordinary Syrians during the Arab Spring is not neutral, it also has consequences. The consequences for Liberals is the steady stream of refugees to Europe, and the greater intolerance in western societies as the safe havens created by these policies in the Middle East lead to terrorist actions in Europe or the U.S. In short doing little or nothing carries risks for the kind of society liberals want to see. Through developing policy in response to the Bush Administration's policies the Obama administration makes a series of errors of its own that compromise liberal values, including the collapse of the Arab Spring without American and western support, and the creation of a huge refugee crisis in Syria, Iraq, with a spillover to Jordan and Turkey, and further spillover to Europe. Liberals in Europe also face a similiar situation, including Liberals in France....

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The Chinese government is concerned that lack of a safety net, fears about a general access to health care, and lack of other assistance for the farmers, elderly, rural poor, lack of unemployment protections and welfare, all are making Chinese to cramp up and spend less. Chinese households save a quarter of their income in normal times, now unless the government steps in a big way, which it has done only in small faltering steps, savings will increase even more in response to fears about the future. Lu Mai, secretary general of the China Development Research Foundation, says China has reached a point where it has to make a big decision, does it spend more on security and the police or on social benefits. He put out a report last week which estimates the government needs to spend 2.6 trillion yuan or 380 billion dollars by 2012 for the first phase of a social safety net. With a further spending of $838 billion dollars by 2020 to complete the improvement of health care, education, pensions for the elderly, low income housing, disability benefits, unemployment protections and welfare for the poorest. And these estimates may be low depending on the assumptions made, as the situation has taken a steep descent from the time these estimates were probably made. In the last few months tens of millions have been added to the jobless, and the severe drought has created a difficult situation on the farms in rural areas, even while millions of migrants return to these rural areas as businesses dependent on exports collapse in cities in coastal areas. What is the government allocation at this time? A target for health care overhaul of $124 billion was set recently. But the actual stimulus package is heavily skewed in favor of infrastructure and investment in construction. About 1% of the big stimulus package that was announced goes to health care and 7% to public housing. Says Zhuang Jian, an economist with the Asian Development Bank, this excessive investment in infrastructure, heavy industry and manufacturing will cause serious problems, if there is not strong consumption to match it. And Eswar Prasad of Cornell University, who was head of the China division at the IMF, says that an ambitious agenda is needed for higher social spending to take away the fears of average Chinese about the future. Chinese premier Wen says the government needs to do more, but the instincts of China's planners, and decades of development with built in incentives for promoting investment in construction, infrastructure and industry, have left China with huge unsustainable underinvestment in basics like education, health care and social benefits....

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Timur Kuran, a Professor at Duke, sees the lack of civil society, and shariah law that does not encourage the growth of institutions of civil society that are organized as corporations, as two major handicaps in the development of democratic society and institutions in the Middle East.

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Leo Beranek's book Riding the Waves tells about how he got started in communications engineering, back in Solon Iowa in 1924 with his fathers new one vacuum radio receiver, his start at Harvard by coincidence, repairing a flat tire of a Harvard instructor driving through Iowa, and his research in electronic transmission of sound at Harvard and MIT, and work on electronic transmission of information which was the early work on the internet, to the founding of BBN Technologies.

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Plastic use has increased with the tripling in parcels delivered in the last 4 years, up to 64 billion parcels. As much as 93% of the growth in trash in major cities in China in 2018 comes from this one source- an astonishing 850,000 tons of plastic waste in 2018 from the e-commerce and delivery sector. Food deliveries and Alibaba online deliveries add to plastic waste. The government is cracking down with new rules from the Environment Ministry. By the end of 2020 non biodegradable plastic bags will largely be banned from cities, and single use straws banned in restaurants across China.  This ban will extend to all cities and towns by 2022 and to markets selling fresh produce by 2025. Restaurants will have to cut use of plastic by 30% by 2025. In 2018 China stopped taking imports of plastic waste. China is beginning to realize the costs of letting single use plastic grow. The last regulation was in 2008 banning the giving of free plastic bags at retail markets and banning production of super thin bags. It has taken the sudden jump in use in package delivery and in food delivery for the government to finally act. Experts say China uses too much plastic. India has taken strong action against single use plastic in 2019 under the leadership of prime minister Modi. ...

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A state wide ban on single use plastic bags goes into effect in New York state March 1, 2020. This is part of a global push to get rid of single use plastic bags that pollute the environment, end up in waterways, rivers, on trees and landfills. Some clues are offered here on why store owners still used plastic bags, and why large grocery chains still use plastic. The plastic bags cost much less than paper bags. Here one small store owner says 100,000 plastic bags cost him $2000, the same number of paper bags $15,000. New York state uses 23 million single use plastic bags a year. A public education campaign is underway. New York city requires stores to charge 5 cents per paper bag, with 3 cents going to an environmental fund and 2 cents to a the local government. Astonishingly for a large city in a developed country this report shows a Moroccan immigrant saying that it is already popular in her home country Morocco where the ban on single use plastic bags has reduced litter. Americans are not used to carrying reusable bags to the grocery store in the way Germans or people in other countries are. ...

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France produced 3.1 million tons of plastic waste, with 2.1 million tons being in packaging. A new environment protection law by president Macron requires supermarkets and other stores to use refill stations for packaging so that unpackaged goods can be sold. This is a legal obligation under the law to cut plastic waste.