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Starmer and Yvette Cooper plan action on speeding up 32,000 asylum cases which cost $5.4 billion in 6 months of 2025 for migrants and asylum hotels. Yet speeding up and creating alternative ways to cut asylum cases may not be enough to address the problem which at its root goes to the fact that the British system of justice was not designed to handle people of other countries freely entering the country on boats. Already the Times of London repoirts that there are 111,000 asylum cases up from 7000 in 2022 by June 2025.  A clear warning that Labour's entire program of action on housing, on immigration, on the economy and cost of living, can be derailed by not recognizing the fact that illegal migrants are simply making a travesty of the British system of justice which was not designed for people of other countries freely entering the country. The simple question is can thousands of illegal migrants be placed ahead of the interests of 60 million people of England, Wales and Scotland.  ...

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The G-20 statement for the meeting in Washington D.C. in April 2013, says: "Japan's recent policy actions are intended to stop deflation and support domestic demand." Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's response was that this will help the BOJ implement its monetary expansion program in an orderly way. Kuroda said: "Now that we have obtained the support of the international community, we will be able to implement our program with confidence." These moves come with a call for Europe to proceed with banking union and giving more time for austerity programs to reduce the slowdown in Europe. This happens as fears emerged of a global slowdown in April 2013.

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Experts in Britain, former members of the monetary policy committee, Goodhart, Buiter and Julius, say that loose monetary policy may be appropriate but fiscal policy needs to be tightened. Policy suggestions include freezing health care spending to raising the state pension age very rapidly. There is concern that advantages of fiscal stimulus will be offset by big deficits as the public and businesses see the erosion of confidence from higher deficits and exorbitant national debt.

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India's challenges in securing $1.3 trillion in capital over 5 years for infrastructure spending. This is needed including capital from the private sector to support government funding, so that India can build the infrastructure to create new manufacturing hubs that compete with China as the world's manufacturing workplace. The Biden administration's determination to compete effectively with China using is own supply chain in Asia, and the EU's plan to follow what the Biden administration does, is likely to create a new kind of environment by 2024-2025 that will create a steady flow of capital to India and other parts of Asia to finance this effort for rebuilding its supply chain. The Biden administration is seeking to build a culture change from the old culture pushed by Reagan type free marketers that delivered lost decades in manufacturing and jobs in manufacturing for the US. Biden's State of the Union message was clear- "Folks we're just getting started. We're just getting started." By 2024-2025 the Adani story may just be a footnote to this story as other manufacturers and investors pick up the infrastructure challenges facing the US, EU and India for a new supply chain for the Free World built around self-reliance. The Ukraine war and China incidents such as one that happened recently, will accelerate the rebuilding of the new supply chain on the part of the US and the EU with partners in Asia. And change decades old assumptions and trade relationships over months, not years. ...

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The German state elections will be conducted under new election laws- a voter over 16 years old votes for one of 70 constituencies in the first state election in Baden-Wurttemberg and also votes for a party that helps determine the distribution of seats by party in the state parliament. The CDU candidate Manuel Hagel is leading by small margin over the Greens candidate Cem Ozdemir. This is the first state in 7 state elections in 2026 with cities of Stuttgart and Tubingen, Munich.

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Peter Navarro points out the problem with textbook economics and concepts such as comparitive advantage. Many economists from elite universities ignored for a long time the distortions in world trade arising from state subsidies as they used textbook economics without looking at what was happening in practice. Even as the U.S. runs a trade deficit of $ 1 billion a day with China such text book economists ignored for too long the advantages of state directed industries and state directed investments in creating distortions in trade patterns, and not creating a level playing field for the U.S. Here Peter Navarro desceibes what he calls afaux comparitive advantage built on high nontariff and other barriers. Auto tariffs of China are 10 times that of the U.S. Other barriers are intrusive licensing requirements and foreign ownership restrictions. With subsidized land and capital, export subsidies, and tax preferences, unfair trade advantages can be gaine d in many industries leaving the U.S. in a disadvantaged position. Mr. Navarro is assistant to the U.S. president on trade and manufacturing policy, and director of the White House National Trade Council. ...

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Japanese prime minister Kishida joins president Biden in deciding not to run again with low popularity ratings and cost of living concerns of the public. The LDP administration of prime minister Kishida put through a $100 billion investment package to revive the economy in November 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the Japanese economy GDP growth suffered from a 0.7% decline. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida of the LDP party popularity has remained at around 25% and Kishida has decided not to run again for prime minister. His term expires in 2025. A new LDP leader will be elected. This report says growing voices in the LDP party persuaded Kishida not to run and have a new leader. Inflation which was tame for over a decade has increased with surging prices for oil and gas after the Ukraine war. The situation is similar to the US and EU where rising prices have hurt ordinary people struggling to make a living. Kishida committed Japan to investing 2% of GDP on defense. The effects of economic developments is that the Japanese currency is weakening. ...

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"Humphrey's Executor" is a precedent that bars firing by the president of FTC NLRB etc officials. "Humphrey's Executor" precedent is  being challenged by president DJT before the US Supreme Court and with it the independence of the Fed in 2025. Humphrey was an FTC official who was fired by FDR in the 1930's but died before his case went to the courts. It set the precedent that the president cannot simply fire officials he does not like. DJT challenged this by firing offfical at the National Labor Relations Board. When the US Supreme Court takes up this case it will look sceptically at this precedent, yet will find some way to protect the Fed's independence, says WSJ.

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The actual text of the Feb. 1, 2025 Executive Order  from the White House and president DJT says about the flow of fentanyl that has taken the lives of more of America's young people than the wars- the Korean War, Vietnam War and the First World War combined. That is the astonishing story of what has happened to American society over the last two decades. "The influx of these drugs to our Nation threatens the fabric of our society.  The PRC plays a central role in this challenge, not merely by failing to stem the ultimate source of many illicit drugs distributed in the United States, but by actively sustaining and expanding the business of poisoning our citizens." What the US Supreme Court and Justices Roberts, Thomas, Scalia, Barrett, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, make of this one can only guess. One has only to walk from the US Supreme Court Building to the faces from the 1950's at the Korean War Memorial to get a sense of what the Justices have to be thinking.  ...

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A cargo ship hits Francis Scott Key Bridge which crosses outer Baltimore harbour and the bridge collapses on March 27, 2024. Pictures capture the bridge actually collapsing right in front of our eyes, a reminder of the infrastructure building that was neglected for so long during a period of foreign wars in remote mountains and deserts of the Middle East, and a period of tech and other monopolies where corporations paid less in taxes than teachers, nurses and childcare workers, both depriving the government of needed revenues for nation building infrastructure, and needed investments in manufacturing, health, education, reversing climate change. A period of neglect and lost decades which president Biden and a bipartisan group of Congressman are only now reversing with no time to lose.

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Foreign investors make up only 7% of Russia's domestic bond market compared to 30% for similiarly rated Mexico. Russia is rated BBB by Standard & Poor's. Moody's Investors Services rating is one notch higher. The yield on Russia's 10 year government bond is about 7%, compared to 4.35% for Italy and 1.8% for U.S. Treasurys. Russia's deputy finance minister, Alexei Moiseyev, says he hopes changes will raise the foreign holdings to about 33%. Martin Gilman, a former IMF representative to Russia in 1998, and now a professor at Moscow's Higher School of Economics, says rates will go higher because of appreciation in the ruble and large monetary easing in Europe and the U.S. The situation has changed completely from the 1998 Russian default on debt payments of $160 billion. The IMF estimate is for overall debt to be about 11% of GDP by the end of 2014.

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Under a new program the ECB will tilt the purchase of bonds for maturing debt towards weaker economies. Leading to purchase of $208 billion of bonds of weaker  economies such as Italy. Italy's bond yields climbed to 4.2% in June 2022. This will help prevent the fragmentation of the bonds in Europe into segments and is part of new thinking at ECB after the pandemic. Italy's bond yields dropped and stocks gained after the announcing of the decision. Under Merkel such decisions simply would not take place with the different thinking under that administration.  Today solidarity is uppermost in EU after the pandemic at EU in Brussels, at the ECB, and at the chancellor's office in Germany. No one even thinks twice about this.  Italian bond yields dropped from about and its stock index gained 3.2%. The stress in eurozone is reflected by the gap between the yields of 10 year German and Italian government bonds. It dropped from 2.4% to 2.13% after the decision. To keep the two yields close and not fragment eurozone yields is what preventing fragmentation means. ...

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The U.S. commander in Europe, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, says Russia respects strength, and the U.S. must add capability in this situation where Russia is no longer a partner with the U.S. and Europe as it appeared to be previously. He sees the U.S. as ready to meet all its commitments and protecting democracy. He also says Twitter is not the best way to communicate policy as president Trump does, and that he receives his instructions through the chain of command.

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Fewer workers will support the elderly in the U.S. and the process is accelerating, posing new problems for Social Security programs. Census figures show in 2017 there were 25 Americans 65 years or older for every 100 people in working years, by 2030 this figure goes up to 35 retirees. By 2025 it will reach 33 retirees. By comparison in 2025 Canada would be 40 retirees, Germany 44, Japan 58, and on the lower side India at 13, Mexico 16, China 22. Trustees for Social Security are dipping into the Trust fund in 2018 to pay benefits for first time since 1982.

States are in worse shape $2.6 trillion in assets cover $4 trillion in liabilities in fiscal 2016, according to data from Pew Trust.

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Critics say president Macron's appointment of an obscure official, a mayor of a town in the foothills of the Pyrenees (Prades with 6000 people), is a sign that he plans to be both prime minister and president for the remainder of his term. By selecting someone from the right wing Le Republicain party of Mr. Sarkozy, Mr. Macron now hopes to win reelection in 2020 with a shift to the right. His popularity at 35% is way below that of Edouard Philippe the outgoing prime minister who is at 50% of those polled recently.  Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Macron represent a self focused presidency.

 

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Khedery describes the complete collapse in Sunni- Shiite relations under the Maliki regime and the Iranian influence in Iraqi politics in stark terms. It will take a near miracle, tolerance for religious faiths and opinion, and an exceptional leader, to turn things around and put the decades of misrule of Hussein and Maliki behind. Without that there can be no Iraq. Khedery goes into the misrule in a manner that American political and military leaders only talk about in a sparing manner so as not to make the entire Middle East policy look disastrous.

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The CDU takes 32% of the vote in Saxony down from 39% in 2014, 5 points ahead of the AfD, and he SPD wins in Brandenburg with a 3 point lead over the AfD. The federal government in Berlin is run by a coalition of the CDU and the SPD. The east west divide in Germany clearly shows with the AfD doing well in the former Communist East Germany. People in the east feel that they are "second class citizens" and this plus the migration policy of chancellor Merkel that alienated many including its partner in Bavaria, has given an opening to the AfD that has exploited these divisions. The AfD now has an ultra right wing and both the mainstream parties the CDU of Merkel and the SPD of Willy Brandt campaigned against it. The AfD or Alternative for Germany Party is basically a creation of chancellor Merkel's open migration policy which has affected Europe and may have provided the small margin to the pro-Brexit parties in Britain in the first referendum. The CDU and the SPD now look set to seek new leadership to tackle the problems of infrastructure neglect, the impact of the migration policies in fragmenting politics, increasing inequality, and the policy towards Britain and other states in the EU. ...

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Supreme Court Justices, Roberts, Jackson, Thomas, Kavanaugh, and Alito remain unpersuaded by TikTok arguments before the Court. TikTok's foreign ownership and possibility of the enormous data it collects being over many years in the hands of foreign powers is not taken lightly by the Court. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. -“Are we supposed to ignore the fact that the ultimate parent is, in fact, subject to doing intelligence work for the Chinese government?”  Justice Elena Kagan- “How are those First Amendment rights really being implicated here?” Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.- It is “an enormously powerful, popular application” that is “gathering an arsenal of information about American citizens.” Justice Kavanaugh- “There is a long tradition of preventing foreign ownership or control of media in the United States.” ...

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Mexico's Congress passes changes to the constitution and new oil legislation which will allow foreign companies to compete with state owned Pemex. Challenges remain in the form of creating transparent regulators to implement the legislation, and ensuring that the benefits of the increased investment in the oil industry benefit ordinary Mexicans through a higher growth rate, using cheaper natural gas to support the manufacturing sector, and additional revenues from the increased oil and gas production tha support health, education and infrastructure development.

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Ashwini Bhide, Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation's managing director has provided extraordinary leadership to the organization building India's most advanced Metro. Here she describes the new island concept incorporated in the rail platforms. About 1.7 million passengers will use this line daily, the Colaba-Bandra- Seepz Metro line.She says at each station 20,000 square metres of space has been created with this innovative island concept. There are 26 stations that are part of the Metro 3 line. Phase 1 begins by December 2023 from BKC to Aarey.

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China is slowing infrastructure projects after loaning $30 billion to Venezuela. As Venezuela's economy declined under Maduro Venezuela is paying this off with oil exports in what is called a creditor trap. Both Russia and China are intent on trade with the US, Russia to open up business and trade and China to preserve it's trading and business relationship for its exports at a difficult time for it's economy. This tacitly preserves the idea of US direction in a beneficial way for the western hemisphere that was part of the message in 1823 by president Monroe to Congress. In the Mexican War, through Manifest Destiny during the administration of James Polk in 1843 this was still the accepted idea when Ulysses Grant a future president and civil war general on the side of Lincoln fought in that war. This brought slavery free, Spanish feudalism free, democratic processes and modernized economies to California, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado, much of the West and the Pacific shoreline. Russia hopes to get the US to accept it's aspirations to be a modern Northern power in Europe. The US DJT Republican administration has shown it's respect for Russia in its zone of influence, with it's main objection to Russia in Ukraine being the massive invasion of a neighboring country. When compared to Mexico it was the US replacing the Spanish who had invaded the Aztec tribes in Mexico setting up feudal regimes, not the US invading a neighboring country. The European Union and Germany now bear the burden of defending Western Europe as a European power. The situation is similar in Asia where China has it's area of influence and India, Japan, Australia as Asian powers sharing zones of influence in Asia with China, so that the US can maintain good relations with China including fair trade that brings back it's manufacturing. The US would continue to support Taiwan as an independent country. This balance can ensure peace in the Americas, Europe and Asia as nations modernize and choose better governance under governments that relate to their history and geography, as opposed to Communist and anti-communist or democratic or anti-democratic, when they meet the aspirations of their people.   ...

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Biden will talk to America tonight at 7pm after the passage of the historic and truly bipartisan Bipartisan Debt Agreement of 2023, that sets the pathways for America moving forward on this day in June 2023 meeting the challenge of leadership in the world.

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Increasing regulation on Mexico's telephone monopoly of America Movil, and Telmex, part of Carlos Slim's telephone business in Mexico. Mexico's three main parties have agreed to increase regulation on the monopoly to reduce the high charges paid by Mexico's telecom users. Estimates by OECD show Mexicans paying an extra $13 billion a year from 2005 to 2009 because of the monopoly and high prices. The administration of Pena Nieto made controlling telecom and other monopolies an important part of its program. To get an idea of the extent of the monopolistic control - 70 percent of the cellphone market and 65 percent of fixed lines are controlled by companies run by Slim.  AT&T is now a competitor and is helping bring down high cellphone plan prices.

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Advice from David Walker on the role of a chairman of a large bank and good bank governance. This is part of a 184 page report prepared for UK bank governance practices following the financial crisis. David Walker is now the new chairman of Barclays and considered an excellent choice with the experience and wisdom to correct the problems facing the financial industry. He calls for putting corporate governance at the centre of things in the current environment- this applies to banks in Europe and the U.S.- in the following passage from the report which deserves careful reading: "The need now is to bring corporate governance issues closer to centre stage. Better financial regulation has much to accomplish, but cannot alone satisfactorily assure performance of the major banks at the heart of the free market economy. These entities must also be better governed... The behavioural changes that may be needed are unlikely to be fostered by regulatory fiat, which in any event risks provoking unintended consequences. Behavioural improvement is more likely to be achieved through clearer identification of best practice and more effective but, in most areas, non-statutory routes to implementation so that boards and their major owners feel "ownership" of good corporate governance." Walker calls the role of the chairman paramount in doing this, requiring "exceptional leadership skills and the ability to get confidently and competently to grips with major strategic issues." This means that if done right there will be little time for a chairman to do any other activity....

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This article in the Economist following the state election in Berlin, says it shows Merkel and the CDU as still the only likely option to form a new coalition in the 2017 federal elections. Even though six parties emerged in the Berlin election- the left parties SPD and Die Linke, the Greens,CDU, AfD, FDP- the situation is so fragmented that the CDU still remains the leading party nationwide. The Economist points out that a Greens and left parties coalition as in Thuringia is not an option at the federal level, because most Germans are not in favor of a SPD, left party Die Linke, and Greens coalition at the national level. The opposition from the CSU inside the CDU-CSU parties to Merkel's refugee policy,  with Seehofer calling for a numerical limit to refugees, is it says presents the only real challenge to Merkel. Yet Merkel has already tackled that problem, as the new refugee numbers are dropping dramatically. and Merkel has already pointed out that the refugee crisis came when she and her government were caught unprepared. By taking the right steps to assuage voter sentiment as she has deftly done throughout her terms in office, staying close to what voters generally accept as the best way forward, a year from now Merkel and the CDU may as she says be seen as having taken actions that best reflect Germany's interests in the long term. ...