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Lessons can be learned about careful reopening in fighting the coronavirus from other countries. Here the Netherlands experienced a rise of cases by 500% within two weeks of reopening after some poor decisions. The Mark Rutte government decided to open all bars and nightclubs resulting in a twelve fold surge in these locations in one week. Most of the new coronavirus cases were in people 18-29. Data from Dutch public health institute shows 4 out of 10 new cases linked to bars and nightclubs with 262% surge in cases for young people 18-24 years. This goes to show that with the vaccination drive what we see is the cases shifting to younger people, the unvaccinated, and to activities like nightlife. People going to work, or doing hybrid remote work with trips to the office, workers in factories, people doing essential shopping, are not causing the rise in cases. Much can be learned from these examples in working out reopening that does not lead to new crises with surging cases in new waves of coronavirus. Earlier in 2020 summer tourists who ignored mask and social distancing restrictions in Croatia brought on a post summer coronavirus wave to Germany and Austria. This time Greece and Portugal are introducing restrictions. Greece plans to make vaccine health pass required effective July 21 to go into restaurants. Another lesson from Netherlands this week is that a 20,000 person music event of 2 days in Utrecht where QR codes were required showing vaccination or PCR tests failed. About 1000 cases were attributed to the Utrecht event alone. Reasons given are that people faked the QR codes, or that the covid testing system produced too many false results as much as 20%. The same QR code system was followed at nightclubs resulting in big problems. One can never be sure that things work as expected and the risks are great as this adds up. Even vaccines offer limited protection and only if fully vaccinated depending on the type of vaccine. One dose of the vaccine is simply inadequate, and obesity, other morbidities can lead to problems. Withdrawing the mandatory use of face masks in most situations is also a risky decision of the Dutch government. Face masks offer the added protection at a time of variants that spread quckly, and when large parts of the population have only one dose of the vaccine, some elderly are still not vaccinated, and young people have not been vaccinated in large numbers. ...

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A nuclear plant in a war zone with repeated shelling? This is taken up in this debate video of 44 minutes in FR24 which you can click on. The world has not seen this since the start of nuclear energy from plants in the 1950's. Calder Hall the first UK nuclear power station and the first in western Europe started in 1956. Eisenhower opened the first US nuclear power station Shippingport on the Ohio river in Pennsylvania, 50 kilometres from Pittsburgh in 1958 as part of the Atoms for Peace Program. The US built 54 nuclear plants that are operating today in 2022 generating 50% of the renewable energy in use today in the US. The question is what does the unthinkable conducted by the Russians and Ukrainians, by weaponizing a nuclear plant do to public perception of the safety of the Atoms for Peace Program initiated by president Eisenhower in 1954? What does this damaging of public safety perceptions after Fukushima do to the Atoms for Peace type of programs in China India, and European Union that are part of the emissions cutting programs in the world? These are serious questions at a time when climate change is not simply a word but means floods, fires, drought, and declining food production all over the world from Spain to Pakistan, from Germany to China. China and India are affected. China has 53 nuclear plants in 2021 with 50 GW and plans to double this by 2030. India has 22 nuclear plants  with 8 GW in 2021 and plans to triple this to 22 GW by 2030. How will climate change be tackled with public safety perceptions affected with another nuclear accident like that in Fukushima arising from shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. As the president of the UN Security Council Zhang Jun of China clearly stated at the UN SC meeting last week that China opposed use of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant by Russia (or Ukraine) in any way that could lead to damaging nuclear safety leading to an unintended accident. China only gets about 5% of its energy from nuclear, India about 3%, and this will need to increase multiple times to tackle climate change. France gets 70% of its energy from nuclear, the US 20%, by comparison. Nuclear energy safety and clear rules to prevent weaponizing of nuclear plant zones is essential and a solution like that developed for the food grain shipments from Odessa through Black Sea to the Mediterranean has to be arranged quickly. ...

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This WSJ report on critical analysis of coronavirus data has a very useful chart of Estimated Range of Symptomatic Cases Reported by Country. Complete coronavirus data for all symptomatic persons who have the coronavirus infection is lacking in most countries. Many people in large populations have symptoms and are positive but are not reflected in the official data collection. This is a big problem as the total number of cases are understated by a magnitude of twice to five times the numbers reported in official tally.   South Korea has done a good job of getting more of the symptomatic people with the infection in its data, as about 53% to 90% of such persons are reflected in official data. Next comes Germany at a range of 38% to 55%.  China comes third and has about 28% to about 38% of such persons reflected in its data, the U.S. currently on April 4 at about 14% to 19%, according to this chart in the WSJ. The source for this is Mathematical Modeling Center at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. What this means is that the US. number of cases at 278,000  reported infected people with symptoms (April 4) is only 14% to 19% of the true number. Another way to say this is that the actual infected persons with symptoms is about 5 times what is reported, or over 1 million not the 278,000 reported.  As happens for China data collection agencies may never get the true number. To be comparable to the Chinese numbers, as the U.S. is a large country, the figure closer to the true numbers would be twice the 278,000 reported or over half a million symptomatic infections of coronavirus in the U.S. Why is this data important. With widespread testing as in South Korea one gets data that tells one how many people are infected (the size of the problem) and therefore the resources needed and the point of greatest impact. Also it tells one the typical transmission rate per person, and it helps hospitals in each area know what to expect and what resources are needed to prepare- not find people suddenly turn up in the E.R. in unpredictable numbers. The lack of widespread testing and better reporting in the data to get a grip on the pandemic is shown in this chart for countries hardest hit, less than 5-6% for Italy and Spain. The UK and France at 5-8%.   ...

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Reporters in this report from the Brussels Bureau chief and the White House reporter, also include bureau reporters from Europe, Africa, Asia and Latin America. They all say that Kamala Harris has a firm grip on international affairs. Harris goes beyond this in 2024- a unique and special understanding of the role of women in the renewal of Western and Asian societies. Society does best when women have a large role and make significant contributions is lost on Europeans and Americans yet a core belief in Asia and in India, where it is is seen as part of the reason for collapse of Asian civilizations to Europeans in the 18th and 19th century. From Europe Chancellor Scholz of Germany says of Harris whom he knows from her attending 3 consecutive Munich Security Conferences as Biden's representative. “She is a competent and experienced politician who knows exactly what she is doing and has a very clear idea of her country’s role, of developments in the world, and of the challenges we face." France's Macron has spent hours with Harris on her 5 day visit to France to soothe French feelings as reassure them following the US deal with Australia for nuclear submarines that excluded the French. During this trip she spent time at the Pasteur Institute where her mother Shyamala Gopalan once worked. From Mexico and South Korea one has another side of Harris where she has used official trips to hold discussions with women's groups to take notes and ask questions to understand women's issues around the world. This makes her exceptional as a choice for women in 2024, not just for reproductive rights but for a person who will listen with profound interest to what they say and relate to them. There is a saying in India that prime minister Modi also cites which says society does well only when it gives women the best place to make their own unique contribution. Lost on Europeans and Americans is this idea that Asians and particularly in India, see the failure to do this as part of the collapse of Asian civilizations to European advance in the 18th and 19th century. From Seoul, South Korea-"I was most impressed when she said that a society that helps its women fulfill their dreams and pursue their professional careers without discrimination is an advanced society,” said Baik Hyun Wook, head of the Korean Medical Women’s Association. ...

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Whitney Harris was assistant to Robert Jackson, the chief prosecutor of the Nuremberg War Crimes Tribunal. He did much of the investigative work to document the genocide. He told Der Spiegel in 2005 he had no idea of the scale of crimes when he started gathering evidence. He persevered in his efforts to establish a permanent International Criminal Court after the war. In the post war period he taught law at Southern Methodist University, and was a corporate attorney for Southwestern Bell Telephone Company.

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JP Morgan CEO Dimon, says the lack of enough worker training is hurting the U.S. with unemployment one or two percentage points because of this. The lack of enough training efforts by business and government to add technical skills to workers existing skills is resulting in many jobs going unfilled in manufacturing and other fields.

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Greece's national statistics agency Elstat shows data indicating a rapidly deteriorating Greek economy. The unemployment rate went up to 20.9% in November, up from 18.2 % the prior month, with the total number of unemployed at 1.029 million. Industrial output declined by 11.3% in December 2011 compared to the prior year. The unemployment rate is 48% for young people ages 15-24 for November 2011 compared to 35.6% in the prior year. For women the unemployment rate was 25.4% in November, compared to 17% the prior year. In the region of Attica, which includes Athens, the unemployment rate was 21.1% in November compared to 19.2% in October, and 13.9% the prior year. This creates new concern whether austerity measures will work and whether the Greek people can go through a decade of austerity programs, with debt still at 120% of GDP in 2020 under the program designed by the EU and the IMF, or whether there are other solutions that offer more hope of recovery.

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A worldwide trend to shorter term borrowing means that institutions and sovereign governments will compete in the capital markets, as they try to roll over existing borrowing by 2012. The US has $1.3 trillion to roll over by 2012. Worldwide about $5 trillion has to be rolled over, and of this $2.6 trillion is in Europe. With the European financial crisis which started in Greece it is becoming harder for sovereign governments to borrow in capital markets at favorable rates. A former economist of the Bank of England says this is of the highest importance for lending and for growth. The implications are reduced lending by banks to businesses and consumers, reducing output and growth, and limiting reductions in unemployment. It is a big issue say analysts, as debt needs to be rolled over over shorter periods. Moody's study shows new bond issues by banks during the last 5 years matured at an average 4.7 years. The stress say experts is likely to be on the less healthy banks like the savings banks in Spain, Landesbanks in Germany. Stress tests on European banks will be out July 23, 2010....

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The nuclear deal reached in the 2013 Geneva negotiations between Iran and the EU, U.S., Russia, France, Germany, UK and China, a diplomatic bloc named the P5+1. Iran gets sanctions relief that would bring in an additional $6-7 billion dollars. In return Iran agrees to increased International Atomic Energy Agency inspections of the heavy water reactor in Arak, to not start the facility or lead it with nuclear fuel. Earlier France had pushed for a complete dismantling of that reactor. Iran will cap its uranium enrichment to levels needed only for fuel in a reactor, of 3.5%-5%, and maintain its total low enriched nuclear fuel at the current level of about 6 tons for the six month period in which further negotiations will take place. As the EU representative put it, this provides the time and space to reach a serious deal. It does not ship out and destroy the estimated 19,000 centrifuge machines in Iran to produce nuclear fuel. A sticking point was Iran's insistence that it has a right to develop and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, which Iran says is part of the UN Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty....

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GM says that 19,000 employees have taken buyout or early retirement offers and most of them will leave the payroll by July 1, 2008. This will cut GM's workforce by 24%. GM is considering idling at least one plant and discontinuing some product lines as SUV's and truks go into deep sales decline. Most significant is the fact that is incredible but true that with this round of buyouts and retirements about 53,000 workers or roughly half of its workforce has agreed to leave the company since the beginning of 2006. It shows how the bubble in automobiles (see the link to a recent WSJ article on this) has resulted in such severe impact, and moved to create a structural shift in the USA market for automobiles, making them smaller in size and the total number sold in a maturing market smaller also. This is something already ocurring gradually in Japan and Germany from their peak years in auto sales and a shift to overseas slaes as is happening with GM and Ford also as they shift focus to overseas markets. Sales in Brazil were cited by GM CEO Wagoner recently as helping improve GM's otherwise poor results....

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India places a $3 billion order for 1200 electric locomotives and railway modernization with Siemens. It includes a 35 year contract for maintenance. The equivalent of 800,000 trucks can be replaced by these locomotives over the lifetime. Siemens CEO Roland Busch says "This will help India create the world's largest green rail network, as our locomotives will save the equivalent of 800 million tons of CO2 emissions over their lifecycles."

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Stephen Fidler of the WSJ lists 6 factors that will influence the direction of the war in Ukraine.  1. The weather. This will affect operations as muddy wet conditions will limit movement.  2. Bakhmut. Russia is using persistent attacks on this city as a way to show people in Russia that it is making gains in a political effort more than a military one. 3. Ukrainian offensives in the Zaporizhia region in the south. Since this report was written Russia has advanced its forces in this area as Ukraine still awaits western aid in the form of Leopard tanks and other tanks. Russia has called up 300,000 reservists and this is now making an impact in the Russian efforts to advance. 4. Russian defenses. Russian forces are dug in across a smaller front 550 miles instead of 700 after ceding some territory to Ukraine, of which 240 miles are river barriers. Trenches and excavations extend all the way to Crimean beaches. 5. Russian offensives using the 300,000 reservists that were called up and new discipline in the forces. Here experts say the reservists are not expected to do what trained Russian regular armed forces could not do. An attack from Belarus is seen as less likely as massing of forces there would be detected early by western allies of Ukraine. 6. Events outside Ukraine Russia is counting on waning support for Ukraine as Republicans in the House of Representatives raise the debate of the issues in this war and look for alternative solutions. French president Macron's views and German Social Democrats views are also against escalating the war, and are only taking steps for military support one step at a time to not let Russia be seen as coming out of this war as winning by staging an unprovoked attack on a friendly neighbor. ...

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Britain's prime minister Boris Johnson and his negotiating team meet EU president Ursula Leyen for dinner in Brussels on December 8, 2020, to get over fundamental differences for a Brexit deal. This report in The Guardian describes the details of that dinner meeting.  Boris Johnson told parliament that the European Union was asking Britain to be the only country in the world not to have sovereign control over its own fishing waters. He said the EU was also asking that if the EU were to pass a new law that Britain does not comply with they would have the right to  automatically punish Britain or retaliate. On the issue of environmental and other laws that relate to the EU and Britain they are both at the same level today. The EU is worried that in future competition between Britain and the EU in trade and business Britain could relax environmental or other laws to gain an unfair advantage. Boris Johnson and his Conservative party back benchers insist that Britain should have sole right to make its own laws. France's Macron introduced the idea of automatic retaliation as a way to get Britain to keep a level playing field. Both sides see this as a negotiating tactic, hence the dinner meeting as a way to let top negotiators including the leaders to set an informal tone to the final stage of tough negotiating. Merkel made her own remarks to the German parliament saying she was willing to let the negotiations collapse if Britain rejected the EU approach. Merkel stated that if Britain insisted on certain conditions EU could not accept she was willing to let Britain leave without an exit agreement. This way if something went wrong Merkel would not take the blame.   ...

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After the debt swap of old bonds for new bonds with private bondholders for an estimated 53% haircut, the IMF's March 2012 report on Greece says a lot remains unresolved. It predicts a "disorderly exit from the euro" without further help. The April 2012 elections may result in a dilution to committments to austerity policies in Greece, as these policies are highly unpopular in Greece. Greece is still "accident-prone." And competitiveness issues may take over a decade to resolve.

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Anne- Marie Slaughter's new book Unfinished Business is reviewed by Laura Vanderkam. Ms. Slaughter says in her new book that part of the unfinished business for women in the workplace is to give women time for child care duties in a way that does not hurt their careers. Anne Marie makes the case on the grounds that this is a social bias. Yet there are many reasons beyond simple fairness, and the value of parental work. Women can contribute to society in different ways than men. For example reports show women are more interested in using technical skills in ways that will benefit developing countries. Women bring a different perspective than men. Women are also prominent in scientific fields. For this contribution to grow and enrich society it can be enlarged by giving women proper benefit for maternity leave, and preserving the ability to come back and contribute in the same way after the maternity leave period is over. Toshiba did this for a female engineer who had made significant contributions in the technical field. Doing this would also help in other ways. It could make it more attractive for women to have kids knowing it will not hurt their careers or the careers of their partners. This is needed in western societies with falling birthrates and declining number of young people to support larger numbers of older people....

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A NATO summit has tension and uncertainty with president Trump pushing forward his idea that Europe should take on a larger share of the burden for its own defense. Some of this goal was achieved with the jawboning style of Mr. Trump- NATO plans to increase military spending and increase EUropean governments share of defense spending. A European Defense Fund with 13 billion euros of funding is being set up to develop military capabilities. This is also what Mr. Trump hopes to accomplish by using this approach where other approaches were resisted by Germany in previous American administrations from Bush to Obama. It is also why Mr. Trump says he thinks NATO is now stronger than before, even though his approach throughout is unorthodox from Korea to NATO. Europeans see a divergence between the U.S. and EU on issues- such as Iran, Middle East and Israel, and Mr. Trump's efforts to maintain good ties with Russia meeting Mr. Putin after the Summit. This leads to a sense that the U.S. cannot be depended on in the face of threats to the EU. Mr. Trump's policy suggests the U.S. has no permanent friends or permanent enemies, will follow its own interests independently of its transatlantic partners, says one expert. At the root of the problem lies Trump's conviction that the European nations benefit economically by spending less on defense and thrusting more of the burden on the U.S. -even after 2 costly wars have diminished American desire to take on responsibility especially as other economies have prospered better than the U.S. ...