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Germany's growth rate for GDP in 2016 was 1.9% compared to 2015. This is the highest growth rate in half a decade, and better than 2015 when the growth in GDP was 1.7%. Fiscal surplus was 0.6% of GDP in 2016. Germany's Economics and Technology Ministry says the economy is improving because of the positive labor situation, rising incomes and consumer spending. Real estate boom is also helping growth, and also the state spending including on refugees accomodation. Exports have surged and the economy has recovered from the Brexit effect. Exports surged to 1.1 trillion euros in 11 months of 2016.

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Rupee has risen by 9% so far this year in 2007, to 40.58 to the US dollar. The Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank has so far not intervened in the markets to slow its rise. Will it affect exports? Its not expected to have much impact on outsourcing of tech and IT work as competition from Vietnam, Philippines and rest of Asia is still weak. Manufacturing exports could be affected. Merchandise exports went up by about 9% in March 2007. The RBI has not intervened because of efforts to restrain inflation, and bring it down from over 5% to drop below 5% as imports become cheaper.

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The failure of the northern electricity grid in India and the huge power outage in 8 states affecting 369 million people on July 30, 2012. This includes the capital city of New Delhi. The outage was a result of the northern grid taking more than its quota of power from the national electricity grid in India. Analysts say India has a shortage of about 10% of electricity needs. Over half of India's electricity generation capacity of 205 gigawatts is based on coal. Coal India which is the largest producer has failed to meet growing demand and the coal shortages are making it difficult to expand power capacity. The national plan is to increase capacity by 44% in 5 years.

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India's Supreme Court rules on Aadhaar, India's biometric identification program, saying privacy is a fundamental right. Aadhar was started in 2009 as a way to help the poorest citizens and prevent leakage of fuel and food subsidies, and to fight corruption. Using biometric technology the government of prime minister Modi has extended the program as a way to build a database of digital fingerprints, iris scans of most of India's 1.2 billion people as part of a way to extend this into a national id card system for driver licenses, bank accounts, travel on Indian railways, making financial transactions. The government contends that privacy is not a fundamental right in a poor country where most citizens suffer from corruption and leakage of services and subsidies, given that basic safeguards against abuse are introduced. The Court's decision says privacy rights should be taken into account against surveillance by the state and for protection of data, and that it was part of the intrinsic rights of citizens to life and liberty. ...

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Khair says in the Hindu newspaper, that the problem in India is not that the BJP is gaining ground, but that the Opposition is divided and is shrinking. The shift of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar to the BJP leaves the Opposition in disarray. The Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is seen as weak and lacking the charisma of Nehru. The dynastic control by the family and Rahul Gandhi's leadership are serious problems for the opposition. After the victory in Uttar Pradesh state, and the erosion of support for Congress, India lacks a strong Opposition in parliament, which is not good for the country, says Khair. 

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There are problems with TikTok as social media app that are shown under The Enemy Within in Movement for Global Literacy of Lyrarc.com that relate to global literacy of children spending many hours on the app taking time away from homework and reading, when over half of American children 12-18  perform below basic requirements on reading proficiency tests. Similar loss of reading comprehension in UK and France. China can regulate its internet by restricting it in ways that won't hurt literacy in China. India has banned the app.  There are problems with TikTok that relate to literacy and cultural literacy that Democrats or Republicans or the Supreme Court have failed to bring up let alone address. These concerns should grow in the minds of Americans concerned about preserving the cultural literacy that has existed in the US for the last 200 years- it is about who Americans are as a Nation of immigrants from Europe of the Renaissance and the Modern World. US is a mix of population from European nations of 204 million, of a black population of about 48 million in 2025, 7 million native Americans, and Spanish speaking Americans of 62 million, Asian population of 25 million. The US is at a critical juncture in deciding what kind of a nation it will be. Will it lose it's basic character of a nation which draws its inspiration from European civilization's defining characteristics of the Renaissance, the evolution of science and democratic forms of government leading to creation of the Modern World. The 25 million Asians immigrated to the US for a large part seeking this kind of modernization of society from what they left behind and this is largely true of Spanish speaking immigrants and Spanish settlers who settled California, Texas and Florida as Spain settled the American colonies before the English and French. TikTok ban opposed decreased from 2023 to end of 2024 by 18% from 50% to 32%, according to Pew Research. Pew does not say that this is the result of growing use of TikTok by teenagers and children for entertainment by 12-15% in the period 2023-2025. Between 2021 and 2023 use of TikTok in the US increased by 12% from 21% to 33% from which we can extrapolate that it increased by about 12-15% between 2023 and 2025 if it is growing at the same pace. Politicians oblivious of the effects on cultural literacy in the US are allowing it to be embedded in the US in ways that hurt basic reading and cultural literacy skills. ...

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Restricitons on FDI facing Vodafone's acquisition of Essar in the telecom industry are likely to become a thing of the past as India is hungry for foreign investment. The latest figures are $15 billion FDI in 2006, with $6 billion in manufacturing, with a target of $25 billion in 2007. The FDI to GDP is 1.5% compared to China's decade long 3%.

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High on the agenda for the G-20 Feb. 2013 meeting in Moscow is how to fund infrastructure projects in emerging market countries. About $191 billion in infrastructure investment is needed annually in South Asia alone, according to the World Bank. India's Economic Affairs Secretary, Arvind Mayaram, points to the need for finding innovative ways of funding and reducing the risks for private companies by some kind of joint effort from developed and emerging market countries. The needs are extensive especially in transportation, water, electricity, sanitation. Growth lower than potential is facing India- with estimates of growth at just around 5% for the fiscal year ending in 2013. This affects Europe and the U.S. as there is less demand for exports of developed countries. Transportation projects critical to easing congested overloaded rail lines in Jakarta and Manila could not get financing under existing arrangements, making this problem a serious priority.

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Considering the fines and sanctions by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, during the time Mary Schapiro headed the organization from 2007 -2008, it did not take a serious watchdog role over the brokerage business that it was expected to supervise. NASD which she formerly headed, and FINRA, did several examinations of the brokerage business of Mr Madoff who ran a$50 billion Ponzi scheme, but failed to find anything wrong. Her agency in 2007 concluded that Madoff's firm had only violated some technical rules. Also fines and sanctions assessed by FINRA declined during the time she headed it. Fines levied by FINRA declined from $148 million in 2005, the year of her predecessor, to $40 million in 2008. Ms. Schapiro headed NASD regulatory arm in 1996, NASD itself in 2006, and FINRA after its creation in 2007. FINRA is a private agency set up by Wall Street to regulate itself. As the prevailing opinion at the time, with the SEC severely understaffed, was that Wall Street could regulate itself, agencies like FINRA had a bigger responsibility than was realized by Ms Schapiro and others. One securities lawyer who represented firms examined by FINRA, says FINRA should at least have asked more questions about the Madoff operation. In a November 2006 speech to the Securites Industry and Financial Markets Association, Mary Schapiro says, "we remain utterly committed to our regulatory mission but we should be also committed to doing no unnecessary harm or restriction to innovation in the industry and markets". Some of the stuff that went on in the name of innovation went against some basics and commonsense, and the failure to follow tested old good financial practices to separate sound innovation from unsound innovation, was a failure of that period. Schapiro's statement seemed to be a contradiction of a severe nature when examined closely, because how could she remain committed 100% to the regulatory mission if she made strong exceptions for innovations whose true logic and effectiveness only time could tell. The element of caution that should be a key part of the regulator's temperament and mental build was entirely missing. See the link to financial regulators in India, and of how this task was handled with that element of caution and skepticism of prevailing opinion. Other failure of FINRA is that it lagged behind state regulators in catching upto the mess resulting in afreeze up of auction rate securites markets. In June and July 2008, Massachusetts and New York securities regulators filed fraud charges against big firms in that matter. Another failure was the failure to look into the mortgage securites that were held in brokerage accounts and see that the valuations of these securites are sound. Finra only filed small cases against Lehman Brothers, with a fine of only $125,000 for failing to keep accurate books and records. As late as May 7, 2008 in speaking at the Financial Services Institute meeting, Schapiro was asked about what FINRA was doing to regulate complex packaged products like mortgage securites. And even though credit rating agencies had by this time been exposed as having failed, Ms Schapiro would only say, according to a financial advisor who asked the question, that "we have credit rating agencies that rate them." A pretty hands off view for a regulator when the cracks in the system were already exposed in mid 2008. Another facet of this is the high levels of compensation especially for a regulator. For her job at FINRA she received pay of $3.1 million a year including $2.5 million in compensation and $615,000 in benefits and deferred pay. In 2007 she also earned $449,000 in cash and stock grants as director of Duke Energy and Kraft Foods. All of which means that it is straining credulity for Obama to suggest that Mary Schapiro is the best person the Democrats could find for this critical job, in which the record has been severely impaired....

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Reliance Industries plan for new 4G telecom network in India using the latest technologies.

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Google's head of operations in India, Rajan Anandan, cites estimates of 200 million new internet users in India by 2014. An estimated 100 millon Indians were online in 2010. The surge in internet use is expected with the roll out of high speed internet technology and expected sales of low cost smartphones using Android software. Most of the Indian advertising dollars go to print and television advertising. As a result online advertising spending is only about 200 million dollars. One aspect of Indian user behaviour is the preference for the internet as the first source for research when it comes to buying cars or other products. Google has 63 million Indian users for its search service, according to ViziSense, an Indian web metrics firm. Anandan says Indian advertisers could benefit from an Internet first strategy to reach affluent urban consumers.

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Most people hae not heard the name Radhabinod Pal the sole dissenting judge at the Allied Tribunal who questioned its legitimacy in a dissenting opinion. Here we learn that Judge Pal's opinion sealed a friendship between him and Abe's grandfather Nobusuke Kishi charged with war crimes but never tried. Mr Abe visited the Netaji Subhas Bose museum in Calcutta and said that he was determined to strengthen Japanese Indian bilateral relations that Bose wanted to see. Appears to be an emotional bond and a visit that aroused old feelings from a family tie for Abe. Note that India and Japan vowed to seal a economic partnership by December. Small as this seems this may be a big turning point for South Asia. See the details of the Japanese investment plans in India especially in infrastructure projects in related article.

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How ArvinMeritor navigated the treacherous waters of the automotive parts buzsiness since 2000 when the company was formed taking in the automotive business of Rockwell International in Troy, Michigan. The combination was designed to bring the automotive parts business for roof and door systems, chassis and wheel products with the comercial truck business which makes drivetrain systems and components like axles, drivelines and braking systems. The business is in turmoil and ArvinMeritor last recorded a profit in 2005. Here is how they did it. First, the combination provided some linited diversification for the cyclicality of the automotive business passenger cars and trucking together. By 2004 the foreign makers especially the Japanese were taking market share from the Detroit Big Three car makers which only accelerated after that when the Big Three overconcentrated on SUV's and had no competitive car lineup to match the Japanese in 2007 and 2008. The Big three closed plants and companies like ArvinMeritor closed plants also. In the last couple of years first GM and then Ford began to emphasize emerging market countries like China, Russia, Brazil and India. Wagoner GM's CEO in citing improved results in 2008 specifically referred to the $500 million profit in Brazil as making this possible. He also said that when investors see the improved results so early they are forgetting that the model that GM has setup has changed completely from the model that investors were used to in previous years which was a large and growing US focussed market base. Now its a global focussed market base with particular focus on emerging markets. ArvinMeritor has followed this pattern and set up parts plants in new countries like Russia to supply the Big Three's plants there. But it appears from Phil Martens, Arvin Innovation's CEO's statement that only 20% of global automotive sales for ArvinInnovation, the automobile part of the busines that is being setup as a separate company, are coming from the Big Three of Detroit. And 65% of the sales are coming from outside North America. Which suggests that 15% of sales are coming from the foreign carmakers in North America. ArvinMeritor closed 11 plants in North America and the new company Arvin Innovation has 42 facilities in 16 countries with sales of $2.2 billion in fiscal 2007. ...

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The Survey published by Britain's Nationa Health Service (NHS) shows an increase by about half since 2017. The pandemic has made the problem severe with lockdowns, closure of schools and inequality in society leaving many children without access to online learning because of a lack of internet. What is seen early in this NHS Survey is probably true for many countries Mexico to Brazil, India to Indonesia, Egypt to South Africa, much of Europe and the US. This needs to be addressed quickly, for children. It also needs to be addressed for adults. 

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What were the stories in the Economist magazine that were the most read stories of 2019? Not on president Trump. On Malaysia, China under Jinping, and exodus from San Francisco and Silicon Valley. The most read article was on the newly elected president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro. The mismanagement of the economy particularly extravagant state spending on the Olympics and soccer stadiums for the World Cup at the expense of basic sanitation services, bus and transport services, health services, led to the result of a majority of Brazilians rejecting the Workers Party and its leader former president Lula. Unfortunately most of the media including the Economist did not draw attention to this gap. During a period in which income from mining with export of iron ore, and soyabeans to China, enabled Brazil to live beyond its means, there was no effort to draw attention to glaring gaps in development of public services such as sanitation, bus services and transport, lack of building infrastructure other than to support mining. Glaring gaps in education and health services made the situation worse. The second most read piece in the Economist  was on March 10th- Malaysia's PM is about to steal an election. Here the Economist magazine joined the Wall Street Journal which originally broke the story on the 1MDB fund and irregularities in Malaysia where a development fund was misused by the government. Najib actually lost that election and the WSJ covered the story of the developments that followed in which Malaysia's new governemnt led by a returning former prime minister in his nineties Mahathir Mohammed, ousted his own protege Mr. Najib.  The third most read piece in the Economist magazine was - How the West got China Wrong.  Unfortunately the Economist magazine and most of the media covered China in the two decade long boom years without covering the other emerging story as well in which Mr. Lighthizer (now president Trump's top trade adviser) and others questioned the huge unsustainable trade surpluses in U.S. trade with China. With the economy facing huge downside risks and rising trade tensions with the U.S. Chinese president Jinping's move to remove the limit on terms in office in the Constitution was considered a shift from the notion that China was likely to turn into a democracy. Mr. Jinping had already completed his first term in office and the anti-corruption campaign, managing the economic boom for a soft landing, was carried out with the central leadership of the party, after the destabilization evident in the early part of Xi Jinping's first term. Much of China's path was predictable and rational behaviour in its national interest, what was not clearly defined or defended was the way the U.S. could sustain the trade deficits that had reached a billion dollars a day. Leading to Mr. Trump seizing on this as an election issue to form a bloc of voters separate from the two main parties, the Republicans and the Democrats. The fifth most read piece was on Oct 11, 2018- the next recession. It pointed out that with low interest rates central banks in the U.S. and Europe and America could not cope effectively with a recession. The sixth most read piece was on June 29, 2018- Bullshit jobs and the yoke of managerial feudalism. It cited Prof. David Graeber of the London School of Economics, who wrote a short essay that went viral on the prevalence of work that had no social or economic reason to exist, work he called "bullshit jobs". Graeber said people want to feel they are transforming the world around them in a way that is leading to a positive difference. No. 7, 8, 9, were on Bitcoin, Netflix and programming language Python. No. 10 most read was on Aug. 30, 2018- Why startups are leaving Silicon Valley. It showed that in 2017 more people left the county of San Francisco than entered. The main reason the cost of living was burdensome and out of control. As Amazon shifts attention to India and Brazil, and Apple pulls back from India, social media companies coming under fire for disinformation, this period of Tech is making way for a shift in a new direction. A direction that focuses on people's lives, wages, spending on much needed infrastructure and services. ...

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Jurio Osawa talks to Toshiba Corp.'s CEO, Norio Sasaki about Toshiba's plans to increase investments in infrastructure businesses, including nuclear energy. Sasaki sees continuing need to use nuclear energy because of limited supplies of oil and gas to meet needs in emerging markets. He sees demand growing for nuclear energy in China, Brazil, India, Turkey and Vietnam. Toshiba owns Westinghouse Electric, a maker of nuclear power equipment, and acquired Landis+Gyr, a Swiss company which makes advanced power meters. Demand for Westinghouses' AP1000 reactors with safety equipment in China is expected to grow from the 4 being built today to 20 in 2020, and 70 in 2030. He says the consumer electronics businesses have suffered because of the strong yen, and for the failure of Japanese companies to taking strong action to improve their competitive position and staying ahead of market trends. At the same time the consumer electronics business generates cash because investment requirements are low compared to infrastructure businesses, which is why Toshiba will continue to operate in profitable parts of the consumer electronics business....

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China's agriculture based on small farms is undergoing a change as the government pushes automated farming and large farms in the face of limited imports from the U.S. China put tariffs on agricultural imports from the U.S. in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. China's Agriculture Ministry says it will build 254 "strong agricultural industrial towns" as models for the country. President Xi stated on a visit to northeastern province Heilongjiang, that "unilateralism and trade protectionism are rising, forcing us to take the road of self reliance." The yield per hectare in the U.S. for soybeans is about twice that in China. Mechanized farming is limited in China because it would eliminate many jobs in rural areas. As the state has ownership of land and farmers merely use land, farmers are less likely to take risks with large long term investments. It can be risky for farmers to rent their land use rights to others, which would lead to consolidation.  Now a separate "Made in 2025" plan makes upgrading farm machinery and equipment one of the 10 goals. China may lift ban on genetically modified seeds now that ChemChina has acquired Swiss seed company Syngenta. China plans to partner with Asian Development Bank to provide $6 billion of loans, grants and investment to fund a list of development projects in rural areas, to modernize agriculture. WSJ cites a project of consolidation into an 8200 acre farm in Shandong province that  has increased yields 43% by investing in new farm equipment and planting machines, pesticide spraying drones. Scaling up has made this possible.    ...

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The thinking is that a slight drop in the year to year increase in GDP from 11.4% to 10%, according to both IMF and Goldman Sachs group forecasts, isn't going to do much in reducing China's demand growth for oil. For one thing China's industry is very energy intensive and consumes a lot of energy to produce a give amount of output. Its estimated that it takes about 1% of increase in energy demand to produce 1% rise in GDP. It ranks as the largest consumer of coal and the second largest user of oil. It takes in about 8 million barrels a day of the 84 million barrels a day, that is 9.52%. Even as China's export sector slows down because of lower demand from the industrialized countries, the Chinese government can use its large cash reserves to build roads and bridges and ports and upgrade infrastructure to maintain employment levels. Major refiners margins have swung wildly from $30 in May 2007 from $10 in the last few years. Before the recent boom in refinery margins the margins average $5, and it looks like the boom in refinery building in Saudi Arabia, India and China and the US that resulted from shortage of refinery capacity, will bring margins back to their longterm average. A surge in oil prices that has outpaced the rise in prices of gasoline and refined products is shrinking margins and lowering profits and stock price of refiners like Tesoro and Valero. and upgrade its infrastructure ...

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How the energy business sale of gas turbines to provide electricity in the middle east is boosting GE's energy business worldwide, increasing sales to over $20 billion in 2007, at the last peak in 2002 sales reached $22.5 billion for GE's energy business. Couple of things to note. GE's revenue is growing at about 20% a year in the middle east. Its sales in the middle east now exceed China's with $8 billion in Middle East for 2007 vs. 6 billion in China. By 2010 sales from China India Brazil and Middle East will total $50 billion compared to 30 billion today. thst is an increase of 67% over 3 years. Power is a big chunk of this in addition there are aircraft engines and health care equipment. See the other article on middle east growth July 19, 2007 WSJ. About half of the population of 300 million in the middle east is under 20 years of age. Also note the last runup in GE's stock price was from its surging energy business in the 1990's.