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France's Baccalaureate exam goes back to the days of Napoleon. Students take 15 exams in their final year in high school. Since 1808 it has not changed much. French president Macron is changing the exam as part of reform of the education system. Changes include making 40% of the score coming from in class testing. The philosophical essay is retained. Students are tested on knowledge that helps them think quickly on their feet.

Teacher pay has not changed much in 15 years and teachers protested recently asking for resources not reforms. One of the problems is that more students pass the exam, 60% compared to 40% thirty years ago, and many flunk out in the first year of college. The value of passing the exam is not as before with fewer job opportunities. Changes are seen as needed because the Bac exam was treated as sacred and little was done to adapt it to the changing times. 

 

 

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Foreclosures are now accounting for 10% of homeless people. In the midwest this is upto 15%. Three years ago in 2007 this was close to zero.

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Sharply lower consumer spending is hurting Apple sales in China. Apple cut sales and issued a sales warning in January 2019. This follows Apple's sharp slowdown in India with its uncompetitive pricing.

Retail sales growth in China- which bounced back in previous downturns- dropped to the lowest level in 15 years in November 2018. Auto sales are down with the sharpest drop in 7 years- the first annual drop in sales since 1990. Fears of a housing bubble have led to restrictions on home purchases for speculation which have not been lifted. Income tax reduction has not increased spending. GDP growth for the fourth quarter dropped to 6.4%.

Further signs of a sharp pullback are seen in the drop in consumption tax revenue falling by 61% in October and 71% in November 2018. The consumption tax is placed on cars, gasoline and luxury goods, and is paid by the companies making the products.

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China's population drops and fertility rates drop for a decade now- the median age is 40 years for China compared to 30 for India. Those who think India can never catch up to China lose sight of these factors- a 10 year gap is huge provided India can take it and run. India is moving from a corruption prone, governance deficit, investment deficit, engineers deficit, technology access deficit country to a country that is able to score well in governance, capital, labor and technology eliminating deficits in each sector the way China did.. The younger age China enjoyed in 1990 of 25 years median age when it started industrialization is now being transferred to India in 2026. Why is this important? A younger population with abundant capital, abundant labor, abundant technology access is the ticket to industrialization on a massive scale. India today is on the cusp of massive changes. What happens now is that the computerization and software is also getting more advanced that will accelerate India's Vikshit Bharat effort. This is why Chancellor Merz joining Modi at the Kite festival and committing Germany to a partnership with India, with it the European Union, is so significant today, as it will deliver for both India and Germany, Europe. China births drop from about 10 million to about 8 million and birth rate drops from 6.77 to 5.63 births per thousand people. China population now drops to 1,405 from 1,408 million people. Deaths rose from 10.93 million to 11.31 million.   ...

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Krugman points out that the prevailing bias in the US distorts the facts about Europe's performance. Frankfurt, London and Paris he says are just as lively and modern as New York and Chicago. They are not poor and backward. When you factor out population growth in the USA, since 1980 per capita real GDP which is what affects living standards has grown in America at about the same rate as the 15 European Union countries: 1.95 percent in the USA vs. 1.83 percent for the EU. And for the 25-54 years working age group unemployment in the EU 15 countries in 2008 was 80% of adults (83% in France), which is about the same as in the USA. The French and Germans work fewer hours but output per hour is close to American levels.

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Leaders of Africa's development banks and the president of Kenya make this plea for adjustments on debt repayments and a moratorium on debt servicing before the annual conference of global finance at Marrakech, Morocco. The problems are: a 35% increase in debt repayments to $62 billion for Africa with increase in interest rates. The total debt of Africa now at $1.8 trillion. The neglect of education and health when countries such as Zambia and Ghana default on debt. The complexity of debt renegotiation with 40% of debt in private hands and 31% with China which is not part of Paris Club. It took 3 years for Zambia to negotiate its way out. And 23 nations in Africa are near default out of the 52 in the world facing this situation.

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Instead of killing the NAFTA trade agreement Trump and his advisors prefer renegotiating the treaty. Priorities for the Trump administration are reducing the U.S. deficit with Mexico of $61 billion. Trade with Mexico and Canada is worth $1.1 trillion and the complex supply chains works such that product components cross borders more than once to become finished products. Mexico promotes its auto and other industries as duty free access to the U.S. for foreign investment. Special tariffs would reduce the trade deficit with Mexico and firms that moved production to Mexico would pay additional taxes. A provision that allows Mexican and Canadian companies to challenge U.S. regulations would also be removed. Rep. Brad Sherman (Democrat) says he supports the renegotiation so that duties of 4% are imposed to reduce the deficit to $25 billion.

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This editorial in the NYT says Bill Clinton moved the Democratic Party to the centre in 1992. In 2016 about 25 years later, after the removal of the Glass Steagall Act led to the 2008 global financial crisis and a deep recession, after the trade relations with China led to loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs over two decades and the hollowing out of industry in the midwest, things have changed. The revolution led by Bernie Sanders, a shrinking middle class, smaller access to college education for the middle and working class, and wide disparities in income, are putting the Democratic Party closer to its roots and the days of FDR. The Democratic Party platform calls for a 21st century Glass Steagall Act to separate normal banking from investment banking, opposes the TPP to prevent any further export of jobs overseas, and goes for a $15 minimum wage. This was also evident at the opening day of the Democratic National Convention when Sanders told the gathering in Philadelphia that even though he was not the candidate, these are the planks of the platform that Hillary Clinton will be pushing for in her presidency. What the editorial does not point out is that the Republican economic platform also calls for reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act, opposes TPP and opposes any loss of American jobs to overseas locations. It differs on the minimum wage leaving it to the states, and it is likely to skew tax cuts towards the wealthy, but also possibly removing the lower income brackets from taxes as Britain has done under the Conservative Party. Both parties today are looking for support from the middle and working class and have directed their appeal to these two groups which are in upheaval. The election of Trudeau in Canada recently also followed this trend, after the hollowing out of Canadian industry in Ontario and Quebec in a similiar pattern as in the midwestern U.S.  ...

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Mistakes to avoid in retirement, says Statman, are that after a lifetime of frugal habits to save for retirement, when one gets there he or she will spend so much less that they cannot enjoy life fully. He suggests taking a payout of 3%-4% from retirement accounts and dividends combined. Another mistake is to think one has more time to manage retirement accounts, and he warns that this is a bad idea as one cannot beat the market, and it is important not to take risks in retirement. Other mistakes are to ignore how important healthy living is at this point.

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This editorial in the WSJ responds to Donald Trump's comments about the system being "corrupt" and "crooked" and saying there could be violence at the convention. It says the rules are transparent and long standing in Wyoming, Colorado and other states where Trump has not campaigned or sought support. It calls on the Republican National Committee not to be intimidated by Trump's statements, especially as it says the the Republican party should not nominate a candidate who has the highest negative perceptions rating of a shocking 65% with national voters in a general election. Trump never complained when he won 99 delegates in Florida with 45% of the vote and 50 delegates in South Carolina with 32% of the votes cast- securing the most delegates because of a winner take all or winner take most system. It says Trump has so far won only 37% of all votes cast and won about 45% of the delegates, a process that can be seen as disproportionately favoring Trump because of the rules. This is particularly true because Trump's core support has remained at about 35%, and the fragmentation of the remaining vote has hurt the other candidates. About 83% of eligible voters have not voted in the primaries, making the process less representative than it should be. ...

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Boeing machinists Union by 64% rejects a wage and benefits deal for 35% increase in wages over 4 years. This extends the strike at Boeing.

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Egypt plans to tackle the financial crisis after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine by increasing natural gas exports by one third. It has the LNG terminals to do this which are underutilized. The LNG could be exported to Asia or Europe at ten times the price buyers in Egypt pay for it. The way this additional natural gas is to be exported is to impose 15% cut in use of natural gas in Egypt similar to what the European Union has done with its 15% mandated reduction. This will then be diverted to LNG terminals. The max temperature for air conditioning is 25 degrees under the new plan and lights are dimmed or shut off after 11 pm in streets, shops and malls.  The war in Ukraine has doubled the price of wheat and other basic food necessities imported from Ukraine and Russia. This put a heavy burden on state finances in Egypt with subsidies on bread and other food for 70 million people out of 102 million people. Investment needs are also affected. Saudi Arabia has stepped in with help as no IMF program has been set. A 14% devaluation of the currency took place in 2022 and another devaluation of the currency is expected. ...

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Age old barns in the Alpine regions of Europe that were used to store rye and other grains for the winter are part of the heritage life and architecture of the region. BBC Travel takes one to the Zermatt region of the Swiss Alps. After the 60's and the emergence of skiing in the Alps these barns have fallen into disuse.

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Mr. Macron told television viewers of a national debate with Le Pen that "she wants to take France out of the European Union, she just doesn't say it." The debate showed the clear differences between Macron and Le Pen on the European Union, on Russia and the invasion of Ukraine, on Le Pen's ties with Russia that Macron noted  during the debate. Le Pen brought up the raising of the pension age to 65 which Macron says would be done very gradually over 10 years, and Macron responded by saying this was to be able to increase pension payments and increase investments in the economy.

A snap poll by polling firm Elabe showed that for viewers of the debate the candidate they found most convincing was Macron at 59% and Le Pen at 39%.

 

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The Japanese government is trying to work with universities and companies to speed up the vaccination drive. The government provides the Moderna vaccines and the companies and universities provide the facilities and the medical staff.

The Tokyo Olympics open shortly. This makes it critical to get the elderly population vaccinated. Government released data June 8 shows just 3% of elderly over 65 years are fully vaccinated or 1 million people, and only 8.4 million people or 24% have 1 dose. Since then the vaccination drive has stepped up and about 18 million of the elderly have been vaccinated with one dose or 51% of the elderly population, and about 17% have been vaccinated fully by June 26.

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About 40% of Americans are obese with BMI, body mass index of over 30. About 71% of Americans are overweight or obese with BMI over 25. This is a finding in a new report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This report does not mention a separate finding covered in the Guardian online newspaper showing less than 15% of Americans get the daily recommended intake of fruits and vegetables, crucial in preventing major diseases such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes. The cost to America for obesity related or weight related medical bills is estimated at $190 billion a year, in three years this would help renovate the aging U.S. infrastructure if people changed their habits and education was designed to help change the way Americans live. Even harder to understand is that only 2% of America's farmland grows fruits and vegetables, according to the Guardian report which says this would need to be 4% to meet the needs of the people in the U.S.. These are alarming facts and need more public awareness by this being getting widespread attention on the internet. ...

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The Romney campaign is trying to keep Obama's support among Hispanics and Latinos to 65-70%. Latino leaders say Romney's positions on immigration during the primaries, when he chose to go to the right of Governor Perry, have affected their perceptions and his more recent centrist positions are being discounted. Republicans are awakening to their weak position in the fastest growing demographic in the U.S. Positions on abortion, gay marraige and religion are affecting a portion of the Latino vote. One question is how enthusiastic is the voter turnout, especially because president Obama failed to take up immigration reform in his first term and gave it a lower priority.

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British budget cuts announced in Parliament by Britain's Finance Minister, George Osborne. About 83 billion pounds in cuts by 2015 were announced. But Joseph Stiglitz, writing in The Guardian, argued that the plan was a big gamble, as declining tax revenues with lower growth, would lead to smaller deficit reductions. The gamble is that the private sector will pick up, and make up for the reduction in public outlays. If this does not happen, this risks sending the economy into a tailspin. Osborne said that 490,000 jobs will be lost over the next 4 years, some from attrition. Payments to the long term unemployed will also be cut for those who fail to seek jobs, saving $11 billion a year. A new 12 month limit will be imposed on long term jobless benefits. Increase in the retirement age will start in 2020, from 65 to 66 years. At the same time free eye tests, prescription drugs and bus passes remain. Premier Cameron promised not to make cutbacks in health care in the period before the election. This was his way of helping the Conservatives make a comeback to power....

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Debate in Germany over whether there should be exception to the minimum wage agreement of 8.50 euros per hour. The head of the federal employment agency, Heinrich Alt, says a universal minimum wage would reduce incentives for young people to join vocational training. The new labor minister, Social Democrat Andrea Nahles, says "there will be no exceptions, notwithstanding all the escape fantasies." The Social Democrats insisted on the minimum wage to win support from rank and file working class members after losing support in its own base with the increase in the low wage sector in Germany. Unemployment in Germany is less than 5%, but this comes with an increase in lower wage workers as part of the reforms under the Social Democrat Schroeder administration when unemployment was close to 10%. Economists say the increase in wages would increase weak consumer spending in Germany and increase imports from other eurozone countries. In 2011 the share of the German population making less than the new minimum wage of 8.50 euros an hour, according to the German Institute for Economic Research, is- for former East Germany 27%, for former West Germany 15%, for ages under 24 years 44%, for ages 25 to 60 years 15%. This does not affect the manufacturing sector in East Germany as wages in the sector are above 8.50 euros. The other problem is that wages appear to be declining in Germany, with wages decreasing by 0.3% in October 2013, according to the Federal Statistical Office. ...

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Coal India, is a state run monopoly which is a huge stumbling block for India's economic development. India lags behind Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia in the percentage of the population having electricity. Production methods do not use modern technology similiar to mines in other countries, and the average age of the 333,000 employees is 45-50 years. An eight hour shift at some mines produces as much coal as a mine in the U.S. does in 5 minutes, because of the lack of modern technology. About 300 million Indians lack electricity. The Modi administration's focus is on improving efficiency, introducing competition, and bringing major technological changes to the coal industry. Piyush Goyal, India's Coal minister faces one of the biggest challenges in the Modi administration. His focus is on efficiency, and the Modi administration has set a target of 1 billion tons for 2020, a 15% increase in production each year for the next 5 years.

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Macron says about the ban of under 15's by social  media platforms-  the emotions of children and teenagers should not be "for sale or manipulated by American platforms and Chinese algorithms." The bad effects  on all adolescents of social media, especially on girls is seen in mental health issues for teenagers and the lack of focus for education in schools. It is a big price to pay for all countries to ruin the prospects in life of a new generation of children who are growing up in ways that no previous generation of children in the history of humanity was exposed to. This is no time for dangerous experiments with our children. It is an interesting comment on today that it is lobbyists (and donations) for platforms that are the problem. And that these lobbyists are from what is called Far Right, Right,  Left, Far Left, it makes no difference they all get paid for work, which shows that such labels have little meaning today- looking for common sense and what is right for (children's) health and education is the best approach not falling in line with Far Right, Right,  Far Left, Left, or Moderate or some such label or a Culture War label that is essentially meaningless when it comes to common sense. Good common sense, that much is sufficient. Many other important issues we face require the same approach. ...

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Germany's EVG transport workers union reached an agreement with Deutsche Bahn on wage increases. EVG asked for 650 euros a month. After months of 1 day strikes both sides agreed to arbitration in June. The new agreement gives workers wage increases of 410 euros ($443) a month in 2 stages over 25 months, 200 euros in December and 210 euros in August 2024. And a tax free one off payment of 2850 euros in October. Negotiations of DB with the train drivers union GDL lie ahead with GDL asking for increase of 550 euros a month and one time payment of 3000 euros. For the first time as in the US with president Biden the German government of SDP and Greens of Scholz supports agreements that provide workers with wages adequate to meet the cost of living and dignity of living.

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At a glance see on a world map with colors which countries have accomplished the transition to renewable so as not to get caught in the quagmire of the Middle East for oil supplies- most of Europe has done very well, and the laggards- Asia from China and India that are making an effort to Japan which has a poor dismal record. Brazil Uruguay 90% Denmark 80% Canada 66% Germany Spain and Finland 50% UK 46% Italy 42%  France 27%- share of renewables in electricity production (2023). This means much of the world is not dependent on volatile energy supplies from the Middle East. It is only in China, India, Japan, South Korea that dependence is high on Middle East. And in China and India this is the time to focus again on renewables. Most baffling is Japan with only 23% and it is the country that has so much of its supplies flowing through the Persian Gulf volatile oil lane- when Europe has moved on and accomplished the task of avoiding volatile Gulf region.

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Brandenburg Berlin metropolitan region of which Brandenburg and city of Berlin are separate states remains a strong economic region. This is where Germany has evolved under ruler Frederick since the end of the Thirty Years War in 1648. Dietmar Woidke of ruling Social Democrats is expected to win a fourth term in office with the SPD expecting 25% of the vote in the important state of Brandenburg next to Berlin. Even though the AfD right wing party is expected to do well approaching 25% of the vote, there are other factors at work. Sara Wagenknecht has rebranded the Die Linke Left party with immigration policy that is similar to policies now being accepted in Denmark, France, Netherlands and other EU countries that see the need to restrict immigration, drawing 15% support. A good example being Mette Frederiksen, Social Democrats in Denmark. A coalition with the Christian Democrats CDU with about 15% expected vote and Greens with less than 5% is likely for about 45% of the vote. Other factors that show a stable Brandenburg are the economy with the new regional airport hub of Berlin Brandenburg airport, a new Tesla factory, rich natural resources a third of the state of 2.6 million people being filled with forests and lakes, and a stable population after the reunification in 1990 without rural depopulation as in other parts of East Germany, only 12% people of immigrant background including Wagenknecht.   ...

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Migrant workers in China are not allowed to bring their children with them when they move to work in factories located in urban areas. This is the large price being paid for the rapid industrialization in China for 2 decades 1990-2010 by the 61 million children of migrant workers. Lixin Fan's documentary "Last Train Home" documents the life of children of migrant workers separated from their parents for long periods of time. Analysis from the All China Women's Federation shows 75% of the 61 million children left behind by migrant workers have parental visits once a year mostly during the national Spring holiday. 82% of these children want their parents to come back home and 42% say they have no one to talk to when they feel bad. A large proportion of the children are missing parental attention at the most sensitive age when they most need it- 38% left behind are ages 1-5, 32% ages 6-11.