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Britain faces two years of growth at near zero with a no-deal Brexit -even though it could avoid a recession by adding a stimulus package of 44 billion pounds and welfare spending amounting to 2% of GDP. The extra spending would blow the deficit reduction plans.

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This report in FR24 says the UK reopening by June 21 is at risk as the new delta variant is leading to a rise in covid cases. Covid is growing at 3% a day, with the R ratio at between 1.0 and 1.2 for the second week in a row, says the UK Health Ministry. With new more contagious variants what looks cautiously optimistic in one week can look very different in a 2-3 week period after that especially as complacency creeps in and essential protocols are neglected.

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DJT says time is on their side to negotiators so that the blockade on Iran will remain till a deal is made that cover nuclear materials. US blockade of Iran in force till a deal is reached as final deal will require going beyond Memorandum to nuclear materials -this is the situation on May 24 2026. Mediators Pakistan and Turkey have only got as far as getting a Memorandum- a written document of intentions not actions taken on nuclear materials- while all the time the IRGC Iran says nuclear is not included. What explains this? There are now two factions inside Iran that are the IRGC and the elected president of Iran, one not as committed to nuclear weapons as the IRGC at the cost to the people of Iran and the nation's economic future. This war has proved that while oil producing countries are causing great damage to their economies and productive potential- this includes Russia, Iran and Saudis-the world is moving on its goal of reduced dependence on oil followed by fossil free future in 2 stages. By the first stage if modernization does not take place in the Middle East it will lose forever the opportunity to modernize infrastructure and fall behind other countries including China, India, Brazil and other nations that have made the shift.  ...

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Northwestern University has its federal funding  frozen. $790 million federal funds are frozen by the US government for toleration of anti-semitism on campus in 2024 and 2025. Northwestern cut a deal with protesters putting out anti-semitic slogans following an encampment, that was followed by other universities, says this WSJ report. This is not in the tradition of US universities and the Nation founded with the Christian faith that includes the Catholic, Protestant and Jewish faiths as one indivisible faith. Northwestern and others fail when new drug research leads to discoveries funded by federal dollars. Yet the universities get their portion of the return from the pharmaceutical companies, which then charge the average public exorbitant prices, making the universities complicit in the huge burdens placed on the American people. Similar to a Catholic Church  working with the nobles in feudal times- placing ever higher burdens on ordinary working people. Another issue is that universities are investing in new buildings, raising their prices, and operating as if they are unaccountable to the people, as young American men are being pushed away by high prices and foreign students are taking their places.   ...

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A joint statement at the G-20 meetings in South Africa on November 20 signed by the leaders of Canada, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Germany and Norway, and the European Union expresses concern about the 28 Point Plan put forward by US and Russian negotiators. It also says that it includes important elements that will be essential for aj ust and lasting peace. US president has set Nov 27 as a date for Ukraine to come to an agreement. 

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A big win for the US and a win-win for the European Union in the sense that it brings stability to the trade relationship. For the US it brings a level playing field in world trade that had suffered fo far too long from unfair advantages taken by Japan, Canada, European Union and other nations, in addition to the serious distortions of the world trade system with China's state version of capitalism financing an export model. So the first step was to straighten out the situation with partners and allies the US has supported in the past 75 years. US European Union Trade Agreement is reached July 27, 2025, at meeting between Von Der Leyen of Eu and DJT of the US in Scotland. It includes $750 billion EU purchases over 3 years of US oil and gas, LNG, nuclear fuel, semiconductors, etc and $650 billion in investments in US, including military purchases. It puts a 15% tariff on all products from the EU entering the US, replaces the tariff of about 5% under Biden. On Pharmaceuticals it is what the US president decides says Leyen, though for now it is included.  The EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefovic says- “I think that what was most important for us was to make sure we would have this predictability and we would have stability for our businesses." ...

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The UK corporate tax rate is set to go down to 17% in 2020. To discourage the one fifth of British companies planning to move headquarters overseas the Theresa May government plans to accelerate the lowering of the corporate tax rate. The Trump administration is considering reducing the corporate tax rate down to 15%. Ireland has a tax rate of 12.5%. The move by the Trump administration would reduce the incentive for inversion by corporations trying to reduce taxes by moving overseas.

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South Korea prepares for new elections with about a third or quarter of the people strongly supporting Yoon whose impeachment was upheld by the Constitutional Court April 4, 2025. Adjoining BBC Special Report shows how Yoon went astray. The gist also shows how South Korean democracy is only since 1988 compared to India's 1948, and how India's democratic traditions were formed under the Birtish with representation in parliament, first British then Indian, and in state assemblies in the 1930's, under Nehru in 1950's.

Today with the US imposing 25% tariffs on South Korea there is no government to make a response or strategy to deal with this.

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Omicron cases are up in an almost vertical line on a graph with cases doubling every 2-3 days in the UK, similar to the pattern in South Africa during the beginning of the spread in South Africa. Since then early data in South Africa show the trend in the province of Gauteng, center of the omicron outbreak in South Africa in the Johannesburg area, has reached its peak. On Dec. 16 it recorded 27% of national infections compared to 70% the week before. Head of the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in South Africa, Michael Groome, says "we had areally dramatic increase in Gauteng, which has now leveled off."  Hospital admissions in South Africa show a different pattern than earlier hospital admission rates in previous waves, with only 1.7% of cases being hospitalized in this Omicron wave compared to 19% for the Delta variant wave at a similar point in the wave, says Health Minister Joe Phaahla. In UK as of Dec. 14, this WSJ report cites health authorites saying 73% of cases in London are omicron variant, doubling every 1-2 days, with omicron making up 41% of all cases in England. In the US the Centers for Disease Control show Omicron variant making up 2.9% of all cases in US as of Dec. 11, with highest concentration in New York, New Jersey of 13.1%. Proportion of positive tests went up from 3.3% to 5% in New York City. A convention in New York City, Anime convention at Javits Center, November 23, 2021, shown in a recent NYT report, could potentially have acted as a super spreader event in New York according to NYT though not confirmed, similar to football stadiums events in Italy in March 2020. Dense atmosphere and large crowds increase the risk of a super spreader event happening, say experts. ...

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Queen Elizabeth's voice is heard on the microphone before a meeting of the Welsh parliament: "We only know about people who are not coming to the Glasgow Climate Change Summit, its very irritating that they say but they don't do." China had promised to peak coal use by 2030, and help achieve reducing global warming under Paris summit goals. This looks like a remote possibility today as China faces blackouts and factory closings from reducing coal use.

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The British economy is battered by the impact of the mini-budget announced on September 28 by Truss and Kwarteng. The pound drops to $1.03 and British bond yields increase to 4.05%. Prime minister Truss and finance minister Kwarteng failed to wait for the assessment of the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) before announcing the mini-budget so that investor perceptions were secured, say experts.

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It is not clear why the British furlough scheme already cost about 35 million pounds when the German furlough scheme for 12 months cost is 9 million pounds. The British scheme set the amount at 80% of earnings up to 2500 pounds per month, higher than the German furlough scheme which started at 60% and went up to 70-80% if 50% of working hours were lost.  As a result of the cost difference of the two schemes Germany is able to extend its scheme to 24 months while the British scheme ends in October having cost more in a short period 35 million pounds than the 2 year German furlough scheme's cost of 18 million pounds. This means German workers are better protected than British workers. Schemes for furlough in Anglo-Saxon countries Britain and the U.S. have traditionally lagged behind ones in other countries in Europe with resulting job losses and hardships for workers. Could the schemes in Britain and the U.S. be better designed to get more done at similar cost as in Germany with joint worker, company and government cooperation? France is extending its furlough scheme to 24 months. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research says extending the British furlough scheme till July 2021 would cost 10 billion pounds and could pay for itself. A estimated loss of 2 million jobs in Britain from the ending of the furlough scheme in October 2020 maybe be too high a price to pay. ...

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At this time following the Brexit vote $1 trades for 82 pence. This is a sharp drop in the value of the British pound. With it tech companies Dell, Microsoft, HP, and Apple are raising their prices sharply. Apple prices are up about 25% as a result of Brexit and fall in value of sterling. The price of Apple apps now reflects the falling value of the pound. Not only Britain is affected. In India the app which cost $0.99 now costs 80 rupees in India from 60 rupees previously, a 33% increase. In Turkey the increase is 30%. It all goes to show that as the Bank of England's GOvernor Carney has pointed out that Brexit comes at a price, a price that the British public were not alerted on at the time of the vote with the temporary crises of refugees influx and internal squabbles inside Labor and Tories deciding the vote.

 

 

 

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Weekly earnings in the UK climbed from 4.9% from August to October of 2024 over the prior period, according to Office of National Statistics.