LyrArc Article Gist
After all the media talk about tariffs inflation- inflation is at 2.4% in May 2025. Tariffs was part of the toolbox of strategies under Lighthizer and Jamieson on getting fair world trade, and not like Congressman Hawley in the 1920's who understood little about the workings of the US economy. This fact the official media such as the WSJ and NYT, Wash Post, BBC need to get it right about the Hawley Tariffs. Hawley was born in rural Oregon in 1864 went to country schools, and was president of Willamette University in Salem, when it's population was 4258. As House Ways and Means Committee chairman he wrote the failed tariffs bill Hoover signed in 1930. DJT's US Trade Representative Lighthizer in 2016 led the successful negotiations with Japan under Reagan, Scott Bessent who leads negotiations on tariffs with China with USTR Jamieson, has a deep understanding and grasp of today's financial markets. Tariffs is one of the tools in the US toolbox to get Japan, China, South Korea to even the playing field for US companies and bring back manufacturing to the US. Without it China would not budge from its unfair advantage and would not negotiate in fairness. This is proven in the way Japan in the 1980s and China today are responding to the US position preparing their economies for not relying on sudden surges in exports putting whole industries and workers in America and Europe out of work and out of jobs. DJT says- "No we are not going to accept that," the EU is catching on and adopting a similar position, China knows that.  The media is irresponsible in presenting tariffs in a negative way, irresponsible to American workers the 10 million put out of work since 2000, and to American families and the Nation.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
For the first time the U.S. focuses on the huge trade deficit with China in a serious way. The trade negotiating team led by Robert Lighthizer has set forth its negotiating terms.  1. China must reduce its trade deficit with the U.S. by $100 billion in the first 12 months. In the next 12 months it must reduce its deficit by another $100 billion. In 2 years the trade deficit the U.S. has with China must come down by $200 billion. The issue is no longer just the tariffs on steel, it is about the core issue of balance in  trade. 2. The U.S. says subsidies to state industries in the "Made in China 2025" program must stop. Here the focus is on gaining an unfair technological advantage with a combination of U.S. technology imports and subsidies to state advanced manufacturing industries to erode over time the U.S. technological lead.  3.  China is expected to cut its tariffs by about two thirds on imported products so that the tariffs match that of the U.S. This is the first serious negotiation the U.S. has conducted with China on the core issue of the trade surplus which is growing with a stronger dollar not declining. The surplus approaches $1 billion each day for about $365 billion a year, unsustainable from any perspective. The vital issue of the erosion of the U.S. technological advantage under the Made in China 2025 has turned this issue into one in which the U.S. is unlikely to back down. Especially now that Mr. Lighthizer is leading the  negotiations and has the confidence of the president of the U.S. Lighthizer is a veteran of negotiations from an earlier period -under the Reagan administration in a similar situation with another national competitor- then it was the Japanese. A relentless negotiator as the U.S. seeks to reverse a trade imbalance of stupendous proportions neglected by previous administrations.           ...

LyrArc Article Gist
An August survey by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, shows 40% of the country's manufacturers saying they would shift production and R&D facilities overseas if the yen remains at 85 to the dollar. It has dropped below that. Nissan will make 71% of its cars overseas in 2010, compared to 66% in 2009. Murata Manufacturing plans to double its foreign output to 30% by March 2013. By buying Dutch printer maker Oce NV in March, Canon Inc., saw its overseas output jump to 48% for the first half of 2010. Toyota is on track to produce 57% of its output overseas in 2010 , compared to 48% in 1995. The popular Prius will now be built at a plant in Bangkok, Thailand. Sony did 20% of its television manufacturing in Japan in 2010, it is aiming to do 50% in 2011. As a result Sony showed a profit for the April-June quarter, after 6 straight years of losses. Its also important to note that when inflation is taken into account the yen has not strengthened the way it appears, which reduces domestic pressures to dampen the yen's rise. Tohru Sasaki, head of foreign-exchange research at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, says that in inflation-adjusted terms, the yen is 30% below the rate it reached in April 1995. U.S. consumer prices have risen by 69% since 1990, in Japan the prices rose only 8.5% during the same period. In inflation adjusted terms the April 1995 exchange rate of 80 yen to the dollar would be 56 yen to the dollar today. Japan's exporters can also benefit from the fact that a large part of Japanese trade is denominated in yen- according to Japan's Ministry of Finance 48% of exports to Asia were paid for in yen in 2009. Like China and Germany, Japan remains highly dependent on exports for growth- which provide two thirds of its growth. The yen's strength increases the outflow of production facilities. In July 2010, 10.3 millon workers were employed in manufacturing in Japan, down from 12 million in 2002. Japan's unemployment rate was 5.6% in 2009....

LyrArc Article Gist
India's Russian oil imports Indian OMC's (oil marketing companies) say Russian discount for oil was about $8.50 per barrel in FY24, and dropped to $3-5 in 2025 with at present in August 2025 it being $1. CLSA/Citic Securities research report uses an average of $4 per barrel to get the $2.5 billion gain for India per year in 2025. Note that Russian oil is of inferior quality and the CIF landing cost used by Indian companies is much higher because of long supply routes insurance costs compared to Saudi oil. India could shift to buying from Saudis and UAE in 2026, and reports suggest India is already making this shift as Jamnagar and other refineries in India shift to non Russian sources. India's gains from Russian oil imports estimated at $2.5 billion lower than the $10-25 billion figures says a CLSA/Citic Securities research report. In 2025 Indian oil imports are at present 36% or 1.8 million barrels a day from Russia of 5.4 mbd total oil imports. Saudis provide 14%, Iraq 20%, UAE 9%, USA 4%. One alternative for India would be to shift much of it's oil imports to the Saudis, UAE and US to shift to the situation before the Ukraine war and Russian discounts for it's large population.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia invades Ukraine on multiple fronts, across Belarus, across its western border with Ukraine, on the pre dawn hours of February 24, 2022. Russian foreign minister Lavrov says "tense and detailed discussions" with US and NATO are still taking place. In talks with the US, president Putin of Russia had demanded that Ukraine commit to not joining NATO. The US insisted that this was upto Ukraine and that the territorial integrity of Ukraine had to be respected. Interventions by Macron of France and other leaders failed to bring the two sides closer. The US and Europe with a reluctant Germany looked at sanctions as a deterrent. This proved to be wrong. Mr. Putin has a passionate view of Ukraine and Kviv's historical role in the formation of the Russian state, evident in his televised address only 48 hours before the actual invasion. Ukraine has shifted between Poland and the Baltic states, Germany on one side and Russia on the other in its thousand year old history. The shift away from Bolsheviks and Communists under the Soviet Union after 1990 changed the relationship of Ukraine with its neighbors once again as Ukraine became closer to Poland and the Baltics, and Germany. Germany remains reluctant to revert to the relationship with Russia that led to 2 World Wars. During the leadership of Willy Brandt and successive German SPD leaders, as well as with Konrad Adenauer and CDU leaders, the goal was to build a good relationship with Russia. Merkel of the CDU went as far as accepting dependence on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies, after shifted out of nuclear energy and supporting a new Nordstream undersea pipeline for gas supplies.  The early reaction on DW.com and German television was one of shock as no one really expected that this would lead to a full scale invasion. Scholz of the SPD the new chancellor in 2022 was not active in forging anew consensus allowing NATO's Stoltenberg who is a former Norwegian prime minister 2005-2013 to frame the response of Europe. Norway's role in European security was marginal for most of the twentieth century. Other events had detracted from bringing active German and American participation in coming up with a framework of dialogue to address concerns of both sides and still build a common ground for peace- Afghanistan, the pandemic in its third year, China's deteriorating one sided trade relationship with America that hurt American workers and manufacturing. As a result China and Germany were essentially absent in building the framework for peace. Afghanistan hasty withdrawal made it harder for president Biden to come up with new approaches to build a common framework. President Macron made some faltering efforts on the fringes even as president Putin focused on the US response and its intentions with NATO on European soil, and declared that it was directly US Russia negotiations that needed to work. With this the whole framework of relations since the presidency of Reagan and the relations with Russia and China come to a close. And a new framework needs to be constructed that draws in India already or soon to be the most populous nation in the world, in an effort to build an enduring new framework. The voices of Eastern Europe need to be heard, yet balanced with the voices from India, China, Germany, Russia, and other countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa that are affected by world events. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ editorial says Donald Trump's first foreign policy speech is full of contradictions. Mr. Trump says foreign policy should be "unpredictable" yet this also means says the WSJ, that the country should trust his instincts, and everybody else a loser- "I'm the only one-believe me, I know them all- I'm the only one who knows how to fix it." It says the speech gets an "Incomplete" at Trump University. It criticizes Obama, but in failing to stand up for peace through strength that marked the post war peace since 1945, WSJ says that more than people realize Mr. Trump is a continuation of Mr. Obama's policies of withdrawing from global engagement that has ensured that peace. Trade wars with China, Mexico and Japan could lead to a world recession. Though much needs to be done to ensure trade is fair to U.S. workers and business, Trump has no clearly stated path to do this, instead relying on brinksmanship that could end up in trade wars.

LyrArc Article Gist
This article in The Telegraph shows the debate in the House of Commons on Syria and comments by various MP's. It also reveals the impasse on Syria with Boris Johnson of the Conservative Party using it to score points against Jeremy Corbyn of Labor Party by calling for demonstrations by peace groups at Russian embassies, and Corbyn's response to this saying all parties embassies including the U.S. should be included. By October 2016 with about 100,000 children and 275,000 civilians trapped inside the Aleppo region in northern Syria, and Russian bombings of Aleppo, the situation is dire. With U.S. president Obama's inaction on Syria, the refugee crisis in Europe from Syrian refugees exceeding 2 million in the Middle East, the situation in Syria is at the point where lacking an effective option to setup a no fly zone at this late stage the political parties in Britain and in the U.S. trade charges against each other. German chancellor Merkel and foreign minister Steinmier visit Ethiopia and Nigeria to stem the flow of refugees from economic crisis at the source with aid and support, as Germany works on its own efforts. France's Hollande tells Putin a visit to France would have only Syria as topic for discussions and calls for Syria to be brought up as war crimes. Even the Telegraph's title is misleading as the article covers the debate in the House on Commons on Syria, but the title appeals to Telegraph readers critical of Corbyn when the debate is about Syria and what action to take about the bombings.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China's new prime minister Li Keqiang makes his first foreign trip with a trade delegation for talks with Indian representatives and business leaders, showing the importance he places on India. India offers China's companies access to large opportunties in infrastructure development, and China can benefit from India in the area of information technology and pharmaceuticals. Trade is envisioned as expanding from $70 billion in 2012 to $100 billion by 2015, and expanding rapidly as the two economies grow. Economic contacts also would provide an anchor for future relations as China faces difficulties in its relations with Japan, and S. E. Asian countries, and a U.S. wary of China's capabilities. This was pointed out in the joint statement. Li Keqiang also emphasized this in an editorial page article in India's daily newspaper, the Hindu, saying India and China have "to work hand in hand," to promote Asia as "an anchor for world peace." A peaceful India-China trade and economic relationship opens the way for investment and participation in development by China alongside Japan, Germany, France, UK and the U.S. in India, as the next major source for global economic growth. This also serves to defuse Asian tensions as both economies grow, and increased contacts between cities in India and China with the twining of cities program launched in the meetings. India can use China's capabilities in infrastructure development, the two countries share the need for information sharing on lowcost solutions in healthcare, in managing urbanization, and solutions for clean water in rural areas, and use of IT solutions in development, where much remains to be accomplished through cooperation. Some of these themes are the focus of Li Keqiang in his efforts for urbanization in China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Claudia Sheinbaum's father was a biology professor at UNAM, her mother a chemical engineer. She studied physics at UNAM (Universidad Autonomo de Mexico) and did her dissertation for doctoral work comparing energy use of the US and Mexico at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory in Berkeley, California. She returned to the faculty of engineering at UNAM in 1995. In 2000 she was appointed energy minister in the Mexico City government by the city's Mayor Lopez Obrador.  From 2018 to 2023 she was Mayor of Mexico City and a close associate of Lopez Obrador who supported her for president in 2024. Mexico limits presidents to one six year term. This period was overshadowed by the migration crisis with the US, building of the Border Wall by Trump, the negotiation of the new trade agreement with the US and Canada, the pandemic and its impact on the poorer classes in Mexico. Obrador attacked corruption in Mexico that had become entrenched under previous parties to bring good governance. Under Obrador Mexico brought millions out of poverty. Sheinbaum's sweeping election win shows that Obrador is one of the most popular presidents in the world. Mexico has an opportunity to bring tens of millions more into the mainstream economy under Sheinbaum. As a neighbor of the US Mexico stands to benefit from a diversifying supply chain for the US that includes Mexico and India that will boost Mexico's manufacturing, create jobs and increase economic growth. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Manish Sabharwal writes in the Indian Express that India missed it economic tryst with destiny and economic freedom for its citizens in 1947 and the decades after that. Today with AtmanNirbhar Bharat, he says,  the country is finally making its economic tryst with destiny. It is about self-reliance, yet it is also about opening up to new supply chains set up by allies U.S., France and Japan, South Korea, opening up to trade, investment and technology flows in new and exciting ways. The prime minister's message called for a quantum leap in technology. India was already moving up in GDP terms and set to surpass both Japan and Germany to become the largest after the U.S. and China in GDP. But there was something missing in it for the people. Here he sets out what the huge investment of 10% of GDP and the possible sequel investment to this would mean for people of India, from farmers to workers in different sectors of the economy, including the informal economy. India has fallen behind in per capita GDP and this is now the focus of the people and the government, federal government and the states, to build an economy that provides the best opportunities and growth for all its people. True Gandhian Swa-raj in the best sense of the term.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Iran has collected 60% enriched uranium for 2 years by 2023, enough for 2 nuclear weapons, says this report in the WSJ. Israeli premier Netanyahu says this would invite a strike if weapons grade uranium is converted into a weapon. In this situation after Iran provided drones to Russia, president Biden has renewed efforts to reduce the level of escalation in the relations with Iran, opening up talks in New York and through Oman. Iran wants money that is held in other countries for oil and gas deliveries after US economic sanctions on Iran, to be released in exchange for limits on nuclear work and prisoner release. The Biden administration has approved 2.5 billion euros in payments by Iraq. Another $7 billion could be released from South Korea if diplomatic talks lead to Iran taking steps the US seeks from Iran. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The euro trades at $1.1942 to the U.S. dollar on Jan. 5, 2015. The drop in the euro would help the eurozone economy by increasing exports, and by acting against deflationary trends. Worries about Greece's upcoming election weighed on the euro.

LyrArc Article Gist
 China exports to the US $438 billion vs $143 billion the US sends to China - the US deficit with China 2024 equals $295 billion. This is the fact that the media continues to ignore. Behind this is the gutting of the industrial base of the US shipped offshore to China since 2000 by American companies. 5 million jobs lost and tens of thousands of factories destroying the backbone of the economy, America's middle class.  Much of the US exports are oil and gas which can be shipped to Europe, India and other places. The soyabeans and grain from America's farmers is the other part of exports of $13 billion. The US can find other markets for the farm products including India under a trade agreement, and farmers can be supported with agricultural subsidies. It only makes sense to rebuild America's industrial base and pull back from an unfair trade arrangement that can only be the result of serious neglect of their responsibilities of previous administrations before DJT in 2016. The piecemeal efforts 2016-2024 have not worked to rebuild America's middle class,  recover jobs and factories, as a result a new bolder approach is needed in 2025 to rewrite the rules for world trade for an even playing field where everyone is treated with fairness. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Sharp swings in attitudes have left America divided in terms of education. A comparable situation exists also in the UK as areas with more education access have separated from areas with less access to higher education. As the WSJ analysis points out at one time social cohesion prevailed in the postwar years till 1970 with educational attainment playing a small part leaving social cohesion intact. Even in the period 1970-1990 when there was a shift for college educated women to prefer Democratic Party and white men without a college degree to prefer Republicans this was not a significant gap. The Democratic Party appealed to less educated union voters in manufacturing industries as well as it did with college educated men and women. This gradually fractured during the Clinton and Obama administrations as the Democratic Party  moved closer to the higher educated and drawing more support from new tech industries than manufacturing. Nowhere is this more evident  than in the way college educated women have shifted to the Democratic Party and white men without a college degree have moved to the Republican Party. Swings of different types are normal in elections and politics. But swings purely based on education are rare in American politics and not healthy for the democratic system of government. As the analysis from WSJ/NBC News shows college educated women favor Democratic Party by 33 percent margin. And the swing is even deeper for white men without a college educated degree who favor Republican by a 42% margin. This is the situation before the 2018 U.S. Congressional elections. The combined group of college educated women and white men without a college degree make up 40% of the U.S. voting public. This makes each group unreachable for the other party, a situation unimaginable for many of America's leaders if they would be living today- from presidents Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson. White voters make up 70% of the electorate, and a situation where they would be unreachable for Democrats would be unthinkable or unimaginable for Truman, John Kennedy. And Eisenhower would also find it unimaginable that he would have to writeoff college educated women in his campaign.  By returning the Labour Party to its roots Britain is combatting this tendency for fracturing of social cohesion. In the way the UK's Blair administration moved away from Labour party's roots in manufacturing and the trade unions, the Democratic administrations under Clinton and Obama  moved away from manufacturing industries and the trade unions.   Most of the postwar leaders of the stature of Eisenhower and Kennedy would have seen such a situation as a significant failure in political leadership. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Wolfgang Ischinger, former German ambassador to the U.S. 2001-2006 and president of the Munich Security Conference, says that one thing that would make a difference in the current state of German and European relations with the U.S. after NSA spying on chancellor Merkel, is for president Obama to show contrition. The continuing dynamics are important, as is evident in the deterioration in relations in 2003 following the American intervention in Iraq when not enough was done, says Ischinger. His view is that the proposals to limit diplomatic personnel of the U.S. in European countries, or putting on hold the Trans-Atlantic trade talks, are not good ideas as they do not help restore trust. Building on a report by the European parliament in 2001 on protections against intelligence operations would be a good start.

LyrArc Article Gist
A Smithsonian Museum exhibit on the slave trade and 36,000 voyages, 12 million people on the ships to Brazil and the US. It tries to tell the story in a way that will be constructive to bring people together, and also tells stories of free black men and whites who did not enslave or opposed it.

It tells a transnational story instead of a regional one- how it affected the whole world. The exhibits will travel to the Iziko Museums in Cape Town, South Africa and to the Museum of Black Civilizations in Dakar, Senegal.

Of the 12 million it is less well known that 500,000 made it to the US, 5 million made it to Brazil.

Individual stories of a woman Diarra in Mali walking hundreds of miles to a free colony in Senagal where slavery was abolished. Of a man Tahro in the Kongo kingdom brought in 1858 to the US in the Carolinas even though slave trade was banned by the US Congress in 1808.

LyrArc Article Gist
The US Fed under Jerome Powell stress tests of 31 banks for 2024 shows the banks can withstand a rise in unemployment to 10% and 36% drop in house prices. This is relevant now that the new administration of DJT makes another effort to correct the huge trade imbalance with China, Mexico and Canada, which itself is destabilizing in the long run and needs to be addressed. The first term of DJT failed to correct the imbalance with new tariffs kept in place by the Biden administration. This is not just one's imagination, reports suggest China has poured $230 billion of subsidies into its EV industry since 2003 mandate given by premier Jen Biao to dominate that industry. And now has capacity of 20 million car production a year, twice the domestic demand in gasoline cars, wanting to send the surplus production to the US and Europe. This isn't the 1930's type of tariffs, it is simply to get a fair even playing field for trade, where no one side is massively subsidizing and dumping which is one of the principles of WTO free trade that is being broken by China and Mexico. Specifically the anti dumping clause in Article 6 of the 1994 GATT agreement on free world trading mechanism to ensure free and fair trade. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US Trade Representative Lighthizer in the Report on China's Entry into WTO sees this as a mistake in the policy of president Clinton. Clinton has said that was a mistake. David Sacks raised this issue in a podcast with Larry Summers, an economist who was deputy to Robert Rubin and Deputy Treasury Secretary, then Treasury Secretary succeeding Rubin in 1999. Clinton on the advice of Rubin and Summers set up the framework for China to join the World Trade Organization without the safeguards and the setup that would prevent it using state capitalism and subisidies to build its own economy with exports, to ally with American corporations to support the outshoring of almost the entire industrial base of the US. Shocking as it sounds this has happened, had happened by 2016, when Donald Trump with the advice of USTR Lighthizer took the first steps to reverse this with Tariff policy, which was supported by president Biden, and continues in its new phase under DJT in 2025. Rubin and Summers had supported deregulation of financial markets and removal of the Glass Steagall Act by 1999. This was to led to the financial crisis of 2009 that was to be one of three body blows to the American working and middle class. The others China entering WTO without safeguards that led to deindustrializing US and loss of its manufacturing base, loss of 5 million jobs, tens of thousands of factories. And the third was the pandemic. “ . . .it seems clear that the United States erred in supporting China’s entry into the WTO on terms that have proven to be ineffective in securing China’s embrace of an open, market-oriented trade regime” 2017 USTR Report to Congress on China’s WTO ...

LyrArc Article Gist
It is shocking to see the virtual lack of cultural or other people to people contacts between the two largest regions in Asia, and most populous regions in the world, India and China. There appears to be a near total lack of understanding on both sides at the university and government level of the importance of setting up these contacts, so that misperceptions do not exist on either side and better relations can be built using such contacts. Rana Mitter, a expert on Modern China at Oxford University, says in an interview in the Times of India, that India and the 1962 conflict occupy less attention in the Chinese mind because other issues such as the relations with the U.S., ASEAN and Japan, take up more space. Mitter says India should emphasize its pluralism, democracy, and peaceful engagement in its external relations.  Mitter puts less emphasis on the 50 day standoff between India and China on the border at Doklam, Bhutan region, when he responds to a question about the risks of a conflict. He points to a bigger problem that affects relations between the two countries- the lack of exchanges that bring Chinese students, faculty, and government personnel to India, the difficulty of obtaining visas. This lack of cultural exchanges between the two countries is a major issue, considering also that trade and business exchanges are taking place and growing during this lack of cultural exchanges.  As a result it appears that business and economic relations guide the China-India relationship today, with people in China's key ministries and government, in universities and local government, lacking an understanding of India. Mitter makes this clear that cultural exchanges need to be established. Even a search for China- India dialogue brings up little information with a location in Beijing but none in India. It is mind boggling that the relations between the two most populous regions in the world are based on a huge lack of contacts and exchanges that would improve perceptions and understanding.  Britain's effort offers a model to follow as Tsinghua University in Beijing, as part of China's C9, has set up cultural exchanges with British universities in the ongoing cultural exchanges between Britain and China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, China and the European Union sought to fill the leadership on this issue. Yet the reality now looks to be different. China decreased coal consumption between 2014-2016. Now China is ramping up coal generation as it needs to provide stimulus to a slowing economy as trade relations with the U.S. worsening.  In 2017 the trend reversed with state backed loans to help economic growth and surge in provincial permits.  China is now moving forward with plans to add coal fired power equal to almost the total U.S. capacity, according to Coalswarm, which tracks power plants worldwide for coal use. This would push coal fired production to above the cap of 1,100 gigawatts China has set and its current cap. Its current production is already about half of the world's total coal fired generation and quadruple that of the U.S. In 2017 China made up one fourth of total CO2 productions.  Canada is missing its emissions targets and is not likely to meet 2020 targets say experts. In the EU members reliant on coal power energy oppose EU parliament efforts to end subsidies to the most polluting plants by 2025, seeking delay of one decade. At the climate change talks in Katowice, Poland, these changes are facing opposition. As a sign of how the situation is changing since the 2015 Paris Accords, the protests in France by yellow vest protestors started in opposition to a carbon tax intended to meet France's climate change targets. That tax increase is being withdrawn by president Macron. Families struggling financially had a different perception of the increase in the fuel tax and even young people who support meeting emissions reduction joined the protests, as reported in the New York Times and The Times. This tells a lot about how the issue of climate change has changed in the public perception in three years. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Paul Ryan, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, wins the Republican primary in his house seat of Janesville, Wisconsin, defeating his challenger Nehlen, by 84% to 16%. The Republican nominee Donald Trump earlier had refused to endorse Ryan, and only reluctantly endorsed Ryan following the vice presidential nominee Mike Spence's endorsement of Ryan. Senator Susan Collins, senior Republican senator from Maine, joined other leading Republicans saying she would not support Trump. Paul Ryan has split with Trump on trade, immigration, Mexico, and other issues. He has insisted on decency and fairness in politics, and has won his seat in a working class town that had a closed GM plant in 2008 after Ryan voted to support rescue of the auto industry and worked hard to keep it open. Even though some of his policies have not directly helped working class families, he has won increasing support from his district as the economy recovered with unemployment down to 4.4% in Janesville, according to BLS for May 2016. Much of that support since 1998 has been based on Ryan's decency, faith and family. He made it a condition that he would go back on weekends to Wisconsin to stay in touch with people, when he accepted the position of Speaker of the House, and he listens to local concerns. Ryan said about the national discourse- "It's simple to prey on people's fears. That stuff sells, but it doesn't stick. It doesn't last. Most of all, it doesn't work." His job in today's deteriorated national discourse is as vital as ever, both for Wisconsin as representing the best in the national spirit, and for the country.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Fearing retaliation by Chinese regulators, US executives are silent on trade issues. As a result the issue of wind energy subsidies to Chinese manufacturers was brought up not by GE, a manufacturer of wind turbines, but by the United Steelworkers Union in the US. The US filed a WTO complaint in this matter based on the US Steelworkers petition. GE has stayed silent in this matter in deference to Chinese regulators. Only Solar World, a German company, has stepped forward to strongly endorse the investigation. Solar World has manufacturing sites in Oregon and China, but no plants in China.

LyrArc Article Gist
The rise of Japan was a major challenge for president Reagan in the 1980's in the way president Trump is confronting the rise of China. The Reagan administration obtained the concessions it needed from Japan. The negotiator for the U.S. side during the Reagan years - Robert Lighthizer. Lighthizer is using his experience in winning concessions from Japan in his role as top trade negotiator with China.  As the WSJ points out Japan ceased to be a threat to the U.S. faster than anyone thought possible. 

But there is one problem even if this happens the warning is that the imbalances with Japan simply transferred over time to China. The warning is for America's tendency to spend money it does not have, and for how long.

LyrArc Article Gist
In this essay in Der Spiegel, Charles Hawley says that the Trump movement has become a movement of patriotic downtrodden whites, with a whole range of interests-of extreme right talk show hosts, Tea Party politicians, white power supremacists, those left out by globalization in the working class especially in the midwestern states. The danger he says is that this movement of which Trump has become a part, rejects the narrative on which America is based of the Constitution and the Founding Fathers establishing a country based on principles of "the inalienable rights of man," that have evolved through the years to include black people, women, and minorities.  To put this in perspective, president Obama writing for The Economist magazine in October 2016, puts this movement in a different context- that of the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798, Know Nothing Movement of the 1800's, the anti-Asian sentiment in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, periods when anti-immigrant or anti-foreign sentiment gained prominence. Obama's view is that it is not fundamentally economic. In this he is right in that some of the forces on the far right do not stem from globalization. Yet he would be missing a great deal if he did not address the economic problems for the middle and working class that have given such views the support of a broad segment of the population, especially in some midwestern and older industrial states compared to say the economy of California or New York. Obama is aware of the problems in his essay as he points to the problems of workers trying to get a decent wage, of job losses through globalization, and the aggravation of these problems by the financial crisis of 2008 when some of the potential physicists and engineers as he calls them went into the financial sector to create faulty mortgages. Yet he goes back to the free trade and global networks of supply chains as having reduced global poverty, without showing a keen awareness of how it has through a combination of events and decades of policy indifference to manufacturing communities in the U.S.- as documented by experts and shown in Lyrarc, with David Autor and Gordon Hansen in the WSJ, 2016- 08-16. A Gallup Study, WSJ, 2016-05-16, supports Obama's assertion by showing that many of Trump supporters are actually self-employed and not in economic distress. Yet the movement would not have taken its proportions without the merging of different groups particularly largely disadvantaged working class voters, and fortunately Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, have a better sense of this than the president. It is by their efforts that income and wealth disparities can be tackled in a way that restores the social fusion of all parts of society- in Hillary Clinton's emphatic words in the final debate by "growing the middle," growing the middle class. This is the task of the next decade, or possibly two decades. (For Gallup study see WSJ, How Economic Anxieties Explain Trump's Appeal- And Where They Fall Short, Nick Timiraos, 08-16-2016. And for Autor, Hanson, see Tallying the Toll of U.S.-China Trade, Justin Lahart, 08-27-2011)   ...