LyrArc Article Gist
February 2024 talks between Biden and Speaker Mike Johnson that revived the effort to pass the bill for $61.5 billion aid to Ukraine. This included the efforts of Mitch McConnell to persuade Mike Johnson on the vital necessity of aid to Ukraine. See the adjoining articles on Mitch McConnell and his critical role on what might be similar to what Harry Truman did to assist Greece and Turkey in 1948 to fend off a communist takeover supported by Soviet bloc. Aid was passed through US Congress in 1948 weeks before Greece's democracy was likely to collapse.

LyrArc Article Gist
US president Biden gives a rousing and vigorous speech drawing a picture of his vision for the country and contrasting that with the chaos, prejudice and lack of action on key issues facing America of his predecessor. On defending democracy, on Ukraine and Europe, on the economy and jobs, on preschool and education, on pharmaceutical cost reduction, on fair taxes and cutting the deficit while investing in manufacturing and new jobs, on all these issues he drew a sharp contrast with the predecessor and former president. He also drew on the tradition of America for democracy and called on America to move forward in line with its values and decency and diversity, not go backwards in the way of his predecessor. He said it was not about being young or old as he was considered too young when he was the youngest senator of the US at 29 years of age, and now people talk of me being old. It was of not being old in the way that the oldest emotions are of hate and resentment reminding people of his predecessor's sharp language about other people and cultures. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This France24 report looks at the question of whether the policies of four term German chancellor Angela Merkel emboldened Russia under president Putin to launch the invasion of Ukraine. FR24's interview with the vice president of the German Marshall Fund and head of its Berlin office, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, shows there are many reasons why Merkel's policies were serious errors that ignored caution from past experience and from other western leaders in the US and Eastern Europe. Kleine-Brockhoff says that "Europe did not go wrong, Germany and France did. France and Germany tend to speak for the rest of Europe. Bit these mis-assessments were made in Paris and Berlin, not elsewhere. Eastern Europe didn't go wrong. Northern Europe did'nt go wrong."  Kleine-Brockhoff says the war in Ukraine calls for an urgent re-assessment of the German and French policy towards Russia. "Not only is the post Cold-War order crumbling before our eyes, so are the strategies employed by Germany and France." Under particular scrutiny comes Merkel's policy, and policy supported by Steinmeier of the SPD, that took German dependence on Russian energy supplies from 36% during the annexation of Crimea to 55% in March 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine. Germany's conservative Die Welt has this to say- "What Germany and Europe have experienced over the last days is nothing short of the reversal of the Merkel policies of guaranteeing peace and freedom through treaties with despots," describing Merkel's policies as "an error." About France Kleine-Brockhoff says there were lofty ambitions under Sarkozy and Macron of European strategic autonomy, which did not correspond to reality, to fantasies of European armies when there was nothing but NATO. It is not dialogue with Putin and Russia that was a problem, says Laure Delcour, international relations expert at the Sorbonne Nouvelle in Paris. Some form of dialogue is necessary she says, but the dialogue has to have clear objectives. We must not confuse cause with consequence, she says. We know  that NATO enlargement had a big impact on Russia's perceptions, but the real problem is how Russia responded to enlargement. "In this case the problem is the consequence."  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Overseas travel from Russia is cut down significantly as US and European Union restrict Russian planes from flying over their airspace. Many Russian planes in Europe were grounded after the invasion of Ukraine. The UAE and Central Asia, Turkey are frequent destinations for Russian planes following the invasion and the response of the US and the EU. Dubai is the single most frequent destination say the NYT.

During the pandemic China reduced overseas travel significantly. Fewer Americans and Europeans are traveling to China with the lockdowns and zero covid policies. The result is that people living in China and Russia have significantly less contact in 2022 with the outside world compared to 2019 the year before the pandemic. The flow of information is also affected with the state controlling more of the information that people see in Russia and China.

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT and Putin talk for 1 hour on February 12, 2025, on the phone and agree to hold talks to end the Ukraine War. He also talks to Zelensky of Ukraine following the talk with Putin. In this video DJT says he feels that Putin wants to end the war, Zelensky wants to end the war, and he wants to end the war. The talks will be continued on the phone, at a meeting in Saudi Arabia, and by visits of the two leaders to the US and to Russia. DJT says he agrees with Defense Secretary Hegseth that the war settlement will not include Ukraine joining as a member of NATO. The Munich Security Conference is Feb 14-16, 2025.

LyrArc Article Gist
What was established in Alaska meeting in Anchorage was the necessary rapport between two world powers. During the Bush, Obama, Biden administrations Russia was treated as a secondary economic power on Wall Street, with the focus shifted to China, which damaged relations with Russia which has always seen itself as a Northern European economic power. Some of the roots of the conflict go back to this period. In a nuclear world the size and historical relation in Northern Europe of Russia cannot be ignored purely on economic grounds about the size of it's economy in the way China could not be ignored in the 60's and 70's when it's economy was not what it is today. History and culture are not in Wall Street or Silicon Valley's understanding or grasp of international relations which go beyond economic and business considerations. On DJT and the first term, the survival of the US president- “When I came out of the plane and I said, ‘Good afternoon, dear neighbor. Good to see you in good health and to see you alive. I think that’s very neighborly and I think that’s some kind words that say to each other.” On Ukraine- “We have always considered and continue to consider the Ukrainian people our brothers and sisters. We share the same roots, and everything that is happening is a tragedy and a source of pain for us. Our country is interested in putting an end to this. But at the same time, we are convinced that for the settlement to be long-term, all the causes of the crisis must be eliminated." On DJT's assertion that if he was president there would have been no Ukraine war- Putin says "I can confirm that." “Today, we hear President Trump say that if he had been president, there would have been no war. I think that would have been the case. I can confirm that. Because, overall, President Trump and I had established a very good working relationship based on trust.”     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
"Wars have been lost because of logistics," says the director of logistics and engineering in US Central Command. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges says the Russian logistics system is exhausted- that it was never setup in a way that it could support a long conflict outside of Russia. It has smaller fleets of trucks and is dependent on rail lines in the south near Kherson and Crimea that have been hit. These trucks now have to travel longer distances to supply the troops. Damaged bridges also lead to difficult supply conditions. Ukraine seeks to use this has a way to push Russia out of Kherson and other region in and near Crimea along the Black Sea.

LyrArc Article Gist
Much of India's relations with Britain as a colonial power, and the US as the first real democracy (defined in a new way without colonial interests) after Britain in the modern world, were set in the period when Gandhi mentored by Gokhale and Tilak in 1900 set the independence struggle of the 1930's and 1940's. Modi merely restored the Gandhian spirit with a development focus and honest administration. This enormous contribution of Gandhi revered by all leaders including Modi is a benevolent one recognizing the important and one might say virtuous role played by the US under Wilson and Roosevelt to colonized nations such as China and India as can be seen in the personal letter to FDR written in the 1940's by Gandhi. There are two defining relations of the US, the first related to its founding as a British colony and a war of independence fought with the help of the French. And the other related to Asia, to Japan, China, and India as they modernized in 1900-2000. Of this the relationship with the most ancient of ancient civilizations in India is the dominant US relationship in 2025, because it unlocks the mysteries of westernization without the religious ethos of Buddhism in an imperialist Japan and now expanding Communist China. This religious ethos of China, Japan and Vietnam lies in Indian soil and in the ethos of the Indian people, and where Gandhi drew his inspiration. From this ethos comes the idea that India as a true friend of America and a Europe (that includes Russia) cannot ignore the devastation of Ukraine and inadvertently find itself a participant through its purchase of Russian oil at $119 billion a year (even when China under a expanding Communist government purchases Russian oil at $136 billion a year). The cost of the war is about $213 billion in a Russian wartime economy which also hurts the Russian economy and the cost of living through inflation for the Russian people. India will seek to do some soul searching and find the right path Gandhi would hold on to for Britain, America, and rest of Europe including the Russian people. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Merkel tells Hungarian news portal Partizan that the Baltic States and Poland made efforts to reduce efforts for dialogue with Russia, and that this dialogue and meetings were also made difficult during the Covid pandemic. Merkel did not address other issues of EU and US relations with Russia over the decade when Russia was not integrated into European structures as a Northern European power. Britain and Netherlands also supported Poland and the Baltic States in efforts to keep NATO as a force and counterweight to Russia in Europe, something Merkel did not cover. Merkel appears to have been selective in covering only this issue in EU-Russian relations and not the larger issues that Merkel never addressed of ending the Cold War structure of NATO that Britain, Netherlands and Poland had favored. The result is that without German or US leadership the Cold War structure of NATO favored by Britain, Netherlands and Poland has been expanded to include Sweden and  Finland, and without a clear resolution of the Ukraine issue created a new situation. This situation is the return of the Cold War in another form with Russia and China, losing the opportunities presented to both sides to use trade and improvements in standards of living to create a durable peace for economic development and addressing the problems that have led to deindustrialization of US and European Union countries. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The market for oil field equipment is tight with 90% utilization, making it harder for larger oil producers to drill more oil wells for shale oil in the US. Large US shale oil producers reduced production when oil prices plunged and did not come back leaving smaller oil producers to increase production as prices went back up in 2021. Oil prices are now expected to reach $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014.  Saudis and Russia are not expected to increase production say experts. The possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and shortage of energy supplies is also a factor. Oil demand in the US and Europe has rebounded with milder covid-19 from Omicron variant and fewer lockdowns. Automobile use is also up in the US with November showing 12% increase in miles driven over the prior year, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Low inventories and resilient demand, and low spare capacity will keep prices surging to $100 from today's price of Brent crude oil at $89 in January 2022.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the Economist looks at China's relationship with Russia. It says the Ukraine conflict and western sanctions have resulted in Russia moving closer to China. Yet the two countries have competing interests in central Asia, and different relations with India and Vietnam, in the Asian region. Russia is also wary of China copying designs of Sukhoi aircraft in sales to China of advanced military technology. The major oil and gas deal signed in 2014 provides Russia with a new outlet for oil and gas with the cooling of the relationship with Europe. Yet Russia has strong ties built with Germany over the entire post war period, and differences have emerged in U.S.- German relations. Germany's relationship with Russia- cooled by sanctions and German wariness over Russian intervention in Ukraine and Russian wariness over NATO close to its borders- spans 7 decades and is likely to remain strong in the long term. This comes from the shared sense of awareness of the terrible conflicts of an earlier period, just as it has for French-German relations, and from the strong efforts made by Germany to preserve the relationship and peace in Europe. Chinese president Xi's visit to Moscow on May 9, for celebrations of victory over Nazi Germany, will be followed by a visit May 10 by Chancellor Merkel of Germany. A factor in German-Russian relations is the close trade links, cultural exchanges, and history going back to the GDR where Chancellor Merkel is from, built up over many years, that are likely to set the long term future of relations. China's dominant partner relationship in the China- Russia relations does not bode well for the future of relations, compared to the equal partner relations with its European neighbor, Germany. In this different light Ukraine is a temporary pause, in German-Russian relations and peace in Europe, a situation which is in China's long term interest as it focusses on its economy and the next phase of development for a modernized economy. Especially as China continues to build on its own vital trade relations with Germany and the European Union, the latest example being Germany, other EU nations, and India, joining the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Finnish president Niinisto provides a new understanding of Mr. Putin and the thinking that led to the invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Niinisto has an advantage having spoken with Mr. Putin countless times says this report in WSJ, and spoke again to Mr. Putin on May 14 to tell him that Finland was planning to join NATO. Putin simply responded that Russia does not pose a threat and "you made a mistake." He says it was not the Finnish way to not call Putin and tell him directly, and that not doing so would be like sneaking away around the corner. Mr. Niinisto says WSJ, has a rare insight into the thinking that led to the behavior of Mr. Putin in launching the war. Here are some insights from this report by Adam O'Neal of WSJ. On the situation in Ukraine Niinisto says " I would be a lot more worried about Ukrainians than about how Russians feel." Mr. Putin's willingness to see Ukraine's industrial centers, its infrastructure and cities destroyed, turning them into moon craters in the east compares with the relative ease of life in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities, cushioned by Russian oil and gas exports and financial reserves. As a student of Finland's long and violent history with Russia Mr. Niinisto has some unique insights into Russian thinking. He tells WSJ's Adam O'Neal  that if a Russian is angry, yes, be careful, but if he's calm, be even more careful. The Russian invasion of Finland led to loss of 200,000 lives in 1939-40, and another 250,000 Russian lives in fighting between 1941-1944. Finland has 300,000 men or women in military reserves and men between 18 years and 60 years are called up for military service with the Finnish Constitution requiring every citizen to contribute to national defense. Recently Finland ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets from the US. What led to the invasion of Ukraine by Mr. Putin? Niinisto says that "somehow Mr. Putin has a feeling that Russia was betrayed in the 90's by the West. Over time this thinking continued feeding the negativity says Niinisto and led to the thinking that Russia could be betrayed once more.  Another aspect of Mr. Putin which was covered during the last decade of relations with Ukraine in Lyrarc, was his perception that Ukraine under various leaders before Zelensky was basically led by corrupt leaders including one president he supported but lost power in the last decade. Mr. Putin saw protests in Kviv and Lviv that ousted a president he supported recently as orchestrated from outside. This led to thinking that Ukrainian nationalism did not exist and he believed that Kviv would not be defended and would fall easily within a week or weeks. As his nationalist perceptions and that of a small group that included his partner in office Mr. Medvedev became stronger in the last ten years Mr. Putin made the decision to take the option for invasion in the thinking that the response of the US and Germany would not be to support Ukraine with arms and other aid. The CDU and SPD was perceived as weak in Germany and Scholz not seen as able to cut down oil and gas imports to the EU. Biden was seen as not willing to stop Russia by taking on a difficult conflict because of China allying itself with Russia, considering China's interconnections with the American economy. The timing was seen as good considering that this level of dependence on oil and gas imports of Europe on Russia would never be the case after planned shifts to renewable energy. The Russian economy was cushioned by its $620 billion in reserves and by the world's need for energy even as the shift to renewable was taking place. This window my have induced Mr. Putin to take what appeared to be a rational decision that ignored the common feelings of humanity of risking the destruction of a brotherly people that spoke Russian, prayed in Orthodox churches, and where Russia as a state started in the year 1000. Cambridge historian Brendan Simms in his new book "Europe : The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the present," has shown all European powers susceptible of reasoning and calculation of this type in their wars since 1453 in the struggle for supremacy in Europe up to the present- the Portuguese, the Spanish, the Dutch, the British, the French, the Germans, the Russians, the Danes, the Swedes. This also led to British and French empires in Asia and Africa with subjugation of Asian and African people. The Second World War had created the perception that somehow this had changed after the loss of millions of lives- that was the perception of Merkel a pastor's daughter who had grown up in the former communist state of GDR in East Germany, and of SPD leader Steinmeier who felt strongly about the loss of lives from the Nazi invasion. Merkel and Steinmeier built the relationship of Germany with Russia that has collapsed under Germany's new leader Scholz and Habeck-Baerbock of the Greens party. Merkel and Steinmeier also built the trade relationship with China that also faces collapse with China's support of Russia under Mr. Jinping, and the unexpected shifts in Chinese leadership and policies from that pursued by premier Deng and his successors in 1990-2010 of interconnected economic links with US and EU. Mr. Scholz, the new chancellor of Germany has Brendan Simms book on Europe on his reading list for 2022 as he ponders over the lessons of 2022 and the pandemic. Mr. Biden with long experience in the Senate of the US has a memory and understanding of what happened since World War II, how America got to this point, and what it will have to do to bring back the American spirit to the Free World that America has led for most of the last two hundred years. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia has 600 billion dollars in reserves and with oil prices above $100, with the Ukraine conflict lifting oil prices for Russian oil exports, there is little that the US and Europe have done to prepare for this situation. The Merkel years were essentially wasted in building a trade based relationship on cheap Russian gas supplies, and the wasted resources under Bush and Obama in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan only distracted the US from the major issues relating to China and Europe that it now faces. 

The need is for a new overall structure to be built- for social structure supporting all aspects of infrastructure, and stronger supply chains with local manufacturing. And international structures that include India and other nations of Asia and Latin America, Africa, that would be a framework for the future- a broader framework for peaceful relations.

 

LyrArc Article Gist
BRICS is becoming an obsolete concept as Brazil, India and South Africa are essentially looking for ways in which they can increase opportunities for growth. It was a concept started by a Goldman Sachs investment banker Mr. O'Neill at a different time in 2010. The world has gone through the 2009 financial crisis, the pandemic, and the supply chain crisis with overconcentration of EU and US supply chain in China. These events are leading to a shift under the Biden administration to bring India  into the G7 into a new G8 that includes India. Only Russia, China and South Africa remain from the original BRICS. Russia because of the war in Ukraine now depends on Chinese support and trade. Brazil will gradually shift back to its position as part of the US alliance in Latin America with Mexico, Argentina and Chile. India with its plans for rapid growth to build the modern third largest economy by 2040 seeks supply chain integration with the US and EU in the position that China holds today.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A study and analysis in the One Earth journal for climate change action shows oil companies owe about $209 billion annually to pay for damage caused from climate change. The leading companies accounting for about 10% of global emissions are Gazprom and Saudi Aramco. These companies have benefited greatly from the oil price surge. The US and European oil majors who also have profited greatly from the oil price surge come next. Further distorting the effects of wars, financial crises since 2010, the war in Ukraine creates price surges from which oil companies benefit while the vast majority of people in the world are affected by a cost of living crisis made worse by higher energy prices. This is what is important to keep in mind as the US under president Biden prepares to play a leadership role in correcting these unneeded and bad distortions on how it affects the lives of workers and families in the US and Europe, as well as in Asia, Latin America, Africa. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DW.com looks at what it means for first Finland, and then Sweden joining NATO. For Finland the invasion of Ukraine where people speak Russian and have close cultural ties comes as a reminder of past history. Under the treaties that ended the war with Napoleon in 1815 after the Congress of Vienna, Finland was given to Russia and Norway wrested from Denmark was given to Sweden. Jens Stoltenberg now head of NATO is a former prime minister of Norway. Russia invaded Finland in 1940, and Germany invaded Norway during that war. As a result there are historical reasons why 62% of Finns support joining NATO.  What this means for NATO- This means NATO's border with Russia will double from 1300 to 2600 kilometres. Finland would be different alone compared to being part of the NATO alliance. For NATO this means 280,000 Finns in its army if mobilized under Finland's compulsory military service would be added to defending the border. Finland already is training with US equipment and training since 2015 and is in a joint defense plan with NATO. Sweden's situation is quite different. It has benefitted from neutrality and never been occupied by any power in the 500 years of European wars for balance of power in the region. In the last 200 years Sweden has acted as a neutral state and stayed out of 2 world wars and other conflicts. For Sweden to join NATO it has to change this historical neutrality and has to be convinced that the invasion of Ukraine and the immense destruction in Ukraine with over 4 million refugees mostly women and children is an event that has changed everything. If Sweden were to join NATO not much could be expected for ground forces as Sweden has a small army. Sweden also has no land border with Russia. Sweden is on the Baltic Sea which is also a border for Russia. Sweden does bring 100 modern fighter aircraft and 8 modern submarines that would secure the Baltic Sea.  If one or both countries were to join NATO this would happen by June and both countries would join NATO immediately after 30 NATO member countries approve this.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
President Trump's focus in the State of the Union message in 2020 in the U.S. Congress was on what he had done for U.S. prestige and perception- "In three short years, we have shattered the mentality of American decline and we have rejected the downsizing of America's destiny. We have totally rejected the downsizing." "We are moving forward at a pace that was unimaginable just a short time ago, and we are never going back." The theme of the speech- "The Great American Comeback." No longer were other nations be allowed to take advantage of America, American interests would come first, and this also meant blue collar working families and middle class. Trade deals with Mexico and Canada, trade deal with China, reversing of the trade deficit, bringing back about 12,000 of the 60,000 thousand factories lost over two administrations Democratic and Republican of the last 16 years with many more factories in the pipeline, increasing jobs and incomes in an unprecedented way, were all the focus of the speech. The president basically sidestepped the impeachment for Ukraine policy and implementation, and focussed on the optimism from reversing American decline in trade, jobs, and manufacturing under past Republican and Democratic administrations.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Much of inflation's rise in the US has been transitory after all, says Greg Ip in the WSJ, yet credit Jay Powell at the Fed for his resolute fight against inflation. Gasoline that was over $5.00 a gallon in June when inflation was at 9.1% following Russia's Ukraine war is now $3.27 according to AAA, and this is an important reason why inflation is at 6.5% in December 2023. Demand for autos after pandemic and lockdowns coupled with supply chain problems caused auto prices and used car prices to rise sharply. This is now reversing with price declines. Ultra low interest rates caused a jump in home prices- this is reversing with Jay Powell and the Fed increasing interest rates sharply.

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany's views on DJT Putin meeting in Alaska- proceeding to next step of peace talks with European efforts to ensure a peace that holds. A failure by Ukrainian leaders to build a consensus for the foreign affairs of their country bordered by language and cultural ties to the east but wanting to be open to the west, its unique position after 1990 similar to how Austria navigated German language ties to Germany after 1945 but was outside NATO and carried on with an independent foreign affairs friendly with all sides. The Bush, Obama and Merkel administrations did not pay attention to this and made serious errors, leading to further wrong turns by Ukrainian leaders and Russian leaders for prolonged wars. This led to destabilization in the Middle East, in Latin America, and in Europe and the US around migrant flows, refugees, and local wars, with Russia, US and Europe local regimes acting as adversaries that had not happened in this way in the 1960's -1990 period. This is the mess that DJT and Merz are now having to untangle with the help of countries that suffered huge losses in the war Russia and Ukraine who now may have realized what went wrong and offer their cooperation to end the war. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The fight for electing a new Speaker that led to 5 days of voting could lead to month of turmoil in the US House of Representatives. Kevin McCarthy made concessions that could lead to more fractiousness among Republicans says this report in the WSJ. A single House Republican can challenge the Speaker under one of the concessions. Other concessions would make it harder to pass legislation. The WSJ Editorial Board says some Republicans who agree more with Democrats than positions taken by the 20 Republican holdouts in voting for Speaker, such as spending on infrastructure and support for Ukraine may actually join Democrats in future voting.  This brings in a new period in which party affiliations will be only one of the factors deciding how members vote, other factors being where they stand in the US support for Eastern Europe against Russian threats, and on issues such as spending on fixing broken American infrastructure .

LyrArc Article Gist
Senator Rubio, Republican nominee for Secretary of State, is given good points by the Wash. Post for helping negotiate a 2013 bipartisan deal on immigration that passed the Senate but could not pass in the US House of Representatives. And for his willingness to compromise.

On Ukraine and Eastern Europe after the invasion of Ukraine Rubio with Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Virginia) inserted an amendment into 2023 defense authorization bill that prevents any president from withdrawing from NATO unless two thirds of the Senate agrees.

LyrArc Article Gist
Natural gas prices are down by about half in the last month after warmer weather and higher inventories in Europe and the US. On January 6 2023 wholesale natural gas prices in Europe eased to 74 euros ($78) a megawatt hour, down from a high of 350 euros in late August. This is a significant development as it means blackouts, industrial closures, recession is less likely in Europe. It also helps bring inflation under control. Prices are back down to where they were before the Ukraine invasion. This is still seven times higher than prices in 2020 reports the WSJ. The lower the price the lower the bill for the German government. Across Europe 706 billion euros were allocated for support on natural gas price by governments since September 2021.

LyrArc Article Gist
About 1 million jobs in Germany depend on China. Scholz is derisking but not decoupling Germany's relations with China because of the close linking of the two economies under Merkel. About half of German business depend on China for some part of their supply chain or for parts. Yet it is clear that the relationship has changed after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the lessons learned from the shutdown of oil and gas supplies from Russia, the search for alternative supplies to get through the winter. Germany like the US is rebuilding its supply chain to correct the over concentration in China. The annual dialogue between the leaders of the two countries is also no longer the same as premier Li Qiang of China meets chancellor Scholz.

LyrArc Article Gist
The 2022 industrial trade fair in Hanover, Hanover Messe, is covered here in DW.com with 2500 exhibitors showing how they are responding to a changed world after the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support from China. Export oriented companies have to rethink their strategy says Thilo Brodtmann, the executive director of the German Engineering Federation, Supply chain disruptions and the pandemic have led to many German companies reexamining their reliance on Chinese suppliers. Human rights and democracy are now part of the reorienting of business in a new direction. The war in Ukraine is also having an impact. Reducing CO2 emissions is also a major part of the reexamination. Chancellor Scholz told the Hanover Fair at the opening ceremony -"We need to bring along with us emerging and developing countries, whose demographics and economic dynamics are turning them into new centers of power." Brodtmann says the solution is "to become independent and to have a completely different value chain." The head of the German Associaltion of Electrical and Electronics Industry Wolfgang Weber says "I'm quite sure that German companies are ready to invest in any of these countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa to diversify their supply chains." However such new markets are not very well represented at the Hanover Fair, so that policymakers and German business have a lot of work to do to open up new markets across the world in Asia, Latin America and Africa. India, Indonesia and Vietnam are considered to offer good prospects for diversifying Germany's supply chain and a lot of work needs to be done. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The G7 countries including the US, France and Germany  and the European Union now support setting a oil price cap of $60 per barrel for Russian oil. This price cap of $60 goes into effect December 5, 2022, and require western companies that do most of the shipping and distributing for Russian oil worldwide to comply. The US favored oil price cap of $65 set at what Russia earned historically on oil exports. Eastern European countries such as Poland wanted to set the price cap on Russian oil much lower at $30 what it costs Russia to produce oil so that it would crimp Russia's ability to wage war in Eastern Europe that has brought millions of refugees to Poland in 2022.  There were also other prices of between $65 and $70 that were proposed by the European Commission. The US wanted to give Russia some incentive to continue its oil exports which it had threatened to stop if the oil price cap was set -and avoid a situation in which oil prices that hit $120 a barrel early in 2022 would not jump to hit $140 a barrel.  Poland has called for a review every 2 months of the oil price cap so that it is close to the market cap. In November 2022 Russian oil is being sold at about $48 per barrel discounted from Brent crude at $86. The $12 difference between $48 and $60 is the US saying to Russia that it is working with moderation just as it had supported Ukraine with air defenses but acted with restraint to limit that to avoid provocative attacks on Russian soil. What does a cap on Russian oil price mean and how is it possible? Western shipping companies ship the oil out of Russia and distribute it around the world. This advantage of the G7 countries is what it intends to now use to bring an early end to the war in Ukraine by cutting into Russian oil generated funding for the war. Shipping an insurance companies that insure shipping based mostly in the west are now required to comply and not carry supplies bearing a price higher than $60.  ...