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The Sergei Magnitsky bill in the U.S. Congress which would impose visa and other restrictions on Russian officials involved in the imprisonment and death of Sergei Magnitsky.

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This report in the WSJ shows in an extraordinary detailed way going back 20 years how under each administration Bush, Obama, Trump in the US and Angela Merkel in Germany, Hollande and Macron in France, the serious differences in the world view and thinking between president Putin of Russia and western leaders were simply ignored or overlooked. Mr. Putin truly believed in Ukraine and Russia as one people, researched history on his own and wrote an essay that made him more convinced than ever about his views that separation of Ukraine from Russia was an artificial construct, more so in the last two years.  By integrating the German and European Union economies with Russia and China without coming to terms with the large separation in views of the world and ignoring Russian views because of its economic size as an economy the size of France, both Merkel and Obama's policies failed to grasp what was happening. This report shows in much detail each event since 2005 that led to increasing distrust by Putin of western leaders.  The integration of the economies of the west and the integration of supply chains with China and Russia continued even after serious concerns had developed during the Trump administration. US and European business was operating on a completely different path not taking this into account in any way. It was only in the Biden administration and after the election of Scholz in Germany in 2021 that the situation was becoming clear. On the other side Ukraine itself and its people had changed in ways that were not anticipated by people in Germany or Russia, much less the leaders in Germany or Russia. There was a genuine sense that Ukraine was a national identity leading to the Ukraine resistance and a prolonged conflict. Brendan Simms, Cambridge historian shows how Europe went through conflicts and wars in its history as each of the major European nations sought advantage from 1453 to the present in his book, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Small gains were made in these wars that dragged on bringing great suffering to ordinary people.These wars involved England, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia. ...

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 Lincoln's words in 1858 "political matters now bear a very mixed and incongruous aspect" as Douglas tried to be on the side of the free states in the North when he was actually with the South, can be used for what is happening now with DJT and Ukraine, as seen from Europe by European leaders.  Alain Frachon gives the French view in Le Monde. He cites the founder of the French Institute for International Relations Montbrial in his recent book that the problems started with the false hopes and chimeras about the fall of the Berlin Wall. It marked not just the fall of the Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe but also of the Russian Empire. And the fall of an Empire has repercussions that are being felt today. Franchon says the liberal order neglected to see in its naivette that peoples are driven not just by strategic and economic interests alone but by passions, that includes their sense of what they had lost in the Russian role in that past of Europe in history. ...

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Mr. Zelensky of Ukraine makes his first official visit to Warsaw, Poland in April 2023. He was welcomed in Poland with an outpouring of support. About 10 million Ukrainians have crossed into Poland since the war began in February 2022. Of this 1.5 million Ukrainians have settled in Ukraine, the rest have gone to neighboring countries or returned to Ukraine. Poland has also opened its market to Ukrainian grain causing unrest among farmers because of lower prices. Poland has a population of 38 million, Ukraine a population of 43 million. These two nations are now the countries that are in the frontlines of the war after Russia's invasion. Other countries that have seen Soviet invasion such as Finland in 1939, Czech Republic in 1968, are now part of the NATO alliance force that faces Russia across a long common border. The Finnish border with Russia stretches for 830 miles through vast forested regions. The US is building a vast warehouse complex in Warsaw that will store US and NATO tanks. As the war continues a year later the resolve of the US and of Ukraine and Poland remain undiminished to the Russian invasion. This is unlike the events of post 1945 when Europe as a whole had seen the effects of 5 years of war and America faced the Soviet expansion into war ravaged Eastern Germany, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Greece. In 2023 the economies of the US and European Union have survived the economic effects of the war and the US is embarking on a huge plan to rebuild its infrastructure and its manufacturing capacity. The US and European Union through NATO remain united to reject any nation changing borders with impunity by force- the issue they see in Ukraine and in Taiwan. On the issue of Taiwan the US, EU are joined by Japan, Australia, Philippines, Vietnam and India. The issue of impunity and allowing borders to be changed by force will remain a strong one for the US and EU, on which there may be little room for concessions because of the principle. In his History of Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present, Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown that no nation by itself or with its allies has been able to use its dominant position to exercize power with impunity without meeting formidable combined opposition of other countries  in Europe. Over 500 years of history France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, have in turn had to agree to give up claims after meeting a formidable opposition of other countries in Europe. This Russian invasion does not appear to be any different.  ...

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The US may just move on to other priorities if both Russia and Ukraine cannot come to terms on a ceasefire, says Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State. The crux of the problem from the beginning were eastern regions of Ukraine that are more Russian in culture than western Ukraine. On the Russian side it was a loss of respect from the capitalist states US, UK and Western Europe compared to its historical importance in Europe, as everything was measured in GDP terms. The last straw was NATO and Ukraine with its Russian connected history joining it. By drawing eastern Ukraine into its orbit Russia was responding to actions by US and the EU support for Kiev, ignoring Russian perspectives. On the Ukrainian side the issue came down to Ukraine being able to decide its own future. Because of corruption and mismanagement, poor governance what could have happened with a clean governance and efficient growth oriented leadership working with Russia and the EU never happened. The result was veering from a pro-Russian to a anti-Russian government following the Maidan protests in Kiev in 2013. Enter China by 2019 with support of US companies shifting almost the entire US industrial base to China. Putin was handed a rare opportunity to act with China's tacit support to push back the US and EU and their defense arm NATO. He decided to take it thinking this would end quickly with Ukraine capitulating. The loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russian youth in the land war led to Russia getting entrenched into this war. As has happened before Russia with it's greater population and resources has prevailed in Eastern Europe over centuries of warfare. This is the situation in 2025 when DJT seeks to end the war and bring peace to Ukraine. ...

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Key points in Putin annexation speech are shown in the Washington Post. Putin presented an anti-western view that went over European history of colonialism in Africa and Asia. It presented a Russian nationalist view oof European powers and the US as trying to diminish Russia throughout history, that refers more to the British than for the country that emerged from British colonies in America with the idea that "all men are created equal." This was similar to a speech made at the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine that stated some of the same points. Putin referred also to the use of total bombing on Dresden, Hamburg and Cologne, by the US and Britain, and the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the US in 1945, the US action in the Vietnam war. Putin's view- "I emphasize that one of the reasons for the centuries old Russophobia, the undisguised malice of these western elites toward Russia is precisely that we did not allow ourselves to be robbed during the period of colonial conquests. We forced the Europeans to trade for mutual benefit." About this version of history of European colonial powers - it is not entirely true, because as Cambridge historian Brendan Simms points out in his  book-  Europe- the Struggle for Supremacy  from 1453 to the Present,  Russia is itself throughout this period one of these European powers. Russia was also one of the powers present in China before the Boxer Rebellion in 1900, and in 1901 when the concessions were drawn from China in that period. Of the military force of 19,000 that entered Beijing in 1900 and crushed the Boxer rebellion of local Chinese calling for ouster of foreigners from China, Britannica.com shows that most of the them came from Russian and Japan, with lesser numbers from Britain, France, the US and Austria Hungary.  After suppressing the Boxers the foreign powers including Russia, Japan, Britain, France, Germany, Austria-Hungary and also the US asked for reparations and concessions on Chinese ports. Tsingtao went to Germany, The British and Russians getting concessions in Tianjin. Only America stated under president Woodrow Wilson that the reparations were excessive. Wilson converted American reparations into funding for Beijing's first modern university Tsinghua University, where  many of China's leaders were educated. During the period 1901 to 1945 the US opposed British colonialism in India and China. The US opposition with its Pacific fleet was strong enough to prevent further division of China among the colonial powers. In the 1940's the US under Franklin Roosevelt and his representative in China General Jospeh Stilwell carried out the campaign against the Japanese invasion of China so that the national integrity of China could be preserved. Stilwell called for reforms of the corrupt Chiang Kai Shek Koumintang government which rejected Stilwell's advice. Leading to its gradual collapse to the Communists under Mao-tse-tung, as the popular support shifted. It is now known what exchanges took place between Franklin Roosevelt and British governments including Churchill and Clement Attlee, and it can be said that the US under FDR was always putting pressure on the British Empire to free India from colonial rule. In 1942 there is the letter from Gandhi at Wardha to Roosevelt asking for help just before the Quit India movement, and Roosevelt's response is clear in the way he told Churchill by 1943 that America would never go along with Britain's unfair and impoverishing rule of India after winning the war. Roosevelt did not need Churchill's "growling" response, he had already put the British as a junior and much diminished partner. American help was crucial in convincing the British to quit India, which is also why it happened so quickly after 1945.  During the Soviet occupation of Eastern Europe after defeating Germany in 1945, much of Eastern Europe came under Soviet and Russian domination. Poland was partitioned between Germany then called  Prussia, Austria and Russia, as colonial powers in 1772, followed by further partitions. The roots of the Ukraine crisis in some ways involve Poland and Polish history, as Lviv is only 70 kilometres from Poland. As the view on the Ukrainian side reflects this colonial history of Russia and of Germany in western parts of Ukraine. America under Abraham Lincoln fought a great war of Emancipation to live up to the document of the Declaration of Independence of 1776 that "all men are created equal." The United States of America did not look to colonial possessions for its wealth because of the abundant land in a new continent and the early developments of the Industrial Revolution. Of rail, steamship, of mechanized agriculture and industrial production, in the period after 1850 that made America unrivaled in its industrial strength right upto the 1950's, and  which continues to the present day.  The industrial development of of Japan and South Korea, then of China, and now in India would not be possible without the  hand extended out by America to nations in Asia,  a benevolent hand in creating a tide that lifts all boats. ...

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This report in the BBC on the nuclear threat in the Ukraine war looks at the subject of nuclear conflict and what this means. It points out that China has no first use nuclear doctrine and Russia being dependent on China's support in the Ukraine conflict as a deterrent. It also sees the inner circle of a Russian and American president internally in conflict over nuclear weapons use in any situation.

The occasion of the discussion in the US and Europe on this issue and internally in other countries including China and India this week show the need for a complete rethinking of where we are and how we have come here. Much of the world- billions of people in Asia and Latin America, Africa, North America has little to do with the conflict in one small part of the world- which makes such talk irresponsible and reckless behaviour. 

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Stalled peace process for Ukraine after Alaska meetings September 2025. Europe is looking ahead to no quick end in the war in 2025. Russia seeks better relations with US but wants to end the war in Ukraine on its own terms. Congress supports Ukraine, as DJT looks for ways to improve relations with Russia as a nuclear superpower, and find ways to bring both sides closer to end the war without success. Following the Alaska meetings a few signs of progress but not enough to reach a settlement of the war as Russia seeks to keep territory in the east and Ukraine looks for security guarantees that Russia has not yet agreed to. Germany under Merz ramps up its defense forces as the US seeks to avoid involvement in a conflict in northern Europe.

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German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says Germany will not be blackmailed. She rejected the idea that Russia is expanding its attacks on Ukraine in response to supply of longer range artillery from the US and Germany saying this was just "new propaganda from the Russian side."

Baerbock also said Germany needs to avoid a situation of being dependent on an aggressor for gas supply. Germany is now "very intensively" looking at its dependencies on China, said Baerbock. This is going to be  for "a sovereign European strategy of independence in critical infrastructure."

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Rugged hilly coast and shallow narrow straits - problems for Straits of Hormuz shipping is shown in the NYT following similar reports in WSJ. It will cost $200 billion for the munitions supplies and interceptors, and US naval operations, French naval operations to keep the Straits of Hormuz open, which is supported by US business as is seen in opinion in Editorial Board of WSJ on March 24, 2026. The Straits are a lifeline for Asia until renewable energy and alternative supplies of oil make the Straits history and a redundant proposition, which will be sooner than later after this episode, one too many more from the Middle East. More likely by 2030-2035. China and Japan depend on it for 90% of imports, and India 50% with alternative supplies provided for India from the US and Russia. Germany is only dependent on the Straits for 6% of its imports showing how far Germany has come and how important renewables and alternative sources of oil such as Venezuela will become in the time ahead, in a two pronged strategy that does not forget the challenges posed by climate from fires and floods. Were not stuck with the Straits- Japan and China can and will find alternative sources and increase production of renewable energy in the way Germany has done to get to 6% of imports from that region. ...

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One of the opportunities of this pandemic is that it offers a chance to think anew and act anew. Where in Lincoln's words "the dogmas of the past are inadequate for the stormy present, as our case is new we must think anew and act anew." Here Vladimir Putin offers his assessment of how the pandemic calls for a fresh approach to reviving De Gaulle and other postwar European leaders vision of Europe that spanned the entire continent culturally including Russia. He accepts mistakes have been made by all sides and the title of the article by Putin is "Be Open, Despite the Past." The Russian Embassy in Germany contacted De Zeit for publication of an article by Putin, and it can be seen as part of the Russian response to president Biden's effort to build a new cooperative relationship with Russia that is in the best interests of the US, Russia, Germany, the European Union and also of India which has a cooperative relationship with Russia. There is the danger that it could be seen as reported in The Times of London and comments posted seeing it against distrust built around Ukraine and Eastern Europe. The 670 Comments in Germany on De Zeit site on the article reflect a more German perspective of being a close neighbor that suffered so much from the war that left millions dead on both sides. One German commenter says his father and grandfather were forcibly recruited to fight in France and Russia and suffered much in wartime. The occasion is the 80th anniversary of the German invasion of Russia in World War II. Some of what Putin has to say- "We hoped that the end of the Cold War would mean victory for all of Europe. It would not be long before Charles De Gaulle's vision of a unified continent would become a reality, more culturally and civilizationally from Lisbon to Vladivostock." Russia has changed, Russians see themselves as European, as part of the larger European Union, culturally and civilizationally. This is not the old Russia of the Cold War or of the Soviet period. "NATO itself a relic of the Cold War, created out of a confrontation from that time." Not objecting to NATO but to the expansion of NATO to Russia's borders. But saying this has not got us anywhere where our heart not our brain says we ought to go. Lets try again to draw different conclusions from what we have seen. Its important to think anew because "we are all confronted with the common challenges of the pandemic and its extremely serious social and economic consequences." "The entire prosperity and security of our common continent are only possible through the combined efforts of all our countries, including Russia because Russia is one of the largest European states. Wed feel our inseparable cultural and economic ties to Europe." "We simply cannot afford to carry around the burden of previous misunderstandings, hurts, conflicts and mistakes. A burden that prevents us from solving current problems. We are convinced that we all have to admit and correct these mistakes. Our common and undisputed goal is to ensure the security of the continent without dividing lines. And to create a unified space for equal cooperation and collective development in the interests of the prosperity of Europe and of the whole world." President Biden was right to think anew and act anew in Geneva, and to "disenthrall ourselves" from old ways of thinking, and for rising to the occasion. Jill Biden said of president Biden's preparation for the meeting in Geneva- "Hell, he was overprepared," and it showed Biden's genuine feeling and effort that he owed it "in the interests of Europe and the world."       ...

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The nuclear arms race between Russia, China and the U.S. accelerates in 2016, as the arms control effort suffers a setback with poor relations between the U.S. and Russia, and China's bid to build up its nuclear weapons. This makes the world a more dangerous place, and puts at risk the gains made in the early years of the Obama administration with the SALT arms control negotiations and treaties in 2010-2011.

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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Germany and the European Union are improving their defenses as the conflict drags on. The US position DJT has articulated is to bring an end to the war to end the daily loss of lives on both sides. Looking back was it worth loss of hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides and the damage to the economy, to housing from bombing, and the millions of refugees many older people, just for the Association Agreement with the European Union in 2013-2014. This has been completely mismanaged by all sides, the EU officials responsible, the governments in Europe including Russia and Germany, and Ukraine's political parties and their appeal to the people, and by the administration of Obama in the US. DJT and administration officials have long made it clear that they don't want this war, the war in Ukraine. A conflict that has been going on in some form or other between parts of Ukraine in the west and Russian influenced regions in the east as governments changed before and after protests in Kviv in 2013 over an agreement on association with the European Union long before the current war; some favorable to Putin and some not like the current government. So it is surprising that Medvedev would make remarks about DJT and the US to draw a confrontation between the two powers US and Russia in this way in X, remarks DJT calls "inflammatory."  Especially when the US is trying its best to negotiate and end to the war by pressuring both sides. It's defending of Ukraine only to stop the missile attacks on it's cities to give peaceful resolution a chance, not to aggravate the conflict.   ...

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In a major effort to halt increased missile attacks on Kviv and Ukraine by Russia DJT makes a decision to send Patriot anti missile systems to Ukraine financed by Germany. “It’ll be business for us, and we will send them Patriots, which they desperately need, because Putin really surprised a lot of people. He talks nice, and then he bombs everybody in the evening. There’s a little bit of a problem there, and I don’t like it.” In Congress Senators Graham and Blumenthal have 85 Senators behind a bill to support Ukraine and place penalties of upto 500% tariffs on countries that support Russia in its war effort by buying oil -including China, India and Brazil. Graham says- "China, India and Brazil buy oil and petroleum products and other goods from Russia—that’s the money Putin uses to prosecute the war.” Graham adds- "the U.S. had reached a turning point regarding Russia.” ...

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In August 2023 the Ukraine war is reduced to small unit tactics after a stalled Ukraine offensive. The results of the war over the last 2 years is a broadened NATO with Sweden and Finland inside NATO increasing the borders of NATO with Russia. On the Russian side some of eastern Ukraine on the Black Sea and the Dnieper river are now part of Russia in addition to the Crimea. The Ukraine offensive is stalled. Russia's economy has shifted from its western European orientation for energy exports and auto other imports to a Chinese orientation.  These changes are likely to remain with a shift of supply chains back from China and its suppliers to the US and the EU. This acts to restore the factory bases in the US and EU and revive communities built around factories in small towns across the region. This will bring back regions in the EU and the US that suffered from the loss of factory jobs and public services they supported. Overall this is a healthier situation for the people of Europe and the US. For China also the situation reverses to better quality yet slower growth, and a pause to take stock of the immense changes that happened with explosive growth in trade- the damage to the environment, floods and heat waves from climate change, the explosion in debt to three time its GDP, higher unemployment, rural poverty, and devise solutions to these problems. The war has accelerated the unraveling of the existing economic, social and trade arrangements that had stopped working for many years. ...

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US president Biden authorizes $350 million in immediate military assistance to Ukraine. Western leaders now believe that NATO countries are at risk if they do not help stop the invasion, as it now appears that Russia seeks to restore a sphere of influence across Eastern Europe that existed under the Soviet Union. In 1956 Soviet tanks entered Budapest, Hungary. A situation reminiscent of that in Hungary is now taking place in Ukraine in 2022. Earlier the Russian view of Ukraine neutrality was accepted by western leaders- the situation has changed during the last week, as it is now perceived that Russia seeks to change the situation in Eastern Europe. This completely alters western Europe's and America's view of the situation in Ukraine. All this has happened in a matter of days, and in a few weeks. On the Russian side the invasion is not popular with street protests in Moscow and people on the street skeptical about the invasion and its objectives. The view is beginning to emerge that this invasion only breaks the fraternal ties between the Belarus, Ukrainian and Russian peoples that have existed for centuries. In this sense the politics and governments of the present are not relevant as much as the shared history. Ironically it is this shared history that Mr. Putin seemed to want to assert. Yet it ignored the fact that Ukraine also has a shared history with Poland and the Baltic countries and the desire for a different system of government is common to all the people's of the world. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia and India; UK and Scotland or Ireland; Sweden, Norway and Denmark, Canada, Britain and the US; Hungary, Austria and Germany; all have a shared history yet the people in each country at different periods of history have made their own choices and decided what they would do as independent countries.  ...

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The US under president DJT puts out a new National Security Strategy in a document which states it clearly. The days of the Middle East given importance are thankfully over it says. The focus is on the First Islands, from Taiwan, Philippines to Japan for strengthening defense in relation to China. The Monroe Doctrine is now part of US foreign policy with a DJT addition- "that the American people- not foreign nations or globalist institutions- will always control our own destiny in our hemisphere."  It also means the US has a new policy towards Russia and for NATO.  The DJT administration priority, it states, is “ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.” The new strategy is that Europe needs to “take primary responsibility for its own defense.” The Monroe Doctrine and the disassociation with NATO expansion are linked. How so? Russia's foreign policy is for winning recognition as a Northern European Power with its own version of the Monroe Doctrine, being able to control its destiny in its sphere of influence. The way the Monroe Doctrine was implemented in 1823 was by a tacit recognition gained from Britain that it would support the US in its idea of no European colonial powers (France, Spain other ) being allowed to interfere in Latin America, in the western hemisphere. In 2025 the way the Monroe Doctrine is implemented with the DJT Corollary is that the US is tacitly gaining support from Russia/China for implementing the Monroe Doctrine so that no foreign powers will interfere in US sphere influence in the western hemisphere.  Where does this leave Europe and Ukraine? European Union and NATO expansion has now gone too far and NATO which was primarily for Cold War struggle between Communism and US/UK style democracies is over, but NATO has not been disbanded, or a new alliance setup with new goals. Instead as it lingers on it has created new problems such as NATO expansion to the borders of Russia, creating security risks for Russia. This has led to the war in Ukraine and the Republican administration under DJT seeks to defuse tensions and the Ukraine war by excluding NATO expansion, removing the US from European security by delegating that back to Europe (Germany and France, Italy, UK) and by acting as a moderating influence between Russia and Germany, France, that see Russia as a threat after it's attack on Ukraine. US also upholds the policy and principle of no nation invading another country, as Russia did with Ukraine, and in anticipation of the China threat to Taiwan. This part gets nuanced but the overall policy is coherent and Russia accepts this, China is gradually coming to the idea that it has to accept this situation with Taiwan to preserve its economic advances and its exports to the US and EU.  In practice once the interference of China or Russia is removed and European powers in addition, the US has freedom of action in the Western hemisphere and Latin America to prevent crises such as with drug trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela, and unstable regimes sending people north to the US across the Mexican border as from Central America and Venezuela.   ...

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This NYT report by Eric Schmitt describes the efforts of U.S. troops in Europe under Lt. Gen. Frederick Hodges to build  a fast movement capability to counter the threat from Russian forces on the borders of countries in Eastern Europe. Hodges says speed of movement is crucial. American forces are deployed in smaller numbers than the Russian forces. A 10 day exercize under Hodges involved 25,000 American and allied forces across Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. Russian forces exercizes involve more than 100,000 troops. The war in Ukraine involved a breakaway region in the east supported by Russian forces.

Commanders and younger officers were trained to address the Cold War threat with the soviets. Then for over a decade the focus shifted to Afghanistan, then Iraq and Syria. Now the focus shifts back to the Eastern European area with a new Russian threat.

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War in Ukraine after failed Alaska effort by US to end the war. In September 2025 Russia holds out, spurning peace efforts from the US president, to see if the economy holds out over the next 24 months and Russia can get Ukraine to abandon it's efforts to join the EU and Western European alliances. The baffling aspect of this war is that the neutral aspect adopted by Finland before the war, by Sweden, by the Swiss, was never considered as a realistic option by Ukraine, looking beyond the problems of the 1930's and having awareness that there were weaknesses in both the capitalist and the Soviet systems, to take the broad larger view. And with that being realistic that a better effort would be to reflect on the corruption and lack of clean government, the need to build the healthy institutions that would serve the people best. The approach taken by Gandhi in India in its relations with Britain, to preserve the best and improve on what failed the Indian people, and reflect on the integrity, the right attitude needed for India in the Modern World. From the Russian side the failure to use the period before the shift to renewable energy to invest the capital used in the war of $200 billion a year for a stronger economy and industrial base in 2022- 2027- an investment of a trillion dollars that would make it the industrial power and support its position as the preeminent power in Northern Europe. ...

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A very relevant comment about the media coverage on Putin's negotiations in Beijing for supplying natural gas to China, by a reader of the WSJ, Frank Peel. He points out China and Russia do not share the same goals and Putin talked about the Chinese as tough negotiators after signing the deal. The price as a "commercial secret" is because its years, could be 5, before gas actually flows to China from Siberian fields. Russia, is a smaller oil based economy- having failed to make the transition to a diversified economy- and very susceptible to the economic conditions in Europe and the U.S., as the 2008 crisis showed with very steep drops in output. President Obama has also pointed to this. Russia also shares with Argentina the tendency for elites- in the case of Russia a newly created oligarchy of business interests under Putin and his predecessor- to shift capital out of the country, making it even more susceptible to loss of value of the currency, the ruble. Devaluation of the ruble experienced under Yeltsin was severely traumatic for Russia, and the head of Russia's central bank went on state television recently to reassure ordinary Russians that this would not happen. The rainy day sovereign fund of over $400 billion acts as a cushion for shocks in short periods, but sustained loss of foreign investment would damage prospects for future improvements in standards of living or economic growth....

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Russia stated at a meeting of OPEC oil producers that it would not accept cuts in oil production to stabilize the oil market. The coronavirus effects on the world economy have resulted in a sharp decline in demand for oil. This lack of an agreement among oil producers is leading to a steep drop of 30% in oil prices on March 9, 2020. The Russian position in talks was that it was too early for deep cuts considering that the  true impact of the coronavirus on the world economy was unknown, and that the loss of 1 million bbd from Libya had already reduced production. Experts say the Russians wanted to stabilize oil prices around $50 a barrel and the Saudis a bit higher. Under the OPEC agreement Russia would have to reduce its production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bbd), in addition to 2.1 million bbd from previous cuts that would be extended to March, which it found unacceptable. The impact of the double whammy of continued increase in coronavirus cases around the world and the drop in oil prices as a reflection of business confidence was also felt in world stock markets.  Russia's budget is less sensitive to oil prices than the Saudis. The Saudis need somewhere near $80 per barrel to breakeven. Analysts say Russia does not want to lose market share to American shale oil companies which do not have output cuts and benefit from lower oil prices. Shale oil companies in the U.S. are struggling in the present situation of low prices as many of them need $65 a barrel in price to breakeven. About 208 shale oil companies in the U.S. made bankruptcy filings since 2015.  The oil importing countries with increasing oil imports such as India will benefit from the drop in oil prices. Japan and other oil importing countries in Europe, Africa and Asia will also benefit as Russia and the Saudis go all out to increase production. ...

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US trade deficit of $46 billion with India and DJT call to buy oil and gas from the US, to shift away from purchases of $50 billion of oil from Russia, of 2 million barrels a day. India only imported $1 billion of oil from Russia in 2020 and this is a call from the US to India to stop financing Russia's increasing air attacks on Ukraine in August 2025. For India this oil came at $70 a barrel when prices were around $90-$100 a barrel in 2022-2024. In 2025 oil prices are at $60 a barrel, and even if prices increase to $70 a barrel India can make the shift. US and Germany, the EU, Britain which seek negotiated end to the war in Ukraine will continue to pressure India in 2025. Russia could shift some of the oil to other places but the huge demand from a country India's size will not then be seen as a factor in prolonging the war. India needs to think ahead for the next 20 years and its goal of modernization by 2047 like China has done in 2000-2020. And not get into a nationalistic mode that may not be in the best interests of the Indian people seeing that this may serve the interests of all nations including Russia to phase out this European war. ...