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Airlines are learning to price aggressively, and sophisticated pricing models are helping to improve revenues. Online buying and search habits of travellers aim at getting lower prices, even as the airlines are using pricing models to price aggressively by monitoring passenger buying throughout the day. Further consolidation, as for instance a merger of Delta with US Airways, would further shrink airline fleets and raise prices as seat capacity is filled up. Southwest Airways continues to expand its fleet and is moving in the opposite direction, but it is also expanding routes flown and is increasing its presence in the market visa vis the other airlines. Overall, with 80 to 100% of capacity filled, airlines are finally obtaining some of the pricing power to operate at a profit. Note that leisure fares and business fares are moving in the opposite direction. Leisure down 9% year over year, business up 20% year over year. After the seats fill up the unsold seat is discounted as a filled seat vs a unfilled seat, means at the margin pure profit for the filled seat even at highly discounted rates. It also raises the capacity filled per flight to a higher level....

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The unemployment rate of 5.9% in the US in June 2021 is still higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 3.5%. It is also different in other ways that are not so apparent. There are 9 million Americans looking for jobs. They are also looking for jobs outside industries that were hit hard during the pandemic, or pursuing better jobs with less commute and more remote work, and jobs outside of warehousing which requires less of the skills and training they have or in remote locations far from where they live. Economists like to use terms such as "mismatch" to describe this as in this report in WSJ. This does not bring home to us the enormous human toll of the pandemic. A recent survey of US workers for April by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that 31% of people do not want to return to their old jobs up from 20% in July 2020. One in three from one in five last year are looking for something different than the the jobs that were hit hard in each successive wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Other surveys have found that 70% of workers who last worked for the leisure and hospitality industries are looking for something in a different industry. Leisure and hospitality that includes restaurants and hotels, airports, were hammered in this pandemic. And 55% of job applicants in one survey were found to be looking for remote work. Economists also see the macroeconomy in terms of supply and demand for labor, in terms of interest rates with low interest rates as a way to tackle unemployment, yet this has limited value in real life situations in the economy when it is affected by a number of factors, including some unusual factors such as the pandemic and man made events such as the global financial crisis of 2009 from banking missteps. The federal government has to take steps of its own to support Americans as these changes take place in the economic situation and Americans are in need of help with adjustments. ...

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Anupreeta Das looks at the groundwork being done at Berkshire Holdings to prepare for a future without Mr. Buffett. Investors are concerned about Berkshire's prospects after Buffett, because of his large imprint on the firm's strategy and operations.

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Strong deman in the first quarter 2008 for cars in China 2 VW models the Santana and the Jetta are in the top 5 bestsellers along with Honda Accord and Buick Excelle but Buick Excelle is 5 years old and is slipping. Cherry is no 5 in best selling models. @.58 million cars sold in China in 1st quarter up 21 % from last year. Hond gained as no2 to the Santana because its a global new generation release of this model. The Chinese market is quite perceptive and demanding and GM may hav become complacent with the Excelle 5 years old.

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U.S. Federal Reserve minutes for Sept. 16-17, 2014 released October 8, show the mood shifting away from raising interest rates, as a stronger dollar and weak overseas growth are likely to lower U.S. economic growth, A stronger dollar is likely to keep inflation down. Fed officals showed serious concern about slowing economies of Europe, Japan and China lower U.S. exports. A former Fed adviser Jon Faust, director of the Center for Financial Economics at John Hopkins University, says even with no action from the Fed on interest rates, the stronger dollar makes financial conditions more restrictive, and acts as a tightening. The Fed minutes are before the crisis in Hong Kong which created geopolitical tensions and affects foreign investment climate for China, reducing Chinese growth even further.

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Coca Cola's new Turkish-American CEO Muhtar Kent is interviewed by the WSJ's Mike Esterl. Kent answers questions about obesity and Coke, about management style, plans with Coca Cola's cash reserves of $13 billion, and his olive grove in the Aegean part of Turkey. He says he is a hands-on person and spends one day in the market every week wherever he is, keen on learning something each time. He points to the time spent on trucks during the seven and half months in 1978, when he joined the company. His response to the obesity issue is that Coca Cola is now a 500 plus brand, 3000 products company, of which 800 introduced in the last 4-5 years are calorie free or low calorie.

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The Wall Street Journal CEO Council which met in Washington for a 1 day conference provided some idea about what CEO's are thinking. Laurence Meyer a former Federal Reserve governor said he projected a 4% annualized contraction in output in the 4th quarter and a 2% annualized contraction in output in the first quarter of 2009, and the US unemployment rate exceeding 8% by the end of 2009. That does not include impact of alarge stimulus program by the incoming Obama administration. Asked to vote by electronic device only one out of 93 CEO's said it will be 6 months before the economy returns to a normal growth rate, almost 80% were expecting a slow economy through 2009 and 2010.

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Nicolas Tenzer, who teaches at Sciences Po in Paris, says that the new relationship between U.S. president Trump  and the French president Macron, is a result of Macron having the capacity to react quickly and follow his intuition. He says there is even a bit of seduction in this for the younger Macron to bring the older Trump back into the circle, knowing that Europe needed someone who could talk to the American president in a way that others did not choose to or just could not. This includes chancellor Merkel of Germany. The relationship started out awkwardly with Macron expressing some disdain after the Trump decision to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement. Soon after the initial differences Macron's spokesperson Castaner said that it was an important task, that "of bringing the president of the United States back into the circle." It is an intelligent move and typical of Macron to move quickly and do things that make sense in the interest of the EU and America. On Bastille day the French are also honoring the U.S. for the sacrifices in two wars, and it made sense to bring the U.S. president in so that other differences could be set aside to work together on issues such as terrorism, mutual security, and trade. It is not uncommon to have seen such differences, and they were handled differently in the past. German chancellor Schmidt had a difficult relationship with president Jimmy Carter. Carter with his rural Georgia background as a peanut farmer was seen in the way Trump is seen in many parts of Europe. President Bush was also treated with skepticism in Germany, more for policies of going to war in Iraq.  For Macron it shows his uncanny ability to do things which for other people may not sound convincing. Being critical of the U.S. president may also have set the stage for a real relationship because it may have earned him the respect of being someone who had his views and was not hesitant to express them, just as he was on Algeria and other issues. And yet willing to have a friendly, open conversation with someone from a different background and with different views. At Lyrarc we singled out the Spiegel Macron interview on the fast train to Bordeaux, as something that showed him to be comfortable and calm  in unusual settings, and not affected by the magnitude of the task at hand or people's opinions. ...

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David Albright, a former weapons inspector in Iraq, says 24 days is enough time for Iran to wipe out traces of nuclear work, such as working with explosives to trigger a weapon or construction of a small plant to make centrifuges. A situation actually happened in 2003 when the atomic energy agency wanted to inspect the Kalaye Electric Company site in Iran in 2003, where Iran was using centrifuges received from Pakistan. Iranians removed all traces of illicit work at the time while delaying inspectors. This case was cited by Olli Heinonen, a former deputy director of the agency. Heinonen says smaller scale activity such as manufacturing uranium components for a nuclear weapon can be carried out and the traces deleted in 24 days. Senator Corker points out that the time allowed would be more than 24 days when all the time is added up correctly.

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The bidding for 3PAR, a high-end storage company, is expected to reach $2.2 billion. There are questions as to whether the two rival bidders Hewlett-Packard and Dell are wasting cash. Hewlett-Packard may be doing this to protect its busines in the storage field. The bidding is reaching a frantic pace, even though 3PAR is not profitable.

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One of the big changes is to give responsibility to younger managers. Chairman Whitacre's marching orders are to cut executive ranks and gve responsibility to a whole new group of younger managers. Performance reviews and goal setting is short-one page. The organizational chart for vehicle reviews that required 70 or so executives to pass on it is gone. Product decisions are made at weekly meetings with the President present. And people are not supposed to fear speaking up if a change is needed to what they are doing for a product. Debate is in and seniority is not supposed to be the factor it once was. 50 page presentations are out. Reuss, who heads global engineering, describes his start in 1983 as a student intern, and the lack of debate that made it impossible for him to say anything about the failed Aztek van, that his bosses might not like to hear.Its as if these types of product decisions were somehow the work of higherups with managers not having an equal or more important say....

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Castilla-La Mancha includes the region around Toledo, Spain. It has an unemployment rate of 27% for the 1st quarter of 2012, up 5.4% from 2011, faster than the increase of 3.1% to 24.4% for Spain. Estimates from the University Carlos III in Madrid show economic growth contracting with GDP decline at 3.1% annual rate by the end of June 2012 for Castilla La Mancha. Part of the problem was the lack of credible accounts by the previous administration. Unpaid bills to suppliers were not included in the accounts for the region. When Maria Dolores de Cospedal of the Partido Popular became the president in May 2011, these unpaid bills were discovered and led to the doubling of the region's budget deficit to 7.3% for 2011. Cospedal sees the austerity cuts she is making as a long term approach to preserve education and healthcare. In an interview with Sara Schaeffer Munoz of the WSJ she says reducing debt is the first priority, so that interest rate premiums on borrowing can be brought down. Debt for Castilla was 17.2% of GDP in 2011, according to the Bank of Spain, it was 16.6% in the first quarter of 2012, among the highest of Spain's regions Ms. Cospedal says she wants growth too, but insists that Spain cannot get growth as long as it is sinking in debt. Moody's Investors Service says Ms. Cospedal is strict in executing the budget- a new second hospital slated to be built for 150 million euros in Cuenca with population 56,000 was cancelled and other cuts are proceeding- and Moody's did not include Castilla in the downgrades of 7 Spanish regions in June 2012. ...

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How Northwestern University Kellogg School's Inaba Yoshimi is trying to turnaround Toyota's performance in China. Toyota is a latecomer in the China market and cultural hurdles hamper Japanese managers in China. Because Toyota dealerships in Japan use a salesforce that gets income from salary and does not depend on commissions, selling only Toyota cars, the Japanese experience seemed irrelevant to China. The experience of Toyota in China is more like the experience in the U.S. market with a sales force earning income from commissions and dealers selling many brands. In other respects China's market is different from the U.S. The Chinese market is growing very fast, and millions of cusomers are joining the carowning population, all first time buyers in an internet information intensive environment with savy informed customers. Keeping the salesforce motivated and interested in selling Toyota cars is a challenge in China. Also how to allocate cars to dealers based on how many cars move off their lots, and how to buildup a large network of Toyota dealerships and widen the range of product available in China. Management challenges have been tackled by bringing experienced veteran managers from the U.S. to China, who are culture neutral and are seen positively by the Chinese managers and staff. General Motors has a big headstart in China and is marketing to the younger demographic in China. Median age of Chinese buyers is 35 years age. See the related article on Chinese buyers and what drives their buying habits in article by Bremner in Business Week, May 17, 2006....

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Much of the US jobs market is stalled with a "noticeable deterioration" by June says the Fed. Companies are not laying off people, yet they are also not hiring. The class of 2025 faces a job market with a real slowdown. Hiring has dropped 44% compared to June 2022 says one payrolls company Gusto looking at data from 400,000 businesses. The economy has 4% unemployment, yet for new college graduates it is 6.6% for 12 months ending May 2025. Some companies are pushing back dates of hire into 2026. 

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Economists at the IMF estimate that the public debt of the leading 10 industrialized countries would reach 114% of GDP by 2014, from 78% today. The governments then owe about $50,000 for each person in the country. Unlike World War II this situation is not temporary, because of the pension and health care costs of a population that is getting older. So what is to be done? Without the stimulus, the deep and prolonged recession would lead to greater damage to the finances of these countries. But continued in this manner the government would crowd out private investment and lead to lower economic growth. In some countries, Greece, Ireland, Italy Portugal and Spain it might lead to default, in other countries the real cost of the debt may be reduced through inflation. In the USA yields on 10 year Treasuries reached about 4% on June 10th, in December it was about 2%, a consequence of the economic recovery. If interest rates are allowed to rise too fast, it might abort the economic recovery. A rise in taxes is also not the answer, because in Europe the taxes are already at 40%, in America they are around 30%. But raising consumption taxes at the time when the economy was fragile, aborted a recovery in Japan during Japan's earlier crisis decade. A caution signal that says fiscal tightening can backfire, especially some years after a banking crisis when things are still in a weak condition. Some steps that can be taken are raising the retirement age, which would cut pension costs as people work longer and would boost tax revenues, and eliminating the tax deduction for home mortgage payments in the US. Its important to build credibility that the government and the legislative bodies are serious about controlling the finances and acting with prudence. In America wasteful health care spending is a priority, as this would reduce the burden on public finances considerably , and should be as much of a priority for the new Obama administration, as providing universal health care. With today's finances its not something that can be put off....

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A second term Trump-Vance will face uphill risks and a mess in economics from a Trumpian Republican party and Congress, says WSJ. WSJ Editorial Board says a second Trump term is not without risks. Tariffs cost 1.1% in annual growth in the Trump first term says WSJ, and it did have an impact on inflation. It would have had greater impact on inflation with the supply chain crisis of Biden's first term, had this supply chain crisis happened in Trump's first term. A second term Trump-Vance support tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports which would have a bigger effect on inflation and economic growth than of the first term. The key difference is that with tax cuts a basic rule for Republican policies Trump-Vance second term would not invest in infrastructure the way Mr. Biden has done and Biden will do so in a second term. As a result the economic growth is likely to be greater and inflation smaller under a Biden administration. Trillions of dollars in investment in the economy and infrastructure under Biden in a second term will be missing in a Trump-Vance tax cuts administration policy. And with it hundreds of thousand of jobs created each quarter will be missing in Trump-Vance second term. Add to this the level of clarity of stable economic policy under a Biden second term and contrast it with some of the chaos in economic policy of a Trump-Vance second term. The basic contradiction between tax cuts policy and the nation's need for infrastructure spending/rebuilding under a Republican under Trump administration will not go away, present a huge stumbling block. Chaotic policy could come from Project 2025 that says consider abolishing the US central bank Federal Reserve. This kind of erratic and unwise policy proposals are clearly not happening under Biden and Yellen. Another key difference is the cost to the economy of delays of several years in doing nothing for climate in Trump-Vance 2024-2028. Severe effects on climate if nothing is done could cause acceleration of climate negative costs which a future economy under Democrats would face, in reality the Nation would face. America's Business has taken a short term approach to climate change, when the time comes to pay the costs of short term thinking it assumes it is somebody else's problem- this happened with supply chain concentration in China the burden falling on the middle and lower classes, it would happen again with missing climate change action under Trump-Vance second term. ...

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The cost is $117 million the number of students estimated at 20,000 who can be educated in this way who cannot afford the high tution fees at the universities in Minnesota including the University of Minnesota system. In opposing access to higher education the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board also reflects the views of billionaire owners out of touch with the people of America and the Nation. The WSJ Editorial Board says nothing about the egregious situation today shown on its pages of capital allocation that has gone upside down and scary. For example it showed in one week : $110 million capital allocated to invent a better golf ball $700 million lost in capital allocated by investment funds in a facial lotion brand that uses natural ingredients. This is just to cite 2 of thousands of such capital allocations many of them shown on Lyrarc.com as examples of poor and egregious scary capital allocation for a nation built on fairness and building opportunities for workers and families through the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution. The very investment that differentiated America and Europe from the feudal societies of China and India that self destructed in the 20th century after enormous suffering for hundreds of millions of the Chinese and Indian people. Isn't this like turning ones back on the Advantages that accrued to Europe and America from its wise investments and turning one's back on the Enlightenment in Europe and America itself? This is the statement to be found on the Minnesota Office of Higher Education- "Beginning in fall 2024, the North Star Promise (NSP) Scholarship program will create a tuition and fee-free pathway to higher education for eligible at eligible Minnesota residents at eligible institutions as a "last-dollar" program by covering the balance of tuition and fees remaining after other scholarships, grants, stipends and tuition waivers have been applied. By making college accessible and affordable, NSP is intended to have a positive impact on multiple fronts: Help stabilize enrollment at Minnesota public institutions of higher education; Serve as an economic driver for Minnesota by educating qualified workers who are much needed to fill vacancies in the state's labor force; Create a viable higher education path for Minnesota residents who may have previously thought education was not a possibility for them. We estimate this program will impact 15,000-20,000 students in the first academic year." The cost estimate at $117 million a year . ...

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Solar energy production continues to grow in the US South in states like Georgia, Tennessee, Florida and Texas. In Georgia and Tennessee pine trees were planted in large numbers to replace crops with lumber when crop prices were low. With low prices for logs University of Georgia research shows 10X income even for a few acres for landowners in the South when they shift from pine trees to solar panels.

Timber Company Rayonier's CEO says for an acre of timberland income is $80 compared to $800 or $1200  for solar farms. When solar companies buy timberland they pay 5 times timberland value. Weyerhaeuser alone has 130,000 acres with 70 options to build solar farms. US needs 250,000 acres a year for solar farms to generate needed solar energy.

When land is near a wildlife preserve and bear territory it should rightly be preserved from solar farms which is happening in this case cited by WSJ in Tennessee. 

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Building extensive subway systems in large cities is the next focus for China's infrastructure building effort. China's prime minister, Li Keqiang supports "new urbanization, with people at the center." Building convenient mass transit for cities with subways and light rail is seen as a way to improve living in urban environments. Other related priorities are water supply, garbage disposal and more sidewalks. Subway lines reaching further into the fringes of cities helps push population out further and lead to less overcrowding and pressures on limited space in core areas of cities This also takes pressure off increasing automobile use inside the centre of cities, reduces overall automobile use in urban areas, and frees up money for consumers to spend on products other than automobiles. This fits in with the plan to urbanize China, by taking pressure off property prices, reducing air pollution from automobile use, and improving quality of life. It is also seen as a way to stimulate economic activity in the fringe areas as subways extend further to outlying urban areas. An example is the $300 million three station line to Kunshan, an extension above ground to Shanghai's subway, which is expected to connect with a line to Suzhou. China's cities have spent about 22% of the total debt of $1.76 trillion in 2010 on transportation infrastructure, according to national audit. The subway and light rail effort is taking place in 26 cities with new or expanding lines, according to the Transportation Technology Development and Planning Research Center. Subways charge much less in China compared to New York- 2 yuan or 30 cents compared to $2.50 base fare in New York city, and will need local government and state subsidies. ...

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This view from the Guardian by David Adler from July 8 2019, gives a third perspective on Greece as it goes into elections. It looks at the turbulent period of 2015-2019 when a new leader Alexis Tsipras promised to lead Greece out of the eurozone crisis by standing up to the ECB and Germany, instead of looking at Greece's own responsibility in letting debt buildup till it overwhelmed Greece. Adler says Syriza was too much on one end blaming Germany for strict conditions on a loan bailout, and after this did not work embracing the loan program in a complete reversal causing much anguish to his own support base when this led to callous implementation.  Mitsotakis is careful to say in his interview with Reuters that the vulnerable have to be protected while also committing to a path of economic growth for Greece. It says 50 billion euros was provided to help people with the cost of living crisis, pensions were increased, minimum wage increased by 20%. It also shows the need to judge by looking at the situation not by labels of centre left or center right, are people better off, will people be better off in the future, are all the bases education, healthcare, public services, infrastructure covered? Is the government honest with the people and doing everything it can after listening to the people? ...

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The debt ceiling agreement between Biden and McCarthy has made it out of the committee stage and now heads to the House floor. Both Biden and McCarty are confident it will pass quickly before June 5. There are some surprises as the the impact of the debt ceiling agreement is better understood. 78,000 additional people will get food aid costing an additional $2 billion as a result of the tighter work requirements for the food aid program. The program will make it easier for veterans and homeless people to get benefits.  The cuts to the IRS funding by about $21 billion will be used by the Biden adminstration to reduce the effects of other cuts in programs that help people struggling with the cost of living.  On defense spending Biden says "obviously if there is an existential need for additional spending I have no doubt we will be able to get it." Both sides say this agreement is the best that could be done for either side. "With divided government they get to have an opinion, and we get to have an opinion, and all things equal, I think a compromise agreement is reasonable for both sides," says Shalanda Young, Mr. Biden's negotiator and Budget Office Director. Congressional Budget Office estimate is for $1.5 trillion in debt reduction over a decade.   ...

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Hugh Schofield of the BBC gives this analysis of the televised national debate between Macron and Le Pen on April 20. BBC also gives a video of the debate. On the economy and cost of living- Macron said actions he has taken to put a cap on fuel prices and tax exemption for pay bonuses were fairer and more effective than Madame Le Pen's ideas. Le Pen said she would cut the VAT on energy. Macron said a cap on fuel prices was "twice as effective as dropping the sales tax." Le Pen said she will cut taxes, and no tax for under 30's.  On Europe and Russia- Macron said Le Pen was one of the first leaders to recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea. "You are speaking to your banker when you speak to Russia," Macron said referring to a bank loan from Russia. He also said that the French did not look to Russia for finance, when Le Pen said she was turned down by French banks. On the European Union- Macron argued that Le Pen's idea of "a Europe of nations" would spell the end of the European Union and that "you are selling a lie." Schofield says Macron avoided the trap of coming across as too arrogant or technocratic, sometimes even holding back.  ...

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The variant first identified in India called the Delta variant is 60% more infectious than the Kent variant found in the UK. The Delta variant is now the dominant variant in the UK. There is concern that this could lead to another wave just as the UK is reopening in the summer. There are over 6000 daily cases in the UK this week. The estimated R number is now 1.00 to 1.2 following the number being 1.00 to 1.1 in the earlier week. A R number over 1.0 suggests greater spread of the coronavirus. An R number of 1.1 suggests the number of cumulative cases is taking off meaning that the UK is at risk of a sudden surge in the coronavirus in June or July 2021. India faced a wave from the new variant's higher rate of infectious spread. leading to a sudden surge in May 2021 to 400,000 daily cases before it was brought down by June 1 to about 100,000 The number of hospitalizations in such a wave is estimated to be higher in UK than the previous waves, requiring the government to be more vigilant today. Restrictions on travel from Portugal are being put in place in UK as a precaution. After repeated waves as a consequence of complacency with the coronavirus the lesson now is to take steps early and take aggressive action in advance. ...

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On September 26 Germany holds a general election to decide who will lead Germany after Merkel. Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats is seen as personally popular for his work in government with 48% support in recent polls, with Armin Laschet of the Christian Democrats at 24% and Annalena Baerbock at 27%. The Social Democrats poll 24% and are expected to form a government with the Greens at 16% and the FDP party. Baerbock of the Greens and Armin Laschet of the Christian Democrats have lost support in recent weeks with the floods and other events. The figures are from Deutschlandtrend poll by Infratest dimap Institute.  The CDU of Merkel looks less likely to form a government under leadership of Armin Laschet today compared to a few months before. Merkel is still popular with most Germans but this support does not carry over to Armin Laschet. There may also be some sense among Germans that it is time for a change in government after the Merkel years even though she is personally popular. The difficulties imposed by the pandemic on the German people, and the added problems of the floods could lead voters to look for change in government under new leadership more sensitive to the problems of today- infrastructure, employment participation of people held back by the pandemic, and rebuilding healthcare, education, childcare systems, tackling climate change issues. ...