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Goldman analysts are thrown off by the depth and severity of the global financial crisis. Their forecasts for crude oil are all over the place, the latest $86 down from some $148 for 2009. Who knows where it will end up?

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Baker and Erlanger describe Russian president Putin's effort to finance parties on the right and the left to oppose western sanctions on Russia. The effort by Russian television RT to spread disinformation in the European Union. The goal is to create fractures in European unity and weaken the European Union and NATO. Other experts such as former national intelligence officer, Fiona Hill, and former assistant secretary of state, David Kramer, are skeptical about the effectiveness of these methods. These methods may also come from an old book of methods from the Cold War period because of president Putin's experience in Dresden during the Soviet days, which current European Union leaders would see as having little relevance to the global economy and global scene of today. The rise of the smaller parties in Europe in opposition to the traditional parties has more to do with the difficult economic conditions in Europe, and has little in common with Russia and its problems with its oil dependent economy and its interests in Eastern Europe. As the 2015 Pew Research survey on Europe shows, opinion is shifting towards greater support for the European Union as economic conditions improve, and is likely to move further in this direction with a return to economic growth. Favorable views of the EU which dropped from 60% in 2012 to 53% in 2014, was up to 61% in 2015, according to the survey. The Euroskeptic parties are viewed "as a good thing," as a way to shake up the complacency of the major ruling parties in tackling the economy, according to the Pew Europe Survey. In the percentage of people who see the Euroskeptic parties as a good thing for the country- Podemos left party in Spain gets 70% favorable rating, UK Independence Party 66% favorable, Five Star Movement in Italy 58%, AfD in Germany 50%, and much less so in France with 36% saying this for the National Front, and 36% for the New Right in Poland....

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The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...

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First disrupt the young people's attention and create effects on mental health of long hours spent on social media such as Tik Tok. This results in a loss of literacy on basic knowledge of civics and American history to lower and lower levels. Then let these young people decide who should run the country and its government for the next 4-8 years. The founders never intended this and never anticipated this threat. Congressmen Republican Gallagher of Wisconsin and Democrat Krisnamoorthi of Illinois introduced a bipartisan bill to ban TikTok in the US considering that it was foreign adversary application when its literacy effects are even more a concern. Byte Dance has appealed the law that goes into effect Jan 19, 2025. The appeal is now before a 3 person panel of the Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals of Sri Srinivasan, Neomi Rao, and Douglas Ginsburg. Does Byte Dance have recourse to the First Amendment rights in the US Constitution when the US sees Byte Dance as a foreign adversary controlled internet social media service, is the question before the Appeals Court and next before the US Supreme Court. The US government has shown the judges confidential classified data that shows why it thinks there is foreign adversary influence of some sort.  It is interesting to note that national literacy standards and the ability of average American young people to know enough about American history and civics that is in a dire state today and a key vulnerability for US democracy. This is gravely harmed by social media influence. Only negative effects on mental health of children and young girls has been put forward. Too many hours spent on social media is a negative influence which is why China and now Australia and UK have put restrictions on is use. US has none. India has banned Tik Tok for security reasons. In all situations there are negatives here yet it is an appalling thing that literacy is not the biggest one put forward when it should be for this Nation. ...

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Mohamed El-Erian is cohead at Pimco with Bill Gross. He was with the IMF for 15 years before joining Pimco which he left in 2005 to go to Harvard. He left Haarvard in december and rejoined Pimco. Pimco or the Pacific Investment Mangement Company oversees $810 billion in assets. Every spring employees of Pimco get together to paint a big picture view of what secular trends will drive markets. El-Erian says he missed this at Harvard. Very few of the investment managers marketing products to Harvard Investment Mnagement were anchored by secular or long term views. He appreciates the disciplined hardwired thinking that Bill Gross goes through on such issues as the end of the Cold War, the spread of capitalism in emerging markes, the USA productivity surge, and the rise of China's influence on the global economy. El-Erian thinks these secular long term views are anchors that help you from getting caught up in bad trades. In his view the last decade saw the balance sheet of emerging markets get recapitalized, the after Enron and Worldcom the US corporate and industrial sector recapitalized its balance sheet. Now its the US financial system that is recapitalizing its balance sheet, once this period is over it will be seen as very positive. He sees the USA about three quarters of the way through a major dislocation that has repriced the financial system. He sees risk for the small and midsized USA banks that are heaavily tied to commercial real estate and the consumer. The pressure is great for consumers. And unemployment is absolutely the key for the next 6 months, El-Erian emphasizes, because if too many people lose their jobs income and consumption will be thrown off balance. He says Pimco is focussing on senior parts of the capital structure with very high quality bonds....

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This opinion piece in De Zeit says there are different ways to look at Chancellor Merkel's refugee policy, as a failure, as an act of compassion, influenced by her experience in East Germany, her Christian upbringing as a daughter of a pastor, or Germany playing a role in Europe after Barrack Obama failed to provide American leadership in the refugee crisis. It says some of this commentary in the media ignores the fact that it was always the intention to accept a large number of migrants as part of a policy of European humanism in the face of misery of refugees, but to carefully manage this influx, to reduce the flow of refugees, and wind down the flow by vigorously addressing the causes. From this point of view the commentary about Merkel's failure is overdone. It is interesting that some of the weirder descriptions describe Germans conscious of the history as being outpatients in a American clinic closed down by president Obama. In any case American presidents have overreached, consider Reagan and Bush with German's strong or cautious reaction, and underreached with Obama providing cause for concern and efforts to fill in for a missing American role, with both roles difficult to fill for Germany by itself. America is not defined by its presidents and its politics alone, but by its own history, which has reflected the same values since the founding fathers Jefferson and Washington. Germany's policy has merely reflected these same values, at a time when the U.S. was simply taking a pause from its foreign involvements in regions fragmented by tribal, religious and other divisions. In doing so being the true partner it was its intention to be. ...

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Boudreaux and Bjork of the WSJ interview Mariano Rajoy, prime minister of Spain, in September 2013. Rajoy says he used to look at an app on the iPad hourly for changes in Spain's borrowing rates at the height of the banking crisis and found it a bit stressful. He hopes the current improvements in the economy will not stall the progress towards a closer union and setting up the financial architecture for the euro which puts the financial strength of the EU countries behind EU banks. Rajoy would like to see a banking union. He sees Spain's banking system not needing a bailout in 2014 and the changes having improved transparency, and capitalization of Spain's banking system. Other signs of improvement are increase in exports, a historic high in tourism revenues as a record is being set for the number of tourists visiting Spain in 2014, lower labor costs, and a current account deficit that reached 10% of GDP now in surplus.The 3rd quarter of 2013 brought an increase of 0.1% to 0.2% increase in GDP. If maintained this represents an annualized growth of 0.4% to 0.8% in GDP. GDP has declined 7.5% in the last 3 years. Rajoy expects GDP to go up 0.5% to 1% in 2014 and jobs being created but the progress only gradual. The government will consider further improvements for a flexible labor market. Increases in pension payments will not automatically be indexed to inflation for Spain's 9 million pensioners in 2014 as part of expected changes. Electricity rates will also not be indexed to inflation. Rajoy's main worry now is that there is a shortage of credit to increase household spending and the dire need for job creation....

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How the French health care system works. France comes in first and the USA 37th in aWHO health care ranking. THe difference in deaths from respiratory disease is half that in the USA, and lower rates of death from heart disease and diabetes. IT has more hospital beds and doctors per capita than the USA. 65% of French people are satisfied with their health system compared to 40% in the USA, and yet France spends 10.7% of GDP on health care and the USA spends 16% for poorer results. THe French system is more generous to its seniors. Unlike Medicare there are no deductibles, just modest co-payments that are often dismissed for chronically ill. And diabetes and critical surgeries are covered 100%. French also buy supplemental insurance like Medigap for extra expenses like dental and eyglasses. Cancer patients are treated free of charge. Avastin treatments costing $48,000 a year are provided at no charge. France's PMI or Protection Maternelle et Infantile, is rated highly. It is anetwork of thousands of healthcare facilities, that ensure that every mother and child in the country receives basic preventive care. Mothers even receive afinancial incentive for attending their pre and post natal visits. France makes this care affordable by reibursing doctors at a much lower rate. The average yearly net income for doctors is around $55,000, about athird of what doctors in the USA make. But French doctors don't have to pay back huge student loans as medical school is paid for by the state and malpractice insurance premiums are only a tiny fraction of that in the USA. And again the French government pays two thirds of the social security tax for most French physicians- which is typically 40% of income. So the $55,000, is more like $92,000 taking that into account and more like $110,000 when student loans and malpractice is taken into account at US levels. Specialists who have 4 or more years experience can charge what they want, but as one gastroenterologist says, there in an unspoken and undefined limit to what you can cahrge or what is socially acceptable. Yet even in France there is inflation in health care costs that the government deals with through price controls and more spending. The French national insurance system is running increased deficits each year and this is now $13.5 billion, and it has led to higher taxes for employers and workers. ...

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The Indian federal elections started on April 19 and will take place in phases for 960 million voters the largest of any country in the world in mountains in Ladakh to desert around Jaisalmer to the seas around Vizag and Kotchikode. It will take about 6 weeks to complete by June 1 and final results to be announced June 4. The voting is done using portable electronic boxes. It is still one of the great wonders of the world that its crazy no one talks about it and is a demonstration that India has taken the best of its own democratic traditions dating back to the time of the Buddha 563-483 BC. "It may come as a surprise to many to know that in the assemblies of Buddhists in India two thousand and more years ago are to be found the rudiments of our own parliamentary practice of today." This is Rab Butler, who was born in Attock, India and the leading parliamentarian of Britain who set up the post war education system of the United Kingdom, the longest serving minister in Britain from 1941, Home Secretary under Churchill to Foreign Secretary during Suez Crisiz in 1956, under Macmillan as Home Secretary in 1964, the best parliamentarian Britain had to offer in the 20th century. Butler served under Viceroy of India in 1910, and worked hard as India Secretary to pass the India Act of 1935 that gave India its first parliamentary style assemblies and elections. His idea even in the 1920's was for India to gain Dominion dominion status similar to Canada and Australia with a democracy, and was opposed by Churchill. Churchill knew his own weakness and supported Rab Butler as the younger Conservative who would revive the Conservative Party- his 1977 book The Conservatives. Cooperation with Hugh Hugh Gaitskill of Labour Party right into the 1970's made Britain a stronger country, which is how the Education Act 1944 was passed to make free education to all children to age 16.  Much of it broken since 1980 in 50 years of failed Conservative policy leading to the chaos of the Conservatives today, and an effort to spread that chaos to the US. ...

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BBC answers the question "Who is Keir Starmer?" in this report on the new British prime minister. He graduated from Leeds University and studied law at Leeds and Oxford. He joined the Socialist Movement soon after college. He was a prominent contributor to magazine Socialist Lawyer. In school he had joined the Young Socialists, Labour's youth organization. His name is from the first leader of the Labour party Keir Hardie. He is the first from his family to go to college. From 1988 to 2008 he was a practicing lawyer and concentrated his efforts on his work till he was made the Director of Public Prosecutions, the chief prosecutor of England and Wales. Keir likes to talk about this period including prosecuting terrorist gangs as an example of public service. It was late only until age 52 in 2015 that he was given the safe Labour parliamentary seat in north London of Holborn St Pancras. Jeremy Corbyn was elected leader of Labour in 2015. Sir Keir worked well with Jeremy Corbyn during this period and was Immigration Secretary and Brexit Secretary from the back benches. When Corbyn's leadership was challenged Starmer supported this, with Corbyn resigning in 2020 after the 2019 election defeat and being replaced by Starmer.  Then followed a period of fighting the Conservatives and only coming level to the Conservatives in 2021 in popular support. The changes that made Labour more popular and reversing finally the decline of 14 years did not come till 2023 only 12 months before this election. Throughout Sir Keir maintained his composure and moderate positions, distancing himself from Corbyn, to regain the confidence of the British people. When one sees that the votes increase in 2024 is only 2% for Labour in 2024 one realizes the achievement of Sir Keir in transforming Labour to run the country that is so needed today. The slight increase in votes converts into a landslide through careful planning and strategy, but it also hides the fact that the British people have turned to Labour for answers and solutions to the problems they face. Such is the level of confidence that Sir Keir has built over time bit by bit, as he says "brick by brick," something that is clearly in Sir Keir's character and manner of doing things. ...

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This report on Bangladesh politics and economy is from The Guardian July 14, 2019. In 2009 the Awami League party under Sheikh Hasina contested the election in a Grand Alliance with Gen. Ershad's Jatiya Party winning an absolute majority of the seats. Since then Sheikha Hasina has been prime minister through 4 elections maintaining economic growth through the garment industry till the pandemic and disrupted supply chains hit Bangladesh hard leading to its debt burden doubling in 3 years. This led to turning to the IMF in 2022  with reserves down to $23 billion and student protests over lack of jobs. A second wave of protests led to her ouster in August 2024. This report by Derek Brown in The Guardian shows the changing situation in Bangladesh in the 1980's and 1990's after independence in 1971 following the India-Pakistan 1971 war. Zia Khaled of the BNP and Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League were alternately in power with periods of rule by the Army under Ershad contesting elections as the Jatiya party when the two parties failed to govern effectively. This went on from 1996 till 2009 when Sheikh Hasina began what would be four terms in office for 15 years. The economy was improving by 2019. And then Covid hit - the pandemic had serious effects on the foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh, Sri Lankan and Pakistan economies. Only in India with the efforts of prime minister Modi was the economy put on a sustained growth path, corruption prevented by the personal example of Modi's leadership, and a state led development focus achieved using the example Modi had set in Gujarat as its chief minister for 15 years. The rest of South Asia lacked such firm and decisive leadership that is similar in its focus to the transformation of first Japan and China into leading industrialized nations.  In 2022 Bangladesh followed Sri Lanka and Pakistan in going to the IMF. By 2023 the foreign exchange reserves had declined to $23 billion. In 2024 to $19 billion. Garment economy dependent Bangladesh was seeing the effects of supply chain disruption and decrease in earnings from exports. In 2024 student protests on joblessness and frustration at economic prospects led to the ouster of the Hasina government.  ...

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How many jobs will leak out for the fiscal stimulus if a lot of them, like 40% of manufacturing ouput in the US consisting of imported goods, are jobs created in China and Europe or other countries that make the parts for the wind energy and the solar energy products made in the USA? There will be domestic content rules but the international economy is better off if some of the jobs that result from a USA stimulus are offset by the jobs created here from the stimulus packages of Europe, China and other countries. China's infrastructure spending would lead to jobs in the US making some of the infastructure equipment that is exported or in the case of India the nuclear plants equipment that is exported.

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A dwindling supply of basic smaller models and higher new car prices that peaked with shortages in the supply chain in 2022 are still problems in 2023, says this report in WSJ. Car manufacturers and dealers have not increased the supply of new cars. Higher interest rates and higher prices have led to a situation where car leases can run on an average car to $736 compared to $585 2 years before. This report also says new cars will run you an average of $51,000 up 30% over 2 years. The situation is really bad for buyers compared to the situation before the pandemic, after problems in the supply chain and profit seeking by car dealers. One lower income buyer cited here during the pandemic ended up with a lease of a basic Toyota Corolla for $500 with $236 in insurance payments costing $736 a month that was almost as much as her payment on rent, leaving little in savings or for other expenses. A significant part of inflation today can be attributed to the higher price of cars that constitute basic transportation for the large majority of buyers. Profit seeking behavior of carmakers and car dealers makes the situation that much worse as dealers seek to preserve the high profit margins of the last 2 years, that were the highest in a long time. ...

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Everything Everywhere, is a joint venture between T-Mobile and France Telecom. It is the market leader in Britain in mobile phone services since it was formed in 2010. Now Telefonica's O2 UK and Britain's Vodafone will form a 50-50 joint venture to combine their wireless grid so that they can reduce costs, invest in innovation and setup a new broadband LTE (Long Term Evolution technology) network. This will help both companies compete more effectively in the British market. It is not a merger as both companies will continue to run competing services. This type of arrangement is becoming popular in Europe because of the high costs of building one's own LTE network, and makes sense, say analysts, because quality is perceived by customers in terms of speed and reliability of service than simply coverage. O2 sees the potential of reducing cell tower masts by 10% with the new venture.

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Germany's soccer coach Joachim Low spells out his strategy in the upcoming World Cup. Germany is trying to win a consecutive World Cup, a tough feat. Low says luck and outside influences can play a role, though planning will help. He describes the role of the coach in this report as a visionary, looking to the future, the contact person, special relationships with players. Kamilla Jarzina talked to Low for this interview.

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Ford is offering packages with additional incentives, college tution for entire family, packages of upto $140,000 to sign up workers to take buyouts. Its goal is to get 8000 more workers to take buyouts. This is in addition to the 32,000 workers already given buyouts or early retirement.It is putting up job fairs in its plants and mailing each of its 54,000 hourly workers full length DVD " Connecting With Your Future" that shows the advantages of looking beyond the assembly line jobs in auto plants. This suggests that Ford has done its anlaysis and sees things getting tougher in the US auto market over the next few years. The US auto industry will definitely see a smaller market and shrinking sales from now on. Just look at the shrinking sales in the Japanese and German auto industry. Something like this is likely to happen in the US and the attention to sales is going to shift overseas where most of the new sales are going to occur. Companies like GM and Ford will do what IBM and GE are doing shifting their focus to overseas sales in an expanding global economy with more than 50% of their sales from overseas and the US markets playing a smaller role. All this means fewer workers needed in the USA and new workers and plants to be put up overseas in new international locations over the next 10-15 years. Its not just a down cycle for the auto industry, its a big shift and the kind of change that happens every 50 or 100 years as huge macro changes are underway in the world....

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Newly elected president Yoon Suk-Yeol's has promised to invest heavily in new cultural, educational and medical infrastructure in Sejong, new capital planned for South Korea. The work on this site was started in 2007. It is located 125 kilometres south of Seoul. One of the goals of this effort is to encourage regional development, and share the wealth that is concentrated in Seoul with the rest of South Korea. This will also reduce the over-crowding in Seoul. Currently Sejong city has a population of 360,000, with the Ministry of Education and Ministry of the Environment shifted to Sejong. Experts describe this as similar to how Canberra in Australia and Brasilia in Brazil created new regional development in these countries. Today too much is concentrated in Seoul from business to government and culture.

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Economies have fallen back sharply but banks have not had to recognize bad loans as government support and repayment moratoriums have covered a quarter of all outstanding loans for companies and households. As a result there is a strange crisis in which defaults have not happened. Banks have not had to recognize bad loans. The question is what will happen once this government support and other support ends.

The European Central Bank says bad loans in eurozone could go as high as 1.4 trillion euros or $1.7 trillion, if the economies face further setbacks in the second wave of the coronavirus. European government support has been more generous than the U.S. In Italy over 25% of loans to businesses and 15% to households, totaling 300 billion euros were given payment holidays, according to Scope Ratings.

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Eighteen year old Bianca Andreescu, part Romanian, playing for Canada in the U.S. Open Tennis Championships, a teenager with poise and creativity, wins against veteran player Serena Williams 6-3, 7-5. Martina Navratilova, who with Margaret Court is one of the women's tennis great players, describes Andreescu's game as so refreshing and old fashioned because it is the creative game that was played by fellow Romanian Ilie Nastase and players like Rod Laver and John Newcombe from another era. In a highly creative game with poise and variety of shots Andrescu is bringing back the game to what it once was. In today's game, says Navratilova, players stay on the baseline and play similar shots till something happens. Andrescu intelligently and creatively used a variety of shots, making it fun to watch her play.

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An editorial in the WSJ says the decision by the U.S. State Department to reject any claims on the South China Sea are now in accordance with international law and the geopolitical facts. The U.S. State Department stated on July 13 that "Beijing's claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful." The Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague stated this in 2016. The State Department document says "The world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime Empire." The vital waterway is also claimed by the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and it remains an open waterway for navigation by all nations. The U.S. sent 2 aircraft carriers to the South China Sea in July to maintain freedom of navigation.

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Now that the trigger mechanism in the August 2, 2011 Debt Ceiling and Deficit bill is in place- with the trigger calling for 50% of the cuts of $1.2 billion to come from defense spending- thoughts are turning to how and what to trim, and what the overarching framework should be. Former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Joseph Nye, says there is a right way to trim Defense spending. The winding down of the two Bush wars could be used to cut ground forces to 1990 levels, trim the purchases of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, make better use of drones and less costly technologies, and cutting health care costs in defense. This would not affect U.S. national security. What is needed now is also a framework of what the U.S. wants to see happen in its role in the world. Here Nye reminds readers that President Eisenhower decided not to get involved in Vietnam on the side of the French in 1954, saying it was more important to strengthen the U.S. economy. Its important to remember that this decision came only a couple of years after the end of the Korean War. The idea being the U.S. could not police different countries or engage without considering the big picture. In today's context this also means not engaging in nation-building in remote places and in environments that make it not worthwhile to engage precious resources. The U.S. says Nye should consider itself more in Reagan's terms of "a beacon on the hill." Another factor he alludes to is that 70% of the world's military expenditures are now made by the U.S. and its allies. This means there is great potential for burden sharing. Just as the U.K and France essentially combined their resources for achieving overall defense goals of the two countries to accomplish the same things that they did before, the U.S. can do much in combination with its allies. This helps frame policy and solutions for defense. Pearlstein offers policy and solutions for the economy, and Krauthammer offers policy and solutions for deficit reduction in the Washington Post, August 5, 2011, giving an overall picture of what the U.S. and Europe should strive for in coming years....

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Clarence Cammers, 64, one of Paul Ryan's constituents back home in Wisconsin, has a question for Ryan at one of his townhall meetings. Clarence is worried about what would happen to his son Tim, 32, if Medicare cuts went through and his son had to use vouchers for getting health insurance. Ryan's district includes Racine withe high unemployment, and Janesville which was devastated by the closing of the General Motors plant in 2010. Most of the people there are conservative, believe in fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget, but they are also older, working class people. Some of them like Clarence are dependent on their Social Security check to get by from month to month and are not sure they can cope with the kinds of cuts Ryan is proposing. In this story Clarence and Tim discuss the meeting and come to the conclusion that Tim will lose either way- with taxes going up or Tim not getting the retirement that he should be getting. Clarence a life long saver decides he will cut back on his expenses and save $588 from his $1912 monthly social security check for Tim. Tim has severe attention deficit disorder and works for $10 an hour in food prep at a resort....

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Investments made by president Biden and Congress of $1 trillion in manufacturing and infrastructure will take time to go into effect. It is wrong to say this shows limits of this policy of investing in America as it has increased growth, maintained employment levels, and helped America recover from the pandemic. Biden did this for the National good not for Democrats and it was designed to benefit red and blue states like. Its effects will be felt long after the next election cycle in just 3 years January 2028, so that to say that president Trump or Republicans would get credit is an erroneous notion. The next president could come from the opposite party and the long term effects of this could benefit all parties, giving everyone a stake in making it work. The narrow view also overlooks the great benefits from this investment of $1 trillion for America's trading partners and allies in Asia and Europe, the American leadership role in CHIPS and Science as a result, and the respect of the world in the way America has handled its economic affairs. ...

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Mr. Zelensky of Ukraine makes his first official visit to Warsaw, Poland in April 2023. He was welcomed in Poland with an outpouring of support. About 10 million Ukrainians have crossed into Poland since the war began in February 2022. Of this 1.5 million Ukrainians have settled in Ukraine, the rest have gone to neighboring countries or returned to Ukraine. Poland has also opened its market to Ukrainian grain causing unrest among farmers because of lower prices. Poland has a population of 38 million, Ukraine a population of 43 million. These two nations are now the countries that are in the frontlines of the war after Russia's invasion. Other countries that have seen Soviet invasion such as Finland in 1939, Czech Republic in 1968, are now part of the NATO alliance force that faces Russia across a long common border. The Finnish border with Russia stretches for 830 miles through vast forested regions. The US is building a vast warehouse complex in Warsaw that will store US and NATO tanks. As the war continues a year later the resolve of the US and of Ukraine and Poland remain undiminished to the Russian invasion. This is unlike the events of post 1945 when Europe as a whole had seen the effects of 5 years of war and America faced the Soviet expansion into war ravaged Eastern Germany, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Greece. In 2023 the economies of the US and European Union have survived the economic effects of the war and the US is embarking on a huge plan to rebuild its infrastructure and its manufacturing capacity. The US and European Union through NATO remain united to reject any nation changing borders with impunity by force- the issue they see in Ukraine and in Taiwan. On the issue of Taiwan the US, EU are joined by Japan, Australia, Philippines, Vietnam and India. The issue of impunity and allowing borders to be changed by force will remain a strong one for the US and EU, on which there may be little room for concessions because of the principle. In his History of Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present, Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown that no nation by itself or with its allies has been able to use its dominant position to exercize power with impunity without meeting formidable combined opposition of other countries  in Europe. Over 500 years of history France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, have in turn had to agree to give up claims after meeting a formidable opposition of other countries in Europe. This Russian invasion does not appear to be any different.  ...