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Zombrun describes the effect of low interest rates on savings for the bottom half of households in the U.S., the pressure to invest in stocks without the skills and experience of the better educated part of households in the top 20% of households by wealth and income. This resulted in a negative effect, a depletion of savings compared to an increase under a higher interest rates scenario with less pressure to take risks in a volatile stock market. This is the direct cost of the crises in stock and financial markets of 2000 caused by a internet bubble, and the larger crisis of 2008-2009 caused by the bubble in mortgages and housing. The secondary effects of the mortgage price bubble and faulty mortgage securities was in the millions of homeowners who went into foreclosure in 2009-2013, which further depleted wealth and savings of households in the bottom half lacking the experience and skills to navigate this type of housing market. The failure of the Obama administration to stem the foreclosures with practical steps which would have helped not hurt the banking sector, as suggested by FDIC's Sheila Bair and Harvard economist Martin Feldstein in many WSJ op-eds in 2010-2012, added to the erosion of savings and wealth of the bottom half. Minorities in particular were hit hard. A third effect is of communities across America that are feeling the effects of job migration to emerging markets such as China that has been underway as part of the globalization of the last three decades. A fourth effect in the rising cost of education, particularly since 2000, has reduced the opportunities for struggling working class people to enter the middle class and enjoy the higher incomes in precisely the very period when the divergence of incomes between less educated, less killed people and the more educated and better skilled people was taking place. The last two effects were neutral as part of the overall process of emergence of a globalized economy with a premium on more skills and education, requiring action by the government, universities and business for a concerted effort to mitigate in some places the negative effects and enhance in other places the positive effects. The first two effects were man made crises which required managing in constructive and positive ways for the entire American people, taking risks where necessary such as fears about the financial system if foreclosures did not go through. The risks of a long period of extremely low interest rates for savers and the middle as well as working class were poorly understood by the Fed since 2000. A similiar crisis is being faced in Europe with extremely low interest rates. Janet Yellen was only doing the honest thing by acknowledging how far and how different the situation is now compared to the period of three decades following 1945- a question not just of values cherished in America, also of the need for societies to advance through creation of wealth across all sectors of society or regress, as described by Smith in the Wealth of Nations....

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Obama's comments during a visit to Greece about the challenges facing multiracial and multicultural societies such as the U.S. and the people left behind through globalization. He says "we are going to have to guard against a rise in a crude sort of nationalism or ethnic identity or tribalism that is built around an "us" and a "them."  Obama also referred to a global elite "that seems to live by a different set of rules, such as being able to avoid taxes," which he said "fuels a feeling that globalization only benefits those at the top," and leads to a push back from people who feel they are losing control over their future." The problem for workers is that fewer and fewer workers are needed in todays advanced automated factories and manufacturing moves across borders leading to anxiety. The president may have realized the extent of the damage only in the closing days of the campaign in 2016, because of his support for trade agreements without talking in this manner about the lives of workers.  ...

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Brazil, a country of income inequality, is becoming transformed by trade and growth and urbanization into a middle class country- defined as those with a job in the formal economy, access to credit and owership of a car or bike, with a monthly income over $600. According to the Fundacao Getulio Vargas, this part of the population has increased from 44% to 52%. And the PT or Workers Party is still popular, with President Da Silva high popularity.

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Andrew Lownie's book provides glimpses into the lives of the Mountbattens, Edwina and Dickie. Mountbatten was the head of the British government in India in 1946 as negotiations were started with Nehru, Gandhi and Jinnah for independent India. The Cabinet Mission (including Cripps) plan of 1946 was  to setup a federation in India with provinces in A, B, and C categories. A being the Central Provinces, United Provinces, Bombay, Madras and other parts of what is now India, B being the Punjab, Sind and what is now Pakistan, and C being the region of Bengal, what is now Bangladesh and West Bengal.This was rejected by Nehru, Sardar Patel, and the Indian National Congress, leading to  Jinnah's call for action, a civil war, and the partition of India 9 months before the plan date of June 1948, in chaotic circumstances, in a hurried manner. The legacy of that two year period is with us today in the upheavals in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh, drawing the U.S. and western nations also into endless wars. The period 1939-1941 is covered when Edwina's rather aimless life upto that point changed completely with service to war wounded and for the Red Cross. She also visited the U.S. in 1941 when Mountbatten was given command of an aircraft carrier at Norfolk, Virginia, visiting 28 states. Edwina made up for he aimless years by relentlessly pushing herself to be an equal to her husband in the war effort. This has given the couple their fascinating character. It was also a period of great change as the Labour party under Clement Atlee winning a post war election made the decision to end the British Empire in India. The war had depleted British wealth and Britain lacked the resources to continue the Empire in India. The job of managing the transition went to Mountbatten, a naval officer in the Royal Navy, coming in the tumultuous years of 1946-48 with the quick partition of India under Mountbatten in 1947. Mountbatten stayed after independence in August 1947 as the first Governor General of India.  Edwina and Dickie Mountbatten struck a friendship with Jawaharlal Nehru, and this review in The Hindu shows Jawaharlal, Edwina, Dickie and their daughter Pamela having tea at the residence in Shimla, 1946. Nehru's rejection of the Cabinet Mission plan leading to the appointment of Mountbatten as Viceroy was partly based on his idea that priorities for India post independence was modernizing the economy and reducing poverty. Seven decades later the priorities are still the same, following the experience of Japan, South Korea and China at modernizing the economies in east Asia requiring a greatly accelerated effort.    ...

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Reports suggest voter turnout of young people 18-24 was close to 70%. With most of the new voters, about 2 million 19-34 year olds registered to vote in the weeks before the election according to the Electoral Commission, drawn into politics by the simplicity and style of Labor leader Corbyn. One voter says young people voted because Labor did not sneer at them, recalling the negative tactics employed in the campaign and the likability of Labor leader Corbyn because he refused to respond. The National Union of Students and organizations such as UpRising, Hope Not Hate, Bite the Ballot, pushed young people into involvement. The election for students was more about the impact of Tory cuts to education, health, and other services, and about the future for generations to come. Students were deeply upset about the results of the EU referendum. The result is that in places where students were predominant such as Newcastle East and Central, Manchester Withington and Central, Cambridge and Canterbury, the turnout jumped  to give Labor wins in the north of England, and in London. ...

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Prime minister Modi cites the successful Mars mission "Mangalayan" as showing India's technological capabilities and its ability to do things speedily at very low cost. For foreign investors India offers a stable politcal climate because his party has an absolute majority in parliament and controls many state governments, as well as being a democracy with a vibrant and internet connected young generation. A young population with 55% of the people under age 35 makes India the manufacturing powerhouse of the next two decades, said Modi. And the consumer base of over 1.2 billion people an attractive market. It was a rare combination of hands on salesmanship rarely seen ever on television from a prime minister. In one exceptional response about the condition of women, Modi said he personally led his ministers and legislators through Gujarat state's rural areas house to house in 45 degree centigrade summer heat on June 11-13 school opening days. He did this urging parents to send their daughters to school with the slogan "Send your daughter to school, Save a Girl." The result he said was 100% school enrollment in these rural areas for girls. A rare person at a special moment in India's history pushing the goals of development with uncommon tenacity....

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Andy Kessler says this is sucker's rally that took Citi from $1 share to $4 a share, and helped financial stocks. He says its not only ajobless recovery but also a recovery wothout profits. He gives four reasons. Armageddon is off the table but the problems remain of toxic assets and undercapitalized banks no matter what the stress test are saying (more negotiated Ok's than tests), zero yields with interest on savings at 0.2%, Bernanke's printing press with the Fed going all out to get money to the economy fast announcement of inention to purchase $300 billion of longterm bonds, and $750 billion of mortgage backed securities. He says he is not disagreeing with the Fed's policies considering the crisis, but he says he knows a sucker's rally when he sees one.

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Peter Eavis of WSJ cautions about the ability of the Fed to manage things after a flood-the-zone policy of central banking, because such a policy is hard to reverse and create stable effects for the long term.

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A reminder from a veteran of investing about the enthusiasm and euphoria of Mr. Market, the term Benjamin Graham, author of the Intelligent Investor, used to describe the collective emotions of the people in the market during times of overoptimism when prices of shares have overextended and are overpriced. Graham warned of Mr Market in 1945, 1959, and in 1971, each time the market swooned and faltered. Zweig of the WSJ, points out data from Robert Shiller of Yale, the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index jumping from 13.1 to 15.5 since March 2009, in 3 months. Ofcourse, this required aspecial disposition. Being well read and immersed in literature, mathematics and philosophy, helps to view things "from the standpoint of eternity, rather than day to day." And having a sense of detachment, a "certain aloofness," and "unruffled serenity." Graham mentions his internal equipment, his "embracing stoicism as a gospel sent to him from heaven." So Zweig again reminds investors on behalf of Graham as it were, and cautions about the mood swings ocurring lately from despair to a sudden optimism, which he describes as an insecure and desperate need to believe that things have taken a new turn when on closer examination things have only been papered over. Actually when one looks closely the credit tightening has eased by resolute action from the Fed and the Treasury and the Obama administration. But the underlying problem behind toxic mortgage securities remains at large. Private equity is being relied on to fix this problem in agovernment private partnership but no sigificant dent has been made in the toxic securities. Banks have made profits for one quarter, the outlook has improved and bank stock prices got a boost, but underlying problems remain. The loss in GDP this first quarter of 2009 compared to the prior year is 6% which is much better than the the 15-16 % drop in Germany and Japan, and 21% in Mexico. And the steep drops in unemployment are moderating. But large numbers of foreclosures continue with no dent in this in sight. And stimulus expenditures are only slowly trickling through, see the link to this. And the situation can only be described as improving but fragile....

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Mankiw is asked by astudent, why the banks lost 100% of their money if they invested in housing through mortgage securities investments, and housing prices went down only 20%. His answer was the crazy amount of leveraging the banks took on to make higher profits. He points to other changes in teaching Econ 101. The role of financial institutions, the effects of leveraging, the limits of monetary policy when interest rates are already at zero, and the challenge of forecasting. He says economists can't take the blame for missing the crisis completely. In saying this he is saying that economists have only to use what is taught in the classroom, and not use their thinking skills developed through the course of experience in the real world and their intelligence, curiosity and skepticism, all part of an educated mind. It requires some of these skills to tell a bubble when you see one.

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Says El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, the future, which he and his colleagues at PIMCO like to call the "new normal," will be quite unfamiliar. Most people had become conditioned by the experience of what is normal under a finance driven economy, deregulation and globalization. Now he says things will not revert back to their previous states in spite of all the government's efforts to restore the normality. With all the flexibility and regenrative forces at work, these will not be sufficient to offset the disruptions that have taken place. For one thing the growth rate will slow. Annual trend growth rate won't look like the previous number. He says forget the 3% annual growth rate of the last 15 years. The number will be more like 2% or less when the economy recovers. See the link to lower USA growth rates in the future. He sees unemployment high in the next 3-5 years, with a floor of 6%. The financial system in the US will be carefully regulated, and look more like a utility. And the anglo-saxon model of capitalism, which gives finance a central role will be seen worldwide as too crisis prone and risky. With global growth shifting to India, China and Brazil, the shift of wealth and economic dynamism to these countries will accelerate, in a context of lower worldwide growth....

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According to areport by the Manufacurer's Alliance/MAPI USA manufacturing output is expected to decline by 12% this year. Steel production fell 61% in the first quarter over prior year, motor vehicles and parts dropped 41% and semiconductors dropped 40%. Medical equipment production was up 2% in the first quarter, and communications gear production up 6%. THe chief economist of MAPI, Mr Mecksworth, says when the economy turns and depleted inventories are replaced growth will still be slow, because companies will be saving money and paying off debt for many years. In his words the whole deleveraging of the economy will depress the growth rate.

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Eavis of the WSJ says watch the net interest margins (NIM) of banks, as they may not do as well as thought with the government's free money. Margins may be improving According to SNL INteractive banks with over $10 billion assets had net interest rate margin, or NIM, of 3.21% in the first quarter. Well Fargo's declined to 4.16% and Chase' rose slightly to 3.18%. He says the Japanese banks experience with zero interest rates policies shows that these margins can only be improved so much as depositors expect to receive some returns and banks cannot find enough safe borrowers, households and companies, willing to borrow at rates that create high margins.

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The Chicago Board Options Volatility Index has dropped frm a high of 80 last fall around the time of the Lehman brothers collapse, to 30 last week. So has the volatility gone? No one can be sure. Sam Stovall, investment strategist for Standard and Poors does not thinks so. He says history has shown that the rallies in the depths of bear markets are different, because they are almost always followed by a retesting of market lows. The market tends to get adecline after it looks at the fundamentals and any deep seated problems that remain. Stovall's research shows that the market retested going back to 1957, and the average event lowered stock prices 7%, but in the really big downturns like the current one, the S&P went down about 14%, on average. Assuming that the market peaked on May 8 with the S&P 500 at 929, and acorrection of 14% ocurred, the S&P would be at 799. A drop of this magnitude would mean that panic would return, says Stovall.

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The NYT editorial questions the wisdom of letting the banks like JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs repay money to the government to avoid the executive compensation and other government restrictions. THe NYT says it fears that things may unwind, and the banks face more losses on commercial real estate and the effects of rising unemployment would affect economic conditions and the banks balance sheets adversely. The government bailout money was one of several supports that were provided to the banks, and this includes favorable loans fromthe Fed, debt guarantees and incentive payments for modifying mortgages. The whole exercize appears a bit phony as without those supports these repayments would not have been possible. The pay restrictions were a result of excessive compensation that incentified risk taking. The Obama administration's credit reform, says the NYT was an apparent trade-off for the administration's hands off approach to a larger proposed reform that would have allowed bankruptcy judges to help homeowners facing foreclosure. The heavy lobbying by the banks which continues and may not be in the best interests of the country as a whole, and the administration's willingness to let it affect decisionmaking and policy, is an unhealthy sign. ...

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G7 finance ministers meeting leads to setting up joint principles such as ensuring customer deposits are safe, buying bank equity stakes with capital injection, and doing nothing that would harm the interests of other countries in the global economy, but policy actions were left to the individual countries to decide based on the unique circumstances in their country.