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The Obama administration has not given strong support to long delayed democratic processes in Egypt. The Washington Post cites several of the actions that have quashed Egypt's hopes of a return to normal democratic processes. The President and the Secretary of State have shied away from public support for democratic processes, free elections and freedom of expression. There is a failure to link Egyptian President Mubarak's suppression of free expression and of freely contested elections with the $1 billion annual aid to Egypt, much of it going to the military. And the Obama administration has failed to support legislation or resolutions calling for democratic processes and free elections. One of the opposition leaders is a respected diplomat El-Baradei, who headed the UN arms control agency. The US is missing an opportunity to do the right thing and make its voice heard. Not doing this only creates a credibility gap for the US in the Middle East. This comes after Obama's speech to students at the university in Cairo. In that speech he said that the tension between Muslims and Western nations "has been fed by colonialism that denied rights and opportunities to many Muslims, and a Cold War in which Muslim majority countries were often treated as proxies without regard to their own aspirations." Not only is Obama squandering the hopes and aspirations of Egyptians looking for change, but this puts the US as going along with Mubarak, an 82 year old President who will not be around for long. ...

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The majority report of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commisssion says Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, regulators, and several financial institutions were responsible for what was an "avoidable disaster." The report criticizes Mr Greenspan for advocating deregulation and considers the failure to stem the flow of toxic mortgages under his leadership at the central bank as a "prime example" of negligence. The report also says that the New York Fed under Timothy Geithner, now Treasury Secretary, also missed signs of trouble at Citigroup and Lehman. There are 6 Democrats and 4 Republicans on the Commission. The fourth Republican has his dissent, calling policies to promote home ownership, the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a major cause. The panel was hobbled by internal divisions and staff turnover, which have made what should have been a report of major significance into one marred by partisan differences. The majority report itself was heavily shaped by Phil Angelides, the committee's chairman, and it has many literary phrases. Overleveraging was a critical factor in the crisis. For every $40 in assets, the US's 5 largest investment banks had only $1 in capital to cover losses. The banks hid their leveraging with derivatives, off-balance sheet entities and other devices. The banks relied heavily on short-term debt which worsened the crisis. The report also said the Clinton adminstration's decision to exempt over-the counter derivatives from regulation- made in the last year of Clinton's term- also helped set up the ground for later events leading to the crisis....

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Hubbard at Columbia, Scott at Harvard, and Zingales at University of Chicago, go over the options. Bad bank option has the drawback that you have assets that are written down and you put them in a bad bank, but what about all those assets that deteriorate as the economy deteriorates, would'nt they have to be be put in the bad bank too? Banks hold $6 trillion of mortgages and mortgage securities, with mortgage securities of $1.3 trillion. Option two, guaranteeing bad assets has been tried for Citigroup, where taking asset pool of $306 billion which was created, Citigroup absorbed the first $29 billion losses, Treasury and FDIC jointly fund next $15 billion, and Fed holds 90% of remaining losses. The government getting $7 billion in preferred stock with 8% yield. This Citigroup option according to a conservative estimate would cost the government $60 billion after stock warrants received. This would cost for all the banks something like the $700 billion of the TARP, and if bad assets deteriorate further as is likely, could end up costing the government trillions. So this isnt a great option. Hubbard, Scott, and Zogales, say that the option of encouraging banks to spin off toxic assets into separate affiliated bad banks would be a reasonable one. But the government should't guarantee the assets of that bad bank if it poses systemic risk. And banks with negative capital or close to negative capital should be taken over by the government, nationalized, through already established FDIC procedures, such as bridge loans. ...

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Sheila Bair is playing a larger and larger role in this crisis as the Bush administration and Paulson take a series of missteps. She had earlier proposed her own plan for addressing the roots of the crisis which she said are home prices, and preventing risisng foreclosures was the best way to address this. She has offered loan modifications through FDIC run IndyMac bank. Now she speaks up about her disagreement with how the crisis should be handled as little has been done to help homeowners considering the scale of the crisis. Alan Blinder of Princeton university, a former Fed vice chairman has called her the real hero in all this throughout this year as she has had the foresight to suggest action to help homeowners, and has acted vigorously in other areas related to the banks. "Why there has been such a political focus on making sure we are not unduly helping borrowers but then we are providing this massive assistance at the institutional level, I don't understand it." And Sheila Bair went on to say "This agency, with its genesis in the Great Depression, has a sense of purpose now perhaps more than any other agency." Her term as chairman of the FDIC lasts till mid 2011 and her term on the FDIC Board till 2013. With 2 weeks to go for the Presidential election and her term going into the next administration, her voice is increasingly the one that will be heard by policymakers coming to grips with the economy. ...

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Compared to the Fed, Treasury and and American regulators hands off approach as the bubble in mortgages and in financial markets developed, China took some steps to restrain the real estate bubble in China. Starting in 2004 Beijing officials tried to limit speculation in real estate by administrative measures like setting quotas on how much real estate lending each bank could do. In August 20007 bank regulators began requiring larger down payments for second and third homes, and banks began charging linterest rates upto 3% points higher for those homes than for first home buyers. And other things make the Chinese market for mortgages quite different. About half of all chinese buy their homes with outright all cash. And down payments are 30% for first time buyers and 40% for buyers who are getting a second home. And male borrowers term of mortgage ends by law a age 60 and 55 for women whichmeans they build up equity in the home quickly and are less likely to walk away from a home. As far as the banks are concerned no securitization of mortgages has ocurred and banks hold a higher percentage of cash with capital equal to 12 to 14% of assets, compared to international regulatory standards of 8%. Prices have fallen by a third inplaces like Shenzen, and the central bank asked commerical banks to reduce mortgage rates and help borrowers with lower down payments, with the hope that this would stabilize home prices. However with the credit crisis economists expect further decline in home prices....

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Greg Ip tells India's story, piped water for hundreds of millions of Indians, massive increases in road and rail, rapid development of infrastructure, aviation, ports logistics. WSJ graph shows country growth of economies for Japan, China, India, Germany in 2000 and 2020. By 2000 Japan had grown its economy to become about half the size of the US economy with two decades of rapid growth since 1980. China repeated this process with two decades of hyper growth since 2000 to become about 75% of the US economy by 2020. The graphs also show Japanese growth tailing off so rapidly after 2000 in relation to the US economy that it is now only about 25% of the US economy. China is likely to follow the same path as growth slows and with an aging population to become about 35-40% of the US economy by 2040 from 75%. India following the process that happened in Japan and in China is likely to become close to 35-40% of the US economy by 2040 from about 18% today, with the fastest growth over the next two decades for the most populous country in the world. Greg Ip points out what has been achieved since 2014 with the Modi government. Good governance without leakages of public funds dedicated to infrastructure, ease of living, GST one India one tax so that growing pool of funds from taxes fund rapid development with no leakages to corrupt officials,  Swacch Bharat or Clean India, clean water from taps, electricity and cooking gas for the whole population of India with dates for completion. All this Ip calls removal of the shackles that existed for far too long even past 2000 and 2010 when China had vastly surpassed India from its low point in 1980 after Mao and the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. India today is in as much a pace of development as China in the 1990's and Japan in the 1960's, except that it now has the benefit of grasping how development can be done in a way that does not affect climate and health in adverse ways as happened with China's hyper growth -which also led to the tragic loss of manufacturing for workers and communities in the US and Europe due to the economic theories of laissez faire of the Reagan era. Reagan theory for governments not working with industry that were applied indiscriminately during the Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump presidencies for three decades led to shipping manufacturing overseas with no regard for the risks and dangers. What Greg Ip fails to mention is the uniqueness of India that is united by Vedanta, Hinduism and Buddhism for thousands of years, and which keeps the fabric of society together when it is divided by 13 language groups. These 13 language groups are: Hindi 43% of the population, Bengali 8%, Marathi 7%, Telugu 7%, Tamil 6%, Gujarati 5%, Urdu 4%, Kannada 4%, Odia 3%, Malayalam 3%, Punjabi 3%, Assamese 1%, English 1%. It was the vision of the early leaders Vivekananda, Gokhale, Mohandas Gandhi, Nehru, Sardar Patel, that united a diverse country with many languages and cultural variation. And it is this vision of Vivekananda that is creating the Good Governance under Sab ka Vikas, Sab ka Viswas, Sab ke Saath, Sab ka Prayas of today- development for all, with the confidence of all, with the support of all, the efforts of all. Without a disciplined direction based on hard work India could not make it this far or fulfill the aspirations of its youthful population by 2040. ...

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Sperling shows how Biden's economic plan rescued America and set the stage for America becoming the leader in the G7 economies. Gene Sperling is adviser to president Biden, coordinator of the America Rescue Plan, and had 8 years as adviser in 2000 and 2011 after the financial crisis to previous presidents. Here he says the arguments made that the trillion dollars investment spending Biden and a bipartisan group of senators have supported with legislation in Congress were causing inflation have proved not to be true. Inflation caused by bottlenecks in the supply chain, the pandemic shifts, and the Ukraine war, has come down to 3.4% in Dec 2023. By investing in the US economy, in US manufacturing and US jobs, the US under Biden now has the best economy of the 7 advanced economies with higher growth and unemployment below 4% for 24 straight months, lower inflation apples to apples. Sperling says there were 4 lessons learned during his work with the White House. The first to avoid harm to workers whose lives get scarred by loss of jobs. This happened in 1982 and again in 2008 after the financial crisis. Unemployment took 6 years to recover after 2008. And he says the unemployment rate was 15% for younger workers. For the first time economists like Sperling and Treasury Secretary Yellen have grasped what workers feel and have gone through. Sperling cites the devastation to people's lives - the mental health, the divorce, the loss of earnings and depression. The new policy after 2020 resulted in the fastest drop in longterm unemployment ever with black and hispanic unemployment reaching record lows by 2023. A first ever national eviction prevention policy led to 20% less evictions than prepandemic. Second Sperling says 650,000 jobs were lost by state and local governments in the three years after 2008 financial crisis. State and local budget cuts and mass layoffs seriously hit the economy. This time in after 2020 1.2 million jobs were added with the money in the Rescue Plan and lost jobs recovered in one third the time it took in 2008. Third state and local governments need to deal with the harm coming from the downturn and after 2008 the cupboard was empty. Whereas after 2008 only 154 cities and counties got help to tackle commericial blight, effects on communities, foreclosure and long term joblessness in 2020 Biden was able to send direct funding to all 20,000 local governments and 15,000 school districts. This helped tackle learning loss, crime, and address mental health needs. What a difference it made. Lastly one needed to anticipate something unexpected to happen that flattened projections of recovery. In 2011 3.7% growth projected was flattened when Sperling was senior adviser, and this was flattened by Fukushima nuclear disaster, Arab Spring spike in oil prices, and debt default negotiations. This time there was cushion in the plan so that when covid variants and unexpected Ukraine war happened the rescue could withstand and deliver with resilience. Growth was 3.4% average for the first 3 years of Biden's term and unemployment went down from 8% to 4% for 24 months. Coming from someone who had seen mistakes happen and corrected them, who had served three presidents and the last Biden ,this is a story of how Sperling, Yellen, with the help of Powell at the Federal Reserve, and the bipartisan support put together by a US president in Congress , one who has served the country in the Senate more than any other recent Senator and led the nation with courage, patience and determination. ...

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Veering between reckless intervention and doing nothing has led to some of the problems the US faces even today.  Barrack Obama created the hope for Arab Spring at Cairo University in 2009, which he failed to follow up on. Ronald Reagan and his Arab envoy Donald Rumsfeld, Defense minister Weinberger, supported a reckless intervention on the Iraq side against Iran in 1980 after winning the election following the capture of hostages in the American Embassy in Iran. Reagan was reckless in such intervention not understanding what was happening in a religious sectarian and Arab Socialist ideologies war in which US interests were not involved. Le Monde of France recounts how Barrack Obama hesitated to followup on his warnings in 2011 after the Arab Spring. This led to Obama doing nothing in the face of just what he had stated at Cairo University of people "having the ability of speaking their mind and having say in how they are governed," and US intention "we will support them everywhere." Another instance of no action was with a failed state situation and  millions of refugees in Venezuela after a Bolivarist Chavez ideological economic collapse similar in some ways to Arab ideologies Iraq and Syria. US did not follow the Monroe Doctrine on non intervention of foreign European powers on the American continents. Obama's speech and then inaction may be at the root of today's problems of migration and the divisions it has caused. Millions of Syrian refugees left for Greece, Hungary and Germany in 2015-2016. It was followed by Brexit again on migration. And in 2016 migration and the Border in the US election. And again in 2022 and 2024 the Border and migration the big issue in the US election. In a speech at Cairo University in 2009 during a visit to Egypt. Obama said: "I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. These are not just American ideas; they are human rights. And that is why we will support them everywhere." On September 11, 2012 following the death of Libyan dictator Muammar Khadafi and the beginning of civil war in Libya, the Libyan mission in Benghazi was attacked with US ambassador Christopher Stevens killed just 2 months before the US presidential election.  Faced with use of chemical weapons Obama issued a warning to Syrian regime in Damascus- then following the Libyan experience did nothing. Le Monde cites an interview with president Hollande of France in 2015 who expressed his frustration with France willing to act.  Obama underestimated the ISIS in the region says Le Monde, leading to the situation by 2015 of the eastern part of the country linked to the region around Mosul going under ISIS. By 2016 the problem of ISIS was left to next US president DJT to tackle by Obama, a result of the inaction in 2012-2013 on Syria, says Le Monde. And like Angela Merkel in Germany on migration, Barrack Obama simply rationalized his action, with the US and the EU left to tackle the results of these actions.     ...

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Bear Stearns is taken over by JP Morgan Chase at $2 a share, a year ago it was trading at $170 a share. This was arranged with the Federal Reserve agreeing to protect JP Morgan from liabilities on Bear Stearns balance sheet and was done overnight in an emergency basis by the Fed and Treasury to protect the rest of the financial system from scares originating from a collapse of Bear Stearns.

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Condoleeza Rice, personally worked with Ayman Nour and other opposition figures during a visit to Cairo to promote democratic process in Egypt. Michael Gerson who was also present at that meeting in June 2005, writes about it in the Washington Post Feb 2, 2011. This is a really rare instance of a Secretary of State supporting dissent in this manner. She says here that the unsettling and the unfamiliar, the turbulence of a transition to democratic processes is preferable to the false stability of autocracy. Such a false stability can be seething with malignant forces and deep animosities which surely spell trouble in the future, and as Rice puts it, find a footing when autocrats suppress democratic voices. Rice calls into serious question the whole policy of the US to seek stability at the expense of democracy in the Middle East, more than it does in any other region and in sharp contrast to its policies in Eastern Europe. See the link to Karen Elliott House, former publisher of The Wall Street Journal, and a Pulitzer prize winner for covering the Middle East ( Feb. 15, 2011, WSJ), and the link to Elliott Abrams, former deputy national security advisor to President George W. Bush (Wash. Post Jan 28, 2011), for reasons why this is totally out of touch with conditions in the Middle East, and simply sets up problems for the future. The founding principles of 1776 are a better guide to conducting US foreign affairs and can be trusted to serve the country well....

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Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's PML-N party wins 125 of 269 seats in Pakistan's parliament. The Tehreek-e-Insaf party of Imran Khan won 31 seats and the PML-N party of the current president Asif Zardari won 32 seats mostly in Sindh province. Independents won 31 seats and some of these independents are likely to support Sharif in forming a new government. Election turnout of 60% showed a large degree of enthusiasm in this election and hopes for economic revival in Pakistan. The focus of Sharif will be on improving the economy, tackling electricity shortages, and building infrastructure. Sharif promised to pursue peaceful relations with India and Afghanistan, and keep the focus on the economy. Sharif and his advisers are bringing a new deftness in the dealings with the Army, the Pakistan Taliban, saying he would call for a halting of drone strikes, limiting the role the U.S. plays in the region, both positions popular in Pakistan, separating differences with former president Musharraf from the institutional role of the military. Small business owners and large business support Sharif's efforts to tackle electricity shortages, with an estimated loss of $12 billion in idled factories alone. The long period of political conflicts between the military, the judiciary and the political parties have led to neglect of Pakistan's economy, as neighboring countries in Asia surged ahead. The realization that popular pressure for improving standards of living and the economic opportunities are both huge has led to an extraordinary election, and put Sharif at the centre of an important new beginning for Pakistan. ...

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Louis Uchitelle talks to Stanley Moses, an economist at Hunter College in New York, and others, to find out if things will work out as expected with the $700 billion or $800 billion that Obama plans to invest in infrastructure, energy, and other things to generate the 3 million jobs and investment. Will this generate private investment like the Interstate Highway program which ocurred during the Eisenhower days and set the economy on fast growth, or will it generate enthusiasm and jobs for a few years, and just as Roosevelt backed off in 1937 to let private investment pick up he found that it was still too weak to make a difference. The point that he hears from some experts like Moses is that the current times are setting up for a deep downturn, so that is not reminscent of the Eisenhower years when the economy was getting on the growth track after the war years. Its not exactly like the Roosevelt years either, because of the many changes that have ocurred in a modern economy, but in terms of the mood, the collapsing investment, consumer spending and credit and the collapsing growth in emerging markets which hits exports, this is a situation that is not easily reversed with a few years of aggressive government spending. Things have to change in the public's mood and in private industry's initiative to invest that would return the economy to a growth pattern, and this may be a long time coming with so much deterioration happening at the same time....

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Preliminary results show the SPD Social Democrats leading in Germany. The SPD had 25.7% of the vote, ahead of Merkel's CDU at 24.1%. This is the worst showing for the CDU in German elections. The environmentalist Greens Party came in at 14.8% of the vote. The pro-business FDP Free Democrats came in at 11.5%, the far right AfD at 10.3%, and the socialist Left party at 4.9%. Parties calling for big infrastructure investments in Germany with tax increases emerged as big winners reflecting the public mood in Germany after CDU led coalitions with SPD for the last eight years focused on the eurozone crisis and opened migration into Germany, while neglecting much needed investment in broken infrastructure. Both the SPD and Greens are calling for big investments and taking on additional borrowing to do so. They now have a combined 42% of the vote, and 47% when combined with the socialist Left. The Afd with 10% remains mainly a fringe party - and primarily a result of Merkel's decision to open migration from war torn Arab countries which she later reversed, and from from the CDU's failure to tackle social and economic problems of eastern Germany.    ...

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Astoundingly in America 90 percent of people support universal background checks, yet private party sellers are not required to conduct background checks when selling guns. According to a Pew Research Center poll 67 percent of people support a ban on selling assault weapons to civilians, yet no such ban exists. It has taken this long just for president Trump to come out in favor of background checks. Ironically mass shootings have led to higher stock prices for gun manufacturers such as Smith and Wesson, as DW.com points out.  The National Rifle Association, NRA, has five million members and it lobbies hard to prevent gun control measures being passed in Congress. Members of Congress are even rated A to F based on their support for the NRA. Today an estimated 42% of Americans own guns, with 265 million guns in private hands. The NRA sees gun owning rights as part of the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, believing that the right to bear arms is a basic right supported by the Constitution. The NRA over many decades has shown no flexibility in its stance and fierce lobbying has brought down every gun control measure introduced. ...

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This WSJ editorial says president Trump can exit because president Obama never really built support for the Iran Nuclear Agreement of 2015. Stephens in the NYT cites a Pew poll at that time showing only 21% supported it with 49% not supporting it.  This editorial says the deal made by Obama gave Iran $100 billion of sanctions relief and a chance to revive its nuclear weapons program after a 15 year waiting period. It says this increased conflicts and wars in the Middle East. President Trump said in his announcement on May 8, 2018 that the deal never led to "peace, or calm and never will." Another issue of winning popular support is mentioned, as WSJ says president Obama did not submit it as a treaty to the Senate for approval. The Trump administration has its own work now to build support with Europe in fixing the nuclear deal's weaknesses, and winning support from Democrats as well as Republicans for sanctions and new negotiations that help bring a better more peaceful Middle East, so that Iran can focus on lifting living standards and improving the economy, setting a new course. ...

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Early elections in Turkey for parliament and the presidency called by president Erdogan are giving the opposition a chance. The economic growth during the early Erdogan years is beginning to fade with Turkey's rising debt levels, companies with large debt repayment, and the loss of half the value of Turkish currency Lira since 2014.  Muharram Ince of the Republican People's Party, CHP, is able to connect to religious voters from his secular base. The CHP has allied itself with the Islamist SP Party, and the nationalist party Iyi led by Meral Aksener. This alliance is now poised to challenge Mr. Erdogan in the coming election with a different combination of forces loosening Mr. Erdogan's grip on Islamist voters and nationalist voters, by bringing together the nationalist, secular and Islamist in a new way. The focus of this alliance is not dividing the country between Islamist and secular as in recent elections, but more along the lines of keeping some of the basic elements of democracy eroded in Mr. Erdogan's efforts to setup what the opposition leader Mr. Ince calls a "one man regime." As in Malaysia's recent election corruption is also an issue raised by the opposition. ...

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This report looks at the high tech devices that help monitor seniors at elder care facilities and at home in Japan. Japan has a rapidly growing seniors population with three million expected to be over 90 by 2025, and over 65's expected to be one third of the population by then. The government's goal is to keep seniors in their home for as long as possible, and use information technology to support caregivers. Of 92 Japanese startups looking for valuations over $1 billion 25 are focused on health care, with backing not much from VC's (only $32 million in 3rd quarter 2018) but from large companies looking for growth businesses. Patient monitoring devices are getting funding from companies such as Sharp Corp, Canon and others. Devices check details including whether people are at risk of falling out of bed or taking too long to get back from the toilet. Healthcare for elderly in Japan will reach about $300 billion by 2025 and new advances are expected in monitoring seniors- including for such devices as DFree that help patients  know about how to monitor bladders, also used by caregivers to know when to take someone to the bathroom.  ...

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This report in the WSJ gives an inside look at recent events in Venezuela. Venezuela's Opposition was fractured without a common strategy to deal with Mr. Maduro for the last 3 years, until Jose Guiado and a small group called Popular Will decided to take action. On Jan 23, 2019 very few opposition leaders knew that the leader of the National Assembly, Jose Guiado, would declare himself president in front of a crowd of 100,000. Venezuela is enduring horrendous inflation of over 1 million percent for the year. After 3 years of setbacks a small group of opposition leaders decided to take action seeing the National Assembly as reflecting democratic voice in the country. In December leaders discussed strategy and a breakthrough came on Jan. 4th when the Lima Group of 14 Latin American countries and Canada called on Mr. Maduro to hand over power to the National Assembly. Most countries have not accepted the results of the recent election of Mr. Maduro. As recently as Jan. 22 even Mr Guiado was not convinced. It was only after Mr. Mike Pence the U.S. VIce President called to express support that he came around. ...

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Elbridge Colby memo led to slowing of US shipments to Ukraine in July 2025 just as Russia expanded its drone and missile attacks on Ukraine. Leading DJT to resume all shipments and override Colby as he supported shipment of Patriot systems to  Ukraine, with Germany willing to pay for the cost. Who is Colby? Colby 45 years, was made undersecretary of defense for policy in DJT second term. He is the grandson of a former CIA director, attended school in Japan where his father was working at an investment bank, and later at Yale Law School. Colby's view is for the US to focus on Asia, specifically on China and the defense of Taiwan, the Philippines and Japan. He does not favor Ukraine in NATO, sees Russia as a potential partner, and is a Republican who opposed the war in Iraq as a monumental waste of American resources. Some of his views are controversial such as focus only on China when US faces other threats around the world. Colby opposed an attack on Iran and even argued that US could manage a nuclear armed Iran which he has now retracted. ...

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Obama ACA subsidies to go directly to the people through Health Savings Accounts proposed by Republican Senators Graham, Scott and Cassidy in 2017, and again in 2025, and not to Insurance companies. In a post on his social media site DJT tells Congress that the ACA subsidies given directly to people rather than money sucking insurance companies would lead to a better result of people getting their own and better coverage for less money than under Obama type subsidies sent to insurance companies.  Much of Obamacare was done under a campaign from insurance companies and other health vested interests that undermined the original objectives so that however good the original objectives the watered down, disincentivising of reducing unproductive costs, led to a hotch potch band aid result. A common sense approach with the courage to get the right result that works for the people of the Nation to get good health care similar to Japan and other nations in Europe at reasonable cost is not a goal that an advanced nation like the US should see as unreachable or beyond our efforts, skills and wisdom. Obama and Bush failed, Bush in a major error to remove the negotiating power of government Medicare agency with pharmaceutical companies that Democrats failed to push back. ...

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El-Erian points to the risks posed by the long term unemployed in the U.S. He cites the 43.9% of the unemployed or 5.5 millon people out of work for 27 weeks or more. In fact the U-6 measure for unemployment that includes the people who have quit looking for work and parttime workers is abetter indication of where things are. This was an estimated 11% in November 2011, according to Ed Luce in the Financial Times, cited by Klein in the Washington Post.

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In making his announcement to run for president in 2024 president Biden told a trade union audience that for Mr. Trump reviving American manufacturing was merely a punchline- not much happened. Krugman in this NYT report shows that Mr. Trump never acted seriously to directly make that happen. President Biden has passed legislation that creates trillions of dollars of investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, chips manufacturing, electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing technologies. Krugman says in addition to what the government is spending private companies are also planning to invest trillions of dollars. As a result the US is in the process of building its manufacturing base for the first time after decades of neglect under the Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Obama and Trump administrations.  Economists have created a major handicap for investments in manufacturing with theories that are no longer relevant, and by their lack of understanding of the realities of workers and families in the US as manufacturing shriveled. They never figured into their analysis the loss of tax revenue base supported by factories in the US that led to disinvestment in towns and communities across the US. As public services and investment in these communities dwindled without the local revenues to support them. Mr. Krugman lacks the keen grasp of these issues that Biden as the longest serving Senator in the US has. Biden had so much time on the ground observing the situation in Scranton and other parts of Pennsylvania and Delaware, and much of the midwestern US seeing what happens first hand as factories close. Krugman is not able to make the case that manufacturing so truly needs. Yet even Krugman has some sense of the big changes underway in the US that Biden has created that will lead to the renewal of America. ...

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A clean break from commissions of every sort is needed in India, without that Mohandas Gandhi's work and legacy is lost, the opportunity of modernization of India and the economy on a scale surpassing China using the latest technology and huge investments in infrastructure is lost.  Lyrarc has a pledge in India -The Way Forward for every young person in India to take. The future of infrastructure building, ease of living, modernization of a nation of 1.4 billion depends entirely on this. Every penny, every cent, every rupee goes into infrastructure building to create a modernized nation and economy similar to the US and Europe. The situation with "40% commission" in Karnataka and its impact on the recent outcome in the southern Indian state of Karnataka is shown in the Indian Express. Indian Express analysis shows that the ruling party did well in coastal Karnataka and poorly across the rest of the state in comparison to 2019. It happened even in Gujarat but was corrected in time by Mr. Modi.  This analysis in Indian Express says the reason the vote share of 36% led to 104 seats in 2019 and only 66 seats in 2023 is that a lot of the votes were concentrated not all over Karnataka as in 2019 but only in Old Mysore and in Bengaluru, and also in south Karnataka where it cut into JDS party votes without winning seats. Divine providence offers an opportunity for everyone to reject commissions 100%. Gandhi's Hind Swaraj 1910 needs that kind of committment today to surpass that made in 1931 during the Salt March against British rule, to build a modern nation and modern economy by 2035 comparable to the best in the US and Europe. ...

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15th Civil Servants Day in a country of 1.2 billion people where the role of civil servants is critical for development. This is what the prime minister Mr. Modi had to say to civil servants-"Taking the dreams of the common man to level of resolve is the responsibility of the system. The Sankalp or resolve should be taken to siddhi or completion and that should be the goal for all of us. We should be there to handhold at every stage in this journey of sapna or dream to sankalp to siddhi." In addition it is imperative "that the schemes and governance models be developed in the global context and be updated regularly," says prime minister Modi. He also emphasized the importance of sharing the experiences of the award winners with others on weekly basis. Also important experimentation where one scheme is chosen for implementation in a few districts and the experience discussed in next year's Civil Service Day. In this way enlarging on successful experiments that has proved invaluable for electricity supplies and renewable energy. This kind of culture being important to make progress. The Hindu provides this list for winners of the PM's Awards for Excellence in Public Administration in categories below Innovation- Gujarat Education Department, Agriculture Department Ladakh, Department of Land Resources West Champaran Bihar, Bongaigon Assam Seamless end to end service delivery without human intervention- Karnataka, New Delhi Municipal Council PM Svanidhi Yojana- Varanasi UP, Anantnag Jammu and Kashmir One district-One product -Darbhanga Bihar, Siddharthnagar UP Poshan Abhiyaan -  Kumuram Bheem Asifabad Telngana, Datia Madhya Pradesh Khelo India-  Churu Rajashthan, Bishnupur Manipur   ...