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The retirement age in France is much lower than other European countries. As people live longer and pension system finances are strained retirement ages are being increased. In France the retirement age is 60, and dates back to the Socialist president Francois Mitterand in the 1980's when the Socialists and the unions strongly supported a retirement age of 60 and a 35 hour work week. Socialist party former general secretary, Francois Hollande, calls changes "unjust reform." The Sarkozy government is treading softly by making a gradual change with the legal retirement age increasing by 4 months per year starting in July 2011, till it reaches 62 by 2018. The pension deficit is forecast at $40 billion a year for 2010. People in taxing jobs or in difficult occupations are exempted. By contrast Germany as plans to change the retirement age from 65 o 67. Britain and Italy have set this at 65.

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Simon Nixon looks at the different scenarios for Greece as it faces snap elections on Jan. 25, 2015. He makes the point that unlike the situation in 2012 Greece's debt after considerable adjustment with creditors now looks sustainable. The nominal debt to GDP ratio remains high at over 170%, yet says Nixon, the long term average interest cost is about 2.3%. He even cites hedge fund Japonica Partners analysis showing Greece's debts valued on a discounted cash flow basis under international public accounting standards at a debt to GDP ratio of about 18%. Alexis Tsipras's left coalition if elected is likely to moderate its demands and continue with EU programs for Greece to restore confidence in financial markets and lower the interest rates on debt- including removal of special tax treatment exemptions and pension reforms. Support for EU membership remains high in Greece and Tsipras is likely to change his program to adapt just as Samaras and New Democracy Party did when it was elected....

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The 2016 presidential election campaign is expected to lead to $10 billion in campaign spending. The Federal Election Commission is unable to take any action against campaign abuses with the commission deadlocked 3-3, with 3 Democratic members and 3 Republican members voting strictly along party lines and seeing any move by the other side as partisan. The members are not even on talking terms. Republican members see the issue in terms of First Amendment rights to free speech. The Supreme Court's decision in the 2010 Citizens United case affirmed First Amendment rights of free speech and unlimited fund raising to conduct election campaigns. The Supreme Court ruling considered corporations as associations of individuals and therefore entitled to First Amendment rights of free speech. The Court suspended the "electioneering communication" ban imposed by the Bipartisan Reform Act of 2002, allowing corporations and unions to engage in free speech electioneering during election campaigns.

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Matteo Renzi, 37, the mayor of Florence, wins 35% of the vote in primaries for the centre left Democratic party in Nov. 2012. This was a challenge to party leader, Luigi Bersani, who won 44.9% of the vote. Renzi appealed directly to younger voters.

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Even with the best US effort heroin production increased to 9000 tons in Afghanistan says this report in The Economic Times. Indian coast guard and Gujarat anti-terrorist squad size large amounts of heroin at Mundra port and along the Porbandar coast.  Afghanistan has a 2000 kilometer border with Iran and another 2000 kilometer border with Pakistan. There is now increased risk of this activity along India and Sri Lanka's coastlines and borders, says the Economic Times. Much of the colonial period was marked by British traders use of opium from Bengal and other parts of India in illegal activities in China through Chinese ports for sale of opium -leading to the Opium wars in 1850 with China's feudal monarchy and eventually to China turning to the CCP. This was conducted under the British East India Company and condoned under the British Empire- making it one of the worst activities of colonial powers in history. Some of the same activities are being conducted and condoned by countries in the region. A multinational allied task force Combined Force 150 keeps track of the oceans in the North Arabian Sea and in the Horn of Africa. More naval forces are needed from India, the US, UK, Australia, Japan and other countries to keep the oceans safe and clear, and protect people in the region. ...

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About half a trillion dollars in business investment was lost as a result of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and its lingering effects in 2010-2012. Irwin points out that business investment in equipment and software increased by 8.9% in 2010 and 11% in 2011, but this was off lower numbers after the financial crisis of 2012. And business investment has declined in the last 3 quarters, with a 13.2 % drop in durable goods orders for August 2012 driven partly by a drop in aircraft orders.

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Policy on China in the second year of the DJT Administration- shift from adversary positions to cooperation. A shift in policy after the meetings with Chinese leaders Xi and Wang Yi at Busan, South Korea in 2025. WSJ Analysis looks at what happened in the first term of DJT, the Biden Administration that followed and in 2025 in US-China relations and how the posture changed, how Xi and his team built rapport with DJT and his team over the tumultuous period in 2025. US turned to Xi in getting Iran to the table for negotiations in Islamabad meetings after the month long effort to take out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program infrastructure. This was arranged in the early hours of Tuesday April 7th 2026. Throughout the US air campaign in Iran China pursued the policy it had set at Busan of not letting it affect US- China relations and the DJT visit to Beijing believing it sets the basis for the future course of US- China that affects the whole world beyond regions such as the Middle East where little headway has been made in bringing about peace. China US, EU, India, Brazil, Latin America, Africa, Indonesia, make up most of the world's population and China remains focused on ensuring the US and China can through their cooperation maintain peace in the world overall. This is reflected in this statement of China's Foreign Ministry on Busan meeting as the beginning of something new and big for the world- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world. And that is an important secret to our success. China will further deepen reform across the board, expand opening up, and promote higher-quality economic growth while achieving an appropriate increase in economic output, and advance well-rounded human development and common prosperity for all. This will also expand the space for cooperation between China and the United States." This relates to China's worst fear, worst nightmare - that before it can become a fully developed economy for 1.4 billion people it would find itself in the situation that faces Japan of an aging society and weak growth something Japan faces as a fully developed economy much smaller of 120 million people. Japan per capita GDP is at $36,000 2.5 times China's at $14,000 and about a fifth of Germany's at $64,000, about a seventh of the USA at $92,000. So that if China does not continue along the path of development it has followed since 1990 working with the US and EU it faces the prospect of losing forever the prospect of joining Japan and fall into lower than middle income status when large parts of the interior of China a third of its economy that is rural are still living in poor economy status with per capita GDP of $3500, which is 8% of the GDP per capita of the poorest state heavily rural state of Mississippi in the US. Even Shanghai and Beijing with about $32,000 per capita GDP are only about 58% of the per capita GDP of Louisiana in the bottom one third of US states. Xi Wang Yi, Lifeng are doing what China must do to compete with advanced US and European economies and Japan- continue to work with the US on the development model that has worked the best for China since 1990. It is not about supplanting anyone China is serious when it says here- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world." ...

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The Washington Post survey of 1200 readers on how the Republican healthcare plan of Speaker Ryan and the House of Representatives looks to them, how it affects them in their lives. Here Somasekhar of the Post gives the stories of 5 Americans. Some see the prospect of losing their insurance under the Republican plan even as they reach an older age, others a smaller segment says the Post, whose premiums jumped under the Affordable Care Act say they faced high premiums and high deductibles. The Post says the large majority of opinions have expressed anxiety over the proposed Republican Ryan House plan for healthcare. One of them is an uninsured poor farmer, Mr. Woosley,  income about $18000 who gained benefit from expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act,  one Mr. Smith, 32 years, a personal injury attorney who faces paying $10,000 if he did not take insurance and $10,000 if he took insurance because of high premiums so a wash either way deciding to do without it, one a tech worker Mrs. Powers, 62 years, income $22,000 on year and $4000 the next, from middle class during the tech boom but facing fewer opportunities and uncertain income from part time work, hit by the deep recession facing fewer opportunities as she gets older and now the prospect of losing insurance without government subsidies, one who is from the middle class who sees little benefit from the Affordable Care Act and is forgoing insurance because of the high premiums yet faces a penalty for not being insured under the ACA, another Mr. Blanchard, 52 years, is from the middle class, a computer programmer who lost his job in downsizing, earns $100,000 as a consultant self-employed, pays $767 in premium a month and relies on the Affordable Care Act which helps him gain freedom from working at a company that could downsize,  another is a middle class programmer Mr Riffle,age 44, and his wife, who does not qualify for a subsidy with a $71,000 family salary from working 4 jobs between himself and his wife- this person finds it too expensive for his salary to buy insurance $900 a month and $14,000 deductible under the Affordable Care Act. His views are worth listening to as they go to the crux of the problem- he says he may not be any better with the Republican plan. He sees the real problem as the high cost of health care in the U.S. and the only way this can be fixed is for members of Congress to be asked to use the insurance exchanges they create. If this sample is representative it shows that there are real problems with both the Affordable Care Act and the Republican plan, that the high cost of health care the problem lurking behind every plan that does not squarely address this, and till that happens and members of Congress experience what ordinary people face, this problem can never by fully solved.   Woosley, Smith, Powers, Blanchard, Riffle, and their personal experience is at the crux of what is right and wrong  with the Affordable Care Act, and also with the new Republican plan of Speaker Ryan and the House of Representatives. For every Woosley, Powers and Blanchard who benefit, there is a Smith and a Riffle who are indifferent or are affected by the high cost under Affordable Care Act and the current system of medical care with its high cost. The Affordable Care Act does not  tackle high cost, for that to happen the culture in America that makes it possible and acceptable to charge high prices must change. Another problem apart from bringing health care costs is that any solution needs to have the whole country behind it. If the notion that all people are entitled to basic health care is to stand, the whole country needs to believe it as they do in countries like France, Britain, Germany and Japan. If this has to be made a workable proposition health care has to be offered at a price that makes this possible to achieve, and that idea also needs the deep and broad sense of support from the culture in America similar to that in these other countries. Until that happens politicians in America will get elected and turned out of office in turns on issues such as health care, based on which side they take and which problems they choose not to face squarely and responsibly. ...

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In an environment where macroeconomic forces play a great part in the stock and commodities markets, the traditional investing theories and tradeoffs between risk and return are called into question. At a time when many Americans have taken a hit in their 401 (K)'s from the last crisis and are still highly leveraged there is concern about the advantages of taking on additional risk for uncertain and precarious returns.

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Lizette Alvarez and Manny Fernandez provide this rivetting account of two Hispanic Senators in the U.S., both with Cuban backgrounds, one growing up in the Miami area around Cuban Americans, and the other in all white communities in Texas. Marco Rubio identifies with his Cuban background, but has distanced himself from immigration reforms he advocated that would provide undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship. Cruz does not identify with his Cuban American story, as much as he identifies with an immigrant story- his father left the Cuba of dictator Fulgencio Batista when he fled to the U.S. in 1956- and would tighten immigration enforcement and controls. Hispanics in Texas say they do not identify with Ted Cruz, who even changed his Spanish sounding name to Ted follwoing the advice of his Irish American mother. Cruz also attended Ivy league schools- Princeton and Harvard Law School, while Rubio took on large student loans to finish his law degree. Hispanics across the U.S. are shown as distancing themselves from the 2 candidates, expecially the large Mexican American community which has traditionally voted for Democrats....

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This report in the WSJ gives the background and positions taken by Patriarch Krill of the Russian Orthodox Church, and his support for the war in Ukraine as part of Russian lands nationalism. Russian lands nationalism is an idea that comes from the beginnings of the Russian version of Christianity that had its origins in Kviv Ukraine in the 10th century. Patriarch Krill has had a varied role questioning some some state policies and then backing off and supporting the state says WSJ. In 2011 patriarch Krill stood up for protesters critical of manipulation in parliamentary elections that year. Patriarch Krill grew up in the years of Soviet rule and was 24 in 1970 when he began his work in the church. He was rector of a seminary in Leningrad by 1984 and after being critical of the Soviets and war in Afghanistan was sent to Smolensk says this report in WSJ. After he returned he worked with the Soviet state, and after voicing concerns in 2011 about parliamentary elections described as manipulated he has supported the Russian state as it becomes assertive about Russian lands nationalism. To understand the Orthodox Church in Russia one has to know its presence in the post Soviet period. About 63% of Russians belong to the Orthodox Church. It also includes Ukrainians. After Crimean invasion by Russia the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that makes up one third of the Russian Orthodox parishes was recognized as a separate church by Patriarch Bartholomev of Constantinople. Patriarch Bartholomev and Pope Francis the two leaders of the eastern and western churches in Constantinople and Rome have been critical of Patriarch Krill and his support for the war and the idea of Russian lands nationalism. Since the war some parishes in Russia have signed a letter opposing the killing of brothers in Christ and one parish leader was fined $500 for his statements. There is now intense debate among Russians about what this war means in bringing conflict on brotherly peoples about their preferences in 2022 for aligning with Europeans in the western part of Europe. For most of Europe in the 21st century there is a big change, in the countries near the Baltic sea in Northern Europe, in countries in the middle of Europe, in Eastern Europe, the 21st century is seen as a time when states and peoples are making their own choices about freedom and what their preferences are particularly the young people. They no longer understand or conform to ideas of the earlier period or centuries. And this is what has made Ukrainian young people oblivious about what Russian lands nationalism means and its relevance today. Buddhism is today not prevalent in South Korea a democratic state and in China a Communist state in the way it existed for centuries. For it to be relevant people need to begin to believe in it as in Japan or Sri Lanka or Thailand. In the 21st century young people are making different choices and this may well be where the Ukraine war shows that people's choices count particularly in the 21st century, and it has little to do with the west or the US or NATO or even Russia. ...

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The basic outlines of new health care legislation takes shape as Senators Dodd and Kenedy come up with a plan that scales down subsidies to low-income people to buy insurance. Attached to their revised outline is a budget office analysis thatprojects the plan costing $611 billion over 10 years and with expected changes from the Senate Finance Committee would cover 97 percent of all Americans. And earlier plan received much criticism because the Congressional Budget Office estimated its cost at $1 trillion over 10 years and left 37 million Americans uninsured. In addition there is the revised Medicaid expansions for aid to the poor that would add a couple of humndred billion dollars to the total tab. The administration's goal is to keep the cost down to $1 trillion over 10 years. The legislation as it stands includes the public option which is designed to control insurance costs. Mr. Obama said this week that "the public option would keep insurance companies honest." Employer mandated insurance is part of the Kennedy-Dodd legislation proposal. Employers with 25 or more workerswould have to provide coverage or pay the government an annual fee of $750 for each full-time worker and $375 for each part-time worker. The government pays the startup costs for the public insurance option as a loan to be repaid, and premiums would make the option self-sufficient....

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This is an indepth article on Donald Trump's financial holdings, looking at the debt that Trump has built up in his real estate dealings, by Susanne Craig of the NYT. To get a detailed look of this the NYT inquiry into the holdings engaged RedVision Systems, a national property information firm to search publicly available data. Much of Trump's business is shrouded in mystery. But it is well known that Trump has used debt to build his business in a way that is not considered good practice in business, having led to three bankruptcies. Trump says he "is the king of debt." And "he loves debt." The recovery of real estate values during a rescue effort for the country's financial system also helped Trump tackle debt in a way that was not available to other entrepreneurs who suffered from the oil price collapse- one of them McClendon also used debt aggressively and his business collapsed leading to suicidal car crash. You can love excessive debt only if the government supports you with some sort of financial guarnatee misplaced, or you are lucky to get away with it- just ask McClendon. The irony is that the rescue of the financial system led to the low interest rates that hurt savings of the middle and working class, and the lack of help to Main Street in the home foreclosure crisis also hurt the same people disproportionately. The Obama administration policies in this regard rescued the very same business interests such as the New York real commercial estate symbolized by Trump, that are now appealing to those hurt as president Obama worked to let the financial system recover. The intention was never to support excessively overleveraged banks or overleveraged real estate built on debt, but in reality this is what happened. A nation cannot run its financial affairs in this manner of overleveraging to extract high profits that an investment bank such as Lehman or Goldman Sachs does, or a real estate company such as Trump's does- if regulators let them do this. Normally after the financial crisis of such dimensions that it shook the world economy in 2008-2009 leading to fears of a collapse as happened in the 1930's, the same faces would not still be there. But this is a strange period or a transition period where things are being sorted out, and the same faces Blankfein at Goldman Sachs and Trump in New York commercial real estate are with us.  And though the bashing of Goldman Sachs connection to Clinton is evident in the campaigns of Trump and Sanders, the bashing of Trump real estate and finance companies with its overleveraging and bankruptcies is evident in the campaign of Clinton against one posing as a representative of the working class. John Paulson who benefitted by shorting mortgage securities that caused the financial crisis of 2008 is on Trump's top economic advisory team, including the hedge funds and financial interests on Wall Street that Trump is saying support Clinton. No one, not the NYT or WSJ, can answer this, its just the paradox of today's situation. Hillary Clinton can say she has learned her lesson, with her Methodist upbringing and her own supporters such as Robert Reich and others, and break with the past especially as it in no way contributes to her success as president, not one bit. In fact rebuilding the middle class and infrastructure require entirely different connections and views on life, a different imagination.  Trump has billions of dollars and a real estate business that is so complex that even the NYT and property information firms can only say that in the end it is shrouded in mystery. Companies owned by Trump says the NYT from this inquiry have debt of $650 million. Other Trump business activities through 3 passive partnerships owe an additional $2 billion. It is a lot easier for Hillary Clinton to put the speech fees behind her as they have little to do with what she is as a Methodist and a proponent of improving women's lives, than it is for Donald Trump- for whom his business is everything that he is including his art of the deal- to reject who he is. ...

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Lane Florsheim's interview with Melinda Gates.  Melinda Gates is reinventing herself at age 60 years. Born in the 1960's  and as part of the Gates foundation she now faces both the opportunity and the challenges ahead of her new effort with The Pivotal foundation, which replaces the effort she made at Gates, the launch of a new book to share her experiences with panic attacks and coming to terms with her own inner voice that said start over.  Here she describes her life in Seattle that starts with a cup of coffee at 6.30, and a chance for reflection in the early mornig hours. She goes out for a walk by 7.00 with three trusted friends she has gone out for walks for 20 years. Melinda describes her new life with her love of kayaking and her chance to do this without being recognized in Seattle. Her three children and her grandchildren live in the East coast. She likes poetry and instead of the frequent travel abroad in her first life, in this second life she can devote time to her passion for making life easier and better for women. She describes meeting women in Louisiana and other states and seeking solutions for better women's health and mental health. She has an objective view of the times, and faith in American democracy, and her new role in the discussions as her own self as a woman. ...

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Chancellor Merkel tells the newspaper "Sachsische Zeitung," that she sees a follow through on policies on refugees after reestablishing control over EU borders as one of the lessons learned from last years refugee crisis. This has reduced the flow of refugees and Merkel says the process of deportation of non-German nationals who had no residency permit had to be done rigorously and speeded up.  Having said this Merkel defended her policy on refugees as "coherent," and was clear about it- "I do not see a change of course, but coherent work over many, many months." Responding to Pegida and anti-immigrant sentiment in Dresden, Merkel said it is important to remember the lessons of history, that "we are the people" slogan used by the far-right is misplaced, that in a free society "we all are the people."

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Voters overwhelmingly oppose the tax increase in 2015 taking the consumption tax from 8% to 10%. The Abe government plans to postpone the tax increase and call snap elections in December 2014. Two thirds of people surveyed said they did not see why new elections are needed. For prime minister Abe this is an effort to win a vote now rather than later when the opposition is weak. In 2012 elections Abe won 295 of 480 seats in the lower house of parliament. LDP party officials say even if this dropped by 20-30 seats it would be a win for Abe reaffirming that his economic policies are taking Japan in the right direction towards growth, and extending the length of his mandate. They point to growth in tourism, and the addition of 1 million new jobs. Further action to stimulate the economy would reduce unemployment further and end Japan's deflationary tendencies.

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Problems that may be unfixable for the Afghan national army, and for which no increase in foreign trainers could make a difference. About 3% of the army recruits are from the Pushtun south, the main part of the country, where the Taliban are strongest. Officers from the northern areas have to use translators in the Pushtun south, a bad sign. And there is a shortage of officer talent. Gereral Caldwell who is working on training the army, says he was appalled at the emphasis on quantity not quality- the Afghan army has reached 134,000 in numbers. The ratio of instructors to recruits ranges from 1 to 80 to 1 to 466. It will cost $11 billion to maintain compared to an estimated $1 million per American soldier each year. Even if training problems are fixed, having 3% of recruits from the major Pushtun part of the country where the fighting is being done, simply makes the overall problem unfixable. See the group - Defense Department biannual report on Afghanistan, for related insight.

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John Taylor looks one step ahead of the March 2012 Greece bailout and sets up the most plausible scenario for the future. He says the risks of contagion were always exaggerated from the beginning- a planned default or restructuring of debt such as happened in Argentina in 2001, does not have the contagion risks associated with a chaotic and unplanned default as in Russia in 1998. Predicability in policy makes a huge difference, says Taylor. The European banks which stood to lose from writedowns exaggerated the fears of contagion- a process that always occurs for people who are adversely affected by writedowns- resulting in top officials in the European Union delaying the unavoidable serious restructuring. It was not until Chancellor Merkel handed Charles Dallara, who negotiated for the European banks, a note stating a demand for 50% bondholder writedown, on October 27, 2011, at EU headquarters in Brussels, did any serious writedown of debt begin. Merkel told Dallara: "this is my last offer." The July 2011 summit by contrast had only a 10% bondholder writedown in the agreement, when insolvency not illiquidity was the real issue. Walker Forelle and Meichtry, give a detailed account of what happened in the Wall Street Journal, Dec. 30, 2011. The important thing for Greece, says Taylor, is for what the IMF calls "growth enhancing structural reforms" - greater reliance on private markets, incentives, rule of law. He says this bailout won't work because IMF growth forecasts do not reflect the rapid shrinking of the Greek economy. Antonis Samaras, leader of the major opposition party, is in favor of pro-growth measures and has stated his desire to change the agreement. The 130 billion euro bailout provides 90 billion euros for recapitalizing Greece's banks, and financing the budget. This puts Greece in a situation where the political leaders win voter support by discarding the conditions from the Northern EU nations and come with a plan that is better suited for Greece. The EU in this scenario would cut off further bailout funds to Greece. Taylor sees this as the better outcome for Greece than the current situation, which leaves Greece no hope for growth, and also for the EU by getting out of bailouts that have little prospect of working. It would be difficult but doable for Greece says Taylor, because interest payments would be low and Greek banks would be recapitalized after the current March 2012 bailout. ...