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The peaceful transition in Zambia as Michael Sata wins the election. Sata's party won the election with 43% of the votes compared to Hastings Banda's party's 36%. The outgoing president Hastings Banda's party had been in power for two decades. This is a remarkable peaceful transition of power after disputed elections in the Ivory Coast, Zimbabwe and Nigeria. Sata's support came from the urban young, jobless people and the labor unions. He was critical of mining investments by western companies and China for paying low wages, and campaigned for higher tax revenues from the mining industry. This is a remarkable transition and a good example for future elections in Africa. Recent elections in the Ivory Coast led to a transition that had to be enforced with French support.

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The results of a Wall Street Journal analysis of 11 countries shows the risk of a stretched out period of stagnation in the economies of the USA, the UK and Japan. Jobs is a critical area in which this is apparent. In Japan employment is down 3.3% from December 2007, in the UK 2% lower, and in the USA 4.8% lower from December 2007. U.S. household debt is down from 131% in early 2008 to 122%, and poses a big burden. In the UK the household debt is larger than in the USA. And Japan's deficits are over 200% of GDP, creating an overhang that depresses jobs and growth. S. Korea, Taiwan and Australia have benefitted from the recovery since 2008 in China, India and the rest of Asia.

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President Obama picks Dartmouth College president, Jim Yong Kim, as the U.S. choice for president of the World Bank. Kim is a physician who co-founded Partners in Health, a nonprofit organization for providing health care to the poor. He was a former director of the Department of HIV/AIDS at the World Health Organization. Working with Partners in Health in Lima, Peru, mid-1990's, he helped establish a large scale treatment program for drug resistant tuberculosis. Such programs are being promoted in 40 countries since then. Under the leadership of Mr. Zoellick, the World Bank provided $57 billion in assistance to low and middle income countries in 2011. About $90 billion was raised in a fund to be used for aid to the poor in developing countries, including China and India.

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Internet penetration in India is increasing rapidly. India had 71 million internet users in 2009 by one estimate. Current estimates are of 80-100 million internet users. India's internet penetration as percentage of population of 5% is low compared to China which is at 28.9%, Brazil at 39.2%, and Mexico at 28.3%, according to figures from the International Telecommunication Union. Analysts expect the launch of third generation broadband networks will help increase internet use in India. One study done by investment bank Caris & Co. shows internet use growing to 180-200 million users by 2015. Most of the major internet sites are in news, job-search or match-making. Internet retail is just beginning to grow with online purchases of $1.4 billion in 2010 going up to $5 billion in 2012.

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This WSJ editorial summarizes the main reasons Republicans and many others object to increase in U.S. contributions as the IMF increases its resources under a new plan. The reforms increase the influence of Brazil, China, India, Turkey and other countries in the IMF governance. Also at issue is European influence that the U.S. sees allowing risky loans to countries such as Greece, where rules were relaxed under EU influence during the eurozone crisis. This topic of IMF reform will be coming up in the G 7 meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Dec 2014 at Sydney, Australia, with the new U.S. IMF representative defending U.S. interests. The case for the reforms was presented in WSJ by Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, and is part of the link.

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Money from the mainland is fueling a real estate bbubble in Hong Kong. One 5 bedroom apartment with 6000 square feet sold for 56.5 million dollars or 439 million HK dollars. Hong Kong pegs its currency to the dollar and links interest rates to the dollar, With the money pouring into Hong Kong banks mortgages areavailable for 2.05%, with interest rates going up in the USA this would change making payments much higher. Hong Kong plans to release some of the manufacturing space that it has reserved for developing new industries in new fields and technologies- these are areas used by plants that shifted to China for lowwage labor in the 1990's. In Hong Kong the government owns all the land and leases it to developers for 99 year leases.

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The German car market has shrunk 19% vs 1992. Its at 3.148 million new car registrations in 2007, a drop of 9.2% from 2006. The new car market is declining in both Germany and Japan which is why we should see more emphasis on Eastern Europe and Russian market in the European area, and on emerging country markets especially in Asia in the years ahead, a process already underway. Foreign car makers from Europe and the USA will face competition from the likes of Cherry in China and Tata in India with aggressive price competition. The most effiicent and innovative producers will survive because even though these are emerging markets the buyers will be looking for the best design, quality and technology, and will have good knowledge of prices and what is offered by competitors.

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The focus is shifting from the oil majors to the companies in the oil field services sector, companies that supply the oil companies with oil field services. Deepwater oil field drilling rigs some of the most modern computer controlled ones run $650 million are in great demand and one Norwegian supplier of drilling rigs has anticipated the demand for advanced deepwater drilling rigs which the major oil companies had not invested in and is now in a position to charge $600,000 a day for the advanced rigs he has ordered 3 years ago as the deepwater drilling took off in places like offshore Angola. Earlier this Norwegian had anticipated the shift to long haul shipping of oil to places like India and China from Iran and offshore Africa.

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What is the role of a small wine importer of European wines who supplies local stores in NY city, and other similar business, in a issue of $1 trillion trade imbalances that destroyed American manufacturing and millions of jobs as large US business corporations shipped manufacturing to China? The trade deficit with China has led to loss of 3.8 million jobs, 75% of them or 2.9 million in manufacturing.  Go back to 1990 and Beijing was a city of bicycles not cars. If Beijing shifted to a open economy and simply imported products from the US and Europe as it had done since 1700 it would have remained a backward agricultural economy. It took 20 years of focused effort after 2000 for China with US technological assistance to excel in manufacturing, as the US had done after 1920. Can or cannot the US excel in Manufacturing with its own focused effort and restore jobs and decent wages to the American people, that is the question. That a $1 trillion deficit that has already destroyed the US manufacturing and its capacity to defend itself by rapidly building up the US Navy, is that not an emergency, then what is, is also the question, and the role, the duty, of the president of the US in such a situation. The federal appeals court has allowed the DJT Tariffs to remain in place till it goes to the US Supreme Court. Today May 30 the WSJ in a front page article shown here says the one California shipyard could assemble a supply ship in 5 days in 1942. China's independence in the fight against Imperial Japan and the Kwantung Army's adventures, and the independence of Europe in the 1940's depended on this vital US capacity. Is this forgotten? FDR acted step by step by 1938 to restore the US lost capacity at that time, what is the role of the president today? ...

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China's push for globalization is being perceived internationally as an effort to promote its own industries.

Clashes with the U.S. on trade have changed the perception of China in global trade compared to what it was four years ago or in 2008. Tariffs in the U.S. on Chinese imports, slowing foreign investment, inflated property prices, bad debt at banks, and shrinking working age population, are leading to slowing growth which in coming years could drop from 6.1% in 2019. The Belt and Road Initiative is also being perceived differently as it has led to increased in indebtedness of countries in Africa and Asia, debt that cannot be paid back. Much of the ebullient optimism of a few years back is no longer present. The Pew Research Center survey of 34 countries in December 2019 shows about 45% of adults surveyed lacking confidence in China's policy positions in world affairs, according to this report in the WSJ.

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In a new first China's Chang'e-4 probe is about to touch down Jan 3rd on the dark side of the moon, and dispatch a rover in a vast crater to explore the moon. China is using this as the first step in setting up a planned lunar base by 2030. This happens as president Trump revives the U.S. space program after it languished under the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations restricting to unmanned space exploration.

China National Space Administration is the best funded space agency in the world after U.S.'s NASA. Some experts say NASA has lost its focus falling victim to shifting political agendas. An earlier funded program to return astronauts to the moon by NASA was cancelled in 2010 during the Obama administration. This is now jolting the Trump administration into action to revive the programs whose goals are now harder to achieve for the moon program dates in 2023.

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This view in the Economist shows that president Trump actually represented the instincts of the Republican party base by 2018- anti-immigrant, anti-elitist, and to the right on social issues. As a result it says it is no surprise that he has taken over the Republican party. As the elections for Congress get closer most candidates are trying to get Trump's support and many of the older senators and Congressman from the earlier period of the party are retiring. It cites polls showing Trump has support of 85% of the Republican party base. In 2018 Mr. Trump appointed new members of his cabinet who more closely represented his views on China, Iran, NATO, and business issues. Remaining party leaders such as Mr. Romney running for Senate seat from Utah are now seeking and getting Trump's endorsement. The Republican National Committee is also run by Trump supporters. On issues of foreign affairs Trump has combined alternate shifts between demands and pragmatism in relations with China, Iran, and other countries on trade, politics, coming up with a new way international relations are tackled. Part of the reason for their appeal is the nature of the intractable problems such as the imbalances in trade, nuclear weapons, and the idea that an alternative approach might work when other approaches have failed.  On social issues such as issues facing workers in globalization and free trade the parties to the left in the U.S. and countries in western Europe have failed to deliver, leading to the appeal of Mr. Trump, Brexiters, National Front in France.  The immigration issue has also worked against the socialist parties.  In Britain dissatisfaction with Theresa May and hard core Brexiters is growing, leading to Labor Party getting 40% of the vote in the recent election. Suggesting that the changes induced by the Brexiters and the Trump administration may lead to other changes in the future that may shift the focus back to basic issues and delivery on infrastructure, health and education which are fundamental for the future.   ...

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The WSJ's Latour, Browne, Tejada and Wei interview Lou Jiwei, chief executive of the China Investment Corporation (CIC), China's sovereign wealth fund. He says it is too early to talk about eurobonds as the financial arrangements necessary have still to be put in place. CIC is reducing its exposure to Europe. CIC is interested in infrastructure investments and sees infrastructure investment as the way out of the economic crisis for the U.S. and Europe. He has the most confidence in investing in China. Other locations are in emerging markets Brazil, S. Africa, Latin America. CIC's target is to have 50% of the assets in long term investments in infrastructure investments, commodities, real estate and direct investment and private equity, etc. and the other half in public securities. But this will pose challenges and CIC has not reached this level. It is learning from ATP, the Danish pension fund, Calpers, TRS, and CPP, the Canada pension fund. The portfolio is mark to market which creates pressures to reduce short term volatilities....

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About 60% of Americans think the testing for coronavirus and getting medical supplies to health care workers is too slow, in a poll by Wall Street Journal/NBC News. About 6 in 10 Americans in a new survey say they are concerned that the U.S. would move too fast to loosen coronavirus restrictions to slow the spread, and only 3 in 10 say they are concerned that it is not moving fast enough. About twice as many Americans thinking the risks were higher that public authorites and governors would reopen states too soon. About 75% of respondents in the survey say they are very or somewhat worried about themselves or a family member getting the virus. Mr. Trump's approval rating  remains unchanged from March with 46% approving. Most people place their faith in the governor of their state- 66%, and Mr. Fauci, Director National Institute of Infectious Diseases- 60%, than anyone else. On the economy president Trump is seen as being better at handling the economy 47% to 36% than Democratic nominee Biden, even though Biden has a nine point lead. This confirms the widespread dissatisfaction at the way medical supplies shortages are felt at hospitals, and the way testing for coronavirus is happening with not enough testing. President Trump perceived by business and the public as better at handling the economy is also confirmed in this survey. The dissatisfaction with the president for supplies shortages and testing lagging behind may also be tempered by a sense that the public has not taken aggressive action in supporting an early lockdown with many governors and people not supporting or following strict distancing rules till late March. By contrast the president acted quickly to stop all flights from China. ...

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U.S. healthcare spending of about $3 trillion comes with poor results. The cost per person is about three times that of countries such as France, Britain, yet the results show U.S. doing extremely poorly. The author points out that less spending on healthcare and more on social services in areas such as education, nutrition, housing and other services would improve the outcomes and results. It is this missing factor that is helping other countries in Europe, Japan and China achieve better outcomes and returns per dollar spent.  Social spending can affect such things as nutrition, exercize levels, lifestyles, housing and result in dramatic improvements in obesity levels for instance, or inflammation levels in the population that play a role in many diseases. The idea is prevention. This is not happening because higher health dollar spending has lobbies to support it. Social spending also is a dollar expense that shows up immediately whereas results are spread out into the future as a longer term benefit with healthier populations that need to consume less healthcare and treatment. Elizabeth Bradley, president of Vassar College is an expert on this subject. She says social services spending gives more bang for buck  in health outcomes.  The point is relevant also for countries in South Asia and Africa that have taken some on some aspects of the U.S. health system resulting in health care spending that does not deliver the most for the dollar spent, and ignores the critical role of prevention.  The solution lies in moving these health care dollars out of the health care spending and into education for health outcomes, lifestyles, exercize habits education, and into social services that enable prevention and better health. ...

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Xi Jinping is said to have brought up the collapse of the Communist Party in Russia under Gorbachev in a closed door Dec. 2012 meeting of Communist Party officials in Guangdong province. A summary of comments obtained by the media shows Jinping bringing up the situation in Russia, where he said the "ideals and convictions wavered," the system suffered decay, the military and the party went in different directions, leading to collapse of the Communist party system. In Jinping's words it took only one word from Gorbachev for dissolution of the Communist Party, and nobody else came out with a different view. Jinping faces several challenges- tackling corruption in the party, making changes in the economy that move it in a different direction from the dominance of the state owned enterprises, improving the condition of people left out by the economic boom from unemployed students and migrant workers to people in rural areas.

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Slower growth for luxury car sales in China in 2013. German carmakers BMW, Audi and Mercedes are strong in this segment.