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Merkel tells Hungarian news portal Partizan that the Baltic States and Poland made efforts to reduce efforts for dialogue with Russia, and that this dialogue and meetings were also made difficult during the Covid pandemic. Merkel did not address other issues of EU and US relations with Russia over the decade when Russia was not integrated into European structures as a Northern European power. Britain and Netherlands also supported Poland and the Baltic States in efforts to keep NATO as a force and counterweight to Russia in Europe, something Merkel did not cover. Merkel appears to have been selective in covering only this issue in EU-Russian relations and not the larger issues that Merkel never addressed of ending the Cold War structure of NATO that Britain, Netherlands and Poland had favored. The result is that without German or US leadership the Cold War structure of NATO favored by Britain, Netherlands and Poland has been expanded to include Sweden and  Finland, and without a clear resolution of the Ukraine issue created a new situation. This situation is the return of the Cold War in another form with Russia and China, losing the opportunities presented to both sides to use trade and improvements in standards of living to create a durable peace for economic development and addressing the problems that have led to deindustrialization of US and European Union countries. ...

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Macron of France, Scholz of Germany and Tusk of Poland meet in Berlin to iron out difference on Ukraine. Macron calls for strategic ambiguity and a more efforts to support Ukraine.

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Unintended effects of Title 42 law introduced by president Trump which quickly returns migrants crossing the US border with Mexico leading to repeated crossings by the same persons. This leads to a more complicated picture at the border.  About 2 million will have attempted to cross the southern border in 2022 fiscal year. About 22% of crossings involve repeat border crossers.Two thirds of the 182,000 migrants crossing in July 2022 were single individuals. The pandemic hit Mexico and Central America hard and the quicker economic rebound in the US is leading to a surge in migrants looking for work. In addition to Central America asylum seekers come from Cuba and Venezuela with repressive action by regimes. Mexico only takes some of these migrants back. There is also a flow of illegal drugs across the border from Mexico which continues to this day even after the Trump Wall at the border, as most of it comes through official entry points. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have taken action of different kinds yet the problem remains unresolved. ...

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Ethiopia has about 1.1 million internally displaced people, with only Syria and DRC Congo having more displaced people from conflict. The country of 110 million people has about 80 ethnic groups spread out over 9 provinces with regional nationalism. Drought, corruption, and regional nationalism are major problems.  The Tigray region is showing some unrest as reported in The Times. This comes after peace with Eritrea was made by president Abiy Ahmed for which he was given the Nobel Peace Prize. Many of the changes made by Mr. Ahmed after becoming prime minister in 2019 are being done in solo fashion say critics without being institutionalized or consultative, say critics. As a result the situation in Ethiopia where the EPRDF coalition has ruled since 1991 is still precarious. Under Ahmed EPRDF is making efforts at reform and elections for next year.  

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In this exceptional report of the housing market in Roanoke, Virgina, Neil Irwin talks to builders, home buyers, renters and young people. San Francisco and Washington D.C. are the exception in housing markets- hundreds of America's midsize cities like Roanoke are seeing smaller rates of household formation leading to a decline in demand for single family homes and fewer homes being built. This accounts for a large part of the smaller growth in U.S. GDP. There are he points out about 2.3 million missing households as a result of a significant change in home buying patterns that is reducing demand for new construction of single family homes. During the period 2001-2006, before the 2008 global financial crisis, the rate of new U.S. household formation was about 1.35 million annually. This dropped to 569,000 in 2007-2013, as the effects of the crisis were felt in a deep recession. One result is more young people are postponing buying a house and living with their parents. Faced with large student debt- the total U.S. student debt passed $1 trillion for the first time recently- purchases of homes are becoming more dfficult. Of 18-34 year olds 27% lived with their parents before 2006, according to Labor Department data. This went up to 31% following the recession. Lack of good jobs is another factor. In 2014 March only 63% of 18-24 year olds had jobs. Even young people older than 24 with jobs felt it necessary to save money by living with their parents. More retirees too are moving into apartments....

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This report in the WSJ  shows that president Xi is pulling back from his signature economic policy to reduce wide gaps in wealth and opportunities in China. In 2021 this was a policy that Xi pushed to reduce inequalities that have built up over decades of hypergrowth. One tenth of the population owns 68% of the wealth in China creating an highly unequal society. Concerned about the future of the Communist party as disparities kept widening and 40% of the population was left behind, Xi early on in his first and second terms made tackling corruption and inequality part of his policy.  Yet the way China's economy is structured, its dependence on the construction industry for growth, and on local governments for investment, it is easier to tackle infrastructure projects than address widening gaps in society. Xi's efforts have led to slowdown in growth to 5% or less. With the US and Europe moving to shorter supply chains and moving supply chains to less integration with China, slowing growth to less than 4-5% presents a major challenge for China. Leading to a pull back from the Common Prosperity policies that Xi initiated and which are part of Communist party policy in its early period after 1949. A major problem for China says WSJ is that social security contributions revenue is 6.5% of GDP compared to 9% for advanced countries in the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Personal income taxes are 1.2% of GDP compared to 10% in UK and US. This prevents the better funding of programs for maintaining a better safety net and social support for the less well off in society. The pandemic followed by Ukraine war have added new urgency to the acceleration of the effort to build new supply chains, leading to new manufacturing innovation and manufacturing leadership in the US and European Union, and in countries such as Japan, India, and other parts of Asia. This too has made the goals of reducing inequalities and addressing the wide disparities in Chinese society more difficult with sharply slowing growth in China. This was also the experience of Japan and South Korea with decades of fast growth followed by sharp slowdown with unanticipated problems. ...

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New rules set by Brazil for investment in the oil industry give about 80% of revenues generated back to Brazil. The rules require 30% participation for Petrobras, Brazil's state owned oil company, in all projects and operating of oil fields. The rules also mandate sourcing of equipment inside Brazil to develop local suppliers. Shell and Total, eager to add to oil reserves, will participate in development of the Libra oil field. BP, Chevron and Exxon declined to participate. The Brazilian government faces the difficult choice of keeping as much of the benefits of oil production inside Brazil and yet making it attractive enough for major oil companies with the knowhow for deep water drilling to participate. Delaying development for years means pushing revenue generation further into the future even as the growth rate for Brazil is slowing- down to 0.9% in 2012 and expected to be 2.5% in 2013. The street protests in 2013 making it even more important to show that the benefits of oil production will stay inside Brazil and yet not delay the generation of revenues needed for investment in Brazilian education and infrastructure....

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About Kurdish attempts to negotiate with foreign oil companies for oil exploration on Kurdish territory within Iraq. Fears of the Sunni minority and the concerns of the Shiite controlled government's oil ministry in Baghdad.

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The focus is shifting from the oil majors to the companies in the oil field services sector, companies that supply the oil companies with oil field services. Deepwater oil field drilling rigs some of the most modern computer controlled ones run $650 million are in great demand and one Norwegian supplier of drilling rigs has anticipated the demand for advanced deepwater drilling rigs which the major oil companies had not invested in and is now in a position to charge $600,000 a day for the advanced rigs he has ordered 3 years ago as the deepwater drilling took off in places like offshore Angola. Earlier this Norwegian had anticipated the shift to long haul shipping of oil to places like India and China from Iran and offshore Africa.

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James West, energy analyst at Barclay's Capital, who co-authored a survey of 402 companies, estimates that the oil industry will spend $490 billion in 2011 to search for and extract oil and gas. This is up 11% from 2010. This spending includes increases in costs for finding and extracting oil and gas in hard to reach areas. The largest companies, including Exxon, Shell, Chevron and BP, are expected to increase spending by 16% to $108.6 billion. Chevron recently announced a 29% increase in spending, partly to develop large off-shore projects in Western Australia, the South China Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

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Students are failing in math and need remedial preparation. Professors are alarmed at UCLA and UC San Diego. Governor Newsom pushed his not well thought out initiative to remove SAT/ACT preparation so that it would help disadvantaged students when it is exactly that kind of rigor that all students need. And to help disadvantaged student special programs and teachers should be setup before college entry not remove rigorous preparation requirements that all student can take and benefit from preparation. There is no substitute for discipline and hard work in education and this starts early in the K-12 process and goes through all the level to 12th grade when the preparation all over the world gets rigorous, as it is in Asian countries and in Europe.

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German Foreign Minister Baerbock is now at the UN as president of the UN General Assembly. In this video she looks at changes needed for the UN to better reflect realities in 2025.

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Nigel Farage of Reform UK surges as its membership reaches 100,000 to Kemi Badenoch's Tories with 132,000 and split in their ranks. Tories are nervous about what is happening. Labour is trying to get its act together, and trying to get the civil service to serve the people. Starmer even goes on to warn that the civil service is "in managed decline." Every ministry is asked to save 5% through cutting waste and inefficiency, and to make good use of limited resources to deliver results to the British people. 2025 will be critical not only for Wales, Scottish and local elections, 2025 will show whether Labour can tackle the immediate problms of housing, cost of living, transport and show results in delivering on infrastructure and improvements at the NHS. Labour needs to get its execution for the goals set right and stay on top of delivery metrics at every stage on a monthly and quarterly basis. Can a lawyer like Starmer do this? It took years of execution of projects for Modi of India at the state level as chief minister in Gujarat to executi at the national level. Can Starmer/Reeves and the rest of the team learn, and learn quickly? ...

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France's high speed train network SNCF and its new trains TGV m are the focus of French Connections series in FR24. It is a great success for France as it connects 230 cities across France and decentralizes the country making remote areas reachable in hours. 770 kms Paris Marseille is covered in 3 hours. It has transported about 3 billion passengers since its founding in 1981 under Francois Mitterand. 122 million people traveled on TGV trains in 2023, and this is increasing by 20% a year. The trains travel at 350 kilometers an hour and are capable of over 500 kms per hour. For countries like India this is very useful to know as the first bullet trains based on Japanese technology are being built for route Bombay- Ahmedabad- Jaipur- Delhi. It shows that if it worked so well in France it can work well in the US or India. In India it could transport many times the 122 million in France and connect remote regions exceeding 1000 kms. Madras Srinagar is 3000 kms or 1900 miles. Imagine this being done in 7 hours at 400 kms per hour. It would really decentralize India. Same for the US for Austin Texas to Boston Massachusetts 1600 miles in 7 hours. It would better integrate communities in the US that are far apart socially.   ...

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The cost of living crisis and low export demand causes 0.2% decline in the German economy in 2024. This is the second year that the German economy is shrinking slightly. Germany in ocntrast to the US is not able to invest in the ageing and deteriorating infrastructure, in transportation and in roads and bridges, other investment needs, because Merkel placed a clause to limit spending into the German constitution. The FDP party in the German Social Democrats Greens FDP coalition acted as a brake on spending during the Scholz first term. The result is deep problems in German infrastructure. Deutsche Bahn trains are chronically late because of poor maintenance and old equipment.

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China's Producer prices declined by 3%, Consumer prices flatlined, and imports and exports are both down 6.2% in September 2023. Growth is expected not to exceed 5% in forecasts by IMF and others.

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NYT's Catie Edmonson covers Speaker Mike Johnson as he meets other Republicans and organizations supporting Ukraine such as American Coalition for Ukraine, European leaders including Polish leaders, that show he is looking at different approaches to bringing up the supplemental bill for Ukraine and Israel in 2 weeks.  Options include doing two separate bills for aid to Ukraine and Israel to avoid the problem of Democrat far left voting against Israel aid and Republican far right voting against aid to Ukraine. The bill would require a two thirds majority because of House rules and some members of the Freedom Caucus opposing it. It would require a bipartisan effort. Speaker Mike Johnson has the advantage of coming in without any preconceived views, is philosophically similar to other younger ardent Republicans, as he is relatively new in Congress, and his style is such that nothing is personal. He says only his tactics are different. ...