LyrArc Article Gist
Unemployment is over 25% on Chicago's South Side black neighborhoods. Conditions have deteriorated with the higher unemployment since the economic crisis. Residents see little improvement since the days of Obama as a community activist in this part of the city.

LyrArc Article Gist
In 2015 the new government of Antonio Costa took a U turn from austerity policies followed in return for a bailout from the European Union. This has helped Portugal achieve the highest growth in a decade coming back from a severe slump. Unemployment is cut in half with growth in the tourist industry, and investment in agriculture, construction, aerospace.  Traditional industries such as paper mills and textiles have invested in new technology resulting in a boom in exports. German companies Bosch, Mercedes Benz, and others have also invested in the country. Portugal has a good relationship with Germany and the European Union which has also helped attract foreign investment. Prime minister Antonio Costa says "too much austerity deepens a recession and leads to a vicious circle." Antonio Costa came to power in 2015 on promises to reverse cuts in income made by the previous government to reduce the deficit in exchange for a 78 billion euro international bailout. The government backed by left parties left out of government since 1974 with the collapse of the dictatorship, was able to increase public sector salaries, the minimum wage and pensions, over objections of the IMF and the German government. Incentives were given to small business in the form of tax incentives, development subsidies and funding. Budget balancing was achieved by cutting expenditure on infrastructure and other spending, cutting the budget deficit from 4.4% when Costa took office to 1%. A surplus is planned for 2020, ending a quarter century of budget deficits. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Dec. 13, 2016, that it would increase its benchmark short term interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, to between 0.50% and 0.75%. The increase will also be reflected in business and household borrowing costs. The Fed also announced its intention to make 0.75% percentage point increase in 2017, possibly in 3 quarter percentage point moves. The Fed's forecast is for the fed-funds rate to reach 2.1% at the end of 2018, and 2.9% at the end of 2019. The Fed's policy is based on a sense of strong labor market with unemployment falling, and says it is based on discussion at a 2 day meeting, and "in view of realized and expected labor-market conditions and inflation." This reflects a view that there is now not that much slack in the labor market, that further improvements could trigger higher inflation. Fed forecasts for inflation are for it to increase from 1.5% in 2016 to 1.9% in 2017 and to the target of 2% in 2018. The unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2016 is forecast to go to 4.5% in 2017 and remain at that level till 2019. Economic growth is forecast at a median annual rate of 1.9% in 2016, 2.1% in 2017, only a slight improvement from last forecast in Sept. 2016. Support for chairwoman Yellen's policy decision was unanimous. See the link on views of NYT's Binyamin Applebaum and Neil Irwin on how Fed rate policy and economic growth under the Trump administration is likely to play out, and Ian Talley's report on impact on exports with a stronger dollar in WSJ. These views also are in line with the Fed's forecasts and policy decision as they reflect the concerns of the Fed about inflation, and also reflect the Fed's view that growth will be close to 2% in 2017-2019, and not the 3-4% stated by Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Fed rate policies to keep inflation at about 2% tend to counter stimulus spending by the Trump administration and effect of tax cuts. The size of the stimulus and the tax cuts are also likely to be much smaller than stated because of Republican concerns about the deficit in the U.S. Congress, according to these views. The stronger dollar also has the paradoxical effect of making trade gains more difficult while increasing trade friction in tougher bargaining supported by Trump, making the higher growth targets harder to reach.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. president Obama says at a rally in Philadelphia that Donald Trump is a fradulent champion of the working class, saying that Trump is simply exploiting the populist mood, that for 70 years he has shown no concern for working class people. Obama told the crowd he understood the public's mood for change and that he himself had benefitted from it. Yet he said that it did not add up. Obama said: "This guy is suddenly going to be your champion? I mean, he spent most of his life trying to stay as far away from working people as he could, and now this guy is going to be the champion of the working people. Huh." "I mean he wasn't going to let you in his golf course. He wasn't going to let you buy in his condo. And now suddenly this guy is going to be your champion." 

LyrArc Article Gist
Product obsolescence in a matter of weeks- the situation with the HP Touchpad. The Touchpad tablet is introduced at a retail price of $399 for 16GB and $499 for 32GB versions on July 1, 2011. The product is scrapped by CEO Apotheker after disappointing sales within weeks of introduction. It is now sold at a sale price of $99 in the last week of August 2011. This shows the astounding rate at which things change in the high tech product markets. Nokia, Nintendo, and now HP have seen their fortunes change quickly in 2011.

LyrArc Article Gist
Expectations of lower inflation in the U.S. for 2012. The Commerce Department showed inflation slowing with consumer prices up 2.5% over the prior year in November, down from 2.7% in October and 2.9% in September. The Labor Department's consumer price index went up by 0.8% annual rate in the last 3 months. Increase in labor costs are also mild. Hourly wages of private sector U.S. workers were up 1.8% in November 2011 over the prior year. Commodity demand in emerging markets is slowing with lower growth, which reduces pressure on commodity prices. The consumer price index is expected to rise by 1.2% in 2012, according to J.P. Morgan economists. The Federal Reserve in its recent statement after a Dec. 13 meeting stated it expects inflation at below 2%.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. Federal Reserve policies that focus on bringing down the unemployment rate, with special focus on the long term unemployed. The Fed's view is that unemployment is high across all sectors and industries and not based primarily on structural factors such as mismatch in skills. Structural unemployment cannot be reduced through interest rate or monetary policy.

LyrArc Article Gist
The LDP Party led by prime minister Abe wins 290 seats in the lower house of parliament in the Dec. 2014 elections. Its ally the Komeito Party gets 34 seats giving the government a two thirds majority in parliament. The LDP previously had 295 seats from the 2012 elections. Of the total 475 seats in parliament, 73 seats went to the opposition DPJ Party and 21 seats to the Communist Party. This gives Abe a 4 year mandate reducing the uncertainty from having a regular change in prime ministers in recent history, making Abe the 17th prime minister in 25 years. The stable government and clear economic policy will help the economy. Abe says he will focus on prodding companies to raise wages, as many people say they have not personally seen any benefit from Abenomics. As a result turnout hit a new low of 52% compared to 59% in 2012 parliamentary elections, with prospective voters showing their dissatisfaction by staying away. Severe winter weather and public confusion about why the snap election was being held may have added to low voter turnout. Other parts of the Abe agenda include restarting some of the 48 nuclear reactors offline since the Fukushima disaster. Abenomics faces hard work ahead as it grapples with two quarters of declining growth in 2014, consumers feeling the effects of the increase in the consumption tax from 5% to 8%, and small businesses feeling the effects of higher cost for imports with the weaker yen. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The number of households without a car increased the fastest in Detroit of any city in the U.S. from 2007 to 2012- by 5% to 26%. In a city which neglected to put in a rail system, many residents endure subzero temperatures for long waits and long commutes to job locations in the winter of 2014.

LyrArc Article Gist
Stanford Prof. Robert Sutton on the advantages of continuous feedback over formal performance evaluations. Performance evaluations if not done right can do damage especially ones that are designed to promote individual excellence over teamwork and achieving goals as a team effort.

LyrArc Article Gist
The worst flaw in the health care bill says the Economist is that "fee for service" and doctors billing for each test done continues as before.The whole idea of medical services based on medical necessity and value for money has been left out of the billsin Congress. Alan Meltzer also pointed this out in his discussion of the deficits and debt over the next decade; that the 25% reduction in medical expenditures does not look anywhere closer to reality, worsening the deficits. This is also the view expressed in the discussion of health care reform in the November 2, 2009, issue of Business Week. Never mind said BW that the doctors and hospitals account for one third of medical expenditures and there is waste in Medicare spending. Congress said BW has made no changes in the "fee-for-service" system of medical care that has inflated medical costs, by paying doctors for the volume of services delivered and not the quality of services delivered.

LyrArc Article Gist
Early opinion polls show Macron the more convincing candidate in the first television debate held in March with 29 percent in an Elabe poll, with Le Pen at 19 percent. An OpinionWay poll shows Macron more convincing at 24 percent and Le Pen at 19 percent. Polls show Le Pen winning 27 percent of the vote in the first round with candidate Fillon on the right and Melenchon, Hamon on the left splitting the vote. In the second round with two candidates the vote shift of other right and left candidates determines the outcome. The second round then hinges on whether French middle and working class voters see risks to their economic future in leaving the EU, and whether appeals to nationalism and anti-immigrant rhetoric works enough to draw support from a centrist candidate.

LyrArc Article Gist
The way Mr. Partovi's idea of mixing keyword search with ads met with resistance at Microsoft, after Microsoft spent $265 million to acquire his company LinkExchage. Some of Partovi's bosses warmed to his idea of auctioning keywords but their eyes were glued to the prospects of display banner ads and did not think much of the search and ads combined together, like searching for a term and seeing the vendors of all kinds of related services who pay a fee every time someone clicks on their name. Bosses changed and the Keywords group was shifted to other parts of the Microsoft business ending up in software. A small trial was made but price of auctioning keywords was not set appropriately. Partovi's insistence was seen as resistance to the ordered way of doing things at Microsoft, and Ballmer in 2003 talked about "discordant and dissident directions" in the company, tendencies which he derided. Partovi's passion was seen as insubordination and finally in May 2000 with $1 million in revenue from Keywords comparing poorly with Microsoft's other online ad revenue, Keywords was shutdown. Partovi left Microsoft in July 2000. He shopped his idea around. Yahoo said it did not fit in with its plans, later buying Overture for $1.8 billion in summer 2003. Google talked to Partovi but declined, instead quietly building its own service. And Google launched its own service AdWords combining search and ads in October 2000. It was under pressure to come up with arevenue generating method.By 2002 Google was stealing advertisers from Goto.com that had pioneered the business of ads and search but lacked the advantage of having its own search engine. Microsoft also faced the same problem. In May 2002 AOL dropped Goto.com and teamed up with Google for paid search. By late 2002 Microsoft executive Yusuf Mehdi was visiting Goto.com and launched an effort to buy Overture the new name for Goto.com. But when in Spring 2003 Mehdi pitched buying Overture for $1 billion to Gates and Ballmer, both tore into the proposal saying that they could do it for less than the $1-2 billion price tag by doing it inhouse. By this time Google was already the dominant company in search ads and Overture was losing out. But even with hundreds of programmers Microsoft did not get its search engine ready till late 2004 and the search ad system in May 2006, about 3 years from the meeting with Mehdi. The resistance of founders to development of new products, is seen at HP for the personal computer which was later embraced, and at Honda where a new kind of engine had to be developed secretly without Soichiro Honda's knowledge. In both cases the product was developed successfully after initial resistance, but in the case of Microsoft the new ideas and people may have been smothered and development done to Microsoft's founders own inclinations for order, and treated the same way as its other products till it was too late. A factor not present to the same degree in HP and Honda's situation was the speed with which the internet developed and search engines like Google developed. So that in 8 years since its launch Google is firmly entrenched, and has 73% of search ad spending, with Yahoo at 13.3% and Microsoft a distant third. Google generated $5 billion in profits from this in 2008. By 2009 search ad spending is estimated to reach $12.3 billion....

LyrArc Article Gist
Monthly reports are issued on bank lending by the Treasury. The report for February shows business lending is down by 24% in its dollar value from the previous month, and a similiar decline in student, auto and credit card lending. The only increase is in mortgage lending as government efforts to hold down interest rates heave led to a refinancing boom. The two largest lenders Wells Fargo and Bank of America reported a 35% jump in mortgage lending in February over January. Businesses are charged more for loans by Chase, which it says is to reflect increased risks, and Chase has sharply reduced its business lending. This is bad news for the economy, because it means businesses will continue to pull back, and some businesses will layoff employees and others may close for lack of financing. The other link to the report in the WPost about the consumers who have jobs, but are acting flat broke suggests consumption will continue to decline, which puts stresses on businesses as sales revenues for all sorts of products decline across the spectrum of the economy. With less acess to costlier financing, and declining sales, the picture of continued large job losses is being etched, and will continue to be etched as these are becoming things that will not change for a long time. Banks are insolvent or close to being insolvent, so lending is only like to change if the government takesover the banks and puses through lending at attractive rates. But it has to do this quickly, before confidence drops to a level where the demand for loans just isn't there. China is able to push lending through the banks because government controls the banks, this cannot happen in the US unless the government actually steps in to take over the insolvent banks and push through a large lending program. In this sense the Obama program while admirable and helpful to stabilize things a bit, is only part effective, and can never really restore confidence or a serious measure of economic stability because of the three pillars of progress in this situation, it can impact only two directly- foreclosure prevention, and business plus consumer lending. The third consumption is something it can only indirectly control through foreclosure prevention and lending, but which is headed down as Americans convert to a frugal lifestyle. And in these two areas of foreclosure prevention and business lending the government is failing. The fourth pillar of progress in the recovery is employment, and this is also an area the government can only indirectly control through stimulus spending on infrastructure, education and energy, but is largely influenced by foreclosure prevention- which keeps home prices from falling rapidly and overshooting and reduces household wealth- and business/consumer lending. These are ER (f) FPL (CE). Economic Recovery as a function of Foreclosure Prevention and Lending, and Consumption and Employment, where indirect control is shown by ( ). With not much in place for FPL- the only two variables government can directly control if it takes strong and immediate action before its influence on these two variables begins to diminish over time- Obama's inexperience and learning curve and failure to take bold action to get serious results on FPL, may result in admirable demeanor and rhetoric but medicore results and a struggling economy for years to come. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
How ethanol picture as a useful alternative fuel has changed completely in the past year. The economics of ethanol also have changed completedly in the past year, as corn prices have risen to above $3 abushel and stayed there, even with the biggest corn crop since 1945, and prices of ethanol have dropped with huge oversupply of ethanol from $5 a gallon in June 2006 to about $1.85 a gallon today. Global ethanol production has grown from 10.9 billion gallons in 2006 to 13.4 billion gallons in 2007 according to IEA. US's ethanol production is about half of this or 7 billion gallons and is up 80% in 2 years. The production capacity of ethanol with new plants is expected to jump to about 12 billion gallons in 2008 even as demand for ethanol is about 7 billion gallons.This huge oversupply accounts for the drop in prices of ethanol with margins dropping from $2.30 in 2006 to 25 cents in late 2007. Its become less and less attractive as an alternative fuel as more studies appear and more groups cite the different ways in which ethanol has destructive effects on the environment. Corn is in demand by food companies and by livestock companies in the USA and generally across the developing world so raising corn prices is seen very unfavorably around the world. Nation Academy of Sciences study and a National Research Council study says corn based ethanol could strain water supplies and impair water quality. American Lung Assocation worries about the the air pollution from burning ethanol in gasoline. And a EPA Spring 2007 report says ozone levels increase with increased use of ethanol. A study coauthored by Nobel prize winning chemist Paul Crutzen says it might exacerbate climate change because of the added fertilizer used to produce corn raised emissions of nitrous oxide. All this has made people wary of ethanol and much of the early enthusiasm for ethanol has vanished. The lobbying struggle pits the ethanol producers and the farm lobby in the midwest against oil companies which don't like being forced to use a non-petroleum fuel even with a subsidy of 54 cents of gallon for blending ethanol into gasoline, and food and livestock companies which need corn at lower prices. Add to this the weight of environmental organizations and countries across the developing world which simply don't like the idea of using scarce food resources in this manner and find this to be just not a right thing to do for the world's poor which need corn as a basic food source. Consider Mexico where this affects the price of a staple food corn tortillas and China which bans the use of corn for making biofuels, both countries seek to keep food prices low for the country's large numbers of rural and urban poor people and could see the stability of these countries disturbed by huge rise in food or fuel prices. As a result of all this the ethanol lobby is looking to Congress to mandate a certain usage figure of ethanol in gasoline production in the new energy law. This legislation now could become controversial in the future as better ways of solving the energy crisis such as automobile fuel efficiency reducing demand and conservation, as well as other alternative sources that have fewer adverse environmental impact come into play. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The CUP party repudiates the leadership of Arturo Mas following a corruption scandal in the Catalonia ruling party Convergence. Convergence led by Mas is losing support in the state in 2016.

LyrArc Article Gist
President Hu Jintao at the opening of the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. China's goal is to quadruple per capita GNP by 2020 compared to 2000. Population is expected to increase by 200 million people by 2020. While he described rampant corruption, the degradation ogf the environment and disparities between the urban and rural areas andbetween the coastal and interior areas as the major challlenges facing China he gave few details on how he planned to meet these challenges suggesting that not much that is new is being planned to address these challenges. He also pointed to the need for consumption driven growth moving away from the present export driven growth, but offered few details on how this would be addressed. This suggests that while Chinese leaders recognize some of the challenges facing them they may not understand the severity of these challenges as time passes or they have not the will to address them with major changes in the current model of economic growth or that the momentum of th currrent model is so great and the power is so spread out in China between different provinces and local regions in meeting economic goals of GNP growth that the central government cannot make major changes withouth the whole system losing some of its momentum and they fear that that would lead to problems that they would be even less effective in dealing with and the system could then come apart with the Communist Party being unable to direct things as the "core" leadership of the country....