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Even though immigration makes the headlines for the average German and daily German life polls and surveys show says the NYT that the main concerns center around a failing economy. For 5 years Germany has experienced little growth. According to Eurostat, Germany's GDP growth rate is 2023 -0.2% 2022: 1.37% 2021: 3.67% 2020 -4.1% Tankersley and Eddy report from Lutherstadt Wittenberg Eastern Germany. As Germany's economy slows companies may move jobs and manufacturing to Austria and France says one CEO of a company that makes fertilizer and additives for diesel motors. This could lead to loss of 10,000 jobs in an already depressed region. The problems faced buy German industry are increasing with higher costs of energy- even after prices have come down energy is 20% costlier than the European average according to Eurostat. Industry leaders say this is the result partly of efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions. Increasing competition from China means Germany cannot compete as before. Investment in public infrastructure has not kept up with crumbling roads and bridges and a rail system with underinvestment and plagued with delays. Investment in digital technology has lagged behind China, India and France.   ...

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Indian salary growth is expected to be 15% a year and salaries for professionals doubling every 5 years based on GDP growth for Vikshit Bharat 2047 of 12% per year. This is why India will seek to limit migration to legal migration only and further limit the brain drain by creating attractive opportunities in India, including ones from GCC's or global capability centers of foreign corporations in India that are expanding as US reduces its overdependence on China for manufacturing and returns jobs and factories back to the US.

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To keep prices from taking a nosedive if there is a slowdown, as for example in the Chinese economy, a concentration of resources within 3 or 4 mining companies enable them to slow down development of new deposits to adjust supply with demand. In this case even if China slows, India, Russia and Brazil may still pick up, as they may be less sensitve to the U.S. consumer than China. China is a manufacturing export based economy compared to India and Russia, which are more dependent on internal demand. Iron ore prices have increased by three times since 2003, and China's imports of iron ore have gone up from 29% to half of the world's imports. Prices of all commodities copper, alumina, uranium have shot up. BHP and Rio both based in Melbourne, Australia have absorbed all the medium size companies in the Melbourne mining scene. Australia has traditionally been a leader in this field because of its huge mining resources. Other reasons for consolidation are the more complex technologies needed to develop the remaining deposit finds, which are fewer and fewer and of lesser quality. Another factor is that the resource nationalism in India, Bolivia, Indonesia, Mongolia and other places requires more sophisticated investors. Combining Rio and BHP also means BHP can use the better infrastructure of Rio and invest more productively in future infrastructure rail lines and port development to speed exports to other countries. See the Barta article in the WSJ Link on this on Dec 18, 2007. ...

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Gerlad Seib points out that one should look less at what president Trump accomplished in the first 100 days and more at how he operated and learned during this initial period. This is certainly true because much of what happened in the first 100 days contradicts some of the tone that Trump setup during the campaign. When it comes to governing Trump has made an effort to learn and adapt and show resilience in the face of early setbacks on the travel ban and the health care bill, the Flynn episode. After this early period Trump took on a more disciplined approach, gave more room to and listened to more respected advisors- Tillerson on foreign affairs in shaping policy with Russia leading to Tillerson's presence at Lucca massacre memorial in Italy sending a clear signal about U.S. policies in line with its role in the past century in world affairs, Gary Cohn and Ross on economic policy and seeking Cohn's advice on tax plan, Ross's on NAFTA negotiations with Mexico. As a result the NAFTA fears were calmed down with statements by Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, that the goal was a win-win relationship with Mexico. Trump worked with his party in Congress to have the Supreme Court nomination of Gorsuch approved. Meetings with Merkel of Germany and Jinping of China were carefully planned and new relationships established as Seib points out, without ruffling trade relations. The appointment of Robert Lighthizer, as Trade Representative, also shows that efforts to give the U.S. a more level playing field in trade will be resolutely pursued in the win-win context. Lyrarc has profiled Lighthizer earlier in this decade after his op-eds in the media as he correctly anticipated the changing public mood on the need for fairness in trade relations. On relations with China and South Korea, Jim Mattis has taken the lead, and Pence's visit to South Korea also show deftness in handling what is one of the most difficult issues in foreign affairs. Mattis and Tillerson also have helped reinforce the Republican party policies on NATO and Europe, with the visit of NATO secretary general Stoltenberg to the White House. In the end it is how much you can learn in the first year, how much you listen, and the courage to act in difficult situations, the willingness to act contrary to one's instincts and self interest where necessary, that matters. This is especially true in an environment where as Seib points out the Democratic Party stands opposed to the Trump administration following a bitter election campaign.   ...

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India US trade relationship needs a complete rethinking in 2025 as trade tensions increase. In addition India needs to accept that the US or some other power has to maintain peace from a possible nuclear escalation that would be so damaging to south Asia and the world, and the US role under DJT seen in this context and welcomed. For this to happen both US and India need to look beyond the past perceptions of ethnic divisions as India industrializes, beyond China, as India's modernization will change everything in Asia and the world. Possible opportunities exist in India offering it's strengths in pharmaceuticals to reduce costs of drugs to ordinary Americans. India could take advantage of the reduction in oil prices under DJT to reduce purchases of Russian oil so that it is getting nearly the same price when oil prices were high and Russia offered discounted oil.  On agricultural exports to India, India can look for better ways to tackle this offering some transition period to when the US could send some quantities of exports in areas where India's rapidly growing middle class can absorb US fruits production such as cherries and apples, other fruit. India could help the US in the pharmaceutical and other sectors as a way to address US desire for reducing costs of drugs in the US. India could for instance make the drugs at a low cost in the US, investing in factories in the US to supply low cost drugs to average Americans tackling one of the biggest problems the American people face. ...

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Long drawn out bombing campaigns such as the US bombing of North Vietnam did not by itself provide results. However there is a difference when it comes to nuclear proliferation, which is a completely different proposition.  Which is also why DJT however he words it has got it right that the US as a world power has responsibilities. In fact being a world power means first and foremost responsibility, not some swaggering walk. It means that whose side you are on in regional conflicts stops when it comes to nuclear proliferation. There is also a deeper understanding of "western powers" as we argue here. The US has to be wary of "western powers" because it is a colonial era concept of the French and the British. Western civilization is the right concept and this includes Russia. What about China and India? China and India owe little to colonial powers, and everything to western civilization, the Enlightenment, the Renaissance and the scientific and Industrial Revolutions that have brought both into the modern world.  ...

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Barton Swaim editorial page writer of the WSJ on Vladimir Putin Weekend Interview with Beatrice de Graaf of Utrecht Uiversity and Niels Drost of Clingendael Institute in The Hague, Netherlands - how Western World missed Czar Peter the Great's World View and its shaping Putin's World View creating vast misconceptions when US thinks Russia thinks like western norms.  Could the US have missed a key component of the thinking of Russian leaders in putting themselves in the line of Russian kings (Czars) since the Enlightenment with belief in nationality, autocracy and Empire of the Enlightenment. “Of course he (Putin) also refers to the Second World War, and he does refer to Stalin—but not that much. Far more often he talks about the great Russian czars.” And the great Czars that was important to Putin, de Graaf counts 3000 statues built in Russia to these role models for Putin. In the early years says de Graaf Putin talked incessantly about the modernization of Russia, Russia joining the Modern World in the years of the Enlightenment, Russia fighting off Napoleon and under the Soviets Nazi Germans. Graaf says he talked about- “Peter the Great and European interests, of Catherine the Great and literacy and the Enlightenment. He spoke of Alexander I and Europe joining to defeat Napoleon." Deep down Putin felt in these talks 11,000 of them on the Putin site which puts up his speeches and talks over a 20 year period, which Niels Grost with his fluency in Russian has looked at. Of these 3000 talks and speeches are in this reference to the great Czars. Even before Ukraine there was a sense of hurt that considering the vast expanse that Russia occupies in Europe Russia had by restoring the old Russia by 2000 found itself in a odd predicament. As de Graaf and Swain point out the US market based economy based on GDP, the US presidents such as Bush and Obama saw Russia as a  middle power based on its exports and imports, its trade, its commerce which was the only way they could see the world. This led to a special kind of shortsightedness says this interview in the WSJ. Putin's key adviser says of Russia's goal - to be seen as a Northern European Power (from WSJ) in 2025.Putin sees Russia as looking for "respect," as a goal.  This is where US business may have got it all wrong- the authors say about China and India- and the US, seeing themselves as Empires not in today's Modern World as with imperialist ambitions, but with a historic sense of regional presence across Asia and North America with their rapid modernization. DJT's talk of Canada as a 51st state, one finds US business as accepting the idea that Canada is part of the US regional influence. And under the Monroe Doctrine of 1824 revived by no less than Teddy Roosevelt and FDR, in its cooperation form by JFK in 1960, the regional influence of the United States in the Western Hemisphere is also accepted by US business and the American public. It is this context that the authors say offer an alternative view of the Russian leader and his policies. Beatrice de Graaf and Niels Drost are the author of "Putin's Czarist Dream" At that point there is in addition to nationality, autocracy and Empire of the czars the ideas embedded in Eastern Orthodox Christianity which are different says de Graaf of Utrecht University in Netherlands, from Western Christianity. This Eastern Orthodox Christian idea is a bit different from St. Augustine's just war and discussion of what constitutes a just war, and the definition of that being given under Russian tradition by Russian Czars or leaders who Putin identifies himself with such as Peter the Great. Peter the Great  created the beginnings of Russia as a modern European state in St. Petersburg during the years of the Enlightenment. In the Eastern Asian tradition the Bhagavad Gita also has a discussion of what constitutes a just war so that it extends to different regions of the world not just European. ...

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UK bank, HSBC Holdings, is in negotiations with a buyer to sell its 15.6% stake in Ping An Insurance Group of China. This stake is valued at $9.17 billion at current prices. The deal could give HSBC an estimated profit of $7.5 billion at a time when it needs to boost performance.

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US president Biden's multi-trillion dollar spending plans for infrastructure, climate change plans, education and healthcare, are based on a changing perception about the effectiveness of the public sector spending initiatives. The Reagan period idea that the public sector is not as efficient as the private sector that lingered through the Clinton, Bush and Obama, Trump administrations is no longer accepted. After the pandemic another perception is taking root that when it comes to health infrastructure the government has a leading and indispensable role to play. Gone are the doubts about this that hung like a cloud over the nation's plans for infrastructure in health, education and supply channels. Following the global competition with China a new factor is also playing its part. The need for government to play an active role in trade, in protecting technological resources, and in supporting US technological firms in competition with other countries. There is a new perception that the government should be determined to play this role. In the effort to be self-reliant after the pandemic the government is expected to play a role in redesigning the supply channels and providing the direction and incentives for supply channels worldwide that give America a competitive advantage and less dependence on other nations. ...

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India moves ahead with the the purchase of $5 billion S-400 long range surface-to-air missile system from Russia durinf president Putin's visit to New Delhi. Delivery of 5 of the systems will take place over 2 years. India hopes to have a transaction specific waiver for the purchases as the U.S. is placing sanctions on defense purchases by countries from Russia. U.S. sanctioned China in September 2018 for its purchases of 25 Sukhoi jet fighters and S-400 missile systems from Russia.

India has set a goal of diversifying its arms purchases. From 79% of arms purchases sourced from Russia, the figure dropped to 62% in 2013-2017 compared to the preceding 5 year period.

India and Russia have set the goal of expanding bilateral trade from current $10 billion in 2017 to $25 billion  by 2025. 

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Analysts say the second phase of building China's strategic petroleum reserve will begin in the first half of 2011. This addition is expected to be for 168 million barrels, adding to the 100 million barrels in the reserve. China International Capital Corporation, a Beijing investment bank, says this stocking up and the rising inventories at Chinese oil companies could increase oil prices by $6.50 a barrel in 2011 and 2012. Existing Chinese reserves cover only 12 days of demand, compared to the 103 million barrels or 40 days for the US strategic petroleum reserve. This increases the uncertainty in world oil markets. A daily addition of 150,000 barrels a day would meet one third of the expected second phase in 2011, and this amounts to about 10% of the International Energy Agency's forecast increase in global demand for 2011. At the same time if oil gets too expensive, China could decide to wait for a more opportune time to build stocks.

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Exxon, BP, Eni, Shell, are actively working in Iraq to increase oil production, along with Lukoil, Gazprom, China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation. Foreign companies are attracted to Iraq because of the potential for growing oil production. Iraq produces 3 million barrels a day in 2012. An additional 400,000 barrels a day is planned for 2013. Shell's Iraq country chairman, Hans Nijkamp,says Iraq could eventally produce 6 to 10 million barrels a day by the early part of the next decade. Iraqi government officials have set a target of 10 million barrels a day by 2017, which is overly ambitious because of the many problems that need to be tackled, including building port and pipeline infrastructure, huge water projects to pump saline water into old oil fields, and passing a national oil law. Passing a national oil law means negotiating a deal acceptable to the Kurdish and other regions about sharing oil profits.

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Don't let the current holiday season retail sales fool you as they have held up reasonably well. The impact of the mortgage and housing crisis will be felt in a delayed manner. It won't be till 2008 that the impact will really be felt. And the impact is expected to be lasting and deep, could take the rest of 2008, 2009 and into 2010 for this protracted tightening of credit. About $300-400 billion contraction in credit is expected when banks tighten their credit lending because of losses they are taking in the mortgage crisis. This will happen in an environment of falling house prices and consumers will not have access to the $340 billion in cash from home and mortgage equity financing that they took out in 2006, estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Auto, retail, apparel, and luxury items would be hit the most. On the jobs side not all the jobs will be lost in the USA. The USA imports about $740 billion in consumer goods and autos each year, which is one third of consumer spending excluding food and energy. The lower consumption in auto and apparel would affect exporters in Japan and China and South Korea. But Chinese exports have reached a point that they are causing trade tensions and a call for strengthening the yuan. An increase in American exports and lower imports could help bring down America's trade deficit. This could give China an opportunity to build its domestic market and markets in Asia and Europe so that it is not so dependent on the US market. For the US where the savings rate is near zero this is an opportunity for consumers to build their savings and reduce debt. Europe and India and the Middle East are expected to continue growth and China may see slower but continued growth in 2008 and 2009. In the US industries like aircraft and infrastructure promoting companies that sell to countries like Russia, India Brazil, the Middle East, and China will continue to grow. And because rates are still low large nonfinancial companies still have access to funds for expansion and capital investment. In a global economy the US consumer may be one part of a much larger picture. ...

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A study published in the British journal Lancet shows that the number of people suffering from diabetes went from 153 million in 1980 to 353 million in 2008. The study shows the U.S. having 24.7 millon diabetics in 2008, which is three times the number from 1980. About 70% of this is from population growth and aging, and the rest from obesity, lack of exercize, changing diet. The American Diabetes Association estimated the cost of treating diabetes in the U.S. at $174 billion for 2007. About 138 million diabetics live in China and India. In India there is an additional cause- malnutrition in early childhood years for the poorer segment of the population. European countries have done better than the U.S., Mexico, India and China. S. Korea and Thailand have done better than other Asian countries. And this is attributed to healthier lifestyles, diet and less obesity in these countries.

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Greg Ip points out in this WSJ analysis that the new NAFTA after negotiations and warnings from Mr. Trump to scrap NAFTA, is not very different from the old NAFTA. Mexico made concessions on auto exports and labor rights, wages. Canada made concessions for the dairy industry. Yet the combined influence of business interests, Canada's lobbying in U.S. Congress and state governments, and the restraint shown by Trump's own advisers prevailed in limiting Mr. Trump's tendencies to go for a "America first" agenda. It shows, says Ip, that there is resilience in the existing order.  It also shows what future trade negotiations with the European Union and Japan over steel and autos could look like. President Trump will continue to face resistance within from his advisers and from exporters, business, Congress, on following an exclusively "America First" agenda. President Trump will need to extol NAFTA in its current version the USMCA, U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, to get it through the U.S. Congress in 2019.   Mexico's main concessions on autos were to agree to potential tariffs if exports exceed 2.6 million vehicles.  This keeps Mexico's status as a major auto export hub intact. Auto experts say VW and Mazda may simply pay the tariff of 2.5% for lower priced models assembled in Mexico that do not qualify for duty free entry instead of shifting production to the U.S. Current shipments from Mexico are not affected as U.S. demand is weak. Labor rights and higher wages in Mexico's auto industry are a win-win for Mexico and the U.S.. They are supported by the socialist administration of newly elected Mexican president Obrador. Canada's main concession was to expand U.S. access to Canada's protected dairy industry, with Canada already prepared to make the concession. Mr. Trump had also to consider the possibility that excluding Canada from the USMCA would have not passed Congress, and face even more resistance in a Democratic controlled Congress after 2019 elections.  The support Canada has received in Congress does not extend to China, which gets much less support in Congress, leading to higher uncertainty in the negotiations with China and possibly different outcome with the size of the trade imbalance of $1 billion a day factored in.   ...

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Of NYT's decades old indifference, an almost Churchill like distance and indifference to the aspirations of the people of South Asia it can be said- indifference to the aspirations of 1.4 billion people to modernize the country with the same infrastructure that Europe and the US, Japan, and now China take for granted. Indifference to the problems in creating a nation  with 13 languages and 1.4 billion people that has a freely elected parliament never before done in history, one which also delivers on banking accounts, health care, infrastructure, for all its  people, of all races and religions. This indifference runs counter to everything that Indians admire about America. And a lack of awareness of what Indians admire today about the Biden administration's promise to make the words of Jefferson true in America as the Modi administration does in India- "We hold these truths to be self-evident that all men are created equal, (created equal) and that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights, among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness." The NYT's indifference to this inequality both in the US and in India run counter to the founding principles of Jefferson and of India's saint from Wardha, Mohandas Gandhi, who both fought the British empire at the height of its prominence.  ...

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See these really remarkable black and white pictures of what happens in a period of decay for industrialized economies as old industries die out- as happened in the UK,  in the US with communities left without hope. Only now with Biden and Starmer a new sense of purpose for the US and UK to correct what went woefully wrong- no plans for transition to new industries and outshoring of the nation's industrial base. This exhibition of 20/20 of photos taken by Kilip and Smith in black and white is at the Parr Gallery in Bristol, UK- you can see it here by clicking on original article right now. It is the failure to plan for the transition that has led the Conservatives from Thatcher onwards to the situation today, and a similar situation in the US from Reagan onwards. The haphazard transition has let China take the lead in new industries with government support. Only now is America under Biden making a real transition and backing up new industries for factory jobs with government support and planning for the next 10 years. Britain with the Conservatives in charge is without a clue and financially strapped- the mood in Birtiain is now for Labour under Starmer to right things the way Biden is doing in the US.  ...

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Thomas Piketty is France's and Europe's best trained economist today with highly popular books, one on Capital, and one on Capital and Ideology. Piketty was trained at the London School of Economics, where Greens leader Annalena Baerbock of Germany was also a student, and today he is professor at LSE. His research has shown that for economic growth to happen after the pandemic European societies need to take the lead and build fairer societies where everyone has a decent living and a fair share of the pool of resources in each country. Piketty is respected by leaders that range from Biden and Scholz in US and Germany to president Xi in China. Biden's Families and Workers plan and Scholz's plan for dignity of workers and working class, and the Common Prosperity campaign of president Xi for greater investments in education, healthcare and housing are all inspired by Piketty and by the socially conscious background of these leaders. Prime minister Modi's plans for Jal Jeevan, cooking gas, to ease the burden on hundreds of millions of Indian women, for farmers with small land holdings in agriculture to improve output and use less chemicals, and for investments in infrastructure projects, housing, are also coming from similar concerns for growth and fairness. ...

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The anti-corruption bill for creation of a Lokpal agency passed the lower and upper house of the Indian parliament in December 2013. It was stalled for two years after the efforts of political activist Anna Hazare's protest movement for passage of the bill. With national elections approaching in 2014 and the ruling Congress party's image bruised badly in state elections of Dec. 2013, party leaders decided to support the bill. In the elections in the capital Delhi a anti-corruption party, Aaam Aadmi (for the common man), created only recently, won a major part of the seats. In India corruption hurts not only at the national and local level as in China, but affects the daily life of the common man as bribes are required from ordinary people for anything to get done that requires approval from the huge government bureaucracy. In that sense it takes a toll on economic development and affects the quality of services received by the vast majority of people, which is why the party calls itself "common man."...

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Did you know that SUV's are the second largest source of emissions after Power. We hear a lot about aviation which is much smaller but little about SUV's in the impact on climate change. SUV's make up about 40% of cars in Britain, and higher in the U.S. at 43%, 40% worldwide an astounding sixfold increase from 32 million to 200 million since 2010. People may even be driving an SUV and talking a lot about climate change.

Any savings from electric cars expected to grow from 2 million to 20 million by 2030  will be offset by more SUV's on the road. This is the view of the International Energy Agency in its recent report. Again all the talk about electric cars as a way to address climate change misses what is really happening in automobiles. Even in China the SUV's make up 42% of sales, and in India 30%. It is more profitable to make SUV's and they are harder to electrify adding 25% to energy consumed compared to cars. 

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In this audio BBC Witness History talks with Shuji Nakamura, the inventor of the LED lightbulb in 1992.  Nakamura shows the resilience and stubborn persistence against the odds that has given the world an extraordinary invention. The LED bulb does great things for climate change action because for example Califonria uses 35% of its electricity for lighting. The LED bulb cuts this in half and this means many coal fired power plants are not needed. In India, Indonesia and China this means lighting for about 3 billion people, with lighting for children studying in remote parts of India and China, and in Africa and Latin America. Nakamura took an unconventional route. He did his PhD in Japan not by going to school which is allowed in Japan, but by writing a paper on White LED development. He made a single minded focus on this goal. Nakamura says it made him angry that no one wanted to try new ideas and he persisted for years of research. At the time GaN research was done by less than one percent of researchers. Nakamura decided to try the path less trodden and by 1992 developed a blue light emitting LED bulb. Add phospor particles and blue becomes bright white LED. ...

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Sharp showed a loss of $3.1 billion for the third quarter of 2012, far larger than expected. Sharp's new forecast is for losses of $5.6 billion for 2012. Sharp CEO, Takashi Okuda, even said the company has "material doubts" about its survival because of "serious negative operating cash flow." Sharp made large bets on LCD panel manufacturing with large investments in added capacity as the television market turned into a commodity business with declining prices and with new competition from China. Just one factory in Sakai, Japan, could manufacture 6 million LCD panels a year- the total global market size at the time. Two other events hurt Sharp- missing the smartphone shift with the introduction of the iPhone in Japan in 2008 leading to a sharp drop in sales, and the collapse of the solar business with cheap products from China. The global economic crisis and overstretched consumers in the U.S. and Europe led to declining sales. Sharp's new factories for LCD panels at Kaneyama now make panels for iPads and iPhones. ...

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About half of people in Britain in a recent poll taken during the second wave of coronavirus say they see a negative impact on mental health. Depression is affecting a fifth of the population in Britain. It has never been more important to be kind to each other and ourselves as the second wave hits a weary and fatigue stricken society.  People found many activities and hobbies to do during the 6 week lockdown period and there was an expectation that spring would bring better conditions. During the second wave of coronavirus there is a sense of a dreary period that goes on through Christmas. The uncertainty from the U.S. elections, Brexit in Britain, the reopening in countries such as India, the loss of jobs and income in countries that range from severe in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina to moderate in China, adds to the anxiety of daily life with surging cases. Creating what amounts to a low grade depressive effect during the second wave that needs to be addressed by the authorites, by health agencies, and in other ways, says this report in The Times. ...

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SMIC China Shanghai and the latest chip making science and technology,  the competition with the US in chips science, is covered in this report in NYT. The Biden administration and vice president Harris are committed to keeping America's lead in science and technology by investing heavily and working with partners in the EU, South Korea and Japan. For the first time in decades the US is protecting its science and technology and its competitiveness, something that administrations since Reagan- Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Trump miserably failed to do.