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As jobs grow even with repeated increases in interest rates in 2023, inflation slows to 2.6%, unemployment rate at 3.7%, consumer sentiment is up 29% in 2 months in a UMich survey highest since 1991.US jobs growth of 353,000 in January 2024 the best in a year, twice what experts had predicted. The December figures were also revised upward by the Labor Department from 216,000 to 333,000. Unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Wages increased by 4.5%. Job gains in 2023 were mostly in government, healthcare, hotels and restaurants. In January growth was healthy across all private sector industries. The Fed's preferred inflation rate guage was 2.6% in December. Even with repeated increases in the interest rate by the Fed, growth is strong. Much of it could be attributed to the strong investment in infrastructure, and in manufacturing, US technologies by the Biden administration with help of bipartisan support in Congress.

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Porter points out that the Reagan tax cuts did little for the bottom half or one of two Americans, leaving them just where they were before the tax cuts. He cites World Wealth and Income Database data showing they earned $16,371 a year on average in today's dollars in 1980, by 1988 when Reagan left office they made $16,268. The Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 had the same result, with income before tax cuts at $17,827 and when Bush left office at $17,473, accounting for inflation. After factoring in taxes and transfers this was up only 0.4% a year. Under Reagan the top 1% increased income by 6% a year.

The distribution nature of the 2017 tax cuts do not suggest a different outcome from the Reagan and Bush tax cuts as they are designed disproportionately favoring the highest incomes, not even the higher incomes, and leaving the lower incomes practically untouched.

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This story by Emmarie Huetteman describes the effort of three Republican women in the U.S. Senate who had the courage to listen to the different voices in their home state and use their informed judgement in deciding how to vote on a Republican healthcare bill or Affordable Care Act repeal effort. Especially when they heard that it would hurt people in their state, the elderly, low income and other vulnerable people without offering alternatives. Even when this meant resisting pressure from fellow Republicans. The senators are Capito of West Virginia, Collins of Maine, and Murkowski of Alaska. This is particularly significant at a time when too much polarization has led to paralysis in coming up with informed discussion and good solutions to problems. It is also significant that senators from the midwestern states such as Iowa- Mr Grassley, and Kansas- Mr. Moran, also joined the effort to listen first to people back home in their districts before making up their mind. 

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The crisis came after finance minister FDP's Lindner wrote a paper calling for slashing corporate taxes, reducing welfare benefits, and reducing climate related regulations. It was seen as a provocation by the other partners Green's Habeck and SPD's Scholz leading to the firing of Lindner by Scholz. From the beginning of this coalition over its 4 years FDP has prevented major investments in the German economy the Social Democrats and Greens had promised in the last election. By contrast Biden invested over a trillion dollars in infrastructure and manufacturing leading to strong growth in the US and weak or no growth in the German economy. The Free Democrats are very conservative in spending, even though the Western economies need added investment in infrastructure. FDP's popularity is less than 4 percent. Social Democrats have lost trust with workers as a result of not keeping their promises for investment and growth. 

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After S&P downgraded 17% of its Triple A-rated structured finance securities in 2010, the company has faced intense scrutiny about how it rates securities. Mark Adelson joined S&P in May 2008. He is the chief credit officer of S&P, and the man most responsible for S&P's efforts to reestablish its credibility as a ratings firm. He worked for Moody's in the late 1990's, before joining the research team at Nomura Securities in 2001. Adelson made changes to the S&P ratings system for mortgage securities in 2009, which resulted in cutting the ratings of 68% of its commercial-mortgage securities. Adelson also helped set the new S&P criteria on sovereign debt rating issued on June 30, 2011.

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One of the severe problems noted in the recall disaster of 2010 was that practically all important quality and safety decisions are made in Japan. Without key American decisionmakers in the process this leaves Toyota exposed to all sorts of errors like the errors that ocurred in stalling the National Highway and Traffic Safety investigations into acceleration and braking accidents in Toyota vehicles. To compound theses errors managment at Toyota focussed on the $100 million in savings that avoiding or minimizing the recalls would generate, as revealed in internal documents. Early warning signs of similiar problems in Europe were not linked to problems in the U.S.. All this was ocurring against the backdrop of a change in management at Toyota- with the Toyota family once again regaining control of the company- and the failure of the management under Watanabe and previous CEO's to put quality before rapid expansion. The new changes are to have 2 new senior executive positions in the U.S. to focus on quality and safety. A chief safety executive will focus on safety and recalls, and a chief quality officer coming from the top ranks of the American operation will now sit on a special committee for Global Quality led by CEO Akio Toyoda. The commitee for Global Quality will address the global quality issues around one table with the highest ranking executives at Toyota right at the table to talk things out. ...

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The FDIC acknowledges that it has not been able to get banks interested in a pilot program called the Legacy Loans Program. That program was designed to give the banks an opportunity to sell off $1 billion of troubled mortgages. Since November with the efforts of the Troubled Asset Program under Secretary Paulson to have the banks sell off these assets in an auction or some other way, the whole issue of getting the toxic or troubled assets off the books of the banks has been effectively shelved. The Obama administration's version of this was the Geithner Public Private Partnership program, but this like Paulson's TARP never really got off the ground. Instead several things have happened that have enabled banks to show higher profits and improve stock prices. The period from March 2009 to June 2009, a period of several months has seen bank stock prices recover and banks are now able to raise capital on their own from investors. The government's "stress tests" gave the banks credibility with investors and they were designed not to be so stringent as to affect confidence. The mark to market rule has also been relaxed so that banks are no longer required to show these toxic assets at prices that reflect large losses. Bank executives also are wary of the new executive compensation rules of the government. All of these things have combined to create asituation where some confidence has been restored, but at the same time experts are pointing out that the underlying problems of an estimated $1 trillion in troubled assets remains. Banks are even less likely to want to part with these assets at lower prices now that some semblence of confidence is returning, as they would then have to show large losses. What this implies is that if the economy suffered a setback, these problems would return and be just as intractable as ever....

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Sheila Bair releases her new book in Sept 2012 on the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the efforts to introduce financial reforms for a safer financial system: "Bull By the Horns: Fighting to Save Main Street from Wall Street and Wall Street from Itself." She is particularly critical of U.S. Treasury Secretary, and former head of the New York Federal Reserve, Timothy Geithner, as protecting the interests of Citigroup and Wall Street in his position as Treasury Secretary of the U.S. government. She describes in detail the situations in which Geithner tried to water down essential reforms to the financial system to make it safer, including the Volcker Rule. Of particular concern is the revolving door by which banking regulators or government officials join banks after service in the government which leads to weakening of regulatory and government oversight and systemic risks as in 2008-2009. Sheila Bair is widely respected for her efforts during the financial crisis from 2008 to 2011, when she headed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the FDIC. Her active involvement in defending reforms and setting up the system by which financially failing banks could be taken over and unwound without risks to the U.S. financial system are lasting contributions. She also succeeded as a manager by setting up an experienced and effective successor in Martin Gruenberg as head of the FDIC, to continue this work. A former Congresswoman, she describes herself as a Republican populist from Kansas. Her current role is as senior advisor to the Pew Charitable Trusts, which itself is a rare phenomenon today for a senior government official leaving government....

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General Electric, GE, experienced a steep decline in the last decade. The worst news came in 2018 with the loss of half its share price and market value. One story tells about an employee who was forced out of retirement back to work seeing the loss of value in GE shares in 2018. Rarely has a company of this size seen a fall in stock price this steep, for a stock that was once seen as safe for widows. About 60% of GE business comes from jet engines, electric power generators and wind turbines. GE now plans to sell its health care business and other business that do not relate to core infrastructure in energy, aerospace, and other markets. Under Jack Welch a faulty model of adding diverse businesses that had nothing to do with its core business and expertise in infrastructure were added. A home mortgage lending business was added and GE Capital expanded. NBC Universal was added with little justification in a period when CEO's acted without much consultation. The home mortgage lending unit collapsed with large losses during the 2008 financial crisis and GE's share price dropped drastically to $6.00. Under Welch's successor Mr. Immelt the GE Capital unit was shrunk in size, but losses continued to mount. An oil field service unit was added which also sustained losses.  Immelt's successor Flannery faced a loss of $15 billion from the financial lending unit. Sale of some businesses was not sufficient to meet the loss. Flannery is now taking GE out of all the businesses which were not core business. The NBC Universal television business was sold to Comcast in 2013. GE Healthcare is next. This closes a bad chapter in GE's story under Welch and Immelt. GE's dividend was cut for the second time since the Great Depression. The story of GE is also the story of American business during the last two decades, with icons such as GM, Ford and GE suffering decline, businesses that operated like little fiefdoms of old nobility in Europe, with CEO's operating in a CEO centric culture, not tolerating contrary opinion for informed debate on issues facing the business. Alfred Sloan founder of Genral Motors called constructive debate central to good management. Later Intel CEO Andy Grove coined the phrase constructive confrontation as a way of constructive debate, and the CEO was shown as the first of equals. The CEO centric management ignored these warnings and admonitions in running their fiefdoms.   ...

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The view from Germany on Trump's economic plan and the need for changes by his advisors. DW.com's Wenkel says Trump needs to understand that 80% of job losses in recent years have come from not from globalization, but automation and higher productivity, rationalization. He says higher tariffs on Mexico could backfire.

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In this exceptional piece Krugman says Greece has won flexibility in the negotiations with the EU in April 2015, contrary to the media coverage. He says under the Samaras government negotiated agreement with the EU the primary surplus, the difference between the revenue and expenditures not including interest on debt, would have to be triple what it would be now for the next few years. This is the only figure that matters, says Krugman, as it is the amount that is transferred to the creditors. The Syriza government plans to run only a small primary surplus, which itself involves large sacrifices in Greece with the drop in revenues from the decline in the economy. Language about future surpluses is left obscure, and Greece continues to get financing for the next few months. In other areas Syriza agreed to structural reforms in the labor market regulations, and to take strong action against tax evasion, which he describes as constructive steps on the path to economic recovery.

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China's tariffs on US products could be called self-respect tariffs as US exports to China are small compared to China's $1 trillion surplus a year. $143 billion mainly oilseeds and grains! US business not willing to rely on US labor created the outshoring that built Chinese industrial growth, shipping out technology in the process, that created this situation. Consultants to Apple at the time such as myself bringing Total Quality of Management from Japan to the US, could see the failure of production quality at the Colorado Springs plant just before Steve Jobs returned to the company in 1998. About 20-25% of PC product was defective on the production lines seen with my own eyes. Looking back I believe it was not just the workers but the managers and engineering that needed to guide and motivate the workers with new ways to build in quality control. These were the days when Apple's Steve Jobs hired Tim Cook to revamp production and ship it to China. American workers got blamed. Yet as Jim Carlton shows in "Apple the Inside Story of Intrigue, Egomania, and Business Blunders," by 1996 a new German CEO Michael Spindler 1993-1996 had driven the company to the ground. The struggle with Microsoft gave Jobs an idea- by shifting production to a low cost location he could make the high margins to outinvest all competitors with new products-ipods, iphones, ipads. There is nothing wrong with American workers and their craftsmanship. Timeline- Steve Jobs returns to Apple 1997-1998 Tim Cook is hired from Compaq to revamp manufacturing in 1998 1999-2000 - the strategy is made to shift all of the production to China. Jobs could generate the margins and quality to challenge Microsoft, and profits to invest in new products 2020 -   the weakness of the strategy is apparent with supply side shock for chips and computers with the pandemic stopping shipping 2024 - after taking small steps to shift production to India does little to shift back to America 2025- Apple facing serious tariffs and the country's mood shifting to Make in the USA tells the new US president DJT it will invest $500 billion to shift production back to America. ...

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By offering the prospect of higher returns in a low return environment venture capital firms are raising new funds at the highest rate in 15 years in 2016. Venture Capital firms have raised about $13 billion in the first quarter of 2016 from pension funds, endowment funds, and other sources, with about 50% of the funds going to about 7% of the total number of firms, according to Venture Source- including $2 billion to Accel Partners, other firms are Andreeson, Founders Fund, Kleiner Perkins. The returns for ten years from venture capital are about 11% compared to 6.8% for S&P 500 index, according to Cambridge Associates. Usually the fund capital raising lags behind market downturns. Much of the returns for some of the startups are not reflected in cash inflows with returns being large on paper, and startup financing has increased for firms, resulting in capital shortages and more fund raising in the industry.