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The growing risk of coronavirus delta variant from the filled soccer stadiums in places such as Budapest, Hungary, St. Petersburg, Russia, Copenhagen, Denmark. Where many were not wearing masks and social distancing of any sort was not done. Covid researchers say the risk is real and DW.com looks at what is happening at the games in many European cities and stadiums in summer 2021.

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US president Biden now plans to break the $2 trillion Build Back Better into smaller pieces so that where there is greatest support such as early childhood education, action on climate change, and other parts of Build Back Better, these parts can move forward in 2022. This is seen by Biden as a better strategy to accomplish the same goals.

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Inflation is down in industrialized countries of Europe and in the US. Inflation has dropped from about 10% to about 3% in the US and Europe. In the Netherlands prices are lower than a year earlier. In the eurozone inflation dropped to 2.9% in October from 4.3% in September. In 2024 further decline in inflation is expected as retail sales slow or decline.

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Nate Cohn looks at Biden and support he could draw from young, non-white and "irregular" voters in 2024. Many of them were uncertain even though they were Democrats. Irregular voters are young voters who are disengaged and do not follow events and who are low turnout, mostly from Democratic constituencies who have supported Republicans and Mr. Trump but lack any specific loyalty.

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The US loses to Morocco in the quarter finals of the 2024 Olympics 4-0. Morocco outplayed the US in every dimension with shots on target 8 for Morocco only one for the US. This shows how countries in the Arab world and in Africa are outperforming in the Paris Olympics. Egypt won over Spain one of the best European teams 2-1.

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This WSJ report points out that upto this point the US volatility index in 2024 has been very low. The drop in the US stock market on August 5, started with the effects of monetary tightening in Japan and its effect on the market in the US. Because of this the underlying situation in the US, the underlying low volatility has not changed.

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Yale University professor Robert Shiller, founded CAPE, the cyclically adjusted and inflation adjusted S&P price earnings ratio. It takes the average of the 10 past years of earnings and the inflation adjusted S&P 500 index to arrive at this CAPE P/E ratio. Here he looks at CAPE in 2000, 2007 and 2013, to get a sense of where the U.S. stock market stands today and investor confidence. In 2000 CAPE reached 46, in 2007 it was at 27 and in 2013 it has reached 23. The historical average for CAPE is 15- this goes back in data to 1871. Zweig in the WSJ March 8, 2013, cites data from the last 50 years showing the historical adjusted P/E at 19.7. The investor confidence in the stock market or "valuation confidence" based on work done by Shiller is at 72% for institutional investors and 62% for individual investors in 2013, it was about 80% for both categories before the market peak in 2007. This data is on the website of the Yale School of Management. Shiller says the levels of optimism can fluctuate and change easily, requiring careful thinking by investors. He confirms Browning's assertion in the WSJ March 6, 2013, that in inflation adjusted terms investors are not ahead in the last 13 years, when compared to 2000, based on the inflation corrected S&P Composite total return index....

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Jeremy Carl is the nominee for Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs (including UN) in Feb. 2026. He is a research fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. His BA is from Yale where he was president of the student union, and his Masters is from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.  From 2004-2005 he was a visiting fellow at the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi, India.This article says he has been critical of Jewish attitudes yet he comes from a Jewish family and is now a member of the Presbyterian church. He was Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Interior in the first term of DJT. His recent book is on the theme of how the culture and attitude of America was culture an attitude of vast majority of the population from 1600 till 1965 for about 400 years. The Immigration laws of 1965 under JFK/Johnson, he says were not intended to change this, yet a change and relaxation of tight immigration policy has led to the situation similar to what Eisenhower faced in 1954 that led to Operation Wetback- as Mexican immigration surged in the war years by the early 1950's. For 150 years before 1965 the US only opened up for Europeans immigrating to the US. The changes since 1965 coincided with deindustrializationn of the US and the failure of the governing class to do anything about the steady shipping out the nation's manufacturing sector to China. Which is why there is so much anxiety about America's position in the world and a sense of a culture that is being lost- of Robert Frost's poetry set in New Hampshire, of Shakespeare's plays and morals for Western civilization, of the values of Emerson and Thoreau that guided Gandhiji and other Asian leaders. ...

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Yoon Suk Yeol from visit to Biden at White House as South Korea's president to jail sentence for life for ordering arrests and deploying military troops on Dec 3 2024. It shows the unstable situation for democracy and politics in South Korea, with the country polarized. It is much more polarized than the US  or Europe. South Korea may have advanced rapidly with its economy using Japan as a model, yet the political situation in South Korea and the Korean peninsula remains highly unstable. By comparison India has a long history of elected assemblies in the states and regions dating back to the 1936-37 provincial assembly elections under the British- nearing a century of democratic self government by 2036, ten years from now. Even the shorter period of elected government in South Korea was interrupted by dictatorships and the military rule. The Indian Constitution modeled on the unwritten constitution of Britain and the written one in the US, has the allegiance of a population of 1.4 billion people, unprecedented in the history of mankind. There are as many languages in India as in Europe and the media is lively in every language, so that it is an encounter that is the one of the wonders of the world to know and grow up inside India in the second half of the twentieth and the first part of the 21st century. It is also the first modernization effort in the context of Britoish and American democratic forms of government for over 1.4 billion people, almost 2 billion people counting other regions such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, that use India as their role model. The economic dynamism of the region required integration of sorts with the European Union and the US for scientific and industrial cooperation at every level which is now happening. ...

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Edward Johnson and daughter Abby Johnson- Fidelity Investments succession turmoil and Abby Johnson emerging as CEO is covered in a new book- House of Fidelity by Justin Baer, Deputy Markets Editor WSJ. CEO Edward Johnson (Ned) failed to come up with a succession plan and executives under him were planning to sell the company to Chase or another bank. Ned had talked to Chase's Dimon in 2005 and said he was not interested in selling the company founded by his father. Yet this is what executives under Ned, Reynolds had in mind, who did not have confidence in Abby Johnson's leadership. Fidelity Investments has recovered from poor performance in that period and manages the pension plans of employers in the US, being the largest in this business. In 2026 Fidelity manages life savings of 20% of American adults and 50% of these customers signed up in last 5 years, says WSJ. After a period in her performance in the mutual funds business which was not great Abby was listed for demotion by executives under her father, who would sent her to run the philanthropy part of the business. It shows how awoman now 64 years struggled through this period and took the bold step of defying her father through control of 41% of the stock of the company to gain control of the company- a step that led to her father relenting and letting Abby run the company. It is a tale of how in such situations even the most favored can be put at a disadvantage by perceptions - in this case by Reynolds of Abby's leadership and ability- and need to act swiftly and decisively after impressions have been formed that lead to an outcome that doesn't need to occur. Her father Ned even though he in his younger period was a good stock picker, failed in two ways. By not planning a clear succession and lacking confidence in his daughter to overcome temporary obstacles. ...

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This report in the WSJ points out inflammatory content posted in India by Facebook that creates divisiveness in India between communtiies and ethnic groups, revealed in a WSJ Investigation. This comes at a time when the Indian government is focusing all its efforts and energies on building infrastructure and development projects under "sab ka vikas, sab ke saath, sab ka prayas, sab ka viswas," which means development for all, by all, with everyone's efforts, and with everyone's confidence." Polaraized content has no place in the country and its mission for development for all.  This report says the Indian government has threatened to jail employees of Facebook, its WhatsApp messaging service, and Twitter Inc. if they did'nt comply with data or take down requests, as reported in WSJ in February. The Indian government is determined to take action to prevent such content or content harmful to children being put out. In 2020 India banned TikTok and other social media platforms. Twitter was asked to block hundreds of accounts in India for posting what was seen as inflammatory material by the Indian government, according to this report. ...

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U.S. GDP growth for the 1st quarter of 2013 was at an annualized pace of 2.5%.

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Even China has not campaigned the way Canada, Mexico and British, American media have against DJT Tariffs because China knows it is basically about getting an even playing field when it is the only country with $1 trillion in trade in its favor in 2024, 12 times the Japanese high of $82 billion trade surplus in 2007. But why should China campaign when the American and British, German media are going to do the job for China? A simple quiz to K-12 would ask school children when is the last time a country has a $1 trillion trade surplus? Answer: Never. Greg Ip has written a few years back that the devastation of China outshoring of American factories and jobs was unlike the 1980's Japan trade invasion because of first China's size, second by the speed with which it happened at 10-14% Chinese GDP growth. There is a third Japan was an ally needing US for security and backed down, China's case is different it is challenging the US for control of the world economy and will fight this one over the long haul. Greg Ip of WSJ on the 53 countries asking to negotiate US Liberation Day April 2, 2025 Tariffs. These countries include Allies of the US in full support asking to negotiate Israel, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, India Allies of the US in partial support asking to negotiate Britain Allies of the US not in full support asking to negotiate Germany, France Allies of the US in the past campaigning against the US, asking to negotiate Canada, Mexico Not Allies of the US, not in full support, not campaigning against the US China A look at his list tells one only one thing, mostly all trading partners except for the $146 billion exports of the US which represents exports to China are the exports that are at risk if things don't work out on tariffs. This is what the media today WSJ added this last week to the NYT, Wash. Post and the BBC, Guardian of UK, German media will not tell the reader.  The DJT Tariffs and Tariff negotiations are Lighthizer Tariff negotiations which won the fight with Japan in the 1980's over unfair trade and gaining a level playing field. Lighthizer as Deputy US Trade Representative conducted the tough negotiations with Japan. He was USTR in 2016-2020 and his Deputy Jamieson is now USTR in 2025       ...

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"Made in China 2025" has caused consternation and alarm in Washington about China's effort to dominate key industries of the future with state subsidies. This report in WSJ shows the European response to China's effort. A survey by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China shows 58% of companies have not been able to participate in Made In China initiatives. There is concern that global supply chains are not being utilized in robotics, aerospace, and electric vehicles, three areas under China's program.  62% of companies say they didn't know whether this was leading to increased discrimination against foreign companies.

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A sharp decline in gold prices in 2013 of 19% by October 2013 as central banks in developing economies cut back on holdings of gold. Emerging market economies such as Russia diversified their foreign exchange holdings by buying gold in the period following 2009. With depreciating currencies, efforts to intervene in currency markets and need for foreign exchange as growth slows, central banks in developing economies have cut back on gold purchases. In 2013 central banks are expected to reduce goldbuying by 34%, according to Thomson Reuters GFMS. Private investors fearing rising inflation as the U.S. Federal Reserve loosened monetary policy also increased purchases of gold in this period. With inflation remaining low in 2013 the interest in gold is declining, especially as it does not offer any return and alternative invesments are becoming more attractive.

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French approach to social media for children- parliamentary inquiry recommendations in 2025. Macron is taking the lead on this issue.

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Most of the reporting on Ukraine follows the war. Questions are asked how will this conflict end? This report in Der Spiegel is one of the rare reports that looks at the Ukrainian economy with images and reporting from the ground that answer that question. If the Ukrainian economy is surviving in 2023 then Ukraine will continue long after a peace settlement is reached. It shows for instance that supermarket shelves are well stocked. It shows energy from half a million generators keeps the lights on and companies working in Ukraine. The steel industry is mostly destroyed yet the software industry continues to grow. Unemployment is 30% even after hundreds of thousands of younger Ukrainians are at the war front. Of about $62 billion promised by US and European countries about $31 billion has actually been transferred to Ukraine. The IMF has created an exception for aid to Ukraine with offices in Kviv and Brussels. All defense needs are covered from the Ukraine budget. Before the invasion in Feb 2021 defense took up 9% of the budget, now it takes up 42% of the budget. Another 16% for public security. For social benefits 16%, and another 26% for other expenditures. By having an economy that is functioning and life even in light from generators and solar energy, with supermarkets well stocked and providing office space for workers, with aid mechanisms working. Ukraine has already emerged as part of Europe, tried, tested and come through adversity of the worst sort. It is supposed to join the European Union, yet Der Spiegel says it is already tightly integrated into the EU. Its power grid was integrated with the EU power grid before the war, and nuclear power was sent to the EU from Ukraine before Russian attacks on the nuclear plant. Then transmission lines brought energy to Ukraine from the EU. The EU takes in 80% of Ukraine agricultural exports compared to 20% before the war. Even at the risk of lower prices and hurting farmers in Poland, the Polish government has allowed large imports of agricultural products into Poland. The close links with countries of the EU that share a border with Russia have increased. The problems now are that Ukraine after this war will have severe shortage of manpower. Already with the fall of the Soviet Union Ukraine lost about 8 million people and population was 44 million before the war. About 8 million people moved to Ukraine in the one year following Russian invasion. Of this 1.5 million stayed in Poland, the rest went on to other countries in the EU or returned. The countries such as Germany, Finland, Czech Republic have labor shortages of their own and encourage refugees to stay. Rebuilding is estimated to cost $131 billion. Yet as is evident in Poland after most of the damage from the second world war in Poland it was rebuilt using modern technology. Ukraine survives, its life goes on, is the message from Der Spiegel. In this way the war's outcome is already evident. Much of it comes from the European Union having sensed that attacks made with impunity would endanger all of the European countries when made by any dominant power. This is also what Cambridge historian Brendan Simms has shown about European history for the past 500 years in History of Europe- The struggle for Supremacy 1452 to the present. No one country says Simms was able to act with impunity and pose athreat to its neighbors as all other countries in Europe rallied to prevent this. This war is no exception.   ...

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China's consumer price index went up by 2.1% in March 2013, slower inflation than the 3.2% for February 2013. Food prices are growing at a slower rate, increasing by 2.7% in March over the prior year month, compared to a 6% increase over the prior year month in February.

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Turkey's elections for parliament and for president are on May 14, 2023. President Erdogan is running again after two decades in power. Turkey faces high inflation of over 57% which has created a serious cost of living crisis in Turkey. Erdogan has issued a wide range of stimulus measures- energy subsidies, a doubling of the minimum wage, pension increases, and a chance for 2 million retirees to retire immediately. A kilogram of tomatoes used to cost 8-10 liras and now costs 25 liras. Rents are going up with steep increases. Turkey has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine as it depends on Ukraine for grain supplies. A popular mayor of Istabul Ekrem Imamoglu from the Opposition is shown here as an alternative for president. Erdogan started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul with the military opposing him. His management of the economy helped him win two terms as president, which is now in a severe crisis.

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David Enrich of the NYT looks at the collapse of Signature bank and SVB Bank and the role of lobbying that led to president Trump setting up new legislation raising size of banks facing Fed regulatory scrutiny from $50 billion to $250 billion. Signature Bank and the author of the regulatory law after the financial crisis of 2008 caused by faulty bank practices -who in one of the anomalies of Congress joined the bank's board for 7 years and resigned this week-  lobbied with SVB bank for less regulation and government oversight. President Biden has learned from the mistakes of this Obama period, as shown by Jim Tankersley in his reporting in the NYT. this week. And made clear from Biden's State of the Union address in 2023, his effort to focus on cutting the deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years by getting everyone to pay their fair share of taxes.

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It was not till 1.39 am in the early hours of the morning of January 7, 2023, that the just elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy swore in all the new members of the 118th House. This ended a week of voting that went into 15 rounds before five Republican member holdouts of 20 rebels voted "present" to make it possible to elect Kevin McCarthy as the new Speaker. A bitter fight led to concessions being made to Freedom Caucus members who wanted to limit spending and cut spending on infrastructure and defense. McCarthy opted for the route of repeated ballots to avoid making concessions on who controls key committees and to limit concessions to ab out 20 rebel members of the Republican Congress. The vast majority of remaining members do not share these views including Democrats who make up about half of the House and many Republican members of Congress.

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UK prime minister Sunak makes changes to policies of the UK post-Brexit that bring the UK closer to France and the European Union. This follows a deterioration of Britain's relations with the EU and France under Boris Johnson during the years Brexit happened. Sunak also comes up with a different policy for Northern Ireland closer to the EU's position. Mark Landler has covered Britain and the EU for NYT over three decades. He calls Boris Johnson's approach bombastic and one that made loud claims for "Global Britain" with little to show in results.

Sunak's challenges are in Britain with strikes across transportation, health sector and NHS, and the cost of living crisis. Labour party is seen as having better solutions and as more caring in its policies for both the environment, workers and families in 2023.

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This amazing story about Bend Oregon is a reminder of the mental health crisis that lurks behind the homelessness crisis in America's cities. It is also most unusual because it is about the Mayor of Bend, Oregon, grandson of the mayor of Bend, Oregon then a timber capital in the 1900's, who is a public defender attorney, and finds himself at at a homeless shelter in 2023 in the city he built, the result of mental health issues. He reconciles with two daughters before his death after periods of isolation from his family and ending up in a homeless tent on city streets. At one point he had helped turn Bend into a tourist destination pushing up average home prices to $800,000 to protect residents when timber demand dropped. He finds himself unable to afford a home in this very same town after his mental illness and losing his job.

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2023 is the year of huge aviation orders. Some even say this may stave off a recession. Biden says this would create 1 million jobs in the US. Modi names about 10 American states that will benefit from India's growing civilian and military aircraft needs. The biggest order in aviation history was one of 500 single aisle planes from Airbus by India's Indigo Airlines. Before this order Air India made an order of 470 planes from Airbus and Boeing. Riyadh Air and the Saudi airline also place large orders. 

WSJ cautions that it takes 6 years for planes on order to be delivered. There are production and regulatory issues. Some of the orders can be pared down. One expert says it is a way to get in line for planes to be delivered by planning ahead as the Indians have done by foresight about rapidly growing demand.

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After hurricane Helene only about 10% of FEMA workers are available for Hurricane Milton headed towards the Tampa Bay Area at 175 miles per hour.

Christopher Flavelle of NYT  points out FEMA desperately needs more funding and staff as it is responding simultaneously to many disasters. The full effects of climate change in more and more natural disasters all across the US have not been taken into account for the added funding and staffing needed. In this situation FEMA is spread thin causing other problems such as attrition and burnout and unfilled positions.

The Government Accountability Office report found in 2023 that 35% of FEMA's positions were unfilled, because of “rising disaster activity during the year, which increased burnout and employee attrition.”

There are also lot of people who are out of work in disaster areas who can be pulled in for disaster work.