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China is in isolation and in a freeze in ways that are unprecedented, that have never happened before. It has depressed world trade, disrupted supply chains of world trade, forced companies to restrict their employees movement, or bring them back home. Apple with 10,000 employees has closed operations and offices in China till Feb. 9. This is happening for many foreign companies in China as they deal with something they have never encountered before.  There is slowing down in demand fro crude oil as the lockdown affects the economy of China and world trade, Oil prices dropped 16% since the virus was detected. When the Sars virus happened in 2003 the Chinese economy was sixth in size in the world, now it is the second largest. At that time 7 million Chinese travelled abroad, today it is about 150 million, affecting international tourism. First quarter growth in China is now forecast by economists surveyed by WSJ at 4.9%, the lowest in decades. ...

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Olaf Scolz, Germany's Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance, since 2018. He  wants to counter the myth that individual success is always self-made. As candidate for the Social Democrats he is the leading candidate to succeed Merkel. Scolz believes in genuine "respect." If elected chancellor he will take Germany in a new direction after the Merkel years marked by neglect of infrastructure, increased division among Germans and fragmentation of parties, addressing euro currency issues left behind by her mentor CDU chancellor Helmut Kohl, poor migrant policy that divided German opinion, lack of social mobility for working class Germans, and failing families in childcare, other services.  Biden in the US, Scolz in the European Union, could offer an opportunity for combining the strength of Europe and the US in tackling the problems the world faces today- restructuring supply chains, reducing divisions sown through neglect of families and the working class, climate change, competing with an assertive China using western technology and resources. ...

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 A look up close at US Foreign Trade Representative Katherine Tai, focused on a trade policy that is fair to American workers and workers families. She says "I'm a bicultural kid." One of two children of immigrants in the Biden cabinet, the other Kamala Harris.  With Jake Sullivan and Biden doing everything so that American trade and supply chains are based on pillars of resilience, fairness, respect for American workers and families, to support climate change action and build infrastructure. She has been with the US Office of the Trade Representative and in trade related positions in US Congress since 2007. Tai says what helps is bringing a very disciplined approach, as she deals with the PRC to stay on the message, on what the problem is. As she goes about her work the spirit from her dad carries her everyday- "to go out and win it" for America, for the common people of America. ...

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In this report in TOI, Vijay Gokhale, former foreign secretary, points out the big shift taking place in how Germany like the US is paying attention to its mistake of overconcentrating its supply base and investments in one country, China. This type of overinvestment in one country does not make sense for a country for its supply chain, until one accepts that China succeeded to a great extent in building next generation infrastructure, logistics, and ease of manufacturing in China. India is only now learning this lesson- and Modi's experience in Gujarat stemming from studying China's evolution as an industrial nation. Lessons that are now being applied all over India to do, to build the kind of next generation infrastructure and logistics that would make it attractive to make in India and invest in India for Germany and the US. Gokhale describes the intense discussions that are taking place in the inner circles of all three parties, Merkel's CDU out of power questioning Merkel's policies of building so much concentration of business in China, the SPD questioning why it went along, and the Greens knowing that India is their natural partner and the one partner that thinks and acts most like the Greens Baerbock and Habeck. Baerbock is critical of the sale of a stake in Hamburg port to China. No other German leader is like Baerbock, who feels really at home in India in a way that few German leaders have during her recent visit. There is so much change in the Biden administration and in the three major parties thinking about China and how the future of the western nations rests squarely on India's shoulders and its young aspiring population of 1.2 billion, that even India under Modi's leadership for technological change and infrastructure has not kept pace with these changes. This is why Gokhale calls it tectonic. ...

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Biden's address to Congress after three years of the pandemic marks a turning point for America like Lincoln in 1962 and FDR in 1933. As Biden surveys the damage done to the country not just by Covid loss of 1 million lives, he sees the closing of factories and abandoning of communities that depended on them all over America, abandoned by administrations of either party. Which has led to a loss of faith in the fairness of the system and of democracy itself.  "And two years ago democracy faced its greatest threat since the Civil War. And today though bruised, it remains unbowed and unbroken. . . That's always been my vision for this country, and I know its many of yours. To restore the soul of this nation. To rebuild the backbone of America, America's middle class." Biden sees a complete rebuilding of America to bring back manufacturing, restore American leadership in manufacturing. And invest three hundred billion dollars for the effort that will create jobs and new opportunities.  "For decades, the middle class has been hollowing out, and more than- and no one administration, but for a long time. Too many good paying manufacturing jobs moved overseas. Factories closed down. Once thriving cities and towns that many of you represent became shadows of what they used to be. And along the way, something else we lost. Pride, our sense of self-worth. I ran for president to fundamentally change things, to make sure our economy works for everyone so we can all feel that pride in what we do. To build an economy from the bottom up, not from the top down. Because when the middle class does well, the poor have a ladder up, and the wealthy still do very well. We all do well." "Folks I've been criticized for saying this, but I am not changing my view. We're going to make sure the supply chain for America begins in America. The supply chain begins in America." "And when we do these projects- and again I get criticized for it but I am making no excuses for it- we're going to buy American. We're going to buy American. Folks, and it's totally consistent with international trade rules. Buy American has been the rule since 1933. But for too long, past administrations, Democratic and Republican, have fought to get around it. Not anymore. . . Folks my economic plan is about investing in places and people that have been forgotten. So many of you listening to me tonight, I know you feel it. So many of you felt simply that you've been forgotten. Amid the economic upheaval of the last four decades, too many people have been left behind and treated like they're invisible."   ...

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The US sees no contradiction to India looking for bargain priced oil from Russia to meet the growing needs of its economy and is actually furthering the goals of the G-7 by lowering the price Russia gets for its oil. It helps the economy of 1.2 billion people that like the rest of the world has struggled to fight the pandemic and has incurred the kind of heath costs that even China is now struggling to pay for. President Biden clearly understands and supports this. Democracies an only succeed if they fulfill the aspirations of their people. On this point Biden made clear in his State of the Union that he will generate what it takes from large corporations that paid no tax, to invest in America. Rather than fuel the profits of large oil companies India has increasingly chosen to use Russian discounted oil to invest in India. The Biden and Modi policies are identical generate savings and invest big time in trillions of dollars over the next few years to put democracies ahead in meeting rising aspirations that have been unfulfilled for far too long, which is where the real battles are being fought and will be won, and rightly so. US Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, Geoffrey Pyatt,  said during a visit to New Delhi on Feb. 16-17- "Our experts now assess that India right now is enjoying a discount of about USD 15 a barrel in the price that it is paying for its imports of Russian crude. So by acting in its own interest, by driving a hard bargain to get the lowest price possible, India is furthering the policy of our G7 coalition, our G7 plus partners in seeking to reduce Russian revenues."  Looking at the bigger picture the problem was created by Germany under Merkel who built Germany's over dependency on Russian oil to power a cheap fuel economy it thought was in Germany's interest. This is now being reversed by the hard work of Mr. Habeck of the Green party in the coalition government of Scholz in securing alternative supplies in record time for the EU to avoid a recession. In this sense the perception created early of India which has suffered itself from invasions in 1962 and incursions in the Himalayas more recently, it is not a problem India can solve by becoming energy short at a time when it has invested so much in fighting the pandemic. A similar problem was created by Republican and Democratic administrations of the past that concentrated the supply chain in one country. India lost much investment in the last 8 years as a result of the policies of Merkel's Germany and past Republican Democratic administrations in concentrating the supply chain in one country. ...

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DJT says about the loss of American manufacturing of key technologies-

"We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations."

A separate bucket is planned for this category customized to what is needed and appropriate, returning manufacturing to US and Allies India, working with Japan and South Korean allies, and at the same time providing a smooth transition away from China. Overconcentration in China is not going to work, has not worked, action is needed now.

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The Biden administration has announced a 100 day review of strategic vulnerabilities in America's supply chain. President Biden has said he supports funding of incentives for production in the US, to become independent of China and Taiwan. From 1990 onwards chip production in the US went from 37% to about 12% today. It will now go back up. Biden's National Security Adviser noted in an article in Foreign Policy that advancing industrial policy like Japan and France once considered out of tune is now essential, "something close to obvious."  At one point in the post war period America's most advanced jet engines were made in West Berlin, surrounded by the army of Russia and its ally the GDR. There is new realization that dependence on Taiwan which makes 22% of semiconductors worldwide and 50% of advanced designs cannot go on the way it is exposing a critical vulnerability for American industry. A 40% tax credit for the cost of new semiconductor fabrication plants and other incentives are now supported in the Biden administration. The whole idea is to turn this around quickly where US no longer depends on uncertain supplies from overseas. Four critical areas of strategic vulnerability will be reviewed- pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, batteries, and strategic materials. ...

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President Biden's style and years of effort leading to the presidency are similar to another Democrat - US president Harry Truman who took the US and the world through the last years of World War II, the Berlin Crisis and rebuilding war torn Europe through the Marshall Plan, and the Korean War. By doing so Truman built the security and economic structure that was the foundation of the Free World. Prsident Biden faces a similar opportunity says Mr. Zoellick in the WSJ. Mr. Biden is already engaged in a similar task as large as that facing Harry Truman as he sets a new direction for America. To build a new supply chain for the US and Europe, to advance the technological and scientific leadership of the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea and India, and to build a new security alliance in Asia and Europe, and strengthen Latin America. Mr. Truman was not deterred by the 1946 midterm elections with Republican majorities and used his experience as a Missouri Congressman to work with Republicans of like minded thinking to strengthen American leadership in the world. Mr. Biden is not deterred by Mr. Trump's challenge and shifts in voter sentiment as he set his focus on what matters most for America in the decades ahead from climate change to economic leadership. ...

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The US now leads a new 12 nation economic alliance meant to advance the 4 pillars of digital economy, supply chain renewal, defense, and transparency plus good governance. The alliance includes partners Japan, South Korea, with Australia, India and Indonesia and other ASEAN nations. On his first trip to Asia president Biden said at the launch announcement of the US led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity in Tokyo- "The future of the 21st Century economy is going to largely be written in the Indo-Pacific- in our region. We're writing the new rules." Behind this announcement one senses a lot of preparatory work has already been done in discussions with key partners in Japan and South Korea, as well as with India, Indonesia and other ASEAN nations. In terms of population the countries involved may exceed 2 billion people with the largest GDP in the world. With other links such as the US EU Trade and Technology Council the group encompasses most of the industrialized world. Combined with Latin America this would reach about 3 billion people. With Biden setting a new vision for the Free World after another US president Harry Truman did this in the years following the Second World War. ...

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Broughton, Williams and Maurer, WSJ, talk to companies that sell to the average American Skechers for shoes and Lee, Wrangler for jeans. Lee and Wrangler executives say price increases are an option, it all depends on the size of the DJT tariffs.  In general companies will take the following actions in sequence of priorities. Move as much of the manufacturing away from high tariff targeted China to other countries. Wrangler and Lee are not faced with this problem as only 2% of products are sourced from China. Most of the jeans are made in Bangladesh and Mexico. Wrangler Lee brands will increase savings from efficiencies in supply chain by $100 million. This could put a squeeze on margins of local makers in Bangladesh, but also come from other savings. For Skechers it makes 40% of products in china, 40% in Vietnam, and the rest in other countries. It will continue to shift away from China, into other countries. And price increases are a "high likelihood" say Skecher's executives. Most companies will try to reduce impact on margins, look for concessions from vendors, then weigh price increases. How will Apple with its high margins respond is a question. It will accelerate the shift of making mobile phones and laptops to its operations in India.  ...

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Kerala and Tamilnadu states with declining fertility, migration and ageing society are outliers in India with about half its population under the age of 25. About 600 million people in India are in the 18-35 age group- a clear case of rising aspirations society is happening in India at the very time that the US and European Union are looking at India for the future with shared values of representative democracy, open societies, and building a new supply chain in Asia. This BBC report looks at the state of Kerala where migration is leaving parts of the state only with elderly people. About 10% of the $100 billion in remittances each year from Indians overseas come to the state of Kerala. Life span is about 75 years in Kerala exceeding the national life span of 69 years. However this is looking at it backwards as India remains a vibrantly young country even with the advances in longevity where much of India is close to age 70 years in longevity and advances in medical care and health are taking place at a rapid pace. The problems of Kerala are an outlier for India. ...

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India is a major partner for Africa in the areas of energy and healthcare. India is a critical partner for Africa during the coronavirus pandemic in providing medical supplies and maintaining the critical supply chain. Indian oil and gas firms have invested $7 billion in Mozambique. India is Africa's third largest export market and India has $54 billion in investments in Africa. Foreign minister Jaishankar called India a reliable partner for Africa interested in developing the region. In fact Gandhi first started his nonviolent struggle in South Africa on behalf of miners in the region and fought for rights of African and Indian people in British South Africa. As a leading member of the British Commonwealth of nations India has a long history of ties with South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Nigeria, Ghana and other former parts of the British Empire. Indian workers and merchants played a large role in development in Africa after and during British rule. There are also older ties with Portuguese ruled Africa (Mozambique and Angola) with Portuguese settlements on the east coast of India. The Indian Ocean ties go back to the 15th century. ...

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"Made in China 2025" has caused consternation and alarm in Washington about China's effort to dominate key industries of the future with state subsidies. This report in WSJ shows the European response to China's effort. A survey by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China shows 58% of companies have not been able to participate in Made In China initiatives. There is concern that global supply chains are not being utilized in robotics, aerospace, and electric vehicles, three areas under China's program.  62% of companies say they didn't know whether this was leading to increased discrimination against foreign companies.

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When so much of infrastructure healthcare and education still needs more funding, and when St Paul's Cathderal lacks essential funds for basic maintenance and is in danger of closing, the Greensill scandal shows how much reallocation of funds to infrastructure, health, and education to help workers, students and families is needed. How much the existing culture distorts allocation of capital in ways that are vital to the future of families, students and workers, and lobbying acts in ways that are against the national interest. Here the WSJ says the lobbying of David Cameron, former UK prime minister extended to getting access to funds for Greensill, a  company that operated in  supply chain finance, lobbying for funds from the emergency financing facility provided by the Bank of England. Treasury rejected 56 messages sent by Cameron to top British politicians over several months to have rules changed. Greensill went into bankruptcy in March 2021, stranding investors who had put in $10 billion. A parliamentary committee is now looking into this case of Greensill. The company was founded by an Australian Lex Greensill, and does little more than provide companies a cash advance to stretch out the time to pay bills. One question no parliamentary committee will ask is why when the needs for infrastructure, health and education are so great $10 billion in funds, public or private even go into something like supply finance that does so little for the country. This is an example of the kind of distortion in the uses of capital that has become commonplace today, creating societies and countries with poorly  funded infrastructure and essential services in the advanced countries of Europe and the US. ...

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This commentary in the WSJ says it is essential that the U.S. get back manufacturing of all technological goods back to the U.S. or its allies. The dangers of depending on China or other countries not clearly allied with the U.S. is quite clear especially after the pandemic. The U.S. and European supply chains need to be completely remade, restructured, to avoid dependence on China or countries that are not allies. This is what supply chain renewal is about. Yet initiatives alone with hundreds of billions of dollars price tag re not the answer to the problem. What is needed are specific targeted actions such government direct assistance to key sectors to ensure U.S. technological advantages in worldwide competition. Giving a hole range of incentives and direct financial support to industries making everything from electronic and computer components to high tech parts that go to defense and civilian production.   The U.S educational component in this puzzle is university students in all high tech courses which should be kept for U.S. citizens or from key allied nations at American universities. The manufacturing base would mean securing incentives and aid to manufacturing industries, component by component, part by part, to secure American leadership and distinct advantage.  Job losses have to be reversed and industries relocated back to the U.S. And only in cases where it is advantageous to manufacture overseas to relocate in allied countries India, Japan or South Korea. U.S. labor has to be brought into the picture as a key participant in the national interest and given an important role. R& D efforts have to be developed component by component, technological part by part, and technology by technology, so that a systematic plan can be followed to secure American leadership for the rest of this century, is what experts including this one say is required today. ...

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There are 240 Norwegian and Finnish companies in India, says this report in The Hindu. Nordic countries are providing green technologies to India. At the Nordic-India Summit held in Copenhagen in May 2022, the five Nordic prime ministers and prime minister Modi agreed to intensify cooperation on digitalisation, renewable energy, maritime industries and the circular economy. Denmark is helping India with ports and logistics. Trade ministers of Norway and Finland visiting India together  Feb 9-10 describe the efforts to provide Nordic technology solution in green transition to India. Trade between Norway and India has doubled in the last 3 years and the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund is likely to become on the largest investors in India at $17.6 billion. Vestre us Norway's Minister of Trade and Industry, Skinnari is Finnish Minister of Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade. 

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The coronavirus is making implementation of the U.S. China trade deal less likely as Chinese imports from the U.S. decrease and China's exports continue to grow. China's exports to U.S. decreased by $60 billion but increased to other countries by $70 billion in 2019.

As a result the Trump administration is shifting its focus to another approach. The new multilateral approach is to combine the effort with allies Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and France. This would take the shape of a Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership to replace the old Obama period Trans Pacific Partnership which becomes defunct. The goal would be to build new supply chains with allies in Asia outside of China with the help of France and other countries that are wary of excessive dependence on China and have deep reservations of China's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

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Australian prime minister Scott Morrison says "global health trumps everything else," that " we need to have the information, and we need to have the transparency." Australia is seeking support from other countries in an effort to launch an investigation into missteps early in the crisis that have led to the epidemic spreading to millions of people around the world. China has rejected such an investigation. It has threatened retaliation with a consumer boycott of Australian beef and wine, and tariffs on barley. Australia tightened its laws on foreign interference and counterespionage in 2018. U.S. and European calls for an investigation into coronavirus origins is making Australia reconsider its trading relationship dependence on China. India has stepped up its vigilance of Chinese investment so that state backed entities do not acquire local companies affected by the pandemic. Japan has set aside $2.2 billion of its pandemic support package to help Japanese companies shift their supply chains out of China. ...

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The U.S. and India face difficult trade negotiations as India moves to build its Make in India campaign, building capabilities of Indian manufacturing companies for global supply chains. Mr. Trump will sign a $3 billion defense deal with India for supplying helicopters and other equipment to India. Indian policy on trade is to ensure local content and transfer of technology to build capabilities of local companies. The goodwill generated by the visit by Mr. Trump to India, and deals on defense could lead to agreement on other trade issues, as India and the U.S. balance other considerations such as the rise of China into the picture. This will take time and is likely to be done after the elections. Differences on tariffs will continue in the same way that differences with China led only to a partial deal, with contentious trade issues on technology left for the future.

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Anders Rasmusen, NATO Secretary General 2009-2014, says it is dangerous for Europe to remain a bystander in the Indo-Pacific. He says the Social Democrats and Greens in Germany, and the Nordic countries including Denmark do not support the policies of the outgoing administration of chancellor Merkel in relations with China. Rasmussen was prime minister of Denmark from 2001-2009. The current prime minister of Denmark, is the leader of the Social Democrats and won the election in 2019 to become prime minister. In the recent German election the Social Democrats were the largest party in parliament and expected to form a government with the Greens party. The situation in the world is changing rapidly in 2020-2021 the years of the coronavirus pandemic. Supply chains are being restructured. The Danish prime minister is on a 3 day visit to India. The Biden administration is committing to spending $3.5 trillion for the renewal of the American economy and for families and workers. America is committed to it role as a leader of the free world, protecting its technologies and strengthening its industries, building respect for workers and families. ...

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Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel says she will not support the moves by the EU commission to impose export bans on export of Astra Zeneca vaccines made in EU countries to Britain. A Dutch factory has 4 million doses of this vaccine ready for shipment.  Merkel says, "there are a huge range of international interdependencies when it comes to vaccine production. You have to be very careful when it comes to imposing export bans. You have to take a close look at supply chains."  Merkel's action comes as Britain makes an effort to talk to German and French leaders for a fair way to allocate supplies of vaccine. France and Germany see the need for the principles of "reciprocity" and "equivalence" to be covered in settling the differences on vaccine supplies. Equivalence refers to the sense that there should not be a big gap between EU and non EU countries in vaccine access. On March 24, Britain had vaccinated 45 of 100 people in the country, and EU had vaccinated only 13 people in a hundred. ...

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Vietnam has an excellent record in the coronavirus epidemic with zero deaths and 324 cases. No locally originated cases are seen. The country has an astounding 792 tests per confirmed case compared to 144 for Taiwan and 57 for South Korea. Vietnam acted quickly to close its borders, quarantine foreign travelers in camps, close schools, and imposed an early lockdown.  This gives Vietnam an opportunity to restart its economy and maintain its growth. With the reallocation of supply chains away from China underway, Vietnam sets an ambitious growth rate of 5% for 2020, down only slightly from 7% for 2019.  The coronavirus also had some positive effects including the digital transformation that is taking place-  the rate of online transactions in public services increased from 12% to 24% during the 2 month lockdown. The discipline showed in Vietnam for tackling the crisis contrasts with other countries in Europe and America. This report says some small businesses and export industries in clothing and shoes are affected, yet even a 3% growth rate in 2020 makes Vietnam a winner, as the future in 2021 looks good. ...

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Apple's acquisition of Renesas unit that designs power efficient smartphone display chips. This is part of an effort to increase control over its supply chain for critical parts to get longer battery life and sharper display images.

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Amitabh Kant reflects on his 6 years at Niti Ayog planning for development in India. He says energy transition is an important part of development for India. The integration of India as a major part of a new supply chain for the free world is a critical part of India's development. Kant talks about the aspirational districts program that covers transformation of the lives of 80% of India's people living in 112 districts. Moving India up by 79 positions on the World Bank Ease of Doing Business rankings is also one of the tasks he looks back at with a sense of achievement. Parmeswaran Iyer who headed the Swachh Bharat and Jal Jeevan Missions will now be new head of NIti Aayog, the organization that is driving India's development to 2030 and 2040. Niti Ayog stands for National Institute for Transforming India. Its pillars are- 1. Pro-people  2. Pro-Activity  3.Participation 4. Empowering 5. Inclusion of All 6. Equality 7. Transparency It has a maximum of 4 members. Suman Bery is vice chairperson appointed in March 2022. The members are appointed by the prime minister. It is different from the earlier Planning Commissions under Nehru in that it does the work of being a think tank yet the allocation of funds and decisions come under the prime minister and the finance ministry. ...