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Indonesia is a country with a long history of Hindu and Buddhist culture before conversion to Islam through traders from Malaysia and Sufi saints in the sixteenth and seventeenth century. Hanuman and other deities from India are also part of the existing culture and traditions. Communist influence has been alien to this culture and tradition as in India. It was part of the Dutch empire in the east and a source of European trade in spices from the seventeenth century. It is also a extensive island chain of Java, Sumatra and other islands with a population of 280 million very closely linked to India culturally and with links to America since independence. Indonesia was given a great deal of importance during the Cold War with Robert Kennedy and other leaders visiting Indonesia during the period after Sukarno in the sixties. By 2000 the US engagement with China had evolved to the point that neglected India, Indonesia and the entire south east Asian region in a preference for links with China.  The British division of India led to the US links with India and Indonesia being shaped by that division and the Cold War with Russia. The confusion of the struggle against colonial rule of the British and Dutch led to leaders such as Nehru and Sukarno who compounded the difficulties of the Cold War and perpetuated with it the old British idea of a divided South Asia on a religious basis that had supported British rule and set the conditions that made it possible for a small group of English civil servants to run the country. This led to the Indian and Indonesian relationship with the US being stifled as the US struggled to rid itself of the British obsession with a divided India. Culturally India and Indonesia are part of an extended region in Asia with development aspirations and a youthful population that aspires to better infrastructure, better education, healthcare and ease of living, and the better opportunities in life. This is what migration did for Europeans who left for America for a new life on the east coast and on the prairies of America. It has little to do with the obsessions of the British and the Dutch that divided the region between the Indus and the Ganges and divided the Indonesian islands. That phase is now coming to an end as China reverts to its Communist period leadership under a new generation led by Mr. Jinping, a son of one of the veterans of the Communist Revolution of 1949. The US has to evolve its relations with India, Indonesia, Vietnam and other countries into new ties of trade, culture and technological exchange. This is needed as it winds down its close trade relations with China in its supply chain to rebuild a new supply chain after the trade wars and the pandemic revealed the deep flaws of that supply chain. What is needed is not the efforts of one changing adminstration after another, but an effort started by president Biden that will last through different administrations as the US engages with Asia in the way that it engaged with Europe after FDR and Truman for most of the twentieth century. And one that rids itself of the obsessions of divided regions from the colonial period of the Dutch and the British. The1.6 billion people in India and Indonesia share a  common aspiration of being a major part of the Free World with America. ...

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Lee Kuan Yew, passes away at the age of 91. He led Singapore for 31 years after becoming prime minister in 1959. During this period he helped transform Singapore's economy into a centre for international trade and finance by attracting foreign investment. To do this he developed infrastructure, setup training colleges for the workforce, and provided tax breaks for investors, using Singapore's strategic location on the sea lanes in Asia to best advantage. Singapore became a export hub for Japanese electronics companies, and U.S. companies such as HP and General Electric established regional headquarters there. Strategic investments were made in high tech industries and Singapore's sovereign wealth fund took stakes in companies overseas. He retired in 2011 after opposition parties won 40% of the vote in general elections. His son is now the new prime minister.

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This WSJ editorial describes the contribution made by Lee Kuan Yew to economic freedom. Chinese premier Deng looked at Singapore as a model for China's capitalist development under the leadership of the Communist Party. In the last decade Singapore's people are looking for political freedom and an open political system, calling for changes in the existing system which favors Lee Kuan Yew's PAP Party. A similiar situation exists in Malaysia where the United Malay National Organization Party has run the government under Tunku Abdul Rehman, Tun Abdul Razak, and Mahathir Mohammed, for over 50 years since since independence from Britain in 1959. Through different methods the two parties have prevailed by keeping the opposition weak.

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Christoph Hasselbach of DW.com says the idea of European Union brings so much good for Europe that it should not be diminished by use of pressure or punishment. He refers to the firm opinion in Brussels, of Mr. Juncker and Merkel, that there can be no cherry picking when it comes to remaining in the EU. This led in Jan. 2017 to British prime minister May saying Britain would not go begging to Brussels, and would simply opt out of the European Union and the single market. Hasselbach offers an interesting and plausible explanation for the Brexit vote shifting by a small margin to the exit side. He says rightly that uncontrolled immigration fears were used by the politicians supporting exit. Interestingly he says the worries in the UK were not just for current people but for future citizens from the hundreds of thousands of refugees who would become German citizens in a few years. Would they try to settle in the UK- prime minister Cameron failed to provide a convincing answer, says Hasselbach. He is right to point out as we have at Lyrarc that it is healthy to have questions and even some skeptical views about Brussels, that the appeal of the EU must depend on not being dogmatic about it, but being open and willing to accept questions.   ...

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As the first day of talks happens in Brussels between Barnier of the EU and Davis of Britain, EU officials say Britain must meet spending pledges it made of 60 billion euros. Britain says there are different legal views on what is owed. Experts see little chance the two sides can reach an agreement by the deadline of March 2019. With the fragile coalition government in Britain talks appear to be very precarious with no clear view what Brexit means.

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Fomer U.S. Census Bureau officials Gordon Green and John Coder released a study by the firm Sentier Research. The study looks at two groups of Census data from 2005-2007 and 2008-2010, which has information on interviews with 3.5 million households for each period. The study shows 38 states with household income declining. The losses in income are greatest in the midwestern states affected by the loss of manufacturing industries. Incomes fell by 5.7% in the midwestern region of Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. Oil, shale and other energy producing states- Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas- saw incomes rise by 0.3% from 2007 to 2010. This report looks at pretax income levels in 2010 dollars for all 50 states and 297 metropolitan areas. Michael Greenstone, professor of environmental economics at MIT, says the regional shocks from the economic crisis can last for a couple of decades. The Midwestern states showed median annual household household income decrease by 4.7% to $49,710 and the Southern states showed a drop of 2.5% to $47,389. Nationally for the U.S. the drop in annual median household income from 2007 to 2010 was 3.5% to $51,287. Another finding of the study was that of the top ten metropolitan areas with the highest percentile of incomes, nine were in Connecticut, New York and New Jersey, a region where the financial industry is based. Silicon Valley in California comes in at No. 10 in this list of metropolitan areas. In terms of growth of households reflecting migration patterns and new families the Mountain States of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, and Nevada did as well as the oil patch states of Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma, showing an increase in households from 2007 to 2010 of 5.8%....

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The cultural identity of the Nation that has existed since the founders Washington and Jefferson, and since it's second beginning Lincoln and then TR and FDR,  was seen to be at risk in 2024, yet no party has put forward the need for Cultural Literacy as a Nation as part of national classroom education, a plea by E.D.Hirsch Jr. of University of Virginia, and others, from the 1980's onwards. Kash Patel is a public defender from New York, who worked in the NSC staff in the first Trump term. He is of Gujarati East Africa origin who studied at University of Richmond for history and Pace University for his JD. He actively defended DJT in what is known as the Nunes memo for the Mueller investigation into links with Russia. He also faced opposition after Defense Secretary Esper was replaced and he served as assistant to the new Defense Secretary, in appointment to the FBI, by then Attorney General William Barr. Kash Patel actively campaigned for DJT during the 2024 campaign. In addition to cost of living crisis for middle and working class families, unease about migration and the lack of Democrats sensitivity and urgency to serious issues raised by fentanyl flows and migrants crossing the border, the pressure on Border Patrol, were major issues in western, southern and midwestern states, leading to a Republicans gaining the White House, the Senate and the House in 2024.  The cultural identity of the Nation that has existed since the founders Washington and Jefferson, and since it's second beginning Lincoln and then TR and FDR,  was seen to be at risk, yet no party has put forward the need for Cultural Literacy as a Nation as part of national classroom education, a plea by E. D. Hirsch Jr. of University of Virginia, and others, from the 1980's onwards. Other issues were transgender and the dilution of morals and religion in the national life since the European settlement of the continent, the sense of losing identity as a Nation.  ...

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Already lead US negotiator and ambassador to Ukraine Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg has created a miscomprehension on the US and European side as to who will participate in negotiations. Lack of experience in tough negotiations to end a conflict is showing as it must be evident that Ukraine and the European Council, the EU, would expect to be part of any negotiations that settle questions about the security of Europe and what kind of Europe emerges from the negotiations. The European problem comes from the European lack of resolve to set aside or settle internal divisive issues such as migration, privatization, globalization winners and losers, rural vs urban, that have created economic and political divisions in Europe to concentrate with unity on issues that have common interest. Bad policy as in the US from business and government to overconcentrate manufacturing in China, in Germany to overconcentrate energy supplies from one provider, are sources of the conflict and have taken years to fix alongside the pandemic. European leaders scramble to define their position after statements by US Defense minister Hegseth and US's Ukraine ambassador Kellogg that suggested direct talks US with Russia would leave out the EU and Ukraine. Hegseth stepped back from some comments. Marco Rubio, US Foreign Minister, says Ukraine will be at the negotiating table in talks the US holds with Russia. Macron meets with Scholz, EU's Tusk, and NATO's Rutte this week.  Ambassador Kellogg and lead negotiator had said to European leaders about their being at the negotiating table-  “I think that’s not going to happen.” The EU Council head Costa after meetings with European leaders says Europe's position is-“In a nutshell: There will be no credible and successful negotiations, no lasting peace, without Ukraine and without the European Union.” Further he said-  “It must guarantee that Russia will no longer be a threat to Ukraine, to Europe, to its neighbors,” he said. ...

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This essay in WSJ is from Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida, and now Secretary of State in the second term DJT administration. Here Rubio points to his first visit as a return to focus on the American continent, on Central America and South America, which was neglected since the Kennedy administration in 1961 when JFK launched the Alliance for Progress (Allianza para Progreso). Like JFK Rubio visited Central American countries the source in the last decade in addition to Venezuela of much of the illegal migration north to the US. After support for failed dictatorships under the Eisenhower administration, JFK made Latin America a priority. This can be seen in the JFK Nixon debates. 64 Years after the conference in Uruguay's Punta del Este in 1961, America is back to square one with the failed Central American countries from gangs plus crime and from Venezuela's economy collapsing from inflation plus mismanagement with a socialist experiment. Kennedy said-"To our sister republics south of our border, we offer a special pledge – to convert our good words into good deeds – in a new alliance for progress – to assist free men and free governments in casting off the chains of poverty." -- John F. Kennedy, Inaugural Address, January 20, 1961 Kennedy said of the Alliance for Progress "a vast cooperative effort, unparalleled in magnitude and nobility of purpose to satisfy the basic needs of the [Latin] American people for homes, work and land, health and schools – techo, trabajo y tierra, salud y escuela." Speaking in the White House on March 13, 1961, JFK said to more than two hundred Latin American diplomats,  "Let me be the first to admit that we North Americans have not always grasped the significance of this common mission." Yet at the same time, "many in your own countries have not fully understood the urgency of the need to lift people from poverty and ignorance and despair." ...

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Hispanics are moving inland from California and other states bordering Mexico in search of new opportunities in midwestern states. There is a large increase in Hispanic population of states in the midwest- in Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois. Population of Hispanics has grown in the midwestern states of the U.S. by 49%, much higher than the 4% overall population growth between 2000 and 2010, according to the census. The population climbed sharply in Iowa, by 82% in the decade, making Hispanics 5% of the state population. Cities such as Ottumwa, southeast of Des Moines, have seen revival in the economy as Hispanics moved into the town and revived local businesses, creating new demand for retail stores like Wal-Mart and Menards. Hispanics often worked two shifts including work at the local Cargill meat packing plant. Small towns and cities across the midwest suffering from recession are being revived with the new influx of hardworking Hispanics.

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The government of Theresa May and the EU appear to be on a collision course with the release of the EU draft legal agreement that says Northern Ireland must remain in the customs union and future arbitration or appeal would be under the European Court of Justice.

Ireland favors the EU draft and sees it as a default solution to avoiding a hard border with Northern Ireland if it becomes necessary. Theresa May and the DUP party of Ireland on whom the prime minister depends for her coalition government's thin majority support in parliament, both reject the EU solution. 

The Labor Party says it would solve the Irish border issue by entering into a new customs union with the EU, so that no checks are needed at the border for people and goods. The Labor party sees it as vital to prevent any effort to undermine the Good Friday Agreement that forms the basis of the peace in Northern Ireland.

 

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Britain's High Court gives a ruling on November 2, 2016, that the government must consult parliament, and that parliament has to approve the plan for Brexit before invoking Article 50. This means that the government has to lay out the details of its plans which make it harder to conduct negotiations. The Conservative Party also does not have a majority in the House of Lords. Legal experts say the decision which caught the government by surprise was expected from a constitutional law standpoint which looks at whether the sovereign or parliament is supreme in making such a decision. Members of parliament in general were not in favor of leaving the European Union, making this add an element of uncertainty about Brexit. Political experts say one way out for Theresa May who earlier announced that she would invoke Article 50 by March 2017, is to call a general election. Today she has 329 seats in a 650 member parliament, with many of the MP's opposed to Brexit. May's government is expected to appeal the High Court decision to the Supreme Court. ...

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Lulu Garcia-Navarro interviews Homeland Security head Alejandro Mayorkas and asks him direct questions about the border with Mexico, published Feb 2, 2024 in NYT. Why the surge in migrants asks Navarro. Mayorkas is himself a Cuban born immigrant. Republicans in the House are impeaching Mayorkas. Navarro asks can you clearly say what has gotten us to this place and what went wrong? Clearly something had happened in Latin America. Central America drove migrants north after conflicts in Salvador, in Nicaragua and drought affecting Guatemala's agriculture for over 2 decades under different administrations. Mayorkas says in response to the question that the world is experiencing the largest level of human displacement that it has seen since World War II. He says the entire hemisphere is experiencing the enormous displacement in Venezuela as its economy collapsed. During the nineteenth century after president Monroe put forward the Monroe Doctrine that created a uniquely American sphere that asked European powers to stay away from the Americas north and south, any attempt by European powers was seen as an hostile act. It was American opposition to European colonialism. By the time of the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations this policy was not followed with the intervention of the Soviet Union in Cuba leading to a a wave of refugees from Cuba in the sixties. In the last decade the situation in Venezuela has worsened to the point that 8 million people have left Venezuela for neighboring nations, 2 million to Colombia alone, destabilizing the southern hemisphere. Venezuelans many from the educated middle class form the bulk of the surge in migrants across the US border with Mexico in 2022 and 2023. The problems were actually exacerbated under the Republican administration as the Venezuelan inflation spiralled after 2016 skyrocketing into hyper inflation by 2018 leading to the flow of immigrants outward that reached 8 million. This kind of hyperinflation the worst in the history of Latin America need not have happened with better managing of the crisis at that time. Mayorkas says the problem is that America's system of asylum is broken and both parties need to fix it. This is proposed by Tillis-Graham and Lankford all Republicans in the US Senate with president Biden's support. When he joined the Department of Homeland Security in 2009 Mayorkas says, US Border Patrol chief told him the real problem was that from the moment a migrant claims asylum at the border under US law and the adjudication of that claim it takes several years. This is the root of the problem the law can be fixed with the will of enlightened persons in both parties by simply passing a new law. Immigrants from Latin America are just as likely to vote Republican as Democratic and this may be particularly true for Venezuela's middle class that left the country as the economy collapsed with policies that led to inflation not seen in this hemisphere.  The other alternative is for the US and both parties to agree to what would be today's version of the Monroe doctrine- then opposing European colonialism, now opposing the breakup from within of Democratic countries in Latin America leading to waves of migration north of the border and causing upheavals all over the western hemisphere. Much less a policy of such resolution both parties have failed to fix basic policies of asylum and parole that today are being addressed by legislation being put together by Senator Lankford of Oklahoma, Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, Senator Tillis of North Carolina, three core states that are Republican since the Civil War, with the help of the White House and Senator Schumer. Yet in the House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson calls it dead on arrival simply refusing to break the status quo. ...

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The collapse of the Irish economy as house prices drop 50%, bank stocks drop 90% and unemployment rearches 10% in 2008. In Limerick unemployment is 14% and higher in some areas of the city. Mr Dunne, Ireland's best known developer, once paid in July 2005 the amount of 379 million euros for a 7 acre plot in the exclusive Ballsbridge neighborhood of Dublin. He planned a one billion euro development on that site. He is now insolvent.

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The 2010 census reveals significant changes in the population mix in the U.S. The number of Hispanic people increased significantly, especially so in the under 18 age group. The Hispanic population went up by 43%, increasing to 50.5 million in 2010, compared to 35.3 million in 2000. Overall Hispanics make up 16% of the U.S. population of 308.7 million. One of the striking facts in the change is that children under age of 18 make up one third of the Hispanic population compared to one fifth for the white population. Texas by itself added 979,000 people under age 18, with 931,000 being Hispanic. 92% of the population growth since 2000-of 25.1 million- came from minorities of all kinds. And mixed race is another major category with nine million people. Asian American population also increased, especially in major cities such as San Francisco, San Jose and New York. Overall 63.7% of people identified as white, 16.3% as Hispanic, 12.2% as black, 4.7% as Asian, 0.7% as American Indian or Alaska natives. New York and Washington saw black populations decline. Detroit dropped out of the top ten cities replaced by San Jose. Chicago's population declined, New York's went up by 2% to 8.2 million people. ...

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Economists at the IMF estimate that the public debt of the leading 10 industrialized countries would reach 114% of GDP by 2014, from 78% today. The governments then owe about $50,000 for each person in the country. Unlike World War II this situation is not temporary, because of the pension and health care costs of a population that is getting older. So what is to be done? Without the stimulus, the deep and prolonged recession would lead to greater damage to the finances of these countries. But continued in this manner the government would crowd out private investment and lead to lower economic growth. In some countries, Greece, Ireland, Italy Portugal and Spain it might lead to default, in other countries the real cost of the debt may be reduced through inflation. In the USA yields on 10 year Treasuries reached about 4% on June 10th, in December it was about 2%, a consequence of the economic recovery. If interest rates are allowed to rise too fast, it might abort the economic recovery. A rise in taxes is also not the answer, because in Europe the taxes are already at 40%, in America they are around 30%. But raising consumption taxes at the time when the economy was fragile, aborted a recovery in Japan during Japan's earlier crisis decade. A caution signal that says fiscal tightening can backfire, especially some years after a banking crisis when things are still in a weak condition. Some steps that can be taken are raising the retirement age, which would cut pension costs as people work longer and would boost tax revenues, and eliminating the tax deduction for home mortgage payments in the US. Its important to build credibility that the government and the legislative bodies are serious about controlling the finances and acting with prudence. In America wasteful health care spending is a priority, as this would reduce the burden on public finances considerably , and should be as much of a priority for the new Obama administration, as providing universal health care. With today's finances its not something that can be put off....

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This story is how hedge fund traders make money by buying credit default swaps for default protection on the debt of countries with huge debts. These countries are called by hedge fund traders as "the piigs" and money is to be made by buying these credit default swaps on countries when they are selling for less. As ripples appear such as the Dubai debt crisis and markets get nervous the protection prices rise making the credit defaults cost more. The countries where these traders expect problems are Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy. These investors take risks as these bearish positions were not reflected in economic conditions as confidence returned in 2009, but the longer term picture is fairly clear for these countries. Hedge funds doing this are Balestra Capital, Hayman Capital and North Asset Management, Pivot Capital Management.

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DJT deportation sweep in Chicago. DJT's model is Operation Wetback deportation of Eisenhower administration in 1954 after the Truman administration had appointed a commission in 1952 to investigate the issues from large scale illegal migration. Truman appointed the commission as he objected to racial quotas against Asians. The US Congress passed the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952, vetoed by Truman, the veto was overridden in the US Congress.  Operation Wetback of Eisenhower in 1954, conducted by Lt. Gen. Joseph Swing, and Attorney General Herbert Brownell, returned about 1.2 million migrants from Mexico who had crossed the US Border back to Mexico by ship or by road into the interior of Mexico. From 1942 for each year the immigration enforcement increased from 12000 in 1942 to 727,000 in 1952, the last year of the Truman administration. This is a pattern similar to what was seen in 2014-2024 under Obama-Trump-Biden. ...