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Hillary Clinton attacks Trump's policies in an address in Warren, Michigan, saying this was another version of failed trickle down economics. She called Trump's idea of taxing pass through entities such as small business reporting business income on individual tax returns at 15%, as a "Trump loophole." On trade policy Hillary Clinton said she would oppose the TPP or Trans- Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement that president Obama has supported. She put it flatly- " I oppose it now. I'll oppose it after the election, and I'll oppose it as president." And pointed out that too many companies have moved jobs overseas and "moved operations overseas and sold back into the U.S." after pushing for trade deals. The answer she said 'is not to rant and rave- or to cut us off from the world," in reference to protectionist policies Trump has supported. 

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The Romney campaign is trying to keep Obama's support among Hispanics and Latinos to 65-70%. Latino leaders say Romney's positions on immigration during the primaries, when he chose to go to the right of Governor Perry, have affected their perceptions and his more recent centrist positions are being discounted. Republicans are awakening to their weak position in the fastest growing demographic in the U.S. Positions on abortion, gay marraige and religion are affecting a portion of the Latino vote. One question is how enthusiastic is the voter turnout, especially because president Obama failed to take up immigration reform in his first term and gave it a lower priority.

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Efforts in 2014 by Jizhong Energy Company to reduce pollution in the city of Xingtai, population 7.6 million, by closing down the worst polluting plants and installing new equipment. The World Bank put the cost of pollution, including cancer and other health problems, at 9% of gross national income in 2009. The Ministry of Environmental Protection estimates 3.5% of GDP as the cost of pollution in 2010. Xingtai's pollution levels have been recorded by air quality monitors at as high as 30 times China's national standard. Government figures show the PM2.5 in the city's air is 150 micrograms per cubic meter over the last 12 months, more than 4 times the national standard. To get some idea what this means, consider that Fresno, California, with the highest pollution level in the U.S. had PM2.5 level of 18 micrograms per cubic meter. To show it is serious the central government requires the city to post pollution figures online, down to individual smokestacks and exhaust ports.

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The 2010 census reveals significant changes in the population mix in the U.S. The number of Hispanic people increased significantly, especially so in the under 18 age group. The Hispanic population went up by 43%, increasing to 50.5 million in 2010, compared to 35.3 million in 2000. Overall Hispanics make up 16% of the U.S. population of 308.7 million. One of the striking facts in the change is that children under age of 18 make up one third of the Hispanic population compared to one fifth for the white population. Texas by itself added 979,000 people under age 18, with 931,000 being Hispanic. 92% of the population growth since 2000-of 25.1 million- came from minorities of all kinds. And mixed race is another major category with nine million people. Asian American population also increased, especially in major cities such as San Francisco, San Jose and New York. Overall 63.7% of people identified as white, 16.3% as Hispanic, 12.2% as black, 4.7% as Asian, 0.7% as American Indian or Alaska natives. New York and Washington saw black populations decline. Detroit dropped out of the top ten cities replaced by San Jose. Chicago's population declined, New York's went up by 2% to 8.2 million people. ...

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According to a report from the Southern Education Foundation about 51% of the students from pre-Kindergarden to 12th grade in the U.S. were eligible for the federal program of free and reduced price lunches, using an analysis of 2013 federal data. With the highest proportion of students in poverty concentrated in states in the southern and western U.S.. States all across the south, including Texas, show high concentrations approaching 60-70%, and states in the west such as California show about 50-60%. Midwestern states such as Illinois and Michigan show rates over 50%. The implications of this data are that these children from poor and sometimes chaotic backgrounds trail other children in educational development, are less likely to have educationally enriching activity, and more susceptible to dropping out or never attending college. Kent McGuire, president of the Southern Education Foundation says the map showing this is striking. He points to the disinclination to invest in young people today, compared to the focus on leadership in areas of creating opportunity and upward mobility in the decades of the 50's through the 80's. Michael Rebell of Teachers College at Columbia University, says reaching this point where a majority of public school children are from poor backgrounds has happened sooner, and the trend has accelerated over time. ...

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Scott Shane and Jo Becker provide this exceptional account of the events that led to the unraveling of Libya. Saying they were not going to do another Iraq, senior policymakers and president Obama failed to realize the importance of basic steps that needed to be taken to secure the large arms arsenal of the Gaddafi regime, providing the assistance and support for transition to peacetime of the many militias in the country, and arrangements with Arab allies of the U.S. such as Qatar and UAE and other Arab neighbors allied with the U.S. to secure the arms arsenal and secure borders. It was clear from the beginning that Gaddafi had discouraged the development of institutions that would hold the country together- handholding was essential for the Libyan project to succeed. Instead as Shane and Becker document here Libya received neglect with strong conditions set for U.S. assistance such that neglect was assured. It is not clear from this report that Secretary Clinton supported the policy because this is what she would have done, or because of a sense of being a team player in the Obama administration, though it leans on the latter. Observing her role in supporting a Libya free of the dictatorship supports the idea that Hillary Clinton would have seen the need to help build institutions where none existed, and the basic step of transition of militias to peacetime. The weakness of the Libyan government is cited here, which only reinforce the need for the U.S. to be involved in a transition to peacetime Libya, after enabling the Libyan people to remove the Gaddafi regime. The militias allied with Qatar and UAE on opposing sides helped worsen the situation, with the U.S. having sufficient influence with western allied governments to ensure a unified internationally supported policy for transition with basic security....

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Robert Shiller of Yale University, calls for revenue sharing by the federal government with local governments. This should go beyond the $26 billion approved this month for aid to local governments, designed to assist with Medicaid and hiring teachers. It is difficult to create jobs quickly and disperse and use money wisely, without the help of local governments, military or nonprofit organizations- as these organizations have the necessary infrastructure that can be used to get things done quickly. He cites the Civilian Conservation Corps created by FDR, using the Army as the organizational framework.

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Dexia, the Belgian-French bank, reported a net loss of 11.64 billion euros for 2011, including 4.05 billion euros from selling Dexia Bank Belgium to the Belgian government in Oct 2011, and a 3.36 billion euro loss on Greek government bond holdings as a result of restructuring of Greece's debt. Other losses were 2.6 billion euros from an acceleration of the sale of a portfolio of U.S. mortgage backed securities, and about 1 billion euros from the sale of the Paris based public finance business to savings banks operated by the French government. Dexia ends up with a negative total equity of 320 million euros at the end of 2011. Dexia was one of the hardest hit European banks in the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

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Without the patience and skills of S. Jaishankar peace at the Indian border with China could not have been restored in 2022. Here he describes the challenge of border incursions when he still called on his counterpart Wang Yi and maintained friendly communications, asking Yi not to let China complicate matters so that solutions could be found and things did not deteriorate further. At the time of tense Ukraine dispute in Europe, Jaishankar who was earlier the Indian ambassador to China, navigated this period of tension with China using his knowledge of China and how best to continue the diplomatic communications.  Less well known is the work put in by Jaishakar to bring citizen to citizen contact between Indians and Chinese by setting up such intercultural and educational programs in several Chinese cities as Ambassador to India. Jaishankar had the foresight to know that this would be important for the future. Yet these contacts are only a small fraction of the potential contacts between India and China on a citizen to citizen direct basis that are needed. Never is that more true than today with the wars in Europe, and the need for peaceful development in Asia. China is still a middle income country and India modernizing to become a middle income country. Both Europe and the US are far ahead in development than China and India. Jaishankar was appointed the Foreign Secretary of India in 2015 and in 2019 Foreign Minister of India in the Modi administration. He was the longest serving Ambassador to China for about 5 years in 2009-2013. He is unique because of his having been a senior diplomat to China, Japan, Singapore and the US, and speaks Japanese and Chinese. ...

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Jay Powell, a former US Treasury official, now a scholar at the Bipartisan Policy Center, says the fears of budget problems in US states are survivable, even though they will be difficult and painful. He does not see widespread defaults, the way Meredith Whitney has predicted. Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, says a major default would cause serious macro-economic dislocations. It would have impact beyond the US, in the European economies with serious budget problems such as Greece, Portugal and Spain. Analysts cite the following reasons why a widespread debt default by states and local governments is unlikely. Municipal bonds are held mostly by individuals, who own about two thirds of US municipal bonds, directly or through mutual funds. Most state and local government debt is long term, and does not rely on short term borrowing the way a Lehman Brothers did in the recent financial crisis. The states can raise revenues, as Illinois did recently. With the economy improving state tax revenues were up 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2010, compared to a year earlier, according to preliminary data from the Nelson Rockefeller Institute of Government, Albany, New York. That said, the following reasons show that life will be difficult and painful for states and local governments. State budget gaps total at least $125 billion, as they look to the coming fiscal year, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. And no federal help is in the works, as it was in 2009. Far less of newly issued muni-bonds are insured today - 6% compared to 57% in 2005- according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Insurers are still recovering from losses in the recent financial crisis. A massive supply of new bonds has depressed the market just as Dec 31 expiration of a federal program, Build America Bonds, which provided help to states that were borrowing. Investors withdrew $23.6 billion from muni-bonds mutual funds since November, 2010. Moody's Investor's service has listed the states that will need to issue bonds to fund current operations. California will borrow billions to cover cash flow needs, and Illinois is considering an $8.75 billion 'debt restructuring bond' to pay past due bills, and a $3.75 billon bond for contributions to its pension system. Because banks have only 1.3% of assets in muni-bonds any defaults will not affect their ability to lend. But the impact will be felt in the US economy and overseas. In the event there was a default, some analysts believe the federal government would find it hard to say no when the federal government said yes to AIG....

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Even though U.S. president Trump has singled out countries such as Mexico, South Korea and China for trade practices, the U.S. today faces stronger competition in trade from Germany. The trade surplus with Germany for 2016 was $297 billion for Germany compared to $245 billion for China, according to Ifo economic institute. China's trade surplus according to the World Bank was down from 10% of gross domestic product or GDP in 2007 to 3% in 2016, while Germany's has gone up to 8.5%. The Chinese currency is seen as not being undervalued by some experts, while the euro has lost a quarter of its value in the last 3 years, giving Geman exporters an edge. The U.S. also competes with Germany in nine of the 10 export categories such as machinery and electronic equipment, according to the Peterson Institute. Then why is the focus under U.S. president Trump not including Germany? One reason is that China's products have put a downward pressure on U.S. manufacturing wages, and the the speed with the Chinese manufacturing has grown in certain industries. Germany has very few of the manufacturing subsidies that China provides to its industries. And the depreciation in the euro is not favored by the German government as it opposes the policies of the European Central Bank. Germany also has a higher propensity to save about 10% of GDP compared to about 3% for the U.S., according to OECD. As a result Germany is accumulating foreign assets at a faster rate than any other nation, while the U.S. is borrowing capital from overseas. Ways to change this are minimum wage regulations introduced by the government, but larger measures such as increasing government investment in the economy are not supported as the country prepares for the future with an aging population.   ...

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Protests planned in smaller towns in eastern Germany are the largest since the fall of the Berlin Wall, says this report in DW.com. Protests are against far right AfD and plans to deport immigrants from Germany. About 300,000 people turned out near the chancellery and the Bundestag parliament buildings in Berlin on Saturday Feb. 3, 2024. About 30,000 turned out in Dresden in East Germany. About 1800 organizations have called for protests in Berlin. Luisa Neubauer of the Fridays for Future Climate protests told the crowd according to DW.com- that hope does not fall from the sky, hope is damn hard work and that Germans must live democracy not just passively have democracy. This is showing Berliners and Germans in many cities and small towns in a different light, where the people themselves are taking charge. When political parties from the CDU and SPD, Greens and the Left have let the political landscape fragment with no party having more than 20% support. The future of Germany and the EU depends on these young people out on the streets. ...

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Simo Romero describes the serious self-reflection among Brazilians, as protests against the games and a climate of indifference replaces the euphoria in 2009 of getting to host the Summer Olympics in 2016. About 63 percent of Brazilians believe hosting the Olympics will hurt the country, 51 percent say they are not interested and only 16 percent are enthusiastic about the games, according to polling company Datafolha. The problems Brazil faces now stem from corruption scandals at Petrobras, impeachment proceedings against president Rousseff, and appointment of an interim president Temer, both extremely unpopular. Rio de Janeiro state's finances are in severe condition, and Brazil appears to have wasted the boom years by running up too much debt and not investing in public infrastructure, education, healthcare, and public services. As a result during the Olympics the sailing competition in Guanabara Bay near Rio is faced with the unpleasant problem of raw sewage that has not been cleaned up. Security needs in the Olympics area has led to reduced security in the northeast where prison run gangs operate in some areas against public property. Former president Lula da Silva who was once popular as Brazil experienced the commodities boom is now under investigation related to the corruption at Petrobras.  ...

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U.S. States faced a shortfall of $86 billion during the 2011 budget season, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. This was after a rise in tax collections during the last year from an improving economy, and about $30 billion of tax increases passed in 2009 and 2010. States faced the end of $66 billion in federal stimulus aid, and their share of Medicaid costs are expected to go up by $16 billion in this fiscal year, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers. The political mood has shifted with worries about the deficit and fears that tax increases could make the states less attractive for employers. As a result there is a focus on spending cuts with very few tax increases. Forty six states began a new fiscal year this week after legislatures focussed on spending cuts, mostly avoided tax increases, and some states placed restrictions on the pay and benefits of public employees.

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The rapidly changing demographics as the U.S. becomes more of a multicultural society. For the first time minority babies formed a majority in 2011 with 50.4% of new babies, according to the Census Bureau. The median age of the non-Hispanic White population is 42 compared to 28 for Hispanics. Hispanics are right at the child bearing age. This also raises the issue of how the U.S. will educate the minority population. Today 13% of Hispanics have college degrees, 18% of Blacks and 31% of Whites. High school graduation rates in places like New York City for Hispanics are lagging far behind other groups. The economic downturn after the 2008 financial crisis has worsened the educational prospects for Hispanics and other minorities. The education of minority children is essential to improve the competitiveness of the U.S. in a global economy, as the educational levels in emerging markets accelerates with more opportunities.

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This NYT editorial on Nov. 23, 2012, points out the importance of a forward looking Britain that has a needed voice in the affairs of the European Union, and positive engagement with the nations in the eurozone that make up its largest trading partner. Roger Carr, head of the British Confederation of Industry, made just such a call saying British engagement with the rest of Europe was "the linchpin of our wider global trade ambitions." The danger now is that because of missteps in the managing of affairs in the EU, including the hasty setup of the euro currency without proper safeguards for debt of individual countries and the strict fiscal arrangements imposed by Germany that stifle the chance of growth, the mood in Britain is now shifting towards exit from the EU. An Opinion/Observer poll suggests a referendum held today is likely to win an yes vote for Britain to leave the EU, a huge mistake for British interests. A referendum is expected to be scheduled for 2015.

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Macron received 27% of the vote to 24% for Le Pen and 21.7% for Melenchon. Pecresse of the Republicans 4.7% and Zemmour on the far right at 7%.  If no candidate wins 50% of the vote there is a runoff on April 24  of the voters who voted for other smaller parties and how voters for former socialist candidate Melenchon respond in the runoff. French departments in the Caribbean, Atlantic and Pacific can vote. There are also 1.4 million overseas voters. Which all adds to an interesting mix that these Guardian color coded graphics provide an insight into to show voter sentiment in 2022. Le Pen continues to draw support from the northeast, southeast around Marseille, and rural regions in east and south with Zemmour drawing away some far right voters in the Marseille region. Some of these areas suffered as manufacturing shifted to China, as in the industrial midwest of the US. Some of this is also communities involved in the Yellow Vest protests about cost of living for working class voters. Macron draws support from the western and south west regions around the cities of Toulouse, Bordeaux, Lyon, and affluent areas of Paris that have gained during the Tech and advanced industrial revolution. This also includes rural areas. Melenchon as former socialist candidate draws support from less affluent suburbs of Paris and all parts of the country looking for a shift from power concentrated in the presidency. About 13.2% of the vote is for smaller parties,  showing the kind of fragmentation that happened also in Germany as the main parties the Socialists and the Republicans lost significant numbers of voters. Valerie Pecresse of Sarkozy's Republicans received only 4.7%, showing severe losses for the main parties. ...