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A Dreamers deal between president Trump and Democrats looks less likely now after meetings between the two parties show Democrats and Republicans have little they agree on. A meeting on January 11, 2018 was convened to discuss a proposal from Senator Durbin, Senator Graham and four other senators that would allow children who arrived in the U.S. with their parents (the Dreamers in the DACA Act of president Obama) to stay in the country with a path to citizenship, give $1.6 billion for a wall or fence on the U.S. southern border with Mexico, and change the diversity visa lottery to move to a merit base system.  President Trump's remarks at the meeting disputed by the president and confirmed by some senators have created added animosity. Trump is reported to have made some remarks derogatory to immigrants from Haiti, while saying why not get more immigrants from Norway, as Trump prefers a merit based system. The remarks have alienated African countries and were refuted in Norway. This also complicates the situation for the U.S. image overseas as diplomats struggled to represent the U.S. in a different light. In Congress the presidents remarks make it more likely that Democrats and some Republicans will make it harder to pass spending bills including on defense. As a result short term spending approval action will be taken, and there will be a prospect of government shutdown. ...

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Criticism of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the WSJ for some overreaching actions. Yet also the failure of politicians including previous presidents Bush and Obama, that lead to a situation where huge burdens are placed on law enforcement lacking resources and numbers for missions that have placed on their shoulders the accumulated problems of decades. DJT says president Biden was not one to support the scale of illegal migration in 2020-2024 and open borders that happened, and seemed both unaware of the real situation and losing control of the situation. DJT's repeated reference to Biden using the robo-pen also refers to delegation to Biden's Homeland Security head Alejandro Mayorkas, who immigrated from Cuba in 1960 as a child and grew up in Los Angeles, and both Biden and Mayorkas failing to take strong action as the gravity of the situation became apparent in 2022-2023. The record 2.2 million encounters at the Mexican border in fiscal 2022 were the highest in history under Mayorkas, the first Latin American to head US Immigration Service and Deputy head of Homeland Security appointed by Obama. ...

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Democratic states face a sobering reality- can California, Minnesota, Illinois afford it? It turns out that they cannot and are diverting important funds away from the Nation's priorities in transportation, housing, education, rural healthcare. Here is what happened-- When California Gov. Newsom used state's Medicaid budget for poor citizens and disabled for illegal migrants to give free coverage, Medi-Cal went $6.2 billion over budget in 2025. In Illinois the program for Medicaid coverge to illegal migrants estimated at $112 million annually now costs $800 million and parts of it are now suspended. California had not thought this thing through, with free medical coverage not available to even citizens of the US, why would unrestricted borders not overwhelm a border state's Medicaid system signed into law by a Texan president Lyndon Johnson for the people of this Nation. Democratic States are running into a logical fallacy that the European Union and Germany are already experiencing, stretching straining public services, which has nothing to do with one's sentiments. Gov. Newsom now wants to give this benefit for $100 monthly premiums in 2027. ...

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U.S. president Trump's executive order reversing parts of the Clean Power Plan of president Obama may extend the life of older coal powered plants, but overall it is unlikely to change the shift away from coal for the U.S. utility industry. It will do little to reverse the market forces that are leading to a shift to natural gas for the utility industry with the increasing availability of natural gas. In this WSJ report Cassandra Sweet cites Duke Energy Corp. CEO Lynn Good, who says natural gas for Duke will be the leading fuel followed by coal by 2026, and natural gas now makes up 28% of its mix with coal at 34%. He says a $11 billion ten year investment in natural gas and renewable energy will go through regardless of what the Trump administration does because of the economics- the declining price of renewables, the competitive price of natural gas. Companies are loath to base their long term plans on changes in administration as they see the economics dictated by advances in technology, and the general sense that cleaner energy is here to stay for the long run. Already in the U.S. 34% of total power supplies are from natural gas and 30% from coal for 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Department. This may change slightly as coal is used where it is economical and makes sense without the carbon rules, yet the long term trend is clearly towards natural gas. ...

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It is too early to say it is a playbook. Trudeau's action may be more effective in the long run. The issue of fentanyl from Mexico is different in 2025 from the first term of DJT in 2016, 8 years later with 490,000 deaths from fentanyl in the US, a part of America's younger generation- unprecedented in American history and since the settling of the American continent since 1600. Fentanyl smuggling into the US from Mexico is the biggest issue facing the US along with closing the US Border. This report in the WSJ says Sheinbaum tried to deflect 25% tariffs by making the offer of sending 10,000 troops to the US Border. This was similar to her predecessor saying he would send 28,000 troops to the Guatemala Mexico border to stop migrants. DJT raised the issue. The week before the Feburary 3, 2025 call between Sheinbaum and DJT the White House said Mexican drug-trafficking organizations “have an intolerable alliance with the government of Mexico.” These are aspects of the problem that the White House needs addressed in effective ways to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US. Action from the first term of DJT has not solved the problem so that DJT will have to find real effective solutions. The Canadian government followed its own approach. It set $140 million for a new unit to gather intelligence on organized crime. And appointed a head for an organization on stopping fentanyl from entering the US. Canadian PM Trudeau followed the US and DJT in labelling the Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations. Issues the US faces with Mexico that remain unresolved are the $150 billion deficit and bringing home US manufacturing in the auto industry back to the US.   ...

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The failures of the two Bush presidents and Obama that are still with us in 2025 in the Middle East, in dragging out foreign wars, at the Border, and in letting outsourcing get out of hand with China, as the US struggles to rebuild the Nation and its communities, and a peaceful world.

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This analysis by Julian Borger of the Guardian newspaper cites experts including former Defense Secretary Perry, on the problems with the Trump escalation of rhetoric with North Korea. The U.S. president promised "fire and fury" in a tweet he made, after the increased sanctions passed in the United Nations had already raised the pressure on the North. Perry says the president has no plans to back up what he says, which hurts U.S. credibility posture. The North Koreans responded by saying they are looking at an attack on the U.S. Guam air and naval base in the Pacific. Other experts warn of the danger of stumbling into something unprepared, and increasing the unpredictability with and adversary who is unpredictable to begin with. Wolfsthal, an expert from the earlier administration under president Obama, says the risk of escalation becomes very high because a miscalculation could take place. Rex Tillerson, the U.S. Secretary of State, tried to tamp down the stressful situation by saying that no action is planned. The U.S. insists it is open to negotiating, but the condition is North Korea putting the ending of its nuclear weapons and missile program on the table. The North Koreans have conveyed their opennesss to negotiate at a meeting in Manila, objecting to the U.S. "hostile" policy as an obstacle.    ...

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The increase in economic sanctions in response to missile testing is seen by North Korea as "a violent violation of our sovereignty." The sanctions would cut the export revenues of North Korea by one third, further damaging a fragile economy. The North Korean communist government sees a nuclear capability as the only way to maintain its survival. The rhetoric between the U.S. and South Korea with the North Korean government takes place during military exercizes by the U.S. and South Korea. The tweets by president Trump and the missile tests of the North Korean government have escalated the situation to where everything about this is in uncharted territory in 2017. China backs the sanctions as it has increasingly lost control of the North Korean government's actions, even though it sees the North as a buffer zone in relation to the U.S. alliance with South Korea. South Korea's major city Seoul is only 50 miles from the border, making South Koreans play down any confrontation with the North.  ...

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Stephen Bosworth was appointed by Hillary Clinton as U.S. Representative for North Korea Policy. He is one of America's best diplomats who served in several postings overseas before becoming Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts. Prof. Drezner points to the work done by Bosworth in keeping dialogue with North Korea alive, till a solution can be found. He also cites Chinese analysts who say pressuring China comes from a worn playbook, that China would not agree to reunification on the Korean peninsula, to bring U.S. influence right up to its borders. South Koreans have been wary of reunification because of the decade long experience of integrating East Germany. As a result new solutions need to be found and the valuable work of diplomats like Bosworth is badly needed to keep dialogue alive for a solution to be found.

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The situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating. It's worsening compared to Iraq. More deaths in roadside bombings than Iraq in recent months, and rural areas in the south and east no longer in the control of the Karzai government. And opium crops not under any control and growing substantially in 2007. The US Defense department is conducting a thorough review of the situation in Afghanistan. The ceasefire between militants in Pakistan's border areas and the Pakistan army also has led to increased activity along the Pakistan border as Pakistan militants cross the border into Afghanistan, and the Pakistan tribal border areas acting as sanctuary for the Taliban militants. Meanwhile Obama and McCain see the situation differently. McCain sees Iraq as important and Obama would withdraw from Iraq and concentrate on Afghanistan and send 8000 more troops to Afghanistan, something that may happen if he is elected and the situation in Afghanistan deteriorates further.

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Defense experts in Britain say the part of the Russian army that is modern is not large, and the part that is large is not modern. The Russian advance attack in Ukraine has floundered, says this report in the WSJ. About 25% of the Russian army is made up of conscripts. The hundreds of billions of dollars spent on modernization of the Russian armed forces have been spread thinly, and dissipated also because of corruption and poor management.  The Russian encrypted communications did not work as expected leading to relying on open communications that could be intercepted or jammed. The Russian government and president Putin were still stuck on 2014 and did not realize the determined resistance and the desire for independence of the Ukrainian people. Ukraine is a technologically advanced European country the size of Germany with a population of 40 million, and Russia has an economy the size of Italy, factors that also played a part. The corruption and poor economic conditions in the border Ukrainian republics setup by Russia led many Ukrainians in the eastern border region to question any advantages from Russian rule. The user of poorly motivated conscript soldiers led to many generals and other officers to have to be present on the front lines leading to Russian officer level casualties. The use of antitank weapons supplied quickly from the European Union and the US, and use of small mobile units of Ukrainian volunteer and army forces to tactically destroy the front and rear of miles long convoys of tanks and armored vehicles - leaving the rest of the convoys trapped in between. Logistics also failed to resupply deep inside Ukraine as Russian forces depend on rail based resupply which could not happen without control of cities on the rail lines. The volunteer forces in Ukraine after 8 years of war since 2014 and the immediate assistance with antitank and other military assistance from US, and EU, played a part in the western response to the Ukraine crisis and president Putin's actions.   ...

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The FDA approves Governor De Santis proposal for importing drugs from Canada. Colorado is one of the other states that have applied. The drugmakers continue their opposition even if this means lower prices for the American people of excessively higher priced American drugs compared to other countries. Both Republicans and Democrats agree prices have to come down and support importing of drugs into the US, then why is it taking so long for the FDA  to approve state proposals? The Biden administration has issued an executive order for the FDA to work with states on this.

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Many of the young people joining terrorist groups come from Tunisia. A security expert tells DW.com that the radicalization of youth in Tunisia began with the overthrow of Ben Ali and his government in Tunisia at the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011. Ben Ali's regime detained many of the people in opposition groups, leading to the release from prisons during the revolution. The radicalization of Tunisia's youth began during this period, according to this report. The Benghazi attacks on American embassy from Libyans opposing Gaddafi who had crossed the border into Mali, also followed a similar pattern after the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya. In Libya many radicalized people in opposition groups were released from detention following Gaddafi's overthrow. The current democratically elected government of Tunisian president Beji Essebsi is monitoring the situation. This report describes the experience of some Tunisians in terrorist groups who were brought back home from other countries by their families. EU countries and the U.S. supported the Arab Spring but the aftermath was not well managed leading to further upheaval, and now terrorism. Some of this happened as the governments changed in the U.S. with Obama replacing Bush in the U.S. and Hollande replacing Sarkozy in France, and showing little interest in managing the aftermath or helping the new governments in Libya, Tunisia and other countries make a smooth transition with aid, security assistance, and maintaining the basic services provided by government. A well formulated and conducted effort from the West could have prevented the worst effects that are seen in 2014-2016. The costs to contain the crisis that has ensued are far greater than what would have been needed in material resources and expert assistance from the developed countries of Europe and the U.S.- without military involvement as there was a general sense of being lifted from years of dictatorship in Arab North Africa, and general sense of goodwill towards the West during the Arab Spring.   ...

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Speaking at Ulster University president Biden says peace and opportunity go together.  "It is upto us to keep this going, to keep building on the work that has been done every day for the last 25 years. To sustain the peace unleash this incredible economic opportunity, which is just the beginning." The US is stepping in with action. Joseph Kennedy III, the Special envoy to Northern Ireland will lead a trade delegation of US companies to Northern Ireland later this year. Biden also called for the effective devolved government to be restored to bring greater opportunity to this region. It is important to remember as this WSJ report amply shows that president Biden has been an unrelenting champion on the Good Friday Agreement. That it is there today and the Irish border remains in the Irish Sea after Brexit owes much to the personal effort of Mr. Biden from before his election as president to this day and this visit. It is also a measure of the kind of man and the kind of president Mr. Biden is. Keeping his personal ties to Ireland.  ...

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Anti Immigration sentiment is not new - it has just changed racial stereotypes from arguing against southern and eastern Europeans and barring Asians for "quality" in 1890-1970 to today's heated debates about Latin American nationalities.  Pew Research ( and the adjoining MPI) show highly relevant US Immigration history. Pew Research shows the foreign born share of the American population is at 13.8 percent. It reached 14.8% percent by 1890,  brought down in the interwar period by 1970 to 5 percent. It has gone back up- the wave of immigration blocked from successive Acts keeping out Chinese (1882), Japanese (1924) and all Asians(1924) has changed to include Asian migration under policies of John F. Kennedy. Pew Research shows in 2022  10.6 million immigrants living in the US were born in Mexico, making up 23% of all immigrants. This is 3.2% of the US population of 335 million in 2024 according to the Census Bureau. The promise of president Harris to sign the legislation negotiated with Republicans in Congress (Senator Lankford) in March to close the Border would remove this distraction from cost of living, housing, and climate challenges. ...

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Jacobs takes us back to a time in history when Winston Churchill, as colonial secretary for the British Empire, created countries and geographic borders simply by drawing this on a map. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire during the first world war provided the opportunity to create the borders and states that we know today- Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. This part of history is important to understand what we see today in the Middle East- as it was the first step in the evolution of British, French, and later American policy in the region. Britain's oil interests in Iran determined policies pursued first by Britain, and later by the U.S. in the region, and which reverberate to this day in how Iranians see the world.

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From the beginning coordinated effort had little prospect between the U.S., the EU, and Russia to address Islamic State and terrorism with Russia's continuing its policies in Syria. This is less likely now with the shooting down of a Russian war plane over Turkey, continued tensions with bombing of Turkic populations on the border, and Russia's bombing campaign in Syria hitting targets all over the region.

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Scott Shane and Jo Becker provide this exceptional account of the events that led to the unraveling of Libya. Saying they were not going to do another Iraq, senior policymakers and president Obama failed to realize the importance of basic steps that needed to be taken to secure the large arms arsenal of the Gaddafi regime, providing the assistance and support for transition to peacetime of the many militias in the country, and arrangements with Arab allies of the U.S. such as Qatar and UAE and other Arab neighbors allied with the U.S. to secure the arms arsenal and secure borders. It was clear from the beginning that Gaddafi had discouraged the development of institutions that would hold the country together- handholding was essential for the Libyan project to succeed. Instead as Shane and Becker document here Libya received neglect with strong conditions set for U.S. assistance such that neglect was assured. It is not clear from this report that Secretary Clinton supported the policy because this is what she would have done, or because of a sense of being a team player in the Obama administration, though it leans on the latter. Observing her role in supporting a Libya free of the dictatorship supports the idea that Hillary Clinton would have seen the need to help build institutions where none existed, and the basic step of transition of militias to peacetime. The weakness of the Libyan government is cited here, which only reinforce the need for the U.S. to be involved in a transition to peacetime Libya, after enabling the Libyan people to remove the Gaddafi regime. The militias allied with Qatar and UAE on opposing sides helped worsen the situation, with the U.S. having sufficient influence with western allied governments to ensure a unified internationally supported policy for transition with basic security....

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President Biden made the decision to allow about half a million Venezuelan migrants who cannot be deported because US has no diplomatic relations with that country, to work legally. In New York half of the 100,000 migrants who arrived there in 2023 are putting too much pressure on the social safety net, a crisis for the school's shelter system, schools and budget. New York Democrats lobbied heavily for a change in the system. Mr.Biden made the decision to allow the Venezuelan migrants to be able to work legally. NY Mayor Adams and NY Governor Kathy Hochul lobbied heavily. The city had to house 60,000 migrants and it imposed a strain on the system. It was estimated to cost $12 billion for the city over a number of years. In the long run it will help New York State and the US with shortages of workers, yet in the short run the Republicans and immigration skeptics are protesting the arrival of migrants. Migrants arriving here after August will not be covered to not increase migration over the Mexican border.  ...

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Foreign policy of DJT Administration in 2025- asserting US interests, reviving the Monroe Doctrine for US policy in the western hemisphere, and rapprochement with Russia, China, Japan, EU, in international trade after tariffs against unfair trade. Mead says this has improved the US standing in world affairs and also has helped other nations in the world achieve their interests in their region. EU takes on a larger role in Ukraine freeing the US to assert itself in a much needed way to protect its borders and remove threat of drug and fentanyl trafficking from Venezuela and Mexico. Russia accepted as a Northern European power and NATO is pulled back as it should have been after the Soviet Union collapsed,  (it gets the "respect" it needs from the US so that it relinquishes efforts to disturb the peace in Latin America and the Middle East). It also frees up the US from other entanglements so that it can concentrate on both competition with China and negotiating win-win solutions on trade with China. US relations with Japan and South Korea are improved and both nations are taking a bigger role in their region with other partners India and Australia -so that the US frees up resources for tackling domestic and foreign problems that ensure US regains its position as a powerhouse for manufacturing, industry and world class infrastructure in the next decades to 2050. That is the surest way to a safer, better world for Latin America, Europe, Asia and Africa. ...

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An excerpt from the hearings on the major questions doctrine and separation of powers with Congress. JUSTICE ROBERTS: Sometime ago you dismissed the applicability of the major questions doctrine, and I -- I want -- want you to explain that a little bit more. I mean, it seems that it might be directly applicable. You have a claimed source in IEEPA that had never before been used to justify tariffs. No one has argued that it does until this -- this particular case. Congress uses tariffs in other provisions but -- but not here. And yet -- and correct me on this if I'm not right about it -- the justification is being used for a power to impose tariffs on any product from any country for -- in any amount for any length of time. That seems like -- I'm not suggesting it's not there, but it does seem like that's major authority, and the basis for the claim seems to be a misfit. So why doesn't it apply again? GENERAL SAUER: Well, we agree that it's a major power, but it's in the context of a statute that is explicitly conferring major powers, that the point of the statute is to confer major powers to address major questions, which are emergencies. So it would be unusual... And another excerpt from the hearings on fentanyl- JUSTICE KAGAN: And, in fact, you know, we've had cases recently which deals with the President's emergency powers, and it turns out we're in emergencies everything all the time about, like, half the world. GENERAL SAUER: Well, this particular emergency is particularly existential, as Executive Order 14257 says, and, of course, no one disputes the existential nature of the fentanyl crisis, which, you know, we had an agreement last week to create progress on, which illustrates the effectiveness of the tariffs tool (this refers to the agrement with China last week by Nov 1 that cuts the 20% tariff from 20% to 10% if China completely cuts off flow of fentanyl from inside its borders.)  Clearly some in the US have not grasped the existential nature of the fentanyl crisis, a crisis of proportions so great that it would be an existential crisis for any nation. A concentration of the world's manufacturing in one nation with a trade surplus of $1 trillion with the world is also an emergency that extends into the existential sphere. ...

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Putin takes the first step for Russia to join in discussions for a lasting peace. More than a ceasefire is needed, as many ceasefires have come and gone and the war is now over 15 years old, pausing for a while and then starting again many times. Russia calls for addressing the underlying issues behind the war.  It started with Russian support for Yakunovich 2010-2014 which ended with the Maidan protests in Kviv and Lviv. Russian and Putin strategy at that time was that as long as  a pro-Russian or a person leaning towards Russia with good relations to the West -as existed in some of the former states in Eastern Europe during the 1980's during the Soviet Union such as Poland and GDR- this would be acceptable. The Maidan protest led upheaval thus had a contrary effect which Germany under Merkel and France under Sarkozy and Hollande failed to grasp. Obama judged Russia by its GDP, ignoring its history and relations among European states as one of the major powers in Europe, a technological state with nuclear power. As China shifted away making the integration of Hong Kong and now Taiwan a priority under president Xi, and asserting the virtue of its state run capitalist system over free market capitalism, the fissures began to develop in the system that prevailed after World War II and which survived the fall of the Berlin Wall. These are some of the origins of the war and are also in some of its aspects geopolitical and relate to world peace,, and peace inside nations in general outside the Ukraine war. And here relate to Venezuela Mexico and US inaction in tackling borders and cartels, the US border with Mexico, Syrian war and Syrian refugees entering Germany/Europe, the anti refugee movements in Germany and the EU, refugee crime in US and Europe, all connected in some way to the unsettled borders of the Russian state with US and Western European + Eastern European states in NATO and the EU nearby. And the limiting or removal of Russian influence in Ukraine seen by Russia as unacceptable in regions nearest to Russia that speak Russian. Britain has the virtues of its parliamentary democracy, yet it is far from Russia's borders and it just like the Russian Empire had an Empire in India and a near thing to an Empire in China, as recently as 1950, over history of western colonial empires of 500 years not too long ago. Which means it is good to be starry eyed but the reality in European history since 1400 is of dominant states and colliding or co-existing spheres of influence, mostly co-existing in some balance of different states in the interests of peace and welfare of the people.     ...

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Comments in the WSJ on the Trump - Putin meeting in Helsinki, and what the U.S. president should watch for in conversations and negotiations.  It says Mr. Putin's top priority is to shore up his prestige at home, to enhance his political standing. It says Mr. Trump is intent on showing the two countries can get along well but is skeptical of Mr. Putin's intentions on arms control and other issues. The efforts to increase the discord between the European Union and the U.S. are seen by the WSJ as Mr.Putin's effort to erode the will of the West to add to its capabilities. That any American president has to be wary of this effort especially in light of recent events.   From Mr. Putin's point of view the Russian economy is now in much better shape than when the "liberals" were running the country with a collapse of the Russian currency. The need to restore Russian prestige. That the expansion of the EUropean Union and NATO to the borders of Russia, and the situation in first Georgia and then Ukraine, required Russia to respond to protect its defense from foreign threats.This led to wars and intervention in Georgia and then Ukraine as part of Russian policy in response to advances of the West to its borders, and support of proxy governments in the Middle East. The response to economic sanctions was to turn to influence elections in the U.S. and Europe and the U.S. to soften sanctions. On the issue of sanctions this has not happened and the goal of Russia is to mitigate the effect of sanctions. ...

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Spain lifts its state of emergency and reopens it borders after 13 weeks o coronavirus with 28,000 dead and 245,000 cases. Prime minister Pedro Sanchez said "we can all be a wall against the virus or the means of its transmission. It depends on each and every one of us." He said the government was building up its strategic reserve of essential products to cope with any potential second wave. Masks will continue to be mandatory in public spaces when physical distancing of 1.5 metres is not possible.

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For the second time in two decades U.S. carmakers embrace SUV's with growing demand, moving away from passenger cars. The last time this happened in the decade before the financial crisis of 2008, automakers in the U.S. took a big hit when SUV sales collapsed, with GM and Chrysler heading into bankruptcy, and Ford in dire straits. This time increases in fuel economy and a more favorable economy are leading to higher demand for SUV's. In 2017 sedans, coupes and other passenger cars made up 37% of U.S. sales compared to 51% in 2012.  The Trump administration's move to lower fuel economies in a way poses new risks for U.S. automakers, as it is the very strong push for higher fuel economy and rapid improvements in the technologies that make this possible that have made the newer SUV's such as the Ford SUV line more attractive to buyers.  Historically the U.S. automakers have slipped badly on this issue and not managed it well as economic swings have completely reversed automakers profits. This mistake will be repeated without the automakers own push to drive demand in directions that cushion it from reversals in the economy with a broad based product line supported by new technologies. A look at Japanese car strategy shows a commitment to this concept of maintaining a borader based product line with new technology advances in each segment. Something where the U.S. automakers have found themselves asleep at the wheel. ...