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The U.S. tones down expectations of results in trade negotiations with China. President Trump says China may be thinking, "lets wait 13, 14, 15 months till the election." With the U.S. presidential election coming up China may be looking at the prospect of negotiating with someone from other parties.

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Do not judge US UK relationship only by trade of $148 billion yearly. US companies invested $1 trillion in the UK in 2023, and UK companies invested $630 billion in the US. Both countries share a common economic, law and constitutional framework, and British settlers opened up a vast continent in North America by settling along the Atlantic coast from Maine to the Carolinas. It is this system that was adopted in India, Canada, Australia and other parts of English speaking countries of the world.

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President Trump reiterated his threat to place tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods in addition to earlier tariffs on $250 billion in goods.  The problem China faces is that it China imports less, far less than the U.S. does. China has only $10 billion in U.S. goods to place tariffs on. This is after placing tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. goods, mostly agricultural products such as soyabeans in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on the $250 billion of Chinese goods. China could place a ban on imports from Boeing or restrict the access for U.S. companies to the Chinese market. U.S. companies have invested billions of dollars in the China and employ about 2 million Chinese in well paying jobs. Concerns about unemployment would be uppermost to prevent these jobs being affected. Other concern for China is the loss of foreign investment as relations deteriorate. Already supply chains in some products such as clothing and consumer products is shifting other countries in Asia. In automobiles the regional hubs are expected to shift with India as a potential hub for Asia, and Mexico preserving its place as a North American hub following renegotiation of NAFTA. In media the dispute is leading to a shift from Chinese consumers buying Adidas instead of Nike and Huawei smartphones instead of Apple.  For an already slowing economy this hurts China more than the U.S. which is why the U.S. is pushing China to settle with an agreement that the U.S. can trust to bring down China's trade surplus. For the U.S. as most of the loss in exports is in agricultural products the solution has been to provide government aid to farmers, and for Mr. Trump to use the issue to point out that he is fighting for U.S. interests and for fairness. This is why the trade dispute poses more problems for China. Because the surplus is so wildly skewed in China's favor after the inaction of many U.S. presidents just as it was for Japan in the eighties, the situation appears to be headed towards a definite reversal of the lopsided trade surplus enjoyed by China. In the process the U.S. plans to build up the competitive edge it has lost to some degree.  ...

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China is competing directly in advanced industrial goods such as semiconductors, EV's, machine tools and other products that German industry produces, shrinking the market for German products. By keeping its markets open after the US limited access to its markets for highly subsidized products made in china -with the goal of displacing American goods, jobs and factories under China's successive 5 year plans- Germany now faces the same direct threat the US faced and which took away America's production base. America's textbook based economists, and their followers in American business, who added loads of meaningless math to economics - adding lack of transparency for financial shenanigans- and took out the economic history, who lacked humility to see that other rivals could emerge from nowhere, bear a great deal of responsibility. Germany is now awakening to this experience of the United States and the threat it poses to its own industry.

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It reduces oil prices a little bit so why not let India buy Russian oil for 30 days- Scott Bessent announcement March 5 2025. Bessent said for the US- "India is an essential partner of the United States, and we fully anticipate that New Delhi will ramp up purchases of US oil. This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran's attempt to take global energy hostage."

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The details of a $2 trillion rescue package for business, the economy and households which was passed in the U.S. Congress. The U.S. government plans to take stakes in airlines in return for assistance. Some of the aid $25 billion is in the form of direct grants and some $25 billion in the form of loans. This is how it breaks down in the legislative text as shown in WSJ. To keep businesses open and from laying off employees- $454 billion loans for large companies, and $349 billion for small business loans. Safety net for families. Payments directly to households $301 billion. Unemployment insurance payments $250 billion. Support for the public health systems in states, and private health systems to tackle the health crisis and meet new needs of $117 billion. Aid to states  $150 billion To maintain flow of goods. Direct grants to cargo carriers and airlines of $29 billion. Other $198 billion.     ...

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The U.S. and China presented conflicting views on trade and security in Asia-Pacific region at the APEC summit in 2018. Vice President Pence said "we don't drown our partners in a sea of debt," in a criticism of the China Belt and Road Initiative. The U.S. has 1500 new projects and $61 billion in new investments in the region. Mr. Xi Jinping stated " confrontation in a Cold War, hot war, trade war will produce no winner." 

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U.S. will no longer allow Chinese flights to the U.S. if U.S. airlines are not given permission for flights to China. Chinese airlines continued flights to the U.S. after U.S. airlines stopped flying in February and March. Air China, China Southern, Xiamen, and China Eastern operate reduced flights to the U.S. President Trump's order could bar flights starting June 16, or earlier.

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Greenland was originally explored by both the US and European explorers. It is sparsely populated only on the shores in one part of the island and Denmark has laid claim on it and now handles foreign affairs for the country and security. With its location near the Arctic and Chinese ships increasingly found near the Arctic, the US feels it is important for security in the Arctic. The US and Denmark now both lay claim to the island of Greenland.

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Rising fuel prices are altering buying patterns across airlines, autos, food and other businesses says this report in WSJ. With prices at over $5 a gallon the impact is being felt across the US and other economies. Export of oil from the US for arbitrage opportunities and lack of growth in the shale industry with price volatility, is resulting in shortages of supplies and higher prices. About one fifth of the 8.3% inflation increase in April 2022 in US was from oil price increases. Similar patterns are seen in Europe and other countries. Inflation is expected to last through 2023.

Pent up demand for travel after the pandemic lockdowns means travel by car and by airline is increasing at a time of higher inflation and oil prices. Motorists in the US are making more frequent trips to gas stations as they fill up for a specific dollar amount.

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Cook and Olson look at how U.S. shale oil firms have handled the slump in oil prices. Their report in WSJ says the shale firms have weathered the oil slump well, with production declines in 2016 of only 535,000 barrels a day compared to 2015. The Saudi decision to not cut production and let oil prices drop has affected mostly higher cost less flexible production for mega projects such as deep water projects and oil sands in Canada. Oil shale firms are expected to snap back, according to experts, as demand increases. U.S. production is expected to increase by about 700,000 barrels a day by end of of 2017, say experts.

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The U.S. Census Bureau shows incomes of American households, the median household income, surged in 2015 by 5.2%. This increased by $2800 to $56,500. This is the largest increase since 1967. It shows that steadily improving employment and hiring is leading to improvement in incomes for the middle and working class. Ris in minimum wage has also helped . The largest increase was for the lowest 20% of the income tiers. Full time working women did better than men, with increase annually of 2.7% for women, and 1.5% for men. Nocitizen incomes increased 10.5% to $45,100, native born households went up 4.4% to $57,200. The number of people without health insurance also declined from 33 million or 10.4% of the population to  29 million people or 9.1%. Another way the changes are helping lower income households is the decline of the official poverty rate to 13.5% in 2015 by 1.2 percentage points from 14.8% in 2014. Through a series of small incremental steps the path is being set for a recovery of household incomes for the middle class and working class. A bright spot is that the improvement has affected all age groups, household types, regions and ethnic groups, though among full time workers women did better than men. In this recession older white men have had more difficulties getting back into the workforce. This is reflected in the political scene in 2015-2016 for the election season. ...

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Documents cited by German magazine Der Spiegel show the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) spying on the European delegation to the UN. An open letter to Britain's prime minister David Cameron published on Sept. 1, 2013 in Nordic newspapers, Sweden's Dagens Nyheter, Finland's Helsingin Sanomat, Denmark's Politiken, and Norway's Aftenposten, says: "We are deeply concerned that a stout defender of democracy and free debate such as the United Kingdom uses anti-terror legislation in order to legalize what amounts to harrassment of both the newspaper and individuals associated with it." The reference was to the Guardian newspaper which was asked to hand over Snowden document files to the British government. The Guardian newspaper destroyed computer equipment containing Snowden files after being pressured by the Birtish government. The open letter said Cameron's action "were undermining the position of the free press throughout the world." The issue of spying by the NSA has aroused strong sentiment in Germany and the Nordic countries because of memories of the period before 1945....

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The European Union governments are finding it increasingly difficult to salvage the Iran nuclear deal and lifting of sanctions. European governments rejected Iran's 60 day ultimatum to help circumvent U.S. Trump administration sanctions. The U.S. sanctions have already led to Iran's oil export to drop from 2.5 million barrels a day to 1 million. Lost shipments have cost Iran $10 billion hurting its economy. Initially European nations France and Germany hoped to keep the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by working with Iran, but this has become increasingly difficult with the Trump administration increasing sanctions including limiting access to U.S. markets for nations that do not cooperate with U.S. policy. The U.S. pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and now it looks like the Europeans are faced with a difficult choice in continuing to work with Iran.

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The India- U.S. trade deal after the negotiations and the visit of the Indian prime minister to the U.S. is expected to take additional time. The U.S. wanted to see a 20% duty on mobile phones and ethernet switches to be reduced, greater access to the Indian market for medical devices such as stents and knee implants, and greater access for dairy, agricultural products. Making these products affordable in India is a goal of the government preventing it from making concessions. India wants preferential access to the U.S. market as a developing country restored under the Generalized System of Preferences.  A comprehensive trade deal would have to include issues of intellectual property, e-commerce, and the sensitive issue of H1B visas. Commerce minister Piyush Goyal led negotiations for India and Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said the two sides "narrowed" down their differences. India's Jio from Reliance Group has hugely reduced the price of mobile phones and mobile data making it accessible with 4G across the country at prices that are the lowest in the world. The introduction of a universal health care program requires bringing down the price of medical products to improve access to modern medicine. This means less room for American products that would increase the price and reduce access in a vast developing country. India is also playing catchup in these technologies so that there is less room for unrestricted entry in the Indian market.  Efforts were made to increase trade and investment in India with the help of Mr. Bloomberg during the visit of the prime minister, and the Bill Gates Foundation continued its commitment to public welfare gains in India in the fields of sanitation, hygiene and healthcare.  ...

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China's dollar for dollar retaliation on $16 billion of U.S. imports with 25% tariffs set to take effect August 23 excludes oil which was on the original list. China takes in about one fifth of the total U.S. oil exports, and in the space of 2 years has become the largest importer of U.S. oil. Experts say China could be shooting itself in the foot if it decides to place tariffs on oil imports from U.S. China is dependent on foreign sources for 70% of energy needs and this trend continues. Another reason say analysts is that by keeping oil out of this trade dispute there is more chance that China can continue importing Iranian oil through a waiver  after U.S. sanctions on Iran go into effect in November.

The U.S. also exports higher quality oil that is less polluting and a grade which is used in newer plants.

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The U.S. is falling behind China in the race to setup 5G technology networks. This requires government collaboration with private industry that was missing in the U.S. China has taken the lead by prioritizing 5G global leadership through central planning, subsidies, university training, and recruitment of tech talent. 

In the U.S. a small group of activists made net neutrality an issue says the WSJ leading to extensive proceedings at the FCC and acting as a distraction from the task of setting up 5G capabilities. The U.S. now has to catchup in this field using its strong 4G network for upgrading to 5G and its innovative tech culture for the apps needed.

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President Trump says TikTok app would be banned in the U.S. after September 15. He said he had talked to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and told him Microsoft could buy the apps U.S. operations but if it does so a substantial portion of the price must go to the U.S. Treasury because of the approval of the deal the U.S. is giving after the review. He told Nadella "Look it can't be controlled for security reasons by China- too big,too invasive. Here's the deal, I don't mind whether its Microsoft or somebody else, a big company, a secure company, a very American company buy it."

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US China agreement on TikTok sale to American ownership as required by Congress, Scott Bessent announces that an agreement has been reached with China in negotiations for the transfer of ownership. China is concentrating its energies in negotiating tariffs that were kept at 30% by the US and 10% by China which hurt Chinese industry in industries where it has overcapacity.

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Cornyn is a 5 term Republican senator from Texas who was once a rival of Mitch McConnell for Senate Majority Leader. He lost in the Texas Republican primary to challenger Ken Paxton, Attorney General of Texas. Paxton got the Texas Republican base to back him with CJT's endorsement. The result Paxton wins by 64% to 36% and heads into a fight for the Senate seat with Talarico of the Democrats. Texas voted for DJT by a margin of 14%. Democrats are targeting this Senate seat with huge fundraising. Ted Cruz defended his Senate seat against Rep. Allred with ad spending reaching $210 million in 2024. Talarico has raised $27 million in 3 months, Paxton $7 million. It shows that regardless of which party, both parties spend heavily and raise enormous sums making them beholden to special interests that make it difficult to change aspects of the system such as runaway pharmaceutical costs, cost of living, or to regulate banks, social media, cyber currency, and AI. The result is that Congress has less credibility and poor approval ratings with the public than ever. US Congress has disapproval rating of 90%, only 10% approve of its conduct and performance. Among Democrats 3%, Republicans 20%, and Independents 11%. ...

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U.S. oil exports are expected to average 1 million barrels a day for all of 2017. In 2016 in some months the average was 1 million barrels a day. U.S. oil exports make up 1% of global oil volumes, yet the added inventory has helped keep prices in the range of $46  to $55 a barrel in mid 2017. American crude is at a $2.50 discount over the Brent crude benchmark, making it profitable to export to far away locations. Back-haul economics also helps as tankers coming back from the middle east can now take crude back with a stop in Europe. Oil exports go to China and Europe. Production declines in China have led to China importing from the U.S.

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The US abortions increased by about 9% from 2017 to 2020 says this report in WSJ, going from 862,000 to 930,000 according to the Guttmacher Institute. Some states expanded Medicaid access to abortions and increased funding, leading to more services being added. Illinois for example had 25% increase which may have included women from Missouri going to Illinois. If the Supreme Court reverses Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 precedent that established the constitutional right to abortion, 25 states would restrict or prevent the access to abortion.

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US added 206,000 jobs in June 2024, unemployment remained steady at 4.1%.

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Even though volatility is high in stock markets, the U.S. stock market has rebounded to levels in August 2019. The level on March 10, 2020 after effects of the coronavirus on the global economy was for the DJIA average in the U.S. to be at the level it was on August 14, 2019, as shown on the graph in the WSJ, in the neighborhood of 25,000. In the last quarter of 2019 there were steep gains in the Dow Jones averages that could not be fully explained, these gains have disappeared. Considering the suddenness of the crisis from the coronavirus in China, and the double whammy of impact on global manufacturing supply chains of first the tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., followed by the coronavirus, the impact on stock markets seen in this overall context is comprehensible. Particularly the sharp gains in the last quarter of 2019 which now appear to be muted. There is also some good news for economies such as China and India, which are large oil importing countries, and the rest of Asia, in the sharp drop in oil prices that helps cushion some of its impact on the global economy. For the U.S. this also happens at a time when the economy is in much stronger shape than at any time in the last ten years. ...