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Stocks poised to gain 24% in 2024, about 15% average for the last 6 years, and about 10% over the previous 6 years.

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The NYT editorial says the negative feedback loop of foreclosures begetting falling house prices, which beget more foreclosures, and further weaken banks, is well under way. One way to have broken this, was to enable good types of loan modifications, which reduce the principal for homeowners and reduce payments significantly. Sheila Bair at FDIC says 32% of prior payments is about the right amount. The bad types of loan modifications that lead to no reduction in principal, and put homeowners back in redefault because of large payments that homeowners "under water" or a lost job cannot afford, have so far been the dominant kind of loan modification. At present 14 million homeowners are "under water," in that their homes are worth less than what is owed on the mortgage. One of the crucial measures which would have enabled this, has not been pushed by the Obama administration through Congress. This was to pass an amendment that allowed bankruptcy judges to modify troubled mortgages. Banks which have taken billions of dollars in loans from the federal government were allowed to lobby aggressively to kill this amendment, and the Obama administration did little to push this amendment in Congress. 12 Senate Democrats joined 39 Senate Republicans to block a vote on the amendment. Says the NYT editorial "when the time came to stand up to the banking lobbies and cajole yes votes from reluctant senators-the White House did'nt. When the measure failed there wasn't even a statement of regret." This could turn out to be a major mistake, because as the NYT points out voluntary loan modifications have shown poor results. The administration's plan to provide incentives for loan modification is untried and tested, and may not produce significant results. With 14 million homeowners under water, and spiralling foreclosures, the situation may get out of control and seriously damage the economy. After the moratorium in home foreclosures ended there is expected to be a big surge in foreclosures, with estimates of 290,000 to 341,000 foreclosures in March, 2009. If this is allowed to continue it will undo all the good work in other areas, the stimulus spending, rebuilding the auto industry and other steps. It will also be more difficult to reverse as valuable time passes and the cost of the crisis escalates. A consensus among many experts was that stronger action in connection with the banks was required, and Martin Feldstein has warned about the danger posed by foreclosures since early 2008, see links....

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Ukrainian view on surrendering the 25% of Donbass it does not control for peace deal are shown here in interviews by DW.com in that region near the frontlines. The Kviv Institute of Sociology survey shown here is that 71% of Ukrainians are against giving up the 25% of Donbass. Survey in the Donbass region show 47% opposed, 29% undecided and 24% support giving up tereritory for a peace deal. About 200,000 people mostly pensioners and people who do not want to see their home being looted still live in the Kviv controlled Donbass areas near the frontlines. What about elections? If elections are held and an Ukrainian party including that of Zelensky were to agree to surrendering the Donbass how would the Ukrainian 71% opposed or undecided react. Other attitudes to giving up the rest of Donbass is that there is afeeling even among people who might favor this for a peace deal that Russian forces might continue the war at a later time. Germany's Merz is investing heavily to build up the Bundeswehr and recharge the German economy- the German response is to coordinate with UK, France and Italy and the EU to set up a bloc independent of the US to respond to the peace overtures of the US president with one's of it's own that do not include giving up the Donbass, and to create guarantees that the war ends here, no sporadic starts as in the last 2 decades. ...

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Passage of a spending bill in the U.S. Congress in December 2014 to avert a government shutdown. The $1.1 trillion spending bill funds the U.S. government through Sept 30, 2015. It was achieved by Speaker Boehner gaining the support of Democrats in the House of Representatives. 56 Democrats joined 162 Republicans for passage of the bill 219 in support and 206 against. Tea Party members joined Liberals in Congress under Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to oppose the bill.

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Even with a lower troop committment, the new costs of $ 1 million a year for each soldier, threaten to wipe out the $26 billion in savings from Iraq in 2010. The overall military budget could go up by 10% from a high of $667 billion under the Bush administration to $734 billion. Head of the House Appropriations Committee, David Obey, of Wisconsin, says that sending more troops to Afghanistan would drain the Treasury, and "devour virtually any other priorities that the President or anyone in Congress had." Rep. John Murtha of Pennsylvania head of a House subcommitte on defense appropriations says that a majority of the 258 Democrats in Congress would vote against any bill to pay for more troops.

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Daniel Webster once said the Nation will do fine as long as it retained faith in the Bible and in spirituality. In 2025 33% of Americans attend religious services, 68% (Christians Jews Buddhist/Hindu) pray once a day, 80% believe in spirituality. This is shown in the Pew Research Religious Landscape Report just out in 2025. In America 40% are Protestant, 19% Catholic, 4% other Christian, and 2% Jewish, 2% Buddhist/Hindu. About 65% of the population openly identify with Christianity and the Bible, and this is now stabilized over the last 5 years. It is important to remember that Abraham Lincoln questioned some church religiosity and practices, yet had a profound belief in the Bible, his Devotional based on the Bible that was published in London in 1854 was one that he kept with him for most of the years serving the Nation. For close to 70% of the population having a belief in the Bible, and in God, is a good sign for the future of the Nation as it approaches it's 250th year, and a community that settled these British colonies and a vast continent since the 1600's for 400 years. ...

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Health officials around the world, companies, governments, and schools are creating health policy on the fly, and prefer to err on the side of caution in setting policy. The American government said that it would deny entry to foreign citizens who traveled to China in past 14 days, and American citizens returning from Hubei province, china, will be quarantined for 14 days. Major airlines have stopped flights to China. Nothing like this has happened before. A major public health experiment in setting policy is underway, mostly preferring lockdown or quarantine as preferred method. 

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Saudi Arabia is accelerating the IPO of Saudi Aramco after the attack on Saudi oil facilities by missiles and drones. Saudis decided to import oil to keep their commitments to supply oil to other countries as the attack took out half the country's oil production. The IP instead of floating 5% of Saudi oil company Aramco will now float 10%, double the initial target. The 10% could raise $200 billion and help the company recover. This depends on the valuation being close to the Saudi estimate of $2 trillion. Analysts estimate valuation at $1.5 trillion which would raise $150 billion.  There are differences in how large the IPO should be in Saudi Arabia, between the government and the management of Aramco. Mr. Falih, head of Aramco was removed after working for a 5% limited float of Aramco, when the government favored 10% because of growing needs in defense and industrial, and new city sectors.  The broad contours of the plan are to float 1% in 2019, and another 1% on the Saudi domestic stock market, Tadawul. Followed by a 3% listing on an international stock exchange, Tokyo a possible choice. The Saudi government wants to float another 5% after this. Saudi officials and contractors estimate it will take months for production to be restored to levels before the attacks.  ...

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On taxes instead of $100 billion a year increase in the deficit that the 2017 tax cut of Biden's predecessor cost the Treasury -which benefited average Americans only $750 a year studies show, and reduced corporate taxes from 35% to 21% shifting billions to large corporations- Biden proposed $500 billon cut in the deficit by putting a 25% tax on 1000 billionaires in the US. Biden's guarantee that no one making less than $400,000 a year would pay an extra penny in taxes. Everyone would be better off, no one worse off. His predecessor's 2017 tax cut did not increase investment spending by companies which remained same as before. "There are 1,000 billionaires in America.   You know what the average federal tax rate for these billionaires is? 8.2 percent!  That’s far less than the vast majority of Americans pay.   No billionaire should pay a lower tax rate than a teacher, a sanitation worker, a nurse!  That’s why I’ve proposed a minimum tax of 25% for billionaires. Just 25%.  That would raise $500 Billion over the next 10 years." Only some of it would pay for the following the rest to cut the deficit- "Imagine what that could do for America. Imagine a future with affordable child care so millions of families can get the care they need and still go to work and help grow the economy.  Imagine a future with paid leave because no one should have to choose between working and taking care of yourself or a sick family member.    Imagine a future with home care and elder care so seniors and people living with disabilities can stay in their homes and family caregivers get paid what they deserve!  Tonight, let’s all agree once again to stand up for seniors! "       ...

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Russia's Elvira Nabiullina, has helped Russia avoid the worst effects of the collapse in oil prices with the careful management of the economy. Russia has weathered the crisis better than most emerging markets, say experts, with policy moves that included a devaluation of the ruble, recapitalizing banks, increasing the share of public debt in Russian hands, and assistance to poorer sections of society. Following the last crisis in 2008 Russia built up its rainy day fund, the sovereign wealth fund, to $500 billon to help support the economy in difficult periods. Experts say, and Nabiullina concurs, that what is needed now even more than a rise in oil prices is improvement in business conditions and business climate to generate growth following high interest rates of 17% in 2014. Exceptional performance by an exceptional banker, known for her humility and experience through several crises, as deputy economy minister in 2000 and economy minister in 2007. Better relations with the European Union would do just that, particularly to increase foreign investment in Russia's economy, and restore the conditions for growth. ...

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U.S. budget deficit reached 10% of GDP with the 2008-2009 recession and the need for federal spending when tax revenues dropped. Partisan budget fights took place in Congress in 2010 and 2011, with a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating in 2011. By December 2014 the budget deficit declined to $488 billion for calendar year 2014, or $483 billion for fiscal year, as the unemployment situation improved. The deficit in 2014 was a liitle below 3% of GDP.

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Is the UK government committed to keeping the triple lock on pensions that help pensioners, retirees, keep up with the cost of living. Liz Truss the UK prime minister waffles on this issue by first saying yes, then no, then yes. The US just announced social security payments to retirees will increase by 8.6% in 2023. The triple lock is a way of saying that pensions will be increased each year by the maximum of inflation or average earnings, and more than 2.5%. With inflation at over 10% UK pensions would be increased similar to the US, slightly higher by 10%. This is critical to meet needs of older Britons or Americans, and similar policies are being followed in France, Germany and other EU countries. Housing costs are rising very rapidly. This leaves less for food and heating. This means some older Britons or Americans are missing meals. In Britain a TUC report shows one of seven Britons missing meals because of income not keeping up with the cost of living crisis, which is now number one on people's minds.  ...

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Tution fees in the UK are 9450 pounds. The cost of housing about 7500 pounds in 2024, up 15% over the last 2 years. In addition to the over charges on student loans for Plan 2 Loans in Britain that take it from 4.3% with a surcharge of 3%, there is the 15% inflation in housing costs in Britain that households and student have to contend with. This situation is true today for Britain, the US and Germany, and other countries in the EU leaving less for food and transportation costs. This is why there is an added level of worry and anxiety for young people in Britain the EU and in the US, and for their parents.

Others one with a business economics degree and a solicitor apprentice in a law firm face the same situation. He works in finance and just sees it as he says a tax on having gone to university.  Similar stories across the US. It doesn't have to be this way for advanced nations education is FIRST PRIORITY.

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Burton Malkiel says other ways to rebalance and adjust allocations after the surge in equity prices in the U.S. and Europe are to invest in high quality emerging market bonds, quality U.S. municipal bonds with rates of 7%, high quality large caps with dividends over 5%, and quality emerging market stocks which are at price earning multiples of 10.

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The failure of the new administration of Pena Nieto to implement public spending programs during the transition period added to other problems leading to a decline in growth in Mexico. GDP growth was 1.1% for 2013. Construction spending and exports to the U.S. were also weak. Lack of natural gas supplies in some regions also played a part.

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Azaz Patel of New Zealand becomes only the third bowler in international cricket to take 10 wickets in one innings in the second Test India vs. New Zealand. He joins Jim Laker of England against Australia in 1956 and Anil Kumble India against Pakistan in 1999.

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A passenger hears aloud noise near the overhead bin, then sees ahole not far from his head in the fuselage of the plane. This is Southwest flight 2294, June 13, 2009, on a 30 minute 737 Boeing airplane flight from Nashville to Baltimore. outhwest inspected all of its 181 737 planes and found no problems. The National Transportation Safey Board, the FAA, and Boeing are investigating what caused it to happen. In March, the FAA ordered Southwest to pay a$7.5 million fine for aseries of safety violations in which its jets were flying with undetected fatigue cracks. The investigation also uncovered efforts by managers to cover up reports of maintenance problems at Southwest. Two inspectors filed whistleblower complaints aginst the FAA claiming that they were threatened by the superiors after warning that Southwest was flying planes too long between inspections.

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Toyota showed a net profit of 290 billion yen or $3.71 billion for its fiscal first quarter. With its sharp rebound Toyota keeps it forecast of net profit of 760 billion yen, operating profit of 1 trillion yen, and sales of 22 trillion yen for the fiscal year through March 2013. Toyota set its annual production for the calendar year at 9.76 million vehicles, an increase of 23% over the prior year. By comparison General Motors showed second quarter profit of $1.85 billion, a decline of 38% from the prior year quarter, and Ford at 1.04 billion, a decline of 57%, with both companies showing losses in Europe. Toyota has smaller European sales as part of total sales. In the U.S. market Toyota expects market share to reach 14%, an increase of 1.1% from 2011, according to Takahiko Ijichi, senior managing officer.

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The Netherlands, home of the Maastricht summit, is seeing public opinion shifting to negative opinions about the euro and supporting countries such as Greece. Some experts say the idea was right but the method was wrong. Some polls show a majortiy supporting going back to the old currency, the gilder. An EU survey in 2009 showed 80% of Dutch people supporting the euro. Frits Bolkestein, former EU commissioner for internal markets, points out that Chancellor Kohl insisted on Italy which had not met its debt criteria becoming a founding member of the monetary union, something that made it possible for over-spending Greece to join the euro only 2 years after the 11 founding members. Bolkestein led the party that now runs the Dutch government. His view is that political romanticism overwhelmed sound economic thinking and realities in the formation of the eurozone.

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Amazon's revenue for 4th quarter 2011 increased 35% to $17.4 billon. Profit for the 4th quarter 2011 declined by 57% over prior year quarter, as Amazon increased hiring, and invested in warehouses, technology and in Kindle electronic promotional sales. Operating expenses were up 38% from the prior year quarter. Operating margin was 1.5%, declining from 3.8% in the prior year quarter, but up from 0.7% in third quarter 2011. Analysts estimate that Amazon sells the Kindle at a loss of $15 per unit. Kindle Fire sales were up to an estimated 6 million units for the 4th quarter 2011. Hiring jumped and employee count was up 67% for 2011 over the prior year, up to 56,200 employees. Forrester Research estimates that overall internet sales growth for 2011 was 10%, showing that Amazon sales growth was much faster.

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A drought in northern China is shaping up to be the longest since 1951, matching one in the winter of 1970-71. This will affect world food prices as adverse weather has also affected Russia, Australia and Argentina, which are major food producers. China has large reserves of grain and has the foreign exchage reserves to import wheat. China's wheat imports rose to 1.2 million tons in 2010, according to Global Trade Information Services. This compares with global output of 682 million metric tons of wheat in 2009, as estimated by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Because China accounts for one sixth of global wheat production, this will put pressure on wheat prices. The Chinese government has cushioned price rises by asking provinces and cities to raise the minimum wage, which went up by 18% a year in Guangdong province.

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The severe drought in China is affecting the provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei and Shanxi, which produce about two thirds of China's wheat. China's Xinhua news agency is reporting that the drought in Shandong province could be "the worst drought in 200 years." China's retail wheat flour prices were up 8% over the two months to January and up 16% from the same month in 2010. The drought puts at risk the winter wheat crop harvested in June, according to the FAO. The FAO provided figures showing that 5.16 million hectares of a total of 14 million hectares of wheat producing areas are affected. China maintains large stores of wheat, estimated at 53 millon tons in Dec 2010, by Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Agribusiness Consultant Ltd. The reserves act as a buffer for shortages.

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Mr Niederauer, CEO of NYSE Euronext, who will be the CEO of a combined NYSE-Deutsche Bourse, took pains to emphasize that it is a merger, a business combination arrangement, not an acquisiton. Because Deutsche Bourse current stock market value is $15 billion compared with about $10 billon for NYSE Euronext, Deutsche Bourse shareholders will get 60% of the combined company. The issues of ownership, the name of the new company and the headquarters and management team, are sensitive ones because the NYSE has traditionally been a symbol of America's role in the world of finance. American lawmakers want to see NYSE appear first in the new name to symbolize America's position in the world of finance. For this reason Deutsche Bourse will not appear first, and the headquarters will be dual headquarters in New York and Frankfurt.

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The stock market rally appears to have legs with the increase in revenue growth for the fourth quarter. But what supports this other than the Fed's bond buying, which suppresses the true cost of capital, is a question posed by analysts. Add to that transfer payments such as unemployment and other benefits which help sustain consumer spending levels, but are temporary measures. Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research says GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2011 could be more than 5% year on year. The question is whether this is pulling growth forward from later years, so that larger dips could be expected ahead? Brokerage firm LCM Commodities says transfer payments from the government to consumers were 16-18% of personal consumption expenditures between 1995 and 2007. This has jumped to 22% by the end of 2010.

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Dell is more dependent on corporate buying of PC's than HP and Acer. In todays world companies tend to hold onto their older PC's for longer and this affects Dell's PC sales. Dell was slow to adapt to the changes in the PC industry, where preconfigured laptops could be made at lower cost in China than at Dell's factories on customized basis. HP and Acer moved quickly into these Chinese factories, and Dell was a latecomer to contract manufacturing. Michael Dell returned to day to day responsibilities and he has made several changes. Dell is increasing its retail presence, and acquired Perot Systems for $3.9 billion in 2009 to expand in the services business. Company demand is improving gradually and Desktop PC sales went up 13% and laptop sales up 18% in the first quarter compared to 2009 same quarter.