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U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman, Janet Yellen, says the Fed's promise to be "patient" before raising interest rates means it will hold off for 2 months to check economic conditions before taking action. This would put the decision off till June 2015. The Fed will look at a range of factors including inflation, says Yellen. Yellen's comments to the Senate Banking Committee on Feb. 24, 2015 were- "I don't want to set down any single criterion that's necessary for rate increases to occur. We will be considering a range of evidence that pertains to the inflation outlook." In testimony Yellen said she wanted to be "reasonably confident" that inflation will return to 2% before raising rates. The Fed's measure of inflation, Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index is below the 2% inflation target of the Fed for 52 of the past 68 months, and for 34 consecutive months.

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Mexico has emerged as the world's fourth largest exporter of cars in 2012 after Japan, Germany, and S. Korea. Mexico is expected to surpass S. Korea in a few years. In 2011 2.68 millon cars and trucks were manufactured in Mexico. Honda, Nissan, VW and other companies are building new plants in Mexico. Exports in 2012 are expected to reach 2.14 million cars. With the increase in wages in China's auto plants Mexican wages are highly competitive with China, considering the proximity to markets in N. America and Latin America. Wages in Mexico are about $40 a day for assembly line workers. By comparison wages in China are about $3 an hour. Honda plans to manufacture its Fit small car in Mexico. VW executives say a VW car made in Europe is imported into Brazil with 35% duty, into the U.S. with a 25% duty on trucks, and this can be avoided by making automobiles in Mexico. The quality and reliability of vehicles made in Mexico compares well with vehicles made in Japan, according to Nissan, and productivity at plants is high. There is also good avialability of engineers and plant workers. The growing automobile production also means new plants of auto suppliers from Japan, Germany and other countries in a snowball effect as new auto plants open creating new demand for components....

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The nuclear arms race between Russia, China and the U.S. accelerates in 2016, as the arms control effort suffers a setback with poor relations between the U.S. and Russia, and China's bid to build up its nuclear weapons. This makes the world a more dangerous place, and puts at risk the gains made in the early years of the Obama administration with the SALT arms control negotiations and treaties in 2010-2011.

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This WSJ report looks at the efforts of sugarly cola companies such as Pepsico under a new CEO to push their cola products aggressively with advertising, and modern logistics. It cites Barry Popkin, nutrition professor at the University of North Carolin School of Public Health that they are making products that are killing us more slowly. With less sugar than before but still at a time of dangerously high obesity levels in the world just as dangerous or more dangerous to humans, because they are not as healthy as previous generations. The pandemic proved the danger of higher obesity levels. The numbers say it all-1% of children 5-19 years obese in 1975 going up by 8% to 9% in 2020, and doubling to 19% in 2035, says the WSJ. That is doubling by 2035 to 19%-  simply astounding. Popkin says the fact that Americans are living more years with disabilities, and fewer disability free years, is very much linked to the food intake. On The Guardian's pages was an article about a surgeon who has a startup in Austin, Dr. Attia of Early Medical, that promotes "healthspan." It focuses on getting healthy living habits  through better nutrition, exercize, to start at an early age as being critical for a healthy life span. It is not the same starting at an early age with good food and exercize habits vs starting later in life as this means fewer disability free years when starting later in life.  ...

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This Wall Street Journal editorial says the Balanced Budget Amendment (BBA) currently being put through the House is unlikely to pass especially with a supermajority tax limitation. It raises questions about the advantages of BBA considering that the 1981 Reagan tax cuts may not have survived the BBA, a period when the U.S. experienced robust growth for 7 years. Unintended consequences could put defense spending at risk such as the Reagan spending on defense that helped end the Cold War, which may not have survived the BBA. The editorial calls instead for a repeal of the Nixon administration's 1974 Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act, a law which tilted control of spending in the favor of Congress after Nixon's impoundment battles with Congress over spending. This would mean getting rid of budgeting that uses baselines and increases the budget from one year to the next automatically, restoring the President's impoundment powers, and requiring a two thirds majority for tax increases. The editorial supports the House Republican majority's plan to cut spending in fiscal 2012 by $111 billion and cap spending as a share of GDP in future years....

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Einsinger points out that Treasury Geithner's performance reflects the mindset of U.S. president Obama, reflected also in Obama's other appointments in his administration which favored one group over another. Change that Obama talked about in the 2008 election campaign that propelled his candidacy, turned out to be more at the margins than change and action that reflected a vision of the priorities for America's middle class and vast majority of average Americans. By leaving homeowners to a wave of foreclosures, the administration weakened a middle class at the lower end already hit by the lower wages from globalization in manufacturing, other changes in the global economy, high levels of student debt of over $1 trillion, and the lasting damage to unemployment from the global financial crisis.

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The Biden vaccination target of 70% of American adults at least partially vaccinated with one dose by July 4, 2021 remains elusive as vaccination rates have dropped. From a high of 2 million a day vaccinations have dropped to 400,000 a day during the first week of June 2021. Vaccination skepticism particularly in the south and western part of the US is making it harder to vaccinate the rest of the US population. This poses increasing risks as the new variants of the virus such as the Delta variant found in India, and now the most widely prevalent strain of virus in the UK, remain a serious problem. The unvaccinated population in the US is too large for any degree of safety in numbers vaccinated. Consider that at the press briefing given by the White House on June 3, 2021, only 28 states out of 51 states have fully vaccinated 50% or more of their population. There is a large variation between different states with states in the south such as Mississippi as low as 34% at least one dose and a similar situation in Alabama. In Arkansas, Georgia, Carolinas, and Louisiana  it is higher at about 50% with at least one dose. Even these figures are deceiving as in some parishes in Louisiana only 20% have even one dose. Studies show that only after the second dose are enough antibodies released to protect well against coronavirus. This is why vaccine experts at Baylor College of Medicine cited in NYT foresee a second wave in the southern US because of the South so underachieving in the case of vaccination.  ...

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Matt Miller, a former Clinton aide, says both U.S. parties have failed to do serious problem solving. The reason is that both are looking primarily for election advantage and are not interested in blending the best of liberal and conservative thinking. He even goes so far as to say both parties don't trust the public enough to lay out all the facts openly and explain what action needs to be taken. This is clearly true in one of many examples- the way Clinton advisor Bowles and Republican Senator Simpson took up the job of coming up with a deficit reduction plan looking at things from all angles, and laying out all the facts. Contrast that with the way a Democratic president Obama shied away from openly discussing Bowles-Simpson's closing of most tax expenditures as a key a part of a new action plan. Republican leaders Boehner, Cantor, McConnell, instead of seriously challenging the Democrats to take up the Bowles-Simpson or Rivlin-Domenici proposals, focussed their attention on defunding the government unless certain conditions were met. Serious debates and discussion that should have taken place to arrive at a consensus never took place, eroding the credibility of politicians of both parties, as Miller points out. The failure of leadership brings America back to its roots in community organizing through independent intitiative at all levels for crucial problem-solving discussion. This is the way to arrive at a consensus of what needs to be done for renewing America....

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The fears within Mexico's auto industry that the TPP will allow imports of cheap Chinese auto parts hurting its auto industry, and reversing years of gains made under NAFTA. Canada also has fears about the TPP for its auto industry. Japan uses China and Thailand as part of its supply chain. China is not part of the TPP. Add to this the UAW and Detroit's suspicion of TPP concessions to Japan. This has stalled U.S. negotiations with Japan on the TPP trade agreement in 2015.

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The inflation worse than Germany in the Great Depression, and the collapse of the economy made worse by US sanctions of Democratic and Republican administrations on Venezuela's Maduro regime has led to the largest migration in the history of Latin America. About 7 million refugees leaving a country of about 28 million people or a fourth of the population in a large oil producing country. Socialist Policies of Bolivarist military leaders promoting populism such as oil at pennies a gallon led to the collapse spiralling inflation, and as relations worsened with the US and its oil sector was neglected. US sanctions played a part by 2012. Yet the economy worsened with further deterioration and stronger sanctions under the Trump administration by 2017.  The situation is such that even the US and both parties had never anticipated this, and not the middle and educated, or the working classes in Venezuela. Such a massive failure has never happened in Latin America in its whole history in the twentieth century. Considering the scale of this disaster, actions of all parties in Venezuela, and the political parties in the US have at every step exacerbated the situation. For further interest on this topic use search term Venezuela. ...

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Prime minister Modi's visit to the US comes at a time when US president Biden is eager to show the US is fully engaged in the Indo-Pacific region with its allies in the Quad 4 countries- Australia, Japan and India. The recently announced Aukus defense agreement brought together 2 members of the Quad 4 the US and Australia, plus the UK. Aukus is designed to strengthen US presence as a naval power in the Indo-Pacific region in the Indian and Pacific oceans around India, Southeast Asia, China, and across the Pacific. After a futile engagement in Afghanistan the US is reorganizing its presence where it is strongest- in the oceans. In a way that Britain once did in the eighteenth and nineteenth century, the US is dominant in the high seas. US naval power far exceeds that of all navies in the world combined. This is meant to reassure India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia and Japan, which together have close to twice the population of China, that the US has not diminished its presence in any way from that it had in the 1950's following the Second World War. With this new framework India enters discussions that will focus on health to deal with the pandemic and its after effects, with security and rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region, with trade, technology, new supply chain manufacturing structure in which India plays a key role. With this new focus and clearing past engagements made by other US  presidents, including some mistaken policies, the US emerges as a new force in the Indian ocean, China seas and Pacific ocean region.  On September 23 Modi meets Tim Cook for what could be new supply chain arrangements that Apple could be preparing as it and other US corporations build new supply chain structures to rebuild US manufacturing technologies capabilities that were lost to China over the period 2000-2020. During that period manufacturing technology knowhow was shifted out of the US in a mistaken policy that assumed design and invention were sufficient for the US to keep. The first step in this direction was a change of CEO's at Intel Corp with US president Biden pushing for new US technology reclaiming policy. Following that the new CEO at Intel Corp, Patrick Gelsinger, completely reassessed Intel's mistaken policies of ceding its entire semiconductor manufacturing technologies capabilities to Taiwan and China. Intel made a U turn and is now investing all or most of $50 billion in the US instead of in China or Taiwan.  On September 24 Modi meets Mr Biden to discuss trade, investment, defense, and security. On the same day the leaders of Japan, Australia, Mr. Suga and Mr. Morrison join Modi and Biden for the Quad 4 talks. Indian infrastructure capabilities and Indian economic growth would be key goals to strengthen India along its land borders along Tibet occupied region and Himalayas as part of the overall effort to build a new US and allied presence in Asia.  On September 21 Modi attends a Covid Summit that will look at the way forward in the aftermath of the pandemic and ways to vaccinate the remaining unvaccinated population in the world, as well as vaccination passports.  ...

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Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General says he welcomes the conditions only approach outlined by president Trump for the allied role in Afghanistan. This means taking the appropriate action depending on conditions. NATO will move forward with expected commitments of its members as the U.S. counteracts the deteriorating situation there to prevent a vacuum from developing. This happens following the disastrous results of the Obama administration's withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 against the military's opinion, leading to a reversal of all the hard won gains and increase in terrorism, adding millions of refugees. Gen. McMaster and Gen. Mattis who developed the new plans in 2017 were in Afghanistan during that period.

The split between U.S. and other members of NATO in the current effort by the U.S.to increase others contributions is- 7000 U.S. troops and 5000 troops from other NATO members.

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This report in DW.com discusses the quick rise of Annalena Baerbock, 40 years, to the co-leader role with better known Robert Habeck, 51 years, at a party conference in 2018. In the winter of 2019 she was supported by a huge 97% of delegates at the party conference, with Habeck getting 90%. She has an advantage in foreign policy issues with her education in England at the London School of Economics, where she studied for her Masters degree in International Law. She speaks fluent English, rare in German politics. Baerbock spent 1 year in the US when she was only 16 years old. Very useful now with changes in Europe, the US and India. Boris Johnson in Britain, Biden in the US, and Modi in India, all speaking English.  She has spoken up against xenophobia, and being from Potsdam in the east is able to understand issues facing East Germany. A big change Baerbock says happened in 2019. Then she and Habeck decided to open up the Greens to become a big tent party that welcomes people from all sides. This was a smart choice at the time as Germans moved away from the two main parties- the SPD and the CDU. Dismay from the Schroder years when working class issues were ignored, and dissatisfaction with the Merkel years when investments in infrastructure, social care, health, education were neglected.  AfD support has stalled with the end of the migrant crisis and immigration no longer an issue. Baerbock says today of that 2019 party conference- "What we knew then was that we wanted to open our party up, that we wanted to make policies for a broad society: inviting and with clear objectives. Here today I want to make an offer, for the whole of society, as an invitation to lead our diverse, strong, rich country into a good future." Key changes that could happen in Germany in 2022- Phase out of coal powered energy by earlier date than 2038. No support for increased defense spending. Yet this is not likely to be an issue with the new American Biden administration. Infrastructure and vital investments in health and education would become a top priority similar to the US, UK and India. Careful policy coordination by Germany with the US, UK, France, India and Japan, and other EU nations, as the world shifts into a period in which lessons learned from the pandemic and the last three decades lead to renewal of supply channels and renewal of societies.   ...

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The top 1% of billers get 17.5% of the payments from the U.S. Medicare program for 2012, according to the Medicare agency's reports. The Medicare agency released data with details of payments to 950,000 doctors, medical providers, certain health care companies, the second year this information is being released. This covers $90 billion of payments. Astonishing as it may sound the transparency comes late, after large increases in medical costs and the increasing U.S. deficit. It happened only after the long and persistent effort by the Wall Street Journal to overturn a 1979 ruling that required such records to be kept secret. By intervening in that suit in 2011, the WSJ's parent company Dow Jones was able to convince a judge about the need for transparency, leading to reversal of the injunction in May 2013. The WSJ and the media has used this information to monitor the waste and fraud in the Medicare system, a vital role only the media can perform to protect the public interest.

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Three BP managers are indicted, two on manslughter charges, in the U.S. Justice Department $4.5 billion settlement with BP on the Gulf Oil Spill. Attorney General Eric Holder called their conduct "reckless and wanton," and described this as a clear message to people who engage in this kind of behaviour.

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U.S. added 245,000 jobs in November. Unemployment rate drops from 6.9% to 6.7% as some Americans give up looking for work. The concern now is not the rate of job creation which is healthy but the drop outs from the workforce.  Concern arises from the long drawn out effects of the 2009 financial crisis and its effects which were seen over a decade. This report in NYT says the share of prime age Americans who were employed returned to the January 2008 level in 2019. And then the pandemic hits putting everything back again. This time if the lesson is learned about the long term damage to working families it is that this be tackled as a priority for the central bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, an the Treasury, and Council of Economic Advisors, under the leadership of president Biden. Fortunately both Yellen and the new proposed head of the Council are students of labor markets and have stated this is one of the lessons they have learned and will act on. As this report says the opiate crisis, the risks of addiction increased, and there were links to the long period people were without jobs. The longer a person is without a job the more likely he will become permanently unemployed. The hope now is that the vaccination effort could bring people back to work quickly as business and life resumes in 2021, with workers being hired back. The share of prime age Americans working in November is 76.5% compared to 80.5% in February, which means this has to go up by about 4 percentage points. The people who are not in the labor force today but still want a job are 2.2 million. It is this that needs to be the focus of the new administration, central bank, and Congress. ...

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Concern about the spread of the pandemic in the U.S. with the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday and travel to visit family and friends. Seen from Australia and other countries American fatigue with staying at home is cause for concern. Yet this is not entirely American as governments in France plan to have a phased reopening by Christmas, with phase 2 partial lifting of restrictions of the lockdown on December 15. Austria has turned down German requests to close Austrian ski resorts that have cause spread in Europe. The Swiss have also kept ski resorts open. During the summer Croatia and parts of Spain kept open tourist spots to help the economy recover creating the conditions for spread as tourists went back home. 

Beyond this there a complex web of choices. From mental health to hospitals filling up, from jobs and income for service workers to people in nursing homes, all calling for different responses. 

 

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As the Afghanistan conflict has receded into the background in American minds and the U.S. has become more careful to avoid foreign entanglements, 80 warring factions including the Taliban and the government in Kabul are meeting for talks in Doha, in Gulf state of Qatar. The effort is designed to settle the dispute and settle on an Islamic legal system for anew post war country that bases itself on Islamic values, yet ensures women's rights within the framework of Islamic values. There is an explicit urgency to shed some of the bitterness and the scars from the war once and for all.

Germany's migration crisis was made worse by economic migration from Afghanistan and North Africa in addition to the migration from war torn areas. Germany is now hosting these meetings along with Qatar, understanding the effects of such conflicts reach well beyond distant lands.

 

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Global update on the pandemic April 7, 2020. The U.S. has 368,000 confirmed infections, and over 10,000 deaths, as of April 6, based on John Hopkins University data.

Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe issued an order for a month long state of emergency covering Tokyo, Osaka and five other prefectures.

Philippine president Duterte extended the quarantine for Luzon island to April 30.

The lockdown was placed on Wuhan, China, epicenter of the pandemic on January 23. On March 25 about 2 months later some travel restrictions were lifted. On April 6 trains were allowed to leave for several cities in China. 

Countries in Europe that stepped in early with restrictions such as Denmark and Czech Republic moved to ease them a bit. Czech Republic and Austria will require people to wear masks outside.

 

 

 

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This report in the NYT shows that Mr. Trump thought his forceful personality and going for the big deal would work where a quarter century of diplomacy had failed- to get North Korea to completely give up its nuclear materials and facilities in exchange for complete lifting of sanctions.  The meeting at a French era colonial building in Hanoi was the result of Mr. Trump's sense that he had developed a special relationship with Kim Jong-Un, the North Korean leader, so that he could suggest a grand bargain to Kim. Meanwhile North Korean negotiators had put forward plans for lifting of the most recent Trump sanctions that were affecting the economy and ordinary people severely in exchange for closing down of the Yongbyon nuclear complex but kept details vague. When Mr. Trump met Kim at the Metropole Hotel in Hanoi he gave Kim a detailed list of the nuclear facilities including one that developed uranium near Pyongyang for complete denuclearization, the U.S. goal.  The North Koreans were simply not ready to give up all facilities at once as they said the trust had to be built up before such a move. This report shows the nature of the wild swings from the early efforts to tighten sanctions and take strong action against North Korea., to the meetings in Singapore and Hanoi. At the time Mr. Tillerson at the State Department had suggested after a visit to Beijing that there were 2 or 3 avenues open, which Mr. Trump rejected and instead fired Mr. Tillerson. Mr. Pompeo who replaced Mr. Tillerson at State Department formerly headed the CIA and had detailed knowledge of the North's nuclear program including facilities hidden in tunnels all over North Korea. He and Mr. Bolton the National Security Adviser did not favor having the meetings first in Singapore and then in Hanoi. After the South Korean president's efforts to increase friendship with the North Koreans and his visit to Pyongyang he passed on an offer for Mr. Trump to meet Kim Jong-Un which Mr. Trump in a complete turnaround immediately accepted. This led to meetings in Singapore and then Hanoi with Kim against the advice of Mr. Bolton and Mr. Pompeo. At this point North Korea has suspended further tests but continues its nuclear development. The U.S. has suspended military exercises with South Korea.  ...

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How the Delta Pan Am merger is still a mess at JFK Terminal. Not a good sign for future mergers. Describes the results of prior mergers and shows a rather mixed record at best. Cites difficulties such as meshing computer reservation systems and facilities. Of major importance is the pride in their work and energy of the people involved, and how it be best tapped into, considering the experience of Continental and Gordon Bethune. America West's Doug Parker is trying to do this at US Airways, and Brazilian airline TAM is working with Varig assets.

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Sure Start is a child education program for the early years to provide community centres and services to children started in 1998 under Labor prime minister Gordon Brown and later reduced in funding by the Tories. Efforts to revive the program under Labor party with high degree of child poverty in Britain. Results of the program show children improved in later grades in their learning ability and educational level proficiency. Children from low income households and mothers could benefit from such programs in the US and UK. This is part of an overall effort under Starmer in the UK as Labor returns to government with an expected majority and as Biden continues efforts to raise levels of educational opportunity for children in the US.

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President Moon Jae-In of South Korea will meet Mr. Kim of North Korea in a summit in late April after envoys from South Korea visited Pyongyang, North Korea, for 2 days of talks. The talks come against the background of the WInter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, where the 2 Koreas sent a joint team as part of reconciliation efforts.  North Korea agreed to denuclearize said a South Korean government statement after the talks, saying- "The North Korean side clearly stated its willingness to denuclearize. It made it clear that it would have no reason to keep nuclear weapons if the military threat to the North was eliminated and its security guaranteed." Working level discussions will be held before the Kim- Moon summit meeting and a hotline phone connection will be setup between the two leaders. A recent report in the WSJ shows China for the first time tightening sanctions on the North. Japan has joined the U.S. in taking a tough stand and its foreign minister said that the offer for abandonment of nuclear weapons has come before and North Korea has resumed its nuclear weapons development each time. U.S. experts say that security guarantees were offered by the Clinton administration, including in writing, but this has not prevented the North from moving ahead with its nuclear program. This is the first time Kim, 34 years, has met with senior envoys from the South since assuming power in 2011. The WInter Olympics in Pyeongchang with Mr Kim's sister attending and bringing an offer for a summit meeting, were the first such contacts in years between the 2 Koreas. The new offer comes with an offer to stop nuclear tests, yet leaves open the manufacture of fissile materials say experts. The U.S. and Japan are deeply skeptical and insist on complete and verifiable proof of abandonment of the nuclear program. ...

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Eighteen year old Bianca Andreescu of Canada wins the U.S. Open 6-3, 7-5 defeating 37 year old veteran Serena Williams as she attempted a comeback. The intelligent game with a whole range of shots and use of creative game mixing up the shots was a feature of Andrescu's style that made it fun to watch the game. Martina Navritolova says Andrescu's style is so creative that its great to have a new player like her in the game.

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American farms now produce more soyabeans than corn. It took 2 decades to build up exports to China of $21 billion. Last week China announced it was suspending all imports of American agricultural products in a blow to the farm sector in the U.S. American farmers are also a key support base for president Trump. It was largely the rural vote that elected Mr. Trump and the vote in the midwestern states such as Iowa, Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin that put Trump ahead.