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19 percent of China's exports went to the US in 2017, in 2024 this is 15%, but wait, the difference of 4 percent it is simply coming back to the US but through Southeast Asia. As a result some of the same issues that puzzled Trump negotiators exist today. China's exports surged 12.7% in October 2024 over the prior year. Biden was facing this situation and had yet to respond to the surge in exports to US. These exports were sent to Mexico and to Southeast Asia to circumvent the tariffs. It is the same situation revisited in 2024 with two other aspects of the Chinese economy-economic stimulus gets smaller and the housing and construction industry has imploded, the economy has slower growth. The overall price level in the US with a 60% tariff plus 10% for all countries would be 0.72 addition to the price level of 1.10 percent today- that is when including the depreciation of China's yuan by 10%. as it did last time. The result would be price level in the US at 1.82%, according to J.P. Morgan. Drag on China's GDP of the Trump tariffs in first term was 0.65% according to one investment bank GS, with 60% tariffs it would be 2%. Trump secured a return of $116 billion or 58% of the $200 billion China said it would buy of US exports. The other 42%- the deal was not completed in the end. ...

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Gerald Seib says events in Germany and the handling of the eurozone debt crisis by Angela Merkel will be the key factor in the 2012 presidential electon in the U.S. This is because Europe could slow the growth in the U.S. economy. And the exit of Greece from the Euro, the collapse of some European banks, could create the kind of crisis conditions that would hurt Obama's chances in 2012.

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Shabana Mahmood, new UK Home Secretary in September 2025 says -"Will do whatever it takes to secure our borders. I am not the kind of person who just hangs around."

About Shabana Mahmood it has been said- “She prides herself on not being woke. She prides herself on having normal-person instincts and understanding where the electorate is.”

The Times says this may be just what Labour Party and Starmer needs right now.

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200 US shopping malls closed during the pandemic. San Francisco Center shopping mall is 93% vacant in 2025. Homelessness and crime have increased the problems of vacant shopping malls. Repurposing these malls is a difficult task. With remote work many people have moved away from city centers and the crime and homelessness has reduced the value of properties. San Francisco Center has lost $1 billion in value and has not recovered even when the rest of San Francisco is recovering under Mayor Lurie.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve's forecast for the American economy is for growth in GDP of 2.2%-2.7% for 2012, wih unemployment of 8.2-8.5% by the end of 2012. The Commerce Dept. estimates for GDP growth are 3.0 percent annual rate for the 4th quarter 2011. Fed chairman Bernanke remains cautious about the economic prospects for 2012. Higher oil prices are expected to push inflation above the 2.0% Fed target for 2012. Bernanke's description of the recovery in early 2012 is that it is "uneven and modest" and unlikely to improve much for unemployment.

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Le Monde shows Fontainebleau Forest just 60 miles from Paris as a adaptable forest with ONF help 2025. ONF is the National Forestry Office in France, and its regional unit's deputy head, Mr. Boudin, describes how ONF has made this forest a lab for adaptable forests management. Its DEPERIS protocol puts drones over the forest to categorize 765 trees in categoreis from A to D. About 40% of the forest is suffering effects of shortage of water as the forest is on a sandy plain increasing the effects of drought and heat in summers. Another ONF plan is to plant 60,000 seedlings of downy oak, beech and other saplings each year, protecting areas of trees that need protection. In this way it is 20 years of other forests in other parts of the world.

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The Tories are seen shifting their position from working with the unions during the pandemic and Boris Johnson's position that there would be no return to the period of "low wages, low skills, and low productivity," in this analysis in The Guardian. Faced with risks of higher inflation in Britain the conservatives have shifted to supporting no more than a 3% wage increase for rail workers in the face of 8% increase in inflation in Britain in 2022. Rail airline, other workers,, and the government now are on opposite sides on wages after joining together during the pandemic. Shortages of workers have pushed up wages in some sectors but others are lagging behind including transport workers, leading to the rail strike and other strikes of public sector workers.

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The free food rations programs with 5 kilograms of wheat or rice to 800 million Indians during the pandemic is one of the extraordinary accomplishments of the Modi administration. It has been extended till the end of 2022. Both Finance Minister Sitharaman and prime minister Modi have shown extraordinary empathy for the common man during the pandemic and India's program of wheat rice and vegetables is unprecedented in world history for its scale and efficency. The scene of Nirmala Sitharaman at a vegetable market in Mylapore today is only one aspect of the contact day to day with ordinary Indians and their problems that marks the Mann Ki Baat radio program of Modi and of Sitharaman herself as she tackles the work of the finance ministry with the last person in the line uppermost in mind.

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Electric vehicles (EV's) get a tax credit under the Biden Climate Bill also called the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. To qualify for the tax credit of upto $7500 buyers of EV's have to meet income and other requirements. Only cars with final assembly in the US qualify for the tax credit which should help boost American EV manufacturing capabilities and technology. This removes the problem of automobile job losses for factories shipped overseas.  EV's must not be priced above $25,000 for 2 year used cars, and $55,000 for new cars. SUV's can go upto $80,000. Income limits (as AGI) are $300,000 for joint filers, 150,000 for single filers for new cars. For old cars it is $150,000 for joint filers and $75,000 for single filers.

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The Guardian looks at food poverty in the UK in 2022. About 800,000 children living in poverty in the UK do not qualify for free school meals. The rise in the price cap for electricity and gas this winter to 3549 pounds for the year from October means many homes will have to choose between heating and food. Energy price regulator Ofgem has allowed a 80% rise in the UK energy price cap. In Britain only children whose parents earn less than 7400 pounds are eligible after year 2 of school.

The energy price jump in UK of this type is unusual for the major countries of Europe. In France the price of energy is capped and Germany offers  financial support for energy bills for low income people. 

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How to know where inflation is headed is shown here in charts in the WSJ. One has to look at the charts for oil and energy costs, automobile costs which are about one fifth of the inflation, retail prices, travel costs, expectations that drive prices. As the pressures decrease for demand for goods in 2022 following a pandemic induced increase in demand the inflation is driven largely by energy and automobiles costs. Amazon is renting out the extra space that it does not need in warehouses is one report in WSJ today. Pharmaceutical companies such as J&J are also seeing an easing of demand as reported in WSJ. The bottlenecks at the port of Los Angeles are also easing with improved unloading of containers which eases flow of goods.

 

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Kristof of the NYT says about American unions that the basic reality is that with the decline of trade unions in the last two decades workers got stiffed. The wages of new auto workers at $17 an hour dropped to levels close to the minimum wage of $16 in California in 2022. At $34,000 a year these workers were below the Federal Poverty Level for families of $35,000 to $40,000. Workers lost dignity and standards of living declined. After 15 years of covering the crisis of America's working class he says he lost his disdain for unions, and he has come to believe that unions are not just good for the workers but also for America itself. Unions he says are imperfect just as capitalism is imperfect, but essential for America.

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Queen Elizabeth was more comfortable with Labour prime ministers than Conservatives. This included Harold Wilson of Labour. The Queen had a prickly relationship with Margaret Thatcher. King Charles  has strong views on social issues such as housing and migration, and on climate change. Charles 75 years and Keir Starmer 61 years are shown here to have similar views on social issues in Britain. If Starmer wins the election they will meet weekly, and have much in common. The royal historian says there is a meeting of minds in terms of the social issues at stake, the plight of the people of Britain. The national anthem was played at the beginning of the Labour Conference in 2022. Sir Keir Starmer was made Queen's Counsel in 2004 and was knighted in 2014 for his services in public prosecutions. 

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U.S. manufacturing continues its rebound from the pandemic as it gets to overall output at 5% below February levels before the pandemic by November 2020. Capacity utilization in November is 73%.

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A converted train station sitting on the Seine river in Paris is the site of one of the world's famous museums. It is undergoing a renovation starting in 2025.

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Novavax gets $1.6 billion to deliver 100 million doses of vaccines for use in the U.S. possibly by end of 2020. Regneron gets $450 million federal contract for vaccine  development.

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Potash a potassium based fertilizer mined from the earth is environmentally friendly unlike nitrogen and phosporous based fertilizers. When Belarus and Russia which make 40% of world supply of potash could not supply the world market because of the war in Ukraine, Canadian producers which make 30% of potash stepped in to increase market share. Two Canadian producers will increase production to meet demand after a 28% increase in the price of potash. Potash has the added advantage of being good for the environment and for climate change action. The use of potash needs to double to meet climate change action goals. Nutrien, the world's largest producer of potash in Saskatchewan, Canada will increase production by 2026 from 15 million tons to 18 million tons a year. BHP has a new plant coming up in Saskatchewan in 2026 for 4.35 million metric tons of potash. 

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Chris Buckley of the NYT looks at selected speeches of president Xi of China to military officers during the first 5 years 2012 to 2017 but fails to look at the China Xi Jinping faced in these years. It was a period of change in China when it was not clear which direction China would take after the messy experiment with free markets under a socialist state controlled system led by the CCP. That period from 1990 onwards led to hypergrowth in China that modernized China yet shifted American and European manufacturing to China alienating working class communities in the western countries. It hurt China also through widespread contamination of air and water, and widespread corruption and decline of the CCP. The Bo Xilai demagogic effort to subvert the system from inside happened by 2012 endangering the system itself from the inside while it responded to the pressures created by the experiment with free market from corruption, regional inequality, and other problems. ...

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The vast Permian Shale Basin is becoming more of a factory with disciplined large producers in 2024. More than one third of the production is from three producers Diamondback Energy, Exxon Mobil and Occidental compared to 30 mostly wildcatter companies in 2014. These companies are not likely to increase production in the way smaller companies did over the last decade when they increased production by over 10%. 

Over the period from now 2024 to 2030 production increases will be limited by geologic limits, older shale fields. Most onshore basins outside of Permian in the US are actually declining in production and production there is at about 4 million barrels a day.

Total production is about 13 million barrels of oil a day under president Biden and will only reach 13.5 million barrels a day by 2030. Employment 200,000 at the peak in 2014 is now a little over 100,000.

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How an Americano Roberto from Peru won election over Italian cardinal Parolin on May 9, 2025. Robert Francis Prevost was unknown to most of the Cardinals gathered from all over the world to elect Pope Francis's successor. What cardinals looked for was someone like Francis who was concerned about the poor, the homeless, and people struggling in society. They also wanted someone with managerial skills to run the vast organization that is the Vatican. The fastest growing part of the Catholic Church is in Latin America. The need was for someone who spoke Spanish and understood Latin America. Robert Francis Prevost met all these requirements in 2025. For most of its history, for 455 years, Popes were Italian. Pope Paul and Francis broke this tradition. Pope Leo XIV continues this effort to heal people's souls, and reach out to the marginalized and the struggling.

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16%  of seats in Lower House and 30% of seats in Upper House of Japanese parliament are filled by women. Japan has set a target of 30% for women in leadership roles in society by 2020. The lack of women's restrooms is not limited to parliament as it extends to public restroom facilities throughout Japan, which authorites have pledged to fix.

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Across the US a high percentage of people have seasonal allergies- over 25% in adults and 19% in children. A research institute at University of Utah found that higher temperatures from climate change leads to higher pollen counts. A warmer winter and warmer temperatures earlier than usual have worsened allergies in 2023.

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Actions being taken in the UK to prevent spread from variants of coronavirus in July 2021 as increasing number of British tourists visit France, Greece and Portugal. Quarantine is now required at home for 8 days for vaccinated people from UK coming back from France because of a rise of cases in France

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The US central bank, the Fed, holds interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.5%, while holding out the possibility of increasing rates in the future. Overall price increases have declined to 3.4% since September 2023, from 7% earlier, allowing the Fed more room to pause increase in interest rates to fight inflation.

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Germany's second quarter GDP drops by 10.1%. For the year 2020 a 2.8% drop in GDP is expected. The jobless rate held steady at 6.4% unchanged from June. About 6.7 million people are enrolled in a German state funded furlough scheme in May up from 6.1 million in April.