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China lifts pump prices for gasoline by 10%. Supply shortages have been reported The rising value of Asian currencies such as the rupee help to cushion the increase in crude oil prices in India and other countries. In China and India the Government keeps the price of gasoline and other fuel at affordable prices and oil companies cannot pass on the increase in oil prices. China's oil consumption is increasing rapidly at about 9% a year and lower oil prices does not encourage conservation, at the same time oil prices to consumers especially in the rural and farming areas can be painful if food prices are also going up. How to balance these two considerations and also the international aspect where increases in China's demand for oil are itself a cause of demand side pressures leading to ever higher oil prices, is a challenge for China's policymakers.

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Toyota sees a sharp drop in sales after street protests against Japan in Chinese cities. Japanese media reports show Toyota sales in China for September 2012 dropped to half the sales of 75,300 cars in August 2012. Feelings are strong on both sides and for the first time it appears to be affecting economic relations.

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Migrant workers in China are not allowed to bring their children with them when they move to work in factories located in urban areas. This is the large price being paid for the rapid industrialization in China for 2 decades 1990-2010 by the 61 million children of migrant workers. Lixin Fan's documentary "Last Train Home" documents the life of children of migrant workers separated from their parents for long periods of time. Analysis from the All China Women's Federation shows 75% of the 61 million children left behind by migrant workers have parental visits once a year mostly during the national Spring holiday. 82% of these children want their parents to come back home and 42% say they have no one to talk to when they feel bad. A large proportion of the children are missing parental attention at the most sensitive age when they most need it- 38% left behind are ages 1-5, 32% ages 6-11.

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The title is misplaced- does India have an edge with development in Uttar Pradesh after many administrations since Jawaharlal Nehru's time in his home city of Allahabad. Can water and electricity, Jal Jeevan and Swacch Bharat (Clean India) make a difference in India's largest state. Is development for all impartially given, funds impartially allocated indifference shown to caste and religious lines for delivery of services by the state and federal governments? India and China were at about the same place in 1990 as both countries opened up- can India close the gap. Can Indians stretch the imagination to set stretch goals like China has done. Most of the Indians who fail to stretch the imagination fail to remember that Beijing was mostly filled with bicycles for transport during 1990. China remained undaunted in 1990, she persevered against all the odds. So must India. In the US and European Union competition with China it looks to India for restructuring the supply chain. Is Uttar Pradesh a good place for domestic and foreign investment? Water and electricity goals are being achieved in Uttar Pradesh. Fundamental to development is the rule of law, as this sets the basis for development. Adequate infrastructure, a clean India, is what creates a good climate for investment from outside the state and from other countries such as Japan, the US and Germany. Uttar Pradesh now has the potential to lead the way.    ...

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This article in DW.com looks at China's development of the port of Hambantota, made using a loan of $312 million from the Export-Import Bank of China. State owned China Harbour Engineering worked on the construction of the port. This report says the port can handle about 2500 ships initially to take some of the load off of Colombo port which handles about 6000 ships annually.

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The severe drought in China is affecting the provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei and Shanxi, which produce about two thirds of China's wheat. China's Xinhua news agency is reporting that the drought in Shandong province could be "the worst drought in 200 years." China's retail wheat flour prices were up 8% over the two months to January and up 16% from the same month in 2010. The drought puts at risk the winter wheat crop harvested in June, according to the FAO. The FAO provided figures showing that 5.16 million hectares of a total of 14 million hectares of wheat producing areas are affected. China maintains large stores of wheat, estimated at 53 millon tons in Dec 2010, by Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Agribusiness Consultant Ltd. The reserves act as a buffer for shortages.

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The Economist points to a second hit from bad debt in the post 2008 stimulus binge of spending in China. This is after an earlier hit, that was absorbed as a result of high growth rates and high savings. About $420 billion was injected into 5 state owned banks since 1998, according to one estimate, as a result of the first hit to China's banks from bad debt. In this second round of bad debt, covered in more detail by David Barboza in the New York Times, and merely alluded to here, many bad loans to infrastructure projects were rushed through by local governments. The Economist considers this one of the successes of the state directed banking system, that loans were quickly made and projects started in the post 2008 crisis period; and expresses the view that this hit will be absorbed just like the last hit. However the more detailed account by David Barboza and in Business Week, points to the working of a system of incentives gone astray in a capitalist system without the necessary controls or regulation. Local governments used investment companies to take on loans, which were then used to prepare properties to be auctioned off at a profit and speculative prices to state owned companies in different industrial sectors. This is part of rampant speculation in China in real estate markets. Can China with its high savings and growth absorb a second hit? This depends on the magnitude of the hit and the size of the bad debt, which depends on how long this speculative market continues to operate, and how bad debt is hidden in the books. The difference this time is that large state owned companies in different industrial sectors are engaged in this speculation. The other difference is that the high growth rates in China depend on continued large trade deficits with the USA and Western Europe, something which is not likely to continue for long, as consumers in Europe and the USA with high debt are becoming cautious spenders. This suggests that China, like the US with the mortgage crisis, faces the same effects of unregulated or uncontrolled speculative behaviours, that can endanger the banking system....

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WSJ Lingling Wei's interview with Ding Xuedong, chairman of China Investment Corporation on its plans and strategies for 2015-2016, and future years. China's government formed CIC in 2007 to improve the returns on its foreign exchange reserves, estimated at $3.8 trillion in 2015. China Investment Corporation had largely stayed with low yields on U.S. Treasury debt till 2007. CIC has about $650 billion in assets in 2015. Its strategies provide insights into how China sees the outlook for the global economy. Ding sees opportunities in real estate and infrastructure, with a focus on the U.S. and Europe for steady cash flows. He singles out the U.S. as of particular interest as its economy rebounds. Strategies also include paring down of energy holdings. Foreign holdings are now $220 billion and have increased by 16.6% since 2009. A special unit CIC Capital was formed recently to more directly participate in managing foreign holdings with a long term view. Earlier focus of CIC on natural resources and commodities is now shifting as the commodities crisis has reduced long term prospects in that sector. The plan for the future is to shift to an allocation where financial products such as stocks and bonds are about 50%, and long term assets such as infrastructure investments, real estate and other investment take up the other 50%. At the end of 2013 equities and fixed income represented 57.4% of CIC global assets, and 28.2% were in long term assets. Ding wants to see China as the No. 2 engine for the global economy after the U.S. as No. 1. He sees the prospects for Brazil, Russia and South Africa as poor, and is optimistic about good performance from India, Mexico and Nigeria. On Japan Ding is skeptical of prime minister Abe's plans because he sees the lack of structural reforms in the efforts leading to a kind of lazy effort in his view. CIC is learning from the experience of other national investment funds and improving its in-house investment and management capabilities. Ding has many years of experience with China's Finance Ministry, the Cabinet, and the State Council. ...

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Chinese stock markets as measured by MSCI China Index were up only 1.7% so far in 2023, showing concern about the durability of the economic rebound.

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Siemens and Alstom join together to compete effectively against China's CRRC in Asian markets. CRRC is itself the result of the merger of two large rail companies in China. China has about 12500 miles of high speed rail network, more than the rest of the world combined. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan is pushing for Japan's Shinkansen bullet trains, with billions of dollars in soft loans, including an effort to build the first high speed rail in India between Bombay and Ahmedabad.

Japan and the European companies have an edge when it comes to longer experience with high speed rail and better maintenance track record, to compete with CRRC's lower price tag.

 

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Krugman cites Apple as the largest company in the U.S. in terms of its valuation but having only 43,000 employees in the U.S. He asks the question- why does Apple get most of its manufacturing done in China? Apple indirectly employs about 700,000 people at its suppliers, with most of them in China. Companies contribute to a country's economy by creating successful clusters of research, innovation and manufacturing. In Apple's case, to the great detriment of the U.S. economy, the manufacturing part is being done entirely overseas. If cost is the only factor for this, then the question remains how German manufacturing has managed to surivive and grow with wages that are higher than in the U.S.

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After lifting of a decade long ban on the console Sony plans to build sales volume for the Playstation 4 in China.

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"China's Superbank," by Henry Sanderson and Michael Forsythe looks at the rise of China Development Bank to provide insights into the two decade real estate boom in China, and the trillions of dollars in loans made by state owned banks to finance China's state owned industries and infrastructure development. The authors say these loans based on land owned by the state, improved with roads and other infrastructure and then sold to industry, have helped finance China's urbanization and industrial development. But it has also created problems including eviction of farmers from the land by local government authorites increasing inequality, led to misallocation of capital on bad projects, and an unsustainable model of development focussed on state owned companies. A major side effect of this is not covered in the book. This is the impact of crowding out of credit for private industry in China, with privately owned business having to pay higher rates in the underground loan market or lacking financing. A major focus of the report "China: 2030" by the World Bank and China's official think tank Development Research Center is on reversing this development to come up with a sustainable development model. The report was supported by World Bank chief Zoellick and China's new prime minister Li Keqiang. "The Great Rebalancing," by Pettis, a finance professor at Beijing University, looks at the other side of the financing of China's boom- the low interest rates on savings for China's consumer. This reduces household incomes and reduces purchasing power as the interest rates are lower than the rate of inflation. Lower value of China's currency also reduces the purchasing power for China's consumers. Estimates show the low interest rates cost China's workers and consumers somewhere in the range of 3 to 8% of GDP annually in bank deposit income. This money is funnelled through the banking system to make more loans for infrastructure and growth at the state owned companies, concentrating exraordinary level of financing in one direction. As a result the consumption share of GDP in China has actually fallen in the two decades of hyper development. This is about 34% compared to 50-55% for other Asian economies....

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Ikea's kitchen design team in Sweden and efforts to design the "Metod" kitchen. This took five years with attention to details for bringing the cost down. IKEA sells kitchens costing as low as $3000. The effort pays off in emerging markets such as China, Russia and India.

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Tencent's social networking app Weixin has over 300 million users in China. A version WeChat is being marketed in Europe and the U.S.

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China's COSCO taking an ownership stake in Hamburg port was opposed by the Greens and Free Democrats parties in the three party coalition government with the SPD in Germany. Scholz of the SPD went ahead over their opposition saying this will preserve jobs in Hamburg port. In the compromise reached the ownership is capped at 24.99% so that no foreign country owns a majority stake. At one point Germany's cyber security agency BSI classified the Hamburg port as critical infrastructure.

China is Germany's largest trading partner  for 7 years with trade reaching a record $320 billion.

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Zelensky is going to Hiroshima to make his own case for support directly to all G7 leaders. The fact that G7 leaders are meeting in Japan also has significance as Japan unlike Europe with NATO faces Russian presence in its northern islands and China in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, North Korea, with only the American defense agreement in any conflict. Japan, Australia and India would want to see a clear end to the conflict in Eastern Europe that also sends a message that the status quo will be preserved on Taiwan and other issues in Asia. 

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By 2024 Dholera Special Investment Region airport and the expressway linking Ahmedabad to Dholera will be operational, says India's Union Minister Piyush Goyal. Developed from scratch on vast stretches of land in the Gulf of Khambat 100 kilometres from Ahmedabad it is expected to be India's best manufacturing zone,  comparable or better than any manufacturing zone in China. It is part of the industrial effort to build world class manufacturing zones in India that fit in with the shift of manufacturing from China as part of the redesign of world supply chains to avoid overconcentration in any one part of the world.

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The global economic map is rapidly redrawing bringing US and Europe closer. The US has imported more goods from Europe this year than from China. In September alone says WSJ Germany exported 50% more goods to the US year over year with the weaker euro increasing the momentum. European FDI foreign direct investment in the US increased by 13.5% in 2021 to $3.2 trillion. US FDI to Europe increased by 10% to $4 trillion. There is a push on both sides of the Atlantic to increase local manufacturing, and to increase trade, and shift supply chains away from the overdependence on China.  

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This Guardian report provides a timeline for lunar exploration. The last Apollo Moon missions date back to 1972 with Apollo 17. It lasted 12 days with the first crewed space flight to the moon taking Schmitt and Cernan to moon's surface while Evans orbited above. Since then it has been quiet for lunar exploration till Chang'e 3 lander and rover from China in 2011 put China on the moon, followed by Chang'e 5 in 2020. Today August 23, 2023 India puts its own moon lander and rover on the South Pole of the moon which is expected to have water.

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The out-of-control steel manufacturing capacity and production in China in 2015.

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China's economic growth has slowed further to 6.1% for 2019 following trade tensions and tariff war with the U.S. Further decline in economic growth is expected.

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Foxconn announces salaries for workers would increase by 16-25% to about $400 a month before overtime. Foxconn plans to reduce overtime. Foxconn is a major supplier in China for Apple Computer.

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In China since 1981 the poorest people making below $1.25 a day fell to 207 million in 2005 from 835 million in 1981. In India the number of people below $1.25 a day increased to 455 million in 2005 from 420 million people in 1981. The share of the people in poverty fell to 42 percent from 60 percent during the same period. Corresponding figures for East Asia including China show a drop from 80% of the people in poverty in 1981 dropping to 18% in 2005. The proportion of people living below the $1.25 a day poverty line worldwide fell over the nerarly 25 year period from 1981 to 2005 from 52% in 1981 to 26% in 2005. In subSaharan Africa, now the poorest region half or 50% of the people live under the poverty line of $1.25 a day in 2005 almost where it was in 1981. In absolute numbers the region had 380 million people living below the poverty line in 2005 compared to 200 million people in 1981. Note that the World Bank this year changed the poverty line from $1 to $1.25 a day, to make allowance for the inflation that is hitting the poorer countries. Is China a rich nation after the Olympics? Some parts of China, the coastal regions and the regions around big cities like Shanghai and Beijing are relatively affluent with pockets of poorer people but in the rest of the country there is poverty as defined perhaps in terms of deep poverty, poverty, poor middle class without health insurance or any kind of savings for emergencies. With 200 million people in 2005 below the poverty line a question could be asked how many people in China below say $2.00 a day which could be seen as being poor at a time when inflation in food and fuel costs has been significant in developing countries. If its somewhere in the range of 300 and 400 million people in China this explains why in relative terms China would identify with India and the rest of the developing countries and it also explains its stand in the WTO trade talks acting as a developing country protecting the rights of agriculture and farmers within China. And it also explains the reasons why China sees a long transition before it ceases to be a poor developing country and why there is real concern that these 300-400 million people as well as others adversely affected by the rapid industrialization and exercize of state authority, corruption and increasing gaps between rich and poor, adverse effects on environment, that these people adversely affected are listened to and accomodated in the interests of stable progress and fairness. Much of recent history has shown that countries open to foreign trade have done better given the right conditions and careful policy measures. China opened up around 1981, and India around 1991. Also progress and gains are more significant in infrastructure building and in poverty reduction in the latter phases of development as the synergies increase, capital pool increases, and the development accelerates, this shows why China's gains look significant compared to India's at this point in time. In ten years or fifteen years a better assessment could be made and then some points may favor China and some India, and the results will be a result of different history, experiences and problems faced and routes taken because of prior developments in each region and varying complexity. ...