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US Defense Security Cooperation Agency in State Department approves sales of Javelin and Excalibur missile systems to India November 19 2025, at a price tag of about $95 million. This increases US military sales to India to over $20 billion. FOr India to get a good trade agreement with the US, the US government set two conditions - increase purchases of US products and stop funding Russian attacks on Ukraine by reverting to the situation in 2019 when India purchased about 4% of its oil from Russia. India's purchases of discounted oil from Russia are a recent development. Indian and Chinese refiners have cut purchases of Russian oil, according to recent reports in WSJ. The increasing arms purchases from the US is a development that has taken place throughout the Modi administration since 2014 cutting dependence on Russian supplies including India's building its own capacity for defense products.

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US GDP growth is 2.9% in 4th quarter 2023, down slightly from 3.2% in the third quarter, after interest rate increases by Jay Powell at the Fed.

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This Guardian editorial is critical of Rishi Sunak for economic policies in Britain that reduce borrowing at a time of high inflation and falling living standards in 2022.

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During the primaries Trump appealed to blue collar voters of a white working class that felt neglected by leaders and policies of both parties that did not seem to work for ordinary people. Having caught onto this early long before Republican candidates, Trump registered a series of wins in the Republican primaries. He continued this theme in his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention on July 21, 2016, saying- "The forgotten men and women of our country- people who work but no longer have a voice: I am your voice." The idea was to couple this with the theme of law and order and put perception of Hillary Clinton as part of the rigged system of the past that Trump would change, with Clinton's legacy described in terms of "death, destruction, terrorism and weakness." As a change agent Trump described his entering the political arena in terms of coming into this election only to help blue collar people "so that the powerful can no longer beat up on people that cannot defend themselves." The two themes for the rest of the election season- law and order, and blue collar lives- and who can best defend them a traditional Democratic politician with a fighting spirit for traditional Democratic values, or a blustery newcomer adept with slogans and the public mood and ironically representing the Democratic values of representing the working class to become the  Republican nominee, with the law and order theme thrown in. The voter or independent listening in to all this will hopefully ask what all this means. As the WSJ, July 19, 2016, pointed out in a recent look at economc policies under the two candidates- on Glass Steagall Act being reinstated to increase safety of the banking system that caused many of today's problems through the 2008 financial crisis both Trump and Clinton are similiar, on opposing trade agreements similiar except that Trump's bluster is a riskier approach, on infrastructure building similiar with Clinton's $275 billion plan spelled out out for source of financing and Trump's unclear as to source of financing. On immigration the candidates are different, on the minimum wage which impacts low income people Clinton supports $15 minimum wage and Trump has not taken a stand. On ISIS and the Middle East Clinton is in reality a hawk and not much difference in the candidates, on law and order more chance of divisions in the country with Trump than Clinton. Overall for the working class and blue collar voter his life will take a decade or more to rebuild, with both candidates commiting to go in that direction. And the bluster and ads to come- just that.  ...

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US stock markets reflect AI capital misallocation fears, with NASDAQ down 2.2%, S&P 500 down 1.56% on November 20 2025, after NVIDIA results are announced. NVIDIA down 3%. Lyrarc articles this week showed major AI capital misallocation fears. This is a positive sign that the market is taking this into account so that financial exchanges operate correctly, reward good investments and downgrade bad ones with excessive risk.

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The problem of breakthrough infections requires people to follow all necessary prevention measures including social distancing, mask use, ventilation of indoor spaces, and hand washing, even if they are fully vaccinated. People who have taken vaccination very early in 2021 and have waning protection need a booster shot to build up immunity levels. Studies show that breakthrough infections can take place, making it all the more important to take all precautions.

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With 686 million doses of vaccine given to people over age 18 India has now given more vaccine doses to people than all the G7 nations combined- this includes US, France, Germany, Italy, Japan. About 7 million doses were given on a recent day in the first week of September 2021. About half of the population of 1.2 billion people is vaccinated with one dose and 17% are fully vaccinated.

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A Focaldata poll that shows 63% of the British public now believes in 2023 that Brexit created more problems than it solved. Only 21% believe it solved more problems than it created. Years of austerity policies, Brexit, the cost of living crisis, have created new challenges for Labour to tackle.

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A thin Republican majority in the single digits, many elected with an investigative mood, and 3 newcomers from New York who are moderates to be targeted at the outset by Democrats will make the House ungovernable says this analysis in the NYT of the US Congress midterms of 2022. 

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Disha Amrith of Mangaluru of Indian Naval Air Operations, will lead the Naval contingent at Republic Day celebrations on Jan 26, 2023. She is one of the Indian Navy's 144 young sailors and will be part of the 'Nari Shakti' in the Naval air operations force.

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500 modern Vande Bharat trains at a cost of about $6.5 billion are expected to be part of India's Budget for 2023. This is part of the effort to modernize India's rail system used by tens of millions of people under a modernized system of mobility.

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With the completion of the 22 kms Mumbai Trans harbor Link and the Navi Mumbai Airport, Mumbai gets a second new airport and connectivity by 2024 that will meet the growing needs in the city. TOI gives a look at the $1.7 billion project that is being handled by Adani Airports.

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The San Francisco Bay Area region is blanketed by smoke so thick that it is dark at noon on September 9, 2020. The haze was so bad drivers had to keep headlights on. Fires fueled by strong winds are a huge problem. Smoke from the fires is blocking out the sun.

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China's central bank PBOC reduces interest rates to reduce borrowing costs of heavily indebted households. Households in China carry more debt than households in the US. Mortgage costs are a key part of the debt for households in China. It points to slowing of the economy in 2023.

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This report in NYT says games are decided in a few moments but England were second best throughout the game in the finals of World Cup Soccer 2023 with England playing Spain. Olga Carmona does something that is rare with the one winning goal against Sweden and now against England.

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Thodex cryptoexchange in Turkey lost $2 billion for users who could not withdraw funds. It imploded in 2021. The founder of this cryptoexchange was sentenced for a lengthy period by Turkey's prosecutors. WSJ compares sentences in Turkey to the sentences in the US for fraud and money laundering.

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Biden balances the order closing the US Border with Mexico with action to protect 500,000 undocumented spouses of American citizens from deportation and giving them a pathway to citizenship. Biden says it protects American values to keep families together. This will bolster the support for Biden among Latinos in 2024.

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Barmer, Rajasthan hits 48 degrees centigrade. The heat wave affects election turnout in Rajasthan state of India and in other parts of India.Delhi sees temperatures of 45 degrees centigrade. Floods in Brazilian state Rio Grande do Sul, heat wave in India, a new set of challenges from climate change in 2024.

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The Republican party (GOP) chances with Trump as the candidate in 2024 are seen with much skepticism by Karl Rove in the WSJ. Republicans need to keep the presidential field of candidates not too crowded for too long, as pluralities in primaries led to Trump winning a large share of delegates even with about one third of the vote in the early primaries for the 2020 election. Another challenge is the work of Trump supporting leaders in states such as Michigan who want to select delegates by convention and not through primaries. Ron de Santis, Governor of Florida, is seeking the Republican nomination, and faces a strong challenge from the former president. De Santis, 44 years, is from Dunedin, Florida, His mother was a nurse and his father installed Nielsen TV rating boxes, with great-great grandparents immigrating from Italy Benevento, Avellino) in 1904. He studied history at Yale and went to Harvard Law School, Navy Justice School after joining the Navy. De Santis was elected to the US Congress in 2014 and 2016 where he served as the chariman of the sub committee on National Security. He founded the Freedom Caucus in these years. In 2018 he ran for Governor of Florida winning by 0.4%, running again in 2022 he won by about 20 percentage points. ...

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The auto sector has an outsized effect on economic growth that is not easily grasped. The IMF sees a fifth of slowdown in growth of global gross domestic product and a third of world trade coming just from low demand for autos. The auto sector feeds into demand for steel, aluminium, copper, plastic and electronics, so it feeds into other sectors. Aging populations, stagnant incomes, ride sharing, and economic headwinds on trade for China, slower demand with lower economic activity in India from bad loans and low credit in the finance sector, all have cut into growth. Tariffs from president Trump and tit for tat tariffs increase costs and cut into profits. In Europe there is added factor of mandated drop in carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by 2021. The new technology will increase costs of autos by 800 to 5000 euros and add 5-11% to the selling price, reducing sales by about 5%.  A fast growing market is India but companies such as Ford and GM have moved out as it slows down. Higher emissions standards in India for 2020 are likely to increase prices in a very price sensitive market. Lower availability of credit in China and India have led to drop in sales of about 15% in both major markets for autos since mid 2018.   ...

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Saudis and Russia fail to reach an agreement on cutting production in response to lower demand after the coronavirus crisis, resulting in Saudi decision to boost output and cut prices.  Saudi prince Salman asks ministries to lower budgets for expenditures. Saudi oil production was boosted by 300,000 barrels a day (bbd) to 12.3 million bbd. Saudis also cut oil price which is at about $34 a barrel on March 9, 2020 for Brent crude. Meanwhile behind the rhetoric from Saudis a mediation effort is being made by Mr. Falih from the Saudi side with Mr. Novak of Russia. Mr. Falih is minister of investments. He was the oil minister who negotiated an agreement with Russia in 2016.  The U.S. under president Trump sees oil price reduction as good for the economy in the face of the coronavirus impact. The U.S. oil shale industry will be affected with more bankruptcies, as many companies cannot operate at $30 a barrel. The Saudi budget requires a price of $60 which is why the Saudis favored production cuts but failed to convince Russia. Russia sees no need for production cuts at this time. Russia is also better positioned to handle the oil price decline as its budget is less dependent on oil prices. ...

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This piece by Jonathan Martin in the NYT says some Republican party establishment donors and leaders now agree with Ted Cruz's assessment of the 2016 U.S. presidential election- the critical element will be rallying the Republican base to win in 2016. As Tom Hamburger points out in the Washington Post, Cruz is using technology to advantage in the campaign effort to rally evangelical base support, and working to build support from the ground up.

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The Indian prime minister reviewed progress of the vaccination drive. On July 26, in the last 6 days about 38 million doses of vaccine have been adminstered in India. In a separate affidavit to the Supreme Court the government laid out its plan for making enough vaccine supplies to vaccinate the entire population over 18 by December 31, 2021, over 940 million people requiring over 1880 million doses.  "Out of this requirement for 1880 million doses 516 million doses will be made available by July 31, 2021, in about 34 days. The remaining 1350 million doses for complete vaccination to the eligible population" says the government information provided to the Supreme Court. The breakdown of vaccine supplies manufacturing is also given to SC. Of the total of 1350 million vaccine doses the following is how it will be manufactured in India in the next 6 months. Covishield  vaccine     500 million Covaxin vaccine          400 million Bio E Subunit vaccine  300 million Zydus Cadila DNA vaccine  50 million Sputnik V  vaccine          100 million The government told the Supreme Court that the procurement of Bio E Subunit vaccine and Zydus Cadila DNA vaccine will be subject to approval that is expected in the near future. From this new vaccine supplies picture it is clear that Covaxin and Bio E Unit will play a major part in the second half of 2021 in vaccinating India's entire population with 2 doses. This would be a historic achievement for the federal government after the lessons learned and the action taken with a new vaccine supplies policy for India in June 2021. There is also the challenge to be overcome of maintaining the vaccination drive at 6-8 million doses a day which would be another historic achievement for the federal and state, and local governments in India working with community education and logistical setup, medical staff.  ...

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19 percent of China's exports went to the US in 2017, in 2024 this is 15%, but wait, the difference of 4 percent it is simply coming back to the US but through Southeast Asia. As a result some of the same issues that puzzled Trump negotiators exist today. China's exports surged 12.7% in October 2024 over the prior year. Biden was facing this situation and had yet to respond to the surge in exports to US. These exports were sent to Mexico and to Southeast Asia to circumvent the tariffs. It is the same situation revisited in 2024 with two other aspects of the Chinese economy-economic stimulus gets smaller and the housing and construction industry has imploded, the economy has slower growth. The overall price level in the US with a 60% tariff plus 10% for all countries would be 0.72 addition to the price level of 1.10 percent today- that is when including the depreciation of China's yuan by 10%. as it did last time. The result would be price level in the US at 1.82%, according to J.P. Morgan. Drag on China's GDP of the Trump tariffs in first term was 0.65% according to one investment bank GS, with 60% tariffs it would be 2%. Trump secured a return of $116 billion or 58% of the $200 billion China said it would buy of US exports. The other 42%- the deal was not completed in the end. ...