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Years of low prices for soybeans and corn with competition from Russia and Brazil, combined with tariff war with China roiling agricultural markets, are leading to the highest bankruptcies in a decade for farmers in the U.S. in 2019. Dairy farmers are hit too with low milk prices.

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Saudi Oil minister Ali Naimi increased his previous estimate for oil prices needed to balance the needs of producers and consumers. His new estimate is $90, up from the previous estimate of $80. This will give upward momentum to oil prices. The fall in the price of the dollar is affecting OPEC countries, including Libya, Algeria and Venezuela. These countries are looking for a price of $100.

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Fisher the lead director on the GM Board never wavers in his support for CEO Wagoner but his response to any criticisms has been to brush them off. Typical response to questions about GM's decissionmaking errors, was to say that this was obvious and that one cannot imagine GM making all the right decisions all of the time because it was too big and complex.

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Mass firings of government workers and closing of government offices created a sense of upheaval with the style of Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency. Musk says his disinterest in the workings of the government, and effort to do too much too quickly hurt his efforts, and the distraction has cost Tesla with loss of market and loss of loyalty of customers put off by DOGE style actions. Some actions were controversial such as asking federal government workers to list their 5 accomplishments each week or be fired, and are being withdrawn. Overall the media coverage created more miscomprehension for the president's goals and actions. President Trump has now distanced himself from Musk and Musk has withdrawn from the Washington scene. New reports suggest Tesla engineers now working for GM are building new EV battery technologies to drastically reduce the cost of EV's by 2028. One such report came out this week  shown in Lyrarc.com. Tesla imports its electric car batteries from China which could put it at a disadvantage in the current tariffs environment. German EV's market is collapsing in China so that Tesla faces many changes in just 6 months.  ...

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Attorney General nominee William Barr sayshe will not interfere with the Mueller Russia investigation, calling it "vitally important" that this investigation be completed. This happens as there is increased scrutiny of President Trump's interactions with Russia. This follows a report that the Federal Bureau of Investigation had opened a counter intelligence probe into Mr. Trump in 2017, as questions were raised about the abruptness of the firing of FBI Director Comey.  Mr. Barr defended a memo he had written critical of Mr. Mueller for his theory of obstruction of justice by Mr. Trump. He said he considers that a minor aspect of Special Counsel Mueller's probe. Barr says the memo did not question the special counsel's core investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. Mr. Barr was Attorney General under George H.W. Bush and would follow his earlier prioritizing of crime fighting and immigration policies. He needs some support from Democrats to be nominated, and to win this support he reiterated that "where judgements are to be made by me, I will make those judgements solely on the law."  ...

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Israel looks to the future imagining a future without Netanyahu as his rivals gain a big lead in the polls following the announcement of corruption charges against Netanyahu by the Attorney General. Benny Gantz the rival is heading a new party that brings together people in the middle of Israeli politics including Mr. Lapid. 

Gantz is focussing on pocketbook issues even though his credentials as former head of the armed forces makes him a suitable choice for Israelis concerned about security issues. He promises to end economic inequality, build new roads and affordable housing, overhaul the education system and end consumer price gouging. Gantz also brings to Israelis worried about Netanyau's politics of division something different- a sense of openness and a fresh start after the Netanyahu years.

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Tom Donilon, is national security advisor to President Obama. His experience includes working as chief of staff for Warren Christopher in the Clinton administration, and 8 years as an executive at Fannie Mae before being brought into the Obama circle by Rahm Emmanuel as deputy to national security advisor Gen. Jones. Robert Gates view was that Donilon would be "a disaster." His early experience as a political operative for the Carter campaign to his work for the 1988 Biden presidential campaign, and work at Fannie Mae as a business executive, suggests lack of experience in foreign affairs needed for this role. A focus on efficiency and being able to sync with Obama's thinking on foreign affairs may not be the qualities needed in this critical role.

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A talent that Peter Marks calls massive and lasting in the Washington Post, of Shakespeare's "Othello" with Laurence Olivier, all the way to Downton Abbey . Marks recalls all the roles, so much versatility, from "The Prime of Jean Brodie" about the Spanish Civil War, a teacher spouting admiration for fascism, a moral blindess that leads to death of "Mary Macgregor." And on to Tom Stoppard's "Day and Night." 

Peter Marks is no stranger to Maggie as he shows in his interview with her for the Washington Post and his taping machine not working. Maggie and Judie Dench making humor out of this saying the machine was exhausted.

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A drug store chain that invented the malt shake and had a store at every street corner in America from the 1900's Walgreens is taken private by Sycamore investment firm for $10 billion. At one time it was valued at $100 billion in 2017 and its stock hit new lows by 2024 hit by depressed margins for pharmacy drugs it reported lower earnings in 2024. In Jan 2025 the Department of Justice sued Walgreens for contributing to the opioid crisis in its dispensing of pills leading to its stock price dropping to $10 and its market value to $8.9 billion. Earlier Sycamore had taken Staples office supplies store chain private in 2017 for $6.7 billion.

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Carter's work for Habitat for Humanity continued right up to 2019, five years before his death at 100 years. This report shows a picture of Carter and wife Rosalynn after he had 14 stitches from a fall at his home, still back to a Habitat for Humanity site in Nashville in 2019,  at 95 years of age. It shows Carter at sites in New York City in 1984, and the couple doing wood work at a site in 1992.

In addition to eradication of Guinea worm and other parasitic diseases in Africa Jimmy Carter lived a life right out of the Biblical teachings that he delivered at Sunday School at a local church in Georgia.

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Matt Bai's interview with Mario Cuomo, former governor of New York. The conversation covers different topics: Mario Cuomo's speeches, the affinity and the dissonance with his son Andrew Cuomo's idea of liberalism and his own, about the kind of triangulation practiced by Clinton and Obama, and his sense of being a liberal in the old fashioned way. The talk goes to a speech Mario made about helping the poor without crushing the middle class and the sense today that the task ahead is about helping the middle class without crushing the poor. Mario mentions a conversation with Bill Clinton about an offer to join the Supreme Court. Mario said he told Clinton he would not be able to debate and talk freely about his views if he accepted that position. Considering Mario Cuomo's speeches this is sincere. He is torn between the struggles experienced by his father and others of the most ordinary working men and women of the period between the wars, the idea that there had to be a better way, and the difficulties of making that better way work in the real world in the postwar period. There is a sense that one has been forgotten or is now out of place- the dissonance with the times- when a serious contribution was made at one time and place that will always be there. One generation taking over from the last, adapting in its own way, the values timeless....

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Li Keqiang, China's new premier, entered Peking University in 1978 by excelling in merit exams. Li and a fellow student, Yang Baikui, translated the English book "The Due Process of Law" by British jurist Lord Denning. Professor Gong Xiangrui, brought the book to China and educated his students in the ideas of constitutional law and western liberalism. Yang says Li learned English on his own and meticulously carried a stack of notecards with English on one side and Chinese translation on the other. Li would study the cards while waiting for a bus or in the line at the school cafeteria. Li has political discusions with students from that time, some of whom joined the pro-democracy demonstrations of 1989. He is the son of a mid level county official from Anhui province and moved in the party ranks through diligent effort. Li's doctoral thesis is in economcs and he is expected to focus on economic changes, with Xi Jinping, the new president, taking the lead in making changes to the political system. Fellow students from Li's days at Peking University say the difference between them and Li is the pace of democratization, with Li looking at it as a longer process. Recent articles by Li Keqiang on economic change show his emphasis on urbanization as a way to improve agricultural conditions with a smaller number of farmers improving producitvity in agriculture, and the importance of creating a better social safety net for people in China....

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This report in the WSJ provides details on the groundwork that was laid by the Trump administration as it worked to find a solution to the problems facing Venezuela with refugees and economic crisis, and months of protests. The plans were set in the days before Nicholas Maduro took office for the second term as president. The night before Juan Guaido, head of the National Assembly, declared himself president, U.S. vice president Mike Pence stated that the U.S. would support him if he took the reins of government from Maduro by invoking a clause in the Venezuelan Constitution that makes the head of the National Assembly take the office of president if the existing president is declared illegitimate taking office unlawfully. About 60 nations did not recognize the elections that gave Maduro a second term. On Jan 2 Mr Trump who feels deeply about the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and rising poverty, the suffering of the Venezuelan people, met with presidents of Brazil and Colombia. Colombian president Ivan Duque and Trump hinted at a plan to cooperate to help people fleeing Venezuela and respecting its democratic heritage. Mr Pompeo spoke to allies of the U.S. The National Assembly laid out its plans on Jan 15, for using a constitutional mechanism that allows the head of the Assembly to lead an interim government till new elections are held if the existing president is declared illegitimate. A leading Republican senator of Cuban origin Mr. Rubio supported the move. On the eve of protests in Venezuela Rubio and two other senators from Florida met Mr. Trump and Pence at the White House. Also present were Bolton, Pompeo, Ross and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Mr. Trump then decided to do it. He placed a call to Mr. Guiado  to tell him that if the National Assembly invoked Article 233 the U.S. president would back him.  The U.S. believes the rank and file in the military are with the opposition even though its leaders back Maduro. After the U.S. action, the governments of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia, backed the move for an interim government. The European Union called for free and credible elections. Russia and Mexico supported Maduro.  The State Department instructed the U.S. Federal Reserve about Guiado government as the sole representative for Venezuelan assets in banks. Sanctions could be placed on Venezuelan oil exports as backup efforts proceed to support the interim government. ...

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The Economist points to a second hit from bad debt in the post 2008 stimulus binge of spending in China. This is after an earlier hit, that was absorbed as a result of high growth rates and high savings. About $420 billion was injected into 5 state owned banks since 1998, according to one estimate, as a result of the first hit to China's banks from bad debt. In this second round of bad debt, covered in more detail by David Barboza in the New York Times, and merely alluded to here, many bad loans to infrastructure projects were rushed through by local governments. The Economist considers this one of the successes of the state directed banking system, that loans were quickly made and projects started in the post 2008 crisis period; and expresses the view that this hit will be absorbed just like the last hit. However the more detailed account by David Barboza and in Business Week, points to the working of a system of incentives gone astray in a capitalist system without the necessary controls or regulation. Local governments used investment companies to take on loans, which were then used to prepare properties to be auctioned off at a profit and speculative prices to state owned companies in different industrial sectors. This is part of rampant speculation in China in real estate markets. Can China with its high savings and growth absorb a second hit? This depends on the magnitude of the hit and the size of the bad debt, which depends on how long this speculative market continues to operate, and how bad debt is hidden in the books. The difference this time is that large state owned companies in different industrial sectors are engaged in this speculation. The other difference is that the high growth rates in China depend on continued large trade deficits with the USA and Western Europe, something which is not likely to continue for long, as consumers in Europe and the USA with high debt are becoming cautious spenders. This suggests that China, like the US with the mortgage crisis, faces the same effects of unregulated or uncontrolled speculative behaviours, that can endanger the banking system....

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Protests in 5 of Turkey's largest cities with mayors from the CHP party, Istanbul, Ankara, Bursa, Izmir following the arrest of Imamoglu, Mayor of Istanbul, just before he was being nominated by his party to run against Erdogan for president of Turkey in 2028. Ekrem Imamoglu was elected mayor of Istanbul in 2019, with 54% of the vote in a recount when Erdogan had been in power for 16 years starting in 2003. Erdogan also started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul. Erdogan became popular following mismanagement of the economy by the administration of the time. He increased growth with foreign investment in his first ten years. His popularity began to wane with tendencies for authoritarian rule. Without a strong candidate from the opposition Erdogan was elected again in 2020 with 52% of the vote. In 2024 Ekrem Imamoglu was relected a second time as Mayor of Istanbul.  In 2025 Turkey is a changed country- with countries around it Ukraine, Russia, Middle East, and the US, very different from the 2000 turn of the century period. CHP party in power in the cities is now in a position to run the country after two decades in the Opposition. As a result there is a shift in mood in the country seeking new leadership and the AKK party of Erdogan now faces a serious challenge from the Opposition CHP and Imamoglu. ...

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In this report November 29, 2019 Jeanna Smialek in the NYT raises the cautionary flag on the Randy Quarles  period as Fed's vice chair of supervision. The Fed and FDIC report issued April 29th 2023, puts the fault for the lax supervision of Silicon Valley Bank on the culture that sees the less regulation the better.  Smialek shows the meetings Randy Quarles had including with a former employer Davis Polk Wardwell- Republican Senators 29, Democratic Senators 17  Davis Polk  law firm 22,                     Daniel Tarullo his predecessor 0 Goldman Sachs 24, JP Morgan Chase 22                   Daniel Tarullo his predecessor had this to say about Quarles role at Fed- It is he said "A kind of low intensity deregulation, consisting of an accumulation of non-headline grabbing changes and an opaque relaxation of regulatory vigor." To which Quarles reply is- "The argument that it is a drip-by-drip erosion: the quantification of that, they can't really demonstrate any quantifiable reduction in the overall resilience of the industry." The Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank crisis could have damaged the US banking system, and the capacity of the US to make the huge needed investments in the country, without the strong action of the Biden administration. It showed the very erosion of banking supervision that Smialek pointed out in the NYT in 2019. The costs of a weakening of the banking system and the US capacity to invest in the country are borne by the American people, by workers and families in the US. Which is why the Biden administration acted quickly and decisively to limit the ripples from this crisis.       ...

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Is the jobless rate in Liverpool, in the one time industrial heartland of Britain about 6% or counting the hidden jobless close to 13%. Is the unemployment rate much higher than the 3% in official statistics for Britain because official statistics do not include the hidden jobless. Learn more about this astonishing quirk in the statistics that distorts reality about social conditions. None less than the OECD, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development and the Center for cities thinkt tank is of the view that 3 million people are missing from the official jobless figures. The OECD report says that when these 3 million people are counted the UK's unemployment or jobless rate is about 13.2% or abut 4.3 million people. This report shows that the austerity policies of the last ten years in Britain have bit by bit hurt people's chances of finding work.  The OECD/Centre for Cities study shows something else that is striking- it says Liverpool has the highest rate of hidden jobless in its study, with about 20% of working age adults out of work compared to an official rate of 5.8%. The mayor of the Liverpool region, Steve Rotheram, sitting in his office overlooking the Albert Dock on the banks of the Mersey river, where Britain's mighty shipbuilding industry once dominated and now in decay, says sanctioning people does not work,  a decade of cuts have done damage, and that his authority runs Households into Work, in an attempt to treat people as human beings first to get a better response. The government job centres tend to focus on people 25-35, says food bank and job support charity at the Anglican Cathedral on a ridge overlooking the Mersey. That means a lot of people in their forties and fifties are left out. ...

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A hard fought election in Brazil between Mr. Bolsanaro and an ex-president Lula da Silva. Voting is compulsory in Brazil for all those who are literate and between age of 18 and 70 years. There are 156 million registered voters. President and members of Chamber of Deputies are elected for a four year term. Elections also take place for 27 governors for 26 states and one federal district. If no candidate in elections for president or governors gets 50% of the vote the vote heads to a runoff on October 30 between the top two candidates. Bolsanaro is supported by evangelical Christians in a Catholic country, rural landowners, and business people. He was a deputy or member of parliament for the state of Rio de Janeiro for 27 years, who won on a law and order and anti-corruption platform in 2018. Lula da Silva is a former trade union leader who was president from 2003 to 2010. He was popular during a commodity boom in Brazil's soyabean and iron ore export boom to China that financed social support programs. A corruption scandal affected his successor from the Worker's Party leading to the change in government after the collapse of the commodities boom. After he was given a jail sentence under the Bolsanaro government he was released by the Supreme court decision in 2019 that declared there was a lack of due process in his conviction. Mr. Bolsanaro also as a program to benefit poor families that is called Auxilio Brazil to replacve Lula's Bolsa Familia. Payments to 18 million recipients were increased in August and a monthly stipend was added for taxi and truck drivers by Bolsanaro. The competing interests and the pandemic with the high toll of around 685,000 deaths have created a highly contested election. ...

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Judge Engoron of the New York State Supreme Court is the rarest of judges in his style, demeanor and use of everyday expressions. He was a cabdriver and a music teacher and more like everyday people in America.  NYT shows the 92 page legal decision in which Judge Engoron sets a fine of $355 million in the civil fraud trial of Donald Trump. Engoron cites a poet and uses rare language in his everyman style, saying: "The English poet Alexander Pope (1688-1744) first declared, “To err is human, to forgive is divine.” Defendants apparently are of a different mind. After some four years of investigation and litigation, the only error (“inadvertent,” of course) that they acknowledge is the tripling of the size of the Trump Tower Penthouse, which cannot be gainsaid. Their complete lack of contrition and remorse borders on pathological. They are accused only of inflating asset values to make more money. The documents prove this over and over again. This is a venial sin, not a mortal sin. Defendants did not commit murder or arson. They did not rob a bank at gunpoint. Donald Trump is not Bernard Madoff. Yet, defendants are incapable of admitting the error of their ways. Instead, they adopt a “See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” posture that the evidence belies." And calling it "this is not the defendent's first rodeo"- "In considering the need for ongoing injunctive relief, this court is mindful that this action is not the first time the Trump Organization or its related entities has been found to have engaged in corporate malfeasance. Of course, the more evidence there is of defendants’ ongoing propensity to engage in fraud, the more need there is for the court to impose stricter injunctive relief. This is not defendants’ first rodeo."     ...

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PM Modi will meditate for 3 days and nights at the Vivekananda rock in the Indian Ocean on May 30 to June 1, 2024. In 1892 Swami Vivekananda meditated on a rock in the ocean at the tip of India in Kanya Kumari, as he set India on a path to modernization for the next 100 years and beyond. Many Indians including prime minister Modi have Vivekananda's mission for India's modernization as their clear objective, and this is behind the everything the PM does including the vision of Vikshit Bharat, a developed country by 2047 on the 100th anniversary of independence. Gandhiji read all of Vivekananda's writings and his freedom struggle against British rule was based on Vivekananda's ideas for India's regeneration and renewal leading to his book Hind Swaraj in 1905. The Bhagavad Gita was translated by Swami Swarupananda, a disciple of Vivekananda, and formed the basis for Gandhiji in the freedom struggle against the British.  Europe faced colonization on the Iberian peninsula and invasions right up to Budapest and Vienna by the 14th century, India faced the same and this was followed for India and China by the expansion of the British into Asia when China and India failed to grasp early the importance of science and technology and the new ideas that happened in Europe by the 18th and 19th century. Vivekananda wanted to see science and technology and the advances of modernization brought to the people of India a process happening as India modernizes all aspects of its economy. Vivekananda was also the inspiration for Indonesia's freedom struggle by Sukarno against Dutch rule. India and Indonesia today make up the largest population in the world larger than China and Japan combined, with a common culture and heritage and are together modernizing every aspect of the life of people.  ...

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This report in WSJ by Thomas, Hughes and Wise says despite the concerns about Biden he is tied with Trump at 46% in a recent Ipsos Wash Post survey of voters. Lyrarc.com's Analysis of readers comments of WSJ, NYT and Wash Post reports on Biden for the last week show that most readers support Biden and see the media overreaching and lacking balance and good judgement in reporting. This report also shows 42% of Democrats support Biden continuing his candidacy. There is clearly misinformation with 4 specific examples of gross distortion of images of the president spread online, cited in reports. A true grass roots assessment would show a large majority of Democrats support the president once the dust has cleared. Lyrarc's assessment of the President at the NATO press conference Q and A gives the president a 9 out of 10 for the sharpness and ability to handle a huge number of details and complex policy issues, and for his delivery and viewer comprehension. Biden explained complex issues in simple plain English which also stands out. On the same day India's Modi said he was glad to be welcomed by Australia when he was in Vienna, Austria, with its chancellor, correcting it immediately. No one mentioned it even though it happened twice for Modi. Media made it their headline for Biden for similar mixing up and immediate correction. Going over complex issues for 60 minutes with 9 reporters in A+ fashion- no mention at all by the Media. In Movement for Global Literacy we cited the low degree of confidence and trust in media- only 20% of the American people trust the media such as the TV news shows and the newspapers. To know the true picture go directly to the grassroots and find out in every part of the Union. Lincoln,TR, FSR and Truman all in their own way faced the twisted rhetoric of politicians and the media in their time, yet retained the confidence of Ameica. ...

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Gasoline pries hit $5.00 a gallon in California in October 2012.

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John Havens who was cofounder with Vikram Pandit of Old Lane which Citigroup acquired to bring Vikram Pandit to Citigroup, has spent 20 years working side by side with Pandit going back to his Morgan Stanley days. Now Pandit has made him head of the investment banking and alternative investments group at Citigroup.

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Spain's prime minister Pedro Sanchez calls a snap election in Spain after the defeat of his minority government in a parliamentary budget vote. The Catalan party withdrew support leading to the collapse of the government. Twelve Catalan leaders are on trial in Madrid for arranging an independence referendum.

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In his foreign policy address following the northeast state primaries Donald Trump outlines a policy with less foreign engagement in trouble spots, and greater reliance on partners in Europe and Asia contributing to joint defense. It also includes building up the military and nuclear arsenal. It criticizes the Bush administration for intervention in Iraq that benefitted Iran, and the Obama administration for policies that led to the rise of Islamic State. Because Trump is not for supporting foreign engagements in trouble spots the difference in Trump's policies is not announcing or signalling in advance what U.S. response would be, instead keeping it unpredictable. It is not clear how much this would work given that any president would inherit the situation before him, and also the complexity of the situation would not change, such as the need to have Iranian cooperation and Saudi cooperation to tackle Islamic State. The Bush administration started with a similiar intention to focus on domestic policy, till the 9/11 surprise attack steered it away towards nationbuilding overseas. The pendulum swung in the latter years of the Bush adminstration to the Iraq intervention, Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, followed by a swing in the other direction to allowing Libya and Syria disntegrate leading to millions of refugees. Complexity, surprises, and swings of popular opinion, are unlikely to go away, even as caution is exercized and military capabilities enhanced....