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BP's plans to sell its 50% stake in the Russian joint venture TNK-BP. The stake would be worth about $30 billion, according to analysts. BP says it has discussed this with potential buyers. BP's shares were up by 3% in London because this is seen as a good move for BP. The amount could be better invested in other opportunities considering the difficulties BP has experienced working with its partners in Russia .

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The lack of enough monsoon rains in acountry that depends for 60% of water in agriculture from rain-fed water and only 40% on irrigation is profound. The impact is uneven- in the south rain shortfall was 7%, in the northwest 36%, in the central part 19%. India has 52 million tons of wheat and rice - enough for one year. The monsoon impacts 600 million people depending on agriculture in rural areas.

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US president DJT outspoken in "The Conversation," with Dasha Burns in The Politico magazine about dangers of "civilizational erasure" for the Europe that people knew in the past as its population changes with uncontrolled migration of the past two decades. DJT comments on a wide range of topics centering on the migration that has changed the life and politics of Europe by 2025 and what the future holds for Europe if it does not preserve it's own identity handed down for generations. Dasha Burns starts with Ukraine- the reports say DJT said this or that about Ukraine but look at the question she put to DJT- Which country is in the stronger negotiating position? Most people know the answer in the winter of 2025 is that Russia is in a much much stronger position in 2025 and a big part of this is it's size 40 million people in Ukraine to 120 million in Russia and oil revenues. Then Burns asks if it is Zelensky who is responsible for the stalled progress what's going on here, all the time giving DJT something that he might take up that would make a headline grabbing interview. She prompts DJT with the starter phrases and pausing for DJT to pick up on it- If Zelensky rejects this deal, do you think Ukraine has lost this war, and the consensus in Europe is to keep supporting Ukraine until they can win this war. And DJT does no more than what he has said many many times about the difficult situation Ukraine is in. Asked if the US may walk away from supporting Ukraine as Trump Jr. has said, and DJT says- "No it isn't correct. But it's not exactly wrong" because they have to play ball. And that is exactly what the European states UK, France, Germany, Italy, have done as they keep talking and modify the original plan devised by Russia and the US. What this says is that the European states are not trying to win this war and at the same time not willing to let this war be lost and the principle of invading another country be seen as acceptable. This is where there are limits to DJT's diplomacy as he attributes the problem to the hatred between the leaders of the two countries. DJT does not say Zelensky would lose the election if one were held in 2026 as he calls for elections.   ...

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says this is not chaos in tariff policy because you don't change 70 years of policy overnight. He says China's is highest because it has the highest trade deficit, then EU, Japan, South Korea at 15% because of the smaller deficits with these nations, Vietnam because it is used  by China to send products to the US, India because of geopolitical reasons buying Russian oil. See Dasha Burns, Politico White House Bureau Chief's  interview with USTR Jamieson Greer.  He says about India- Jamieson USTR calls India "an outlier" and says "I'm confident we will get a deal with India in the near future." India he says has largely corrected its imports of Russian oil and negotiations are underway for a deal.  ON USMCA Greer says of the $31 trillion in trade with Canada and Mexico $29 trillion is us right. trade between Canda and Mexico is small. So he says it makes sense to negotiate separately with Canada and separately with Mexico. This suggests that there doesnt need to be a USMCA- separate deals are just fine says Greer. Mexico has gained much in automobiles under USMCA- US wants to make more in the US including auto parts which it can do by negotiating this with Mexico. It does not make a ton of economic sense to marry the three economies together, says Greer, as the import export profiles, lab,or situations are all different. Are Tariffs good for the economy and do they lead to higher prices? Greer says inflation was down in the first DJT term in trade with China and tariffs. Greer says there is never a 1 to 1 with tariffs. It tariffs become a kind of leveage in getting agreements. That is the style of these tariffs. You tell Ecuador or Brazil we don't make these here so there will be no tariffs on bananas and on coffee. Says Greer- we have seen inflation in check, imported goods relatively low priced. We have seen that we can have growth and higher wages with tariffs at the same time. The growth in 2025 third quarter at 3.8% annual growth, and Atlanta Fed predicting 4.2% growth in 2026. And tariff money can be used for paying down the debt and financing America's reindustrialization, Greer says members of Congress are asking about this.When a new administration comes tariffs will still be part of the playbook. ...

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This title is a classic example of how to lie with statistics. Specifically the idea of 50% increase. 99 Irish citizens deported in 2025, a 50% jump over 2024, when one hundred thousand Irish citizens live in the US. The title could have read one tenth of one percent of Irish citizens living in the US were deported in 2025. Kennedy, Biden, Reagan were Irish in origins, most Irish are law abiding citizens, most are integrated into American society. The law applies equally to all- it only goes to show that the law applies to the Irish also and that it is fairly implemented consistent with US Supreme Court decisions supporting Congress and the Executive when it comes to immigration to the US, Latin Americans and Irish alike are treated equally under the law.

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Republicans representing poorer rural and working class communities, Democrats wealthy suburban communities 2025. 26 to 56 vs 69 what this means is that Republicans who in 2009 represented 26 of the poorest 100 House of Representatives Districts now represent 56 in 2023. By Contrast Democrats in 2023 represent 69 of the wealthiest House Districts in the Nation. It is a complete reverse, as big as the change that took place under FDR/Truman and LBJ where the South gradually shifted to Democratic from Republican and the North and Northeast Unites States  moved from Republican to Democratic party.

This puts Republicans traditional position to cut Medicaid in a quandary as it may affect their control of the House in future elections. This report in WSJ looks at details by District of what could happen.

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Greece's GDP will decline by 10% and unemployment go up from 16% to 26%, according to the IMF. Yet Greece is coming out of the crisis better having acted early in mid March 26 days after the first case on Feb 26 to impose a lockdown. The country had Day 50 with 2,192 cases and 102 deaths. Greece will reopen gradually on May 4.

Greece's long economic crisis actually helped as people realizing the weak condition of the public health system after cuts in spending, were keen on cooperating with government action. Some family members are elderly in every family and this also played a part with Greek culture placing importance on protecting the older members of society.

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Regional rivals in each of China's 31 provinces make it difficult for foreign retailers, such as Tesco, Carrefour, Metro AG, Home Depot, to scale up and increase market share. Metro AG says it will pull out of China after testing electronics stores for 2 years. After years of losses Home Depot shut down its 7 large stores in China in 2012. Profit margins can be as low as 2%, making it unprofitable without the scale needed. Tesco's market share in China declined to 2.4% of China megastore sales in 2012 from 2.9% in 2008, and Carrefour sales declined to 6.9% from 8.6% in the same period, according to Euromonitor. Tesco now plans to partner with China Resources Holdings to merge its stores with the larger domestic Chinese chain's 4100 stores under 10 retail brands, with Tesco holding 20% of the joint venture. The CR Vanguard brand of China Resources 3000 stores would be merged wih Tesco's 131 stores.

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Alex Frangos says mainland shares are still trading at a premium. He cites the Hang Seng A-H Share Premium Index, that shows the difference for shares in the freely trading Hong Kong market with the less freely trading mainland China market- the mainland shares trade in Jan 2016 at a premium of 38%, when the five year average premium is 8%. He cites other figures to show that Beijing policymakers face a difficult task to keep stock prices from reaching a natural valuation.

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In June 2012 India's Food Minister K.V. Thomas agreed that 13% of India's 50.2 millon of wheat grains from a record crop were under makeshift shelters which could be damaged by the monsoon rains. Another complicating factor is that a law from the 1980's intended to protect workers in the jute industry requires all packaging of foodgrains for storage to use jute bags. Since 1990 jute products have increased by about 30% compared to an increase of 82% for the wheat crop, as a result there is a severe shortage of jute bags to store foodgrains in states like Madhya Pradesh.

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India faces tariff of 25% with policies of reliance on Russia for arms and oil,  Mexico Canada and South Korea face higher tariffs August 1 2025 as they are holdouts now that UK, Japan, EU, Indonesia, Vietnam have agreements with the US on trade.

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What it takes to put a CDU/SPD coalition government in Germany- 16 working groups, 250 negotiators, 10 work days. And that is only the first step. It then goes to party leaders talking with their working groups. Taxes and migration policy are 2 key hurdles. Lars Kingbeil on the Social Democrat side, Carsten Linnemann on the Christian Democrat side with to be chancellor Merz. Both sides say some friction, dissent is normal after an election in which the CDU barely crossed 29% and the SPD made it only to 16% of the vote. Both sides see each other as indispensable. CDU feels SPD is sticking to its positions. Migration- SPD's Carl Stegner says- "The SPD will not engage in a contest to treat as badly as possible those who have come to Germany and have done nothing wrong." The CDU wants to give only "bed, bread and soap," to rejected asylum seekers. It sees its promises in the election as real when it made clear statements to stop migration and cut benefits, with its credibility at stake. CDU also believes that like DJT in the USA this tough policy is certain to make such migration unattractive. The other difference is on Taxes- the SPD wants to see higher taxes on the well off. ...

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Norway has stepped up to meet Europe's need for oil and gas. About one third of the gas consumed in Europe comes from Norway. After the war started Norway increased gas exports by 8% in 0223 shipping more of it by undersea pipelines to Northern Europe. This increased oil and gas exports from $25 billion in 2021 to $125 billion in 2022. Like Saudi Arabia the government owns not only the oil and gas fields but also has large stakes in the companies that extract oil and gas. For a small country bordering Russia with 5.5 million people this put it in a higher status to meet Europe's plea for energy so that it could heat homes and would not have to shut down some of its industrial capacity. And it left no stone unturned to do this. Petoro CEO Kristin Kragseth says that we knew that Norway was always important but we did'nt realize how much. Petoro made $50 billion in 2022 almost three times what it made in 2021. Another of Norway's oil companies Equinor made $75 billion in adjusted earnings in 2022. Political sentiment has shifted too so that climate change that was a priority still is but Norway is willing to increase production for a few years to meet needs of Europe.     ...

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This article in The Times says UK business has already moved to ESG, the idea that business is also about environment, social and governance, ahead of Thatcherite era cabinet ministers Rishi Sunak, Priti Patel, Liz Truss and Dominic Raab. This was evident during the Tory conference in Manchester.  Boris Johnson is moving in line with voters and ahead of his ministers who are aware of the changes in the conservatives appeal to voters. Johnson is not attached to any preconceived idea of what the Tories are about. His only concern is to be where voters are and think like the voters, this is where he is happy being. Voters in Britain today think business is more than being about profits. New polling by the Social Market Foundation shows changing attitudes in the Conservative party and its supporters. In 2016 48% of Conservative voters thought it was important to remove regulations and rules for business. In 2021 this has fallen to 27%. Today economic fairness is a big concern. Inequality was a concern for 15% of Tory voters, today it is 28%, higher than Tories concern about removing regulations. Business leaders have also moved on after the Brexit referendum and see the need for meeting a social purpose. Some business leaders think the Thatcherite thinking of some cabinet ministers is "decades out of date." ...

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The drop in the value of the Turkish currency, the lira, hits ordinary Turks as it pushes up the price of food, medicine and other essentials. The lira has dropped by over a third of its value against the dollar in 2021. This is leading to a decline in living standards in Turkey, says this report in WSJ. President Erdogan is pushing an unconventional strategy to increase growth, by having the central bank cut interest rates as the value of lira drops sharply. This could lead to further drops in the lira making it difficult to make dollar debt repayments says this report in WSJ. The problem extends beyond drop in standard of living for average Turks. The country's banks are affected and companies that have borrowed heavily in US dollars and foreign currency denominated debt. A large mismatch between foreign currency debt such as dollar debt and the country's foreign exchange reserves has led to countries such as Argentina falling behind and seeking IMF assistance. WSJ points out that Turkey has about $160 billion in foreign exchange assets, and $280 billion in liabilities as of August 2021, according to the Turkish central bank. Bank lending in foreign currency is 24% to 45% of their total loans in the first half of 2021, according to Fitch Ratings. This could lead to dollar debt rollover difficulties as debt repayment comes due in April 2021. ...

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The protests in Chile that started with a subway fare increase and then into protest against inadequate pensions, poor health care and schools, have turned into violent protests with extensive damage. Damage to supermarkets, stores and other businesses is estimated at billions of dollars. Damage to the modern Metro is about $370 million dollars. The economy will grow at 1% this year after growth of 4% in 2018.  The government plans a $5.5 billion stimulus, and the central bank could sell $20 billion including a quarter of its reserves to support the peso currency.  The government of president Pinera has only a 13% approval rating. A December poll by COES Santiago think tank shows 65% of Chileans support continuation of protests, and found that 89% of Chileans planned to back a new constitution. The old constitution was designed in a way that led to poor support for retirement and inadequate pensions. It also led to increased inequality in this country of 18 million. This constitution was drafted during the Pinochet dictatorship  and has now lost its legitimacy along with the rest of the political leaders. A referendum will be held in April 2020 for a new constitution.  The copper mines that support Chilean copper exports are intact and the country has low debt, which should help Chile invest in a recovery with the stimulus. ...

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After a sudden surge in the beginning of May the coronavirus wave in India, its second wave, is decreasing. It is 186,000 new coronavirus cases on May 27, down from over 350,000 at the peak. In India's largest state Uttar Pradesh with a population of 210 million the coronavirus cases have dropped sharply to 4000 a day. New coronavirus cases in Delhi and Bombay are around 1000 a day. The Indian government has moved quickly to tackle this wave with decisive action to meet the sudden surge in May 2021. For the rest of 2021 and into 2022 the most important action by the Indian government has been to create a government sponsored effort of India's entire pharmaceutical company sector to reunite in production of over 2 billion vaccine doses by December 2021. After independence in 1947 one of the steps taken by India with great foresight was to create a strong pharmaceutical sector with fair and transparent pricing of basic drugs and vaccines. Something that does not exist in this manner and scale anywhere else in the world. Today this is giving India a tremendous asset in the fight against coronavirus. India is already the largest producer of vaccines in the world, the new effort will make give it a decisive advantage in meeting not only India's but the world's need for new vaccines. ...

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The need for earth friendly diets is shown in this editorial in The Guardian. Animal based products account for 57% of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 29% for food from plants. An outsize meat and dairy industry accounts for about 15% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions according to UN message in 2021. Mr. Dimpleby is Britain's food minister. He says a 30% reduction in meat eating would make it possible to have sustainable land use in Britain. The Guardian says high income countries are eating double the meat, poultry and fish products that they should be eating for living within the planetary sustainable living boundaries- that is to have no net environmental damage. Go back to the periods before 1600 and European, American, high income countries consumption of animal based foods was a fraction of what it is today.  A new legal regime is seen as a fair, just and sustainable living oriented solution. The Netherlands is doing just this to reduce the size of its large animal and dairy industry as a step towards more sustainable living and planet. It is not easy to convince farmers yet the public supports such a move. With the fires, floods and drought in Europe there is increasing awareness that action needs to be taken even where it is difficult.  ...

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India's GST tax collections - which finance infrastructure -reach the 1.40 lakh crore mark  (about $20 billion) for 3 months in a row in 2022. Increase in tax compliance culture, audit analytics, and actions against tax evaders, helped increase GST revenue collections. Revenues from import of goods and revenues from domestic transactions were 44% higher than the same month in the prior year. The increased economic activity and creating tax compliance culture are good indicators for economic growth in addition to the GDP numbers showing about 8% growth in 2021, the highest in the world surpassing China by a wide margin.  The growth slowed to about 4% increase in GDP in the 1st quarter yet the events of the first quarter such as the war in Ukraine increasing food and oil prices, depressing economic activity, have some other indicators unique to India that are entirely positive and hold promise for a surge in economic growth in this decade to 2030. With the pandemic years 2020-2021 pointing to shift in supply chains of US and Germany away from China towards India and other Asian nations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support of China will only make this shift move faster. At a time when Indian logistics and infrastructure improvements under the PM's Gati Shakti Master Plan will create the right conditions for massive foreign investment in the Indian economy. ...

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Uber built up about $30 billion in operating losses and burnt up huge amounts of capital with its access to capital from from financial markets in the US, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. 2023 is the first year for profits of $1.43 billon of which the larger part of it $1 billion is from equity investments. It went public in 2019. Lyft a competitor of Uber has not yet turned a profit. Contrary to the general impression these kinds of startups have burnt enormous amounts of capital, and diverted capital from essential needs such as education, healthcare services, and public transportation. Consider the case of lack of investment in the New York subway system that lags so far behind that in other cities such as Tokyo to make it incomprehensible. The New York Port Bus Terminal  needed to be replaced- the planning took 10 years and the new terminal building will not be completed till 2032. Essential investments that improve the lives of millions of people in our cities are neglected or delayed. The real crowding out of capital from essential public needs is a feature of the Reagan era economics that have created many of the problems we face today of underfunding where it really counts. The capital allocation system is distorted so that capital does not generate proper returns or benefit the largest part of the population. ...

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On the idea that America is losing faith when it is losing churchgoing people it should be said that during the Second Awakening in the 1850's America was struggling against the sin of slavery. The country and Evangelicals rallied around Lincoln who had an unconventional idea of Christian beliefs coming directly from reading the bible not churchgoing.   Lincoln was denied the Whig nomination for Congress in 1843 and faced Evangelical opposition in the 1846 Congressional election which he won against an evangelist Cartwright, because of his unconventional views on Christianity coming from reading the Bible. The Lincoln Association of Springfield reports that during the dark days of 1862 Miner tells Lincoln that Christians are praying for you as they have never prayed before, and Lincoln replies "If I were not sustained by the prayers of God's people I could not endure this constant pressure. I would give up hoping for success."   Americans are less church going today than at previous times in history about 40 million Americans have stopped going to church in the last 25 years. This is evident among Presbyterians, Episcopalians, and Southern Baptists. White and Black congregations are affected in the same way, though less for Hispanics. Pew reports 63% of people in America identify as Christians, down from 78% in 2007.  ...

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The FDA has handled the importation of masks from China badly says this report in WSJ. During the shortage FDA let 3500 Chinese manufacturers selling products of wide variations in quality to send masks to the U.S. Millions of these N95 masks are now available imported from China but their reliability is uncertain. The FDA even has the same manufacturers on approved and revoked approval lists creating more confusion. The FDA gave then revoked approval for products that failed quality standards.  The WSJ found that some of the companies given approval early were just weeks old and had not completed quality review by FDA. The WSJ reports that more than 60% of foreign made masks nearly all Chinese made failed basic U.S. government quality tests that reviewed 22 brands according to regulatory data. About one fifths of the makers were just weeks old and others made claims that were simply not correct. The FDA acted in a crisis situation so bad actors could take advantage of the situation say experts.  What happens now. The states of California,Washington and Texas are now checking their supplies of N95 masks to see if all the makers are on authorized lists and not revoked. Many doctors and hospitals are going through much anxiety because of the safety of their N95 masks in close contact situations in eyecare, dental care and other care, is now uncertain. ...

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Lyrarc Retrospect shows here RFK Robert Kennedy visiting homes sometimes mere shacks in the mountains where disease was rampant, education negligible, and income $60 for large families, shown here in this Washington Post report by  Paul Schwartzman, Feb 21, 2018  After J.D. Vance selection for VP and his book on growing up in Ohio's Appalachian mountain region which covers states of New York, Pennsyslvania, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, stretching from southern New York to northern Mississippi down the entire eastern part of the US, the question arises did the poverty in this region exist before? The answer is yes and two presidents JFK and LBJ, both Democrats setup the Appalachian Regional Commission to tackle rural poverty in the mountainous regions in 1960's. Its success- increased income by 4% faster than other neighboring counties in retrospect does not look like much. Rural poverty increased since 2000 as the national attention was taken up by the Bush wars and by a general neglect of rural areas under Bush and Obama. Iowa governor, now Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is given the task of addressing rural poverty and a top position in the Biden Administration. Fast internet, housing, income assistance, highway development, child education support, on multiple fronts Biden is fighting the poverty that RFK once saw with his won eyes in 1968 in eastern Kentucky and which stretches across 7 states.  ...

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Rosa Chang, immigrant from South Korea, is pursuing her dream of green park space in the middle of Brooklyn's densely packed and traffic filled areas. She is unrelenting giving it her all for over ten years, and keeps this vision alive even today, says John Leland in this NYT report. Rosa Chang sees Gotham Park on 9 acres in Brooklyn that is covered with parking space and six lanes of clattering bridge traffic. Chang is trying to attract $200 million needed for this to happen to add badly needed park space for kids and families in Brooklyn neighborhoods. She has the support of Meera Joshi, deputy mayor of operations, under Mayor Eric Adams, and Dan Doctoroff, deputy mayor under former mayor Michael Bloomberg. Doctoroff who helped create other parks in New York City sees this park could bring in $290 million for local merchants by bringing in Asians, Hispanics and Blacks, Whites all closer together in this space. It would provide green park space for park deprived neighboring communities. Bloomberg and Doctoroff created 7 parks in the city including the High Line and Brooklyn Bridge Park. It is  people like Chang, who was born in South Korea, grew up in Toronto and visited many cities in Europe and around the world, that understand what livable spaces look like and where green space is essential for kids and families to grow up. ...