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GM expects the small car Chevy Beat will help it reach 100,000 vehicles sold in India. Sales were 70,000 in 2009. Beat joins Spark and Aveo-UA, the other Chevy brands.

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An IFO Institute Survey of German businessmen shows 43% think there would be a no-deal Brexit. Germany's Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, thinks a disorderly Brexit "would hit the German economy hard." Germany had a $48 billion surplus with the UK in 2017. Britain is Germany's fifth largest trading partner.

Interestingly German businessmen including Bernhard Matthes, the president of the German car manufacturers association, all of them do not want the German government to offer more concessions to Britain. Even though they say the no-deal Brexit would be profoundly damaging. When they sit down with Merkel they do not say they want a different approach. The priority they say is that the European Union member states stick together and not make concessions that would invite others to go that way.

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Shinichi Sasaki, Toyota Executive Vice President in charge of Quality, the chief Quality officer at Toyota, explained at a press conference that Toyota has a good handle on individual components quality but not enough on the quality of components as they interact in environmental conditions inside the car. Moisture could collect on gas pedals inside the car in certain environmental conditions and cause the car pedal to get depressed and stick. There is a lack of research he said on how how accelerator pedal systems were affected by certain climate conditions and how moisture could collect inside the pedals and cause overacceleration. This caused one of the 2 recalls made by Toyota recently. Total recalls worldwide for faulty pedals and floor mats is now around 8.1 millon units. Mr Sasaki said that Toyota's research has shown that the gas pedal's electronics were not at fault. The fix Toyota has come up with is to ship a part , a shim, a small piece of metal which when inserted into the gas pedal assembly will prevent it from being stuck in a depressed position. Sasaki fears a global hit to Toyota sales especially in the U.S. market....

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BUSH AND E85- ITS UPTO MARKET ECONOMICS, NO DIRECT ACTION AS IN BRAZIL. U.S. oil companies are skeptical about E85 and are not investing in pumps and filling stations. Only 800 of 17,000 gasoline filling stations in the U.S. have ethanol. Unless required to do so station owners are not likely to invest thousands of dollars in ethanol pumps. In Brazil the government took direct action to promote ethanol use, giving sugar cane companies cut rate loans and guaranteed prices for the product, and it required state run Petrobras to make ethanol available at filling stations. The cost auto companies say in this article is only about $100 extra per vehicle for extra anticorrosive materials and computer sensors for ethanol capable cars. With market economics and no direct government action the picture is fuzzy how the whole E85 project is going to come out.

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Consumers are taking on new loans for cars and purchases such as refrigerators, but at the same time businesses and consumers are paying off debt at a faster rate. The sharp decline in the Euribor rate in 2015 is good news for Spanish consumers and business as most loans are tied to the Euribor rate. Yet memories of the severe downturn in the Spanish economy are leading to consumers reducing debt with reluctance to take on new loans. The result is that even though Spain's economy is expected to show 3% growth in GDP in 2015, the loan levels at Spanish banks are expected to remain flat in 2015 over 2014. The IMF says GDP will not reach precrisis levels till 2017, reflecting how deep this downturn has been in Spain. IMF forecasts show that debt held by Spain's businesses and households will be double economic output till about 2020.

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Samuelson of the Washington Post thinks lowering the mortgage payment to 31% through loan restructuring or allowing bankruptcy judges to make decisions about amount owed by borrowers is not the solution. He says give homeowners a10% tax credit upto $15,000 to stimulate home purchases. This is what the National Association of Home Builders is asking for. But in todays tight credit environment and job insecurity would this have any chance of working, fearful consumers and home buyers simply postpone purchases of big price items like cars and homes. This is an entirely rational decision especially when the consumer is overextended and pension funds value in stock holdings has dropped by around a third. These types of arguments have stalled any serious effort to prevent foreclosures by helping borrowers under water, as Martin Feldstein has suggested since early 2008, which only worsens the effects on home prices and on the economy.

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The NYT editorial on December 5 the day after the second effort by the automakers to present a case for a bailout loan, this time for $34 billion. The NYT says this time the automakers CEO's left 2 things behind in Detroit. One is their resignations, and other is plans to truly achieve the fuel efficiency gains possible comparable to what the European Union is aiming for, which is 50 miles per gallon in 2015. Instead the congress enacted under the influence of automaker lobbying groups a watered down fuel efficiency bill according to NYT, of 35 miles per gallon by 2020. It says experts believe that 43mpg could be achieved by then (2020) even without any technological breakthroughs and 50mpg could be achieved by making smaller cars. Only new management says the NYT could bring the deep cultural change needed for the industry in Detroit.

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In areas such as elderly care facilities Japan leads the world in designing such robots for staff and for aging seniors. Robots are also seen as useful for housecleaning services, simple yet complex tasks as washing dishes, cleaning rooms, vacuuming, are tackled by robots as the number of workers available for such tasks is small. Robots are also used at the entry of buildings. With low immigration and resistance to immigration, Japan prefers to use robots. The robots will be in display for the Olympics with Toyota having a special set of welcoming robots. 

Japan leads the way in making robots human, cuddly and friendly, and are presented in this way in popular culture. A big difference from the way robots are used in manufacturing by U.S., Taiwan, South Korea and China, and how robots are seen in other countries.

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The role of stay-at-home husbands in the professional careers of women in banking. Women working in senior positions at Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, JP Morgan and other banks describe their experiences in life with long hours, business trips and stay-at-home husbands to take care of home and children in a reverse situation from that of their parents.

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The failure of mega deals like the purchase of Warner Lambert and Pharmacia by Pfizer for $178 billion to do much in the long run. Pfizer's share price has fallen 70% in a decade and its market capitalization is $95 billion. J&J and Abbott have made smaller acquisitions and J&J's acquisitions have generated stable revenues with branded health-care products.

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Wyson Lungu returned to Zambia after studying in the US and joined a telecommunications company in Lusaka. On one of his trips to a remote part of Zambia his car broke down and needed repairs. It took 24 hours before a man with a bicycle helped get him to a place 8 hours away by bicycle. This was one of the few bicycles in that village. Most women simply walked 4 hours carrying farm produce for sale on roadsides starting at 2 or 3 in the morning. This is when Lungu started a bicycle business for farming villages, and so far has sold 3000 bicycles to women in farming villages, with bicycle repair places set up in the villages for bicycle repair and maintenance. This is changing lives in these remote farming villages of Zambia and helping women who do agricultural work in small farms. Lungu relies on cooperative associations he sets up in the villages to organize the sales including payment in instalments and through barter of commodities such as crops or maize. ...

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Higher savings, covid assistance checks, and cheap credit led to higher consumer spending in the second half of 2020. This lasted through the higher inflation in 2022 when consumer spending outpaced inflation by two percentage points. The share of monthly income set aside for savings dropped from a high in April 2020, to 7.5% in December 2021, to 3.4% in December 2022. This is rapidly reversing with increase in mortgage rates and interest rates by the Fed to 4.75%, home and car sales the lowest in a decade. Inflation is at 5% year over year and wages up 4.6% in December year over year. The labor market is tight with about 10 million unfilled jobs and unemployment at 3.4%. Tech and other companies that overly expanded during the pandemic and are under antitrust oversight are laying off some employees. A recession is possible but this depends on how Jay Powell at the Fed reads the employment situation so that it brings down inflation but not so much that it hurts American workers. ...

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The auto parts industry is seeing a huge transformation as American Axle, Visteon and other companies look to Europe, Asia and other countries for growth and shift to a lower cost manufacturing base overseas. Costs are in many cases about 5 times in the USA than in other countries in Asia. And health care costs are a major part of the costs the auto parts makers face in the USA. To get an idea of how fundamental a change is going on American Axle which in 1995 did not have a plant overseas now expects 75% of its $1.3 billion in product orders to be met by plants overseas. And it is planning to build plants in India and Thailand. Visteon which used to be part of Ford Motor and made parts like heating and cooling systems mainly for Ford, will by 2010 according to Visteon's CEO, have sales to Hyundai and Kia of 28% of sales, making the Korean company its largest buyer. Ford's North American operations will only account for 6% of sales from 15% today. That is a dramatic change and involves closing plants in the US. For Visteon this means $635 million in cost reduction mainly through plant closings in 2008-2010....

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Fuel efficiency rules require average fuel efficiency in the U.S. of 35 mpg by 2016. The debate is now on what to do for 2017 to 2025. New technology such as the P2 systems for hybrids already used in VW, Nissan and Hyundai vehicles makes a 20% increase in fuel efficiency possible. Large investments are being made to bring new technology to bear on increasing fuel efficiency significantly. Government agencies are looking at different scenarios by which the new fuel economy standards beyond 2017-2025 could be set between 47 mpg and 62 mpg. An additional factor is the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions- at 47 mpg the reduction would be 3%, at 62 mpg the reduction would be 6%. Another factor is how much the impact is on the cost of vehicles and reduced cost on gasoline. Here there is a wide range in the numbers for average mpg rules at 62 mpg- with EPA estimates at $2800-$3500 increase in vehicle cost and $5000 savings in fuel cost, Centre for Automotive Research estimates at $9790 increase in vehicle cost. The 62 mpg translates into "real world" actual efficiency of 45 mpg. In April 2011, 17 senators put out a letter of support for the 62 mpg proposal. There is a public value involved in this that is also significant- the reduced dependence on foreign oil means savings in defense expenditures in parts of the Middle East, and an economy that is less impacted by volatility in the price of oil. As this aspect of public value or benefits cannot be quantified easily even though they are significant, this may tend to be lost in the debate and the politics of fuel efficiency. For automakers there is significant marketing value in having a visible and strong presence in fuel efficient vehicles because of perception as forward looking- something that hurt Detroit carmakers in the last decade. During periods of gasoline prices at $5 a gallon this provides carmakers with an extra cushion of safety in securing car sales. Carmakers in one country such as the U.S. also have to worry about what carmakers in other countries such as Japan and Germany are doing- if the standards in the U.S. develop a gap compared to other countries developing advanced fuel efficiency technologies this poses significant risks because of the global nature of the automobile marketplace. See the group "Asleep at the Spigot" for more details on this. Many of these less quantifiable factors do not get the attention they deserve because they are significant from experience but not easily quantified. Throw into this the large unknown of what new technologies not yet developed lie ahead with a burst of effort by one country or another, which bring cost reductions at the same time - and the debate requires as much a good sense of what is the path offering the greatest advantages in years ahead than a pure exercize in numbers. ...

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Under the law overturned by the US Supreme Court it was illegal to carry a gun openly and a permit was needed in New York to carry it concealed. Three Supreme Court Justices appointed by president Trump were of a disposition that opposed gun control laws- Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. The requirement under the New York law was that you had to show "good moral character" and "cause" to carry a concealed weapon or carry a gun openly. Many other states have such laws in California, Hawaii and urban states in the north east. Republican states are loosening gun control laws. This comes as many random shooting incidents are taking place in the US some in schools and grocery stores, the most recent being a shooting in Buffalo, NY. The vote was 6-3 after the Supreme Court for years had avoided hearing such cases based on Second Amendment rights from the Constitution that some had interpreted to include freely carrying guns without any common sense restrictions. This issue is second only to abortion as a cultural issue in the US on which sides are taken by the public including the Supreme Court Justices selected by Mr. Trump. Though not directly apparent these and issues of immigration, other cultural issues surrounding gay rights are putting those who would normally come together on issues of national interest on opposite sides when it comes to common sense support for everyday issues of feeding families, keeping workers employed in good factories at home, child care, education, health care, fair wages, restoring America's manufacturing leadership and bringing back manufacturing to the US. The emergence of Tech and tech companies, Silicon Valley, the finance sector in New York, has reinforced the prejudice in these opposing sides as Tech and the finance sector have largely embedded themselves into the Democratic side. Tech and finance sector employees with higher incomes have largely insulated themselves from the interests of ordinary workers and families creating a split Democratic party when it comes to supporting workers and families who form the vast majority of the American people. In a sense today the national interest is separate from these cultural issues and supporters of national interests can be found in both parties who can look beyond and above these cultural issues. It is also where many of these cultural issues can be resolved to some degree using common sense on which most informed members of Congress can agree. This is true for gun control as a group of bipartisan Senators from both parties are preparing gun control around common sense principles that today are even beyond the capacity of the Supreme Court of the US that itself now reflects a raucous public sphere. ...

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The US Saudi Strategic Alliance is modeled on the US Japan Treaty and commits US to defend the Saudi kingdom. A draft of the treaty is being negotiated. It requires a two thirds majority in US Congress. A parallel US Saudi Cooperation Agreement is also put in place by Biden and can be done by Executive Order. What motivates this at this time and why after 9/11 when most of the attackers were Saudi, and after relations with Saudi deteriorated under Obama and president Biden's questioning some Saudi actions? The two main reasons are the change Salman of Saudi is bringing to the country modernizing its internal society and and freeing it up from the religion based restrictions of an earlier period, and his focus on investment in the economic development working with India and partners in the region, a relief from the incessant wars from the period of Reagan/Bush as the US makes domestic policy benefits determine foreign policy under Biden. Unknown in most of the world and media a change of demeanor happened at the G-20 meetings in India when prime minister Modi brought Biden and Salman together on economic development plans of a development corridor linking India through Saudi andest Asia to Europe. Biden supported the effort and it showed the Saudis under Salman as leading a development plan along with Modi and other partners for development in the Middle East after frequent wars dissipating the resources of the region and of the US. since Reagan/Bush policy failures and escalation. It is this intervening period of three decades of war that led to China's gains in relation to the US, with twin strikes to the US of China's domination of supply chains, deindustrialization, and loss of manufacturing jobs for working classes in US and Europe. Coupled with this is the opportunity for Biden and Blinken to give Israel an opportunity it never enjoyed for most of its life as a free nation since 1948 to have peace with its Arab neighbors. It is even possible that the prospect of this happening without a settlement for Palestinian statehood that would leave things in Gaza and Palestine at status quo that propelled the sudden attack on Israel. Biden and Blinken want to do the Saudi deal with a new element of getting Palestinian statehood on a basis of respect for dignity of people and of economic independent country which would put to rest decades of Arab neighbor disapproval of Israel. This is both a new vision of West Asia, what we call the Middle East, and an opportunity to focus and also cope with on Asia with the rise of China, India, as the two largest economies with EU and US in the world. ...

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In launching the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission prime minister Modi says it "has th potential of bringing a revolutionary change in India's health facilities."  Following the launch of Arogya Setu app and the 900 million vaccine doses given under Co-Win for the free vaccine campaign this is the next step.  To take healthcare facilities to a new level and integrate it with technology prime minister Modi noted the 1.25 billion remote consultations under telemedicine that have taken place since March 2021 under e-Sanjeevani. Using this people in all parts of India are able to connect with doctors of large hospitals in cities. Ayushman Digital will connect digital solutions of hospitals across India to each other. This would make process simplified and enhance ease of living. Under this plan every citizen would now get a digital health ID and health records digitally protected. The overall model is for preventive healthcare and in event of disease easy, affordable, accessible healthcare.  Part of the plan is to build the facilities and resources to be able to handle needs. For doctors and para medical manpower a comprehensive network of AIIMS and modern health institutions is being setup, and one medical college is being setup for every 3 Lok Sabha parliamentary constituencies. In villages and rural areas primary health care network is being strengthened. Over 80,000 centers of this type have been operationalized.    ...

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Abrams and De Acosta, Bellman of the WSJ look at growth and modernization in India in comparison with China and other countries. GDP per capita would take 10 years to reach the stage at which spending power of the people equals that in China today. At one point in 1980 China and South Korea were closer in GDP per capita than India. It is only now that India is accelerating towards the scale and depth of modernization done in China.  India's growth rate of over 7% is likely to surge after some of the problems in bad loans in the banking sector are cleared up. A wave of technological advances would help accelerate growth. Ease of doing business and foreign investment are on upward trend, for absorbing new technology from advanced countries. A shift to very low prices for data use with rapid development of 4G services is one of the recent achievements. Manufacturing growth remains a challenge to be tackled to create the jobs needed.  Revamping tax structures such as GST and shifting the economy towards use of electronic cash has increased revenues needed to invest in infrastructure, health and education.  As much of the potential for future growth comes from people at the lower income levels, improving social indicators such as sanitation, cleanliness, farmer incomes, universal bank accounts, universal access to health care, are steps that lay the foundation for the future. ...

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With use of the software technologies and cloud computing Athenahealth hopes to revolutionize the medical records of physician practices. Here Joseph Rago of the WSJ talks to Jonathan Bush, CEO of Athenahealth. Bush says the way things are done now in healthcare there is no choice and choosers, and ther is not thing like a market in health care and people in Washington DC don't understand remotely why a market might be remotely useful. The deep problem in American health care he says is that no one knows the actual value of the services doctors give, not even the doctors, and the complexity of the method of payments keeps everything hidden, as doctor's clerical staff bills your treatment to insurance companies picked by your employer, and pays the doctor through money taken from premiums or foregone wages. Athena designed a program to digitize records and automate billing and is moving into clincal record keeping. It now has 15,000 physicians in 43 states using its program as avirtual office and growth at 30%....

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The American consumer still spends money on bigger ticket items like luxury cars and iPads. The rich are largely shielded from this recession and one might forget that even with a 10% unemployment rate, says one economist, there are still 90% with jobs, about 75% confident of keeping them, and half with liquidity. So there is spending which is erratic. A sort of EKG type recovery in which it keeps changing all the time, with no consistent pattern. Consumers who are uncertain about the future and facing tight budgets save on toothpaste and basic consumer items, while other consumers continue to spend. A Consumer Reports survey shows consumers willing to spend on appliances and electronics. American Express conducted its survey of consumers and found consumers behind on their savings plans and making impulse purchases, or going outside their means to buy things. One analyst who follows the savings rate closely thinks consumers are spending because the stock market recovered after the 2008 crisis, and as the stock market falters consumers will start saving more. And Prof. Dan Ariely of Duke University, a behavioural economist, says that people who fear losing money in stock market fluctuations feel better spending their money, this way a least they have something to show for it. One reason apple's IPad has done so well is that consumers see it as a compromise purchase, they can give themselves a little something as a reward and still not have to buy a Mac which costs a lot more. And in the patterns of American consumer behaviour experts point to behaviour where consumers will save at Target by buying cheaper brands or buy at Dollar stores for things like paper towels and detergents, and then go out and spend on something pricey to reward themselves or have that feel good feeling. So you have this development that sales are up 9% this year at the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minneapolis, USA's largest mall. People look at price tags and shop for deals, they cut spending in places and spend in other areas. ...

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How Marchionne made the turnaround at Fiat. It takes a crisis to get something done, but you also need a leader who can make things happen. Marchionne turned out to have a direct approach to Fiat's problems, not shirking away from anything he needed to get done. But how he was able to get workers and the younger managers to team up in a new culture of openness and directness to get things done shows that he brought some rare qualities of leadership and persuasion.