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Harvard professor Robert Lawrence tells Tom Keene, the Obama administration has'nt paid that much attention to trade and trade agreements. He says this is unfortunate because it is important to lower barriers to trade, create fair trade, and increase U.S. exports.

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Japanese Dads are taking on a bigger role and changing parenting. BBC Future shows this story about Japanese dads from a new generations that are taking on the joys, difficulties and responsibilities of parenting.  A new kind of superhero in Japanese manga comics is Ikumen, a Japanese term (from ikuji for childcare) for young dads actively spending time with their children compared to an earlier generation of fathers who spent most of their time at work, and rarely took on family responsibilities. During the sixties and seventies as Japan emerged from the wartime recovery and modernized Japanese culture defined men's role to spend most of the time at work, even getting allowance for spending from their wives who controlled the family budget.  In 2010 the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare started the Ikumen project to increase paternal involvement in child caring. This was a major cultural change and was part of the change in culture needed for the Third Arrow of Japan's Abenomics project to get women's participation up to western country levels. Today the women's participation rate in workplaces exceeds that of the U.S. Even in the 1980's men spent on average about 40 minutes with their children mostly during the family meal in the evening and even had to have their wives find their clothes. The common saying was - "jishin, kaminari, kaji, oyaji," earthquake, thunder, fire and father, remote and given respect. Women's reaction was not positive as they postponed marraige for later, then even not marrying at all for the next generation, leading to reduced childbirth rates. The Ikumen project projected fathers in a masculine role of heroes for taking on parenting, like the t-shirt logo "Strength for Society" portraying them as saving society, saving the  country. About 45% now support the idea of "men should work, women should stay at home" compared to 60% in 1992- drop of 15%. The statistics do not quite tell the story because during this period women participation in the workplace has jumped to western country levels as part of Abenomics Third Arrow to revive the economy. The problem that is still being tackled is that of bosses in the workplace who lack awareness and discourage taking paternal leave which has risen from 2% to 7% in five years 2012 to 2017. ...

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With the introduction of the iPhone 4S, Apple announced the iPhone 3GS will be offered free, and the iPhone 4 for $99. This puts Apple iPhones priced to compete with smartphones in the middle and lower price ranges in the market. The free iPhone is a model first introduced in 2009. As the expansion of the smartphone market is now ocurring at the low and mid price ranges, companies making smartphones using Google's Android software and Blackberry's RIM are targeting this market. In the U.S., as of the end of July 2011, 82 million Americans owned smartphones, increasing 10% from the prior quarter, according to comScore. 42% of U.S. smartphone users use Android phones, only 27% use Apple phones, as of the end of July 2011, because of the price difference. In India Apple iPhones have barely made a dent because of large price differences. Rapid growth expected in emerging markets will also make this low end of the smartphone market attractive for Apple.

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Paul Krugman, Nobel prize winning economist points out an astonishing fact about the 2016 U.S. presidential election- U.S. television networks nightly news devoted only 32 minutes in 2016 to all policy issues combined. And these networks devoted 100 minutes to Clinton emails. He calls this "disgraceful."  For weeks at a time in September and October the main television networks lacked the integrity and courage to ask questions and persist on the major questions facing the country of the economy, correcting income distribution that has been skewed away from the middle and working class, infrastructure rebuilding, education and healthcare, and what the policy proposals of each candidate would do for the country. Krugman does not mention this but the media devoted hardly any time to the economic plan devised by Trump that respected economists and economic analysis showed would increase the deficit by $5.3 trillion, and lead to a short term temporary increase in growth followed by a sharp decline. The worst thing that could happen to middle and working class families struggling to recover from the blow to their finances from the last recession.  The cyber hacking of a U.S. presidential election by a foreign power never received the unanimous rejection that it deserved from the television networks, not just Fox News as Krugman points out, but by all the networks. The future landscape of the media needs assessment to bring in new ideas and new entrants to bring constructive improvements, and for older media organizations to rebuild after the loss of confidence among young people. Only about a quarter of young people in the U.S. have confidence in the large media organizations news coverage according to surveys done recently. There are other pressures coming from the tech world that make it imperative to do this. Many experts point to the destructive effect of social media in spreading rumors or information disguised as facts, which are spread instantly by Twitter and Facebook, without any obligation to check the facts. This is also dangerous with a public that is now divided between better educated and less educated along political lines, older more settled in their views people, and younger people quicker in looking for the facts and checking things out before believing them. ...

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Do you ever wonder how Japan keeps it streets so clean. There are no litter bins or street sweepers to be seen. This report in the BBC News looks at Japan's cleanliness ethic starting from school days for children growing up with the idea that clean is what you make happen with your own two hands and a broom. That is all it takes and a sense of personal responsibility infused into the culture from school days as children.  For 12 years of school life from elementary school to high school cleaning the school is part of the school routine for students. The social consciousness was developed in this way and children as they grow up learn to take pride in their cleanliness and in the cleanliness of their surroundings. This carries over to cleaning up the neighborhood.  In India's Swachh Clean India campaign their are street clean sweepers in addition to people themselves taking on the job of cleaning. This is ok for public facilities like railway stations underbridges and other public facilities, but for neighborhoods and schools making cleaning a part of the routine in schools is a good idea that needs to be universally adopted as part of Swachh India, Clean India campaign. This also holds true for all Asian and Latin American, African nations which could learn from the keeping the country clean efforts of Japan and more recently India. As India shows not having done this well before is no reason for discouragement, getting started and keeping it going, building public awareness and support is the key. This is particularly true for developing countries because it is easier to prevent illness and disease by increasing levels of hygiene and sanitation, saving hundreds of millions of dollars for large countries like India and Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, for days and productivity lost. It also pushes countries to the next stage of development faster through infrastructure development and quality of public services, quality of life.    ...

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Moderate far right, right and socialist have less meaning in the context of the French government of prime minister Michael Barnier. The NFP as the largest single party sees the turning down of it's moderate candidate Lucie Castets by Macron as not representative of the vote. Michael Barnier's choice as prime minister from the Les Republicains party with 47 members in the new National Assembly, the smallest of the top four parties NFP, Renaissance, RN and LR, means he will have to depend on Marie Le Pen's RN party to remain prime minister. Together the Les Republicains of Sarkozy and the Ensemble of Macron  have 213 members in the National Assembly representing the status quo, 168 for Ensemble Macron and 45 Les Republicians the Gaullist party. These two parties are the largest bloc combined compared to 182 seats for the socialist NFP Front Populaire and the Le Pen party with 143 seats. The strange twist is that Macron started out in the Socialist Party and was part of the Socialist administration of Francois Hollande, who formed his own party Renaissance (now Ensemble) to bring younger faces and replace the old political parties. This led to the decline of the Gaullist Les Republicains party. In 2024 Macron is back to the old parties- becoming part of an alliance with the old Les Republicains Gaullists. Yet the financial crises of 2009, the pandemic, and the inflation crises in France have changed France from what it was in the Gaullist De Gaulle period in the 60's to 90's, with a struggling lower and middle class who have shifted their support to Le Pen and to the Socialist Front Populaire. Barnier is left with the challenging job of combining new immigration policies (Le Pen) with socialist policies to help the middle and working class. A new consensus that says stopping migrants is part of helping working class (in Denmark and other EU countries) is how Barnier has to approach this situation to bring together different parties. ...

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By September 2009, says the NYT based on a state by state analysis of Labor Department numbers, 1 out of 4 persons in California will either be out of work or just working part time. At this time in July 2009, 1 in 5 persons in California are in this situation. This would mean a 25% unemployment/underemployment rate in California, and the rate in Florida, North Carolina and Washington could reach 20%, by September 2009. This spring the unemployment/underemployment rate reached 23.5% in Oregon, 21.5% in Michigan and Rhode Island, and 20.3% in California. In Tennessee, Nevada and some other states that rely heavily on manfacturing or housing, the rate was just under 20% this spring, and may have since passed that number. And so far only $90 billion of the stimulus has made it out the door according to Moody's Economy.com. From now until the end of 2010, an additional $25 billion or thereabouts will be spent every month. In most of the Great Plains States and the Mountain West the unemployment/underemployment rate was still below 12% in spring 2009, and in North Dakota as low as7.8%. But these states are getting adisproportionate share of the stimulus fund, which shows that the allocation of stimulus funds needs to be adjusted. Who are these parttime workers and how many are there? Take Richard Smith and his wife Lyn. They left Michigan where he worked for GM and Ford in white collar jobs till he was laid off. Mr Smith moved to Charlotte, N. Carolina last summer. He hasn't found full time work after sending in hundreds of applications. He now works a few days aweek at agolf shop, repairing clubs and making $9.50 an hour. With the help of that money he has bought abargain-basement foreclosed house. Part time workers like the Smiths comprise about one third of the 20% unemployment/underemployment rates in states like Michigan and Oregon, so the rate for those who are completely out of work is around 13% in these 2 states....

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The crisis of late 2008 and early 2009 in the global economy saw huge stimulus programs, resposible economic management, and rapid recovery by the end of 2009 in developing countries. China put in place a large stimulus program, and in most developing countries, India, Vietnam, Brazil and other countries efforts were made to strengthen the safety net for the poor and to introduce stimulus for creating jobs. India and Indonesis saw the return of ruling party governments and in Brazil Lula da Silva had favorability ratings above 60%. So contrary to earlier fears in late 2008 their was both asense of political stability and asense of confidence in the developing countries. Capital is flowing into these countries and the IIF says that net private capital inflows to developing countries will double in 2010 to $672 billion. Russia which saw capital outflows of $50 billion in the first 9 months saw $20 billon of capital inflows in the fourth quarter of 2009. Half of the 140 million laborers working in Chinese cities returned home in early 2009, a fifth stayed there and another fifth counld not find work when they returned to the cities. But as the stimulus in China kicked in, and infrastructure development surged, (see link to the rail infrastructure spending) by the middle of 2009 jobless ness among rural migrant workers went down to less than 3%. This shows in the Pew Global Attitudes Project wth more than 40% of respondents in India, China and Indonesia saying that they were satisfied with their lives, in China this was 87%. In France, Japan and Britain the share is below 30%. In America 49% of those in the Pew pollingfelt that America should mind its own business internationally, 30 points higher than in 1964. When asked "Are you better off in free markets?" the respondents share fell in 2009 in Germany by 4 points, in Spain by 10 points. Shares rose in India and China, and stayed flat in Brazil and Turkey, so there is no backlash against free markets in developing countries....

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The issues China faces as it plans the next phase of massive urbanization. Urbanization is a major priority of prime minister Li Keqiang, which was also the focus of his postgraduate work in his student days. In the early 1980's about 20% of China was urbanized, this has changed over three decades to where the figure is 47%, plus 17% for workers working in the cities but classified as rural, a total of 64%. China's plan is to fully integrate 70% of the population or 900 millon into cities by 2025. In 2013 only 35% of the population has a urban residency permit, or hukou. The permit is needed for residents to register their children in local schools or qualify for medical programs in urban locations. One of the problems is the huge cost of doing this which it is feared could lead to inflation and higher debt levels. Currently local governments bear these costs using land sales, and central government transfer payments, but without added financing and unable to issue their own bonds, the local governments strictly limit the use of local school and health services to their own residents keeping out rural newcomers. Local government taking over farmer plots, often without enough compensation is highly unpopular in China. Other problems are- providing a steady stream of earnings for new urban residents from farms, if no employment can be found. So they can sustain themselves- especially as they get past 40 years of age when factory employment is harder to find. The government planners see the larger urban population as a way to shift from a largely export based economy and slowing growth, to a consumption based economy. But critics say the risk is that for this to happen new residents from the farming villages have to find jobs, something the government will have difficulty accomplishing. A permanent underclass of unemployed and other financially strapped citydwellers living around major cities, as has happened with the progress of urbanization in Brazil and Mexico, is something the government would want to avoid. ...

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Walmart comes out in favor of requiring employers to provide health insurance to all workers, a central feature of President Obama's effort to provide near universal coverage in the USA. As the country's largest private employer, employing 1.4 million Americans, this change is significant. In a letter to the President, Walmart CEO Mike Duke, joined by Andrew Stern of the Service Employees International Union, and John Podesta of the Center for American Progress, who also signed the letter, say they are for an employer mandate which is fair and broad in its coverage. Walmart had a couple of reasons for doing this. For one Walmart needed to join the negotiations, as the Senate Finance Committee is considering other proposals that are less favorable to Walmart than employer mandate. Already Walmart is covering 52% of its employees, and has improved health benefits in recent years in response to criticism of the company. The industry average is 45%, according to a 2008 Kaiser Foundation study, and some companies do not provide the health benefits that Walmart does, so this helps level the playing field by requiring all large companies to share the burden. Walmart wants to see effective cost controls to keep costs down, and Rahm Emmanuel, the President's chief of staff, assured Walmart that "cost control and employer mandate are heads and tails of the same coin." Under the plans considered by the Senate Finance Committee under Max Baucus, small businesses are exempted from the employer mandate. Republicans have opposed employer mandate. And the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has opposed it saying it would make companies lower wages and cut jobs. Walmart's shift has been gradual. From a company used to providing skimpy benefits, it has evolved as it improved benefits, and two years ago it joined the SEIU union to call for affordable health care for all Americans by 2012. It has Mr Dach as its governmental affairs vice president, and this is significant, as Dach is an advisor to Democratic party politicians....

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Mexico's domestic car market is weak, most of the cars are manufactured for export. From 2000 to 2008 the domestic car market in Brazil grew by 80% to 2.67 million vehicles, and in Argentina by 79% to 610,713 vehicles. Sales went up in 2008 by 14% in Brazil and by 8% in Argentina. Whereas in Mexico domestic sales fell 6.8% during 2008 to 1.03 million vehicles. Sales for 2009 in the domestic market are expected to fall by 20%. And auto exports from Mexico fell dramatically in Jan-Feb 2009 dropping by 52% to 89,242 units over same period last year. Auto exports generate a $15 billion surplus for Mexico so there is concern about this sharp drop. Auto exports rose 3% in 2008 to 1.7 million units, and 79% of 2008 domestic production of 2.1 million units went to exports. One in 74 people were sold a car in Brazil in 2008, and 1 in 66 in Argentina, whereas in Mexico it is one in 107 people. And Mexico's minimum wage of 55 pesos is $3.85 per day, the lowest of the 3 countries. The low paying jobs and poor income distribution in Mexico is a reason for this. Under Nafta Mexico also allows the import of cars from the USA which are over 10 years old. Mexico imported 909,000 vehicles in 2009. To keep the Mexican auto industry from sinking the government is considering assistance to the domestic manufacturers, dealers, and car loan companies, a total of 9.5 billion pesos, as well as sales incentives for buyers. But domestic sales are relatively smaller and the market weak to make up for the huge loss in exports judging by the Jan-Feb 2009 numbers off 52%. A lot is at risk with the domestic car industry generating 24% of manufacturing exports, 16% of manufacturing, and with more than a million workers directly or indirectly associated with the industry. Already GM and VW have announced layoffs. ...

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Greg Ip in the WSJ says president Biden's popularity has not surged because of lack of results in the fight against inflation. Yet inflation has been cut in half as reported in the WSJ recently, with May inflation of 4% in the US being about half of what it was at its peak of 9% in 2022.  Inflation is much worse in Europe. Biden policies that helped fight inflation included the Inflation Reduction Act to control health costs, the policies to keep Russian oil below a certain level that reduced oil prices to $75 a barrel, and the sequential interest rate increases by Jerome Powell at the Fed. The long term benefits of increased investment in manufacturing in the US for jobs growth, and competitive policy to gain US leadership in many technologies also provide for sound growth in the long term. 

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The Tokyo National Stadium design approved by a 2012 panel headed by architect Tadao Ando, is scrapped by prime minister Abe of Japan. The design was by the firm Hadid Architects in Britain. Public criticism over the cost of the project for the Tokyo Olympics led to its cancellation. The original project cost estimate was 130 billion yen, with the new cost almost double that of 252 billion yen. Surprisingly Tadao Ando says it was not the panel's job to figure out the cost and he did not have any idea what the cost would be when the design was selected. The debt problems in Greece began with the Athens Olympics. And it is widely thought that president Putin spent too much ($47 billion) on the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics, especially now that Russia's economy is contracting and there is a need for stimulus spending on useful infrastructure.

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Karl Case, co-author with Shiller, of the Case-Shiller housing index, describes what the American dream of owning a house was always all about- having a safe long-term investment with the happiness gained from ownership of one's own home. It was never really meant to become a way to pay bills, and enjoy an artificially high standard of living based on artificially high speculative returns of 30% a year. Based on the authentic verson of this dream, it is still alive, says Case. Buying a house today costs less because of lower interest rates, the costs of a house are lower, and it provides a return in the form of rent that the owner doesn't have to pay for the home. Case has not factored in unemployment and job uncertainty, especially with the worsening economic outlook in 2011. This may still depress housing markets.

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Army General Martin Dempsey is expected to become the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the U.S.. He brings a low key intellectual approach to the job, and was recently appointed chief of staff of the Army. He has worked in key roles in training and transformation of the military, led a combat division in Iraq and supervised the training of Iraqi security forces. Between 2001-2003 he managed the Saudi Arabian National Guard Modernization Program, an internal defence force guarding the Saudi royal family and the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. After the McChrystal appointment and resignation, and the effort by military leaders to get approval of troop buildups by making statements and speeches to affect public opinion, advisors in the Obama administration were looking for someone who would work well in an environment of de-escalation of existing conflicts and lower defense spending.

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Antonio Horta-Osorio of Banco Santander, is a Portuguese native who took up the task of turnaround of Lloyds Bank after the British government took a 39% stake in the bank during the financial crisis. He is credited with a major turnaround, making it possible for the government to sell 6% of its stake earlier than anticipated. He reduced the dependence on short term funding sources and sold off assets overseas. He has also strengthened its retail banking operations in Britain. He took on the task with a micromanaging approach and had to be admitted to a rehab clinic after 5 sleepless nights. Following this period of two months of recovery the Board rehired him in Jan 2012 and he delegated tasks to other managers. Osorio was a senior manager at Banco Santander when he took up the Lloyds job. The stock price of Lloyds has soared in 2013.

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Samuelson of the Washington Post thinks lowering the mortgage payment to 31% through loan restructuring or allowing bankruptcy judges to make decisions about amount owed by borrowers is not the solution. He says give homeowners a10% tax credit upto $15,000 to stimulate home purchases. This is what the National Association of Home Builders is asking for. But in todays tight credit environment and job insecurity would this have any chance of working, fearful consumers and home buyers simply postpone purchases of big price items like cars and homes. This is an entirely rational decision especially when the consumer is overextended and pension funds value in stock holdings has dropped by around a third. These types of arguments have stalled any serious effort to prevent foreclosures by helping borrowers under water, as Martin Feldstein has suggested since early 2008, which only worsens the effects on home prices and on the economy.

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Of the 13 Republicans who lost their seats, nine were members of the Immigration Reform Caucus, which has opposed path to citizenship for an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants, with a 10th member trailing in his race. Caucus founder Rep. Tancredo and Rep. Hunt of California, both for increased border security are retiring. About 100,000 newly naturalized citizens voted in Florida, where 2 members of the immigration reform caucus lost their seats, as Republicans were perceived in their immigration reform stands as anti-Latino. Senator Dole lost her seat in N. Carolina also facing Latino opposition. In the current job losses environment unions will oppose business group's efforts to get more technical workers in on temporary visas, and there is no leadership on this issue like Ted Kennedy who has cancer. As a result the immigration issue may not see much action early in this administration even with the election results.

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Brazil's Senate passes a 20 year spending cap to be reviewed every 10 years put forward by interim president Michel Temer. After years of increased spending and higher deficits, the action is intended to control government spending. It also means reversing some of the spending on healthcare and social programs of the Workers Party of Rousseff and Da Silva. After a long period of Workers party rule with higher spending, the drop in commodity prices and declining growth in China led to stalling growth in a commodities (metals and grain) dependent Brazilian economy. The spending cap passed the Senate 53 to 16. President Temer is  unpopular and seen as part of the same government and elite as Rousseff that led to the corruption scandals- recent polls show 63% of Brazilian people want him to resign and only 10% saying he is doing a good job. A Datafolha poll shows 60% oppose the spending cap. After the impeachment of president Rousseff in the corruption scandal, vice president Temer assumed the presidency till 2018. Brazil's Workers Party was popular during the da Silva years as it expanded spending on social programs- supported by a growing economy with commodities exports to China and high prices- only to see a slumping economy and falling popularity under successor Rousseff as the boom ended. In Argentina a similar process unfolded with higher spending on social programs and growing popularity during the Kirchner presidency- with commodities exports of grains to China- followed by declining popularity as the economy entered a difficult phase with a fall in the value of the peso, and the election of a new president Mauricio Macri.   ...

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Amy Hood growing up in a small town in Kentucky, then a move to Nashvile, Duke and HBS. She joined Microsoft in 2002 on its investor relations team. She moved into management the same time as Nadella who is CEO. Before the pandemic Microsoft's capital expenditures and investments cost about $16 billion. It is now 4 times that at $64 billion. It is Amy Hood's job as Chief Finanacial Officer to see that all that money is well spent for products with demand. AI services bring in about $10 billion annually.  Yet this may just be deflecting by Wall Street of the real question about the funding needs that are being neglected in education, health care and child care, when huge amounts of capital are being diverted by capital markets in ways reminiscent of the warnings of Franklin Roosevelt at the Democratic Convention of 1932. Warnings that the whole capital markets system was not working right, was only defunding the vital needs of the American people. ...