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It is well known that rail has a smaller carbon footprint than automobile travel. The why is Amtrak suffering neglect for so long in the US when it is well funded in Europe, Japan, China and India? It is because of deliberate neglect by many administrations and by the US Congress through lack of funding for new trains, new technological investment, and investing in its infrastructure. President Biden is changing all this with investment of about $66 billion. He used the Acela fast train service for decades from Washington DC to Wilmington. WSJ shows how a new Amtrak is emerging with many new routes, new stations,  and none of the delays that freight railroads imposed on Amtrak for decades. Amtrak is now fighting the freight railroads in court and has the support of the Biden administration.

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Warming of oceans by climate change cause US hurricanes Helene and Milton 2024. Ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico is much higher in October 2024 than the average heat content 2013-2023, as shown in this NYT chart. At a single glance one can see climate change at work. This is real America. And FEMA is stretched thin, not adequately funded for the natural disasters happening all over the US, yet Congress has failed to act, and the AI billionaires shown in today's NYT piece "Imperial Reach," talk about trillions of dollars they wish to divert from essential needs of the Nation in climate change action, disaster relief, childcare, health, and education, more than the GDP of European nations. In effect writing off the Nation's future and future generations.  

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The DJT Executive Order removing birthright citizenship on Jan 20, 2024 applies to future undocumented immigrants, and is based on the part of the 14th Amendment to the US Constitution passed in 1866 by the US Congress and ratified by states in 1868.  The 14th Amendment came after the US Civil War and was aimed at giving emancipated black slaves citizenship. The US Supreme Court gave US citizenship to one Chinese immigrant in US vs Wong in 1898 following the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882. This did not set a precedent as at that time immigration from Asia was extremely restricted and the case was not intended to apply to millions crossing borders as this did not exist. For most of the period 1900-1960 Asian immigration was negligible because of the laws in existence until the Kennedy administration. Immigration from Mexico was mainly for US agricultural farms. When this led to a surge in illegal crossing of the US Mexican border in 1944-1954 a similar situation to today existed when Eisenhower conducted Operation Wetback in 1954 to deport about 1 million undocumented immigrants. ...

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The drop in IPO capital and venture capital is a sign that there is a new awareness of the importance of capital for public investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and in health and education with the active participation and direction of the government and support in the US Congress. This is happening as there is a sharp decline in the productivity of capital invested by so called "tech" companies. And science and technology investments directed with government support are needed in new scientific advances for chip manufacturing. Other technological developments such as solar panel manufacturing to tackle climate change also need much capital, and electric car fueling stations for EV's.

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Senator Manchin wants other countries or regions such as the European Union to go first with the global minimum tax of 15%. Holdouts Poland and Hungary have not agreed to the 15% tax in the EU. After that the US could follow. Mr. Manchin is a Democrat whose vote is needed for Congress to pass the legislation. Currently the tax is set at 10.5% after legislation passed by president Trump.

Much of the funding for HEIRS - for Health, Education, Infrastructure, Retirees and Society- has to come from better collection of taxes, so that everyone pays their fair portion of taxes which tech companies are not doing in the last decade. 

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President Biden has asked for $18 billion for child care stabilization, the children's infrastructure of today. Republican controlled Congress is not responding. Nationwide 16000 childcare providers closed their doors across 37 states in 15 months of 2020 through March 2021. Childcare givers in the US make less than parking attendants, says this story in The Washington Post. Federal grants provided help in Wisconsin and other states, but this money dried up and more childcare centers have closed. This is the soft infrastructure that America needs and is so crucial- for its children and for mothers and fathers. The losses reverberate through local economies. And it disrupts parents, especially mothers ability to work. 

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Jimmy Carter holds the record for appointing federal judges in one term- 262 judges, 55 minorities, 42 women. In 1978 a Democratic Congress responded to a federal case backlog by creating positions for 150 more federal judges, all of which would be filled by Carter. Ruth Bader Ginsburg was one of these judges. Carter did not appoint a single Supreme Court Judge yet Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer another of these judges made it to the US Supreme Court.

By comparison for a single term Biden has appointed 235 federal judges. Reagan with 383 and Clinton with 378 hold the record for federal judges appointed  in two terms.

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UBS and Bank of America reach a settlement with Detroit before the city declared bankruptcy. The settlement was for interest rate swap contracts signed by Detroit officials in 2005, and settles the contracts for 75 cents on the dollar or $230 million. There is safe harbor for traders and banks in interest rate swaps or derivative contracts, so that the usual stay that blocks creditors from collecting debts does not operate. This kind of treatment for derivative contracts makes no logical sense in the context say experts. The swap contracts of 2005 were signed at a time the city took out a $1.4 billion variable interest rate loan to put into its pension funds, with the swaps as a hedge against rising interest rates. In fact Detroit is seeking a $350 million loan from Barclays Capital and it needs to resolve the swap for that loan. From this loan UBS and Bank of America get their $230 million leaving $120 million for streetlights, police and city services badly needed today. Public interest considerations of this kind were not considered by Congress when it made the rule for safe harbors universal in derivative contracts to reduce systemic risk of one financial institution dragging others into a systemic crisis. The safe harbor make it harder for a judge to say this thing smells and make attempts to change it. ...

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The failure of the 117th Congress to pass key parts of president Biden's agenda for hard hit families and workers in America is now taking place. The 50-50 standoff in the US Senate and failure of two Democrat senators Sinema of Arizona, Manchin of West Virgina to support Biden's Families and Workers Plan leaves key parts of the safety net being left out. This leaves out the education, and paid leave part of the agenda and provisions for utilities to accelerate shift away from coal out of the bill. It fails to implement a new national agenda for upward mobility, child care and paid leave to help stressed out mothers and families. The failure to include even a modest community college 2 years of support at a time when men's college enrollment is dropping to disastrous levels for America's economic competitiveness is a failure of the 117th Congress to grasp the needs of families and workers in America today. Only a new Congress in 2022 can take up the needed action for families and workers in education, health care, child care and help for families. The passage of the infrastructure bill and the current version of the social spending bill can only be seen as a first step in the right direction, after three decades of different administrations neglecting infrastructure, education, healthcare, childcare, elderly care, upward mobility, and climate change. On the plus side as the first step to restore dignity and health of families and workers in America it includes- $150 billion for rental assistance, home buying help, public housing repairs, and building 1 million affordable housing units. $150 billion for federal programs for home health care and community care for older Americans and people with disabilities $165 billion to reduce premiums for people under Affordable Health Care Act, cover additional 4 million through Medicaid, adding hearing coverage but not dental or vision to Medicare. $200 billion for child care tax credit to parents. $400 billion to reduce health care costs and give universal pre-kindergarden for 3-4 year old children. $40 billion for worker training $555 billion for fighting climate change including through tax incentives for sources of energy that are low emission and low carbon. It will be paid for by additional taxes on incomes of very high income earners in annual $1 million plus range, and by having a corporate minimum tax of 15% for large corporations, including on profits overseas, that previously did not pay this tax. A wealth tax on unrealized capital gains of billionaires or other wealth of the richest Americans is left for a future Congress to consider for financing the key parts of climate change provisions, education and health care that were left out. The education and healthcare provisions need to be expanded to restore America's historic mission of upward mobility for all. A provision for Medicare to comprehensively negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies that would be taken for granted in any advanced country as in Europe, is also left for a future Congress that understands and responds to the dire needs of families and workers in America for affordable healthcare medicine neglected by administration after administration for the last three decades.   ...

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President Biden and leaders in the EU, Japan, India and other countries helped negotiate the global minimum tax. Companies would have to pay a minimum tax of 15% in 140 jurisdictions so that tax base shifting could not happen. Yet the US will not get the benefit of these increased taxes to invest more into R&D, manufacturing, infrastructure and strengthen its economy because Republicans have not supported it in Congress. The OECD countries, major EU countries from the EU, Japan and South Korea will get an additional revenue of $192 billion in 2024 as a result of the Global Minimum Tax. Yet even here the GMT is making a difference as companies see not much difference in the different jurisdictions for tax rates the shift is for companies to setup in the US especially for American companies who had always had their base in the US till the tax shifting began.

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BBC's Mark Tullly reflects on the period of coverage from 1962-1994 of South Asia. He says of Indira Gandhi that she took the democratic process out of the Indian National Congress party, and set up her sons as future leaders that was undemocratic. Here he reflects on that period in an intervew with the BBC after he left the BBC.  He has deep connections to the Indian period after 1800 as his great grand father on his mothers side was around 1840 in a part of Uttar Pradesh where British planters had farmers plant opium that would later be bought by planters for export. This coincides with the period when Britain in Hong Kong traded in opium as part of British trading in the emerging colonial culture British Empire. There is mixed legacy for Britain in India and China. The history of the Opium Wars in the 1850's and opening up of colonial ports ended with the 1900's revolution and the emergence of the CCP in China by 1950. In India the legacy was mixed bringing together this part of Asia into a new nation and bringing parliamentary traditions of Britain that provided the basis for good governance.  Tully is a softspoken thoughtful Englishman who revolted against British classical education in his youth and studied history and religion at Cambridge, made friends with the future bishops of Canterbury and Lincoln at Cambridge. He is not the Englishman of the Empire as his fondest memories are of the servants verandahs on the bungalows of Britishers and the smoke from their quarters, and the language. So it is a thoughtful view that he gives of the undemocratic nature of Indira Gandhi and mismanagement of the economy that could have changed if India had gone in a different direction under other leaders in the the 1990's. Why is this significant? China's modernization drive started in the 1990's. India's by the undemocratic nature and mismanagement under Indira Gandhi did not start its modernization till 2010, about 20 years after China, opening up a huge gap that is only now being corrected leading to problems for world security, US security, European security and Indian security. And delaying the aspirations of development of 1.4 billion people for 2 decades. Vikshit Bharat cannot come fast enough for both Merz in Germany and Leyen at the European Union, who last week and this week visit Ahmedabad and India for the Kite festival and for Republic Day 2026. ...

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Senator Warren (Democrat) and Banks (Republican) in Congress in bipartisan action to protect in the transfer of US technologies ro competitors.

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Ezra Klein in the NYT says Biden is more relevant to America's challenges and more effective today than ever before. The Biden today is very different he says than even the Biden of 2020, and clearly from the Biden of years as vice president. Biden has grown with experience and the changing situation in America, he has learned a lot over the years, has experience and connections with the US Congress that give him a rare sense of confidence to get things done. He also the authenticity that many Republican and Democrats lack, the topic for a recent column by Peggy Noonan in the WSJ. Noonan feels the announcement by Nikki Haley for the presidential candidacy was oddly stuck in the past as politics was done before 2023, which today is not acceptable after the pandemic and a world finding its bearings.  Biden was clear in the State of the Union. He could be himself and tackle the nation's problems from his own understanding and long experience, stating things as they are and how he sees the solutions being developed. It is alright not to have the perfect sentence, it is getting things done that America needs and expects. There is so much that America needs to get done and Biden looked vigorous and undaunted in the State of the Union address to Congress. ...

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The former interim Speaker Rep. Patrick McHenry, Republican North Carolina, tells a University of Chicago student audience that one can hold off a majority Congressmen only for so long, that there could be a two third majority in the House favoring the Ukraine aid. That bill for $61 billion in Ukraine aid passed the US Senate 70-30 with 22 Republican Senators supporting it but is blocked for 2 weeks by Speaker Mike Johnson for a House vote. Former Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin tell a Washington Post event that House Speaker Mike Johnson has to make up his mind to be decisive and take action that get things done. Ryan served as vice presidential nominee and became Speaker in October 2015 eight years before Mike Johnson in a similar situation where his job depended on different factions. Mike Johnson's view is that he wants to be seen as listening to all members to kind of decentralizing things. Yet as more experienced members of Congress say the only way to get things done is for the Speaker to take action on his own accord and let the situation rest there having done his best. This situation is happening today in the House as about half of all Congressmen in the House of Representatives have not served in Congress before January 2019, says The Washington Post. ...

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  Th full push for industrialization and modernization happened under BJP party's Modi in Gujarat state when Manmohan Singh was PM from Congress party, with Modi's model adopted by the whole nation when Modi became PM in 2014. In 1947 India gained independence but remained a poor undeveloped country with a large population of 340 million lacking the funds for rapid economic development. It had experimented with elections in the 1930's setting up state assemblies under British rule. This continued under Jawaharlal Nehru of the Congress party but development stagnated under his successors Indira Gandhi and Rajmohan Gandhi his daughter and grandson. In 2000 the opposition party under Vajpayee assumed office and made the shift to a market economy.  Manmohan Singh, economist and head of the Indian central bank, finance minister gave India a period of transition after the government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee of the Bharatiya Janata party full term in office 1999-2004. He introduced economic change through the unwinding of the socialist economy under Jawaharlal Nehru, a nuclear agreement with the US allowing access to nuclear technology, yet failed to tackle a central issue in the way India was governed with leakage of funds for development through corrupt politicians slowing the pace of investment and industrial revolution in India.    ...

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Republican McConnell and Democrat Schumer in interviews in recent days with The Washington Post, as the focus on the rest of 2024  is on what will the new US Senate look like, who is in majority, and who is in minority after November. A small faction in his Republican party opposed McConnell's bipartisan compromise. McConnell says after 17 years in the US Senate, that one has to remember what Harry Truman said. Truman America's post war president in 1950's said if you want a friend in Washington, buy a dog. Yet the Post also says the two McConnell and Schumer worked closely for 4 months to negotiate the bipartisan compromise on immigration to close the border. The first time the two sides have come  this close in this century says the Washington Post. Looking at the 22 Republisenators that supported McConnell and voted for the aid to Ukraine one finds most are senior and the majority of the senators with the most experience, compared to a small faction of newcomers without anywhere near the same experience. This is why the dissension in Congress can also be seen as not telling the whole story, when the most experienced people in the Senate and the House of both parties have come together on the big issues even when the fringes of both are engaged in unconstructive confrontation. You could see that when the younger J.D. Vance of Ohio addressed the heads of all the major US banks this past week in a Congressional Senate hearing and the difference when the more experienced Van Hollen of Maryland talked to the same banking heads. And when Senator Tillis of North Carolina one of the older experienced Senate Republicans made a strong plea for aid to Ukraine on the House floor and in his earlier support for the bipartisan change to asylum and parole immigration laws in the US. A broad center is emerging around coming together, around the most experienced people in the US Congress that sets the country in the right direction.   ...

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A change in the union voting rules authorized by the National Mediation Board which helps unionization efforts at airlines- with an impact on Delta Airlines- is holding up the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration's funding reauthorization bill in Congress. With Congress in recess some of the FAA work in modernization of airport navigation systems will come to an halt. Normally FAA funding is made for the long term for a number of years but the last such funding bill expired in 2007. Since then the FAA has operated using 20 extensions because of Congressional differences.

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Senator Daniel Inouye, Japanese American from Hawaii, is the second longest serving U.S. senator in its history. He came to Washington in 1959 as the first Japanese American elected to Congress. He was elected senator from Hawaii in 1962, and he has served over 50 years as U.S. senator. As a premedical student at the University of Hawaii, Inouye decided in 1943 to join a Japanese American regiment, the 442nd Regimental Combat Team. He was wounded in Italy and received the Distinguished Service Cross, Bronze Star Medal and the Purple Heart for bravery. He met Bob Dole in a military hospital in Michigan and both senators followed a path of law school and service in the Senate. Inouye attended George Washington Law School graduating in 1952. In 1955 Democrats swept out the Republicans in Hawaii who controlled state politics and were tied to the sugar interests. Inouye was elected to the state legislature that year and went onto the U.S. Congress.

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Greg Ip of the WSJ provides this exceptional report offering readers remarkable clarity on what the Republican Tax Law does- its high and low points.  High Points 1. It reduces the corporate tax rate to bring it in line with other advanced industrialized countries. The corporate tax rate in Germany and Japan is 30%, in the UK it is 19%. For 5 years businesses can write off capital equipment immediately instead of depreciating over a couple of years. This could boost investment and growth. 2.  The law takes aim at deductions that led to distortions. It limits the mortgage interest deduction, and caps the deduction for state and local taxes. This removes the incentive to pay more for homes that exacerbated the housing crisis in 2008. The Alternative Minimum Tax is largely removed. The Low Points 1. The biggest drawback is that lawmakers did not properly fund the tax cuts. Of the 10 costliest tax breaks nine were not touched, including employer health insurance, retirement savings, capital gains. Only the state and local taxes deduction was reduced. And a new tax deduction  was created, a 20% tax deduction for small business (proprietors and partnerships) paying taxes on their individual tax returns. Taxes on the wealthy or value added taxes, reducing tax breaks, is how other advanced industrialized countries paid for the corporate tax cuts, but did not happen here. Additional economic growth  to generate added tax revenues is the way Republicans in Congress say this is funded. Yet this is a questionable assumption as Britain reduced the corporate tax rate to 19% without seeing a surge in economic growth, as Greg Ip pointed out in an earlier WSJ article. At best the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates $500 billion over a decade in added revenues from added growth leaving $1 trillion to be added to the deficit. The WhartonPenn Budget Model (WPBM) estimates only $140 to $367 bill from the additional economic growth resulting in added tax revenues. Under this model only 0.03 to 0.08 percent added U.S. economic growth per year is expected from the Republican Tax Cuts. Such a situation would be bad  for the U.S. as the gradual improvement in Debt to GDP ratio to 78% following the financial crisis of 2008 would be sharply reversed taking the ratio to 97% by 2027. An unsustainable trajectory which will require tax increases in a few years and hurt investment in education, health and infrastructure into the future. This is what worries many experts most on both sides of the political spectrum today about what the Republican Congress has pushed through for a legislative "victory." This is why experts believe this is not serious tax reform and will require a new effort after 2019.   ...

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New legislation introduced in the U.S. Congress by Senators Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden giving fast track and trade promotion authority to president Obama faces intense opposition from Democratic Party members of Congress. Only about a dozen House Democrats are considered to be supporting the legislation. Senator Schumer says "I don't believe in these agreements anymore, I've changed." Senator Warren on the left opposes the legislation. Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania says the legislation "as paving the way for another Nafta style deal that costs jobs." The deal if it passes the Senate, would face Republican opposition in the House where 50 or more Republicans are reported to be against the fast track approach and giving too much authority to president Obama without Congressional input. Fast track legislation would allow free trade pacts such as TPP to pass Congress without amendments or procedural delays. Labor groups and auto, other manufacturing companies, oppose the legislation because of the impact on manufacturing, West Coast groups in IT industries favor the legislation. Projections made by Petri, Plummer and Zhao at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, show the impact of Trans Pacific Pact (TPP) free trade pact would be $109 billion in added manufacturing imports to the U.S. to 2025 and $ 53 billion in exports, a net U.S. unfavorable of $56 billion. For IT and services sector the added U.S. exports to 2025 are projected at $42 billion and imports at $8 billion, for net $34 billion. U.S. favorable. Because of the dominant position of the U.S. in IT how much of this $42 billion might still happen without TPP. Other societal impacts also figure in the discussion, such as which sector needs the largest help and impacts the largest number of Americans for a sustained economic recovery in the future. ...

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The mysterious disappearance of $1.2 billion from customer accounts at MF Global. Jan Corzine, CEO of MF Global, former governor of New Jersey, former senior executive at Goldman Sachs, tell the U.S. Congress he has no idea what happened to the money.

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China is still interested in a trade deal with the U.S. even after Mr. Trump signed a bill passed by Congress that it criticized as interference in its internal affairs. Mr. Trump's signing statement gave China an opening to continue its persistent effort to seek a trade deal that would lessen the effect of tariffs on its economy. It mentioned "constitutional authorities with respect to foreign relations," and stated Mr. Trump had signed the bill "out of respect for Mr. Xi, China and Hong Kong." This has credibility because Mr. Trump has consistently supported an effort to bring a peaceful end to protests and any efforts to that end that Mr. Xi has and would continue to make. Both sides see the role of the biggest economies in the trading system as too significant to be affected by different views on Hong Kong, as long as mutual respect is sustained.  

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Daniel Henninger of the WSJ Editorial Board says even if a Republican is elected president it would be a question of 4 more years of what? The big problem today he says is the small number of legislators in the US House of Representatives, about 20 in the Freedom Caucus, that are opposed to the government operating unless they get their way. The result is that independent Speakers of the Republican controlled House, with Republicans having a slim majority, are unable to get elected, and the Speaker elected is a relative newcomer Mike Johnson of Louisiana, who entered Congress as recently as 2017. The new Speaker has said the legislation passed by a bipartisan group of Senators in the US Senate 70-30 for aid to Ukraine is "dead on arrival." Result an impasse with some saying this is the most ineffective Congress ever. In this situation if a Republican is elected president says Henninger he can do little because a loss of even one legislative branch to Democrats the House or the Senate would leave America where it started- in an impasse for 2024-2028. For this reason he says even though Mr. Trump said he would do great things there was little he could point to in his vision for the future, and little he could do just by signing executive orders that would later be reversed.  ...

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The US midterm elections as seen from Europe. This headline in FR24 says Mr. Trump's grip over the party is waning. In Pennsylvania's crucial Senate seat Trump supported an affluent TV health show host Mr. Oz who failed to beat a small town mayor Mr. Fetterman who turned this into a scrappy contest in every county in Pennsylvania. Fetterman saying he would fight for workers and families every step of the way. In race after race for governors and for Congress many of the more Trump loyal candidates did not do as well against Democrats who had learned that they need to put up a determined and scrappy fight for the working class and families.

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China's growth will slow to about 3% in 2022 as the decisions made at the Central Economic Work Conference that ended on December 10 were to emphasize economic stability as the overriding goal. The goal of discouraging speculation in housing with the slogan housing is for living will remain in place in 2022. The goal of controlling surging debt that poses a serious risk to the economic future of China will also remain in place. The external environment remains uncertain and getting complicated with a change in the US and German governments in 2021 and shifts in policies.

A party congress will take place in 2022 in addition to the Beijing Winter Olympics.