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The WSJ Dollar Index tracks the U.S. dollar's performance against 16 other currencies. It surged by 12% in 2014 with a strengthening U.S. dollar. The rise in the dollar is likely to adversely affect the 15% of U.S. GNP that comes from exports and the $200 billion plus tourism industry in the U.S.

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Matteo Renzi, recently elected chief of Italy's ruling Democratic party, is likely to be the next prime minister as current prime minister Letta resigns. Letta's administration had come under increasing criticism from business and public opinion about the slow pace of economic changes in Italy. Italy's 2 trillion debt, or about $2.7 trillion, at 130% of GDP, and the declining GDP with little or no economic growth, is a problem for the eurozone. At the current pace of economic change the IMF forecast estimates only 0.5% annual growth in GDP till 2018. Foreign direct investment 2005-2011 is about one third of the eurozone average, according to the IMF, and Italy has failed to attract foreign investment for the last two decades with its weak political system and lack of competitiveness. By comparison Spain has seen an increase in exports and increasing foreign investment as it positions itself for a recovery. The austerity measures adopted by the Monti and Letta adminstrations in 2011-2013 helped to improve confidence in capital markets and lower borrowing rates, however this is clearly not the answer to Italy's problems of slow or no growth in the economy for the last decade. This is the problem Matteo Renzi, the 39 year old Mayor of Florence, is pushing to tackle as the mood in the country calls for aggressive action. Renzi's economic advisor is Filippo Taddei, who has a doctorate from Columbia University. He says at the core the issues are about what kind of "productive identity" Italy should have. Taxation that promotes higher rates of business investment is needed to promote growth, and creating a business climate that encourages investment in human capital and new technology. Payroll and business taxes take up about two thirds of a company's earnings leaving less for investment. Renzi is planning to take the centre left Democratic party in a new direction, "the road less travelled," as he put it in a televised speech, with innovative solutions including pro-market approach. As a first step he negotiated a deal with former premier Berlusconi for electoral reforms that would give a party or coalition winning electoral support a strong mandate to make and execute policy, without being hobbled in the way previous administrations were in the post war period. Lucrezia Reichlin, former head of research at the ECB, and Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a former member of the ECB executive council, are candidates to be the economics minister in the Renzi administration....

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Summer tourism is helping support a second wave of the pandemic. This report says Croatia is a case study on how the opening of tourism can trigger a second wave. Because Croatia depends on tourism and Croatia had controlled coronavirus cases in May, the government decided to open its coastline areas to tourists from Europe. These tourists returned home with the infection and spread the virus. Clubs and bars were allowed to reopen for the summer season after the lockdown in April along the Adriatic coast attracting visitors. With 500 miles of coastline and Mediterranean climate, ancient towns and affordable stay, Croatia is crowded with tourists. In 2019 21 million visitors came here according to the Croatia Tourist Board. On Italian visitor from Parma cited here says she found crowded parties and bustling bars and restaurants where hardly anybody kept social distancing and wore masks. People in shops and bars she says told people they did not need to wear masks. The governments in Europe were keen on making up for the economic costs of the pandemic and opened the internal borders of the European Union in June. The opening of resorts in the sunbelt of Europe in Spain and Portugal has led to the spike in cases in Madrid and other cities in Spain. The same is happening in France. But vigilance dropped especially in Croatia where little or no restrictions were visible. Not only were bars allowed to open but the social distancing rules and mask rules were never practiced. Some Croatians call it incomprehensible. It has led to the spike in Germany, Czech Republic and Austria. The Koch Institute says 12% of all new German cases are traceable to Croatia. It is now a fact that international travel is a way the coronavirus accelerates. Governments in France, Germany, and the UK which are not especially dependent on tourism have the option to encourage people to stay in their home countries and remove this cause of acceleration while keeping shops and offices open so that business and jobs are preserved. For people hurt by lack of employment in the hospitality industry and others with lost wages from being in an occupation that acts to accelerate the virus it is a better option to offer financial assistance than to end up closing offices and shops in another partial lockdown. Opening bars helped accelerate the pandemic in California after the lockdown with steeply rising numbers of new cases. Educating the public to the extent that it should be about the dangers is also missing.    ...

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Eurobarometer Survey conducted by the European Commission on what people say about staying inside the European Union show increasing support inside the UK and inside member countries of the EU. In a survey done in March 2019, Eurobarometer Survey involving 1000 people in each of the 28 countries of the EU shows 53% of respondents in the UK supporting Remaining in the European Union, 35% Leave , and 12% undecided. Asked whether Britain had made the right choice to leave the EU in the referendum 54% of respondents said Britain made the wrong choice, only 38% said yes. There is a definite shift in sentiment that reflects the way the changes in the EU since the referendum was held- with only a trickle of immigration to Europe and now return of some refugees to their home countries, economic aid to African countries to reduce migrants. The economies of Europe that struggled through austerity policies such as Spain have show strong growth of 3% over 3 years, and of Portugal and Greece recovering. News at the time of austerity policies, uncontrolled immigration to Europe, affected public sentiment at the time of Britain's first referendum on EU membership. In the EU countries there is a definite upturn in sentiment- 66% would vote to remain in the EU, only 17% would vote to leave. The chaoic Brexit process in the UK has also led to the upturn. 68% of respondents in the EU countries said their countries had benefited from membership in the European Union, the largest support seen in 25 years. ...

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As appliance maker Fagor goes into bankruptcy with $1.16 billion in debt during Spain's long downturn, 1800 workers lose their jobs. Unemployment in the Basque town of Mondragon in northern Spain where Fagor is located, is up from 15% to 22%. Fagor was founded in 1955 and sold refrigerators, washing machines and televisions. Sales were 14 billion euros in 2012. An injection of 300 million euros from other members of the Mondragon co-op network and 80 million euros from workers failed to prevent the factories from closing. Decisions for international expansion with the acquisition of a French appliance maker created problems for Fagor because of the long economic downturn in the home base. Failure to move jobs to emerging markets with lower costs hurt Fagor, as Whirlpool and Electrolux moved jobs to China and other developing countries. Fagor's unique co-op structure of worker ownership made it difficult to move jobs outside Spain and France, and issuing new shares for capital is not possible under the co-op structure. ...

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This is huge- for Germany, for France, and for the European Union. After initial hesitation and a decade of not looking ahead, Germany under Angela Merkel is finally not just looking ahead to its vision for Germany but doing this as a part of the larger European community. And the European Central Bank after its initial lack of community spirit, is paving the way with its own actions for the Europe wide recovery with a significant increase in lending to EU countries.  Germany's finance ministry has agreed to spend 130 billion euros on more than 50 initiatives to promote growth in Germany. No longer is the government looking at the car industry as it did in the past. It is looking beyond to what Merkel calls the "profound upheaval" coming from climate change and digitisation. For Merkel after the changes caused by the pandemic something more had to be done- "We just could'nt introduce a traditional stimulus package. It had to be done with an eye to the future, so that is what we especially emphasized."  This also brings together France's Macron and Germany's Merkel in a combined effort to bring Europe up to face the future with confidence. It is amazing how the pandemic has changed minds in Europe. From the long drawn out period since 2008 when traditional policy ideas and austerity thinking prevailed, to the idea today that this is no way to face the future with confidence for Europe to be back on its own feet, for hope to return. Instead of partnering in austerity with the Dutch and the Swedes, the finance ministry is now looking to France, Italy and Spain, considering the common pain of the core European countries during the pandemic and looking to the future.  Merkel moved to circumvent the traditional Bundestag's refusal to permit debt sharing  across the euro area by producing 500 billion euros of grants for hard hit businesses across the European Union. As Macron says it was a necessary  step- " What is sure is that this 500 billion euros will not be repaid by the beneficiaries.... We are proposing to do real transfers (of money) ... that's a major step." Forecasts from Capital Economics and other forecasters show the European Union's major economies of France, Italy and Germany rebounding quickly in 2021 after the blow in 2020, in a V shaped recovery with growth of close to 6% in France, and higher in Italy because of the bigger hit taken there than Germany. The strong U.S. jobs report with addition of 2.5 million jobs for May shows that the rebound can be sharp upward swing if the policy, will and community spirit is summoned up by leaders and people, no matter what happened in the past decade. It is also based on having the right spirit that knows about investing where it really counts for the people - in infrastructure, health, public services, and avoiding the misallocation of resources and spending that happened before. ...

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Sofia Diego from the Southern European region of Spain and Portugal, says the idea of a multi-speed European Union as put forward by some in Brussels, including Jean-Claude Juncker, is not the answer- because at some point it makes the whole exercize of a united Europe futile with some countries choosing to ignore the very ideal of European unity. In fact she says we have come too far in that direction and it is necessary to pause and reflect what this means. France's leading presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron has called for a closer union as a better solution to eurozone financial stability with a tighter union. German public opinion and other opinion in the EU does not favor more concessions following Brexit. This opinion from a Southern European country shows how young people especially have developed a new attitude and feeling of togetherness as the European generation. Young people from all parts of Europe have a changed attitude compared to previous generation, and this is a valuable experience that needs to be nurtured with closer interaction to take the EU experiment to the next stage. ...

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Renewed warnings about the bubble in housing prices in China. Earlier warnings came from Krugman, Lardy, John Taylor. This one comes from Nomura economists Zhiwei Zhang and Wendy Chen. Could the government's action to curb rising housing prices not be adequate leading to a financial crisis as early as 2014, is the question posed by Zhang and Chen. They cite the rise of housing prices by 84% from 2001 to 2006, before the financial crisis of 2008 in the U.S., using the Case-Shiller housing price index. One problem- the government statistics may have underestimated the extent of the bubble. China's official index shows housing prices rising 113% in major cities from 2004 to 2012. Zhang and Chen say this is much smaller than the actual rise because it includes older, lower quality housing property. They cite an academic paper that adjusts for this and finds prices jumping by 250% in the period 2004 to 2009. Another problem is that China's housing prices growth slows after government action but then resumes the growth, leaving the risk exposure at the high level as before. Because the local governments are tied up in the housing bubble the problem would hit the banking system. About 14.1% of the outstanding bank loans are to local government financing vehicles, and 6.2% to property developers, according to Nomura economists. The declining potential growth rate in China means there is less room for bad loans to be absorbed by hyper growth levels than in the past. Errors in policy can magnify the risk including loosening monetary policy and exacerbating the bubble at the wrong time. In the absence of errors the risks still remain requiring the sale of public assets to bail out local governments and banks. The argument made by Krugman and other economists has been that China is not immune to the risks of a housing bubble going bad, in any way less than Sweden, the U.S., Spain and other countries, requiring bailouts of banks....

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Analysts and experts says Turkey faces a debt bubble like that facing Spain and Ireland. The budget deficits in Spain and Ireland were considered manageable before the banking crises in the two countries. Turkey's short term borrowing- most of the $221 billion in outside financing needed for the private sector in 2013 is in short term loans. The large current account deficit and rate of growth in credit approaching IMF warning indicators are a problem. Volatile capital inflows could reverse as investors look for safe havens with the continuing street protests in Istanbul. Earlier currency crises in 1993 and 2001 were currency crises from volatile capital inflows. Turkey's central bank is trying to manage this situation and has $100 billion in currency reserves. But it is the hidden buildup of external debt by banks and companies in Turkey that worries analysts like Richard Segal at Jefferies bank in London. A $400 billion public spending plan, over 50% of Turkey's $770 billion GDP, is being prepared by the Erdogan government for the 100th anniversary of the founding of the modern Turkish state in 1923, showing that the scale of public spending is not under control. Analysts say at some point the huge credit bubble will burst, as it has in other countries including Spain, where the central bank appeared to have things under control. The street protests add political risk to the increasing risk for emerging markets with the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy shift to increasing interest rates....

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Remittances to developing countries are an important part of the social safety net in these countries. They are spent quickly so they help support food and housing costs, help reduce the impact of an economic downturn, and leave more money for health and education expenses. Remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean were at about $69 billion for 2007 and 2008. Now these remittances are declining. Mexico's declined by 12% in January 2009, Columbia suffered a16% drop, Brazil a14% decline, Guatemala and El Salvador a 8% decline. For countries like Guatemala remittances at $4.3 billion are ahead of coffee, and sugar, and 10% of the people some 1.35 million live in the USA, And 3.5 million people in Guatel=mala depend on these remittances. Any appreciation of the US dollar cushions the decine in colume of remittances. Ecuador has a dollarized economy and has been hit hard. That is because it has alarge population in SPain, and Spain is one of the hardest hit economies, and the euro has declining versus the dollar. Low skilled professions in which these people work, in construction, manufacturing, hotels and restaurants, are oftent he hardest hit. Migrants are stayingput in these countries even turning doen incentives like those in Spain of lump sum payments to return home, and tend to be resilient, working odd jobs and longer hours and making do with less to tide over abad period....

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The crisis facing investment bank Jefferies Group about the extent of its holdings of European sovereign debt. Jefferies faces rumors about its financial condition. The desperate effort of CEO Handler to contain the crisis by listing online its holdings of debt by country and maturity with every ID number for every bond to show that it was not using credit default swaps to hedge investments. Shares of Jefferies Group fell 20% in October and 60% for 2011. As a safety measure Handler sold off $1.1 billion of sovereign debt of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain in November, and continued to reduce its exposure during the last week of November 2011. The collapse of MF Global for making large bets on European sovereign debt followed by crisis in market confidence was the background in which Jefferies Group fought for survival.

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In 2013 growth shows signs of strengthening in the U.S. and the eurozone countries see improvement from the severe recession in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and weakness in Italy. Developing countries see growth slow down to about 5% in India, 7% in China and 2% in Brazil. Growth improvement in Japan. Overall the situation appears to be reversing with growth picking up in the developed countries and slowing in developing countries and emerging markets. This was also reflected in equity markets performance with U.S. and European stock markets showing strong performance and emerging markets weak or declining performance.

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Reflections on Spanish democracy, 34 years after free elections following the Franco regime. No new solutions to problems of high unemployment (reaching 5 million "paradores" or unemployed as a recent front page headline in extra large print in the paper Cinco Dias declared) from the Socialist party and the Partido Popular. And a sense that the country is on autopilot, as decisions are being made by the EU on recapitalizing banks and other economic issues without a significant voice from the Zapatero administration.

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African continent debt reached $1.1 trillion in 2024. About 900 million people live in African countries where interest payments on debt exceed money spent on healthcare and education. In Nigeria external debt is $40 billion, in Kenya $35 billion and Uganda $12 billion.  Take Nigeria with 220 million people. 40% of the revenue collected goes to meet interest payments on debt. For many African countries there is zero per capita income growth for a decade. During the 2010 crisis as interest rates reached new lows US and European Reagan era intellectuals including Democrats encouraged African countries to borrow at low rates and banks loosened restrictions putting more African countries into debt buildup borrowings. As interest rates went up the cost of paying the debt accumulated required more loans at higher interest rates. Nigeria paid a premium over that of 10% for a loan of $2 billion just for interest payments. The debt crisis means African currencies depreciate reducing purchasing power.  With war in Ukraine and Covid prices of food and energy rose. Only the strong and disciplined leadership and rapid industrialization provided breathing room as with Modi in India, Jinping in China, the African continent and Latin America lacked this and are feeling the pain. ...

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This editorial in Der Spiegel magazine sees something positive emerging from the current state of politics in Germany with the fragmentation in political parties. It says this situation is something that is happening for some time now. In the Netherlands there are a number of parties working together in a coalition government. And in France the Macron movement swept away the old parties. Something similar is also happening in Italy with the Five Star Movement as elections approach in March 2018. This may be a positive development in that the days of 100 percent convention votes, and of career politicians who move up the ranks from one political committee to another, are over. Voters are acting in individualistic way, don't trust the elites and old big tent parties with career politicians who may not be responsive to people's needs.  Young people are eager for more participation, and this may be a good thing, says Der Spiegel. It points out that not just parties like AfD are gaining as a result. SPD support dropped to 16 percent in one poll same as AfD. The Christian Lindner's Free Democrats in Germany also are benefitting,Macron in France is benefitting, Sebastian Kurz in Austria is benefitting. Their parties they prefer to call as "movements" with some marketing and political platforms that appeal to young people. Macron's movement moved aside the old political system and brought in younger people, revitalizing the decaying political system. The conclusion for Der Spiegel is that this change is not entirely good or bad, its a challenge. Our focus should not be on propping up obsolete structures, breathing new life into old political structures could be a good thing with new younger voters looking for participation. So don't be afraid of voters. ...

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This NYT analysis of fund raising by the Republican and Democratic parties for the 2020 election campaign shows Republicans hardly raising any money from people with incomes over 250,000 and very little from incomes over $200,000 with most funding coming from the base white working class and lower and upper middle class. For Democrats fund raising is significant at the levels of income over $200,000. Geographically the Democrats get most of their funding from the east and west coast areas.  This reflects the changes in the parties starting in the the 2008 elections when higher income groups in software, finance, and in professions of law and medicine and Silicon Valley tech shifted to Democrats. The Democrats also held onto minority votes. In 2016 this changed with a sharp turn with tech on the west coast and finance professionals on the east coast shifting to the Democrats. The PPP agreement under Obama favored tech over the auto industry, and renewal fossil fuels such as solar were favored over the oil industry and fracking. In 2016 this helped shift the votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania to Republicans. Older manufacturing industries, oil and fracking were supported by Republicans who pushed back against ceding global dominance in manufacturing to China. By 2020 these changes are now entrenched with white working class voters in industries decimated and communities destroyed by foreign imports mainly from China, supporting Republicans. Republicans under Trump have made regaining the manufacturing leadership of the U.S. that was the situation after World War II, a top priority for the U.S.  The minority vote shifted with Hispanics moving towards Republicans to a much larger degree than before. The urban rural divide is similar to Europe where the similar impact of foreign imports mainly from China have destroyed older industries and led to sharp decline in older towns and communities outside major cities. This is the situation facing the U.S. and Britain, France, Italy Spain, and Poland. Germany as a manufacturing country dependent on exports is also affected but to a lesser degree. The unwholesome aspect of this is that the larger urban areas are divorced from the rest of the country  and rural small towns, smaller cities. In some form reintegration has to take place. The vast majority of the working class classified in today's terminology as the less educated lacking a college degree and white are  paradoxically with Republicans, and the wealthy professionals and industries in software, finance with Democrats. Nothing makes this more evident than a quick look at the map of the U.S. with blue on the opposite coasts for Democrats and mostly red in between and in the south. This is unprecedented in American history. A rising tide that lifts all boats in the U.S. and the return of the U.S. to the position it held after World War II could change this in the next decade. ...

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Spain's economy contracted 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the Spanish central bank. Unemployment reached 23% in January, 2012. For workers under 25 years age the unemployment rate is 48.6%. The new government of prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, plans to pass labor reform legislation to give companies flexibility to hire new workers, lower dismissal costs and make hiring easier. The economic crisis has a larger effect say experts, because of rigid labor laws. This make it easier to layoff workers than adopt alternatives of lower wages, and which make firms hesitant to rehire. One example is higher dismissal costs- the cost of unfair dismissal is 45 days of pay for each year worked, and 20 days for fair dismissal, which is hard to prove under Spanish laws.

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The emphasis on clarity in communicating monetary policy taken by Ben Bernanke at the U.S. Federal Reserve. This is of special significance as political parties in the U.S. face tough fiscal cliff negotiations in Dec. 2012. The Fed laid out its plan on interest rates in clear and precise terms, giving for the first time a specific figure on unemployment of 6.5%. The Fed plans to keep rates low till unemployment drops to 6.5%, as long as inflation is subdued at about 2-2.5% and long term inflation expectations remain low. A similiar approach was adopted by Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank by clearly communicating intentions for buying bonds of Spain and Italy in July 2012 with his statement "Believe me this will be enough." This contrasts with the style of central bank chief Shirakawa at the Bank of Japan which has led to serious criticism in Japan.

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Productivity as measured by GDP per hour worked was $44 in Italy in 2009. It has remained the same as in 1999. In the EU-15 (first 15 members of the EU) the GDP per hour worked increased from 47.9 in 1999 to 49.0 in 2009. For the U.S. this GDP in the same period went up from $56.0 to $58.0. This shows the lack of productivity growth in Italy. With the current focus on Italy's slow economic growth efforts are underway to make changes that would increase growth. GDP growth in Italy was 1.3% in 2010, compared to 1.8% for the eurozone, according to Eurostat. Italy's Minister for Public Administration Renato Brunetta says he would like to cut that gap in half. Some of the measures in the recently passed $40 billion spending cuts package, include efforts to help the underdeveloped southern region. This includes cutting red tape for real estate developers, and streamlining accounting for business. Italy's growth comes mainly from exports that make up about one fourth of GDP. But this comes from lower tech sectors such as textiles, chemicals and machinery, where it must compete with China and other countries. In May 2011 industrial output was up by 1.8% in Italy,compared to 7.5% for Germany. Another problem is the large and inefficient public sector and the gap between protected state workers and a younger generation- with one in three Italians 15-24 unemployed....

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At the height of the Eurozone crisis in December 2011, David Brooks points out that it is important not to forget what the Germans are saying in this crisis. They are arguing for truth in accounting, which the government in Greece failed to do, and which may have more to do with negative opinion in the media and with the public in Germany about Greece than any other factor. They are arguing against speculative excesses that enabled Greece to borrow recklessly. And they are making the argument that the only way to put the finances of the eurozone on a sound basis is to have the financial discipline that is necessary for a sound currency. Anthony Faiola pointed out recently that one estimate for tax evasion in Italy is $340 billion a year- Washington Post, 11/25/2011. Greece has a similiar problem, which needs to be addressed. This view has credibility and the backing of every principle of sound financial practices, irrespective of country or region. For ordinary Germans who have gone through years of wage restraint during the period of high unemployment, their attitude is captured in one German workers response to Greece's situation - when she said there are "poor children in Germany also." Years after reunification were a difficult experience for Germany, and left parts of the country still affected by the experience. The period of high unemployment is still a fresh memory, as the economic recovery is fairly recent. There is a feeling that the situation is precarious, depending on exports, as the 2009 downturn showed. These facts remain even when one considers the criticism levelled at Germany. Germany benefitted from the bubble in the economies of Southern Europe through surging exports- from a currency that was undervalued in relation to neighbors- because of the common currency. German banks lent heavily to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, along with French and British banks, and bear responsibility for reckless lending and not doing due diligence for loans to Greece and other countries. Germany also carries the burden of memories of hyperinflation in the 1920's, and the sense along with France that partnership is necessary for peace in Europe. Germany's position on austerity measures also has one underlying weakness - if this leads to shrinking economies in southern Europe in the name of fianncial discipline, then the plan fails as tax revenues decline and budget deficits increase. Given this experience Germany faces the challenge of convincing neighbors of the need for good governance and sound spending practices for long term stability of the currency, even as it leads the effort for providing short term funding. In the short run this reaps criticism for Germany, including criticism for some members such as Greece having to leave the euro as a way to regain competitiveness and growth. Experts have suggested that this would be a better option for Greece than a shrinking economy after strong austerity measures, and the referendum proposed by former prime minister Papandreou on strict austerity measures is likely to have gone in this direction. ...

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Greece prime minister Mitsotakis in this interview tells Reuters on May 15, that he hope the next four years will be years of rapid growth for Greece, but also one that will limit inequalities and make sure that Greece supports its most vulnerable. Greece was hit hard with higher energy costs after the war in Ukraine. It was not long ago in 2010 that Greece was daily in the news with reports of the eurozone debt crisis that affected Greece, Ireland, Spain. That crisis wiped out more than 25% of its GDP. He is credited with having managed the economy through the period after Syriza a rival party almost put Greece out of the eurozone. Lack of eurozone controls on debt of its members, lack of transparency in Greece's financial affairs were severe handicaps.  Today after a decade of austerity that it took to get its financial affairs in order including tackling over hiring in the government burreaucracy, lax financial controls, ordinary Greeks face high inflation and low incomes. Mitsotakis has raised the pensions and raised the minimum wage by 20% to 780 euros to help Greeks with the cost of living crisis. He has spent $50 billion euros in relief measures since 2020. Economic growth after reaching 5.9% in 2022 will slow to 2.3% in 2023. Mitsotakis addressed both Houses of the US Congress last year when Speaker Pelosi was in office. His image is dimmed somewhat by a surveillance of the Opposition ranks that was discovered recently and is covered in an accompanying article in the WSJ on May 19, 2023 shown on this page. The elections in 2023 are expected to bring Mitsotakis back in government with his party getting about 31% of the vote but lacking a majority in parliament. ...