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Somini Sengupta reports on the Green Revolution and its aftemath from Jalandhar (Jullundur in Hindi) in the Indian Punjab wheat belt. Problems facing farmers here are the shrinking water supplies as more of the table water is exhausted through pumping from tube wells, lack of government investment in agriculture, the low grain prices paid to farmers by the government, and poor storage and transportation to market. Also affecting the suuply of grain and lentils and agricultural produce is the progress of industrialization as more farmers either grow crops that are in demand in the cities like baby corn instead of wheat, and the farmers who sell of land for industry or commercial use. Only 40% of the land is irrigated so too much depends on the monsoon and other rainfall, which is why India's large agricultural component in the economy affects the growth rates depending on the monsoon rains. What happens here affects food supplies worldwide and prices. When India is self sufficient or able to export there is less pressure on prices. Two years ago the situation deteriorated and India imported about 7 million tons for its grain stockpile. Since then the government raised prices for grains the situation has improved, farmers planted more wheat and sold more supplies to the government for building up buffer stocks of grain. Now the emphasis shifting to USA-India cooperation in the field of agriculture for a second Green Revolution. Agreements for the agricultural improvements were signed as part of the agreements signed for cooperation during President Bush's vist to India. The government of Manmohan Singh was elected for another 4 year term and is committed to helpiong Indian farmers. A more organized funded effort is needed especially with the economic crisis. The rural areas are the fastest growing part of the Indian economy. See link. ...

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For US automakers each component of the savings above may cover all or more of the $2.5 billion in tariffs some of which may be returned in rebate form to the automakers over 4 years. For example GM CFO is cited as as saying the shift in EV's alone could reduce losses by $2 billion in 2025. That more than makes up for GM's  $1.1 billion losses from tariffs shown in this WSJ report. It is more accurate to say foreign automakers in the US pay $9 billion in tariffs if they don't raise prices, Toyota alone will take on $3 billion in tariffs. And American makers Ford, GM, Chrysler Stellantis pay $2.5 billion of which some of it will be returned to the automakers inthe form of favorable policies to increase market share of US automakers with the 15% on imported cars and savings from not having to make electric vehicles in volumes that don't sell without the charging infrastructure, and savings from not having to invest on rapid conversion away from gas powered vehicles.    ...

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The need for food banks is most severe in the post industrial north of Britain. Five years of austerity measures 2009-2013 have left their mark, as have rising prices and stagnant wages. Average hourly earnings are up 7% in that period while the cost of living is up 20%. About 500,000 people are dependent on food aid, triple the number in 2012, according to the Trussell Trust, a Christian charity. A conservative MP says 1 in 5 children go to bed hungry in his constituency of Wycombe. In Hull, one in three children live under the poverty line. Food charities doing most of their work in Africa, now concentrate efforts in the north of Britain.

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The 25% auto imports tariff goes into effect April 2nd 2025. How much will it increase prices in the US for automobiles? The average is about 10%, say some experts cited in WSJ. This includes price increases on higher priced brands such as German brands BMW's and Audis, Mercedes Benz, and VW cars made in Mexico to ship into the US. It also includes European car makers including Stellantis that make cars in Europe and Mexico to ship into the US which could lose market share to American car makers who make most of their cars in the US. Ford makes 80%, GM 60%.  Overall US international Trade Commission in 2024 looked at the 25% US tariff in a study and showed 5% increase in auto prices in the US. President Trump's call to GM and Ford asking for restraint in pricing may be coupled with the government returning some of the money in tariffs revenue pool to American or foreign manufacturers investing more to make more cars in the US including to Hyundai which announced a $21 billion investment. More such investment decisions are expected from Japanese automakers. For example Subaru has capacity for 450,000 cars in Lafayette Indiana plant and sells 650,000 cars in the US. One would expect it to increase the capacity of the plant or add a new plant in the US. The Japanese government and Japanese business will have additional incentives to invest in the US because of the US support for Japan in the Asia-Pacific, US openness to give trade benefits to Japan in the post war period, incentive to make the Republican DJT plan for tariffs to work as a united Japan-US effort. This would include restraint on pricing.  Toyota is in much better financial shape than VW and has a large market share in the US which it will work protect with pricing restraint and more US investment. Only VW and German luxury car makers BMW, Mercedes may not cooperate. Yet VW sells only 300,000 cars in the US compared to 2.3 million for Toyota. BMW and Mercedes sell luxury cars where buyers could absorb the additional luxury brand cost without impacting inflation overall. Some of VW's car sales would be absorbed by American and other automakers considering VW was losing market share and nearly exiting the US market. before this. ...

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New affordability and choice in EV's in US under $40000 in 2025. Even without incentives from the government EV's remain an attractive option now that new gasoline cars cost an average of $49,000 and affordable EV's come at price range uder $40,000. In Germany VW has EV models for about $30,000 and this pricing and choice of models can be expected in the US in 2026. Mims looks at how EV's are now a realistic option for car buyers in 2025. Americans drive an average of 33 miles a day- the 300 mile range of new EV's means charging once a week is good enough. New EV batteries are better and can outlast a vehice's life. Savings from low maintenance costs can make up for any shortfalls for EV's.

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Kamala Harris describes her vision of The Opportunity Economy in an address at Wake Tech Community College in Raleigh, North Carolina. Like president Biden she wants to build America's Middle Class. When the Middle Class does well everyone does well, Biden says this many times. By contrast she said Trump's plan would cost Americans $3900 a year raising cost of living. Kamala Harris said- "And key — key to creating this opportunity economy is building up our middle class.  It is essential.  (Applause.) The middle class is one of America’s greatest strengths, and to protect it, then, we must defend basic principles — such as, your salary should be enough to provide you and your family with a good quality of life. (Applause.) Such as, no child should have to grow up in poverty.  (Applause.) Such as, after years of hard work, you should be able to retire with dignity.  (Applause.) And you should be able to join a union if you choose. Building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency, because I strongly believe when the middle class is strong, America is strong. " (Applause.) Harris described the vision of president Trump, as a complete contrast- "Now compare what Donald Trump plans to do.  He wants to impose what is, in effect, a national sales tax on everyday products and basic necessities that we import from other countries.       That will devastate Americans.  It will mean higher prices on just about every one of your daily needs: a Trump tax on gas, a Trump tax on food, a Trump tax on clothing, a Trump tax on over-the-counter medication.       And, you know, economists have done the math.  Donald Trump’s plan would cost a typical family $3,900 a year.  ...

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Protectionist sentiment in the USA is keeping tariffs high on ethanol to keep out Brazilian ethanol. Some of the arguments used for keeping it out are concern for the Brazilian rainforests, for food prices, for labor. Are these concerns real or just a way of keeping out imported ethanol by farm lobbies in the USA. Brazilian ethanol packs 8.2 times as much energy as the energy used to make it compared to just 1.5 times for corn ethanol, according to the Woodrow Wilson Center. It is grown in Sao Paulo state or the northeast miles away from the Amazon so it is not deforesting the Amazon. About 65% of it is grown on land that was previously pasture, the rest was used for other crops according to Conab, a government agency. Also sugar cane occupies only 7 million hectares or 17 million acres of Brazilian farmland compared to 200 million hectares for cattle ranching so it is not pushing cattle ranchers into the Amazon. So it does not have a noticeable impact on food or beef prices. And sugar cane production may benefit from higher yield varieties with more research. In 2005 of the 440,000 workers, 453 died, 17 were killed in accidents according to a study by a researcher at the the University of sao Paulo. In the same year of the 2.16 million workers in other branches of Brazilian farming, 2900 died and 135 were killed in accidents, so the situation in the sugarcane industry is not much worse than the rest of Brazilian agriculture. Moreover cane cutting is getting mechanized. At Santelisa Vale 60% of cane cutting is mechanized. So the arguments of protectionists in the USA about environmental impact, labor situation, and others do not carry much weight. The tariff on Brazilian ethanol makes it less attractive to import ethanol from Brazil and it creates uncertainty about future imports if the prices of corn based ethanol drop in the USA. Removal of the tariff is supported by John McCain. The tariff is 54cents on each gallon of imported ethanol. Importing ethanol from Brazil would have less impact on corn supply in the USA and on on corn prices so it would put less pressure on the world food supply and world food prices. ...

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Liz Truss's 45 days in office as British prime minister is the shortest of any leader in British history. William Henry Harrison in 1847 was US president for 32 days, before he died of pneumonia. George Canning was  prime minister for 119 days before dying of tuberculosis. Alec Douglas-Home for 363 days more recently when he was replaced by Labour's Harold Wilson.  Douglas-Home in 1964 was seen as out of touch with Britain as an aristocrat in the House of Lords. Harold Wilson of Labour asked at the time how he could lead Britain for the technological revolution needed when he was "a scion (descendent)  of an effete (overrefined and ineffectual) establishment." Truss was seen as out of touch with post covid  Britain with one of seven people missing a meal in Britain and a cost of living crisis for most Britons when she announced a mini budget that did not provide assistance to struggling working families, as other Euroepan leaders were doing and instead cut taxes for higher income people. Douglas-Home abolished resale price maintenance program that prevented sharp price increases by food producers. He lost the 1964 election to Labour's Harold Wilson. Labour under Keir Starmer is in the same position today as it was in 1964 under Harold Wilson as it looks at the decline of the Conservatives. ...

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This In Depth view in The Times of the 2021 Conservative party conference in Manchester, says Boris Johnson was his old ebullient self in his conference speech rallying Tories. He is seen as not having a full grasp of the situation as schools reopen without covid precautions in place, overconfident about controlling the pandemic. He is also viewed as ignoring the impact this winter of higher gas prices, lack of enough labor for essential services, inflation and shortages of essential goods, on the British public. The general mood of the Tory conference appeared to be celebrating the Tory performance without preparing for unanticipated obstacles ahead for the British economy and for all sections of British society hit hard by the pandemic.

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Higher prices for food supplies to franchisees from Quiznos has led to losses at chain stores and store closings.

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African continent debt reached $1.1 trillion in 2024. About 900 million people live in African countries where interest payments on debt exceed money spent on healthcare and education. In Nigeria external debt is $40 billion, in Kenya $35 billion and Uganda $12 billion.  Take Nigeria with 220 million people. 40% of the revenue collected goes to meet interest payments on debt. For many African countries there is zero per capita income growth for a decade. During the 2010 crisis as interest rates reached new lows US and European Reagan era intellectuals including Democrats encouraged African countries to borrow at low rates and banks loosened restrictions putting more African countries into debt buildup borrowings. As interest rates went up the cost of paying the debt accumulated required more loans at higher interest rates. Nigeria paid a premium over that of 10% for a loan of $2 billion just for interest payments. The debt crisis means African currencies depreciate reducing purchasing power.  With war in Ukraine and Covid prices of food and energy rose. Only the strong and disciplined leadership and rapid industrialization provided breathing room as with Modi in India, Jinping in China, the African continent and Latin America lacked this and are feeling the pain. ...

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The takeaway from Calgary to go big and go bold applies to American cities. Calgary's downtown like many downtowns in large cities in the US had about 30% vacant office space. The 2014 oil price crash had already hit the city before the pandemic hit. Calgary responded with a plan to convert 6 million square feet of vacant office space into apartments. Developers were to be given $75 per square foot as an incentive out of a $200 million fund setup by the city. Calgary is now a fourth of the way through this transformation after getting broad community buy-in and support. Permitting process is less than 2 months.

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The Thai government of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra has committed to buy unmilled rice from farmers at 15,000 baht or about $500 a ton for the harvest in 2011. This is pushing up world rice prices.

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A big factor in U.S. car sales, which reached 7.5 million in 2015, exceeding the 7.3 million in 2000, is that a large portion of cars on the road were about 11 years old following the recession in 2008-2009. As Dexter Ford pointed out in a article in 2012 many car owners on the road had replaced the earlier 100,000 mile mark before buying a new car, with 200,000. This pent up demand, and the better technological features including gasoline conserving technology, gave new impetus to demand in 2013-2015. Lower gasoline prices at the pump of about $2.00 a gallon in Jan. 2016 across parts of the country made it economical to own SUV's and pickup trucks. The U.S. car companies Ford, GM and Chrysler-Fiat had sales of 2 million full size pickup in 2015, with the Ford F-150 leading. Car companies have come through a severe crisis and are taking steps to avoid a repeat of the mistakes of the past on fuel efficiency- Ford has introduced a lighter aluminium based version of the F-150 for example. Gasoline prices also provide buyers with extra money to meet car payments which now have been stretched to longer periods and lower rates by auto companies to reduce the cost burden per month. AAA says the average price in 2013 for a gallon of gas was $3.49, in 2014 at $3.34, in 2015 at $2.40. AAA says that 71% of gasoline stations sell gas at less than $2.00 in January 2016, and gas prices are likely to remain low for an extended period with lower demand from China, higher fuel efficiency going forward with stricter standards, new technology for shale oil production, and the replacement of cartel pricing by competing production from Saudis, Iran and Russia. On average Americans saved $115 billion on gasoline, or $550 per licensed driver, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report of January 6, 2016. In addition to the $550 saved the higher fuel efficiency with new technology adds a corresponding amount to savings per driver. Add to this the lower payment at low rates over longer periods and the car payment per month has been reduced significantly in a improving job market, to support car sales....

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Inadequate infrastructure, mismanagement and damage to pipelines is resulting in a energy crisis in Iran, a major oil and gas producing country. Supply is being continued to homes leading to cuts to about 40% of factories and to electricity producing plants. In Venezuela low prices of gas and mismanagement have led to waste and losses that created an energy crisis in another oil producing country. Lack of foreign investment means aging infrastructure and no updates in technology of production. Socialist administrations find their work backfiring in this way as in Venezuela, lack of experienced managers and people to run the economy leads to dire results including runaway inflation and shortages. Political rhetoric for workers disguises the problems building up in an economy that can tear the economy apart, as good relations with all countries are needed and the country's trained and experienced middle class and technical experts given an important role in development. ...

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Wha is life like for a grocer, a food store owner in a rural county in America. Frank Timberlake in this story is a former law enforcement officer running a store in Northhampton County, North Carolina. He looks after his employees, and his customers in this rural county.  Rich Square Market is the only grocery store in this town. He is all on his own as he deals with supplies of expensive Charmin toilet paper, or shortage of paper towels, and the rising price of eggs.

His worries- if one worker get sick the rest are quarantined. He has kept the store open through hurricanes, floods, yet this is tough. He jumps when he sneezes, sleeps in a separate room at home, and can't hold his wife's hand.

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The inflation rate in the eurozone showed a decline of 0.2% in December 2014, showing the first signs of deflation. This is the first sign of deflation since 2009. The unemployment rate for the eurozone remained at 11.5% in November, with the rate in Germany improving to 6.4% in Dec. from 6.5% in Nov., but unemployment reaching 13.4% in Italy. Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, points to low energy prices, and core inflation data showing that excluding energy and food prices the core inflation rate increased to 0.8% in Dec. 2014 compared to 0.7% in November 2014.

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The problems that arise when grocery stores merge and consolidate by closing stores can be seen in Portland, Oregon. As the Albertson's and Safeway's are replaced by Kroger's cities can see the effects in supply, price and quality. During a time of cost of living issues for most families and workers, cost of living action by the government is needed to maintain access to grocery store food and supplies.

13% of the US people live in a food desert, low income areas where there is limited access to grocery stores. Many of these people are Latinos in low income occupations. When companies in grocery stores business merge stores close hurting the local population. This is one piece of the cost of living stress faced by ordinary workers and families in 2024 where the government needs to take preventive action to ensure access to food supplies for communities.

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The auto industry has only itself to blame for shaping and sustaining the retrograde world it finds itself in, says Politico magazine. GM supported the Trump administration's efforts to push back the fuel efficiency rules setup earlier. With Chrysler and Ford it went a step further in getting out of cars altogether and having a line of SUV's and other vehicles. This step is seen as retrograde and a result of several possible lines of thought among the car executives in Detroit. One is that the SUV higher profits would provide a cushion as this cycle in the industry's revival comes to a close. Another is that in a situation where GM's shares are depressed while Tesla with no profits is seeing a higher valuation, this could increase its share price. This has not happened and President Trump is as critical of the layoffs of 15% and closure of plants in GM's announcement, as Democratic senator Bernie Sanders is. Still another is that GM needs to prepare for all the tech changes happening in driverless cars, new tech advances, that a move like this would better prepare itself for the new world of transportation. This remains nebulous however and GM has failed to take account of the fact that only a short time ago about half of all car buyers were still not buying SUV's. Gas prices are volatile and will continue to be so that strategy cannot be based on cheap gas prices and SUV profits.    ...

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Diesel prices are regulated and subsidized by the Indian government, but gasoline prices are deregulated since 2010, resulting in gasoline costing 64% more than diesel in India. As a result buyers are staying away from gasoline cars and shifting to diesel creating distortions in demand. The government is considering a tax on diesel cars and SUV's of between $3000 to $4600 to correct the distortion. Because lower income people woud be hurt by increasing the price of diesel it continues to be subsidized. Because of the uncertainty car manufacturers are shutting down production to reduce growing inventory of gasoline vehicles. High interest rates of 12% on car loans also reduces demand. Suzuki Maruti sales declined 6% in May 2012, Ford and GM showed sales declines of 14% and 20%. The year ending March 2012 shows Indian car sales growing only slightly by 2.2% to 2 million cars. Sales were rising at 29% only about a year ago. Gasoline costs 68 rupees a liter in New Delhi after a 11.5% increase in May 2012, compared to 41 rupees per liter for diesel. The increase in gasoline prices is a result of the government having difficulty paying the rising imports of oil, costing $141 billion for the year ending March 31, 2012. The sharp slowdown in the car industry and the problems in the energy sector have affected India's growth rate....

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ECB acts to send a signal to companies and businesses across the EU that think that inflation is on the rise and they should increase prices also and to workers and unions to moderate their demands. The idea is to to prevent inflation expectations to get embedded and to price stability in the medium term. As the EU except for Spain, Ireland and the UK, has suffered less from a decline in the housing industry and as labor markets are more rigid in the EU, the ECB thinks it has room to make an inflation statement. There is n bias for another increase ECB President Trichet stated. In the USA the slowing down of the economy may itself have an effect on inflation expectations, and having a moderating effect on inflation there. Inflation is at 4% in the EU in June and the ECB would like to see it move closer to the 2% target rate, though its unlikely that it will affect food and energy prices in the short term it does moderate inflation expectations in that union demands would be moderated and companies can see the ECB as having a credible influence on prices....

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The European automobile market staged a recovery in 2014 with sales up 5.7% to 12.6 million, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. The big gains were made by the lower cost brands such as Renault's Dacia made in Romania, and VW's Skoda made in the Czech Republic. Dacia sales increased in 2014 by 24% to 359,141 and Skoda's sales increased by 14% to 554,479. A Dacia Sandero without air conditioning, power locks or radio is priced at 7,990 euros in France compared to a better equiped Skoda Fabia at 12,640 euros and a VW Golf at 17,388, a big price difference for budget car buyers. The major brands continue to dominate with the Golf model continuing as the best selling model in Europe. GM and Ford with the Opel Corsa and Ford Fiesta also increased market share. VW's market share is 12.7%, Skoda's 4.4%.

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Brazil's ever increasing production of soyabeans and investments in Brazil by China and US's Cargill ADM result in a oversupply of soyabeans in world's markets leading to lower prices for American farmers. 70% of soyabeans imports by China were from Brazil in 2024 and Cofco state owned agricultural company in China is building a large port terminal on Brazil's coast to handle soyabeans and other exports. Trade tensions with the US mean there are no written agreements farmers can count on for soyabean exports to China. China purchased 13 million metric tons from Argentina last month and committed to buying 25 million metric tons in 2026-2028. Argentina lifted its 26% export tax for the first $7 billion in agricultural exports to bolster it's peso recently. US is turning to other markets in Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand and Europe to make up for volume lost to Brazil. For September and October there is a 45% increase in US exports in 2025 resulting from these non-Chinese buyers. No mention is made of India, yet India could in future be a significant buyer of soyabeans because of thenutritional value of soyabeans in an anti-cancer diet and the high protein content which would make Indian diets healthier. In agriculture farmers are not the ones who develop new tastes and new trends in new markets, yet this effort should be part of farmer's outreach to other nations and other cultural food habits with shifts to healthy nutrition. ...

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New laws passed by decree by Chavez that wwould send food company managers to jail if they violated government imposed price controls and power to nationalize companies in the food industry without National Assembly approval. This is because Chavez faces growing unpopularity with food price increases. Also by decree Chavez has established a National Bolivarian militia. And an anticorruption official has banned some popular opposition politicians from running in the November regional elections including Leopoldo Lopez from runnung for mayor of Caracas.