LyrArc Article Gist
This exceptional report from rural areas in France by Roger Cohen shows why the support is growing for the far right and the far left in rural areas and smaller towns outside the large cities which have suffered from high unemployment and neglected as technology and capital moved to other areas. Cohen talks to Nicholas Bay, secretary general of the National Front, who says this election is about patriotism, the nation state vs globalization, as the National Front tries to portray its opposition as being less pro-France, and less pro French culture. The centrist candidate Macron stands in front of a statue of Alexandre Dumas in Picardy, an hour northeast of Paris, and says he is for an "open patriotism" that embraces people of different origins and embraces refugees. Cohen attends a Le Pen rally in Metz, Lorraine, talks to a National Front mayor in Picardy and left party supporters in the town, talks to foreigners in the banlieu of Sevran. Cohen says a National Front victory is possible if enough voters who support the far left party of Melenchon do not vote for centrist candidate Macron, and enough voters of centre right Fillon supporting French culture and nationalism drift to Le Pen. As in the Dutch election with Moroccans derided by the far right the immigrant issue is a factor. Against this background is how events play out in the last weeks of the election. In March and April the events in the U.S. show a Trump administration moving to the centre, adopting a quieter and more constructive tone towards Mexico and immigrants. Relations with Russia have worsened after the U.S. response to the chemical attack in Syria, and the French public may now see this as a common threat to NATO and the European Union. As in the Dutch election a lot depends on the last weeks of the election and how well the centrist parties, the centre right and the centre left get their message across about what is to be gained by building anew on the foundations of the past without risking a lot on an uncertain path of referendums and exit from the European Union.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After failing to come to an agreement for early elections with the central government in Madrid, Catalan leader Puigdemont says he will put the matter of secession from Spain to the region's parliament. This makes it certain that the government in Madrid will assume emergency constitutional powers over Catalonia. Mr. Puigdemont is the head of a coalition that has 72 seats of 135 in the Catalan parliament. As this NYT report points out Mr Puigdemont heads a coalition of separatist parties that won about 48% of the vote in parliamentary elections of Catalonia in 2015. He announced a referendum in 2017 which created more uncertainty because Spain made an effort to suppress voting and many Catalans stayed away from the voting booths. Other reports show it is not clear that a majority of Catalans favor all out independence from Spain, though they oppose the way prime minister Rajoy of Spain has handled the crisis. Control of the police and broadcasters under Article 155 of the Constitution is a step Mr Rajoy now plans to take. Mr. Rajoy says it was a decision forced on Spain by the "capricious decisions" of Mr. Puigdemont, and that it endangers Spain's economic recovery from the financial crisis with high unemployment. Puigdemont faces an internal revolt inside his separatist party if he backs down, according to this report in the NYT. As a result of this Spain is likely to move ahead with constitutional backed rule by the central government over Catalonia till a solution can be found. Mr. Puigdemont's action has created the biggest crisis for Spain since it moved to democratic elections in 1978, coming at a time when national elections led to no clear winner and the economic recovery was just beginning. Public perception is that both Mr. Puigdemont and Mr. Rajoy appear to have handled the situation poorly. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The general elections of 2015 show a nation divided, with Labor strong in the north of England and the Midlands, the conservatives in the south of England, the SNP in Scotland, and the UKIP competing for votes with Labor in the north of England. The election also raised questions about seats and representation in the voting system when SNP gained 56 seats with 1.5 million votes, half the votes cast for UKIP, and UKIP gaining only 1 seat. The Conservatives won a majority of the seats, 330 seats with a third of the popular votes. Voters distrusted both the Conservatives and the Labor party but distrusted Labor more, says Malik, and decided to stay with the Conservatives. Malik reminds readers that as late as 1992, Conservatives won a third of the popular vote in Scotland, and close to half of the votes till the 1950's. Now there is only one Conservative member of parliament from Scotland. Labor suffered a severe defeat in its base in Scotland with the SNP gaining 56 of 59 seats. Labor also lost the seat that was previously held by former prime minister Gordon Brown. On the EU the election promise of prime minister Cameron to hold a referendum on Britain staying in the EU in 2017, creates more uncertainty. David Cameron put the situation in the right words- " I want to reclaim the mantle that we should never have lost, the mantle of one nation, one United Kingdom....

LyrArc Article Gist
Britain's High Court gives a ruling on November 2, 2016, that the government must consult parliament, and that parliament has to approve the plan for Brexit before invoking Article 50. This means that the government has to lay out the details of its plans which make it harder to conduct negotiations. The Conservative Party also does not have a majority in the House of Lords. Legal experts say the decision which caught the government by surprise was expected from a constitutional law standpoint which looks at whether the sovereign or parliament is supreme in making such a decision. Members of parliament in general were not in favor of leaving the European Union, making this add an element of uncertainty about Brexit. Political experts say one way out for Theresa May who earlier announced that she would invoke Article 50 by March 2017, is to call a general election. Today she has 329 seats in a 650 member parliament, with many of the MP's opposed to Brexit. May's government is expected to appeal the High Court decision to the Supreme Court. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Interviews by Robett Pollock with Iraq's Maliki and Turkey's Erdogan, and what they have to say about the future of 2 places in the Middle East that the US has a lot to do with. Erdogan proposes a new constitution for Turkey that will go to a referendum to the Turkish people. He won 47% of the vote for this party in recent elections.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the DW on Brexit shows Britain deeply divided, with older voters supporting Leave and younger voters coming out for Remain. Most of northern England and Wales coming out for Leave, and London, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds  with Scotland and Northern Ireland coming out for Remain. The failure of Labor Party to rally its supporters under Corbyn also rankles with some in the Remain campaign. Corbyn avoided joint appearances with the Remain campaign and said he was 7.5 out of ten in favor of remaining in the EU.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mr. Trump told Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar at the White House he is disappointed with the way Brexit has evolved in the three years since he supported Brexit during the election campaign. Trump said "it is tearing the country apart. Its actually tearing a lot of countries apart."  After a series of votes in the British parliament Trump told reporters he gave May some negotiating advice. "I gave the prime minister my ideas on how to negotiate. I think she would have been successful., she did'nt listen to that." So what happened? What advice did Trump give on negotiating? There are only some hints on this. Theresa May told the BBC in an interview after Trump's visit to London in July 2018- "He told me I should sue the E.U. -not go into negotiations., Sue them."  Trump made a prediction a day after the referendum to Leave saying "the E.U. is going to break up." This was at the time of the financial crisis in the European Union with problems in Greece, Spain and Portugal. Since then the economies of these countries revived. Spain has 3% growth for three years even though it faces fresh elections. In his 2000 book "The America we Deserve" Trump pointed out his sense threat the U.S. should pull back from the E.U and save millions of dollars annually. In recent years he has suggested that the E.U was "a foe"  and "it was formed as a consortium so that it could compete with the United States." The problems in Europe happened in the period 2016-2018 with divisions emerging on the issue of immigration. This wave of immigration was a result of Arab and African conflicts and lag in Africa between development and the rapidly rising population. Chancellor Merkel was ill prepared to handle this wave of immigration and in retrospect her policy did little to address the roots of the problems of immigration from North Africa, a policy later adopted when popular support for immigration of this kind and scale declined. It affected the vote for Brexit playing into deep seated doubts about the benefits of EU membership in parts of Britain.  Mr. Trump supports no-deal Brexit which was defeated by large margins in the British parliament and lacks support across all parts of society, business and political parties in Britain. Trump own sense that Brexit has divided many countries and his dialogue with the Irish prime minister must show an awareness of the views of Ireland about the hard won peace and E.U. borders in Ireland.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In all elections since 2002 Mr. Erdogan has prevailed except June 2015. Much of the support for Erdogan is a result of economic gains by Turkey including 70% rise in per capita incomes since 2003.  These gains are under threat now because of heavy dependence on foreign investment and the decline of the currency Lira from 2.15 to the dollar in 2014 to 4.50 to the dollar in June 2018, losing half its value since the election of 2014. Experts say recent developments in Turkey have dented investor confidence, with investors uncertain about Mr. Erdogan's plans. The presidential candidate most likely to face Erdogan in a runoff election if Mr. Erdogan does not get 50% of the vote on June 24 is Mr. Muharrem Ince. Ince says he sees a wind of change, saying Turks are "very tired of this one-man regime" and that unlike before the economic trouble is so severe and harder to cover. This time the opposition is better coordinated and the secular CHP Party which was once dominant after Ataturk, is running in an alliance with traditional Islamist party Saadet, and with new secular nationalist Iyi party. Erdogan has called early elections a year and half ahead of time because he sees the economic troubles are at an early stage and his AKP Party would do better now than in 18 months when the economy may be in worse shape than it is now. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Out of a voter turnout of 50.3%, 60.3% of voters in Ireland approved the European Union Fiscal Treaty.

LyrArc Article Gist
Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union party suffered a major defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia. Exit polls show the SPD Social Democrats party winning 38.9% of the vote, increasing its vote by 4.4%. The CDU won only 26.3% of the vote, dropping 8.3% from the last election. The SPD state premier, Hannelore Kraft, proved to be a popular campaigner. Her opponent Mr Rottgen made debt-financed spending an issue and told voters this was a referendum on Merkel's policies for Europe. Ms. Kraft said after the win: "We made people the central focus again." This has overtones of the victory of Francois Hollande in France, a few days ago, and shows a fundamental shift in Europe. German media described it as debacle for the conservatives considering the size of the margin between SPD and CDU. The Greens secured 11.6% of the votes and this will enable Ms. Kraft to govern easily compared to an earlier minority government she led. This state is the largest in Germany, with one of every five Germans living here, with the capital in Dusseldorf. The Pirates party secured 7.8% of the vote, and the Free Democrats staging a recovery with 8.3% of the vote under a popular young leader Christian Lindner. Upto this point the SPD lacked an effective leader to challenge Merkel. The sense now is that Ms. Kraft will emerge as the SPD's challenger to Merkel in elections in 2013, or earlier. French president Hollande goes to Berlin on May 16, 2012, and the SPD win is expected to strengthen his position in negotiations....

LyrArc Article Gist
Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, has a three part proposal for tackling the "too big to fail" problem and concentration of 70% of the U.S. banking assets in a few banks. It calls for Market Discipline to be exercized in a way that the Dodd-Frank legislation fails to do. This is to be accomplished by having deposit insurance and the Fed's discount window apply only to traditional commercial banks, not the nonbank affiliates and parent holding companies. Customers, creditors and counterparties of all nonbank affiliates and the parent holding companies would be asked to sign a disclosure accepting that there is no government guarantee. In addition the largest financial holding companies would be restructured so that all their corporate entities would fall under a speedy bankruptcy process. Fisher does not clarify how he would do this restructuring. The Fisher idea come after changes in the banking industry through internal management restructuring following trading losses, legal settlements and the passage of a Swiss referendum called the Minder Initiative on compensation. Fisher suggests the U.S. Fed and regulatory authorites in other countries should push for further restructuring and calls for action beyond the limited results from 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. He is critical of Dodd-Frank's often ambiguous and lengthy worded legislation- 849 pages for the law and 9000 pages for the regulations written to implement the law. Fisher emphasizes the point that its hard to implement a law and enforce rules when its not clear and is difficult to understand....

LyrArc Article Gist
Catalan leader Puigdemont moves from Girona to Marseille and onto Belgium, as he and other Catalan separatist leaders flee Spain. The Washington Post points to the many missteps in the efforts of separatist leaders. The leader of the Catalan Socialist Party which is pro-union says it was a mistake to declare independence. The process of declaring independence is now seen as undertaken hastily without considering the economic consequences, as companies headquartered in Barcelona are moving outside Catalonia, and economic uncertainty is likely to hurt Spain and Catalonia.