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The shift of offshore manufacturing jobs from China to Mexico in 2014-2015.

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Companies in retail, construction  entertainment sectors made layoffs in the first 2 years of the pandemic. White collar workers worked remotely and were not affected that much. In 2023 the layoffs are now affecting professionals and white collar workers. White collar workers are also paid more which creates savings for companies when they layoff higher paid professionals who do not perform critical tasks. In manufacturing and blue collar worker industries there are not many layoffs because companies are hoarding these workers as there are worker shortages. Many workers retired in manufacturing and blue collar leading to shortages in these sectors. Because this is not typical in the layoffs and hiring cycles seen previous to the pandemic this is an unusual situation.

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Us stock market gains of 24% in 2023 are seen as a surprise after fears of Fed tightening leading to a downturn. Instead inflation has come down and with government investment in infrastructure and bringing factories back to the US, boosting US manufacturing, the US is building a stronger economy. A related WSJ article has graphs that show over 50% of US households owning stocks so that the gains in stocks since 2020 are now more widely shared in the US population. Along with wage gains and bringing down the cost of living and moderating housing costs it sets the stage for a recovery of America from the free market experiments that followed after Reagan leading to the 2009 financial crisis, neglect of manufacturing and shipping of factories overseas.

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Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers in Janesville, Wisconsin. Harris said about the former president-

He promised to bring back American jobs and then went on as president to lose 200,000 manufacturing jobs with closure of 9 manufacturing plants.

“Nobody understands better than a union member that as Americans we all rise or fall together." Harris promised to in the the first days of her presidency to issue an executive order eliminating “unnecessary” degree requirements for federal jobs and  to get private sector employers to do this.

"He is a disaster for American workers. He is an existential threat to the American Labor Movement."

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The US economy is showing a stronger services sector in 2023 as demand for goods slows, manufacturing slows, and there is more spending on travel, leisure and in hospitality sectors. This is shown by recent S&P Global Surveys.

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Ford's higher EV manufacturing costs than GM, and the $1.2 billion of warranty repair costs from gasoline powered vehicles hurt its bottom line in 2023. Ford says it lost $37,000 on each electric vehicle in third quarter 2023.

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Peter Navarro Trade Adviser to US president DJT says the problem with Germany and Japan is about finished cars, but also about their strategic control of powertrain manufacturing − the engine, transmission and drivetrain components that are at the heart  of a vehicle. These components not only give the highest profit margins, they provide the highest paying manufacturing jobs. The result of their domination of engines as only 20% of the engines in cars made in the US are made in America, the rest 80% are imported from Germany, Austria, Japan and South Korea, is that the US is consigned to doing low wage labor assembly in this script written by foreign manufacturers. He calls this the gut punch from VW, Benz and BMW, from Toyota, Subaru and Hyundai.  Navarro says- "This isn’t protectionism. It’s restoration. Restoration of full-spectrum manufacturing, from bolt to body. Restoration of high-wage, high-skill jobs. And restoration of America’s arsenal of democracy. Let the restoration begin."   ...

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Alan Mulally talks to Charlie Rose about cost competitiveness, negotiations with the UAW, creating jobs, and the repayment of $20 billion of the $23.5 billion borrowed in 2006. Mullaly points out that 70% of R&D is connected with design and manufacturing- all the technology that goes into designing and building and the associated R&D.

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Andy Kessler looks at the prospects for China's effort to dominate the market for advanced chips used in everyday devices, just as it did in solar panels and electric vehicle batteries.  He says Apple leaves US manufacturing technologies at a disadvantage by securing its M1 processor chip from Taiwan's TSMC. Intel has fallen behind in 10 nanometer chips and will need a few years says Kessler.  Kessler says Chinese threat to invade Taiwan which has made the US and the EU take a firmer stand on Ukraine poses a danger to TSMC which has 5 fabs or factories in just 1 science Park- Hsinchu Science Park. This poses a question is it safe to concentrate about 92% of the world's semiconductor production in one place Taiwan so close to the mainland of China? And knowing sit tight taking no action? Google's last chairman Eric Schmidt asks this question in the WSJ and calls for a new investments in the US to manufacture advanced semiconductors and other semiconductors for everyday use so that the US national security is protected. Even the $50 billion that is in Congressional legislation has yet to be approved by the US Congress, says Schmidt, showing that US Congress is not moving quickly to address this problem. South Korea and Taiwan including TSMC need to be told to make a large part of the semiconductors in the US and other locations such as India to diversify production. 92% of world semiconductors made in Taiwan that could be taken out with a few missiles, is no way to diversify manufacturing, when manufacturing can be done in India or other parts of the world with lower costs and with needed engineering manpower. ...

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China's parliament meets this week for opening sessions. Premier Li Qiang tells parliament that China will set a 5% growth target. Facing deflation, implosion of the property sector, and declining manufacturing will make it difficult to achieve this target. 

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Shift of Toyota Highlander hybrid production from Japan to the U.S. with a $400 million investment in the Princeton, Indiana manufacturing plant. The Princeton plant will make 50,000 of the Highlander hybrid vehicles a year.

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These are key provisions in the biggest climate change bill in history- Tax credits that last for over a decade for zero carbon plants- these tax credits go to companies that build new sources of emissions free electricity, for wind turbines, solar panels, battery storage, geo thermal plants. Tax credits also for new technologies that capture and bury carbon dioxide from natural gas plants and industrial facilities before it escapes into the atmosphere and heats the planet. This technology is rarely used because of high costs. Incentives for electric vehicles- It extends a tax credit of $7500 for new electric vehicles. It adds a $4000 tax credit for used electric vehicles. Tax credit goes only to people earning $150,000 a year (300,000 for joint filers) for new EV's and $75,000 (150,000 for joint filers) for used EV's. Help for people to lower energy costs - $9 billion in rebates for Americans installing energy efficient electrical appliances. And a decade of tax credits for Americans installing rooftop solar, heat pumps, water heaters and electric HVAC, or electric heating, air conditioning and ventilation technologies. Investments in Domestic Manufacturing- $60 billion for investments in clean energy manufacturing in the US. This includes $30 billion for production tax credits for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and critical minerals processing. $10 billion in investment tax credits to build manufacturing facilities for electric cars and renewable energy technologies. This action is to halt the shifting of clean energy manufacturing overseas to China. $27 billion towards a green bank that would finance clean energy projects in disadvantaged communities. Cracking down on Methane- the bill places a fine on methane gas emissions from oil and gas wells and pipelines and other infrastructure. Fees of $900 per metric ton in 2024 and $1500 a metric ton in 2026 when it exceeds federally set limits.    ...

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IHS Inc. estimates show the cost of components to manufacture the U.S. version of the Samsung Galaxy S 4 is about $237 compared to $217 for a 32 gigabyte iPhone 5 with a smaller and less costly display screen. Samsung's manufacturing capabilities give it an advantage against competitors in the smartphone market.

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Labor conditions in Chinese factories that supply Walmart, Disney, Dell and other companies and in China's manufacturing in general.

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Claire Cain Miller of NYT looks at how Americans feel about the economy. It is shaped mainly by the cost of living crisis. Over half of Americans feel housing is unaffordable. And most Americans see prices as way too high at retail stores, for food and clothing, and do not see that president Biden has helped increase their wages through his support for the labor movement. Another aspect of this is that even though Biden has brought changes in wages and reduced inflation to 2-3% from 10%, the American people are feeling the effects of three decades of neglect of infrastructure, public services, and manufacturing under prevailing free market economic theory; that caused the disruption in living standards with the 2009 financial crisis, and the shift of manufacturing to China that devastated whole communities.

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If the wording in the Pew Research Survey were to include that only the government can tackle huge problems in climate change, infrastructure, and manufacturing, the over 50% of Americans that support government taking on these responsibilities might just as well be closer to 60-70 percent. The tide is turning as the whole culture since Reagan and the key adopters of Reagan's theory  successive Democratic administrations of Clinton and Obama is being reversed- Democrats and Independents supporting the change to get government to tackle these problems is up 15 percentage points. Another shift is the young people who are filled with frustration by the lack of government taking on a bigger role to solve problems such as climate change, manufacturing jobs in US, infrastructure rebuilding that only the government can do. 

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Greg Ip in the WSJ says India is shifting towards  becoming an important partner with the US and the European Union in trade under the Modi government. This report reflects the situation upto 2021 and the changes in Indian and American perceptions during the pandemic. It does not reflect the rapidly evolving situation under president Biden.US president Biden and Jake Sullivan National Security Advisor see rapidly expanding US trade and investment in India. The recent Raisina Dialogue  brings together 26 countries- named after Raisina Hill in New Delhi where India's administration is located- in dialogue with Indian leaders. Finance Minister Sitharaman in an interview at Raisina Dialogue stated that Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, was with her during a G-20 meeting, and Yellen called for friendshoring- foreign investment in democracies that respect the rule of law and provide the right conditions for investment. The right conditions are now being created in India, including infrastructure and logistics, trade practices, and assistance to foreign companies, to invest in Indian manufacturing. The conditions are being created for shifting significant number of manufacturing facilities to India in a complete redesign of the supply chain. A look at the period 1950-2015 in US-EU India relations says little of the newly evolving situation in trade in the way that looking at the US-EU China relations 1950-1990 during the Cold War would tell one little about how that relationship evolved in trade after 1990 in the 1990-2019 period for massive trade with China. The pandemic and the inflation from existing supply chain bottlenecks has led to a realization in US-EU that the existing concentration of manufacturing in one country  was a mistake and is a serious problem that needs correction.  This means an acceleration in the effort to build rapidly over the next 5-10 years a strong US-EU manufacturing presence in India for advanced technologies. India under prime minister Modi is creating the infrastructure and logistics for this to happen with large domestic investment, the help of Denmark's Maersk in port logistics, and from other countries.  Fo India manufacturing and infrastructure building is the only way to create the jobs needed to meet the aspirations of its young population. For the US-EU the redesign of the supply chain is the highest priority to cut inflation, remove potential bottlenecks, and provide a stable supply chain.    ...

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OECD studies and views of experts show India's current inflexible labor laws hurt manufacturing workers by denying workers the benefits that would come from larger enterprises in a formal economy, and reducing job growth. Labor laws currently in place provide inducement to keep companies small, with less than 100 workers, the threshold at which labor laws on hiring and letting go of employees are enforced. The Modi government is implementing reforms as pilot programs in states where it is running the state government. Rajasthan is being used for this pilot overhaul of labor laws to attract manufacturing investment.The idea is to create competition between states to attract investment as one state gains in employment growth and good jobs.

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Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, says Poland has achieved a remarkable transformation over 25 years with steady growth of 4% year after year. The bright spot is manufacturing. For emerging nations the average percentage of GDP from manufacturing exports is 22%. Poland is at 33 percent of GDP for manufacturing exports. Countries dependent on commodity exports such as Argentina, Brazil, Russia, lack this steady growth from a manufacturing base and are less likely to cross the line of $15,000 of GDP per person that qualifies for it to be called an "advanced economy" for the IMF. South Korea, the Czech Republic and Poland are some of the countries that have benefited from manufacturing exports. Poland's wages are one third of that in Germany and its currency is cheap, giving it an advantage as an export hub for German companies. Germany is the main destination for exports and the German automobile industry uses the Czech Republic and Poland as export hubs. Poland's and Czech Republic's geographical location near Germany with a highly educated population makes it attractive for German companies. Poland has gone from $2300 per capita GDP to about $13,000 in 25 years according to the IMF, and is likely to be the next country to make it to advanced economy status by 2020, says Sharma. It is important not to run up debt, to manage finances carefully, and to maintain steady growth not growth in spurts interrupted by declines, and have a manufacturing base, says Sharma.  ...

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Current responses to China's different posture in international relations obscure the huge investments made by US and European Union business in China that lead to about $1 trillion in exports from China to US and EU in 2021. This could not happen without the hyper investment in China by business in the US and EU that not only neglected manufacturing technologies in the home country but did this on a immense scale that would end up shipping almost the whole of the manufacturing supply chains to China from the US and EU. Done as a carefully planned shift of some manufacturing operations it could have benefitted both China and the US and EU. In what way was this hyper move in pace and scale damaging? China's water, air and land was contaminated at a rapid pace never before seen in history, seen as early as 2005. And the hyper shift by 2015 and in 2020 is now showing the severe effects of climate change with droughts, floods and fires all over the world. The German Environment Ministry today counts the cost at 90 times in the use of coal and fossil fuels over time. On the scale that this massive and fast shift was done of manufacturing to China even more so- a hugely imprudent response of US and EU business management and executives. Instead of tackling and confronting head on the challenging problems of quality control and cost in the 1990's through 2000 and beyond at home, management at Apple and other companies simply shifted all manufacturing to China. The other ill effect of the imprudent response of American business was in the massive and wholesale shift of supply chain to China by offshoring practically the entire manufacturing base. It was to lead to the massive losses that workers, families  and communities in the US and EU that countries could not cope with as it moved on an accelerated hyper level and pace. The result was to lead to intense criticism of China and a level of rancor that has poisoned the relations with China. Some of this counsel to China was given to leaders of the Communist party who had little knowledge of American capitalism operating within constraints of social democracy in 1990. Some of that counsel was self interested given by investment banks to Chinese officials- investment bankers that have now disappeared from view- who themselves lacked an understanding of the social constraints of American and European democracies. It is that rancor that is now leading to China and the US disconnecting the supply chains leading to questions one is certain within China about how this will affect unemployment in China in the years to come. The pandemic simply accelerated this realization on both sides of this untenable situation. Still a trillion dollars in exports are taking place even as the political situation is now totally adrift -as the situation in Taiwan in August 2022 shows- the political and trading relationships at opposite ends and seemingly at war with each other. ...

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The world is too dependent on one semiconductor manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, TSMC. Companies in Taiwan make 65% of the dollar value of the world's chips. How did this happen? It poses a threat to the US and to the world economy. Finally the US is making an effort to correct this. The European Union already has plans to produce 20% of the world's next generation chips in 2030. Intel plans $20 billion investment for 2 chip factories in the US. Only months earlier this report in WSJ says Intel president Bob Swan was giving more contracts to TSMC for next generation chips.  It shows how much the pandemic has changed views on supply chain security. Intel ousted Mr. Swan for missteps in relying too much on TSMC as this dangerous policy became evident during the pandemic. Such was the culture that existed before the pandemic on supply chains, on investment allocation, and related issues. As a single semiconductor factory can cost $20 billion, the Biden administration is getting involved with Congress to rebuild America's semiconductor industry and independent supply chain. TSMC is built on subsidies from Taiwan government. Morris Chang founded TSMC in 1987 after studying at MIT and working 30 years at Texas Instruments. At founding half of the investment for TSMC came from Taiwan government. The US to rebuild will require the government to support the chip industry in many ways. In this sense the US manufacturers who ceded manufacturing to TSMC were shortsighted- AMD, Intel, Qualcomm Apple. They without realizing it built the model on which TSMC would thrive and invest and grow. Take just one example- to meet Apple's first order TSMC spent $9 billion with 6000 people working round the clock to build a factory in 11 months. Yes Apple did not have to worry about chip manufacturing and quality by contracting it out. Yet over the years it was ceding the manufacture of the most important chips in its products to an exclusive supplier. It was also ceding away the technologies that went with it. Americans were told not to care by the best universities and professors, by economic departments and scientific educational institutions for two decades leading to the situating facing America today. Meanwhile Taiwan is supporting its chip industry even further as it relies on the chip industry to provide protection in its struggle to maintain its independence from China. A situation no American manufacturer understands or had planned to create, but is now left to the Biden administration and president Biden to solve. After twenty years of unchecked capital allocation and investments by the leaders of American manufacturing based on an inadequate and incomplete understanding of the role of manufacturing and manufacturing technologies in the life of America since its founding two hundred years ago, president Biden faces the task of restoring confidence in America. And this at the time of a pandemic that has taken hundreds of thousands of lives.      ...

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Changes that president Biden is making to make certain that students who took out a loan of $30,000 for college do not end up paying for two decades, and be still owing $60,000. WSJ explains that the original student loan law written decades ago does not take into account the realities of today as young people are forced into long repayment plans and still cannot complete payment. President Biden has stated that no student loan borrower would be expected to pay more than 5% of his or her income for student loan payments each month. This helps student borrowers across the country and makes college education affordable. Most Americans have failed to realize the importance of higher education and its affordability for the US economy, the US ability to compete with China, India and the EU, and the damage done to US education by outdated laws. The general failure to support education and its affordability has come at a great cost to the US economy and its strength in the world, similar to the damage done by the neglect of manufacturing and communities across America that depend on good manufacturing jobs. The failures of laissez faire theory under Reagan and it becoming part of exiting culture leading to lack of government support for education, manufacturing, and infrastructure has weakened America and neglected communities across the country. ...

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WSJ on Intel CEO Lip Bu-Tan and ties to Chinese chip making since 2001 and as an investor through investment firm Walden. Senator Tom Cotton, chair of Intelligence Committee in Senate, questions ties of the new Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan to China. DJT calls for a new CEO, saying there is no other solution that Tan should resign immediately. Under the Biden Administration and the previous CEO Pat Gelsinger the US government offered $8 billion in aid to Intel to maintain it's leadership in chip making technologies. Gelsinger was ousted by the Board last year after Intel's recovery effort was taking time and replaced with Lip-Bu Tan who was an early investor in Chinese chip makers. There are questions why the acting CEO Yeary is cited in WSJ reports to have considered offering Intel's chip making manufacturing for sale to TSMC to exit manufacturing, after the help Intel had gained of $8 billion from Biden to become the dominant maker of advanced chips in the US- recovering a position lost to TSMC when the US had invented the computer chip. Under DJT that is still the American goal under MAGA.   ...

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In a bold decision that shows courage and foresight president Biden lifts IP protection for Covid 19 vaccine patents of American companies such as Pfizer, Moderna, J&J and Novavax. This has huge implications for vaccination supplies for countries such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, that are hard hit by the pandemic as well as the rest of the world. It will open up manufacturing additional vaccine supplies in countries as diverse as France and India, that can ramp up quickly because of already established pharmaceutical bases.

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This report in DW.com shows how the rebuilding of the European Union supply chain is happening with shift of manufacturing from China to Vietnam and India. This report looks at how Danish companies are investing in Vietnam. EU trade with Vietnam is now $64 billion.